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There is growing evidence that as a consequence of climate change the frequency of extreme hydrological events will increase. Predicting the impacts of these extreme events on ecological systems is a major research challenge. It is predicted that change in future river flows, characterised by greater occurrence of floods and droughts, will have profound impacts on aquatic invertebrate communities by removing sensitive species and restructuring food networks. However, it remains unclear how an increase in these hydrological extremes will impact on riparian communities and species at higher trophic levels. Here, we describe a new methodology that facilitates the integration of quantitative outputs of species’ distribution models with the expert knowledge of conservation practitioners to produce a species’ vulnerability index (SVI). Using our SVI framework, we assessed and ranked the vulnerability of 16 river bird species to a potential climate-induced shift in the frequency, duration and magnitude of flood and drought events. Vulnerability was associated primarily with ecological traits that restrict species to in-channel riverine habitat. Whilst the SVI was developed to assess species’ vulnerability to hydrological extremes on rivers, it is equally applicable to other environmental domains as well as a range of avian and non-avian taxa. Furthermore, this original methodological approach provides researchers and managers with a valuable conservation tool that allows them to identify the species most vulnerable to climate change impacts and plan mitigation and adaptation strategies.

Action to reduce anthropogenic impact on the environment and species within it will be most effective when targeted towards activities that have the greatest impact on biodiversity. To do this effectively we need to better understand the relative importance of different activities and how they drive changes in species’ populations. Here, we present a novel, flexible framework that reviews evidence for the relative importance of these drivers of change and uses it to explain recent alterations in species’ populations. We review drivers of change across four hundred species sampled from a broad range of taxonomic groups in the UK. We found that species’ population change (~1970–2012) has been most strongly impacted by intensive management of agricultural land and by climatic change. The impact of the former was primarily deleterious, whereas the impact of climatic change to date has been more mixed. Findings were similar across the three major taxonomic groups assessed (insects, vascular plants and vertebrates). In general, the way a habitat was managed had a greater impact than changes in its extent, which accords with the relatively small changes in the areas occupied by different habitats during our study period, compared to substantial changes in habitat management. Of the drivers classified as conservation measures, low-intensity management of agricultural land and habitat creation had the greatest impact. Our framework could be used to assess the relative importance of drivers at a range of scales to better inform our policy and management decisions. Furthermore, by scoring the quality of evidence, this framework helps us identify research gaps and needs.

Anthropogenic forcing of the climate is causing an intensification of the global water cycle, leading to an increase in the frequency and magnitude of floods and droughts. River flow shapes the ecology of riverine ecosystems and climate-driven changes in river flows are predicted to have severe consequences for riverine species, across all levels of trophic organization. However, understanding species' responses to variation in flow is limited through a lack of quantitative modelling of hydroecological interactions. Here, we construct a Bioclimatic Envelope Model (BEM) ensemble based on a suite of plausible future flow scenarios to show how predicted alterations in flow regimes may alter the distribution of a predatory riverine species, the White-throated Dipper (Cinclus cinclus). Models predicted a gradual diminution of dipper probability of occurrence between present day and 2098. This decline was most rapid in western areas of Great Britain and was principally driven by a projected decrease in flow magnitude and variability around low flows. Climate-induced changes in river flow may, therefore, represent a previously unidentified mechanism by which climate change may mediate range shifts in birds and other riverine biota.

Summary Biodiversity is changing at unprecedented rates, and it is increasingly important that these changes are quantified through monitoring programmes. Previous recommendations for developing or enhancing these programmes focus either on the end goals, that is the intended use of the data, or on how these goals are achieved, for example through volunteer involvement in citizen science, but not both. These recommendations are rarely prioritized.We used a collaborative approach, involving 52 experts in biodiversity monitoring in the UK, to develop a list of attributes of relevance to any biodiversity monitoring programme and to order these attributes by their priority. We also ranked the attributes according to their importance in monitoring biodiversity in the UK. Experts involved included data users, funders, programme organizers and participants in data collection. They covered expertise in a wide range of taxa.We developed a final list of 25 attributes of biodiversity monitoring schemes, ordered from the most elemental (those essential for monitoring schemes; e.g. articulate the objectives and gain sufficient participants) to the most aspirational (e.g. electronic data capture in the field, reporting change annually). This ordered list is a practical framework which can be used to support the development of monitoring programmes.People's ranking of attributes revealed a difference between those who considered attributes with benefits to end users to be most important (e.g. people from governmental organizations) and those who considered attributes with greatest benefit to participants to be most important (e.g. people involved with volunteer biological recording schemes). This reveals a distinction between focussing on aims and the pragmatism in achieving those aims. Synthesis and applications. The ordered list of attributes developed in this study will assist in prioritizing resources to develop biodiversity monitoring programmes (including citizen science). The potential conflict between end users of data and participants in data collection that we discovered should be addressed by involving the diversity of stakeholders at all stages of programme development. This will maximize the chance of successfully achieving the goals of biodiversity monitoring programmes., The ordered list of attributes developed in this study will assist in prioritizing resources to develop biodiversity monitoring programmes (including citizen science). The potential conflict between end users of data and participants in data collection that we discovered should be addressed by involving the diversity of stakeholders at all stages of programme development. This will maximize the chance of successfully achieving the goals of biodiversity monitoring programmes.

Els avanços en l’aplicació de la geoestadística en els darrers anys han millorat la precisió en la predicció de la probabilitat d’aparició o abundància relativa a llocs no mostrejats i, per tant, han permès el desenvolupament del potencial necessari per a la producció de mapes fiables en tota l’àrea d’interès. En aquest treball s’avalua, a dues escales espacials, l’ús de la geoestadística per a la producció de mapes d’abundància relativa estadísticament vàlids a partir de les dades del seguiment anual d’ocells nidificants del Regne Unit, el Breeding Bird Survey (BBS). Si bé actualment s’estan estudiant enfocaments que optimitzin la precisió d’aquesta metodologia, és important explorar fins a quin punt el BBS, amb al voltant de 2.000 quadrats 1x1 km anualment mostrejats (