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BackgroundSouth Asian Americans experience disproportionately high burden of cardiovascular diseases. Estimating predicted heart failure (HF) risk distribution may facilitate targeted prevention. We estimated the distribution of 10-year predicted risk of incident HF in South Asian Americans and evaluated the associations with social determinants of health and clinical risk factors.Methods and resultsIn the Mediators of Atherosclerosis in South Asians Living in America (MASALA) Study, we calculated 10-year predicted HF risk using the Pooled Cohort Equations to Prevent Heart Failure multivariable model. Distributions of low (

AimsTo evaluate the prevalence of electrocardiogram (ECG) abnormalities in marijuana users as an indirect measure of subclinical cardiovascular disease (CVD).DesignLongitudinal and cross-sectional secondary data analysis from the CARDIA (Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults) study.SettingFour communities in the United States.ParticipantsA total of 2585 participants from the 5115 black and white men and women recruited at age 18-30 years in 1985 to 1986 in CARDIA.MeasurementsECG abnormalities coded as minor and major abnormalities with the Minnesota code of electrocardiographic findings at year 20. Self-reported current (past 30 days) and computed cumulative life-time marijuana use (one 'marijuana-year' corresponds to 365 days of use) through assessments every 2-5 years. We fitted logistic regression models adjusting for sex, race, center, education, age, tobacco smoking, physical activity, alcohol use and body mass index.FindingsAmong the 2585 participants with an ECG at year 20, mean age was 46, 57% were women, 45% were black; 83% had past exposure to marijuana and 11% were using marijuana currently. One hundred and seventy-three participants (7%) had major abnormalities and 944 (37%) had minor abnormalities. Comparing current with never use in multivariable-adjusted models, the odds ratio (OR) for major ECG abnormalities was 0.60 [95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.32-1.15] and for minor ECG abnormalities 1.21 (95% CI = 0.87-1.68). Results did not change after stratifying by sex and race. Cumulative marijuana use was not associated with ECG abnormalities.ConclusionIn a middle-aged US population, life-time cumulative and occasional current marijuana use were not associated with increases in electrocardiogram abnormalities. This adds to the growing body of evidence that occasional marijuana use and cardiovascular disease events and markers of subclinical atherosclerosis are not associated.

Background There are no available lifetime risk estimates of lower-extremity peripheral artery disease (PAD). Methods and Results Using data from 6 US community-based cohorts and the vital statistics, we estimated the prevalence and incidence of PAD, defined as an ankle-brachial index

Background & aimsInsulin resistance is a risk marker for non-alcoholic fatty liver disease, and a risk factor for liver disease progression. We assessed temporal trajectories of insulin resistance and β-cell response to serum glucose concentration throughout adulthood and their association with diabetes risk in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease.MethodsThree thousand and sixty participants from Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults, a prospective bi-racial cohort of adults age 18-30 years at baseline (1985-1986; Y0) who completed up to 5 exams over 25 years and had fasting insulin and glucose measurement were included. At Y25 (2010-2011), non-alcoholic fatty liver disease was assessed by noncontrast computed tomography after exclusion of other liver fat causes. Latent mixture modelling identified 25-year trajectories in homeostatic model assessment insulin resistance and β-cell response homeostatic model assessment-β.ResultsThree distinct trajectories were identified, separately, for homeostatic model assessment insulin resistance (low-stable [47%]; moderate-increasing [42%]; and high-increasing [12%]) and homeostatic model assessment-β (low-decreasing [16%]; moderate-decreasing [63%]; and high-decreasing [21%]). Y25 non-alcoholic fatty liver disease prevalence was 24.5%. Among non-alcoholic fatty liver disease, high-increasing homeostatic model assessment insulin resistance (referent: low-stable) was associated with greater prevalent (OR 95% CI = 8.0, 2.0-31.9) and incident (OR = 10.5, 2.6-32.8) diabetes after multivariable adjustment including Y0 or Y25 homeostatic model assessment insulin resistance. In contrast, non-alcoholic fatty liver disease participants with low-decreasing homeostatic model assessment-β (referent: high-decreasing) had the highest odds of prevalent (OR = 14.1, 3.9-50.9) and incident (OR = 10.3, 2.7-39.3) diabetes.ConclusionTrajectories of insulin resistance and β-cell response during young and middle adulthood are robustly associated with diabetes risk in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease. Thus, how persons with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease develop resistance to insulin provides important information about risk of diabetes in midlife above and beyond degree of insulin resistance at the time of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease assessment.

The ability of a 1-time measurement of non–high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (non–HDL-C) or low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) to predict the cumulative exposure to these lipids during early adulthood (age 18-40 years) and the associated atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk after age 40 years is not clear. The objectives of this study were to evaluate whether a 1-time measurement of non-HDL-C or LDL-C in a young adult can predict cumulative exposure to these lipids during early adulthood, and to quantify the association between cumulative exposure to non-HDL-C or LDL-C during early adulthood and the risk of ASCVD after age 40 years. We included CARDIA (Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults Study) participants who were free of cardiovascular disease before age 40 years, were not taking lipid-lowering medications, and had ≥3 measurements of LDL-C and non–HDL-C before age 40 years. First, we assessed the ability of a 1-time measurement of LDL-C or non–HDL-C obtained between age 18 and 30 years to predict the quartile of cumulative lipid exposure from ages 18 to 40 years. Second, we assessed the associations between quartiles of cumulative lipid exposure from ages 18 to 40 years with ASCVD events (fatal and nonfatal myocardial infarction and stroke) after age 40 years. Of 4,104 CARDIA participants who had multiple lipid measurements before and after age 30 years, 3,995 participants met our inclusion criteria and were in the final analysis set. A 1-time measure of non–HDL-C and LDL-C had excellent discrimination for predicting membership in the top or bottom quartiles of cumulative exposure (AUC: 0.93 for the 4 models). The absolute values of non–HDL-C and LDL-C that predicted membership in the top quartiles with the highest simultaneous sensitivity and specificity (highest Youden's Index) were >135 mg/dL for non–HDL-C and >118 mg/dL for LDL-C; the values that predicted membership in the bottom quartiles were <107 mg/dL for non–HDL-C and <96 mg/dL for LDL-C. Individuals in the top quartile of non–HDL-C and LDL-C exposure had demographic-adjusted HRs of 4.6 (95% CI: 2.84-7.29) and 4.0 (95% CI: 2.50-6.33) for ASCVD events after age 40 years, respectively, when compared with each bottom quartile. Single measures of non–HDL-C and LDL-C obtained between ages 18 and 30 years are highly predictive of cumulative exposure before age 40 years, which in turn strongly predicts later-life ASCVD events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background & aimsNon-alcoholic fatty liver disease is an epidemic. Identifying modifiable risk factors for non-alcoholic fatty liver disease development is essential to design effective prevention programmes. We tested whether 25-year patterns of body mass index change are associated with midlife non-alcoholic fatty liver disease.MethodsIn all, 4423 participants from Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults, a prospective population-based biracial cohort (age 18-30), underwent body mass index measurement at baseline (1985-1986) and 3 or more times over 25 years. At Year 25, 3115 had liver fat assessed by non-contrast computed tomography. Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease was defined as liver attenuation ≤40 Hounsfield Units after exclusions. Latent mixture modelling identified 25-year trajectories in body mass index per cent change (%Δ) from baseline.ResultsWe identified four distinct trajectories of BMI%Δ: stable (26.2% of cohort, 25-year BMI %Δ = 3.1%), moderate increase (46.0%, BMI%Δ = 21.7%), high increase (20.9%, BMI%Δ = 41.9%) and extreme increase (6.9%, BMI%Δ = 65.9%). Y25 non-alcoholic fatty liver disease prevalence was higher in groups with greater BMI %Δ: 4.1%, 9.3%, 13.0%, and 17.6%, respectively (P-trend

Background & aimsCardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of death among patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). Moderate drinking (vs abstinence) is associated with lower risk of CVD in the general population. We assessed whether alcohol use is associated with CVD risk in patients with NAFLD.MethodsWe analyzed data from participants in the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults longitudinal cohort study of 5115 black and white young adults, 18-30 years old, recruited from 4 cities in the United States from 1985 through 1986. Participants self-reported alcohol use at study entry and then again after 15, 20, and 25 years. At year 25 (2010-2011), participants underwent computed tomography examination of the thorax and abdomen and tissue Doppler echocardiography with myocardial strain measured by speckle tracking. Coronary artery calcification was defined as an Agatston score above 0. NAFLD was defined as liver attenuation

ImportancePersons with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) that is treated with antiretroviral therapy have improved longevity but face an elevated risk of myocardial infarction (MI) due to common MI risk factors and HIV-specific factors. Despite these elevated MI rates, optimal methods to predict MI risks for HIV-infected persons remain unclear.ObjectiveTo determine the extent to which existing and de novo estimation tools predict MI in a multicenter HIV cohort with rigorous MI adjudication.Design, setting, and participantsWe evaluated the performance of standard of care and 2 new data-derived MI risk estimation models in 5 Centers for AIDS Research Network of Integrated Clinical Systems sites across the United States where a multicenter clinical prospective cohort of 19 829 HIV-infected adults received care in inpatient and outpatient settings since 1995. The new risk estimation models were validated in a separate cohort from the derivation cohort.ExposuresTraditional cardiovascular risk factors, HIV viral load, CD4 lymphocyte count, statin use, antihypertensive use, and antiretroviral medication use were used to calculate predicted event rates.Main outcomes and measuresWe observed MI rates over the course of follow-up that were scaled to 10 years using the Greenwood-Nam-D'Agostino Kaplan-Meier approach to account for dropout and loss to follow-up before 10 years.ResultsOf the 11 288 patients with complete baseline data, 6904 were white and 9250 were men. Myocardial infarction rates were higher among black men (6.9 per 1000 person-years) and black women (7.2 per 1000 person-years) than white men (4.4 per 1000 person-years) and white women (3.3 per 1000 person-years), older participants (7.5 vs 2.2 MI per 1000 person-years for adults 40 years and older vs < 40 years old at study entry, respectively), and participants who were not virally suppressed (6.3 vs 4.7 per 1000 person-years for participants with and without detectable viral load, respectively). The 2013 Pooled Cohort Equations, which predict composite rates of MI and stroke, adequately discriminated MI risk (Harrell C statistic = 0.75; 95% CI, 0.71-0.78). Two data-derived models incorporating HIV-specific covariates exhibited weak calibration in a validation sample and did not discriminate risk any better (Harrell C statistic = 0.72; 95% CI, 0.67-0.78 and 0.73; 95% CI, 0.68-0.79) than the Pooled Cohort Equations. The Pooled Cohort Equations were moderately calibrated in the Centers for AIDS Research Network of Clinical Systems but predicted consistently lower MI rates.Conclusions and relevanceThe Pooled Cohort Equations discriminated MI risk and were moderately calibrated in this multicenter HIV cohort. Adding HIV-specific factors did not improve model performance. As HIV-infected cohorts capture and assess MI and stroke outcomes, researchers should revisit the performance of risk estimation tools.

ImportanceThe role of coronary artery calcium (CAC) testing for guiding preventive strategies among women at low cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk based on the American College of Cardiology and American Heart Association CVD prevention guidelines is unclear.ObjectiveTo assess the potential utility of CAC testing for CVD risk estimation and stratification among low-risk women.Design, setting, and participantsWomen with 10-year atherosclerotic CVD (ASCVD) risk lower than 7.5% from 5 large population-based cohorts: the Dallas Heart Study (United States), the Framingham Heart Study (United States), the Heinz Nixdorf Recall study (Germany), the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (United States), and the Rotterdam Study (the Netherlands). The 5 cohorts were selected based on the availability of CAC data in a sizable group of low-risk women from the general population together with the long detailed follow-up data. Across the cohorts, events were assessed from the date of CAC scan (performed from 1998 through 2006) until January 1, 2012; January 1, 2014; or March 6, 2015. Fixed-effects meta-analysis was conducted to combine the results of the 5 studies.ExposuresCAC score by computed tomography.Main outcomes and measuresMain outcome was incident ASCVD, including nonfatal myocardial infarction, coronary heart disease (CHD) death, and stroke. Association of CAC with ASCVD was examined using Cox proportional hazards models. To assess whether CAC was associated with improved ASCVD risk predictions beyond the traditional risk factors, the C statistic and the continuous net reclassification improvement (cNRI) index were calculated.ResultsAmong 6739 women with low ASCVD risk from the 5 studies, mean age ranged from 44 to 63 years and CAC was present in 36.1%. Across the cohorts, median follow-up ranged from 7.0 to 11.6 years. A total of 165 ASCVD events occurred (64 nonfatal myocardial infarctions, 29 CHD deaths, and 72 strokes), with the ASCVD incidence rates ranging from 1.5 to 6.0 per 1000 person-years. Compared with the absence of CAC (CAC = 0), presence of CAC (CAC >0) was associated with an increased risk of ASCVD (incidence rates per 1000 person-years, 1.41 for CAC absence vs 4.33 for CAC presence; difference, 2.92 [95% CI, 2.02-3.83]; multivariable-adjusted hazard ratio, 2.04 [95% CI, 1.44-2.90]). The addition of CAC to traditional risk factors improved the C statistic from 0.73 (95% CI, 0.69-0.77) to 0.77 (95% CI, 0.74-0.81) and provided a cNRI of 0.20 (95% CI, 0.09-0.31) for ASCVD prediction.Conclusions and relevanceAmong women at low ASCVD risk, CAC was present in approximately one-third and was associated with an increased risk of ASCVD and modest improvement in prognostic accuracy compared with traditional risk factors. Further research is needed to assess the clinical utility and cost-effectiveness of this additional accuracy.

BackgroundThe classic view of blood pressure (BP) reactivity to psychological stress in relation to cardiovascular risks assumes that excess reactivity is worse and lower reactivity is better. Evidence addressing how stress-induced BP reactivity in young adults is associated with midlife cognitive function is sparse.Methods and resultsWe assessed BP reactivity during a star tracing task and a video game in adults aged 20 to 32 years. Twenty-three years later, cognitive function was assessed with use of the Digit Symbol Substitution Test (a psychomotor speed test), the Rey Auditory Verbal Learning Test (a verbal memory test), and the modified Stroop test (an executive function test). At the time of follow-up, participants (n=3021) had a mean age of 50.2 years; 56% were women, and 44% were black. In linear regression models adjusted for demographic and clinical characteristics including baseline and follow-up resting BP, lower systolic BP (SBP) reactivity during the star tracing and video game was associated with worse Digit Symbol Substitution Test scores (β [SE]: 0.11 [0.02] and 0.05 [0.02], respectively) and worse performance on the Stroop test (β [SE]: -0.06 [0.02] and -0.05 [0.02]; all P

Whether long-term blood pressure (BP) variability throughout young adulthood is associated with cognitive function in midlife remains uncertain. Using data from the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA), which recruited healthy young adults aged 18 to 30 years (mean age, 25 years) at baseline (Y(0)), we assessed BP variability by SD and average real variability (ARV) for 25 years (8 visits). Cognitive function was assessed with the Digit Symbol Substitution Test (psychomotor speed test), the Rey Auditory Verbal Learning Test (verbal memory test), and the modified Stroop test (executive function test) at follow-up (Y(25)). At the Y(25) examination, participants (n=2326) had a mean age of 50.4 years, 43% were men, and 40% were black. In multivariable-adjusted linear regression models, higher ARV(SBP), ARV(DBP), and SD(DBP) were significantly associated with lower scores of Digit Symbol Substitution Test (β [SE]: -0.025 [0.006], -0.029 [0.007], and -0.029 [0.007], respectively; all P

BackgroundThe concept of cardiovascular health (CVH) was introduced as a global measure of one's burden of cardiovsacular risk factors. Previous studies established the relationship between neighborhood characteristics and individual cardiovascular risk factors. However, the relationship between neighborhood environment and overall CVH remains unknown.Methods and resultsWe analyzed data from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis baseline examination (2000–2002). Mean age was 61.6 years, and 52% were women. Ideal, intermediate, and poor categories of cholesterol, body mass index, diet, physical activity, fasting glucose, blood pressure, and smoking were defined according to the American Heart Association 2020 Strategic Goals, assigned an individual score, and summed to create an overall score. CVH scores were categorized into ideal (11–14 points), intermediate (9–10), and poor (0–8). Neighborhood exposures included favorable food store and physical activity resources densities (by 1-mile buffer), reported healthy food availability,walking/physical activity environment, safety, and social cohesion (by census tract). Multinomial logistic regression was used to determine the association of each characteristic with ideal and intermediate CVH, adjusted for demographics and neighborhood socioeconomic status. Over 20% of Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis participants had an ideal CVH score at baseline. In fully adjusted models, favorable food stores (odds ratio=1.22; 1.06–1.40), physical activity resources(odds ratio=1.19; 1.08–1.31), walking/physical activity environment (odds ratio=1.20; 1.05–1.37), and neighborhood socioeconomic status (odds ratio=1.22; 1.11–1.33) were associated with higher odds of having an ideal CVH score.ConclusionsNeighborhood environment including favorable food stores, physical activity resources, walking/physical activity environment, and neighborhood socioeconomic status are associated with ideal CVH. Further research is needed to investigate the longitudinal associations between neighborhood environment and CVH.

BackgroundThe association between high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) and coronary heart disease (CHD) events is not well described in individuals with very high levels of HDL-C (>80 mg/dL).Methods and resultsUsing pooled data from 6 community-based cohorts we examined CHD and total mortality risks across a broad range of HDL-C, including values in excess of 80 mg/dL. We used Cox proportional hazards models with penalized splines to assess multivariable, adjusted, sex-stratified associations of HDL-C with the hazard for CHD events and total mortality, using HDL-C 45 mg/dL and 55 mg/dL as the referent in men and women, respectively. Analyses included 11 515 men and 12 925 women yielding 307 245 person-years of follow-up. In men, the association between HDL-C and CHD events was inverse and linear across most HDL-C values; however at HDL-C values >90 mg/dL there was a plateau effect in the pattern of association. In women, the association between HDL-C and CHD events was inverse and linear across lower values of HDL-C, however at HDL-C values >75 mg/dL there were no further reductions in the hazard ratio point estimates for CHD. In unadjusted models there were increased total mortality risks in men with very high HDL-C, however mortality risks observed in participants with very high HDL-C were attenuated after adjustment for traditional risk factors.ConclusionsWe did not observe further reductions in CHD risk with HDL-C values higher than 90 mg/dL in men and 75 mg/dL in women.