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1. Observing many researchers using the same data and hypothesis reveals a hidden universe of uncertainty

Author

Breznau, Nate, Rinke, Eike Mark, Wuttke, Alexander, Nguyen, Hung H. V., Adem, Muna, Adriaans, Jule, Alvarez-Benjumea, Amalia, Andersen, Henrik K., Auer, Daniel, Azevedo, Flavio, Bahnsen, Oke, Balzer, Dave, Bauer, Gerrit, Bauer, Paul C., Baumann, Markus, Baute, Sharon, Benoit, Verena, Bernauer, Julian, Berning, Carl, Berthold, Anna, Bethke, Felix S., Biegert, Thomas, Blinzler, Katharina, Blumenberg, Johannes N., Bobzien, Licia, Bohman, Andrea, Bol, Thijs, Bostic, Amie, Brzozowska, Zuzanna, Burgdorf, Katharina, Burger, Kaspar, Busch, Kathrin B., Carlos-Castillo, Juan, Chan, Nathan, Christmann, Pablo, Connelly, Roxanne, Czymara, Christian S., Damian, Elena, Ecker, Alejandro, Edelmann, Achim, Eger, Maureen A., Ellerbrock, Simon, Forke, Anna, Forster, Andrea, Gaasendam, Chris, Gavras, Konstantin, Gayle, Vernon, Gessler, Theresa, Gnambs, Timo, Godefroidt, Amélie, Grömping, Max, Groß, Martin, Gruber, Stefan, Gummer, Tobias, Hadjar, Andreas, Heisig, Jan Paul, Hellmeier, Sebastian, Heyne, Stefanie, Hirsch, Magdalena, Hjerm, Mikael, Hochman, Oshrat, Hövermann, Andreas, Hunger, Sophia, Hunkler, Christian, Huth, Nora, Ignácz, Zsófia S., Jacobs, Laura, Jacobsen, Jannes, Jaeger, Bastian, Jungkunz, Sebastian, Jungmann, Nils, Kauff, Mathias, Kleinert, Manuel, Klinger, Julia, Kolb, Jan-Philipp, Kołczyńska, Marta, Kuk, John, Kunißen, Katharina, Sinatra, Dafina Kurti, Langenkamp, Alexander, Lersch, Philipp M., Löbel, Lea-Maria, Lutscher, Philipp, Mader, Matthias, Madia, Joan E., Malancu, Natalia, Maldonado, Luis, Marahrens, Helge, Martin, Nicole, Martinez, Paul, Mayerl, Jochen, Mayorga, Oscar J., McManus, Patricia, McWagner, Kyle, Meeusen, Cecil, Meierrieks, Daniel, Mellon, Jonathan, Merhout, Friedolin, Merk, Samuel, Meyer, Daniel, Micheli, Leticia, Mijs, Jonathan, Moya, Cristóbal, Neunhoeffer, Marcel, Nüst, Daniel, Nygård, Olav, Ochsenfeld, Fabian, Otte, Gunnar, Pechenkina, Anna O., Prosser, Christopher, Raes, Louis, Ralston, Kevin, Ramos, Miguel R., Roets, Arne, Rogers, Jonathan, Ropers, Guido, Samuel, Robin, Sand, Gregor, Schachter, Ariela, Schaeffer, Merlin, Schieferdecker, David, Schlueter, Elmar, Schmidt, Regine, Schmidt, Katja M., Schmidt-Catran, Alexander, Schmiedeberg, Claudia, Schneider, Jürgen, Schoonvelde, Martijn, Schulte-Cloos, Julia, Schumann, Sandy, Schunck, Reinhard, Schupp, Jürgen, Seuring, Julian, Silber, Henning, Sleegers, Willem, Sonntag, Nico, Staudt, Alexander, Steiber, Nadia, Steiner, Nils, Sternberg, Sebastian, Stiers, Dieter, Stojmenovska, Dragana, Storz, Nora, Striessnig, Erich, Stroppe, Anne-Kathrin, Teltemann, Janna, Tibajev, Andrey, Tung, Brian, Vagni, Giacomo, Van Assche, Jasper, van der Linden, Meta, van der Noll, Jolanda, Van Hootegem, Arno, Vogtenhuber, Stefan, Voicu, Bogdan, Wagemans, Fieke, Wehl, Nadja, Werner, Hannah, Wiernik, Brenton M., Winter, Fabian, Wolf, Christof, Yamada, Yuki, Zhang, Nan, Ziller, Conrad, Zins, Stefan, and Żółtak, Tomasz

Published
2022

2. How Many Replicators Does It Take to Achieve Reliability? Investigating Researcher Variability in a Crowdsourced Replication

Author

Breznau, Nate, Rinke, Eike Mark, Wuttke, Alexander, Nguyen, Hung H. V., Adem, Muna, Adriaans, Jule, Akdeniz, Esra, Alvarez-Benjumea, Amalia, Andersen, Henrik Kenneth, Auer, Daniel, Azevedo, Flavio, Bahnsen, Oke, Bai, Ling, Balzer, Dave, Bauer, Gerrit, Bauer, Paul C., Baumann, Markus, Baute, Sharon, Benoit, Verena, Bernauer, Julian, Berning, Carl, Berthold, Anna, Bethke, Felix, Biegert, Thomas, Blinzler, Katharina, Blumenberg, Johannes, Bobzien, Licia, Bohman, Andrea, Bol, Thijs, Bostic, Amie, Brzozowska, Zuzanna, Burgdorf, Katharina, Burger, Kaspar, Busch, Kathrin, Castillo, Juan Carlos, Chan, Nathan, Christmann, Pablo, Connelly, Roxanne, Czymara, Christian S., Damian, Elena, Rooij, Eline De, Ecker, Alejandro, Edelmann, Achim, Eder, Christina, Eger, Maureen A., Ellerbrock, Simon, Forke, Anna, Forster, Andrea, Freire, Danilo, Gaasendam, Chris, Gavras, Konstantin, Gayle, Vernon, Gessler, Theresa, Gnambs, Timo, Godefroidt, Amélie, Grömping, Max, Groß, Martin, Gruber, Stefan, Gummer, Tobias, Hadjar, Andreas, Halbherr, Verena, Heisig, Jan Paul, Hellmeier, Sebastian, Heyne, Stefanie, Hirsch, Magdalena, Hjerm, Mikael, Hochman, Oshrat, Höffler, Jan H., Hövermann, Andreas, Hunger, Sophia, Hunkler, Christian, Huth, Nora, Ignacz, Zsofia, Israel, Sabine, Jacobs, Laura, Jacobsen, Jannes, Jaeger, Bastian, Jungkunz, Sebastian, Jungmann, Nils, Kanjana, Jennifer, Kauff, Mathias, Khan, Salman, Khatua, Sayak, Kleinert, Manuel, Klinger, Julia, Kolb, Jan-Philipp, Kołczyńska, Marta, Kuk, John Seungmin, Kunißen, Katharina, Sinatra, Dafina Kurti, Greinert, Alexander, C. Lee, Robin, Lersch, Philipp M., Liu, David, Löbel, Lea-Maria, Lutscher, Philipp, Mader, Matthias, Madia, Joan, Malancu, Natalia, Maldonado, Luis, Marahrens, Helge, Martin, Nicole, Martinez, Paul, Mayerl, Jochen, Mayorga, Oscar Jose, McDonnell, Robert Myles, McManus, Patricia, Wagner, Kyle, Meeusen, Cecil, Meierrieks, Daniel, Mellon, Jonathan, Merhout, Friedolin, Merk, Samuel, Meyer, Daniel, Micheli, Leticia, Mijs, Jonathan J. B., Moya, Cristóbal, Neunhoeffer, Marcel, Nüst, Daniel, Nygård, Olav, Ochsenfeld, Fabian, Otte, Gunnar, Pechenkina, Anna, Pickup, Mark, Prosser, Christopher, Raes, Louis, Ralston, Kevin, Ramos, Miguel, Reichert, Frank, Roets, Arne, Rogers, Jonathan, Ropers, Guido, Samuel, Robin, Sand, Gregor, Petrarca, Constanza Sanhueza, Schachter, Ariela, Schaeffer, Merlin, Schieferdecker, David, Schlueter, Elmar, Schmidt, Katja, Schmidt, Regine, Schmidt-Catran, Alexander, Schmiedeberg, Claudia, Schneider, Jürgen, Schoonvelde, Martijn, Schulte-Cloos, Julia, Schumann, Sandy, Schunck, Reinhard, Schupp, Jürgen, Seuring, Julian, Silber, Henning, Sleegers, Willem, Sonntag, Nico, Staudt, Alexander, Steiber, Nadia, Steiner, Nils, Sternberg, Sebastian, Stojmenovska, Dragana, Storz, Nora, Striessnig, Erich, Stroppe, Anne-Kathrin, Suchow, Jordan W., Teltemann, Janna, Tibajev, Andrey, Tung, Brian B., Vagni, Giacomo, Assche, Jasper Van, Linden, Meta Van Der, Noll, Jolanda Van Der, Hootegem, Arno Van, Vogtenhuber, Stefan, Voicu, Bogdan, Wagemans, Fieke, Wehl, Nadja, Werner, Hannah, Wiernik, Brenton M., Winter, Fabian, Wolf, Christof, Wu, Cary, Yamada, Yuki, Zakula, Björn, Zhang, Nan, Ziller, Conrad, Zins, Stefan, Żółtak, Tomasz, Breznau, Nate, Rinke, Eike Mark, Wuttke, Alexander, Nguyen, Hung H. V., Adem, Muna, Adriaans, Jule, Akdeniz, Esra, Alvarez-Benjumea, Amalia, Andersen, Henrik Kenneth, Auer, Daniel, Azevedo, Flavio, Bahnsen, Oke, Bai, Ling, Balzer, Dave, Bauer, Gerrit, Bauer, Paul C., Baumann, Markus, Baute, Sharon, Benoit, Verena, Bernauer, Julian, Berning, Carl, Berthold, Anna, Bethke, Felix, Biegert, Thomas, Blinzler, Katharina, Blumenberg, Johannes, Bobzien, Licia, Bohman, Andrea, Bol, Thijs, Bostic, Amie, Brzozowska, Zuzanna, Burgdorf, Katharina, Burger, Kaspar, Busch, Kathrin, Castillo, Juan Carlos, Chan, Nathan, Christmann, Pablo, Connelly, Roxanne, Czymara, Christian S., Damian, Elena, Rooij, Eline De, Ecker, Alejandro, Edelmann, Achim, Eder, Christina, Eger, Maureen A., Ellerbrock, Simon, Forke, Anna, Forster, Andrea, Freire, Danilo, Gaasendam, Chris, Gavras, Konstantin, Gayle, Vernon, Gessler, Theresa, Gnambs, Timo, Godefroidt, Amélie, Grömping, Max, Groß, Martin, Gruber, Stefan, Gummer, Tobias, Hadjar, Andreas, Halbherr, Verena, Heisig, Jan Paul, Hellmeier, Sebastian, Heyne, Stefanie, Hirsch, Magdalena, Hjerm, Mikael, Hochman, Oshrat, Höffler, Jan H., Hövermann, Andreas, Hunger, Sophia, Hunkler, Christian, Huth, Nora, Ignacz, Zsofia, Israel, Sabine, Jacobs, Laura, Jacobsen, Jannes, Jaeger, Bastian, Jungkunz, Sebastian, Jungmann, Nils, Kanjana, Jennifer, Kauff, Mathias, Khan, Salman, Khatua, Sayak, Kleinert, Manuel, Klinger, Julia, Kolb, Jan-Philipp, Kołczyńska, Marta, Kuk, John Seungmin, Kunißen, Katharina, Sinatra, Dafina Kurti, Greinert, Alexander, C. Lee, Robin, Lersch, Philipp M., Liu, David, Löbel, Lea-Maria, Lutscher, Philipp, Mader, Matthias, Madia, Joan, Malancu, Natalia, Maldonado, Luis, Marahrens, Helge, Martin, Nicole, Martinez, Paul, Mayerl, Jochen, Mayorga, Oscar Jose, McDonnell, Robert Myles, McManus, Patricia, Wagner, Kyle, Meeusen, Cecil, Meierrieks, Daniel, Mellon, Jonathan, Merhout, Friedolin, Merk, Samuel, Meyer, Daniel, Micheli, Leticia, Mijs, Jonathan J. B., Moya, Cristóbal, Neunhoeffer, Marcel, Nüst, Daniel, Nygård, Olav, Ochsenfeld, Fabian, Otte, Gunnar, Pechenkina, Anna, Pickup, Mark, Prosser, Christopher, Raes, Louis, Ralston, Kevin, Ramos, Miguel, Reichert, Frank, Roets, Arne, Rogers, Jonathan, Ropers, Guido, Samuel, Robin, Sand, Gregor, Petrarca, Constanza Sanhueza, Schachter, Ariela, Schaeffer, Merlin, Schieferdecker, David, Schlueter, Elmar, Schmidt, Katja, Schmidt, Regine, Schmidt-Catran, Alexander, Schmiedeberg, Claudia, Schneider, Jürgen, Schoonvelde, Martijn, Schulte-Cloos, Julia, Schumann, Sandy, Schunck, Reinhard, Schupp, Jürgen, Seuring, Julian, Silber, Henning, Sleegers, Willem, Sonntag, Nico, Staudt, Alexander, Steiber, Nadia, Steiner, Nils, Sternberg, Sebastian, Stojmenovska, Dragana, Storz, Nora, Striessnig, Erich, Stroppe, Anne-Kathrin, Suchow, Jordan W., Teltemann, Janna, Tibajev, Andrey, Tung, Brian B., Vagni, Giacomo, Assche, Jasper Van, Linden, Meta Van Der, Noll, Jolanda Van Der, Hootegem, Arno Van, Vogtenhuber, Stefan, Voicu, Bogdan, Wagemans, Fieke, Wehl, Nadja, Werner, Hannah, Wiernik, Brenton M., Winter, Fabian, Wolf, Christof, Wu, Cary, Yamada, Yuki, Zakula, Björn, Zhang, Nan, Ziller, Conrad, Zins, Stefan, and Żółtak, Tomasz

Abstract

The paper reports findings from a crowdsourced replication. Eighty-four replicator teams attempted to verify results reported in an original study by running the same models with the same data. The replication involved an experimental condition. A “transparent” group received the original study and code, and an “opaque” group received the same underlying study but with only a methods section and description of the regression coefficients without size or significance, and no code. The transparent group mostly verified the original study (95.5%), while the opaque group had less success (89.4%). Qualitative investigation of the replicators’ workflows reveals many causes of non-verification. Two categories of these causes are hypothesized, routine and non-routine. After correcting non-routine errors in the research process to ensure that the results reflect a level of quality that should be present in ‘real-world’ research, the rate of verification was 96.1 in the transparent group and 92.4 in the opaque group. Two conclusions follow: (1) Although high, the verification rate suggests that it would take a minimum of three replicators per study to achieve replication reliability of at least 95 confidence assuming ecological validity in this controlled setting, and (2) like any type of scientific research, replication is prone to errors that derive from routine and undeliberate actions in the research process. The latter suggests that idiosyncratic researcher variability might provide a key to understanding part of the “reliability crisis” in social and behavioral science and is a reminder of the importance of transparent and well documented workflows.

Published
2021

3. Observing Many Researchers Using the Same Data and Hypothesis Reveals a Hidden Universe of Uncertainty

Author

Breznau, Nate, Rinke, Eike Mark, Wuttke, Alexander, Adem, Muna, Adriaans, Jule, Alvarez-Benjumea, Amalia, Andersen, Henrik Kenneth, Auer, Daniel, Azevedo, Flavio, Bahnsen, Oke, Balzer, Dave, Bauer, Gerrit, Bauer, Paul C., Baumann, Markus, Baute, Sharon, Benoit, Verena, Bernauer, Julian, Berning, Carl, Berthold, Anna, Bethke, Felix, Biegert, Thomas, Blinzler, Katharina, Blumenberg, Johannes, Bobzien, Licia, Bohman, Andrea, Bol, Thijs, Bostic, Amie, Brzozowska, Zuzanna, Burgdorf, Katharina, Burger, Kaspar, Busch, Kathrin, Castillo, Juan Carlos, Chan, Nathan, Christmann, Pablo, Connelly, Roxanne, Czymara, Christian S., Damian, Elena, Ecker, Alejandro, Edelmann, Achim, Eger, Maureen A., Ellerbrock, Simon, Forke, Anna, Forster, Andrea, Gaasendam, Chris, Gavras, Konstantin, Gayle, Vernon, Gessler, Theresa, Gnambs, Timo, Godefroidt, Amélie, Grömping, Max, Groß, Martin, Gruber, Stefan, Gummer, Tobias, Hadjar, Andreas, Heisig, Jan Paul, Hellmeier, Sebastian, Heyne, Stefanie, Hirsch, Magdalena, Hjerm, Mikael, Hochman, Oshrat, Hövermann, Andreas, Hunger, Sophia, Hunkler, Christian, Huth, Nora, Ignacz, Zsofia, Jacobs, Laura, Jacobsen, Jannes, Jaeger, Bastian, Jungkunz, Sebastian, Jungmann, Nils, Kauff, Mathias, Kleinert, Manuel, Klinger, Julia, Kolb, Jan-Philipp, Kołczyńska, Marta, Kuk, John Seungmin, Kunißen, Katharina, Sinatra, Dafina Kurti, Greinert, Alexander, Lersch, Philipp M., Löbel, Lea-Maria, Lutscher, Philipp, Mader, Matthias, Madia, Joan, Malancu, Natalia, Maldonado, Luis, Marahrens, Helge, Martin, Nicole, Martinez, Paul, Mayerl, Jochen, Mayorga, Oscar Jose, McManus, Patricia, Wagner, Kyle, Meeusen, Cecil, Meierrieks, Daniel, Mellon, Jonathan, Merhout, Friedolin, Merk, Samuel, Meyer, Daniel, Micheli, Leticia, Mijs, Jonathan J. B., Moya, Cristóbal, Neunhoeffer, Marcel, Nüst, Daniel, Nygård, Olav, Ochsenfeld, Fabian, Otte, Gunnar, Pechenkina, Anna, Prosser, Christopher, Raes, Louis, Ralston, Kevin, Ramos, Miguel, Roets, Arne, Rogers, Jonathan, Ropers, Guido, Samuel, Robin, Sand, Gregor, Schachter, Ariela, Schaeffer, Merlin, Schieferdecker, David, Schlueter, Elmar, Schmidt, Katja M., Schmidt, Regine, Schmidt-Catran, Alexander, Schmiedeberg, Claudia, Schneider, Jürgen, Schoonvelde, Martijn, Schulte-Cloos, Julia, Schumann, Sandy, Schunck, Reinhard, Schupp, Jürgen, Seuring, Julian, Silber, Henning, Sleegers, Willem, Sonntag, Nico, Staudt, Alexander, Steiber, Nadia, Steiner, Nils, Sternberg, Sebastian, Stiers, Dieter, Stojmenovska, Dragana, Storz, Nora, Striessnig, Erich, Stroppe, Anne-Kathrin, Teltemann, Janna, Tibajev, Andrey, Tung, Brian B., Vagni, Giacomo, Assche, Jasper Van, Linden, Meta Van Der, Noll, Jolanda Van Der, Hootegem, Arno Van, Vogtenhuber, Stefan, Voicu, Bogdan, Wagemans, Fieke, Wehl, Nadja, Werner, Hannah, Wiernik, Brenton M., Winter, Fabian, Wolf, Christof, Yamada, Yuki, Zhang, Nan, Ziller, Conrad, Zins, Stefan, Żółtak, Tomasz, Nguyen, Hung H. V., Breznau, Nate, Rinke, Eike Mark, Wuttke, Alexander, Adem, Muna, Adriaans, Jule, Alvarez-Benjumea, Amalia, Andersen, Henrik Kenneth, Auer, Daniel, Azevedo, Flavio, Bahnsen, Oke, Balzer, Dave, Bauer, Gerrit, Bauer, Paul C., Baumann, Markus, Baute, Sharon, Benoit, Verena, Bernauer, Julian, Berning, Carl, Berthold, Anna, Bethke, Felix, Biegert, Thomas, Blinzler, Katharina, Blumenberg, Johannes, Bobzien, Licia, Bohman, Andrea, Bol, Thijs, Bostic, Amie, Brzozowska, Zuzanna, Burgdorf, Katharina, Burger, Kaspar, Busch, Kathrin, Castillo, Juan Carlos, Chan, Nathan, Christmann, Pablo, Connelly, Roxanne, Czymara, Christian S., Damian, Elena, Ecker, Alejandro, Edelmann, Achim, Eger, Maureen A., Ellerbrock, Simon, Forke, Anna, Forster, Andrea, Gaasendam, Chris, Gavras, Konstantin, Gayle, Vernon, Gessler, Theresa, Gnambs, Timo, Godefroidt, Amélie, Grömping, Max, Groß, Martin, Gruber, Stefan, Gummer, Tobias, Hadjar, Andreas, Heisig, Jan Paul, Hellmeier, Sebastian, Heyne, Stefanie, Hirsch, Magdalena, Hjerm, Mikael, Hochman, Oshrat, Hövermann, Andreas, Hunger, Sophia, Hunkler, Christian, Huth, Nora, Ignacz, Zsofia, Jacobs, Laura, Jacobsen, Jannes, Jaeger, Bastian, Jungkunz, Sebastian, Jungmann, Nils, Kauff, Mathias, Kleinert, Manuel, Klinger, Julia, Kolb, Jan-Philipp, Kołczyńska, Marta, Kuk, John Seungmin, Kunißen, Katharina, Sinatra, Dafina Kurti, Greinert, Alexander, Lersch, Philipp M., Löbel, Lea-Maria, Lutscher, Philipp, Mader, Matthias, Madia, Joan, Malancu, Natalia, Maldonado, Luis, Marahrens, Helge, Martin, Nicole, Martinez, Paul, Mayerl, Jochen, Mayorga, Oscar Jose, McManus, Patricia, Wagner, Kyle, Meeusen, Cecil, Meierrieks, Daniel, Mellon, Jonathan, Merhout, Friedolin, Merk, Samuel, Meyer, Daniel, Micheli, Leticia, Mijs, Jonathan J. B., Moya, Cristóbal, Neunhoeffer, Marcel, Nüst, Daniel, Nygård, Olav, Ochsenfeld, Fabian, Otte, Gunnar, Pechenkina, Anna, Prosser, Christopher, Raes, Louis, Ralston, Kevin, Ramos, Miguel, Roets, Arne, Rogers, Jonathan, Ropers, Guido, Samuel, Robin, Sand, Gregor, Schachter, Ariela, Schaeffer, Merlin, Schieferdecker, David, Schlueter, Elmar, Schmidt, Katja M., Schmidt, Regine, Schmidt-Catran, Alexander, Schmiedeberg, Claudia, Schneider, Jürgen, Schoonvelde, Martijn, Schulte-Cloos, Julia, Schumann, Sandy, Schunck, Reinhard, Schupp, Jürgen, Seuring, Julian, Silber, Henning, Sleegers, Willem, Sonntag, Nico, Staudt, Alexander, Steiber, Nadia, Steiner, Nils, Sternberg, Sebastian, Stiers, Dieter, Stojmenovska, Dragana, Storz, Nora, Striessnig, Erich, Stroppe, Anne-Kathrin, Teltemann, Janna, Tibajev, Andrey, Tung, Brian B., Vagni, Giacomo, Assche, Jasper Van, Linden, Meta Van Der, Noll, Jolanda Van Der, Hootegem, Arno Van, Vogtenhuber, Stefan, Voicu, Bogdan, Wagemans, Fieke, Wehl, Nadja, Werner, Hannah, Wiernik, Brenton M., Winter, Fabian, Wolf, Christof, Yamada, Yuki, Zhang, Nan, Ziller, Conrad, Zins, Stefan, Żółtak, Tomasz, and Nguyen, Hung H. V.

Abstract

How does noise generated by researcher decisions undermine the credibility of science? We test this by observing all decisions made among 73 research teams as they independently conduct studies on the same hypothesis with identical starting data. We find excessive variation of outcomes. When combined, the 107 observed research decisions taken across teams explained at most 2.6 of the total variance in effect sizes and 10 of the deviance in subjective conclusions. Expertise, prior beliefs and attitudes of the researchers explain even less. Each model deployed to test the hypothesis was unique, which highlights a vast universe of research design variability that is normally hidden from view and suggests humility when presenting and interpreting scientific findings.

Published
2021

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