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Abstract Background In the age of big data, linked social and administrative health data in combination with machine learning (ML) is being increasingly used to improve prediction in chronic disease, e.g., cardiovascular diseases (CVD). In this study we aimed to apply ML methods on extensive national-level health and social administrative datasets to assess the utility of these for predicting future diabetes complications, including by ethnicity. Methods Five ML models were used to predict CVD events among all people with known diabetes in the population of New Zealand, utilizing nationwide individual-level administrative data. Results The Xgboost ML model had the best predictive power for predicting CVD events three years into the future among the population with diabetes (N = 145,600). The optimization procedure also found limited improvement in prediction by ethnicity (using area under the receiver operating curve, [AUC]). The results indicated no trade-off between model predictive performance and equity gap of prediction by ethnicity (that is improving model prediction and reducing performance gaps by ethnicity can be achieved simultaneously). The list of variables of importance was different among different models/ethnic groups, for example: age, deprivation (neighborhood-level), having had a hospitalization event, and the number of years living with diabetes. Discussion and conclusions We provide further evidence that ML with administrative health data can be used for meaningful future prediction of health outcomes. As such, it could be utilized to inform health planning and healthcare resource allocation for diabetes management and the prevention of CVD events. Our results may suggest limited scope for developing prediction models by ethnic group and that the major ways to reduce inequitable health outcomes is probably via improved delivery of prevention and management to those groups with diabetes at highest need.

Abstract Background Longitudinal studies have identified childhood asthma as a risk factor for obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and asthma-COPD overlap (ACO) where persistent airflow limitation can develop more aggressively. However, a causal link between childhood asthma and COPD/ACO remains to be established. Our study aimed to model the natural history of childhood asthma and COPD and to investigate the cellular/molecular mechanisms that drive disease progression. Methods Allergic airways disease was established in three-week-old young C57BL/6 mice using house dust mite (HDM) extract. Mice were subsequently exposed to cigarette smoke (CS) and HDM for 8 weeks. Airspace enlargement (emphysema) was measured by the mean linear intercept method. Flow cytometry was utilised to phenotype lung immune cells. Bulk RNA-sequencing was performed on lung tissue. Volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in bronchoalveolar lavage-fluid were analysed to screen for disease-specific biomarkers. Results Chronic CS exposure induced emphysema that was significantly augmented by HDM challenge. Increased emphysematous changes were associated with more abundant immune cell lung infiltration consisting of neutrophils, interstitial macrophages, eosinophils and lymphocytes. Transcriptomic analyses identified a gene signature where disease-specific changes induced by HDM or CS alone were conserved in the HDM-CS group, and further revealed an enrichment of Mmp12, Il33 and Il13, and gene expression consistent with greater expansion of alternatively activated macrophages. VOC analysis also identified four compounds increased by CS exposure that were paradoxically reduced in the HDM-CS group. Conclusions Early-life allergic airways disease worsened emphysematous lung pathology in CS-exposed mice and markedly alters the lung transcriptome.

Exploring the results of the COVID-19 response in New Zealand (Aotearoa) is warranted so that insights can inform future pandemic planning. We compared the COVID-19 response in New Zealand to that for the more severe 1918–19 influenza pandemic. Both pandemics were caused by respiratory viruses, but the 1918–19 pandemic was short, intense, and yielded a higher mortality rate. The government and societal responses to COVID-19 were vastly superior; responses had a clear strategic direction and included a highly effective elimination strategy, border restrictions, minimal community spread for 20 months, successful vaccination rollout, and strong central government support. Both pandemics involved a whole-of-government response, community mobilization, and use of public health and social measures. Nevertheless, lessons from 1918–19 on the necessity of action to prevent inequities among different social groups were not fully learned, as demonstrated by the COVID-19 response and its ongoing unequal health outcomes in New Zealand.

Abstract This study aimed to estimate the optimal mix of frost resistant crops and land area needed to provide basic nutrition during various nuclear winter scenarios for New Zealand (NZ), a temperate island nation. It used linear programming to minimize land area required for cropping while producing enough food to achieve dietary energy and protein requirements for the whole population. The potential agricultural impacts of three nuclear winter scenarios on NZ, were sourced from the literature. The optimized combinations of frost resistant crops that were found to feed the entire population were, in descending order: wheat and carrots; sugar beet; oats; onions and carrots; cabbage and barley; canola and cabbage; linseed and parsnip; rye and lupins; swede and field beans; and cauliflower. But in terms of current production levels of these frost resistant crops in NZ, there would be a 26% shortfall for the “war without a nuclear winter” scenario and a 71% shortfall for the severe nuclear winter scenario (150 Tg of soot in the stratosphere with a 61% decline in crop yields). In conclusion, at current production levels, frost resistant food crops could not feed all NZ citizens following a nuclear war. There is a need for the NZ Government to conduct a detailed pre-war analysis on how these shortfalls are best addressed. For example, by: increased pre-war production of these crops and/or post-war scalability; growing enough frost sensitive crops (i.e., in greenhouses or the warmest parts of the country); and/or ensuring continuing production of food derived from livestock fed on frost resistant grasses.

Abstract Island nations may have potential long-term survival value for humanity in global catastrophes such as sun-blocking catastrophes from nuclear winter and large magnitude volcanic eruptions. One way to explore this issue further is to understand the impact on islands after the largest historically observed volcanic eruption: that of Mt Tambora in 1815. For each of the 31 large, populated islands selected, we conducted literature searches for relevant historical and palaeoclimate studies. We also analysed results from a reconstruction (EKF400v2), which uses atmospheric-only general circulation model simulations with assimilated observational and proxy data. From the literature review, there was widespread evidence for weather/climate anomalies in 1815–1817 for these islands (29/29 for those with data). But missing data was an issue for other dimensions such as impaired food production (seen in 8 islands out of only 12 with data). Based on the EKF400v2 reconstruction for temperature anomalies (compared to the relatively “non-volcanic” reference period of 1779 to 1808), the islands had lower temperature anomalies in the 1815–1818 period than latitudinally equivalent continental sites (at 100 km and 1000 km inland). This was statistically significant for the great majority of the comparisons for group analyses by hemisphere, oceans, and temperate/tropical zone. When considering just the islands, all but four showed statistically anomalous temperature reductions in the 1816–1817 period (for most p

Abstract Objectives To optimise planning of public health services, the impact of high-cost users needs to be considered. However, most of the existing statistical models for costs do not include many clinical and social variables from administrative data that are associated with elevated health care resource use, and are increasingly available. This study aimed to use machine learning approaches and big data to predict high-cost users among people with cardiovascular disease (CVD). Methods We used nationally representative linked datasets in New Zealand to predict CVD prevalent cases with the most expensive cost belonging to the top quintiles by cost. We compared the performance of four popular machine learning models (L1-regularised logistic regression, classification trees, k-nearest neighbourhood (KNN) and random forest) with the traditional regression models. Results The machine learning models had far better accuracy in predicting high health-cost users compared with the logistic models. The harmony score F1 (combining sensitivity and positive predictive value) of the machine learning models ranged from 30.6% to 41.2% (compared with 8.6–9.1% for the logistic models). Previous health costs, income, age, chronic health conditions, deprivation, and receiving a social security benefit were among the most important predictors of the CVD high-cost users. Conclusions This study provides additional evidence that machine learning can be used as a tool together with big data in health economics for identification of new risk factors and prediction of high-cost users with CVD. As such, machine learning may potentially assist with health services planning and preventive measures to improve population health while potentially saving healthcare costs.

Abstract Aim We aimed to combine Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study data and local data to identify the highest priority intervention domains for preventing cardiovascular disease (CVD) in the case study country of Aotearoa New Zealand (NZ). Methods Risk factor data for CVD in NZ were extracted from the GBD using the “GBD Results Tool.” We prioritized risk factor domains based on consideration of the size of the health burden (disability-adjusted life years [DALYs]) and then by the domain-specific interventions that delivered the highest health gains and cost-savings. Results Based on the size of the CVD health burden in DALYs, the five top prioritized risk factor domains were: high systolic blood pressure (84,800 DALYs; 5400 deaths in 2019), then dietary risk factors, then high LDL cholesterol, then high BMI and then tobacco (30,400 DALYs; 1400 deaths). But if policy-makers aimed to maximize health gain and cost-savings from specific interventions that have been studied, then they would favor the dietary risk domain (e.g., a combined fruit and vegetable subsidy plus a sugar tax produced estimated lifetime savings of 894,000 health-adjusted life years and health system cost-savings of US$11.0 billion; both 3% discount rate). Other potential considerations for prioritization included the potential for total health gain that includes non-CVD health loss and potential for achieving relatively greater per capita health gain for Māori (Indigenous) to reduce health inequities. Conclusions We were able to show how CVD risk factor domains could be systematically prioritized using a mix of GBD and country-level data. Addressing high systolic blood pressure would be the top ranked domain if policy-makers focused just on the size of the health loss. But if policy-makers wished to maximize health gain and cost-savings using evaluated interventions, dietary interventions would be prioritized, e.g., food taxes and subsidies.

Abstract Background Recent studies linking low levels of nitrate in drinking water to colorectal cancer have raised public concerns over nitrate contamination. The aim of this study was to analyze the media discourse on the potential human health hazard of nitrates in drinking water in a high-income country with a large livestock industry: New Zealand (NZ). Methods Searches of media sources (“major newspapers”) held by the Factiva database for the NZ setting in the five-year period 17 December 2016 to 20 December 2021. Results The largest number of media items was observed for 2017 (n = 108), the year of a NZ general election, with a notable decrease in 2020 (n = 20) that was likely due to the Covid-19 pandemic, which dominated health media. However, the percentage of these media items with a health focus steadily increased over time, from 11.1% of all articles in 2017 to 51.2% in 2021. The most commonly mentioned health hazard was colorectal cancer, followed by methemoglobinemia. The temporal pattern of media items suggests that the release of scientific studies and scholarly blogs was associated with the publication of subsequent media items. Major stakeholders involved in the discourse included representatives of local and central government, environmental and recreational interest groups, researchers, local residents, agricultural interest groups, and health organizations. Māori (Indigenous New Zealanders) values or perspectives were rarely mentioned. Conclusions Analysis of major newspapers for a five-year period indicated that a wide range of expert comment and opinions were made available to the public and policy makers on the issue of nitrates in water. While many different stakeholder views were captured in the media discourse, there is scope for the media to better report the views of Māori on this topic. There is also a need for articles detailing the health issues to also refer to the environmental, recreational, and cultural aspects of protecting water quality to ensure that the public, policy makers, and regulators are aware of co-benefits.

Abstract This study aimed to identify dietary trends in Aotearoa New Zealand (NZ) and whether inequities in dietary patterns are changing. We extracted data from the Household Economic Survey (HES), which was designed to provide information on impacts of policy-making in NZ, and performed descriptive analyses on food expenditures. Overall, total household food expenditure per capita increased by 0.38% annually over this period. Low-income households spent around three quarters of what high-income households spent on food per capita. High-income households experienced a greater increase in expenditure on nuts and seeds and a greater reduction in expenditure on processed meat. There was increased expenditure over time on fruit and vegetables nuts and seeds, and healthy foods in Māori (Indigenous) households with little variations in non-Māori households. But there was little change in processed meat expenditure for Māori households and expenditure on less healthy foods also increased over time. Routinely collected HES data were useful and cost-effective for understanding trends in food expenditure patterns to inform public health interventions, in the absence of nutrition survey data. Potentially positive expenditure trends for Māori were identified, however, food expenditure inequities in processed meat and less healthy foods by ethnicity and income continue to be substantial.

Abstract Background This study compares the health gains, costs, and cost-effectiveness of hundreds of Australian and New Zealand (NZ) health interventions conducted with comparable methods in an online interactive league table designed to inform policy. Methods A literature review was conducted to identify peer-reviewed evaluations (2010 to 2018) arising from the Australia Cost-Effectiveness research and NZ Burden of Disease Epidemiology, Equity and Cost-Effectiveness Programmes, or using similar methodology, with: health gains quantified as health-adjusted life years (HALYs); net health system costs and/or incremental cost-effectiveness ratio; time horizon of at least 10 years; and 3% to 5% discount rates. Results We identified 384 evaluations that met the inclusion criteria, covering 14 intervention domains: alcohol; cancer; cannabis; communicable disease; cardiovascular disease; diabetes; diet; injury; mental illness; other non-communicable diseases; overweight and obesity; physical inactivity; salt; and tobacco. There were large variations in health gain across evaluations: 33.9% gained less than 0.1 HALYs per 1000 people in the total population over the remainder of their lifespan, through to 13.0% gaining > 10 HALYs per 1000 people. Over a third (38.8%) of evaluations were cost-saving. Conclusions League tables of comparably conducted evaluations illustrate the large health gain (and cost) variations per capita between interventions, in addition to cost-effectiveness. Further work can test the utility of this league table with policy-makers and researchers.

Abstract Objective: In 2020, we developed a public health decision‐support model for mitigating the spread of SARS‐CoV‐2 infections in Australia and New Zealand. Having demonstrated its capacity to describe disease progression patterns during both countries’ first waves of infections, we describe its utilisation in Victoria in underpinning the State Government's then ‘RoadMap to Reopening’. Methods: Key aspects of population demographics, disease, spatial and behavioural dynamics, as well as the mechanism, timing, and effect of non‐pharmaceutical public health policies responses on the transmission of SARS‐CoV‐2 in both countries were represented in an agent‐based model. We considered scenarios related to the imposition and removal of non‐pharmaceutical interventions on the estimated progression of SARS‐CoV‐2 infections. Results: Wave 1 results suggested elimination of community transmission of SARS‐CoV‐2 was possible in both countries given sustained public adherence to social restrictions beyond 60 days’ duration. However, under scenarios of decaying adherence to restrictions, a second wave of infections (Wave 2) was predicted in Australia. In Victoria's second wave, we estimated in early September 2020 that a rolling 14‐day average of

Abstract Acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) is triggered by various aetiological factors such as trauma, sepsis and respiratory viruses including SARS-CoV-2 and influenza A virus. Immune profiling of severe COVID-19 patients has identified a complex pattern of cytokines including granulocyte macrophage-colony stimulating factor (GM-CSF) and interleukin (IL)-5, which are significant mediators of viral-induced hyperinflammation. This strong response has prompted the development of therapies that block GM-CSF and other cytokines individually to limit inflammation related pathology. The common cytokine binding site of the human common beta (βc) receptor signals for three inflammatory cytokines: GM-CSF, IL-5 and IL-3. In this study, βc was targeted with the monoclonal antibody (mAb) CSL311 in engineered mice devoid of mouse βc and βIL-3 and expressing human βc (hβcTg mice). Direct pulmonary administration of lipopolysaccharide (LPS) caused ARDS-like lung injury, and CSL311 markedly reduced lung inflammation and oedema, resulting in improved oxygen saturation levels in hβcTg mice. In a separate model, influenza (HKx31) lung infection caused viral pneumonia associated with a large influx of myeloid cells into the lungs of hβcTg mice. The therapeutic application of CSL311 potently decreased accumulation of monocytes/macrophages, neutrophils, and eosinophils without altering lung viral loads. Furthermore, CSL311 treatment did not limit the viral-induced expansion of NK and NKT cells, or the tissue expression of type I/II/III interferons needed for efficient viral clearance. Simultaneously blocking GM-CSF, IL-5 and IL-3 signalling with CSL311 may represent an improved and clinically applicable strategy to reducing hyperinflammation in the ARDS setting.

Abstract Background Simulation models can be used to quantify the projected health impact of interventions. Quantifying heterogeneity in these impacts, for example by socioeconomic status, is important to understand impacts on health inequalities. We aim to disaggregate one type of Markov macro-simulation model, the proportional multistate lifetable, ensuring that under business-as-usual (BAU) the sum of deaths across disaggregated strata in each time step returns the same as the initial non-disaggregated model. We then demonstrate the application by deprivation quintiles for New Zealand (NZ), for: hypothetical interventions (50% lower all-cause mortality, 50% lower coronary heart disease mortality) and a dietary intervention to substitute 59% of sodium with potassium chloride in the food supply. Methods We developed a disaggregation algorithm that iteratively rescales mortality, incidence and case-fatality rates by time-step of the model to ensure correct total population counts were retained at each step. To demonstrate the algorithm on deprivation quintiles in NZ, we used the following inputs: overall (non-disaggregated) all-cause mortality & morbidity rates, coronary heart disease incidence & case fatality rates; stroke incidence & case fatality rates. We also obtained rate ratios by deprivation for these same measures. Given all-cause and cause-specific mortality rates by deprivation quintile, we derived values for the incidence, case fatality and mortality rates for each quintile, ensuring rate ratios across quintiles and the total population mortality and morbidity rates were returned when averaged across groups. The three interventions were then run on top of these scaled BAU scenarios. Results The algorithm exactly disaggregated populations by strata in BAU. The intervention scenario life years and health adjusted life years (HALYs) gained differed slightly when summed over the deprivation quintile compared to the aggregated model, due to the stratified model (appropriately) allowing for differential background mortality rates by strata. Modest differences in health gains (HALYs) resulted from rescaling of sub-population mortality and incidence rates to ensure consistency with the aggregate population. Conclusion Policy makers ideally need to know the effect of population interventions estimated both overall, and by socioeconomic and other strata. We demonstrate a method and provide code to do this routinely within proportional multistate lifetable simulation models and similar Markov models.

Abstract Background Although the harm to health from electronic nicotine delivery systems (ENDS) compared to smoked tobacco remains highly uncertain, society and governments still need to know the likely range of the relative harm to inform regulatory policies for ENDS and smoking. Methods We identified biomarkers with specificity of association with different disease groupings e.g., volatile organic compound (VOCs) for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease; and tobacco-specific N´-nitrosamines (TSNAs) and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) for all cancers. We conducted a review of recent studies (post January 2017) that compared these biomarkers between people exclusively using ENDS and those exclusively smoking tobacco. The percentage differences in these biomarkers, weighted by study size and adjusted for acrolein from other sources, were used as a proxy for the assumed percentage difference in disease harm between ENDS and smoking. These relative differences were applied to previously modelled estimates of smoking-related health loss (in health-adjusted life-years; HALYs). Results The respective relative biomarker levels (ENDS vs smoking) were: 28% for respiratory diseases (five results, three studies); 42% for cancers (five results, four studies); and 35% for cardiovascular (seven results, four studies). When integrated with the HALY impacts by disease, the overall harm to health from ENDS was estimated to be 33% that of smoking. Conclusions This analysis, suggests that the use of modern ENDS devices (vaping) could be a third as harmful to health as smoking in a high-income country setting. But this estimate is based on a limited number of biomarker studies and is best be considered a likely upper level of ENDS risk given potential biases in our method (i.e., the biomarkers used being correlated with more unaccounted for toxicants in smoking compared to with using ENDS).

Introduction Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is a progressively fibrotic lung condition with poor prognosis. Matrix metalloproteinase-7 (MMP7) is a protein secreted by epithelial cells in IPF lungs. It is not known if MMP7 expression correlates with fibrotic changes in lung tissue. Methods Tissue samples from lung apices and bases were obtained from 20 IPF patients and 14 non-diseased control (NDC) donors. In formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded sections, histological assessment of fibrosis was performed; overall MMP7 positivity was assessed by immunohistochemistry and MMP7+ cells were quantified using multiplex immunohistochemistry. Protein expression of MMP7 in whole lung lysates was quantified by Western blotting. Bulk tissue transcriptomic profiles of 101 samples were analysed using RNA sequencing technologies. Results Lung tissue from IPF bases was more fibrotic than in apices. MMP7 protein is elevated in IPF lung base tissue. In IPF whole lung lysates, MMP7 protein levels are increased compared to NDC donors and was increased in IPF lung bases compared to apices. MMP7 protein levels correlated with MMP7 gene expression levels in lung tissue. MMP7 transcript levels were increased in IPF base compared to NDC base lung tissue and increased in IPF base tissue compared to IPF apex tissue. Conclusions Our cross-sectional study suggests that lung epithelial MMP7 expression increases as the tissue becomes more fibrotic and identifies a potentially nonepithelial or immune-cell source. Mechanisms of disease progression in IPF are still unclear, and our study suggests aberrant MMP7 production may be a histological starting point of lung tissue fibrosis.

Abstract Objective: There is growing epidemiological evidence linking nitrate contamination to adverse health outcomes. Health concerns may drive consumers towards bottled water, however, nitrate levels in bottled water are not readily available. Methods: We tested water samples from the 10 most popular brands using a TriOS OPUS UV optical nitrate sensor. Results: Overall, all bottled water brands tested returned nitrate levels below 4.4 mg/L NO3. Conclusions: The growing health concerns associated with nitrate contamination suggest that increased reporting of water quality is required. Implications for public health: Mandatory reporting of water quality laboratory reports by bottled water producers would improve transparency to consumers and help public health researchers track potential threats to water quality as new evidence emerges.

Abstract Objective To examine the effects of health-related food taxes on substitution and complementary purchases within food groups, including from unhealthier to healthier alternatives and between brands. Methods We used data from a virtual supermarket experiment with data from 4,259 shopping events linked to varying price sets. Substitution or complementary effects within six frequently purchased food categories were analyzed. Products’ own- and cross-price elasticities were analyzed using Almost Ideal Demand System models. Results Overall, 37.5% of cross-price elasticities were significant (p

Abstract Objective: To systematically characterise sugar‐sweetened beverage (SSB) tax policy changes in Pacific Island countries and territories (PICTs) from 2000 to 2019. Methods: Medline, Google Scholar, Pacific Islands Legal Information Institute database, Factiva and news and government websites were systematically searched up to October 2019. Information was extracted on the date and SSB tax level change, tax type, included beverages, and earmarking; and checked for consistency with local experts. Results: Three‐quarters of PICTs had an SSB tax (n=16/21) and 11 of these were excise taxes that included both imported and locally produced beverages. The level of tax was over 20% in 14 jurisdictions. SSB tax was increased by more than 20 percentage points in eight PICTs. Most taxes were ad valorem or volumetric, three were earmarked and only two taxes targeted sugar‐sweetened fruit juices. The majority of countries (14/21) had different tax rates for imported and locally produced beverages. Conclusions: More than three‐quarters of PICTs have SSB taxes. More than one‐third increased these taxes since 2000 at an amount that is expected to reduce soft drink consumption. Implications for public health: Despite high‐quality tax design elements in some PICTs, SSB control policies could generally be strengthened to improve health benefits, e.g. by targeting all SSBs and earmarking revenue for health.

Abstract We aimed to estimate the risk of COVID-19 outbreaks associated with air travel to a COVID-19-free country [New Zealand (NZ)]. A stochastic version of the SEIR model CovidSIM v1.1, designed specifically for COVID-19 was utilised. We first considered historical data for Australia before it eliminated COVID-19 (equivalent to an outbreak generating 74 new cases/day) and one flight per day to NZ with no interventions in place. This gave a median time to an outbreak of 0.2 years (95% range of simulation results: 3 days to 1.1 years) or a mean of 110 flights per outbreak. However, the combined use of a pre-flight PCR test of saliva, three subsequent PCR tests (on days 1, 3 and 12 in NZ), and various other interventions (mask use and contact tracing) reduced this risk to one outbreak after a median of 1.5 years (20 days to 8.1 years). A pre-flight test plus 14 days quarantine was an even more effective strategy (4.9 years; 2,594 flights). For a much lower prevalence (representing only two new community cases per week in the whole of Australia), the annual risk of an outbreak with no interventions was 1.2% and had a median time to an outbreak of 56 years. In contrast the risks associated with travellers from Japan and the United States was very much higher and would need quarantine or other restrictions. Collectively, these results suggest that multi-layered interventions can markedly reduce the risk of importing the pandemic virus via air travel into a COVID-19-free nation. For some low-risk source countries, there is the potential to replace 14-day quarantine with alternative interventions. However, all approaches require public and policy deliberation about acceptable risks, and continuous careful management and evaluation.

Segregation of solute atoms at interfaces affects the properties of alloys and needs to be understood to allow their rational design. Here the authors report an unusual solute segregation phenomenon in a group of Mg alloys, driven by chemical bonding, where solute atoms larger than Mg segregate to compression sites of specific fully coherent twin boundary.

Abstract Background The aim of this study was to examine changes in beverage expenditure patterns before and after a T$0.50/L sweetened-beverage (SB) excise was introduced in Tonga in 2013, by household income, household age composition and island of residence. Methods Two cross-sectional surveys involved households being randomly sampled (the Household Income and Expenditure Surveys in 2009 (n = 1982) and 2015/16 (n = 1800)). Changes in soft drink (taxed), bottled water, and milk (both untaxed) expenditure were examined namely: (i) prevalence of households purchasing the beverage; (ii) average expenditure per person (inflation-adjusted); (iii) expenditure as a proportion of household food budget; and (iv) expenditure per person as a proportion of equivalised income. Results The pattern found was of decreases in all soft drink expenditure outcomes and these appeared to be greater in low-income than high-income households for purchasing prevalence (− 30% and − 25% respectively, t-test p = 0.98), per-capita expenditure (− 37% and − 34%, p = 0.20) and food budget share (− 27% and − 7%, p = 0.65), but not income share (− 6% and − 32%, p = 0.71). The large expenditure increases in bottled water appeared to be greater in low-income than high-income households for purchasing prevalence (355 and 172%, p = 0.32) and food budget share (665 and 468%, p = 0.09), but greater in high-income households for per-capita expenditure (121 and 373%, p

BackgroundEvidence suggests that smartphone apps can be effective in the self-management of weight. Given the low cost, broad reach, and apparent effectiveness of weight loss apps, governments may seek to encourage their uptake as a tool to reduce excess weight in the population. Mass media campaigns are 1 mechanism for promoting app use. However, the cost and potential cost-effectiveness are important considerations. ObjectiveThe aim of our study was to use modeling to assess the health impacts, health system costs, cost-effectiveness, and health equity of a mass media campaign to promote high-quality smartphone apps for weight loss in New Zealand. MethodsWe used an established proportional multistate life table model that simulates the 2011 New Zealand adult population over the lifetime, subgrouped by age, sex, and ethnicity (Māori [Indigenous] or non-Māori). The risk factor was BMI. The model compared business as usual to a one-off mass media campaign intervention, which included the pooled effect size from a recent meta-analysis of smartphone weight loss apps. The resulting impact on BMI and BMI-related diseases was captured through changes in health gain (quality-adjusted life years) and in health system costs. The difference in total health system costs was the net sum of intervention costs and downstream cost offsets because of altered disease rates. An annual discount rate of 3% was applied to health gains and health system costs. Multiple scenarios and sensitivity analyses were conducted, including an equity adjustment. ResultsAcross the remaining lifetime of the modeled 2011 New Zealand population, the mass media campaign to promote weight loss app use had an estimated overall health gain of 181 (95% uncertainty interval 113-270) quality-adjusted life years and health care costs of –NZ $606,000 (–US $408,000; 95% uncertainty interval –NZ $2,540,000 [–US $1,709,000] to NZ $907,000 [US $610,000]). The mean health care costs were negative, representing overall savings to the health system. Across the outcomes examined in this study, the modeled mass media campaign to promote weight loss apps among the general population would be expected to provide higher per capita health gain for Māori and hence reduce health inequities arising from high BMI, assuming that the intervention would be as effective for Māori as it is for non-Māori. ConclusionsA modeled mass media campaign to encourage the adoption of smartphone apps to promote weight loss among the New Zealand adult population is expected to yield an overall gain in health and to be cost-saving to the health system. Although other interventions in the nutrition and physical activity space are even more beneficial to health and produce larger cost savings (eg, fiscal policies and food reformulation), governments may choose to include strategies to promote health app use as complementary measures.

Abstract Background The Pacific Island nation of Tonga (a middle-income country) introduced a sweetened beverage tax of T$0.50/L in 2013, with this increasing further in 2016 (to T$1.00/L), and in 2017 (T$1.50/L; US$0.02/oz). Given the potential importance of such types of fiscal intervention for preventing chronic disease, we aimed to evaluate the impact of these tax changes in Tonga. Methods Interrupted time series analysis was used to examine monthly import volumes and quarterly price and manufacturing 1 year after each tax change, compared with a counterfactual based on existing trends. Autocorrelation was adjusted for when present, and adjustments were made for changes in GDP per capita, visitor numbers, season and T$/US$ exchange rate. Results In the year after the 2013, 2016 and 2017 tax increases, the price of an indicator soft drink increased by 16.8% (95%CI: 6.3 to 29.6), 3.7% (− 0.6 to 8.3) and 17.6% (6.0 to 32.0) respectively. Imports of sweetened beverages decreased with changes of − 10.4% (− 23.6 to 9.0), − 30.3% (− 38.8 to − 20.5) and − 62.5% (− 73.1 to − 43.4) respectively. Juice imports changed by − 54.2% (− 93.2 to − 1.1), and sachet drinks by − 15.5% (− 67.8 to 88.3) after the 2017 tax increase. Tonga water bottling (T$) increased in value by 143% (69 to 334) after the 2016 tax increase and soft drink manufacturing increased by 20% (2 to 46, albeit 5% market share). Conclusions Consistent with international evaluations of sugar-sweetened beverage taxes, the taxes in Tonga were associated with increased prices, decreased taxed beverages imports, and increased locally bottled water.

We estimated the case-fatality risk for coronavirus disease cases in China (3.5%); China, excluding Hubei Province (0.8%); 82 countries, territories, and areas (4.2%); and on a cruise ship (0.6%). Lower estimates might be closest to the true value, but a broad range of 0.25%–3.0% probably should be considered.

Summary: Background: Myocardial infarction mortality has declined since the 1970s, but contemporary drivers of this trend remain unexplained. The aim of this study was to compare the contribution of trends in event rates and case fatality to declines in myocardial infarction mortality in four high-income jurisdictions from 2002–15. Methods: Linked hospitalisation and mortality data were obtained from New South Wales (NSW), Australia; Ontario, Canada; New Zealand; and England, UK. People aged between 30 years and 105 years were included in the study. Age-adjusted trends in myocardial infarction event rates and case fatality were estimated from Poisson and binomial regression models, and their relative contribution to trends in myocardial infarction mortality calculated. Findings: 1 947 895 myocardial infarction events from a population of 80·4 million people were identified in people aged 30 years or older. There were significant declines in myocardial infarction mortality, event rates, and case fatality in all jurisdictions. Age-standardised myocardial infarction event rates were highest in New Zealand (men 893/100 000 person-years in 2002, 536/100 000 person-years in 2015; women 482/100 000 person-years in 2002, 271/100 000 person-years in 2015) and lowest in England (men 513/100 000 person-years in 2002, 382/100 000 person-years in 2015; women 238/100 000 person-years in 2002, 173/100 000 person-years in 2015). Annual age-adjusted reductions in event rates ranged from –2·6% (95% CI –3·0 to –2·3) in men in England to –4·3% (–4·4 to –4·1) in women in Ontario. Age-standardised case fatality was highest in England in 2002 (48%), but declined at a greater rate than in the other jurisdictions (men –4·1%/year, 95% CI –4·2 to –4·0%; women –4·4%/year, –4·5 to –4·3%). Declines in myocardial infarction mortality rates ranged from –6·1%/year to –7·6%/year. Event rate declines were the greater contributor to myocardial infarction mortality reductions in Ontario (69·4% for men and women), New Zealand (men 68·4%; women 67·5%), and NSW women (60·1%), whereas reductions in case fatality were the greater contributor in England (60% in men and women) and for NSW men (54%). There were greater contributions from case fatality than event rate reductions in people younger than 55 years in all jurisdictions, with contributions to mortality declines varying by country in those aged 55–74 years. Event rate declines had a greater impact than changes in case fatality in those aged 75 years and older. Interpretation: While the mortality burden of myocardial infarction has continued to fall across these four populations, the relative contribution of trends in myocardial infarction event rates and case fatality to declining mortality varied between jurisdictions, including by age and sex. Understanding the causes of this variation will enable optimisation of prevention and treatment efforts. Funding: National Health and Medical Research Council, Australia; Australian Research Council; Health Research Council of New Zealand; Canadian Institutes of Health Research, Canada; National Institute for Health Research, UK.

BackgroundInadequate physical activity is a substantial cause of health loss worldwide, and this loss is attributable to diseases such as coronary heart disease, diabetes, stroke, and certain forms of cancer. ObjectiveThis study aims to assess the potential impact of the prescription of smartphone apps in primary care settings on physical activity levels, health gains (in quality-adjusted life years [QALYs]), and health system costs in New Zealand (NZ). MethodsA proportional multistate lifetable model was used to estimate the change in physical activity levels and predict the resultant health gains in QALYs and health system costs over the remaining life span of the NZ population alive in 2011 at a 3% discount rate. ResultsThe modeled intervention resulted in an estimated 430 QALYs gained (95% uncertainty interval 320-550), with net cost savings of 2011 NZ $2.2 million (2011 US $1.5 million) over the remaining life span of the 2011 NZ population. On a per capita basis, QALY gains were generally larger in women than in men and larger in Māori than in non-Māori. The health impact and cost-effectiveness of the intervention were highly sensitive to assumptions on intervention uptake and decay. For example, the scenario analysis with the largest benefits, which assumed a 5-year maintenance of additional physical activity levels, delivered 1750 QALYs and 2011 NZ $22.5 million (2011 US $15.1 million) in cost savings. ConclusionsThe prescription of smartphone apps for promoting physical activity in primary care settings is likely to generate modest health gains and cost savings at the population level in this high-income country. Such gains may increase with ongoing improvements in app design and increased health worker promotion of the apps to patients.

BackgroundReducing disease can maintain personal individual income and improve societal economic productivity. However, estimates of income loss for multiple diseases simultaneously with thorough adjustment for confounding are lacking, to our knowledge. We estimate individual-level income loss for 40 conditions simultaneously by phase of diagnosis, and the total income loss at the population level (a function of how common the disease is and the individual-level income loss if one has the disease).Methods and findingsWe used linked health tax data for New Zealand as a high-income country case study, from 2006 to 2007 to 2015 to 2016 for 25- to 64-year-olds (22.5 million person-years). Fixed effects regression was used to estimate within-individual income loss by disease, and cause-deletion methods to estimate economic productivity loss at the population level. Income loss in the year of diagnosis was highest for dementia for both men (US$8,882; 95% CI $6,709 to $11,056) and women ($7,103; $5,499 to $8,707). Mental illness also had high income losses in the year of diagnosis (average of about $5,300 per year for males and $4,100 per year for females, for 4 subcategories of: depression and anxiety; alcohol related; schizophrenia; and other). Similar patterns were evident for prevalent years of diagnosis. For the last year of life, cancers tended to have the highest income losses, (e.g., colorectal cancer males: $17,786, 95% CI $15,555 to $20,018; females: $14,192, $12,357 to $16,026). The combined annual income loss from all diseases among 25- to 64-year-olds was US$2.72 billion or 4.3% of total income. Diseases contributing more than 4% of total disease-related income loss were mental illness (30.0%), cardiovascular disease (15.6%), musculoskeletal (13.7%), endocrine (8.9%), gastrointestinal (7.4%), neurological (6.5%), and cancer (4.5%). The limitations of this study include residual biases that may overestimate the effect of disease on income loss, such as unmeasured time-varying confounding (e.g., divorce leading to both depression and income loss) and reverse causation (e.g., income loss leading to depression). Conversely, there may also be offsetting underestimation biases, such as income loss in the prodromal phase before diagnosis that is misclassified to "healthy" person time.ConclusionsIn this longitudinal study, we found that income loss varies considerably by disease. Nevertheless, mental illness, cardiovascular, and musculoskeletal diseases stand out as likely major causes of economic productivity loss, suggesting that they should be prioritised in prevention programmes.

Abstract Background Doubts exist around the value of compiling league tables for cost-effectiveness results for health interventions, primarily due to methods differences. We aimed to determine if a reasonably coherent league table could be compiled using published studies for one high-income country: New Zealand (NZ). Methods Literature searches were conducted to identify NZ-relevant studies published in the peer-reviewed journal literature between 1 January 2010 and 8 October 2017. Only studies with the following metrics were included: cost per quality-adjusted life-year or disability-adjusted life-year or life-year (QALY/DALY/LY). Key study features were abstracted and a summary league table produced which classified the studies in terms of cost-effectiveness. Results A total of 21 cost-effectiveness studies which met the inclusion criteria were identified. There were some large methodological differences between the studies, particularly in the time horizon (1 year to lifetime) but also discount rates (range 0 to 10%). Nevertheless, we were able to group the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) into general categories of being reported as cost-saving (19%), cost-effective (71%), and not cost-effective (10%). The median ICER (adjusted to 2017 NZ$) was ~ $5000 per QALY/DALY/LY (~US$3500). However, for some interventions, there is high uncertainty around the intervention effectiveness and declining adherence over time. Conclusions It seemed possible to produce a reasonably coherent league table for the ICER values from different studies (within broad groupings) in this high-income country. Most interventions were cost-effective and a fifth were cost-saving. Nevertheless, study methodologies did vary widely and researchers need to pay more attention to using standardised methods that allow their results to be included in future league tables.

Commercial alloys contain trace solutes that segregate at grain boundaries but have been difficult to directly image due to electron beam damage. Here, the authors use atomic-resolution energy dispersive X-ray spectroscopy at lower electron voltage to image segregation at magnesium alloy twin boundaries.

Abstract Background Smartphones are increasingly available and some high quality apps are available for smoking cessation. However, the cost-effectiveness of promoting such apps has never been studied. We therefore aimed to estimate the health gain, inequality impacts and cost-utility from a five-year promotion campaign of a smoking cessation smartphone app compared to business-as-usual (no app use for quitting). Methods A well-established Markov macro-simulation model utilising a multi-state life-table was adapted to the intervention (lifetime horizon, 3% discount rate). The setting was the New Zealand (NZ) population (N = 4.4 million). The intervention effect size was from a multi-country randomised trial: relative risk for quitting at 6 months = 2.23 (95%CI: 1.08 to 4.77), albeit subsequently adjusted to consider long-term relapse. Intervention costs were based on NZ mass media promotion data and the NZ cost of attracting a smoker to smoking cessation services (NZ$64 per person). Results The five-year intervention was estimated to generate 6760 QALYs (95%UI: 5420 to 8420) over the remaining lifetime of the population. For Māori (Indigenous population) there was 2.8 times the per capita age-standardised QALY gain relative to non-Māori. The intervention was also estimated to be cost-saving to the health system (saving NZ$115 million [m], 95%UI: 72.5m to 171m; US$81.8m). The cost-saving aspect of the intervention was maintained in scenario and sensitivity analyses where the discount rate was doubled to 6%, the effect size halved, and the intervention run for just 1 year. Conclusions This study provides modelling-level evidence that mass-media promotion of a smartphone app for smoking cessation could generate health gain, reduce ethnic inequalities in health and save health system costs. Nevertheless, there are other tobacco control measures which generate considerably larger health gains and cost-savings such as raising tobacco taxes.

BackgroundCardiovascular disease (CVD) is a leading cause of health loss and health sector economic burdens in high-income countries. Unemployment is associated with increased risk of CVD, and so there is concern that the economic downturn associated with the COVID-19 pandemic will increase the CVD burden.AimsThis modeling study aimed to quantify potential health loss, health cost burden and health inequities among people with CVD due to additional unemployment caused by COVID-19 pandemic-related economic disruption in one high-income country: New Zealand (NZ).MethodsWe adapted an established and validated multi-state life-table model for CVD in the national NZ population. We modeled indirect effects (ie, higher CVD incidence due to high unemployment rates) for various scenarios of pandemic-related unemployment projections from the NZ Treasury.ResultsWe estimated the potential CVD-related heath loss in NZ to range from 23,300 to 36,900 health-adjusted life years (HALYs) for the different unemployment scenarios. Health inequities would be increased with the per capita health loss for Māori (Indigenous population) estimated to be 3.7 times greater than for non-Māori (49.9 vs 13.5 HALYs lost per 1000 people). The estimated additional health system costs ranged between (NZ$303 million [m] to 503m in 2019 values; or US$209m to 346m).Conclusions and policy implicationsUnemployment due to the COVID-19 pandemic could cause significant health loss, increase health inequities from CVD, and impose additional health system costs in this high-income country. Prevention measures should be considered by governments to reduce this risk, including additional job creation programs and measures directed towards the primary prevention of CVD.

ObjectivesWe aimed to describe the epidemiology of statue attacks along with statue representativeness relative to modern day demographics in one case study country: New Zealand.MethodsWe performed Internet searches for the existence of outdoor statues of named individuals and historical attacks in New Zealand (NZ), combined a national survey with field visits to all identified statues to examine for injuries and repairs.ResultsOf the 123 statues identified, nearly a quarter (n = 28, 23%) had been attacked at least once (total of 45 separate attack events), with the number of attacks increasing from the 1990s. Attacks involved paint/graffiti (14% of all statues at least once), nose removal/damage (7%), decapitation (5%), and total destruction (2%). The risk of attack was relatively higher for statues of royalty (50%), military personnel (33%), explorers (29%), and politicians (25%), compared to other reasons for fame (eg, 0% for sports players). Statue subjects involved in colonialism or direct harm to Māori (Indigenous population), had 6.61 (95%CI: 2.30 to 19.9) greater odds (adjusted odds ratio) of being attacked than other subjects. Most of the statue subjects were of men (87%) and Europeans (93%). Other ethnicities were 6% Māori (comprising 15% of the population) and 1% each for Asian and Pacific peoples, who comprise 12% and 7% of the population respectively.ConclusionsThis national survey found an association between statue attacks and the role of statue subjects in colonialism or direct harm to the Indigenous population. Furthermore, the demography of the statue subjects may represent historical and current social power relationships-with under-representation of women and non-European ethnic groups.

Summary: Background: One possible policy response to the burden of diet-related disease is food taxes and subsidies, but the net health gains of these approaches are uncertain because of substitution effects between foods. We estimated the health and cost impacts of various food taxes and subsidies in one high-income country, New Zealand. Methods: In this modelling study, we compared the effects in New Zealand of a 20% fruit and vegetable subsidy, of saturated fat, sugar and salt taxes (each set at a level that increased the total food price by the same magnitude of decrease from the fruit and vegetable subsidy), and of an 8% so-called junk food tax (on non-essential, energy-dense food). We modelled the effect of price changes on food purchases, the consequent changes in fruit and vegetable and sugar-sweetened beverage purchasing, nutrient risk factors, and body-mass index, and how these changes affect health status and health expenditure. The pre-intervention intake for 340 food groups was taken from the New Zealand National Nutrition Survey and the post-intervention intake was estimated using price and expenditure elasticities. The resultant changes in dietary risk factors were then propagated through a proportional multistate lifetable (with 17 diet-related diseases) to estimate the changes in health-adjusted life years (HALYs) and health system expenditure over the 2011 New Zealand population's remaining lifespan. Findings: Health gains (expressed in HALYs per 1000 people) ranged from 127 (95% uncertainty interval 96–167; undiscounted) for the 8% junk food tax and 212 (102–297) for the fruit and vegetable subsidy, up to 361 (275–474) for the saturated fat tax, 375 (272–508) for the salt tax, and 581 (429–792) for the sugar tax. Health expenditure savings across the remaining lifespan per capita (at a 3% discount rate) ranged from US$492 (334–694) for the junk food tax to $2164 (1472–3122) for the sugar tax. Interpretation: The large magnitude of the health gains and cost savings of these modelled taxes and subsidies suggests that their use warrants serious policy consideration. Funding: Health Research Council of New Zealand.

Abstract Objective: As relatively little is known about how socioeconomic position might have affected health prior to the Second World War, we aimed to study lifespan by occupational class in two cohorts in New Zealand. Methods: The first study included men on the electoral rolls in Dunedin in the period 1893 to 1902. The second study used an established cohort of male military personnel who were recruited for the First World War. Linear regression was used to estimate lifespan by occupational class. Results: The first study of 259 men on the electoral rolls found no substantive lifespan differences between the high and low occupational class groups. But the second study of 2,406 military personnel found that men in the three highest occupational classes lived 3.5 years longer (95%CI: 0.3–6.8 years) than the three lowest classes (in the multivariable analysis adjusting for age in 1918 and rurality of occupation). Conclusions: We found no significant lifespan differences in one cohort, but a second cohort is the earliest demonstration to our knowledge of substantial differences in mortality by socioeconomic position in this country prior to the 1960s. Implications for public health: This study provides historical context to the long‐term efforts to address health inequalities in society.

Abstract Objective: To describe the basic epidemiology of sudden mass fatality events for the 1900 to 2015 period in New Zealand (NZ). Methods: Official lists and internet searches were used to identify the events. Events were categorised, rates calculated and time trends analysed. Results: A total of 56 sudden mass fatality events with 10 or more fatalities between 1900 and 2015 in NZ were identified. There were 1,896 deaths in total, with the worst event being the Hawke's Bay earthquake (258 deaths). Events were classified as transportation‐related (64%), natural causes (11%), industrial (9%), war (9%) and infrastructure (5%). There were marked declines in the rate of events per person‐years of exposure and the associated mortality rate (both p

Abstract Background Internationally, ethnic inequalities in mortality within countries are increasingly recognized as a public health concern. But few countries have data to monitor such inequalities. We aimed to provide a detailed description of ethnic inequalities (Māori [indigenous], Pacific, and European/Other) in mortality for a country with high quality ethnicity data, using both standard and novel visualization methods. Methods Cohort studies of the entire New Zealand population were conducted, using probabilistically-linked Census and mortality data from 1981 to 2011 (68.9 million person years). Absolute (standardized rate difference) and relative (standardized rate ratio) inequalities were calculated, in 1–74-year-olds, for Māori and Pacific peoples in comparison to European/Other. Results All-cause mortality rates were highest for Māori, followed by Pacific peoples then European/Other, and declined in all three ethnic groups over time. Pacific peoples experienced the slowest annual percentage fall in mortality rates, then Māori, with European/Other having the highest percentage falls – resulting in widening relative inequalities. Absolute inequalities, however, for both Māori and Pacific males compared to European/Other have been falling since 1996. But for females, only Māori absolute inequalities (compared with European/Other) have been falling. Regarding cause of death, cancer is becoming a more important contributor than cardiovascular disease (CVD) to absolute inequalities, especially for Māori females. Conclusions We found declines in all-cause mortality rates, over time, for each ethnic group of interest. Ethnic mortality inequalities are generally stable or even falling in absolute terms, but have increased on a relative scale. The drivers of these inequalities in mortality are transitioning over time, away from CVD to cancer and diabetes; such transitions are likely in other countries, and warrant further research. To address these inequalities, policymakers need to enhance prevention activities and health care delivery, but also support wider improvements in educational achievement and socioeconomic position for highest need populations.

Abstract Background The World Health Organization recommends all countries consider screening for H. pylori to prevent gastric cancer. We therefore aimed to estimate the cost-effectiveness of a H. pylori serology-based screening program in New Zealand, a country that includes population groups with relatively high gastric cancer rates. Methods A Markov model was developed using life-tables and morbidity data from a national burden of disease study. The modelled screening program reduced the incidence of non-cardia gastric cancer attributable to H. pylori, if infection was identified by serology screening, and for the population expected to be reached by the screening program. A health system perspective was taken and detailed individual-level costing data was used. Results For adults aged 25–69 years old, nation-wide screening for H. pylori was found to have an incremental cost of US$196 million (95% uncertainty interval [95% UI]: $182–$211 million) with health gains of 14,200 QALYs (95% UI: 5,100–26,300). Cost per QALY gained was US$16,500 ($7,600–$38,400) in the total population and 17% (6%-29%) of future gastric cancer cases could be averted with lifetime follow-up. A targeted screening program for Māori only (indigenous population), was more cost-effective at US$8,000 ($3,800–$18,500) per QALY. Conclusions This modeling study found that H. pylori screening was likely to be cost-effective in this high-income country, particularly for the indigenous population. While further research is needed to help clarify the precise benefits, costs and adverse effects of such screening programs, there seems a reasonable case for policy-makers to give pilot programs consideration, particularly for any population groups with relatively elevated rates of gastric cancer.

Abstract Objective: To perform a comprehensive economic evaluation of border closure for an island nation in the face of severe pandemic scenarios. Methods: The costing tool developed by the New Zealand (NZ) Treasury (CBAx) was used for the analyses. Pandemic scenarios were as per previous work;1 epidemiological data were from past New Zealand influenza pandemics. Results: The net present value of successful border closure was NZ$7.86 billion for Scenario A (half the mortality rate of the 1918 influenza pandemic) and $144 billion for preventing a more severe pandemic (10 times the mortality of scenario A). Cost–utility analyses found border closure was relatively cost‐effective, at $14,400 per QALY gained in Scenario A, and cost‐saving for Scenario B (taking the societal perspective). Conclusions: This work quantifies the economic benefits and costs from border closure for New Zealand under specific assumptions in a generic but severe pandemic threat (e.g. influenza, synthetic bioweapon). Preparing for such a pandemic response seems wise for an island nation, although successful border closure may only be feasible if planned well ahead. Implications for public health: Policy makers responsible for generic pandemic planning should explore how border closure could be implemented, including practical and legal frameworks.

Abstract Objective: Drinking fountains are a public amenity that may help counter the obesogenic environment (sugary beverages) and reduce the risk of heat stroke during heat waves. As a case study, we aimed to survey all public fountains in a city: Wellington, New Zealand, and to determine the utility of Google Street View in studying drinking fountains. Methods: Using a sample of all public drinking fountains in a City Council map, a field observer assessed their exact location and tap functionality, and photographed them. Google Street View was also used by the field observer and an independent observer to attempt fountain detection. Results: There were 47 fountains, found in only 6% of children's playgrounds and 29% of the parks (for a sample of the 10 largest suburbs). While the field observations showed that all 74 taps at the fountains delivered water, only 47% had taps for easy filling of drinking water bottles, and only 15% had bowls for dogs to drink from. Visible discolouration from algae/metal degradation was adjacent to 47% of nozzles. Google Street View detection of fountains by the field observer was successful for 68% and for 52% by the independent observer. Conclusions: The fountains were of generally high quality, but discolouration around the nozzle was common. Implications for public health: Additional investment in public fountains may be needed.

Objectives In March 2018, New Zealand (NZ) introduced standardised tobacco packaging that also featured new pictorial warnings, with implementation completed by early June 2018. We evaluated how the new packaging affected tobacco pack displays in outdoor areas of hospitality venues.Design Before-and-after descriptive field observation study.Setting Central city area of the capital city of NZ (Wellington).Participants Observations of people smoking and tobacco packs were made at 56 hospitality venues with outdoor tables (2422 separate venue observations), after the introduction of standardised tobacco packaging. Comparisons were made with a prior study in the same setting, from a time when tobacco packaging still featured brand imagery.Results A total of 8191 patrons, 1113 active smokers and 889 packs and pouches (522 of known orientation) were observed over 2422 venue observations. There were 0.80 visible packs per active smoker in 2018, compared with 1.26 in 2014 (risk ratio (RR)=0.64, 95% CI 0.60 to 0.67, p

Summary: Background: Most evidence on health-related food taxes and subsidies relies on observational data and effects on single nutrients or foods instead of total diet. The aim of this study was to measure the effect of randomly assigned food price variations on consumer purchasing, where sets of prices emulated commonly discussed food tax and subsidy policies, including a subsidy on fruit and vegetables, a sweetened beverage tax, and taxes on foods according to sugar, sodium, and saturated fat content. Methods: In this study, adult participants (≥18 years) in New Zealand completed up to five weekly shops in a virtual supermarket. Each shopping occasion was randomly allocated to control (no change in prices) or one or more pricing options simulating the following: a fruit and vegetable subsidy (20%), a sweetened beverage tax (20% or 40%), a saturated fat tax (NZ$2 per 100 g or $4 per 100 g saturated fat), a salt tax ($0·02 per 100 mg or $0·04 per 100 mg sodium), or sugar tax ($0·40 per 100 g or $0·80 per 100 g sugar). The primary outcome was the healthiness of the total shopping basket for each weekly shop (% of total unit food items defined as healthy). Low and high price change options were combined in analyses (eg, results for a saturated fat tax are an average of $2 per 100 g or $4 per 100 g). Findings: Between Feb 1, and Dec 1, 2016, we randomly assigned 1132 shoppers, of whom 1038 (91·7%) completed at least one shop and 743 (71·6%) completed all five shops. Overall, data from 4258 shops were included in the analysis, including 645 control shops, 2545 shops where one policy was activated, and 1068 shops with two (or more) policies activated. In the control condition, 67·90% (SD 13·01) of food purchases were classified as healthy. Three of the five policies increased this proportion by a small, but significant amount (saturated fat tax mean absolute difference 1·77%, 95% CI 1·03 to 2·52, p