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Cet ouvrage de la collection Insee Méthodes fait suite au colloque « Vertus, limites et perspectives de la Comptabilité nationale » organisé par L'Association française de Comptabilité Nationale (ACN) en juin 2017.; National audience; There is currently a significant divergence in the way in which education expenditureis perceived in economic theory and in national accounting: the former treats it as investment,the latter as consumption. In fact, the accounting framework is still structured around two majorproduction factors (labour and physical capital), whereas human capital appears to be essentialif certain current phenomena are to be perceived accurately, notably the resurgence of inequality in certain countries. This paper presents the work undertaken to incorporate human capitalinto national accounts and explores the two main methods used: that based on costs (inputs)and that based on income (output). We go on to use the inputs method to estimate the saving rateof USA, French and British households when education and health expenditure is transferredto investment. Only the inclusion of health expenditure would enable the USA saving rate to beadjusted significantly.; Il existe aujourd’hui un décalage important dans la manière dont théorie économiqueet comptabilité nationale appréhendent les dépenses d’éducation : investissement pour lapremière, consommation pour la seconde. De fait, le cadre comptable reste structuré autourde deux grands facteurs de production (travail et capital physique), alors même que le capitalhumain semble indispensable pour appréhender correctement certains phénomènes actuels,notamment la résurgence des inégalités au sein de certains pays. Cet article présente les travauxentrepris pour intégrer le capital humain dans les comptes nationaux et expose les deux grandesméthodes utilisées : celle basée sur les coûts (inputs) et celle basée sur les revenus (output).Nous mobilisons ensuite la méthode des coûts pour estimer le taux d’épargne des ménagesaméricains, français et britanniques lorsque les dépenses d’éducation et de santé sont transféréesdans l’investissement. Seule la prise en compte des dépenses de santé permettrait de redressersignificativement le taux d’épargne américain.

In this paper, we focus on the real dimension of the price dynamics in Japan between 1980 and 2000. We use a panel industry dataset to analyze the impact of institutional and structural factors on the heterogeneous price dynamics of 10 manufacturing sectors. Although the evolution of unit labor costs seems to be the driving force, our structural analysis underlines the importance of the increasingly competitive environment, as captured by rising import penetration. Along with the decline of bargaining power of the workforce, this is at the origin of the deflationary pressures that characterized the Japanese economy during the Lost Decade., Special Issue "26th Symposium of Money, Banking and Finance" Guest Editors :Sébastien Galanti and Grégory Levieuge, info:eu-repo/semantics/published

A common explanation to German economic success for 10 years has been its ability to reform its labour institutions: from 1990, the percentage of firms abiding by the traditional sectoral contracting wage-setting system decreased significantly, allowing new firms to pay lower wages. This increasing heterogeneity of firms would explain, to some extent, the rising wage inequality observed in Germany for 25 years (Dustmann et al. 2009; Card et al. 2013). The Hartz laws (2003–2005) were also supposed to strengthen labour market flexibility by reducing reservation wage and implementing active labour market policy, by creating mini-jobs, etc. (Eichhorst and Marx 2009. The adoption of working time accounts also allowed to adjust employment volume by working hours rather than hiring and firing (Burda and Hunt 2011; Blot et al. 2015). This widespread set of reforms implemented by Germany would explain how Germany managed to cross the subprime crises without lasting fall of employment. This success also contrasts with “sclerotic” French economy, unable, according to many economists, to evolve so as to take globalization constraints into account and to reform its institutions (Hairault 2015) or to promote trust and cooperation (Aghion et al. 2010).

International audience; This paper focuses on the real - as opposed to the monetary - side of the economy to explain price dynamics in Japan between 1981 and 2001. We use a panel industry dataset to examine the impact of institutional and structural factors on the heterogeneous price dynamics in 10 manufacturing sectors. Although the evolution of unit labor costs may seem to be the driving force of these price dynamics, our analysis underlines the importance of the increasingly competitive environment, as captured by rising import penetration. Along with the decline of bargaining power of the workforce, this is a key factor underlying the deflationary pressures that characterized Japanese manufacturing industries in the 1990s.

This paper investigates the relevance of the No-Ponzi game condition for public debt (i.e. the public debt growth rates has to be lower than the real interest rate, a necessary assumption for Ricardian equivalence) and of the transversality condition for the GDP growth rate (i.e. the GDP growth rate has to be lower than the real interest rate). First, on the unbalanced panel of 21 countries from 1961 to 2010 available in OECD database, those two conditions were simultaneously validated only for 29% of the cases under examination. Second, those two conditions were more frequent in the 1980s and the 1990s when monetary policies were more restrictive. Third, in tune with the Keynesian view, when the real interest rate is higher than the GDP growth, it corresponds to 75% of the cases of the increases of the debt/GDP ratio but to only 43% of the cases of the decreases of the debt/GDP ratio (fiscal consolidations)., Le présent article évalue la pertinence de la condition de transversalité sur le taux de croissance du PIB (le taux de croissance du PIB ou du capital doit être inférieur au taux d'intérêt réel) et de la condition d'absence de système de Ponzi pour la dette publique (le taux de croissance de la dette doit être inférieur au taux d'intérêt réel). Cette dernière condition est nécessaire pour prouver l'équivalence Ricardienne. Les deux conditions n'ont été validées simultanément que dans 29% des cas pour l'échantillon non cylindré de 21 pays de 1961 à 2010 disponible auprès de l'OCDE. Elles ont été plus fréquentes lorsque les politiques monétaires sont devenues plus restrictives durant les années 1980 et 1990. En accord avec le point de vue keynésien, lorsque le taux d'intérêt est au-dessus du taux de croissance du PIB, il correspond à 75% des cas d'accroissement du ratio de dette publique rapportée au PIB en valeur mais à seulement 43% des cas de diminution du ratio de dette publique rapportée au PIB.

This paper investigates the relevance of the No-Ponzi game condition for public debt (i.e. the public debt growth rate has to be lower than the real interest rate, a necessary assumption for Ricardian equivalence) and of the transversality condition for the GDP growth rate (i.e. the GDP growth rate has to be lower than the real interest rate). First, on the unbalanced panel of 21 countries from 1961 to 2010 available in OECD database, those two conditions were simultaneously validated only for 29% of the cases under examination. Second, those two conditions were more frequent in the 1980s and the 1990s when monetary policies were more restrictive. Third, in tune with the Keynesian view, when the real interest rate is higher than the GDP growth, it corresponds to 75% of the cases of the increases of the debt/GDP ratio but to only 43% of the cases of the decreases of the debt/GDP ratio (fiscal consolidations).

This paper investigates the relevance of the No-Ponzi game condition for public debt (i.e. the public debt growth rate has to be lower than the real interest rate) and the transversality condition for the GDP growth rate (i.e. the GDP growth rate has to be lower than the real interest rate). First, it appears in OECD data, that over the last 40 years, those conditions were validated only for 24% of the cases under examination. Second, the No-Ponzi and the transversality conditions were more frequent in the 1980s and the 1990s following changes towards more restrictive monetary policies. Third, in line with the Keynesian view, the data show that cases where the real interest rate is lower than the GDP growth rate may also lead to public debt consolidation (i.e. a decrease in the debt to GDP ratio) in 26% of the cases, compared with only 19% corresponding to the textbook case in which both GDP and public debt growth rates are below the interest rate.

The aim of this short article is to build a model in order to take into account capital scrapping (or bankruptcies) in an income distribution and growth model. The reason to introduce capital scrapping results from the intuition of some inconsistencies between theoretical predictions and empirical facts: the rate of capacity utilisation data often exhibit a greater stability than it is expected after reading theoretical models. We think that capital scrapping might contribute to stabilise the utilisation rate. The idea is as follows: an increase of the profit share implies a decrease of the rate of capacity utilisation which then involves a rise in capital scrapping (or in the rate of bankruptcies).

DISTRIBUTION AND GROWTH IN FRANCE (1982-2006): A COINTEGRATED VAR APPROACH. We propose a simple Post Keynesian model so as to test whether French economy is profit or wage-led i.e. whether a profit share increase has a positive or negative impact on economic growth. In that perspective, we estimate the three behaviour equations of our model (consumption, investment and net exports) by using a VECM. Then we solve our model by using the estimated coefficients and can then conclude on the nature of the French economic regime. Our main conclusion is that French economy would be weakly profit-led: a one point increase of profit share increases economic growth of only 0.1 %. This result might be explained by both weak multiplier (in an open economy) and accelerator effects in the estimated model., A l'aide d'un modèle postkeynésien, nous cherchons à déterminer si l'économie française est profit-led ou wage-led, c'est-à-dire si une hausse de la part des profits a un effet positif ou négatif sur la croissance économique. Nous évaluons les trois équations de comportement de notre modèle (consommation, investissement et exportations nettes) à l'aide d'un VECM, puis nous résolvons notre modèle en utilisant les coefficients estimés. Notre principale conclusion est que l'économie française serait faiblement profit-led : une hausse d'un point de la part des profits n'améliore la croissance que de 0.1 %. Ce résultat s'expliquerait par le fait que les effets multiplicateur (en économie ouverte) et accélérateur du modèle sont très faibles.

This paper aims to provide an alternative framework to previous studies of deflation in Japan. We focus on the real dimension of the price dynamics and propose an imperfect competition model, which describes a rent economy, where the formation of prices can be separated into the markup (level of the rent in the goods market) and the unit labor cost (distribution of the rent in the labor market). We use a panel industry dataset to analyze the impact of institutional and structural factors on the heterogeneous price dynamics of 10 manufacturing sectors. Although the evolution of unit labor costs seems to be the driving force of price dynamics in the manufacturing industry, our structural analysis leads to consider the importance of the increasingly competitive environment, as captured by rising import penetration. Along with the decline of bargaining power of the workforce, this is at the origin of the deflationary pressures that characterized the Japanese economy during the Lost Decade.

This paper refers to a few recent studies, which have focused on methodological issues related to the estimation of the wage share variations, to compare the evolutions in France and former West Germany since 1970. It is shown that the usual method overestimates the long run drop of wage share in both countries but that the magnitude and thus the contribution of different biases are quite different in France and Germany. However no bias can explain the sharp drop of wage share in Germany since 2001, which has to be analysed within the framework of the euro area.

In this article, we modify the saving function of the Bhaduri-Marglin model and obtain a hump-shaped curve of output in function of wage-share: the nature -exhilarationist or stagnationist- of the economic regime depends on the level of income distribution. Economic policy can thus consist of shifting income distribution by redistributive policy in order to stimulate output. These conclusions remain valid in open economy, even though the exhilarationist regime is then more likely to arise. At last, we adopt a dynamic perspective by adding a wage equation to the model, which is thus characterised either by cycles or an underemployment equilibrium.

We propose a dynamic model which deals with the impact of income distribution variations on growth. In that goal, we use two models : the classical Goodwin model (1967) and the Bhaduri-Marglin model (1990), which also focuses on the links between income distribution and growth, but in a Keynesian frame. We introduce Keynesian demand constraints within the Goodwin model and modify its investment function, which becomes non-linear. With these new hypotheses, we show that Goodwin cycles may either be maintained or disappear. If most trajectories oscillate around a classical equilibrium, the economy may also fall during a cycle into a Keynesian unemployment state. In that case, cycle dynamic is broken because wages are squeezed whereas the economy is in a wage-led regime. This model allows to capture some specific characteristics of the French economic situation that took place in the 1980s-1990s.