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The study aims to analyze climate variability and farmers’ perception in Southern Ethiopia. Gridded annual temperature and precipitation data were obtained from the National Meteorological Agency (NMA) of Ethiopia for the period between 1983 and 2014. Using a multistage sampling technique, 403 farm households were surveyed to substantiate farmers’ perceptions about climate variability and change. The study applied a nonparametric Sen’s slope estimator and Mann–Kendall’s trend tests to detect the magnitude and statistical significance of climate variability and binary logit regression model to find factors influencing farm households’ perceptions about climate variability over three agroecological zones (AEZs). The trend analysis reveals that positive trends were observed in the annual maximum temperature, 0.02°C/year (p<0.01) in the lowland and 0.04°C/year (p<0.01) in the highland AEZs. The positive trend in annual minimum temperature was consistent in all AEZs and significant (p<0.01). An upward trend in the annual total rainfall (10 mm/year) (p<0.05) was recorded in the midland AEZ. Over 60% of farmers have perceived increasing temperature and decreasing rainfall in all AEZs. However, farmers’ perception about rainfall in the midland AEZ contradicts with meteorological analysis. Results from the binary logit model inform that farmers’ climate change perceptions are significantly influenced by their access to climate and market information, agroecology, education, agricultural input, and village market distance. Based on these results, it is recommended to enhance farm households’ capacity by providing timely weather and climate information along with institutional actions such as agricultural extension services.

Fertilizer use in Ethiopia has nearly quintupled since official elimination of direct input subsidies in the early 1990s. During this time, policies changed from liberalization, with both private and public sector participation, to a government monopoly over imports along with exclusive marketing through farmers’ cooperatives. This article presents estimates of detail costs and margins in the value chain, econometrically derived profitability and yield responses, as well as costs of the government's fertilizer promotion policies. Results suggest that (a) irrespective of the methods of calculation, fertilizer use in major cereal is profitable; (b) while there is no official subsidy program, fertilizer promotion has involved large fiscal costs—estimated at US$40 million per year since 2008; and (c) there has been a mismatch between government's policy targets and the effective fertilizer demand, resulting in large carryover stock with estimated implicit costs of US$30 million per year during 2008–2011. Areas of policy attention, value chain improvements, and ongoing efforts to improve for fertilizer use and profitability are discussed.

Building sustainable resilience for food security and livelihood dynamics is explored using the Ethiopia Rural Household Survey panel data. Household resilience scores are derived from measures taken to protect against shocks. The impact of several demographic and socio-economic factors on resilience dynamics is then tested. The result shows that the experience of resilience in the past leads to a subsequent higher chance of continuing to be resilient (‘true state-dependence’). It also demonstrates that measures that promote asset creation, diversified enterprises and access to improved technologies are positively and significantly correlated with dynamics of building resilience for food security., JRC.D.5-Food Security

This report provides a global overview of food insecurity due to different crises and natural disasters to support programming of the Pro-resilience Actions (PRO-ACT) funding mechanism, a component of the Global Public Goods and Challenges (GPGC) thematic programme of the European Union. The analysis covers the period January 2015-January 2016 that has been marked by food crises in several countries because of extreme weather events due the El Niño phenomenon but also because of conflicts and political crises. In a number of countries, in particular in West Africa, food insecurity remains a major concern because of chronic vulnerability despite good crop production in 2015., JRC.H.4-Monitoring Agricultural Resources

Since the publication of the World Development Report 2008, two related strands of research have emerged—one on the validity of smallholder-led development strategy and the other on agricultural intensification under population pressure. The former casts doubt about the role of agriculture in economic development in smallholders dominated countries and the later provides evidence that are contrary to earlier findings on induced innovation theory. Using a unique panel dataset, we examine whether these arguments are valid for Bangladesh—a densely populated country that has experienced significant growth in recent decades. The results suggest that (1) agriculture as a source of income declined significantly over the past two decades; (2) the operated farm size stopped declining in the late 1980s; and (3) that population density relates positively with a host of agricultural intensifications indicators with no evidence of threshold. Historical data on real prices, domestic surpluses, and other macroeconomic variables lend further support to these results. Thus, the paper concludes that small-holding was not a deterrent to structural changes in Bangladesh thus far and that agricultural intensification continued amid intense population pressure.

Fertilizer use in Ethiopia has almost quintupled since the official elimination of input subsidy programs. Yet, application rates remain far below recommended level and, given limited scope for area expansion, fertilizer promotion continues to be the central focus for enhancing agricultural productivity. Unlike many other developing countries, Ethiopia has moved from partial liberalization in 1990s to government monopoly control over imports, with exclusive marketing through farmers’ organizations, since 2008. In 2010, the government embarked on a new policy initiative, the Growth and Transformation Program, which sets annual production targets for cereals by regions. In line with the objectives of this program, government increased fertilizer imports from 440 thousand tons in 2008 to about 890 thousand in 2012. However, fertilizer availability (import plus change in stocks) far exceeded total consumption resulting in large carryover stocks reaching almost half a million tons — worth roughly US$350 million — sitting in the cooperative warehouses throughout the country in 2012. This is the context in which the Ethiopian Agricultural Transformation Agency requested IFPRI to undertake a study analyzing policies, the value chain constraints, profitability of fertilizer, and opportunities for further expansion of fertilizer use. The study involved interviewing a large number of stakeholders in fertilizer value chain, collection of data on costs and margins from the key actors in the value chain, as well as household survey data. In this paper, we present the key findings from that study. In particular, the paper presents estimates of detail costs and margins in the value chain, econometrically derived profitability and yield responses, and the costs of government’s fertilizer promotion policies. Based the estimates of the costs and margins in the fertilizer value chain, the study argues that the current value chain will not be sustainable unless the scale of operation, as well institutional capacity, of the primary cooperatives goes up. The estimates of profitability suggest that fertilizer use in major cereals is profitable, irrespective of the method of calculation/estimation, implying that recent challenge with carryover stock reflects the institutional and value chain constraints. With regards of program costs, this study finds that while there is no official subsidy program, fertilizer promotion has involved large fiscal costs — estimated at US$40 million per year since 2008. Finally, for further expansion of fertilizer use, the study makes two recommendations: (a) allowing private sector to participate in the domestic markets alongside cooperatives; and (b) paying more attention to other cereals — such as barley and sorghum — where fertilizer use is close to zero.

I prezzi dei generi alimentari sono cresciuti in modo considerevole in Etiopia a partire dal 2004. Questa tesi esamina a fondo gli effetti distributivi degli alti prezzi dei generi alimentari nelle zone rurali dell’Etiopia. Utilizzando il Rapporto di Beneficio Netto non parametrico ed il Sistema Quadratico di Domanda Quasi Ideale nonché stimando la Variazione Compensata, dimostra come gli alti prezzi dei generi alimentari possano avere effetti positivi sul benessere sociale delle famiglie rurali a livello aggregato. Tuttavia, i guadagni non sono distribuiti uniformemente tra le famiglie; una significativa percentuale di esse sono compratrici nette di cereali e potrebbero essere sfavorite da un aumento dei prezzi dei cereali qualora non beneficiassero di un aumento del reddito associato ad attività diverse dall’agricoltura. Teoreticamente, le famiglie rurali dovrebbero beneficiare di un aumento del prezzo dei generi alimentari poiché sono sia produttori sia consumatori dei prodotti. Un aumento della produttività agricola, attraverso l’intensificazione e la diversificazione delle produzioni, è un’importante strumento di politica economica che può limitare gli effetti negativi, di breve e di lungo periodo, sugli acquirenti netti rurali di generi alimentari derivanti da un aumento del loro prezzo. La tesi esamina anche la resilienza alla mancanza di cibo, la stagionalità nel consumo del cibo e la partecipazione nel mercato così come il ruolo dei trasferimenti monetari e delle preferenze dei beneficiari degli stessi., Food prices in Ethiopia considerably rose since 2004. This thesis thoroughly examines the distributional impacts of high food prices in rural Ethiopia. Using the non-parametric Net Benefit Ratio analysis as well as Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System and estimating Compensated Variation, it shows high food prices have positive impact on the welfare of rural households at aggregate levels. The gains, however, are not evenly distributed among households; large proportion of them are net cereal buyers (major staples) and could be adversely affected by rising cereal prices unless compensated by increase in income from off-farm activities. Theoretically, rural households should benefit from rising food prices as they are both consumers and producers of the products. Promoting agricultural productivity, through intensification and diversification, is an important policy tool to overcome short and long-run negative impacts of high food prices on rural net buyers. It also examines resilience to food insecurity, food consumption seasonality and market participation as well as cash transfers and beneficiaries preferences.

Ethiopia has experienced high food prices, especially since 2005. This paper examines the welfare impacts of rising food prices in rural Ethiopia using Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System (QUAIDS) approach controlled for expenditure endogeniety and zero consumption expenditure. The elasticity coefficients from QUAIDS are used to estimate Compensated Variations (CV), which explicitly accounts for profit function and substitution effects. The study uses Ethiopia Rural Household Survey (ERHS) panel data, encompassing both low and high price periods. Prices of all food and agricultural products increased during the entire survey period of 1994 to 2009 but the increases were much higher in recent years, 2004 – 2009, compared to the earlier period of 1994 - 2004. The results have shown that the price hikes in recent years increased welfare gain of rural households by about 10.5% on aggregate, as compared to less than 1% for the reference period (1994 - 2004). The welfare gains further improved to 18% for the high price period and 7.2% for the low price period with substitution effects. It could be argued that the welfare gains at aggregate level is not equally distributed among rural households as 37 to 46% of the sample households were net-cereal buyers (major staple crops) during the survey period. However, the analysis revealed that high food and agricultural prices benefit not only net-cereal sellers but also autarkic and net-cereal buying families. Autarkic households and net-cereal buyers apparently seem to have benefited from high prices of commodities such as pluses, fruits & vegetables, live animals and animal products. They also appear to have gained from increased off-farm income as average income from wage and transfer has indeed increased in 2009. Only very poor families with limited farm and non-farm income need to be supported with safety net programs (both input and consumption support). In the long-run, high agricultural prices would encourage net-sellers to expand production, leading to lower food prices for net-buyers. More importantly, many current net buyers could become net-sellers if grain prices are stable and remunerative for producers.

Using year long intensive monitoring rural household survey, the study has shown that while covariant shocks lead to change in consumption patterns, idiosyncratic shocks appear to be fully insured using various copying strategies. However, households were less likely sell livestock to smooth income shock during survey periods. They seek for wage employments but are compelled to sell livestock in absence of such opportunities. Impact of changes in total household income on consumption with control for idiosyncratic shocks were also investigated and found that households are smoothing their consumption evenly across time. Further test of consumption smoothing indicated that there is a limit to insure against shocks through better-off households within communities. Disaggregating into asset poor and nonpoor, the study has also shown that asset poor households are more diversifying income sources than asset nonpoor. However, most of them have low returns; and hence they are more vulnerable than asset nonpoor households.