Search

Aim: Ongoing climate warming has been widely reported to delay autumn phenology, which in turn impacts carbon, water, energy and nutrient balances at regional and global scales. However, the underlying mechanisms of autumn phenology responses to climate change have not been fully elucidated. The aims of this study were to determine whether brightening that was defined as the increase of surface solar radiation and warming during recent decades affect autumn phenology in opposite directions and explore the underlying mechanisms. Location: Central Europe. Time period: 1950–2016. Major taxa studied: Four dominant European tree species in central Europe: Aesculus hippocastanum, Betula pendula, Fagus sylvatica and Quercus robur. Methods: We investigated the temporal trends of leaf senescence, preseason temperature and radiation by separating the period of 1950–2016 into two sub-periods (1950–1982 and 1983–2016) and determined the relationship between temperature, radiation and leaf senescence using partial correlation analysis. Results: We found a significant warming and brightening trend after the 1980s in central Europe, yet this led to only slight delays in leaf senescence that cannot be explained by the well-known positive correlation between leaf senescence and autumn warming. Interestingly, we found opposite effects between warming (partial correlation coefficient, r =.37) and brightening (r = −.23) on leaf senescence. In addition, the temperature sensitivity of leaf senescence decreased with increasing radiation (−5.08 days/℃/108 J/m2). Main conclusions: The results suggested that brightening accelerated the leaf senescence dates, counteracting the warming-induced delays in leaf senescence, which may be attributed to photooxidative stress and/or sink limitation. This emphasizes the need to consider radiation to improve the performance of autumn phenology models.

The ocean is a lifeline for human existence, but current practices risk severely undermining ocean sustainability. Present and future social−ecological challenges necessitate the maintenance and development of knowledge and action by stimulating collaboration among scientists and between science, policy, and practice. Here we explore not only how such collaborations have developed in the Nordic countries and adjacent seas but also how knowledge from these regions contributes to an understanding of how to obtain a sustainable ocean. Our collective experience may be summarized in three points: 1) In the absence of long-term observations, decision-making is subject to high risk arising from natural variability; 2) in the absence of established scientific organizations, advice to stakeholders often relies on a few advisors, making them prone to biased perceptions; and 3) in the absence of trust between policy makers and the science community, attuning to a changing ocean will be subject to arbitrary decision-making with unforeseen and negative ramifications. Underpinning these observations, we show that collaboration across scientific disciplines and stakeholders and between nations is a necessary condition for appropriate actions.

Bacillus anthracis , the etiological agent of anthrax, is a well-established model organism. For B. anthracis and most other infectious diseases, knowledge regarding transmission and infection parameters in natural systems, in large part, comprises data gathered from closely controlled laboratory experiments. Fatal, natural anthrax infections transmit the bacterium through new host−pathogen contacts at carcass sites, which can occur years after death of the previous host. For the period between contact and death, all of our knowledge is based upon experimental data from domestic livestock and laboratory animals. Here we use a noninvasive method to explore the dynamics of anthrax infections, by evaluating the terminal diversity of B. anthracis in anthrax carcasses. We present an application of population genetics theory, specifically, coalescence modeling, to intrainfection populations of B. anthracis to derive estimates for the duration of the acute phase of the infection and effective population size converted to the number of colony-forming units establishing infection in wild plains zebra ( Equus quagga ). Founding populations are small, a few colony-forming units, and infections are rapid, lasting roughly between 1 d and 3 d in the wild. Our results closely reflect experimental data, showing that small founding populations progress acutely, killing the host within days. We believe this method is amendable to other bacterial diseases from wild, domestic, and human systems.

Variations in physical conditions caused by climate change are likely to have large influences on marine organisms, including phytoplankton. Here, we investigated associations between satellite-derived chlorophyll a data from the Barents Sea and 2 key abiotic factors: sea surface temperature and sea-ice concentration. Specifically, we investigated how climate variability, through the measured physical factors, associated with phytoplankton phenology between 1998 and 2014. Associations between sea surface temperature and phytoplankton bloom dynamics differed depending on the area. The spring phytoplankton bloom occurred earlier and had higher magnitude in warm compared to cold years in the northern part of the Barents Sea, but there was no significant association in the southern part. In seasonally ice-covered regions, the association between the timing of the sea-ice retreat and the phytoplankton peak was nonlinear: sea-ice retreat time before mid-May was not associated with bloom timing, whereas the phytoplankton bloom occurred before or immediately following the ice retreat when the ice retreated after mid-May. Although drivers that are relatively constant across years, such as insolation, probably influenced the spatial gradient in chlorophyll, a space-for-time substitution captured the predicted effects of sea-ice retreat on the timing and magnitude of the phytoplankton bloom quite well.

The Arctic climate was warmer than today at the last interglacial and the Holocene thermal optimum. To reveal the impact of past climate-warming events on the demographic history of an Arctic specialist, we examined both mitochondrial and nuclear genomic variation in the collared lemming ( Dicrostonyx torquatus , Pallas), a keystone species in tundra communities, across its entire distribution in northern Eurasia. The ancestral phylogenetic position of the West Beringian group and divergence time estimates support the hypothesis of continental range contraction to a single refugial area located in West Beringia during high-magnitude warming of the last interglacial, followed by westward recolonization of northern Eurasia in the last glacial period. The West Beringian group harbors the highest mitogenome diversity and its inferred demography indicates a constantly large effective population size over the Late Pleistocene to Holocene. This suggests that northward forest expansion during recent warming of the Holocene thermal optimum did not affect the gene pool of the collared lemming in West Beringia but reduced genomic diversity and effective population size in all other regions of the Eurasian Arctic. Demographic inference from genomic diversity was corroborated by species distribution modeling showing reduction in species distribution during past climate warming. These conclusions are supported by recent paleoecological evidence suggesting smaller temperature increases and moderate northward forest advances in the extreme northeast of Eurasia during the Late Pleistocene-to-Holocene warming events. This study emphasizes the importance of West Beringia as a potential refugium for cold-adapted Arctic species under ongoing climate warming.

The great gerbil (Rhombomys opimus) is a social rodent living in permanent, complex burrow systems distributed throughout Central Asia, where it serves as the main host of several important vector-borne infectious pathogens including the well-known plague bacterium (Yersinia pestis). Here, we present a continuous annotated genome assembly of the great gerbil, covering over 96% of the estimated 2.47-Gb genome. Taking advantage of the recent genome assemblies of the sand rat (Psammomys obesus) and the Mongolian gerbil (Meriones unguiculatus), comparative immunogenomic analyses reveal shared gene losses within TLR gene families (i.e., TLR8, TLR10, and the entire TLR11-subfamily) for Gerbillinae, accompanied with signs of diversifying selection of TLR7 and TLR9. Most notably, we find a great gerbil-specific duplication of the MHCII DRB locus. In silico analyses suggest that the duplicated gene provides high peptide binding affinity for Yersiniae epitopes as well as Leishmania and Leptospira epitopes, putatively leading to increased capability to withstand infections by these pathogens. Our study demonstrates the power of whole-genome sequencing combined with comparative genomic analyses to gain deeper insight into the immunogenomic landscape of the great gerbil and its close relatives.

Mass mortality events are ubiquitous in nature and can be caused by, for example, diseases, extreme weather and human perturbations such as contamination. Despite being prevalent and rising globally, how mass mortality in early life causes population-level effects such as reduced total population biomass, is not fully explored. In particular for fish, mass mortality affecting early life may be dampened by compensatory density-dependent processes. However, due to large variations in year-class strength, potentially caused by density-independent variability in survival, the impact at the population level may be high in certain years. We quantify population-level impacts at two levels of mass mortality (50% and 99% additional mortality) during early life across 40 fish species using age-structured population dynamics models. The findings from these species-specific models are further supported by an analysis of detailed stock-specific models for three of the species. We find that population impacts are highly variable between years and species. Short-lived species that exhibit a low degree of compensatory density dependence and high interannual variation in survival experience the strongest impacts at the population level. These quantitative and general relationships allow predicting the range of potential impacts of mass mortality events on species based on their life history. This is critical considering that the frequency and severity of mass mortality events are increasing worldwide.

Harvesting is often size‐selective, and in species with sexual size dimorphism, it may also be sex‐selective. A powerful approach to investigate potential consequences of size‐ and/or sex‐selective harvesting is to simulate it in a demographic population model. We developed a population‐based integral projection model for a size‐ and sex‐structured species, the commonly exploited pike (Esox lucius). The model allows reproductive success to be proportional to body size and potentially limited by both sexes. We ran all harvest simulations with both lower size limits and slot limits, and to quantify the effects of selective harvesting, we calculated sex ratios and the long‐term population growth rate (λ). In addition, we quantified to what degree purely size‐selective harvesting was sex‐selective, and determined when λ shifted from being female to male limited under size‐ and sex‐selective harvesting. We found that purely size‐selective harvest can be sex‐selective, and that it depends on the harvest limits and the size distributions of the sexes. For the size‐ and sex‐selective harvest simulations, λ increased with harvest intensity up to a threshold as females limited reproduction. Beyond this threshold, males became the limiting sex, and λ decreased as more males were harvested. The peak in λ, and the corresponding sex ratio in harvest, varied with both the selectivity and the intensity of the harvest simulation. Our model represents a useful extension of size‐structured population models as it includes both sexes, relaxes the assumption of female dominance, and accounts for size‐dependent fecundity. The consequences of selective harvesting presented here are especially relevant for size‐ and sex‐structured exploited species, such as commercial fisheries. Thus, our model provides a useful contribution toward the development of more sustainable harvesting regimes., Harvesting often targets animals of certain sizes, and for many species, it also targets a certain sex. We quantify the effects of size‐ and sex‐selective harvesting by simulating different scenarios in an exploited pike population. Our new two‐sex model could aid in sustainable management of harvested species.

Conservation efforts and management decisions on the living environment of our planet often rely on the results from statistical models. Yet, these models are imperfect and quantification of risk associated with the estimate of management-relevant quantities becomes crucial in providing robust advice. Here we demonstrate that estimates of risk themselves could be substantially biased but by combining data fitting with an extensive simulation–estimation procedure, one can back-calculate the correct values. We apply the method to 627 time series of population abundance across four taxa using the Gompertz state-space model as an example. We find that the risk of large bias in population status estimate increases with the species’ growth rate, population variability, weaker density dependence, and shorter time series, across taxa. We urge scientists dealing with conservation and management to adopt a similar approach to ensure a more accurate estimate of risk measures and contribute towards a precautionary approach to management., Risk estimates are important measures for the study and practice of conservation ecology. Here, the authors show that such estimates can be substantially biased, and propose an approach to improve accuracy.

Significance Using extensive data on dengue fever and mosquito density, we demonstrate that local weather conditions, through their impact on the variation of mosquito abundance, are a driver of dengue dynamics in China. We believe that this mechanism can be applied to explain dengue dynamics in other places as well. We furthermore conjecture that our integrative approach would be applicable to other vector-borne diseases, such as Zika, malaria, and chikungunya., Dengue is a climate-sensitive mosquito-borne disease with increasing geographic extent and human incidence. Although the climate–epidemic association and outbreak risks have been assessed using both statistical and mathematical models, local mosquito population dynamics have not been incorporated in a unified predictive framework. Here, we use mosquito surveillance data from 2005 to 2015 in China to integrate a generalized additive model of mosquito dynamics with a susceptible–infected–recovered (SIR) compartmental model of viral transmission to establish a predictive model linking climate and seasonal dengue risk. The findings illustrate that spatiotemporal dynamics of dengue are predictable from the local vector dynamics, which in turn, can be predicted by climate conditions. On the basis of the similar epidemiology and transmission cycles, we believe that this integrated approach and the finer mosquito surveillance data provide a framework that can be extended to predict outbreak risk of other mosquito-borne diseases as well as project dengue risk maps for future climate scenarios.

Plague has been known since ancient times as a re-emerging infectious disease, causing considerable socioeconomic burden in regional hotspots. To better understand the epidemiological cycle of the causative agent of the plague, its potential occurrence, and possible future dispersion, one must carefully consider the taxonomy, distribution, and ecological requirements of reservoir-species in relation either to natural or human-driven changes (e.g. climate change or urbanization). In recent years, the depth of knowledge on species taxonomy and species composition in different landscapes has undergone a dramatic expansion, driven by modern taxonomic methods such as synthetic surveys that take into consideration morphology, genetics, and the ecological setting of captured animals to establish their species identities. Here, we consider the recent taxonomic changes of the rodent species in known plague reservoirs and detail their distribution across the world, with a particular focus on those rodents considered to be keystone host species. A complete checklist of all known plague-infectable vertebrates living in plague foci is provided as a Supporting Information table.

Research into global change ecology is motivated by the need to understand the role of humans in changing biotic systems. Mechanistic understanding of ecological responses requires the separation of different climatic parameters and processes that often operate on diverse spatiotemporal scales. Yet most environmental studies do not distinguish the effects of internal climate variability from those caused by external, natural (e.g. volcanic, solar, orbital) or anthropogenic (e.g. greenhouse gases, ozone, aerosols, land-use) forcing factors. 2. We suggest extending the climatological concept of `Detection and Attribution¿ (DA) to unravel abiotic drivers of ecological dynamics in the Anthropocene. We therefore apply DA to quantify the relative roles of natural versus industrial temperature change on elevational shifts in the outbreak epicentres of the larch budmoth (LBM; Zeiraphera diniana or griseana Gn.); the classic example of a cyclic forest defoliating insect. 3. Our case study shows that anthropogenic warming shifts the epicentre of travelling LBM waves upward, which disrupts the intensity of population outbreaks that occurred regularly over the past millennium in the European Alps. Our findings demonstrate the ability of DA to detect ecological responses beyond internal system variability, to attribute them to specific external climate forcing factors and to identify climate-induced ecological tipping points. 4. In order to implement the climatological concept of `Detection and Attribution¿ successfully into modern global change ecology, future studies should combine high-resolution paleoenvironmental reconstructions and state-of-the-art climate model simulations to inform inference-based ecosystem models, U.B. received funding from the SustES Project (CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/ 16_019/0000797). J.F.G.-R. acknowledges the projects ILModelS_ CGL2014-59644-R and GReatModelS_RT1218-102305-B-C21. J.L. is thankful to the JPI-Climate/Belmont Forum collaborative Research Action ‘INTEGRATE’, and the Climate Science for Service Partnership China project (CSSP China).

Robust changes in climatic hazards, including droughts, heatwaves and dust storms, are evident in many parts of the world and they are expected to increase in magnitude and frequency in the future. At the same time, socio-ecological damage from climate-related disasters has increased worldwide, including the Eurasian steppes, notably Mongolian grasslands (MGs), which occur in arid and harsh cold climate and still support traditional nomadic livelihood and culture through the food supply, and agricultural and ecosystem services. In the 2000s, increasing climate disasters (droughts combined with anomalously harsh winters (dzuds in Mongolian), and dust storms) resulted in massive livestock deaths, causing socioeconomic stagnation. In this context, assessments of risk and vulnerability of MGs to climate change and grazing may support disaster risk management by helping to identify hazard risk hotspots, allowing herders in risky areas to be prepared for events, and to mitigate the future potential impacts. Here, we examine the risk and vulnerability of the MG ecosystem to droughts at the national-level during a 40-year (1976–2015) using simulations of a gridded process-based ecosystem model by contrasting the recent (1996–2015) and past (1976–1995) 20-years. In general, the model realistically simulates temporal and spatial variations of vegetation biomass and soil moisture that were captured by field and satellite observations during 2000–2015 over MGs. We apply a probabilistic risk analysis in which risk is the product of the probability of hazardous drought during June-August and ecosystem vulnerability. Results reveal that during 1976–2015, increases in droughts with rapid warming and slight drying occurred over MGs, particularly in the recent 20-year, accompanied by ever-increasing grazing intensity, which together resulted in declining trends in grassland productivity. During the recent 20-year, the risk of drought to productivity slightly increased over extended areas in MGs compared to the past 20-year. The increase in the risk to MGs predominantly caused by the climate change-induced increase in the probability of hazardous drought, and less by the vulnerability. Regionally, recent droughts modify the risk to grasslands particularly in northcentral and northeast Mongolia. Given the benefits of MGs for both ecosystem services and socio-economic consequences, recent increases in drought hazards and associated risk to MGs signal an urgent need to implement drought management policies that sustain MGs.

Continual evolution describes the unceasing evolution of at least one trait involving at least one organism. The Red Queen Hypothesis is a specific case in which continual evolution results from coevolution of at least two species. While microevolutionary studies have described examples in which evolution does not cease, understanding which general conditions lead to continual evolution or to stasis remains a major challenge. In many cases, it is unclear which experimental features or model assumptions are necessary for the observed continual evolution to emerge, and whether the described behavior is robust to variations in the given setup. Here, we aim to find the minimal set of conditions under which continual evolution occurs. To this end, we present a theoretical framework that does not assume any specific functional form and, therefore, can be applied to a wide variety of systems. Our framework is also general enough to make predictions about both monomorphic and polymorphic populations. We show that the combination of a fast positive and a slow negative feedback between environment, population, and evolving traits causes continual evolution to emerge even from the evolution of a single evolving trait, provided that the ecological timescale is sufficiently faster than the timescales of mutation and the negative feedback. Our approach and results thus contribute to a deeper understanding of the evolutionary dynamics resulting from biotic interactions.

African wolves (AWs) are sympatric with endangered Ethiopian wolves (EWs) in parts of their range. Scat analyses have suggested a dietary overlap between AWs and EWs, raising the potential for exploitative competition, and a possible conservation threat to EWs. However, in contrast to that of the well-studied EW, the foraging ecology of AWs remains poorly characterized. Accordingly, we studied the foraging ecology of radio-collared AWs ( n = 11 individuals) at two localities with varying levels of anthropogenic disturbance in the Ethiopian Highlands, the Guassa-Menz Community Conservation Area (GMCCA) and Borena-Saynt National Park (BSNP), accumulating 845 h of focal observation across 2952 feeding events. We also monitored rodent abundance and rodent trapping activity by local farmers who experience conflict with AWs. The AW diet consisted largely of rodents (22.0%), insects (24.8%), and goats and sheep (24.3%). Of the total rodents captured by farmers using local traps during peak barley production (July to November) in GMCCA, averaging 24.7 ± 8.5 rodents/hectare/day, 81% ( N = 3009) were scavenged by AWs. Further, of all the rodents consumed by AWs, most (74%) were carcasses. These results reveal complex interactions between AWs and local farmers, and highlight the scavenging niche occupied by AWs in anthropogenically altered landscapes in contrast to the active hunting exhibited by EWs in more intact habitats. While AWs cause economic damage to local farmers through livestock predation, they appear to play an important role in scavenging pest rodents among farmlands, a pattern of behaviour which likely mitigates direct and indirect competition with EWs. We suggest two routes to promote the coexistence of AWs and EWs in the Ethiopian highlands: local education efforts highlighting the complex role AWs play in highland ecosystems to reduce their persecution, and enforced protection of intact habitats to preserve habitat preferred by EWs.

Background The availability of preferred habitats determines the spatial and temporal distribution of herbivores in savanna ecosystems. Understanding habitat preference of a targeted wildlife species is crucial for developing effective conservation strategies. Habitat preference of large grazers in connection to grass height and post-fire effect has been debated for the last century. Here, we examined the effects of season, grass height and burning on the habitat preference on Swayne’s hartebeest (Alcelaphus buselaphus swaynei) in Maze National Park. Data for seasonal habitat selection were collected using both direct observation along established transect lines and pellet counting using permanently established plots. Every month, we measured grass height commonly preferred by Swayne’s hartebeest in grassland habitat. Starting from the first week of burning, we recorded the abundance of Swayne’s hartebeest in both burned and unburned grassland patches. Results From detected pellets, 94.3% were recorded in the grassland habitat indicating that other habitat types are less used despite their extensive cover > 50% of the Park. During wet and early dry seasons, Swayne’s hartebeest exclusively preferred grassland habitat. We found that 85.2% (n = 1079) and 85.3% (n = 593) of individuals observed in areas with a grass height below 30 cm during wet and early-dry seasons, respectively; while 70.9% (n = 2288) preferred grass height below 30 cm during the dry season. The density of Swayne’s hartebeest in burned grassland area was higher than unburned grassland areas up to 150 days since burning. However, in unburned grassland areas, the density was initially low but showed increasing trend for consecutive days, reaching similar density with burned areas after 150 days since burning. Conclusion Swayne’s hartebeest exclusively preferred grassland habitat, particularly during wet and early-dry seasons, shortest available grass height in all seasons and were attracted to burned grassland areas. Our results suggested that fire played an important role in maintaining habitat quality in grassland, and that management should continue using controlled burning as a tool for the conservation of Swayne’s hartebeest. However, we remain cautious of our findings given the paucity of information regarding other confounding factors and the absence of long-term data on fire disturbance.

Reliable data on the distribution and threats facing primate species are crucial to identifying priority sites for conservation and designing effective management plans. Boutourlini’s blue monkey (Cercopithecus mitis boutourlinii) is a little-known arboreal primate endemic to the forests of western Ethiopia. This subspecies is categorized as Vulnerable on the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List and the distribution of extant populations is largely unknown. To increase our knowledge of the spatial distribution and conservation status of Boutourlini’s blue monkey, we carried out intensive reconnaissance surveys from January 2010 to May 2011 across approximately 40% of its potential range and conducted interviews with local people at each of the survey locations. We carried out geospatial analyses and mapped the distribution of Boutourlini’s blue monkey localities with respect to elevation, protected area status, and changes in forest cover over time using ArcGIS 10.4.0. Through our surveys, we discovered 30 previously unknown Boutourlini’s blue monkey populations in three administrative regions of western Ethiopia (Amhara, Oromia, and Southern Nations, Nationalities and People’s Regions). A total of 34 different groups were sighted and counted at the survey sites, averaging 14.7 members (range 8–23) per group. There are now 32 Boutourlini’s blue monkey populations of recently confirmed occurrence at altitudes ranging from 1039 to 2780 m asl, seven in forests of greater than 50 km2. Crop feeding by Boutourlini’s blue monkeys was reported by people at seven sites and confirmed through direct observation at three of these sites. None of the known extant populations of Boutourlini’s blue monkeys occur within a strictly protected area (e.g., national park) where exploitative human activities are outlawed. A complete reassessment of the distribution and conservation status of Boutourlini’s blue monkey will require further surveys across the remaining approximately 60% of its potential range.

Primates inhabiting human‐modified landscapes often exploit matrix habitat to supplement their diet with cultivated foods, at times resulting in economic losses and conflict with local people. Understanding human‐nonhuman primate interactions and the attitudes and perceptions of local people towards crop feeding species are crucial to designing effective species‐based management plans. Over a 12‐month period, we used scan sampling to study the consumption of cultivated foods and matrix use patterns by two habituated groups of Bale monkeys (Chlorocebus djamdjamensis ), Ethiopian‐endemic bamboo specialists, in two forest fragments (Kokosa and Afursa) set amidst human settlements and farmland in the southern Ethiopian Highlands. Further, we conducted interviews with local people to document their attitudes and perceptions towards Bale monkeys at the two sites. We found that Bale monkeys at Kokosa, a more degraded habitat by most measures, consumed significantly more cultivated foods than their counterparts at Afursa. Moreover, Bale monkeys at Kokosa spent significantly more time in the matrix than in the forest habitat, while monkeys at Afursa spent significantly less time in the matrix than in the forest habitat. Not surprisingly, local people displayed a more negative attitude towards monkeys inhabiting Kokosa than those inhabiting Afursa. The differences in Bale monkey cultivated food consumption and matrix use patterns—as well as in local people's attitudes and perceptions towards Bale monkeys—between Kokosa and Afursa are probably associated with differences in habitat structure, degree of habitat alteration, and land‐use practices between the sites. We conclude that to ensure long‐term coexistence between Bale monkeys and local people in human‐modified landscapes, it is vital to incorporate nearby matrix habitats into management plans and to work closely with local communities to develop effective nonlethal crop protection strategies, thereby reducing the likelihood of negative interactions between Bale monkeys and humans.

Climate change has profound ecological effects, yet our understanding of how trophic interactions among species are affected by climate change is still patchy. The sympatric Atlantic haddock and cod are co-occurring across the North Atlantic. They compete for food at younger stages and thereafter the former is preyed by the latter. Climate change might affect the interaction and coexistence of these two species. Particularly, the increase in sea temperature (ST) has been shown to affect distribution, population growth and trophic interactions in marine systems. We used 33-year long time series of haddock and cod abundances estimates from two data sources (acoustic and trawl survey) to analyse the dynamic effect of climate on the coexistence of these two sympatric species in the Arcto-Boreal Barents Sea. Using a Bayesian state-space threshold model, we demonstrated that long-term climate variation, as expressed by changes of ST, affected species demography through different influences on density-independent processes. The interaction between cod and haddock has shifted in the last two decades due to an increase in ST, altering the equilibrium abundances and the dynamics of the system. During warm years (ST over ca. 4°C), the increase in the cod abundance negatively affected haddock abundance while it did not during cold years. This change in interactions therefore changed the equilibrium population size with a higher population size during warm years. Our analyses show that long-term climate change in the Arcto-Boreal system can generate differences in the equilibrium conditions of species assemblages.

Significance By linking seasonality of climate and changing human behavior, we demonstrate that collaboration on global efforts for prompt and intensive intervention is fundamental to coping with future pandemic waves of COVID-19. We propose that this collaboration can be started in locations with typically high population density and international travel, followed by other high-risk locations. We believe this tiered intervention strategy can greatly integrate global efforts and is effective and practical to improve the global emergency response to COVID-19 and many other infectious diseases., Emerging evidence suggests a resurgence of COVID-19 in the coming years. It is thus critical to optimize emergency response planning from a broad, integrated perspective. We developed a mathematical model incorporating climate-driven variation in community transmissions and movement-modulated spatial diffusions of COVID-19 into various intervention scenarios. We find that an intensive 8-wk intervention targeting the reduction of local transmissibility and international travel is efficient and effective. Practically, we suggest a tiered implementation of this strategy where interventions are first implemented at locations in what we call the Global Intervention Hub, followed by timely interventions in secondary high-risk locations. We argue that thinking globally, categorizing locations in a hub-and-spoke intervention network, and acting locally, applying interventions at high-risk areas, is a functional strategy to avert the tremendous burden that would otherwise be placed on public health and society.

Significance The spread and evolution of plague have been under debate in the past few years. However, very little is known of the dynamics of the plague pathogen, Yersinia pestis, during the last phase of the Second Plague Pandemic in Europe (18th and 19th century). We present nine ancient Y. pestis genomes from the Second Plague Pandemic. CHE1 is the first Second Plague Pandemic genome from the Caucasus region, an area that houses plague wildlife reservoirs to this day, making it a key strain to help elucidate the origin of Medieval and Early Modern plague. Our study documents the importance of a noneurocentric approach to historical plague dynamics and proposes an origin of plague introductions outside of Europe., Plague continued to afflict Europe for more than five centuries after the Black Death. Yet, by the 17th century, the dynamics of plague had changed, leading to its slow decline in Western Europe over the subsequent 200 y, a period for which only one genome was previously available. Using a multidisciplinary approach, combining genomic and historical data, we assembled Y. pestis genomes from nine individuals covering four Eurasian sites and placed them into an historical context within the established phylogeny. CHE1 (Chechnya, Russia, 18th century) is now the latest Second Plague Pandemic genome and the first non-European sample in the post-Black Death lineage. Its placement in the phylogeny and our synthesis point toward the existence of an extra-European reservoir feeding plague into Western Europe in multiple waves. By considering socioeconomic, ecological, and climatic factors we highlight the importance of a noneurocentric approach for the discussion on Second Plague Pandemic dynamics in Europe.

The survival of fish eggs and larvae, and therefore recruitment success, can be critically affected by transport in ocean currents. Combining a model of early‐life stage dispersal with statistical stock–recruitment models, we investigated the role of larval transport for recruitment variability across spatial scales for the population complex of North Sea cod (Gadus morhua). By using a coupled physical–biological model, we estimated the egg and larval transport over a 44‐year period. The oceanographic component of the model, capable of capturing the interannual variability of temperature and ocean current patterns, was coupled to the biological component, an individual‐based model (IBM) that simulated the cod eggs and larvae development and mortality. This study proposes a novel method to account for larval transport and success in stock–recruitment models: weighting the spawning stock biomass by retention rate and, in the case of multiple populations, their connectivity. Our method provides an estimate of the stock biomass contributing to recruitment and the effect of larval transport on recruitment variability. Our results indicate an effect, albeit small, in some populations at the local level. Including transport anomaly as an environmental covariate in traditional stock–recruitment models in turn captures recruitment variability at larger scales. Our study aims to quantify the role of larval transport for recruitment across spatial scales, and disentangle the roles of temperature and larval transport on effective connectivity between populations, thus informing about the potential impacts of climate change on the cod population structure in the North Sea.

In changing environments, phenotypic traits are shaped by numerous agents of selection. The optimal phenotypic value maximizing the fitness of an individual thus varies through time and space with various environmental covariates. Selection may differ between different life-cycle stages and act on correlated traits inducing changes in the distribution of several traits simultaneously. Despite increasing interests in environmental sensitivity of phenotypic selection, estimating varying selective optima on various traits throughout the life cycle, while considering (a)biotic factors as potential selective agents has remained challenging. Here, we provide a statistical model to measure varying selective optima from longitudinal data. We apply our approach to analyze environmental sensitivity of phenotypic selection on egg-laying date and clutch size throughout the life cycle of a white-throated dipper population. We show the presence of a joint optimal phenotype that varies over the 35-year period, being dependent on altitude and temperature. We also find that optimal laying date is density-dependent, with high population density favoring earlier laying dates. By providing a flexible approach, widely applicable to free-ranging populations for which long-term data on individual phenotypes, fitness, and environmental factors are available, our study improves the understanding of phenotypic selection in varying environments.

Environmentally transmitted diseases are comparatively poorly understood and managed, and their ecology is particularly understudied. Here we identify challenges of studying environmental transmission and persistence with a six-sided interdisciplinary review of the biology of anthrax (Bacillus anthracis). Anthrax is a zoonotic disease capable of maintaining infectious spore banks in soil for decades (or even potentially centuries), and the mechanisms of its environmental persistence have been the topic of significant research and controversy. Where anthrax is endemic, it plays an important ecological role, shaping the dynamics of entire herbivore communities. The complex eco-epidemiology of anthrax, and the mysterious biology of Bacillus anthracis during its environmental stage, have necessitated an interdisciplinary approach to pathogen research. Here, we illustrate different disciplinary perspectives through key advances made by researchers working in Etosha National Park, a long-term ecological research site in Namibia that has exemplified the complexities of the enzootic process of anthrax over decades of surveillance. In Etosha, the role of scavengers and alternative routes (waterborne transmission and flies) has proved unimportant relative to the long-term persistence of anthrax spores in soil and their infection of herbivore hosts. Carcass deposition facilitates green-ups of vegetation to attract herbivores, potentially facilitated by the role of anthrax spores in the rhizosphere. The underlying seasonal pattern of vegetation, and herbivores' immune and behavioural responses to anthrax risk, interact to produce regular 'anthrax seasons' that appear to be a stable feature of the Etosha ecosystem. Through the lens of microbiologists, geneticists, immunologists, ecologists, epidemiologists, and clinicians, we discuss how anthrax dynamics are shaped at the smallest scale by population genetics and interactions within the bacterial communities up to the broadest scales of ecosystem structure. We illustrate the benefits and challenges of this interdisciplinary approach to disease ecology, and suggest ways anthrax might offer insights into the biology of other important pathogens. Bacillus anthracis, and the more recently emerged Bacillus cereus biovar anthracis, share key features with other environmentally transmitted pathogens, including several zoonoses and panzootics of special interest for global health and conservation efforts. Understanding the dynamics of anthrax, and developing interdisciplinary research programs that explore environmental persistence, is a critical step forward for understanding these emerging threats.

The Red Queen Hypothesis proposes that perpetual co-evolution among organisms can result from purely biotic drivers. After more than four decades, there is no satisfactory understanding as to which mechanisms trigger Red Queen dynamics or their implications for ecosystem features such as biodiversity. One reason for such a knowledge gap is that typical models are complicated theories where limit cycles represent an idealized Red Queen, and therefore cannot be used to devise experimental setups. Here, we bridge this gap by introducing a simple model for microbial systems able to show Red Queen dynamics. We explore diverse biotic sources that can drive the emergence of the Red Queen and that have the potential to be found in nature or to be replicated in the laboratory. Our model enables an analytical understanding of how Red Queen dynamics emerge in our setup, and the translation of model terms and phenomenology into general underlying mechanisms. We observe, for example, that in our system the Red Queen offers opportunities for the increase of biodiversity by facilitating challenging conditions for intraspecific dominance, whereas stasis tends to homogenize the system. Our results can be used to design and engineer experimental microbial systems showing Red Queen dynamics.

1. Identifying the spatial scale of population structuring is critical for the conservation of natural populations and for drawing accurate ecological inferences. However, population studies often use spatially aggregated data to draw inferences about population trends and drivers, potentially masking ecologically relevant population sub‐structure and dynamics. 2. The goals of this study were to investigate how population dynamics models with and without spatial structure affect inferences on population trends and the identification of intrinsic drivers of population dynamics (e.g. density dependence). 3. Specifically, we developed dynamic, age‐structured, state‐space models to test different hypotheses regarding the spatial structure of a population complex of coastal Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua). Data were from a 93‐year survey of juvenile (age 0 and 1) cod sampled along >200 km of the Norwegian Skagerrak coast. We compared two models: one which assumes all sampled cod belong to one larger population, and a second which assumes that each fjord contains a unique population with locally determined dynamics. Using the best supported model, we then reconstructed the historical spatial and temporal dynamics of Skagerrak coastal cod. 4. Cross‐validation showed that the spatially structured model with local dynamics had better predictive ability. Furthermore, posterior predictive checks showed that a model which assumes one homogeneous population failed to capture the spatial correlation pattern present in the survey data. The spatially structured model indicated that population trends differed markedly among fjords, as did estimates of population parameters including density‐dependent survival. Recent biomass was estimated to be at a near‐record low all along the coast, but the finer scale model indicated that the decline occurred at different times in different regions. Warm temperatures were associated with poor recruitment, but local changes in habitat and fishing pressure may have played a role in driving local dynamics. 5. More generally, we demonstrated how state‐space models can be used to test evidence for population spatial structure based on survey time‐series data. Our study shows the importance of considering spatially structured dynamics, as the inferences from such an approach can lead to a different ecological understanding of the drivers of population declines, and fundamentally different management actions to restore populations.

Background The African wolf, for which we herein recognise Canis lupaster Hemprich and Ehrenberg, 1832 (Symbolae Physicae quae ex Itinere Africam Borealem er Asoam Occidentalem Decas Secunda. Berlin, 1833) as the valid species name (we consider the older name Canis anthus Cuvier, 1820 [Le Chacal de Sénégal, Femelle. In: Geoffroy St.-Hilaire E, Cuvier F, editors. Histoire Naturelle des Mammifères Paris, A. Belin, 1820] a nomen dubium), is a medium-sized canid with wolf-like characters. Because of phenotypic similarity, specimens of African wolf have long been assigned to golden jackal (Canis aureus Linnaeus, 1758 [Systema Naturae per Regna Tria Naturae, Secundum Classes, Ordines, Genera, Species, cum Characteribus, Differentiis, Synonymis, Locis. Tomus I. Editio decima, reformata, 1758]). Results Here we provide, through rigorous morphological analysis, a species description for this taxonomically overlooked species. Through molecular sequencing we assess its distribution in Africa, which remains uncertain due to confusion regarding possible co-occurrence with the Eurasian golden jackal. Canis lupaster differs from all other Canis spp. including the golden jackal in its cranial morphology, while phylogenetically it shows close affinity to the Holarctic grey wolf (Canis lupus Linnaeus, 1758 [Systema Naturae per Regna Tria Naturae, Secundum Classes, Ordines, Genera, Species, cum Characteribus, Differentiis, Synonymis, Locis. Tomus I. Editio decima, reformata, 1758]). All sequences generated during this study clustered with African wolf specimens, consistent with previous data for the species. Conclusions We suggest that the estimated current geographic range of golden jackal in Africa represents the African wolf range. Further research is needed in eastern Egypt, where a hybrid zone between Eurasian golden jackal and African wolf may exist. Our results highlight the need for improved studies of geographic range and population surveys for the taxon, which is classified as ‘least concern’ by the IUCN due to its erroneous identification as golden jackal. As a species exclusively distributed in Africa, investigations of the biology and threats to African wolf are needed.

Following general life history theory, immediate reproductive investment (egg mass × fecundity/body mass) in oviparous teleosts is a consequence of both present and past environmental influences. This clarification questions the frequent use of season-independent (general) fecundity formulas in marine fish recruitment studies based on body metrics only. Here we test the underlying assumption of no lag effect on gametogenesis in the planktivorous, determinate-fecundity Atlantic herring (Clupea harengus) displaying large plasticity in egg mass and fecundity, examining Norwegian summer–autumn spawning herring (NASH), North Sea autumn-spawning herring (NSAH), and Norwegian spring-spawning herring (NSSH). No prior reproductive information existed for NASH. Compared with the 1960s, recent reproductive investment had dropped markedly, especially for NSAH, likely reflecting long-term changes in zooplankton biography and productivity. As egg mass was characteristically small for autumn spawners, although large for spring spawners (cf. different larval feeding conditions), fecundity was the most dynamic factor within reproductive investment. For the data-rich NSSH, we showed evidence that transient, major declines in zooplankton abundance resulted in low fecundity over several subsequent seasons, even if Fulton’s condition factor (K) turned high. Temporal trends in Kslope (K on total length) were, however, informative. These results clarify that fecundity is defined by (i) dynamics of primary (standing stock) oocytes and (ii) down-regulation of secondary oocytes, both processes intimately linked to environmental conditions but operating at different timescales. Thus, general fecundity formulas typically understate interannual variability in actual fecundity. We therefore argue for the use of segmented fecundity formulas linked to dedicated monitoring programs.

Agencies responsible for recovering populations of iconic mammals may exaggerate population trends without adequate scientific evidence. Recently, such populations were termed as “political populations” in the conservation literature. We surmise such cases are manifested when agencies are pressured to estimate population parameters at large spatial scales for elusive species. For example, India's tiger conservation agencies depend on an extrapolation method using index‐calibration models for estimating population size. A recent study demonstrated mathematically the unreliability of this approach in practical situations. However, it continues to be applied by official agencies in Asia and promoted further by global organizations working on tiger conservation. In this article, we aim to: (a) discuss the ecological oddities in the results of India's national tiger surveys, (b) contrast these survey approaches to known statistical approaches for large scale wildlife abundance estimation, (c) demystify the mathematics underlying the problems with the survey methodology, and (d) substantiate these arguments with results from India's national tiger survey of 2014. Our analyses show that the predictions of tiger abundance reported by the 2014 survey, and consequently on tiger population trends, are misleading because of the presence of high sampling‐based overdispersion and parameter covariance due to unexplained heterogeneity in detection probabilities. We plead for designing monitoring programs to answer clearly defined scientific or management questions rather than attempt to meet extraneous social or funding related expectations.

Plague is a communicable rodent-borne disease caused by Yersinia pestis, a Gram-negative bacillus member of the Enterobacteriaceae\ud family. As a zoonosis, plague is primarily a wildlife disease that occasionally spills over to the human population, resulting in seasonal surges in human cases and localised outbreaks. The predominant clinical form among humans is bubonic plague, which,\ud if untreated, has a lethality of 60%–90% but is readily treatable with antibiotics, reducing the death rate to around 5% if administered shortly after the infection. One to two per cent of all bubonic cases develop into secondary pneumonic plague, which in turn may be transmitted from person to person through respiratory droplets, producing primary pneumonic plague in close contacts.\ud Without antibiotic treatment, pneumonic plague is nearly 100% fatal, but early antibiotic treatment substantially improves survival. Today, Y. pestis is present in at least 26 countries, with more than 30 different flea vectors and over 200 mammal host species. Although human plague cases continue to be reported from Asia and the Americas, most cases currently occur in remote, rural areas\ud of sub-Saharan Africa, mostly in Democratic Republic of Congo and Madagascar (around300–500 per year). However, large-scale\ud transmission may also occur. During the 14th century, the Black Death, caused by Y. pestis, is estimated to have killed 30%–40% of the European population. It is important to emphasise that human\ud plague is mostly a poverty-related disease. Therefore, given that population density and the absolute number of people living in extreme poverty are both increasing in sub-Saharan Africa, there is no likelihood of plague being eliminated as a public health threat in the foreseeable future. However, the WHO does not consider plague to be either a neglected tropical disease or a ‘priority pathogen’ that poses a public health risk because of its epidemic potential. In September 2017, an unprecedented urban outbreak of pneumonic plague was declared in Madagascar, striking primarily its capital Antananarivo and the major seaport of Toamasina. This episode once again brought international attention to plague, reminding\ud us of the capacity for human plague to spread in urban settings and cause substantial societal and economic disruption. This should\ud raise alarm bells that a research agenda is needed.

Introduction The availability of preferred habitats determine the spatial and temporal distribution of herbivores in savanna ecosystems and is crucial for developing conservation strategies of targeted wildlife species. Habitat preference of large grazers in connection to grass height and post-fire effect has been debated for the last century. Here, we examined Swayne’s hartebeest’s (Alcelaphus buselaphus swaynei) seasonal habitat selection, grass height preferences and post-fire effect on their habitat preferences in Maze National Park. Data for seasonal habitat selection were collected using both visual observation along established transect routes and pellet counting using permanently established plots. Every month, we measured fresh bite grass height that was grazed by Swayne’s hartebeest in grassland habitat. Starting from the first week of burning, we recorded the abundance of Swayne’s hartebeest in both burned and unburned grassland areas. Results From detected pellets, 94.3% were recorded in the grassland habitat indicating that other habitat types are less used despite their extensive cover > 50% of the Park. During wet and early dry seasons, Swayne’s hartebeest exclusively preferred grassland habitat. We found that 85.2% (n=1079) and 85.3% (n=593) of individuals observed in areas with a grass height below 30 cm during wet and early dry seasons, respectively; while 70.9% (n=2,288) preferred grass height below 30 cm during the dry season. The density of Swayne’s hartebeest in burned grassland area was higher than unburned grassland areas upto 150 days since burning. However, in unburned grassland areas, the density was initially low but showed increasing trend for consecutive days, reaching similar abundance with burned areas after 150 days since burning. Conclusion Swayne’s hartebeests exclusively preferred grassland habitat, particularly during wet and early dry seasons, shortest available grass height in all seasons and were attracted to burned grassland areas. Our results suggested that fire played an important role in maintaining habitat quality in grassland, and that management should continue using controlled burning as a tool for the conservation of Swayne’s hartebeest. However, we remain cautious of our findings given the paucity of information regarding other confounding factors and the absence of long-term data on fire disturbance.

With 60% of all primate species now threatened with extinction and many species only persisting in small populations in forest fragments, conservation action is urgently needed. But what type of action? Here we argue that restoration of primate habitat will be an essential component of strategies aimed at conserving primates and preventing the extinctions that may occur before the end of the century and propose that primates can act as flagship species for restoration efforts. To do this we gathered a team of academics from around the world with experience in restoration so that we could provide examples of why primate restoration ecology is needed, outline how primates can act as flagship species for restoration efforts of tropical forest, review what little is known about how primate populations respond to restoration efforts, and make specific recommendations of the next steps needed to make restoration of primate populations successful. We set four priorities: (1) academics must effectively communicate both the value of primates and the need for restoration; (2) more research is needed on how primates contribute to forest restoration; (3) more effort must be put into Masters and PhD level training for tropical country nationals; and finally (4) more emphasis is needed to monitor the responses of regenerating forest and primate populations where restoration efforts are initiated. We are optimistic that populations of many threatened species can recover, and extinctions can be prevented, but only if concerted large-scale efforts are made soon and if these efforts include primate habitat restoration.

Plague remains a threat to public health and is considered as a re-emerging infectious disease today. Rodents play an important role as major hosts in plague persistence and driving plague outbreaks in natural foci; however, few studies have tested the association between host diversity in ecosystems and human plague risk. Here we use zero-inflated generalized additive models to examine the association of species richness with human plague presence (where plague outbreaks could occur) and intensity (the average number of annual human cases when they occurred) in China during the Third Pandemic. We also account for transportation network density, annual precipitation levels and human population size. We found rodent species richness, particularly of rodent plague hosts, is positively associated with the presence of human plague. Further investigation shows that species richness of both wild and commensal rodent plague hosts are positively correlated with the presence, but only the latter correlated with the intensity. Our results indicated a positive relationship between rodent diversity and human plague, which may provide suggestions for the plague surveillance system.

Plague has a long history on the European continent, with evidence of the disease dating back to the Stone Age. Plague epidemics in Europe during the First and Second Pandemics, including the Black Death, are infamous for their widespread mortality and lasting social and economic impact. Yet, Europe still experienced plague outbreaks during the Third Pandemic, which began in China and spread globally at the end of the nineteenth century. The digitization of international records of notifiable diseases, including plague, has enabled us to retrace the introductions of the disease to Europe from the earliest reported cases in 1899, to its disappearance in the 1940s. Using supplemental literature, we summarize the potential sources of plague in Europe and the transmission of the disease, including the role of rats. Finally, we discuss the international efforts aimed at prevention and intervention measures, namely improved hygiene and sanitation, that ultimately led to the disappearance of plague in Europe.

Hantaviruses can cause hantavirus pulmonary syndrome (HPS) in the Americas and hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) in Eurasia. In recent decades, repeated outbreaks of hantavirus disease have led to public concern and have created a global public health burden. Hantavirus spillover from natural hosts into human populations could be considered an ecological process, in which environmental forces, behavioral determinants of exposure, and dynamics at the human–animal interface affect human susceptibility and the epidemiology of the disease. In this review, we summarize the progress made in understanding hantavirus epidemiology and rodent reservoir population biology. We mainly focus on three species of rodent hosts with longitudinal studies of sufficient scale: the striped field mouse (Apodemus agrarius, the main reservoir host for Hantaan virus [HTNV], which causes HFRS) in Asia, the deer mouse (Peromyscus maniculatus, the main reservoir host for Sin Nombre virus [SNV], which causes HPS) in North America, and the bank vole (Myodes glareolus, the main reservoir host for Puumala virus [PUUV], which causes HFRS) in Europe. Moreover, we discuss the influence of ecological factors on human hantavirus disease outbreaks and provide an overview of research perspectives.

Understanding the biological processes involved in genetic differentiation and divergence between populations within species is a pivotal aim in evolutionary biology. One particular phenomenon that requires clarification is the maintenance of genetic barriers despite the high potential for gene flow in the marine environment. Such patterns have been attributed to limited dispersal or local adaptation, and to a lesser extent to the demographic history of the species. The corkwing wrasse (Symphodus melops) is an example of a marine fish species where regions of particular strong divergence are observed. One such genetic break occurred at a surprisingly small spatial scale (FST ~0.1), over a short coastline (

Recent climate change has led to advanced spring phenology in many temperate regions. The phenological response to variation in the local environment, such as the habitat characteristics of the territories birds occupy, is less clear. The aim of this study is to understand how ecological conditions affect breeding time, and its consequences for reproduction, in a white-throated dipper Cinclus cinclus population in a river system in Norway during 34 years (1978–2011). Hatching date advanced almost nine days, indicating a response to higher temperatures and the advanced phenology in the area. Earlier breeding was found in warm springs and at lower altitudes. High population density facilitated earlier breeding close to the coast. Furthermore, when population density was low, breeding was early at territories that were rarely occupied, while in years with high density, breeding was early at territories that were frequently occupied. Also, when population density was low, earlier breeding occurred at territories that on average produced more offspring than other territories, while there was no difference in breeding time in high population years. Selection for early breeding was dependent on spring temperatures and high spring temperatures contributed to higher breeding success during the study period. We found that breeding phenology may have strong effects on fitness in the white-throated dipper, and thus that breeding time is an important ecological factor in a species that feeds mainly on aquatic rather than terrestrial prey.

Source at https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.5246. Translocation of organisms within or outside its native range carries the risk of modifying the community of the recipient ecosystems and induces gene flow between locally adapted populations or closely related species. In this study, we evaluated the genetic consequences of large‐scale translocation of cleaner wrasses that has become a common practice within the salmon aquaculture industry in northern Europe to combat sea lice infestation. A major concern with this practice is the potential for hybridization of escaped organisms with the local, recipient wrasse population, and thus potentially introduce exogenous alleles and breaking down coadapted gene complexes in local populations. We investigated the potential threat for such genetic introgressions in a large seminatural mesocosm basin. The experimental setting represented a simulated translocation of corkwing wrasse (Symphodus melops) that occurs on a large scale in the Norwegian salmon industry. Parentage assignment analysis of mesocosm's offspring revealed 30% (195 out of 651 offspring) interbreeding between the two populations, despite their being genetically (FST = 0.094, p < 0.05) and phenotypically differentiated. Moreover, our results suggest that reproductive fitness of the translocated western population doubled that of the local southern population. Our results confirm that human translocations may overcome the impediments imposed by natural habitat discontinuities and urge for immediate action to manage the genetic resources of these small benthic wrasses.

Significance Plague is a devastating infectious disease that has caused three pandemics during the last millennia. Today, plague still causes sporadic cases every year and even some outbreaks. In this paper, we analyze how factors associated with climate change and globalization affect the spread of plague worldwide. Such information is important with respect to global disease prevention and control. For this purpose, we first constructed a global plague database of the Third Pandemic, and then analyzed the association of spatiotemporal environmental factors with spreading velocity. Our results provide insight into the global transmission and suggest strategies for preventing plague transmission under accelerated global change., Quantitative knowledge about which natural and anthropogenic factors influence the global spread of plague remains sparse. We estimated the worldwide spreading velocity of plague during the Third Pandemic, using more than 200 years of extensive human plague case records and genomic data, and analyzed the association of spatiotemporal environmental factors with spreading velocity. Here, we show that two lineages, 2.MED and 1.ORI3, spread significantly faster than others, possibly reflecting differences among strains in transmission mechanisms and virulence. Plague spread fastest in regions with low population density and high proportion of pasture- or forestland, findings that should be taken into account for effective plague monitoring and control. Temperature exhibited a nonlinear, U-shaped association with spread speed, with a minimum around 20 °C, while precipitation showed a positive association. Our results suggest that global warming may accelerate plague spread in warm, tropical regions and that the projected increased precipitation in the Northern Hemisphere may increase plague spread in relevant regions.

While many in-laboratory ecotoxicological studies have shown the adverse impact of pollutants to the fitness of an individual, direct evidence from the field on the population dynamics of wildlife animals has been lacking. Here, we provide empirical support for a negative effect of pollution on Atlantic cod ( Gadus morhua ) population dynamics in coastal waters of Norway by combining unique time series of juvenile cod abundance, body size, environmental concentration of toxic contaminants and a spatially structured population dynamics model. The study shows that mercury concentration might have decreased the reproductive potential of cod in the region despite the general decline in the environmental concentration of mercury, cadmium and hexachlorobenzene since the implementation of national environmental laws. However, some cod populations appeared to be more resistant to mercury pollution than others, and the strength and shape of mercury effect on cod reproductive potential was fjord-specific. Additionally, cod growth rate changed at scales smaller than fjords with a gradient related to the exposure to the open ocean and offshore cod. These spatial differences in life-history traits emphasize the importance of local adaptation in shaping the dynamics of local wildlife populations. Finally, this study highlights the possibility to mitigate pollution effects on natural populations by reducing the overall pollution level, but also reveals that pollution reduction alone is not enough to rebuild local cod populations. Cod population recovery probably requires complementary efforts on fishing regulation and habitat restoration.

Significance Human impacts and climatic changes are widely considered to be responsible for rapid species extinction. However, determining their effects is challenging owing to the lack of long-term spatial–temporal data. In this study, we quantified the distinctive associations of anthropogenic and climatic stressors with the local extinction of 11 medium- or large-sized mammals using historical records over the past 3 centuries. We found that the increased local extinction of mammals was associated with intensified human disturbance (particularly for large-sized mammals) and with extreme temperature change (both cooling and warming). Our results provide insight into biodiversity conservation during the Anthropocene., Accelerated anthropogenic impacts and climatic changes are widely considered to be responsible for unprecedented species extinction. However, determining their effects on extinction is challenging owing to the lack of long-term data with high spatial and temporal resolution. In this study, using historical occurrence records of 11 medium- to large-sized mammal species or groups of species in China from 905 BC to AD 2006, we quantified the distinctive associations of anthropogenic stressors (represented by cropland coverage and human population density) and climatic stressors (represented by air temperature) with the local extinction of these mammals. We found that both intensified human disturbances and extreme climate change were associated with the increased local extinction of the study mammals. In the cold phase (the premodern period of China), climate cooling was positively associated with increased local extinction, while in the warm phase (the modern period) global warming was associated with increased local extinction. Interactive effects between human disturbance and temperature change with the local extinction of elephants, rhinos, pandas, and water deer were found. Large-sized mammals, such as elephants, rhinos, and pandas, showed earlier and larger population declines than small-sized ones. The local extinction sensitivities of these mammals to the human population density and standardized temperature were estimated during 1700 to 2000. The quantitative evidence for anthropogenic and climatic associations with mammalian extinction provided insights into the driving processes of species extinction, which has important implications for biodiversity conservation under accelerating global changes.

How a disease is transmitted affects our ability to determine R0, the average number of new cases caused by an infectious host at the onset of an epidemic. R0 becomes progressively more difficult to compute as transmission varies from directly transmitted diseases to diseases that are vector-borne to environmentally transmitted diseases. Pathogens responsible for diseases with environmental transmission are typically maintained in environmental reservoirs that exhibit a complex spatial distribution of local infectious zones (LIZs). Understanding host encounters with LIZs and pathogen persistence within LIZs is required for an accurate R0 and modeling these contacts requires an integrated geospatial and dynamical systems approach. Here we review how interactions between host and pathogen populations and environmental reservoirs are driven by landscape-level variables, and synthesize the quantitative framework needed to formulate outbreak response and disease control.

Mass mortality events caused by pulse anthropogenic or environmental perturbations (e.g., extreme weather, toxic spills or epizootics) severely reduce the abundance of a population in a short time. The frequency and impact of these events are likely to increase across the globe. Studies on how such events may affect ecological communities of inter-acting species are scarce. By combining a multispecies Gompertz model with a Bayesian state-space framework, we quantify community-level effects of a mass mortality event in a single species. We present a case study on a community of fish and zooplankton in the Barents Sea to illustrate how a mass mortality event of different intensities affecting the lower trophic level (krill) may propagate to higher trophic levels (capelin and cod). This approach is especially valuable for assessing community-level effects of potential anthropogenic-driven mass mortality events, owing to the ability to account for uncertainty in the assessed impact due to uncertainty about the ecological dynamics. We hence quantify how the assessed impact of a mass mortality event depends on the degree of precaution considered. We suggest that this approach can be useful for assessing the possible detrimental outcomes of toxic spills, for example oil spills, in relatively simple communities such as often found in the Arctic, a region under increasing influence of human activities due to increased land and sea use.

In this paper, we establish the explicit connection between deterministic trait-based population-level models (in the form of partial differential equations) and species-level models (in the form of ordinary differential equations), in the context of eco-evolutionary systems. In particular, by starting from a population-level model of density distributions in trait space, we derive what amounts to an extension of the typical models at the species level known from adaptive dynamics literature, to account not only for abundance and mean trait values, but also explicitly for trait variances. Thus, we arrive at an explicitly polymorphic model at the species level. The derivations make precise the relationship between the parameters in the two classes of models and allow us to distinguish between notions of fitness on the population and species levels. Through a formal stability analysis, we see that exponential growth of an eigenvalue in the trait covariance matrix corresponds to a breakdown of the underlying assumptions of the species-level model. In biological terms, this may be interpreted as a speciation event: that is, we obtain an explicit notion of the blow-up of the variance of (possibly a linear combination of) traits as a precursor to speciation. Moreover, since evolutionary volatility of the mean trait value is proportional to trait variance, this provides a notion that species at the cusp of speciation are also the most adaptive. We illustrate these concepts and considerations using a numerical simulation.