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As atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations rise and climate change becomes more destructive, geoengineering has become a subject of serious consideration. By reflecting a fraction of incoming sunlight, solar geoengineering could cool the planet quickly, but with uncertain effects on regional climatology, particularly hydrological patterns. Here, we review recent work on projected hydrologic outcomes of solar geoengineering, in the context of a robust literature on hydrological responses to climate change. While most approaches to solar geoengineering are expected to weaken the global hydrologic cycle, regional effects will vary based on implementation method and strategy. The literature on the hydrologic outcomes and impacts of geoengineering demonstrates that its implications for human welfare will depend on assumptions about underlying social conditions and objectives of intervention as well as the social lens through which projected effects are interpreted. We conclude with suggestions to reduce decision-relevant uncertainties in this novel field of Earth science inquiry. ▪ The expected hydrological effects of reducing insolation are among the most uncertain and consequential impacts of solar geoengineering (SG). ▪ Theoretical frameworks from broader climate science can help explain SG's effects on global precipitation, relative humidity, and other aspects of hydroclimate. ▪ The state of the knowledge on hydrological impacts of SG is unevenly concentrated among regions. ▪ Projected hydrological impacts from SG are scenario dependent and difficult to characterize as either harmful or beneficial.

The factors controlling the present-day pattern of temperature variance are poorly understood. In particular, it is unclear why the variance of wintertime near-surface temperatures on daily and synoptic time scales is roughly twice as high over North America as over Eurasia. In this study, continental geometry’s role in shaping regional wintertime temperature variance is investigated using idealized climate model simulations run with midlatitude continents of different shapes. An isolated, rectangular midlatitude continent suggests that in the absence of other geographic features, the highest temperature variance will be located in the northwest of the continent, roughly collocated with the region of largest meridional temperature gradients, and just north of the maximum near-surface wind speeds. Simulations with other geometries, mimicking key features of North America and Eurasia, investigate the impacts of continental length and width, sloping coastlines, and inland bodies of water on regional temperature variance. The largest effect comes from tapering the northwest corner of the continent, similar to Eurasia, which substantially reduces the maximum temperature variance. Narrower continents have smaller temperature variance in isolation, implying that the high variances over North America must be due to the nonlocal influence of stationary waves. Support for this hypothesis is provided by simulations with two midlatitude continents, which show how continental geometry and stationary waves can combine to shape regional temperature variance. Significance Statement Wintertime temperature variance over North America is roughly twice as high as over Eurasia, but the reasons for this are unknown. Here we use idealized climate model simulations to investigate how continental geometry shapes regional temperature variance. We find that the smaller variance over Eurasia is largely due to the tapering of its northwest coast, which weakens temperature gradients in the continental interior. Our simulations also suggest that in isolation a narrow continent, like North America, should have weak temperature variance, implying that stationary waves are responsible for the high variance over North America. Understanding the controls on regional temperature variance is important for interpreting present-day winter climates and how these will change in the future.

Although Earth’s troposphere does not superrotate in the annual mean, for most of the year—from October to May—the winds of the tropical upper troposphere are westerly. We investigate this seasonal superrotation using reanalysis data and a single-layer model for the winds of the tropical upper troposphere. We characterize the temporal and spatial structures of the tropospheric superrotation, and quantify the relationships between the superrotation and the leading modes of tropical interannual variability. We also find that the strength of the superrotation has remained roughly constant over the past few decades, despite the winds of the tropical upper troposphere decelerating (becoming more easterly) in other months. We analyze the monthly zonal-mean zonal momentum budget and use numerical simulations with an axisymmetric, single-layer model of the tropical upper troposphere to study the underlying dynamics of the seasonal superrotation. Momentum flux convergence by stationary eddies accelerates the superrotation, while cross-equatorial easterly momentum transport associated with the Hadley circulation decelerates the superrotation. The seasonal modulations of these two competing factors shape the superrotation. The single-layer model is able to qualitatively reproduce the seasonal progression of the winds in the tropical upper troposphere, and highlights the northward displacement of the intertropical convergence zone in the annual mean as a key factor responsible for the annual cycle of the tropical winds.

The northeastern United States (NEUS) is a densely populated region with a number of major cities along the climatological storm track. Despite its economic and social importance, as well as the area’s vulnerability to flooding, there is significant uncertainty around future trends in extreme precipitation over the region. Here, we undertake a regional study of the projected changes in extreme precipitation over the NEUS through the end of the twenty-first century using an ensemble of high-resolution, dynamically downscaled simulations from the North American Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (NA-CORDEX) project. We find that extreme precipitation increases throughout the region, with the largest changes in coastal regions and smaller changes inland. These increases are seen throughout the year, although the smallest changes in extreme precipitation are seen in the summer, in contrast to earlier studies. The frequency of heavy precipitation also increases such that there are relatively fewer days with moderate precipitation and relatively more days with either no or strong precipitation. Averaged over the region, extreme precipitation increases by +3%–5% °C−1 of local warming, with the largest fractional increases in southern and inland regions and occurring during the winter and spring seasons. This is lower than the +7% °C−1 rate expected from thermodynamic considerations alone and suggests that dynamical changes damp the increases in extreme precipitation. These changes are qualitatively robust across ensemble members, although there is notable intermodel spread associated with models’ climate sensitivity and with changes in mean precipitation. Together, the NA-CORDEX simulations suggest that this densely populated region may require significant adaptation strategies to cope with the increase in extreme precipitation expected at the end of the next century. Significance Statement Observations show that the northeastern United States has already experienced increases in extreme precipitation, and prior modeling studies suggest that this trend is expected to continue through the end of the century. Using high-resolution climate model simulations, we find that coastal regions will experience large increases in extreme precipitation (+6.0–7.5 mm day−1), although there is significant intermodel spread in the trends’ spatial distribution and in their seasonality. Regionally averaged, extreme precipitation will increase at a rate of ∼2% decade−1. Our results also suggest that the frequency of extreme precipitation will increase, with the strongest storms doubling in frequency per degree of warming. These results, taken with earlier studies, provide guidance to aid in resiliency preparation and planning by regional stakeholders.

How clouds respond to anthropogenic sulfate aerosols is one of the largest sources of uncertainty in the radiative forcing of climate over the industrial era. This uncertainty limits our ability to predict equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS)—the equilibrium global warming following a doubling of atmospheric CO 2 . Here, we use satellite observations to quantify relationships between sulfate aerosols and low-level clouds while carefully controlling for meteorology. We then combine the relationships with estimates of the change in sulfate concentration since about 1850 to constrain the associated radiative forcing. We estimate that the cloud-mediated radiative forcing from anthropogenic sulfate aerosols is − 1.11 ± 0.43 W m −2 over the global ocean (95% confidence). This constraint implies that ECS is likely between 2.9 and 4.5 K (66% confidence). Our results indicate that aerosol forcing is less uncertain and ECS is probably larger than the ranges proposed by recent climate assessments.

Climate models and observations robustly agree that Earth’s clear-sky longwave feedback has a value of about -2 W m−2 K−1, suggesting that this feedback can be estimated from first principles. In this study, we derive an analytic model for Earth’s clear-sky longwave feedback. Our approach uses a novel spectral decomposition that splits the feedback into four components: a surface Planck feedback, and three atmospheric feedbacks from CO2, H2O, and the H2O continuum. We obtain analytic expressions for each of these terms, and the model can also be framed in terms of Simpson’s Law and deviations therefrom. We validate the model by comparing it against line-by-line radiative transfer calculations across a wide range of climates. Additionally, the model qualitatively matches the spatial feedback maps of a comprehensive climate model. For present-day Earth, our analysis shows that the clear-sky longwave feedback is dominated by the surface in the global mean and in the dry subtropics; meanwhile, atmospheric feedbacks from CO2 and H2O become important in the inner tropics. Together, these results show that a spectral view of Earth’s clear-sky longwave feedback elucidates not only its global-mean magnitude, but also its spatial pattern and its state-dependence across past and future climates.

Annular modes are the leading mode of variability in extratropical atmospheres, and a key source of predictability at midlatitudes. Previous studies of annular modes have primarily used dry atmospheric models, so that moisture’s role in annular mode dynamics is still unclear. In this study, a moist two-layer quasigeostrophic channel model is used to study the effects of moisture on annular mode persistence. Using a channel model allows moisture’s direct effects to be studied, rather than changes in persistence due to geometric effects associated with shifts in jet latitude on the sphere. Simulations are performed in which the strength of latent heat release is varied to investigate how annular mode persistence responds as precipitation becomes a leading term in the thermodynamic budget. At short lags (20 model days), moisture weakly increases persistence, though it decreases the amplitudes of low-frequency annular mode anomalies. In the most realistic simulation, the greater short-lag persistence increases the e-folding time of the zonal index by 21 model days (≈4 Earth days). Moisture also causes a transition to propagating variability, though this does not seem to affect the leading mode’s persistence.

Southern Ocean (SO) surface winds are essential for ventilating the upper ocean by bringing heat and CO2 to the ocean interior. The relationships between mixed-layer ventilation, the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), and the storm tracks remain unclear because processes can be governed by short-term wind events as well as long-term means.In this study, observed time-varying 5-day probability density functions (PDFs) of ERA5 surface winds and stresses over the SO are used in a singular value decomposition to derive a linearly independent set of empirical basis functions. The first modes of wind (72% of the total wind variance) and stress (74% of the total stress variance) are highly correlated with a standard SAM index (r = 0.82) and reflect SAM’s role in driving cyclone intensity and, in turn, extreme westerly winds. This Joint PDFs of zonal and meridional wind show that southerly and less westerly winds associated with strong mixed-layer ventilation are more frequent during short and distinct negative SAM phases. The probability of these short-term events might be related to mid-latitude atmospheric circulation. The second mode describes seasonal changes in the wind variance (16% of the total variance) that are uncorrelated with the first mode.The analysis produces similar results when repeated using 5-day PDFs from a suite of scatterometer products. Differences between wind product PDFs resemble the first mode of the PDFs. Together, these results show a strong correlation between surface stress PDFs and the leading modes of atmospheric variability, suggesting that empirical modes can serve as a novel pathway for understanding differences and variability of surface stress PDFs.

The precise mechanisms driving Arctic amplification are still under debate. Previous attribution methods compute the vertically uniform temperature change required to balance the top-of-atmosphere energy imbalance caused by each forcing and feedback, with any departures from vertically uniform warming collected into the lapse-rate feedback. We propose an alternative attribution method using a single-column model that accounts for the forcing dependence of high-latitude lapse-rate changes. We examine this method in an idealized general circulation model (GCM), finding that, even though the column-integrated carbon dioxide (CO2) forcing and water vapor feedback are stronger in the tropics, they contribute to polar-amplified surface warming as they produce bottom-heavy warming in high latitudes. A separation of atmospheric temperature changes into local and remote contributors shows that, in the absence of polar surface forcing (e.g., sea ice retreat), changes in energy transport are primarily responsible for the polar-amplified pattern of warming. The addition of surface forcing substantially increases polar surface warming and reduces the contribution of atmospheric dry static energy transport to the warming. This physically based attribution method can be applied to comprehensive GCMs to provide a clearer view of the mechanisms behind Arctic amplification.

Increases in the severity of heat stress extremes are potentially one of the most impactful consequences of climate change, affecting human comfort, productivity, health, and mortality in many places on Earth. Heat stress results from a combination of elevated temperature and humidity, but the relative contributions of each of these to heat stress changes have yet to be quantified. Here, conditions for the baseline specific humidity are derived for when specific humidity or temperature dominates heat stress changes, as measured using the equivalent potential temperature (θE). Separate conditions are derived over ocean and over land, in addition to a condition for when relative humidity changes make a larger contribution than the Clausius–Clapeyron response at fixed relative humidity. These conditions are used to interpret the θE responses in transient warming simulations with an ensemble of models participating in phase 6 of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project. The regional pattern of θE changes is shown to be largely determined by the pattern of specific humidity changes, with the pattern of temperature changes playing a secondary role. This holds whether considering changes in seasonal-mean θE or in extreme (98th-percentile) θE events, and uncertainty in the response of specific humidity to warming is shown to be the leading source of uncertainty in the θE response at most land locations. Finally, analysis of ERA5 data demonstrates that the pattern of observed θE changes is also well explained by the pattern of specific humidity changes. These results demonstrate that understanding regional changes in specific humidity is largely sufficient for understanding regional changes in heat stress.

The nonacceleration theorem states that the torque exerted on the atmosphere by orography is exactly balanced by the convergence of momentum by the stationary waves that the orography excites. This balance is tested in simulations with a stationary wave model and with a dry, idealized general circulation model (GCM), in which large-scale orography is placed at the latitude of maximum surface wind speed. For the smallest mountain considered (maximum height H = 0.5 m), the nonacceleration balance is nearly met, but the damping in the stationary wave model induces an offset between the stationary eddy momentum flux (EMF) convergence and the mountain torque, leading to residual mean flow changes. A stationary nonlinearity appears for larger mountains (H ≥ 10 m), driven by preferential deflection of the flow around the poleward flank of the orography, and causes further breakdown of the nonacceleration balance. The nonlinearity grows as H is increased, and is stronger in the GCM than in the stationary wave model, likely due to interactions with transient eddies. The midlatitude jet shifts poleward for H ≤ 2 km and equatorward for larger mountains, reflecting changes in the transient EMFs, which push the jet poleward for smaller mountains and equatorward for larger mountains. The stationary EMFs consistently force the jet poleward. These results add to our understanding of how orography affects the atmosphere’s momentum budget, providing insight into how the nonacceleration theorem breaks down; the roles of stationary nonlinearities and transients; and how orography affects the strength and latitude of eddy-driven jets.

Arctic Amplification is robustly seen in climate model simulations of future warming and in the paleoclimate record. Here, we show that in the instrumental record Arctic Amplification is only a rec...

The impact of large-scale orography on wintertime near-surface (850 hPa) temperature variability on daily and synoptic time scales (from days to weeks) in the Northern Hemisphere is investigated. Using a combination of theory, idealized modeling work, and simulations with a comprehensive climate model, it is shown that large-scale orography reduces upstream temperature gradients, in turn reducing upstream temperature variability, and enhances downstream temperature gradients, enhancing downstream temperature variability. Hence, the presence of the Rockies on the western edge of the North American continent increases temperature gradients over North America and, consequently, increases North American temperature variability. By contrast, the presence of the Tibetan Plateau and the Himalayas on the eastern edge of the Eurasian continent damps temperature variability over most of Eurasia. However, Tibet and the Himalayas also interfere with the downstream development of storms in the North Pacific storm track, and thus damp temperature variability over North America, by approximately as much as the Rockies enhance it. Large-scale orography is also shown to impact the skewness of downstream temperature distributions, as temperatures to the north of the enhanced temperature gradients are more positively skewed while temperatures to the south are more negatively skewed. This effect is most clearly seen in the northwest Pacific, off the east coast of Japan.

Motivated by observations of southward ocean heat transport (OHT) in the northern Indian Ocean during summer, the role of the ocean in modulating monsoon circulations is explored by coupling an atmospheric model to a slab ocean with an interactive representation of OHT and an idealized subtropical continent. Southward OHT by the cross-equatorial cells is caused by Ekman flow driven by southwesterly monsoon winds in the summer months, cooling sea surface temperatures (SSTs) south of the continent. This increases the reversed meridional surface gradient of moist static energy, shifting the precipitation maximum over the land and strengthening the monsoonal circulation, in the sense of enhancing the vertical wind shear. However, the atmosphere’s cross-equatorial meridional overturning circulation is also weakened by the presence of southward OHT, as the atmosphere is required to transport less energy across the equator. The sensitivity of these effects to varying the strength of the OHT, fixing the OHT at its annual-mean value, and to removing the land is explored. Comparisons with more realistic models suggest that the idealized model used in this study produces a reasonable representation of the effect of OHT on SSTs equatorward of subtropical continents, and hence can be used to study the role of OHT in shaping monsoon circulations on Earth.

We spectrally resolve the conventional clear-sky temperature and water vapor feedbacks in an idealized single-column framework, and show that the well-known partial compensation of these feedbacks ...

Low‐cloud based emergent constraints have the potential to substantially reduce uncertainty in Earth’s equilibrium climate sensitivity, but recent work has shown that previously developed constraints fail in the latest generation of climate models, suggesting that new approaches are needed. Here, we investigate the potential for emergent constraints to reduce uncertainty in regional cloud feedbacks, rather than the global‐mean cloud feedback. Strong relationships are found between the monthly and interannual variability of tropical clouds, and the tropical net cloud feedback. These relationships are combined with observations to substantially narrow the uncertainty in the tropical cloud feedback and demonstrate that the tropical cloud feedback is likely >0Wm−2K−1. Promising relationships are also found in the 90°–60°S and 30°–60°N regions, though these relationships are not robust across model generations and we have not identified the associated physical mechanisms., Key Points Global low‐cloud‐based emergent constraints on equilibrium climate sensitivity fail in CMIP6Strong relationships are found between unforced cloud variability and long‐term cloud feedbacks in several regionsRegional emergent constraints suggest the tropical cloud feedback is likely positive

Strong links are seen in observations between convective clustering and several properties of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). These links suggest that biases in how climate models simulate the ITCZ may be related to model biases in convective clustering or that there may be biases in how models represent the relationship between clustering and the ITCZ. We investigate these issues by analyzing convective clustering, and the link between clustering and ITCZ properties in 18 climate models. We find that the links between variability in convective clustering and variability of ITCZ properties are generally weaker and less robust in models than in observations. By contrast, model biases in the climatological convective clustering explain a substantial fraction of the climatological double‐ITCZ bias, though they do not explain biases in the climatological ITCZ width., Key Points Climate models underestimate the link between zonal convective clustering and the ITCZ widthModel biases in convective clustering explain double‐ITCZ biases, but not ITCZ width biasesSeveral factors may play a role in linking convective clustering and the ITCZ width, but no dominant mechanism was found

The precipitation efficiency of convection (ε) plays an important role in simple models of the tropical atmosphere as well as in global climate models' projections of future climate changes, but remains poorly understood and poorly constrained. A particularly urgent question is how ε will change in warmer climates. To address these issues, this study investigates the precipitation efficiency in simulations of radiative-convective equilibrium with a cloud-resolving model forced by a wide range of sea surface temperatures (SSTs). Two different domains are considered: a small, doubly periodic domain, and a 2-D (x-z) “mock-Walker” domain with a sinusoidal SST profile that resembles the equatorial Pacific, and the sensitivities of the results to the microphysical scheme and to the horizontal resolution are also explored. It is found that ε generally increases with warming in the small domain simulations because of increases in the efficiency with which cloud condensate is converted into precipitation, with changes in the re-evaporation of falling precipitation playing a secondary role. This picture is complicated in the 2-D simulations by substantial changes in the degree of convective organization as the underlying SSTs are varied. ε is found to decrease as convection becomes more organized, because convective organization results in relatively more low clouds, which have small (≤0.1) precipitation efficiencies, and relatively less high clouds, which have larger (∼0.4) precipitation efficiencies., National Science Foundation (Grant AGS-1623218)

The relative contributions of the meridional gradients in insolation and in longwave optical depth (caused by gradients in water vapor) to the equator-to-pole temperature difference, and to Earth’s climate in general, have not been quantified before. As a first step to understanding these contributions, this study investigates simulations with an idealized general circulation model in which the gradients are eliminated individually or jointly, while keeping the global means fixed. The insolation gradient has a larger influence on the model’s climate than the gradient in optical depth, but both make sizeable contributions and the changes are largest when the gradients are reduced simultaneously. Removing either gradient increases global-mean surface temperature due to an increase in the tropospheric lapse rate, while the meridional surface temperature gradients are reduced. “Global warming” experiments with these configurations suggest similar climate sensitivities; however, the warming patterns and feedbacks are quite different. Changes in the meridional energy fluxes lead to polar amplification of the response in all but the setup in which both gradients are removed. The lapse-rate feedback acts to polar amplify the responses in the Earth-like setup, but is uniformly negative in the other setups. Simple models are used to interpret the results, including a prognostic model that can accurately predict regional surface temperatures, given the meridional distributions of insolation and longwave optical depths.

The relationship between climate models’ internal variability and their response to external forcings is investigated. Frequency-dependent regressions are performed between the outgoing top-of-atmosphere (TOA) energy fluxes and the global-mean surface temperature in the preindustrial control simulations of the CMIP5 archive. Two distinct regimes are found. At subdecadal frequencies the surface temperature and the outgoing shortwave flux are in quadrature, while the outgoing longwave flux is linearly related to temperature and acts as a negative feedback on temperature perturbations. On longer time scales the outgoing shortwave and longwave fluxes are both linearly related to temperature, with the longwave continuing to act as a negative feedback and the shortwave acting as a positive feedback on temperature variability. In addition to the different phase relationships, the two regimes can also be seen in estimates of the coherence and of the frequency-dependent regression coefficients. The frequency-dependent regression coefficients for the total cloudy-sky flux on time scales of 2.5 to 3 years are found to be strongly ( r2 > 0.6) related to the models’ equilibrium climate sensitivities (ECSs), suggesting a potential “emergent constraint” for Earth’s ECS. However, O(100) years of data are required for this relationship to become robust. A simple model for Earth’s surface temperature variability and its relationship to the TOA fluxes is used to provide a physical interpretation of these results.

An equatorial heat source mimicking the strong diabatic heating above the west Pacific is added to an idealized, dry general circulation model. For small (−1) heating rates the responses closely match the expectations from linear Matsuno–Gill theory, though the amplitudes of the responses increase sublinearly. This “linear” regime breaks down for larger heating rates and it is found that this is because the stability of the tropical atmosphere increases. At the same time, the equatorial winds increasingly superrotate. This superrotation is driven by stationary eddy momentum fluxes by the waves excited by the heating and is damped by the vertical advection of low-momentum air by the mean flow and, at large heating rates, by the divergence of momentum by transient eddies. These dynamics are explored in additional experiments in which the equator-to-pole temperature gradient is varied. Very strong superrotation is produced when a large heating rate is applied to a setup with a relatively weak equator-to-pole temperature gradient, though there is no evidence that this is a case of “runaway” superrotation.

In Earth’s atmosphere eddy momentum fluxes (EMFs) are largest in the upper troposphere, but EMFs in the lower troposphere, although modest in amplitude, have an intriguing structure. To document this structure, the EMFs in the lower tropospheres of a two-layer quasigeostrophic model, a primitive equation model, and the Southern Hemisphere of a reanalysis dataset are investigated. The lower-tropospheric EMFs are very similar in the cores of the jets in both models and the reanalysis data, with EMF divergence (opposing the upper-tropospheric convergence) due to relatively long waves with slow eastward phase speeds and EMF divergence (as in the upper troposphere) due to shorter waves with faster eastward phase speeds. As the two-layer model is able to capture the EMF divergence by long waves, a qualitative picture of the underlying dynamics is proposed that relies on the negative potential vorticity gradient in the lower layer of the model. Eddies excited by baroclinic instability mix efficiently through a wide region in the lower layer, centered on the latitude of maximum westerlies and encompassing the lower-layer critical latitudes. Near these critical latitudes, the mixing is enhanced, resulting in increased EMF convergence, with compensating EMF divergence in the center of the jet. The EMF convergence at faster phase speeds is due to deep eddies that propagate on the upper-tropospheric potential vorticity gradient., Nicholas Lutsko was supported by NSF Grant DGE 1148900 and Pablo Zurita-Gotor thanks the Cooperative Institute for Climate Science at Princeton University for support during summer 2016.

The tropical zonal-mean precipitation in climate models is well known to have substantial biases such as an erroneous double intertropical convergence zone in the Pacific, but a comprehensive quantification of these biases is currently missing. Therefore, we introduce a set of nine indicators that fully characterize the position and magnitude of the tropical extrema in zonal-mean precipitation. An analysis of the CMIP-historical and AMIP simulations reveals large biases in the position and, especially, in the magnitude of the zonal-mean precipitation extrema in both sets of simulations relative to observations. We find some of the nine indicators to be correlated, and that the structure of tropical precipitation can be well represented using four indicators, though these indicators are different in AMIP and CMIP. Previously defined indicators can only partly explain the biases and so the more comprehensive terminology introduced here is a useful tool for characterizing tropical precipitation.

A dry atmospheric general circulation model is forced with large-scale, Gaussian orography in an attempt to isolate a regime in which the model responds linearly to orographic forcing and then to study the departures from linearity as the orography is increased in amplitude. In contrast to previous results, which emphasized the meridional propagation of orographically forced stationary waves, using the standard Held–Suarez (H–S) control climate, it is found that the linear regime is characterized by a meridionally trapped, zonally propagating wave. Meridionally trapped waves of this kind have been seen in other contexts, where they have been termed “circumglobal waves.” As the height of the orography is increased, the circumglobal wave coexists with a meridionally propagating wave and for large-enough heights the meridionally propagating wave dominates the response. A barotropic model on a sphere reproduces this trapped wave in the linear regime and also reproduces the transition to meridional propagation with increasing amplitude. However, mean-flow modification by the stationary waves is very different in the two models, making it difficult to argue that the transitions have the same causes. When adding asymmetry across the equator to the H–S control climate and placing the orography in the cooler hemisphere, it becomes harder to generate trapped waves in the GCM and the trapping becomes sensitive to the shape of the orography. The barotropic model overestimates the trapping in this case. These results suggest that an improved understanding of the role of circumglobal waves will be needed to understand the stationary wave field and its sensitivity to the changes in the zonal-mean climate.

The fluctuation–dissipation theorem (FDT) provides a means of calculating the response of a dynamical system to a small force by constructing a linear operator that depends only on data from the internal variability of the unperturbed system. Here the FDT is used to estimate the response of a two-layer quasigeostrophic model to two zonally symmetric torques, both barotropic, with the same sign of the forcing in the two layers, and baroclinic, with opposite sign forcing in the two layers. The supercriticality of the model is also varied to test how the FDT fares, as this parameter is varied. To perform the FDT calculations the data are decomposed onto empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) and only those EOFs that are well resolved are retained in the FDT calculations. In the barotropic case good qualitative estimates are obtained for all values of the supercriticality, though the FDT consistently overestimates the response, perhaps because of significant non-Gaussian behavior present in the model. Nevertheless, this adds to the evidence that the annular-mode time scale plays an important role in determining the response of the midlatitudes to small perturbations. The baroclinic case is more challenging for the FDT. However, by constructing different bases with which to calculate the EOFs, it is shown that the issue in this case is that the baroclinic variability is poorly sampled, not that the FDT fails. The strategies developed in order to generate these estimates may be applicable to situations in which the FDT is applied to larger systems.