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Abstract The conservation and restoration of forest ecosystems require detailed knowledge of the native plant compositions. Here, we map global forest tree composition and assess the impacts of historical forest cover loss and climate change on trees. The global occupancy of 10,590 tree species reveals complex taxonomic and phylogenetic gradients determining a local signature of tree lineage assembly. Species occupancy analyses indicate that historical forest loss has significantly restricted the potential suitable range of tree species in all forest biomes. Nevertheless, tropical moist and boreal forest biomes display the lowest level of range restriction and harbor extremely large ranged tree species, albeit with a stark contrast in richness and composition. Climate change simulations indicate that forest biomes are projected to differ in their response to climate change, with the highest predicted species loss in tropical dry and Mediterranean ecoregions. Our findings highlight the need for preserving the remaining large forest biomes while regenerating degraded forests in a way that provides resilience against climate change.

Abstract The emergence of alternative stable states in forest systems has significant implications for the functioning and structure of the terrestrial biosphere, yet empirical evidence remains scarce. Here, we combine global forest biodiversity observations and simulations to test for alternative stable states in the presence of evergreen and deciduous forest types. We reveal a bimodal distribution of forest leaf types across temperate regions of the Northern Hemisphere that cannot be explained by the environment alone, suggesting signatures of alternative forest states. Moreover, we empirically demonstrate the existence of positive feedbacks in tree growth, recruitment and mortality, with trees having 4–43% higher growth rates, 14–17% higher survival rates and 4–7 times higher recruitment rates when they are surrounded by trees of their own leaf type. Simulations show that the observed positive feedbacks are necessary and sufficient to generate alternative forest states, which also lead to dependency on history (hysteresis) during ecosystem transition from evergreen to deciduous forests and vice versa. We identify hotspots of bistable forest types in evergreen-deciduous ecotones, which are likely driven by soil-related positive feedbacks. These findings are integral to predicting the distribution of forest biomes, and aid to our understanding of biodiversity, carbon turnover, and terrestrial climate feedbacks.

Abstract In the age of big data, scientific progress is fundamentally limited by our capacity to extract critical information. Here, we map fine-grained spatiotemporal distributions for thousands of species, using deep neural networks (DNNs) and ubiquitous citizen science data. Based on 6.7 M observations, we jointly model the distributions of 2477 plant species and species aggregates across Switzerland with an ensemble of DNNs built with different cost functions. We find that, compared to commonly-used approaches, multispecies DNNs predict species distributions and especially community composition more accurately. Moreover, their design allows investigation of understudied aspects of ecology. Including seasonal variations of observation probability explicitly allows approximating flowering phenology; reweighting predictions to mirror cover-abundance allows mapping potentially canopy-dominant tree species nationwide; and projecting DNNs into the future allows assessing how distributions, phenology, and dominance may change. Given their skill and their versatility, multispecies DNNs can refine our understanding of the distribution of plants and well-sampled taxa in general.

Abstract Rising temperatures are leading to increased prevalence of warm-affinity species in ecosystems, known as thermophilisation. However, factors influencing variation in thermophilisation rates among taxa and ecosystems, particularly freshwater communities with high diversity and high population decline, remain unclear. We analysed compositional change over time in 7123 freshwater and 6201 terrestrial, mostly temperate communities from multiple taxonomic groups. Overall, temperature change was positively linked to thermophilisation in both realms. Extirpated species had lower thermal affinities in terrestrial communities but higher affinities in freshwater communities compared to those persisting over time. Temperature change’s impact on thermophilisation varied with community body size, thermal niche breadth, species richness and baseline temperature; these interactive effects were idiosyncratic in the direction and magnitude of their impacts on thermophilisation, both across realms and taxonomic groups. While our findings emphasise the challenges in predicting the consequences of temperature change across communities, conservation strategies should consider these variable responses when attempting to mitigate climate-induced biodiversity loss.

Key message Evolving societal demands and accelerated ecological dynamics due to global change are rapidly altering forest ecosystems and their services. This has prompted the need for advancing forest inventorying and monitoring initatives to expand their scope, improve data collection, foster scientific understanding, and better inform policy responses. Here, we discuss the collaborative processes followed to develop an Advanced Inventorying and Monitoring (AIM) system for Swiss forests. Further, we provide the key messages that emerged from this process which can be of interest to those involved in similar processes at the national/international level.

Abstract Standard and easily accessible cross-thematic spatial databases are key resources in ecological research. In Switzerland, as in many other countries, available data are scattered across computer servers of research institutions and are rarely provided in standard formats (e.g., different extents or projections systems, inconsistent naming conventions). Consequently, their joint use can require heavy data management and geomatic operations. Here, we introduce SWECO25, a Swiss-wide raster database at 25-meter resolution gathering 5,265 layers. The 10 environmental categories included in SWECO25 are: geologic, topographic, bioclimatic, hydrologic, edaphic, land use and cover, population, transportation, vegetation, and remote sensing. SWECO25 layers were standardized to a common grid sharing the same resolution, extent, and geographic coordinate system. SWECO25 includes the standardized source data and newly calculated layers, such as those obtained by computing focal or distance statistics. SWECO25 layers were validated by a data integrity check, and we verified that the standardization procedure had a negligible effect on the output values. SWECO25 is available on Zenodo and is intended to be updated and extended regularly.

Abstract The Arctic ecosystems and their species are exposed to amplified climate warming and, in some regions, to rapidly developing economic activities. This study assesses, models, and maps the geographic patterns of community‐level plant species richness in the Western Siberian Arctic and estimates the relative impact of environmental and anthropogenic factors driving these patterns. With our study, we aim at contributing toward conservation efforts for Arctic plant diversity in the Western Siberian Arctic. We investigated the relative importance of environmental and anthropogenic predictors of community‐level plant species richness in the Western Siberian Arctic using macroecological models trained with an extensive geobotanical dataset. We included vascular plants, mosses and lichens in our analysis, as non‐vascular plants substantially contribute to species richness and ecosystem functions in the Arctic. We found that the mean community‐level plant species richness in this vast Arctic region does not decrease with increasing latitude. Instead, we identified an increase in species richness from South‐West to North‐East, which can be well explained by environmental factors. We found that paleoclimatic factors exhibit higher explained deviance compared to contemporary climate predictors, potentially indicating a lasting impact of ancient climate on tundra plant species richness. We also show that the existing protected areas cover only a small fraction of the regions with highest species richness. Our results reveal complex spatial patterns of community‐level species richness in the Western Siberian Arctic. We show that climatic factors such as temperature (including paleotemperature) and precipitation are the main drivers of plant species richness in this area, and the role of relief is clearly secondary. We suggest that while community‐level plant species richness is mostly driven by environmental factors, an improved spatial sampling will be needed to robustly and more precisely assess the impact of human activities on community‐level species richness patterns. Our approach and results can be used to design conservation strategies and to investigate drivers of plant species richness in other arctic regions.

Abstract Climate is an important limiting factor of species’ niches and it is therefore regularly included in ecological applications such as species distribution models (SDMs). Climate predictors are often used in the form of long-term mean values, yet many species experience wide climatic variation over their lifespan and within their geographical range which is unlikely captured by long-term means. Further, depending on their physiology, distinct groups of species cope with climate variability differently. Ectothermic species, which are directly dependent on the thermal environment are expected to show a different response to temporal or spatial variability in temperature than endothermic groups that can decouple their internal temperature from that of their surroundings. Here, we explore the degree to which spatial variability and long-term temporal variability in temperature and precipitation change niche estimates for ectothermic (730 amphibian, 1276 reptile), and endothermic (1961 mammal) species globally. We use three different species distribution modelling (SDM) algorithms to quantify the effect of spatial and temporal climate variability, based on global range maps of all species and climate data from 1979 to 2013. All SDMs were cross-validated and accessed for their performance using the Area under the Curve (AUC) and the True Skill Statistic (TSS). The mean performance of SDMs using only climatic means as predictors was TSS = 0.71 and AUC = 0.90. The inclusion of spatial variability offers a significant gain in SDM performance (mean TSS = 0.74, mean AUC = 0.92), as does the inclusion of temporal variability (mean TSS = 0.80, mean AUC = 0.94). Including both spatial and temporal variability in SDMs shows the highest scores in AUC and TSS. Accounting for temporal rather than spatial variability in climate improved the SDM prediction especially in ectotherm groups such as amphibians and reptiles, while for endothermic mammals no such improvement was observed. These results indicate that including long term climate interannual climate variability into niche estimations matters most for ectothermic species that cannot decouple their physiology from the surrounding environment as endothermic species can.

Abstract Floristic regions reflect the geographic organization of floras and provide essential tools for biological studies. Previous global floristic regions are generally based on floristic endemism, lacking a phylogenetic consideration that captures floristic evolution. Moreover, the contribution of tectonic dynamics and historical and current climate to the division of floristic regions remains unknown. Here, by integrating global distributions and a phylogeny of 12,664 angiosperm genera, we update global floristic regions and explore their temporal changes. Eight floristic realms and 16 nested sub-realms are identified. The previously-defined Holarctic, Neotropical and Australian realms are recognized, but Paleotropical, Antarctic and Cape realms are not. Most realms have formed since Paleogene. Geographic isolation induced by plate tectonics dominates the formation of floristic realms, while current/historical climate has little contribution. Our study demonstrates the necessity of integrating distributions and phylogenies in regionalizing floristic realms and the interplay of macroevolutionary and paleogeographic processes in shaping regional floras.

Climatic variables are useful but often weak predictors of plant functional trait variation across ecosystems. Here the authors investigate how assigning plant communities to a habitat hierarchy improves the explanatory power of climate-trait relationships at the continental scale.

Aquatic (blue) and terrestrial (green) food webs are part of the same landscape, but it remains unclear whether they respond similarly to shared environmental gradients. Using long-term monitoring data from Switzerland and a metaweb approach, this study reveals how inferred blue and green food webs exhibit different properties along an elevation gradient and among land-use types.

Here, the authors use full-plastome phylogenomics and multiclade comparative models to reconstruct the tempo and drivers of six European Alpine angiosperm lineages before and during the Pleistocene. They find that geographic divergence and bedrock shifts drive speciation events, while diversification rates remained steady.

Measurement(s) hydrological precipitation process Technology Type(s) cloud-cover informed downscaling Factor Type(s) temporal interval • geographic location Sample Characteristic - Environment climate system • cloud Sample Characteristic - Location global Machine-accessible metadata file describing the reported data: https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.16910344

Warming will affect marine plankton biomass, but also its diversity and community composition in poorly understood ways. Here, the authors model the spatial distribution of 860 marine plankton species from 10 functional groups and identify the future hotspots of climate change impacts under RCP8.5.

The Environmental Data Portal EnviDat aims to fuse data publication repository functionalities with next-generation web-based environmental geospatial information systems (web-EGIS) and Earth Observation (EO) data cube functionalities. User requirements related to mapping and visualization represent a major challenge for current environmental data portals. The new Cloud Optimized Raster Encoding (CORE) format enables an efficient storage and management of gridded data by applying video encoding algorithms. Inspired by the cloud optimized GeoTIFF (COG) format, the design of CORE is based on the same principles that enable efficient workflows on the cloud, addressing web-EGIS visualization challenges for large environmental time series in geosciences. CORE is a web-native streamable format that can compactly contain raster imagery as a data hypercube. It enables simultaneous exchange, preservation, and fast visualization of time series raster data in environmental repositories. The CORE format specifications are open source and can be used by other platforms to manage and visualize large environmental time series.

Abstract Background The orogeny of the eastern Mediterranean region has substantially affected ecological speciation patterns, particularly of mountain-dwelling species. Mountain vipers of the genus Montivipera are among the paramount examples of Mediterranean neo-endemism, with restricted ranges in the mountains of Anatolia, the Levant, Caucasus, Alborz, and Zagros. Here we explore the phylogenetic and ecological diversification of Montivipera to reconstruct its ecological niche evolution and biogeographic history. Using 177 sequences of three mitochondrial genes, a dated molecular phylogeny of mountain vipers was reconstructed. Based on 320 occurrence points within the entire range of the genus and six climatic variables, ecological niches were modelled and used to infer ancestral niche occupancy. In addition, the biogeographic history and ancestral states of the species were reconstructed across climate gradients. Results Dated phylogenetic reconstruction revealed that the ancestor of mountain vipers split into two major clades at around 12.18 Mya followed by multiple vicariance events due to rapid orogeny. Montivipera colonised coastal regions from a mountain-dwelling ancestor. We detected a highly complex ecological niche evolution of mountain vipers to temperature seasonality, a variable that also showed a strong phylogenetic signal and high contribution in niche occupation. Conclusion Raising mountain belts in the Eastern Mediterranean region and subsequent remarkable changes in temperature seasonality have led to the formation of important centres of diversification and endemism in this biodiversity hotspot. High rates of niche conservatism, low genetic diversity, and segregation of ranges into the endemic distribution negatively influenced the adaptive capacity of mountain vipers. We suggest that these species should be considered as evolutionary significant units and priority species for conservation in Mediterranean mountain ecosystems.

How past climate change has affected biodiversity over large spatial scales remains underexplored. Here, the authors find marked homogenization in flowering plant phylogenetic diversity across Central and Northern Europe linked to rapid climate change and large distances to glacial refugia.

The relationships between ecosystem productivity and plant diversity are complex. Here, the authors show that sites with high productivity typically have reduced species diversity but high functional and phylogenetic diversity, potentially owing to the creation of additional niche space.

Populations of large mammals have declined at alarming rates, especially in areas with intensified land use where species can only persist in small habitat fragments. To support conservation planning, we developed habitat suitability models for the Walia ibex (Capra walie), an endangered wild goat endemic to the Simen Mountains, Ethiopia. We calibrated several models that differ in statistical properties to estimate the spatial extent of suitable habitats of the Walia ibex in the Simen Mountains, as well as in other parts of the Ethiopian highlands to assess potentially suitable areas outside the current distribution range of the species. We further addressed the potential consequences of future climate change using a climate model with four emission scenarios. Model projections estimated the potential suitable habitat under current climate to 501–672 km2 in Simen and 6,251–7,732 km2 in other Ethiopian mountains. Under projected climate change by 2,080, the suitable habitat became larger in Simen but smaller in other parts of Ethiopia. The projected expansion in Simen is contrary to the general expectation of shrinking suitable habitats for high-elevation species under climate warming and may partly be due to the ruggedness of these particular mountains. The Walia ibex has a wide altitudinal range and is able to exploit very steep slopes, allowing it to track the expected vegetation shift to higher altitudes. However, this potential positive impact may not last long under continued climate warming, as the species will not have much more new space left to colonize. Our study indicates that the current distribution range can be substantially increased by reintroducing and/or translocating the species to other areas with suitable habitat. Indeed, to increase the viability and prospects for survival of this flagship species, we strongly recommend human-assisted reintroduction to other Ethiopian mountains. Emulating the successful reintroduction of the Alpine ibex that has spread from a single mountain in Italy to its historical ranges of the Alps in Europe might contribute to saving the Walia ibex from extinction.

Mismatches between the pace of climate change and plant responses may lead to delayed upslope shifts or extinction of mountain species. Here the authors investigate 135 alpine plant species, finding that extinction debts are more common among cold-adapted plants and colonization credits among warm-adapted plants.

Attaining global biodiversity projections requires the use of various species distribution and climate modelling and scenario approaches. Here the authors report that model choice can significantly impact results, with particularly uncertainty arising from choice of species distribution model and emission scenario.

Phylogenetic turnover measures the evolutionary distance between species assemblages. Here, Saladin et al. analyze the phylogenetic turnover of European tetrapods after controlling for geographic distance and show greater roles of environment in recent evolutionary history for ectotherms than for endotherms.

Abstract Disentangling the different processes structuring ecological communities is a long‐standing challenge. In species‐rich ecosystems, most emphasis has so far been given to environmental filtering and competition processes, while facilitative interactions between species remain insufficiently studied. Here, we propose an analysis framework that not only allows for identifying pairs of facilitating and facilitated species, but also estimates the strength of facilitation and its variation along environmental gradients. Our framework combines the analysis of both co‐occurrence and co‐abundance patterns using a moving window approach along environmental gradients to control for potentially confounding effects of environmental filtering in the co‐abundance analysis. We first validate our new approach against community assembly simulations, and exemplify its potential on a large 1,134 plant community plots dataset. Our results generally show that facilitation intensity was strongest under cold stress, whereas the proportion of facilitating and facilitated species was higher under drought stress. Moreover, the functional distance between individual facilitated species and their facilitating species significantly changed along the temperature–moisture gradient, and seemed to influence facilitation intensity, although no general positive or general negative trend was discernible among species. The main advantages of our robust framework are as follows: It enables detecting facilitating and facilitated species in species‐rich systems, and it allows identifying the directionality and intensity of facilitation in species pairs as well as its variation across long environmental gradients. It thus opens numerous opportunities for incorporating functional (and phylogenetic) information in the analysis of facilitation patterns. Our case study indicated high complexity in facilitative interactions across the stress gradient and revealed new evidence that facilitation, similarly to competition, can operate between functionally similar and dissimilar species. Extending the analyses to other taxa and ecosystems will foster our understanding how complex interspecific interactions promote biodiversity.

Abstract Background The taxonomy of pines (genus Pinus) is widely accepted and a robust gene tree based on entire plastome sequences exists. However, there is a large discrepancy in estimated divergence times of major pine clades among existing studies, mainly due to differences in fossil placement and dating methods used. We currently lack a dated molecular phylogeny that makes use of the rich pine fossil record, and this study is the first to estimate the divergence dates of pines based on a large number of fossils (21) evenly distributed across all major clades, in combination with applying both node and tip dating methods. Results We present a range of molecular phylogenetic trees of Pinus generated within a Bayesian framework. We find the origin of crown Pinus is likely up to 30 Myr older (Early Cretaceous) than inferred in most previous studies (Late Cretaceous) and propose generally older divergence times for major clades within Pinus than previously thought. Our age estimates vary significantly between the different dating approaches, but the results generally agree on older divergence times. We present a revised list of 21 fossils that are suitable to use in dating or comparative analyses of pines. Conclusions Reliable estimates of divergence times in pines are essential if we are to link diversification processes and functional adaptation of this genus to geological events or to changing climates. In addition to older divergence times in Pinus, our results also indicate that node age estimates in pines depend on dating approaches and the specific fossil sets used, reflecting inherent differences in various dating approaches. The sets of dated phylogenetic trees of pines presented here provide a way to account for uncertainties in age estimations when applying comparative phylogenetic methods.

Genome skimming has the potential for generating large data sets for DNA barcoding and wider biodiversity genomic studies, particularly via the assembly and annotation of full chloroplast (cpDNA) and nuclear ribosomal DNA (nrDNA) sequences. We compare the success of genome skims of 2051 herbarium specimens from Norway/Polar regions with 4604 freshly collected, silica gel dried specimens mainly from the European Alps and the Carpathians. Overall, we were able to assemble the full chloroplast genome for 67% of the samples and the full nrDNA cluster for 86%. Average insert length, cover and full cpDNA and rDNA assembly were considerably higher for silica gel dried than herbarium-preserved material. However, complete plastid genomes were still assembled for 54% of herbarium samples compared to 70% of silica dried samples. Moreover, there was comparable recovery of coding genes from both tissue sources (121 for silica gel dried and 118 for herbarium material) and only minor differences in assembly success of standard barcodes between silica dried (89% ITS2, 96% matK and rbcL) and herbarium material (87% ITS2, 98% matK and rbcL). The success rate was > 90% for all three markers in 1034 of 1036 genera in 160 families, and only Boraginaceae worked poorly, with 7 genera failing. Our study shows that large-scale genome skims are feasible and work well across most of the land plant families and genera we tested, independently of material type. It is therefore an efficient method for increasing the availability of plant biodiversity genomic data to support a multitude of downstream applications.

Reconstructing the processes that have shaped the emergence of biodiversity gradients is critical to understand the dynamics of diversification of life on Earth. Islands have traditionally been used as model systems to unravel the processes shaping biological diversity. MacArthur and Wilson's island biogeographic model predicts diversity to be based on dynamic interactions between colonization and extinction rates, while treating islands themselves as geologically static entities. The current spatial configuration of islands should influence meta-population dynamics, but long-term geological changes within archipelagos are also expected to have shaped island biodiversity, in part by driving diversification. Here, we compare two mechanistic models providing inferences on species richness at a biogeographic scale: a mechanistic spatial-temporal model of species diversification and a spatial meta-population model. While the meta-population model operates over a static landscape, the diversification model is driven by changes in the size and spatial configuration of islands through time. We compare the inferences of both models to floristic diversity patterns among land patches of the Indo-Australian Archipelago. Simulation results from the diversification model better matched observed diversity than a meta-population model constrained only by the contemporary landscape. The diversification model suggests that the dynamic re-positioning of islands promoting land disconnection and reconnection induced an accumulation of particularly high species diversity on Borneo, which is central within the island network. By contrast, the meta-population model predicts a higher diversity on the mainlands, which is less compatible with empirical data. Our analyses highlight that, by comparing models with contrasting assumptions, we can pinpoint the processes that are most compatible with extant biodiversity patterns.

Adapting the management of forest resources to climate change involves addressing several crucial aspects to provide a valid basis for decision making. These include the knowledge and belief of decision makers, the mapping of management options for the current as well as anticipated future bioclimatic and socioeconomic conditions, and the ways decisions are evaluated and made. We investigate the adaptive management process and develop a framework including these three aspects, thus providing a structured way to analyze the challenges and opportunities of managing forests in the face of climate change. We apply the framework for a range of case studies that differ in the way climate and its impacts are projected to change, the available management options, and how decision makers develop, update, and use their beliefs about climate change scenarios to select among adaptation options, each being optimal for a certain climate change scenario. We describe four stylized types of decision-making processes that differ in how they (1) take into account uncertainty and new information on the state and development of the climate and (2) evaluate alternative management decisions: the "no-change," the "reactive," the "trend-adaptive," and the "forward-looking adaptive" decision-making types. Accordingly, we evaluate the experiences with alternative management strategies and recent publications on using Bayesian optimization methods that account for different simulated learning schemes based on varying knowledge, belief, and information. Finally, our proposed framework for identifying adaptation strategies provides solutions for enhancing forest structure and diversity, biomass and timber production, and reducing climate change-induced damages. They are spatially heterogeneous, reflecting the diversity in growing conditions and socioeconomic settings within Europe.