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Проблематика. Прогнозування нелінійних нестаціонарних процесів (ННП), поданих у формі часових рядів, є актуальним, оскільки такі ряди можуть описувати процеси в технічних й економічних системах. Для вибору найкращої математичної моделі використовують різні метрики оцінювання якості прогнозів, як-от: R^2, RMSE, MAE, MAPE. Однак оптимізація моделі за одним критерієм погіршує її відносно іншого. Тому важливо розуміти, яку метрику слід використовувати для оптимізації та оцінки якості прогнозу в поставленій задачі. Мета дослідження. Розробити та проаналізувати критеріальну базу для оцінювання прогнозів ННП, а також підхід до вибору критерію якості з урахуванням особливостей поставленої задачі прогнозування. Методика реалізації. Виконання порівняльного аналізу основних метрик для задачі регресії, а саме їхнього теоретичного та практичного змісту, переваг і недоліків у різних випадках. Результати дослідження. Сформовано критеріальну базу для оцінювання прогнозів ННП, а також підхід до вибору критерію якості з урахуванням особливостей поставленої задачі прогнозування. Для мінімізації абсолютної похибки проаналізовано та рекомендовано використовувати метрики RMSE (MSE, R^2) і MAE залежно від необхідності роботи з викидами. Для розв’язання задач мінімізації відносної помилки запропоновано використовувати метрику RMSLE. Висновки. Показано важливість вибору метрики для оптимізації та оцінювання якості прогнозу в поставленій задачі. Отримані критеріальну базу та підхід можна використовувати в подальших дослідженнях як для розв’язання практичних задач моделювання та прогнозування ННП, так і для розробки нових методів або загальної методики розв’язання цих задач.

The study is directed towards development of an adaptive decision support system for modeling and forecasting nonlinear nonstationary processes in economy, finances and other areas of human activities. The structure and parameter adaptation procedures for the regression and probabilistic models are proposed as well as the respective information system architecture and functional layout are developed. The system development is based on the system analysis principles such as adaptive model structure estimation, optimization of model parameter estimation procedures, identification and taking into consideration of possible uncertainties met in the process of data processing and mathematical model development. The uncertainties are inherent to data collecting, model constructing and forecasting procedures and play a role of negative influence factors to the information system computational procedures. Reduction of their influence is favourable for enhancing the quality of intermediate and final results of computations. The illustrative examples of practical application of the system developed proving the system functionality are provided.

Background and Objective: A hilar location for a renal tumour is sometimes viewed as a limiting factor for safe partial nephrectomy. Our aim was to evaluate perioperative, oncological, and functional outcomes of robot-assisted partial nephrectomy (RAPN) for hilar tumours (RAPN-H) in comparison to RAPN for nonhilar tumours (RAPN-NH)., Methods: We conducted an observational, multicentre cohort study using prospectively collected data from the French Research Network on Kidney Cancer (UroCCR). The registry includes data for 3551 patients who underwent RAPN for localised or locally advanced renal masses between 2010 and 2023 in 29 hospitals in France. We studied the impact of a hilar location on surgery, postoperative renal function, tumour characteristics, and survival. We also compared rates of trifecta achievement (warm ischaemia time [WIT] <25 min, negative surgical margins, and no perioperative complications) between the groups. Finally, we performed a subgroup analysis of RAPN without vascular clamping. Variables were compared in univariable analysis and using multivariable linear, logistic, and Cox proportional-hazards models adjusted for relevant patient and tumour covariates., Key Findings and Limitations: The analytical population included 3451 patients, of whom 2773 underwent RAPN-NH and 678 underwent RAPN-H. Longer WIT (β = 2.4 min; p < 0.01), longer operative time (β = 11.4 min; p < 0.01) and a higher risk of postoperative complications (odds ratio 1.33; p = 0.05) were observed in the hilar group. Blood loss, the perioperative transfusion rate, postoperative changes in the estimated glomerular filtration rate, and trifecta achievement rates were comparable between the groups (p > 0.05). At mean follow-up of 31.9 mo, there was no significant difference in recurrence-free survival (hazard ratio [HR] 0.82, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.58-1.2; p = 0.3), cancer-specific survival (HR 1.1, 95% CI 0.48-2.6; p = 0.79), or overall survival (HR 0.89, 95% CI 0.52-1.53; p = 0.69)., Conclusions and Clinical Implications: Patient and tumour characteristics rather than just hilar location should be the main determinants of the optimal surgical strategy for hilar tumours., Patient Summary: We found that kidney tumours located close to major kidney blood vessels led to a longer operation and a higher risk of complications during robot-assisted surgery to remove the tumour. However, tumours in these locations were not related to a higher risk of kidney function loss, cancer recurrence, or death., (Copyright © 2024 European Association of Urology. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Introduction: The rising incidence of renal cell carcinoma (RCC) is a significant concern in cancer research. This study analyses the characteristics of RCC patients based on their socio-professional category and explores the role of chlorinated solvents as a risk factor., Materials and Methods: A multicentre, descriptive epidemiological study was conducted using the UroCCR database. All patients from participating centres who had been diagnosed with RCC between July 2021 and February 2023, as well as those seen for follow-up consultation during this period, were included. Patients were categorised into 5 socio-professional groups based on INSEE's Profession and Social Categories classification. The characteristics and risk factors of RCC for each group were compared. Binary logistic regression was used to study the exposure to chlorinated solvents and risk factors for clear cell RCC (ccRCC)., Results: A total of 1252 patients were included. Males made up 69.6% of the population. The median age was 64 years, and 87% of the patients had at least one RCC risk factor. ccRCC, papillary, and chromophobe types accounted for 78%, 14.9%, and 8.5% of the population, respectively. The median tumor size was 4.5 cm (SD = 3.3). Farmers had a higher prevalence of ccRCC (91.3%; p = 0.05) and larger tumors (median = 6 cm SD = 3.23; p = 0.038) than patients from other populations. Smoking and obesity rates were lower (10.1%; p < 0.001; 15.9%, p = 0.018, respectively), but exposure to chlorinated solvents was higher (50.7%; p < 0.001). Exposure to chlorinated solvents was independently associated with higher TNM stages (p = 0.044, OR = 1.41 CI (1.01; 1.96)). Obesity and exposure to chlorinated solvents were independent risk factors for ccRCC (p = 0.006, OR = 1.6 CI (1.1;2.2) and p = 0.028, OR = 1.6 CI (1.1;2.6), respectively)., Conclusion: This study shows the influence of socio-professional categories on exposure to RCC risk factors and tumor characteristics. In particular, farmers stood out from the rest of the study population. Their significant exposure to chlorinated solvents could be an interesting factor to investigate., Competing Interests: Declarations. Competing interests: The authors declare no competing interests., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Background: In 2021, the EAU Guidelines implemented a novel, expert opinion-based follow-up scheme, with a three-risk-category system for clear cell (cc) and non-cc renal cell carcinoma (non-ccRCC) after surgery with curative intent. We aimed to validate the novel follow-up scheme and provide data-driven recurrence estimates according to risk groups, to confirm or implement the oncologic surveillance strategy., Methods: We identified 5,320 patients from a prospectively maintained database involving 28 French referral centers. The risk of recurrence, as either loco-regional or distant, was evaluated with the Kaplan-Meier method for each group (low- intermediate- or high-risk) according to ccRCC or non-ccRCC histology. The noncumulative distribution of recurrences was graphically investigated through the LOWESS smoother., Results: Two thousand two hundred ninety-three (58%), 926 (23%), and 738 (19%) had low-, intermediate, and high-risk ccRCC, and 683 (50%), 297 (22%), and 383 (28%) had low-, intermediate, and high-risk non-ccRCC, respectively. Median follow-up for survivors was 46 months. Overall, 661 patients experienced recurrence. Over time, the noncumulative risk of recurrence was approximately 10% for low-risk cc-RCC, non-ccRCC, and intermediate-risk non-ccRCC, with non-significant difference among the three recurrence functions (P=0.9). At 5-year, time point after which imaging should be de-intensified to biennial, the noncumulative risks of recurrence were: for intermediate risk ccRCC and non-ccRCC: 15% and 11%, respectively; for high-risk ccRCC and non-ccRCC: 24% and 8%, respectively. Among high-risk non-ccRCC patients there were 9 recurrences at 3-month. There was no significant difference between the recurrence function of high-risk non-ccRCC patients with negative imaging at 3-month and the one of intermediate-risk ccRCC (P=0.3)., Conclusions: Given the relatively low recurrence risk of patients with intermediate-risk non-ccRCC, those individuals could be followed up with a similar strategy to the low-risk category. Similarly, patients with high-risk non-ccRCC with negative imaging at 3-month, could be followed up similarly to intermediate-risk ccRCC after the 3-month time point.

Background: There is no definitive evidence of the prognosis impact of histological variants (HVs) in patients who undergo surgical resection of a nonmetastatic renal cell carcinoma (nm-RCC) with venous tumor thrombus (TT)., Objective: To investigate the impact of HVs on the prognosis of patients with nm-RCC with TT after radical surgery., Design Setting and Participants: Patients who underwent radical nephrectomy with the removal of the venous TT for an nm-RCC were included in a retrospective study., Outcome Measurements and Statistical Analysis: Three groups were identified: clear cell (ccRCC), papillary (pRCC), and chromophobe (chRCC) RCC. The primary outcome measures (disease-free and overall survival [OS]) were assessed using the Kaplan-Meier method and compared using the log-rank test. Univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazard models were used to study the impact of HVs on survival., Results and Limitations: A total of 873 patients were included. The histological subtypes were distributed as follows: ccRCC in 780 cases, pRCC in 58 cases, and chRCC in 35 cases. At the time of data analysis, 612 patients were recurrence free and 228 had died. A survival analysis revealed significant differences in both OS and recurrence-free survival across histological subtypes, with the poorest outcomes observed in pRCC patients ( p  < 0.05). In a multivariable analysis, pRCC was independently associated with worse disease-free survival and OS (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.71; p  = 0.01 and HR: 1.24; p  = 0.04), while chRCC was associated with more favorable outcomes than ccRCC (HR: 0.05; p  < 0.001 and HR: 0.02; p  < 0.001). A limitation of the study is its retrospective nature., Conclusions: In this multicentric series, HVs appeared to impact the medium-term oncological prognosis of kidney cancer with TT., Patient Summary: This study investigated the differences in oncological outcomes among histological variants (clear cell, papillary, and chromophobe) in a cohort of nonmetastatic renal cell carcinoma patients with venous tumor thrombus extension. We observed that these histological variants within this specific subgroup exhibit distinct outcomes, with papillary renal cell carcinoma being associated with the worst prognosis., (© 2024 The Authors.)

Objective: Assess the early morbidity after HOLEP, the urinary incontinence in particular, and specify its different types, evolution, and predictive factors., Patients and Methods: We conducted an observational, analytical, retrospective, monocentric study including all patients undergoing surgery for benign prostatic hypertrophy (HBP) by HoLEP between November 2015 and January 2017. The data were collected pre-, per- and postoperatively. The follow-up was for 6 months., Results: One hundred and seventy one patients were included. 23 patients (14.6%) had a complication according to Clavien-Dindo classification [4]: 19 (83%) Clavien 2, 1 (4%) Clavien 3b et 3 (13%) Clavien 4. At one month of the surgery, 64 (42.7%) patients had urinary incontinence of which 55 (86.1%) presented pure stress urinary incontinence. 18 (32.7%) were still incontinent at 6 months of the surgery. The delivered amount of energy during the surgery and the preoperative IIEF5 score were statistically significantly associated with the occurrence rate of stress urinary incontinence. There was no correlation between the surgeon's learning curve and the occurrence of incontinence., Conclusion: The occurrence rate of urinary incontinence post HoLEP might be related to the adopted surgical technique ; It is crucial to keep the patient well informed of the risk of this complication postoperatively., Level of Evidence: 4., (Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.)

Background: Widespread adoption of the AMS-800 artificial urinary sphincter (AUS) in female patients has been hampered by the surgical morbidity of its implantation through an open approach., Objective: To describe a standardized technique of robotic bladder neck AUS implantation in female patients, and to report the perioperative and functional outcomes obtained by multiple surgeons with this technique., Design, Settings, and Participants: We retrospectively reviewed the charts of all female patients who underwent robotic AUS implantation for urinary incontinence due to intrinsic sphincter deficiency between March 2012 and March 2017 in five institutions. Most of the 10 surgeons involved were not highly experienced in female AUS implantation and/or in robotic surgery., Surgical Procedure: The AUS is implanted at the bladder neck through a transperitoneal robotic approach. The finger placed by the assistant surgeon in the vagina is paramount to expose the vesicovaginal space and guide the robotic surgeon throughout the bladder neck dissection., Measurements: The primary endpoint was the incontinence categorized as complete continence(ie, no pads used), improved incontinence, or unchanged incontinence., Results and Limitations: Forty-nine female patients underwent a robotic AUS implantation. There were eight intraoperative complications (16.3%): five bladder neck injuries and three vaginal injuries. Nine patients experienced postoperative complications (18.3%), but only two were Clavien ≥3 (4.1%). After a median follow-up of 18.5 mo, one explantation (vaginal erosion, 2.1%) and three revisions (one mechanical and two nonmechanical failure, 6.1%) were needed. At last follow-up, 40 patients were fully continent (81.6%), six had improved incontinence (12.2%), and three had unchanged incontinence (6.1%)., Conclusions: In this first multicenter series of robot-assisted AUS implantation, our technique appeared feasible, safe, and reproducible with perioperative and functional outcomes in the early learning curve not inferior to those reported in large series of open AUS implantation from tertiary referral centers., Patient Summary: Robot-assisted bladder neck AMS-800 artificial urinary sphincter implantation in female patients with stress urinary incontinence resulting from intrinsic sphincter deficiency is feasible, safe, and reproducible with promising outcomes., (Copyright © 2018 European Association of Urology. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Objective: To report the results of UroLift(®) implants after a 2-year experience in the technique., Patients and Methods: The procedure was proposed between February 2012 and April 2014 in patients with symptomatic benign prostatic hyperplasia, as an alternative to standard endoscopic ablation techniques. Evaluation of BPH related symptoms relied on the IPSS and IPSS-QoL self-questionnaires, as well as on maximum uroflow (Qmax). Evaluation of erectile and ejaculatory functions relied on the IIEF5 and MSHQ-EjD self-questionnaires, respectively., Results: A total of 23 patients were treated during this period. Median age was 66 years [53-78]. Median prostate volume was 38mL [20-80]. Preoperative IPSS and IPSS-QoL were 20 [9-29] and 5 [3-6], respectively. No severe adverse event was observed postoperatively. Median follow-up was 14 [5-31] months. At the end of follow-up, 19 (83%) patients reported sustained symptomatic improvement without any additional treatment. Median IPSS and IPSS-QoL were improved significantly (11 [1-27] and 2 [0-6], P<0.0001), with however no significant improvement in Qmax. Four patients needed additional treatment during the first postoperative year. Among them, 3 had a prostate volume>60mL. No patient reported retrograde ejaculation or worsened erectile function., Conclusions: UroLift(®) implants allowed symptomatic improvement in more than 80% of the patients after 1-year follow-up. A high prostate volume may potentially be predictive of symptomatic failure., Level of Proof: 5., (Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.)

Objectives: To evaluate and compare scar-related satisfaction in patients treated with open (ORP) versus laparoscopic radical prostatectomy (LRP)., Patients and Method: We prospectively included all patients treated with ORP and LRP in our department between March and June 2010. Scar-related outcomes were collected at 1 and 3 months postoperatively. Three months after surgery, all patients filled up a questionnaire concerning their scar-related symptoms, scar self-consciousness and satisfaction. These variables were statistically compared between the two groups., Results: A total of 101 patients were included for analysis. Of them, 48, 49 and 4 were treated with LRP, ORP and LRP converted to ORP, respectively. Age distribution was not statistically different between groups. Postoperatively, 5 patients experienced skin infection on their scar site, 2 in the ORP and 3 in the LRP group. The most frequently reported symptom was scar itching, that was more frequent after LRP, although difference was not significant (33 vs. 19%, p = 0.2). According to patient scar-related consciousness, satisfaction and impact on quality of life, no differences were reported between groups. Impact on quality of life was insignificant in 27 (55%) versus 21 (44%) patients after ORP and LRP, respectively (p = 0.3)., Conclusion: With an overall low impact on satisfaction and quality of life, scars gendered by LRP and ORP were not different from patients' point of view. In patients undergoing radical prostatectomy, the cosmetic aspect of scars does not seem to be a concern.

Objective: To evaluate the value of multiparametric MRI-targeted prostate biopsies in patients with suspected low-risk prostate cancer., Patients and Method: Patients with normal digital rectal examination and a PSA level between 4 and 10 ng/mL were prospectively included. A multiparametric MRI of the prostate was performed prospectively before the biopsies. 12-core randomized biopsies were performed, with additional targeted samples in each suspicious area identified on MRI. Detected cancers and their histological characteristics were compared between those two biopsy protocols. A micro focal cancer (MFC) was defined by the presence of less than 4mm of Gleason score 3+3 cancer on a single core., Results: Seventy-one consecutive patients were included. The overall detection rate was of 53% (38/71). It was of 70% (26/37) in the presence of suspicious area on MRI versus 35% (12/34) in the absence of any suspicious area (P=0.004). MRI-targeted biopsies alone detected three cancers, none of which was a MFC. 12-core biopsies alone detected 14 cancers, including ten MFC (71%). In 21 patients, prostate cancer was detected by both the MRI-targeted and 12-core biopsies. The Gleason score in the MRI-targeted area was the highest Gleason score in 90% of the cases. It was high (>6) in 76% (16/21) of the patients., Conclusions: MRI-targeted biopsies detected less micro focal cancers than randomized 12-core biopsies. They did not seem however to decrease the detection of clinically significant cancers., (Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.)

Introduction: To determine the accuracy of a 12-core biopsy protocol in assessing the location of prostate tumors within radical prostatectomy (RP) specimens., Materials and Methods: A consecutive series of patients with T1c stage prostate cancer who had undergone 12 ultrasound-guided prostate biopsies prior to RP was considered. The locations of the biopsies from prostate gland mapping were compared with the locations of tumor tissues obtained after analysis of the prostate specimens., Results: Overall, 78 patients (27.4%) were included. The median PSA level was 6 ng/mL. The median prostate weight was 45 g (range 22 to 102). Overall, 936 biopsies were performed in the 78 men, of which 254 biopsies were positive. The mean number of positive biopsies per patient was 3.7 (range 1 to 12). Pathologic examination of the surgical specimens revealed that 58 (74.4%) patients had pT2 disease and 20 patients (25.6%) had locally advanced disease (pT3). The biopsy protocol's sensitivity, specificity and positive predictive value for tumor location were 0.34, 0.83 and 0.84. The performance of the protocol was modest in assessing the exact tumor location (area under curve (AUC) 0.581, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.489-0.719)., Conclusions: Routine, ultrasound-guided, systematic 12-core biopsies lack precision in prostate tumor mapping.