Search

Estimates of winter (snow-covered non-growing season) CO2 fluxes across the Arctic region vary by a factor of 3.5, with considerable variation between measured and simulated fluxes. Measurements of snow properties, soil temperatures, and net ecosystem exchange (NEE) at Trail Valley Creek, NWT, Canada, allowed for the evaluation of simulated winter NEE in a tundra environment with the Community Land Model (CLM5.0). Default CLM5.0 parameterisations did not adequately simulate winter NEE in this tundra environment, with near-zero NEE (< 0.01 gCm-2d-1) simulated between November and mid-May. In contrast, measured NEE was broadly positive (indicating net CO2 release) from snow-cover onset until late April. Changes to the parameterisation of snow thermal conductivity, required to correct for a cold soil temperature bias, reduced the duration for which no NEE was simulated. Parameter sensitivity analysis revealed the critical role of the minimum soil moisture threshold of decomposition (Ψmin) in regulating winter soil respiration. The default value of this parameter (Ψmin) was too high, preventing simulation of soil respiration for the vast majority of the snow-covered season. In addition, the default rate of change of soil respiration with temperature (Q10) was too low, further contributing to poor model performance during winter. As Ψmin and Q10 had opposing effects on the magnitude of simulated winter soil respiration, larger negative values of Ψmin and larger positive values of Q10 are required to simulate wintertime NEE more adequately.

The carbon cycle in Arctic–boreal regions (ABRs) is an important component of the planetary carbon balance, with growing concerns about the consequences of ABR warming for the global climate system. The greatest uncertainty in annual carbon dioxide (CO2) budgets exists during winter, primarily due to challenges with data availability and limited spatial coverage in measurements. The goal of this study was to determine the main environmental controls of winter CO2 fluxes in ABRs over a latitudinal gradient (45∘ to 69∘ N) featuring four different ecosystem types: closed-crown coniferous boreal forest, open-crown coniferous boreal forest, erect-shrub tundra, and prostrate-shrub tundra. CO2 fluxes calculated using a snowpack diffusion gradient method (n=560) ranged from 0 to 1.05 g C m2 d−1. To assess the dominant environmental controls governing CO2 fluxes, a random forest machine learning approach was used. We identified soil temperature as the main control of winter CO2 fluxes with 68 % of relative model importance, except when soil liquid water occurred during 0 ∘C curtain conditions (i.e., Tsoil≈0 ∘C and liquid water coexist with ice in soil pores). Under zero-curtain conditions, liquid water content became the main control of CO2 fluxes with 87 % of relative model importance. We observed exponential regressions between CO2 fluxes and soil temperature in fully frozen soils (RMSE=0.024 gCm-2d-1; 70.3 % of mean FCO2) and soils around the freezing point (RMSE=0.286 gCm-2d-1; 112.4 % of mean FCO2). FCO2 increases more rapidly with Tsoil around the freezing point than at Tsoil ∘C. In zero-curtain conditions, the strongest regression was found with soil liquid water content (RMSE=0.137 gCm-2d-1; 49.1 % of mean FCO2). This study shows the role of several variables in the spatio-temporal variability in CO2 fluxes in ABRs during winter and highlights that the complex vegetation–snow–soil interactions in northern environments must be considered when studying what drives the spatial variability in soil carbon emissions during winter.

Spaceborne microwave remote sensing (300 MHz–100 GHz) provides a valuable method for characterizing environmental changes, especially in Arctic–boreal regions (ABRs) where ground observations are generally spatially and temporally scarce. Although direct measurements of carbon fluxes are not feasible, spaceborne microwave radiometers and radar can monitor various important surface and near-surface variables that affect terrestrial carbon cycle processes such as respiratory carbon dioxide (CO2) fluxes; photosynthetic CO2 uptake; and processes related to net methane (CH4) exchange including CH4 production, transport and consumption. Examples of such controls include soil moisture and temperature, surface freeze–thaw cycles, vegetation water storage, snowpack properties and land cover. Microwave remote sensing also provides a means for independent aboveground biomass estimates that can be used to estimate aboveground carbon stocks. The microwave data record spans multiple decades going back to the 1970s with frequent (daily to weekly) global coverage independent of atmospheric conditions and solar illumination. Collectively, these advantages hold substantial untapped potential to monitor and better understand carbon cycle processes across ABRs. Given rapid climate warming across ABRs and the associated carbon cycle feedbacks to the global climate system, this review argues for the importance of rapid integration of microwave information into ABR terrestrial carbon cycle science.

Arctic soils store large amounts of organic carbon and other elements, such as amorphous silicon, silicon, calcium, iron, aluminum, and phosphorous. Global warming is projected to be most pronounced in the Arctic, leading to thawing permafrost which, in turn, changes the soil element availability. To project how biogeochemical cycling in Arctic ecosystems will be affected by climate change, there is a need for data on element availability. Here, we analyzed the amorphous silicon (ASi) content as a solid fraction of the soils as well as Mehlich III extractions for the bioavailability of silicon (Si), calcium (Ca), iron (Fe), phosphorus (P), and aluminum (Al) from 574 soil samples from the circumpolar Arctic region. We show large differences in the ASi fraction and in Si, Ca, Fe, Al, and P availability among different lithologies and Arctic regions. We summarize these data in pan-Arctic maps of the ASi fraction and available Si, Ca, Fe, P, and Al concentrations, focusing on the top 100 cm of Arctic soil. Furthermore, we provide element availability values for the organic and mineral layers of the seasonally thawing active layer as well as for the uppermost permafrost layer. Our spatially explicit data on differences in the availability of elements between the different lithological classes and regions now and in the future will improve Arctic Earth system models for estimating current and future carbon and nutrient feedbacks under climate change (https://doi.org/10.17617/3.8KGQUN, Schaller and Goeckede, 2022).

Snowpack microstructure controls the transfer of heat to, as well as the temperature of, the underlying soils. In situ measurements of snow and soil properties from four field campaigns during two winters (March and November 2018, January and March 2019) were compared to an ensemble of CLM5.0 (Community Land Model) simulations, at Trail Valley Creek, Northwest Territories, Canada. Snow micropenetrometer profiles allowed for snowpack density and thermal conductivity to be derived at higher vertical resolution (1.25 mm) and a larger sample size (n=1050) compared to traditional snowpit observations (3 cm vertical resolution; n=115). Comparing measurements with simulations shows CLM overestimated snow thermal conductivity by a factor of 3, leading to a cold bias in wintertime soil temperatures (RMSE=5.8 ∘C). Two different approaches were taken to reduce this bias: alternative parameterisations of snow thermal conductivity and the application of a correction factor. All the evaluated parameterisations of snow thermal conductivity improved simulations of wintertime soil temperatures, with that of Sturm et al. (1997) having the greatest impact (RMSE=2.5 ∘C). The required correction factor is strongly related to snow depth (R2=0.77,RMSE=0.066) and thus differs between the two snow seasons, limiting the applicability of such an approach. Improving simulated snow properties and the corresponding heat flux is important, as wintertime soil temperatures are an important control on subnivean soil respiration and hence impact Arctic winter carbon fluxes and budgets.

Past efforts to synthesize and quantify the magnitude and change in carbon dioxide (CO2) fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems across the rapidly warming Arctic–boreal zone (ABZ) have provided valuable information but were limited in their geographical and temporal coverage. Furthermore, these efforts have been based on data aggregated over varying time periods, often with only minimal site ancillary data, thus limiting their potential to be used in large-scale carbon budget assessments. To bridge these gaps, we developed a standardized monthly database of Arctic–boreal CO2 fluxes (ABCflux) that aggregates in situ measurements of terrestrial net ecosystem CO2 exchange and its derived partitioned component fluxes: gross primary productivity and ecosystem respiration. The data span from 1989 to 2020 with over 70 supporting variables that describe key site conditions (e.g., vegetation and disturbance type), micrometeorological and environmental measurements (e.g., air and soil temperatures), and flux measurement techniques. Here, we describe these variables, the spatial and temporal distribution of observations, the main strengths and limitations of the database, and the potential research opportunities it enables. In total, ABCflux includes 244 sites and 6309 monthly observations; 136 sites and 2217 monthly observations represent tundra, and 108 sites and 4092 observations represent the boreal biome. The database includes fluxes estimated with chamber (19 % of the monthly observations), snow diffusion (3 %) and eddy covariance (78 %) techniques. The largest number of observations were collected during the climatological summer (June–August; 32 %), and fewer observations were available for autumn (September–October; 25 %), winter (December–February; 18 %), and spring (March–May; 25 %). ABCflux can be used in a wide array of empirical, remote sensing and modeling studies to improve understanding of the regional and temporal variability in CO2 fluxes and to better estimate the terrestrial ABZ CO2 budget. ABCflux is openly and freely available online (Virkkala et al., 2021b, https://doi.org/10.3334/ORNLDAAC/1934).

Methane emissions from boreal and arctic wetlands, lakes, and rivers are expected to increase in response to warming and associated permafrost thaw. However, the lack of appropriate land cover datasets for scaling field-measured methane emissions to circumpolar scales has contributed to a large uncertainty for our understanding of present-day and future methane emissions. Here we present the Boreal–Arctic Wetland and Lake Dataset (BAWLD), a land cover dataset based on an expert assessment, extrapolated using random forest modelling from available spatial datasets of climate, topography, soils, permafrost conditions, vegetation, wetlands, and surface water extents and dynamics. In BAWLD, we estimate the fractional coverage of five wetland, seven lake, and three river classes within 0.5 × 0.5∘ grid cells that cover the northern boreal and tundra biomes (17 % of the global land surface). Land cover classes were defined using criteria that ensured distinct methane emissions among classes, as indicated by a co-developed comprehensive dataset of methane flux observations. In BAWLD, wetlands occupied 3.2 × 106 km2 (14 % of domain) with a 95 % confidence interval between 2.8 and 3.8 × 106 km2. Bog, fen, and permafrost bog were the most abundant wetland classes, covering ∼ 28 % each of the total wetland area, while the highest-methane-emitting marsh and tundra wetland classes occupied 5 % and 12 %, respectively. Lakes, defined to include all lentic open-water ecosystems regardless of size, covered 1.4 × 106 km2 (6 % of domain). Low-methane-emitting large lakes (>10 km2) and glacial lakes jointly represented 78 % of the total lake area, while high-emitting peatland and yedoma lakes covered 18 % and 4 %, respectively. Small ( km2) glacial, peatland, and yedoma lakes combined covered 17 % of the total lake area but contributed disproportionally to the overall spatial uncertainty in lake area with a 95 % confidence interval between 0.15 and 0.38 × 106 km2. Rivers and streams were estimated to cover 0.12 × 106 km2 (0.5 % of domain), of which 8 % was associated with high-methane-emitting headwaters that drain organic-rich landscapes. Distinct combinations of spatially co-occurring wetland and lake classes were identified across the BAWLD domain, allowing for the mapping of “wetscapes” that have characteristic methane emission magnitudes and sensitivities to climate change at regional scales. With BAWLD, we provide a dataset which avoids double-accounting of wetland, lake, and river extents and which includes confidence intervals for each land cover class. As such, BAWLD will be suitable for many hydrological and biogeochemical modelling and upscaling efforts for the northern boreal and arctic region, in particular those aimed at improving assessments of current and future methane emissions. Data are freely available at https://doi.org/10.18739/A2C824F9X (Olefeldt et al., 2021).

Methane (CH4) emissions from natural landscapes constitute roughly half of global CH4 contributions to the atmosphere, yet large uncertainties remain in the absolute magnitude and the seasonality of emission quantities and drivers. Eddy covariance (EC) measurements of CH4 flux are ideal for constraining ecosystem-scale CH4 emissions due to quasi-continuous and high-temporal-resolution CH4 flux measurements, coincident carbon dioxide, water, and energy flux measurements, lack of ecosystem disturbance, and increased availability of datasets over the last decade. Here, we (1) describe the newly published dataset, FLUXNET-CH4 Version 1.0, the first open-source global dataset of CH4 EC measurements (available at https://fluxnet.org/data/fluxnet-ch4-community-product/, last access: 7 April 2021). FLUXNET-CH4 includes half-hourly and daily gap-filled and non-gap-filled aggregated CH4 fluxes and meteorological data from 79 sites globally: 42 freshwater wetlands, 6 brackish and saline wetlands, 7 formerly drained ecosystems, 7 rice paddy sites, 2 lakes, and 15 uplands. Then, we (2) evaluate FLUXNET-CH4 representativeness for freshwater wetland coverage globally because the majority of sites in FLUXNET-CH4 Version 1.0 are freshwater wetlands which are a substantial source of total atmospheric CH4 emissions; and (3) we provide the first global estimates of the seasonal variability and seasonality predictors of freshwater wetland CH4 fluxes. Our representativeness analysis suggests that the freshwater wetland sites in the dataset cover global wetland bioclimatic attributes (encompassing energy, moisture, and vegetation-related parameters) in arctic, boreal, and temperate regions but only sparsely cover humid tropical regions. Seasonality metrics of wetland CH4 emissions vary considerably across latitudinal bands. In freshwater wetlands (except those between 20∘ S to 20∘ N) the spring onset of elevated CH4 emissions starts 3 d earlier, and the CH4 emission season lasts 4 d longer, for each degree Celsius increase in mean annual air temperature. On average, the spring onset of increasing CH4 emissions lags behind soil warming by 1 month, with very few sites experiencing increased CH4 emissions prior to the onset of soil warming. In contrast, roughly half of these sites experience the spring onset of rising CH4 emissions prior to the spring increase in gross primary productivity (GPP). The timing of peak summer CH4 emissions does not correlate with the timing for either peak summer temperature or peak GPP. Our results provide seasonality parameters for CH4 modeling and highlight seasonality metrics that cannot be predicted by temperature or GPP (i.e., seasonality of CH4 peak). FLUXNET-CH4 is a powerful new resource for diagnosing and understanding the role of terrestrial ecosystems and climate drivers in the global CH4 cycle, and future additions of sites in tropical ecosystems and site years of data collection will provide added value to this database. All seasonality parameters are available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4672601 (Delwiche et al., 2021). Additionally, raw FLUXNET-CH4 data used to extract seasonality parameters can be downloaded from https://fluxnet.org/data/fluxnet-ch4-community-product/ (last access: 7 April 2021), and a complete list of the 79 individual site data DOIs is provided in Table 2 of this paper.

Vegetation optical depth (VOD) retrieved from microwave radiometry correlates with the total amount of water in vegetation, based on theoretical and empirical evidence. Because the total amount of water in vegetation varies with relative water content (as well as with biomass), this correlation further suggests a possible relationship between VOD and plant water potential, a quantity that drives plant hydraulic behavior. Previous studies have found evidence for that relationship on the scale of satellite pixels tens of kilometers across, but these comparisons suffer from significant scaling error. Here we used small-scale remote sensing to test the link between remotely sensed VOD and plant water potential. We placed an L-band radiometer on a tower above the canopy looking down at red oak forest stand during the 2019 growing season in central Massachusetts, United States. We measured stem xylem and leaf water potentials of trees within the stand and retrieved VOD with a single-channel algorithm based on continuous radiometer measurements and measured soil moisture. VOD exhibited a diurnal cycle similar to that of leaf and stem water potential, with a peak at approximately 05:00 eastern daylight time (UTC−4). VOD was also positively correlated with both the measured dielectric constant and water potentials of stem xylem over the growing season. The presence of moisture on the leaves did not affect the observed relationship between VOD and stem water potential. We used our observed VOD–water-potential relationship to estimate stand-level values for a radiative transfer parameter and a plant hydraulic parameter, which compared well with the published literature. Our findings support the use of VOD for plant hydraulic studies in temperate forests.

Natural wetlands constitute the largest and most uncertain source of methane (CH4) to the atmosphere and a large fraction of them are found in the northern latitudes. These emissions are typically estimated using process (“bottom-up”) or inversion (“top-down”) models. However, estimates from these two types of models are not independent of each other since the top-down estimates usually rely on the a priori estimation of these emissions obtained with process models. Hence, independent spatially explicit validation data are needed. Here we utilize a random forest (RF) machine-learning technique to upscale CH4 eddy covariance flux measurements from 25 sites to estimate CH4 wetland emissions from the northern latitudes (north of 45∘ N). Eddy covariance data from 2005 to 2016 are used for model development. The model is then used to predict emissions during 2013 and 2014. The predictive performance of the RF model is evaluated using a leave-one-site-out cross-validation scheme. The performance (Nash–Sutcliffe model efficiency =0.47) is comparable to previous studies upscaling net ecosystem exchange of carbon dioxide and studies comparing process model output against site-level CH4 emission data. The global distribution of wetlands is one major source of uncertainty for upscaling CH4. Thus, three wetland distribution maps are utilized in the upscaling. Depending on the wetland distribution map, the annual emissions for the northern wetlands yield 32 (22.3–41.2, 95 % confidence interval calculated from a RF model ensemble), 31 (21.4–39.9) or 38 (25.9–49.5) Tg(CH4) yr−1. To further evaluate the uncertainties of the upscaled CH4 flux data products we also compared them against output from two process models (LPX-Bern and WetCHARTs), and methodological issues related to CH4 flux upscaling are discussed. The monthly upscaled CH4 flux data products are available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.2560163 (Peltola et al., 2019).

Scotty Creek, Northwest Territories (NWT), Canada, has been the focus of hydrological research for nearly three decades. Over this period, field and modelling studies have generated new insights into the thermal and physical mechanisms governing the flux and storage of water in the wetland-dominated regions of discontinuous permafrost that characterises much of the Canadian and circumpolar subarctic. Research at Scotty Creek has coincided with a period of unprecedented climate warming, permafrost thaw, and resulting land cover transformations including the expansion of wetland areas and loss of forests. This paper (1) synthesises field and modelling studies at Scotty Creek, (2) highlights the key insights of these studies on the major water flux and storage processes operating within and between the major land cover types, and (3) provides insights into the rate and pattern of the permafrost-thaw-induced land cover change and how such changes will affect the hydrology and water resources of the study region.

Soils in Arctic and boreal ecosystems store twice as much carbon as the atmosphere, a portion of which may be released as high-latitude soils warm. Some of the uncertainty in the timing and magnitude of the permafrost–climate feedback stems from complex interactions between ecosystem properties and soil thermal dynamics. Terrestrial ecosystems fundamentally regulate the response of permafrost to climate change by influencing surface energy partitioning and the thermal properties of soil itself. Here we review how Arctic and boreal ecosystem processes influence thermal dynamics in permafrost soil and how these linkages may evolve in response to climate change. While many of the ecosystem characteristics and processes affecting soil thermal dynamics have been examined individually (e.g., vegetation, soil moisture, and soil structure), interactions among these processes are less understood. Changes in ecosystem type and vegetation characteristics will alter spatial patterns of interactions between climate and permafrost. In addition to shrub expansion, other vegetation responses to changes in climate and rapidly changing disturbance regimes will affect ecosystem surface energy partitioning in ways that are important for permafrost. Lastly, changes in vegetation and ecosystem distribution will lead to regional and global biophysical and biogeochemical climate feedbacks that may compound or offset local impacts on permafrost soils. Consequently, accurate prediction of the permafrost carbon climate feedback will require detailed understanding of changes in terrestrial ecosystem distribution and function, which depend on the net effects of multiple feedback processes operating across scales in space and time.

Decoupling the integrated microwave signal originating from soil and vegetation remains a challenge for all microwave remote sensing applications. To improve satellite and airborne microwave data products in forest environments, a precise and reliable estimation of the relative permittivity (ε = ε′ − iε′′) of trees is required. We developed an open-ended coaxial probe suitable for in situ permittivity measurements of tree trunks at L-band frequencies (1–2 GHz). The probe is characterized by uncertainty ratios under 3.3 % for a broad range of relative permittivities (unitless), [2–40] for ε′ and [0.1–20] for ε′′. We quantified the complex number describing the permittivity of seven different tree species in both frozen and thawed states: black spruce, larch, red spruce, balsam fir, red pine, aspen and black cherry. Permittivity variability is substantial and can range up to 300 % for certain species. Our results show that the permittivity of wood is linked to the freeze–thaw state of vegetation and that even short winter thaw events can lead to an increase in vegetation permittivity. The open-ended coaxial probe proved to be precise enough to capture the diurnal cycle of water storage inside the trunk for the length of the growing season.

Phenology is the study of periodic biological occurrences and can provide important insights into the influence of climatic variability and change on ecosystems. Understanding Australia's vegetation phenology is a challenge due to its diverse range of ecosystems, from savannas and tropical rainforests to temperate eucalypt woodlands, semi-arid scrublands, and alpine grasslands. These ecosystems exhibit marked differences in seasonal patterns of canopy development and plant life-cycle events, much of which deviates from the predictable seasonal phenological pulse of temperate deciduous and boreal biomes. Many Australian ecosystems are subject to irregular events (i.e. drought, flooding, cyclones, and fire) that can alter ecosystem composition, structure, and functioning just as much as seasonal change. We show how satellite remote sensing and ground-based digital repeat photography (i.e. phenocams) can be used to improve understanding of phenology in Australian ecosystems. First, we examine temporal variation in phenology on the continental scale using the enhanced vegetation index (EVI), calculated from MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data. Spatial gradients are revealed, ranging from regions with pronounced seasonality in canopy development (i.e. tropical savannas) to regions where seasonal variation is minimal (i.e. tropical rainforests) or high but irregular (i.e. arid ecosystems). Next, we use time series colour information extracted from phenocam imagery to illustrate a range of phenological signals in four contrasting Australian ecosystems. These include greening and senescing events in tropical savannas and temperate eucalypt understorey, as well as strong seasonal dynamics of individual trees in a seemingly static evergreen rainforest. We also demonstrate how phenology links with ecosystem gross primary productivity (from eddy covariance) and discuss why these processes are linked in some ecosystems but not others. We conclude that phenocams have the potential to greatly improve the current understanding of Australian ecosystems. To facilitate the sharing of this information, we have formed the Australian Phenocam Network (http://phenocam.org.au/).

Measurements of hyperspectral canopy reflectance provide a detailed snapshot of information regarding canopy biochemistry, structure and physiology. In this study, we collected 5 years of repeated canopy hyperspectral reflectance measurements for a total of over 100 site visits within the flux footprints of two eddy covariance towers at a pasture and rice paddy in northern California. The vegetation at both sites exhibited dynamic phenology, with significant interannual variability in the timing of seasonal patterns that propagated into interannual variability in measured hyperspectral reflectance. We used partial least-squares regression (PLSR) modeling to leverage the information contained within the entire canopy reflectance spectra (400–900 nm) in order to investigate questions regarding the connection between measured hyperspectral reflectance and landscape-scale fluxes of net ecosystem exchange (NEE) and gross primary productivity (GPP) across multiple timescales, from instantaneous flux to monthly integrated flux. With the PLSR models developed from this large data set we achieved a high level of predictability for both NEE and GPP flux in these two ecosystems, where the R2 of prediction with an independent validation data set ranged from 0.24 to 0.69. The PLSR models achieved the highest skill at predicting the integrated GPP flux for the week prior to the hyperspectral canopy reflectance collection, whereas the NEE flux often achieved the same high predictive power at daily to monthly integrated flux timescales. The high level of predictability achieved by PLSR in this study demonstrated the potential for using repeated hyperspectral canopy reflectance measurements to help partition NEE into its component fluxes, GPP and ecosystem respiration, and for using quasi-continuous hyperspectral reflectance measurements to model regional carbon flux in future analyses.

Plant phenology regulates ecosystem services at local and global scales and is a sensitive indicator of global change. Estimates of phenophase transition dates, such as the start of spring or end of fall, can be derived from sensor-based time series, but must be interpreted in terms of biologically relevant events. We use the PhenoCam archive of digital repeat photography to implement a consistent protocol for visual assessment of canopy phenology at 13 temperate deciduous forest sites throughout eastern North America, and to perform digital image analysis for time-series-based estimation of phenophase transition dates. We then compare these results to remote sensing metrics of phenophase transition dates derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) sensors. We present a new type of curve fit that uses a generalized sigmoid function to estimate phenology dates, and we quantify the statistical uncertainty of phenophase transition dates estimated using this method. Results show that the generalized sigmoid provides estimates of dates with less statistical uncertainty than other curve-fitting methods. Additionally, we find that dates derived from analysis of high-frequency PhenoCam imagery have smaller uncertainties than satellite remote sensing metrics of phenology, and that dates derived from the remotely sensed enhanced vegetation index (EVI) have smaller uncertainty than those derived from the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). Near-surface time-series estimates for the start of spring are found to closely match estimates derived from visual assessment of leaf-out, as well as satellite remote-sensing-derived estimates of the start of spring. However late spring and fall phenology metrics exhibit larger differences between near-surface and remote scales. Differences in late spring phenology between near-surface and remote scales are found to correlate with a landscape metric of deciduous forest cover. These results quantify the effect of landscape heterogeneity when aggregating to the coarser spatial scales of remote sensing, and demonstrate the importance of accurate curve fitting and vegetation index selection when analyzing and interpreting phenology time series.

Phenology, the timing of recurring life cycle events, controls numerous land surface feedbacks to the climate system through the regulation of exchanges of carbon, water and energy between the biosphere and atmosphere. Terrestrial biosphere models, however, are known to have systematic errors in the simulation of spring phenology, which potentially could propagate to uncertainty in modeled responses to future climate change. Here, we used the Harvard Forest phenology record to investigate and characterize sources of uncertainty in predicting phenology, and the subsequent impacts on model forecasts of carbon and water cycling. Using a model-data fusion approach, we combined information from 20 yr of phenological observations of 11 North American woody species, with 12 leaf bud-burst models that varied in complexity. Akaike's Information Criterion indicated support for spring warming models with photoperiod limitations and, to a lesser extent, models that included chilling requirements. We assessed three different sources of uncertainty in phenological forecasts: parameter uncertainty, model uncertainty, and driver uncertainty. The latter was characterized running the models to 2099 using 2 different IPCC climate scenarios (A1fi vs. B1, i.e. high CO2 emissions vs. low CO2 emissions scenario). Parameter uncertainty was the smallest (average 95% Confidence Interval – CI: 2.4 days century−1 for scenario B1 and 4.5 days century−1 for A1fi), whereas driver uncertainty was the largest (up to 8.4 days century−1 in the simulated trends). The uncertainty related to model structure is also large and the predicted bud-burst trends as well as the shape of the smoothed projections varied among models (±7.7 days century−1 for A1fi, ±3.6 days century−1 for B1). The forecast sensitivity of bud-burst to temperature (i.e. days bud-burst advanced per degree of warming) varied between 2.2 days °C−1 and 5.2 days °C−1 depending on model structure. We quantified the impact of uncertainties in bud-burst forecasts on simulated photosynthetic CO2 uptake and evapotranspiration (ET) using a process-based terrestrial biosphere model. Uncertainty in phenology model structure led to uncertainty in the description of forest seasonality, which accumulated to uncertainty in annual model estimates of gross primary productivity (GPP) and ET of 9.6% and 2.9%, respectively. A sensitivity analysis shows that a variation of ±10 days in bud-burst dates led to a variation of ±5.0% for annual GPP and about ±2.0% for ET. For phenology models, differences among future climate scenarios (i.e. driver) represent the largest source of uncertainty, followed by uncertainties related to model structure, and finally, related to model parameterization. The uncertainties we have quantified will affect the description of the seasonality of ecosystem processes and in particular the simulation of carbon uptake by forest ecosystems, with a larger impact of uncertainties related to phenology model structure, followed by uncertainties related to phenological model parameterization.

Across a global network of eddy covariance flux towers, two relatively new open-path infrared gas analyzers (IRGAs), the IRGASON and the EC150, are increasingly used to measure net carbon dioxide (CO2) fluxes (Fc_OP). Differences in net CO2 fluxes derived from open- and closed-path IRGAs in general remain poorly constrained. In particular, the performance of the IRGASON and the EC150 for measuring Fc_OP has not been characterized yet. These IRGAs measure CO2 absorption, which is scaled with air temperature and pressure before converting it to instantaneous CO2 density. This sensor-internal conversion is based on a slow-response thermistor air temperature measurement. Here, we test if the high-frequency temperature attenuation causes selectively systematic Fc_OP errors that scale with kinematic temperature fluxes. First, we examine the relationship between wintertime Fc_OP and kinematic temperature fluxes for eight northern ecosystems. Second, we investigate how residuals between Fc_OP and CO2 fluxes from co-located closed-path IRGAs (FC_CP) are related to kinematic temperature fluxes for three different ecosystem types (i.e., boreal forest, grassland, and irrigated cropland). We find that kinematic temperature fluxes, but not mean ambient air temperatures or CO2 flux regime, consistently determine the absolute magnitude of Fc_OP errors. This selectively systematic bias causes the most pronounced relative Fc_OP errors to occur when “true” CO2 fluxes are low and kinematic temperature fluxes are high (e.g., northern ecosystems during the winter). The smallest relative errors occur during periods with large “true” CO2 fluxes and low kinematic temperature fluxes. To address this bias, we replace the slow-response air temperature in the absorption-to-CO2 density conversion with a fast-response air temperature derived from sonic anemometer measurements. The use of the fast-response air temperature improves the agreement between half-hourly Fc_OP and FC_CP for all open- versus closed-path IRGA comparisons. Additionally, cumulative Fc_OP and Fc_CP sums are more comparable as differences drop from 63 %–13 % to 20 %–8 %. The improved IRGASON and EC150 performance enhances the ability and confidence to synthesize flux measurements across multiple sites including these two relatively new IRGAs.

Arctic-boreal landscapes are experiencing profound warming, along with changes in ecosystem moisture status and disturbance from fire. This region is of global importance in terms of carbon feedbacks to climate, yet the sign (sink or source) and magnitude of the Arctic-boreal carbon budget within recent years remains highly uncertain. Here, we provide new estimates of recent (2003-2015) vegetation gross primary productivity (GPP), ecosystem respiration (R eco ), net ecosystem CO 2 exchange (NEE; R eco  - GPP), and terrestrial methane (CH 4 ) emissions for the Arctic-boreal zone using a satellite data-driven process-model for northern ecosystems (TCFM-Arctic), calibrated and evaluated using measurements from >60 tower eddy covariance (EC) sites. We used TCFM-Arctic to obtain daily 1-km 2 flux estimates and annual carbon budgets for the pan-Arctic-boreal region. Across the domain, the model indicated an overall average NEE sink of -850 Tg CO 2 -C year -1 . Eurasian boreal zones, especially those in Siberia, contributed to a majority of the net sink. In contrast, the tundra biome was relatively carbon neutral (ranging from small sink to source). Regional CH 4 emissions from tundra and boreal wetlands (not accounting for aquatic CH 4 ) were estimated at 35 Tg CH 4 -C year -1 . Accounting for additional emissions from open water aquatic bodies and from fire, using available estimates from the literature, reduced the total regional NEE sink by 21% and shifted many far northern tundra landscapes, and some boreal forests, to a net carbon source. This assessment, based on in situ observations and models, improves our understanding of the high-latitude carbon status and also indicates a continued need for integrated site-to-regional assessments to monitor the vulnerability of these ecosystems to climate change., (© 2023 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Wetlands are the largest natural source of methane (CH 4 ) to the atmosphere. The eddy covariance method provides robust measurements of net ecosystem exchange of CH 4 , but interpreting its spatiotemporal variations is challenging due to the co-occurrence of CH 4 production, oxidation, and transport dynamics. Here, we estimate these three processes using a data-model fusion approach across 25 wetlands in temperate, boreal, and Arctic regions. Our data-constrained model-iPEACE-reasonably reproduced CH 4 emissions at 19 of the 25 sites with normalized root mean square error of 0.59, correlation coefficient of 0.82, and normalized standard deviation of 0.87. Among the three processes, CH 4 production appeared to be the most important process, followed by oxidation in explaining inter-site variations in CH 4 emissions. Based on a sensitivity analysis, CH 4 emissions were generally more sensitive to decreased water table than to increased gross primary productivity or soil temperature. For periods with leaf area index (LAI) of ≥20% of its annual peak, plant-mediated transport appeared to be the major pathway for CH 4 transport. Contributions from ebullition and diffusion were relatively high during low LAI (<20%) periods. The lag time between CH 4 production and CH 4 emissions tended to be short in fen sites (3 ± 2 days) and long in bog sites (13 ± 10 days). Based on a principal component analysis, we found that parameters for CH 4 production, plant-mediated transport, and diffusion through water explained 77% of the variance in the parameters across the 19 sites, highlighting the importance of these parameters for predicting wetland CH 4 emissions across biomes. These processes and associated parameters for CH 4 emissions among and within the wetlands provide useful insights for interpreting observed net CH 4 fluxes, estimating sensitivities to biophysical variables, and modeling global CH 4 fluxes., (© 2023 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Long-term atmospheric CO 2 concentration records have suggested a reduction in the positive effect of warming on high-latitude carbon uptake since the 1990s. A variety of mechanisms have been proposed to explain the reduced net carbon sink of northern ecosystems with increased air temperature, including water stress on vegetation and increased respiration over recent decades. However, the lack of consistent long-term carbon flux and in situ soil moisture data has severely limited our ability to identify the mechanisms responsible for the recent reduced carbon sink strength. In this study, we used a record of nearly 100 site-years of eddy covariance data from 11 continuous permafrost tundra sites distributed across the circumpolar Arctic to test the temperature (expressed as growing degree days, GDD) responses of gross primary production (GPP), net ecosystem exchange (NEE), and ecosystem respiration (ER) at different periods of the summer (early, peak, and late summer) including dominant tundra vegetation classes (graminoids and mosses, and shrubs). We further tested GPP, NEE, and ER relationships with soil moisture and vapor pressure deficit to identify potential moisture limitations on plant productivity and net carbon exchange. Our results show a decrease in GPP with rising GDD during the peak summer (July) for both vegetation classes, and a significant relationship between the peak summer GPP and soil moisture after statistically controlling for GDD in a partial correlation analysis. These results suggest that tundra ecosystems might not benefit from increased temperature as much as suggested by several terrestrial biosphere models, if decreased soil moisture limits the peak summer plant productivity, reducing the ability of these ecosystems to sequester carbon during the summer., (© 2022 The Authors. Global Change Biology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Arctic wetlands are known methane (CH 4 ) emitters but recent studies suggest that the Arctic CH 4 sink strength may be underestimated. Here we explore the capacity of well-drained Arctic soils to consume atmospheric CH 4 using >40,000 hourly flux observations and spatially distributed flux measurements from 4 sites and 14 surface types. While consumption of atmospheric CH 4 occurred at all sites at rates of 0.092 ± 0.011 mgCH 4  m -2  h -1 (mean ± s.e.), CH 4 uptake displayed distinct diel and seasonal patterns reflecting ecosystem respiration. Combining in situ flux data with laboratory investigations and a machine learning approach, we find biotic drivers to be highly important. Soil moisture outweighed temperature as an abiotic control and higher CH 4 uptake was linked to increased availability of labile carbon. Our findings imply that soil drying and enhanced nutrient supply will promote CH 4 uptake by Arctic soils, providing a negative feedback to global climate change., Competing Interests: Competing interestsThe authors declare no competing interests., (© The Author(s) 2023.)

Despite the importance of high-latitude surface energy budgets (SEBs) for land-climate interactions in the rapidly changing Arctic, uncertainties in their prediction persist. Here, we harmonize SEB observations across a network of vegetated and glaciated sites at circumpolar scale (1994-2021). Our variance-partitioning analysis identifies vegetation type as an important predictor for SEB-components during Arctic summer (June-August), compared to other SEB-drivers including climate, latitude and permafrost characteristics. Differences among vegetation types can be of similar magnitude as between vegetation and glacier surfaces and are especially high for summer sensible and latent heat fluxes. The timing of SEB-flux summer-regimes (when daily mean values exceed 0 Wm -2 ) relative to snow-free and -onset dates varies substantially depending on vegetation type, implying vegetation controls on snow-cover and SEB-flux seasonality. Our results indicate complex shifts in surface energy fluxes with land-cover transitions and a lengthening summer season, and highlight the potential for improving future Earth system models via a refined representation of Arctic vegetation types., (© 2022. The Author(s).)

At the edge of alpine and Arctic ecosystems all over the world, a transition zone exists beyond which it is either infeasible or unfavorable for trees to exist, colloquially identified as the treeline. We explore the possibility of a thermodynamic basis behind this demarcation in vegetation by considering ecosystems as open systems driven by thermodynamic advantage-defined by vegetation's ability to dissipate heat from the earth's surface to the air above the canopy. To deduce whether forests would be more thermodynamically advantageous than existing ecosystems beyond treelines, we construct and examine counterfactual scenarios in which trees exist beyond a treeline instead of the existing alpine meadow or Arctic tundra. Meteorological data from the Italian Alps, United States Rocky Mountains, and Western Canadian Taiga-Tundra are used as forcing for model computation of ecosystem work and temperature gradients at sites on both sides of each treeline with and without trees. Model results indicate that the alpine sites do not support trees beyond the treeline, as their presence would result in excessive CO[Formula: see text] loss and extended periods of snowpack due to temperature inversions (i.e., positive temperature gradient from the earth surface to the atmosphere). Further, both Arctic and alpine sites exhibit negative work resulting in positive feedback between vegetation heat dissipation and temperature gradient, thereby extending the duration of temperature inversions. These conditions demonstrate thermodynamic infeasibility associated with the counterfactual scenario of trees existing beyond a treeline. Thus, we conclude that, in addition to resource constraints, a treeline is an outcome of an ecosystem's ability to self-organize towards the most advantageous vegetation structure facilitated by thermodynamic feasibility., (© 2022. The Author(s).)

Arctic warming is affecting snow cover and soil hydrology, with consequences for carbon sequestration in tundra ecosystems. The scarcity of observations in the Arctic has limited our understanding of the impact of covarying environmental drivers on the carbon balance of tundra ecosystems. In this study, we address some of these uncertainties through a novel record of 119 site-years of summer data from eddy covariance towers representing dominant tundra vegetation types located on continuous permafrost in the Arctic. Here we found that earlier snowmelt was associated with more tundra net CO 2 sequestration and higher gross primary productivity (GPP) only in June and July, but with lower net carbon sequestration and lower GPP in August. Although higher evapotranspiration (ET) can result in soil drying with the progression of the summer, we did not find significantly lower soil moisture with earlier snowmelt, nor evidence that water stress affected GPP in the late growing season. Our results suggest that the expected increased CO 2 sequestration arising from Arctic warming and the associated increase in growing season length may not materialize if tundra ecosystems are not able to continue sequestering CO 2 later in the season., (© 2022. The Author(s).)

The regional variability in tundra and boreal carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) fluxes can be high, complicating efforts to quantify sink-source patterns across the entire region. Statistical models are increasingly used to predict (i.e., upscale) CO 2 fluxes across large spatial domains, but the reliability of different modeling techniques, each with different specifications and assumptions, has not been assessed in detail. Here, we compile eddy covariance and chamber measurements of annual and growing season CO 2 fluxes of gross primary productivity (GPP), ecosystem respiration (ER), and net ecosystem exchange (NEE) during 1990-2015 from 148 terrestrial high-latitude (i.e., tundra and boreal) sites to analyze the spatial patterns and drivers of CO 2 fluxes and test the accuracy and uncertainty of different statistical models. CO 2 fluxes were upscaled at relatively high spatial resolution (1 km 2 ) across the high-latitude region using five commonly used statistical models and their ensemble, that is, the median of all five models, using climatic, vegetation, and soil predictors. We found the performance of machine learning and ensemble predictions to outperform traditional regression methods. We also found the predictive performance of NEE-focused models to be low, relative to models predicting GPP and ER. Our data compilation and ensemble predictions showed that CO 2 sink strength was larger in the boreal biome (observed and predicted average annual NEE -46 and -29 g C m -2  yr -1 , respectively) compared to tundra (average annual NEE +10 and -2 g C m -2  yr -1 ). This pattern was associated with large spatial variability, reflecting local heterogeneity in soil organic carbon stocks, climate, and vegetation productivity. The terrestrial ecosystem CO 2 budget, estimated using the annual NEE ensemble prediction, suggests the high-latitude region was on average an annual CO 2 sink during 1990-2015, although uncertainty remains high., (© 2021 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

While wetlands are the largest natural source of methane (CH 4 ) to the atmosphere, they represent a large source of uncertainty in the global CH 4 budget due to the complex biogeochemical controls on CH 4 dynamics. Here we present, to our knowledge, the first multi-site synthesis of how predictors of CH 4 fluxes (FCH4) in freshwater wetlands vary across wetland types at diel, multiday (synoptic), and seasonal time scales. We used several statistical approaches (correlation analysis, generalized additive modeling, mutual information, and random forests) in a wavelet-based multi-resolution framework to assess the importance of environmental predictors, nonlinearities and lags on FCH4 across 23 eddy covariance sites. Seasonally, soil and air temperature were dominant predictors of FCH4 at sites with smaller seasonal variation in water table depth (WTD). In contrast, WTD was the dominant predictor for wetlands with smaller variations in temperature (e.g., seasonal tropical/subtropical wetlands). Changes in seasonal FCH4 lagged fluctuations in WTD by ~17 ± 11 days, and lagged air and soil temperature by median values of 8 ± 16 and 5 ± 15 days, respectively. Temperature and WTD were also dominant predictors at the multiday scale. Atmospheric pressure (PA) was another important multiday scale predictor for peat-dominated sites, with drops in PA coinciding with synchronous releases of CH 4 . At the diel scale, synchronous relationships with latent heat flux and vapor pressure deficit suggest that physical processes controlling evaporation and boundary layer mixing exert similar controls on CH 4 volatilization, and suggest the influence of pressurized ventilation in aerenchymatous vegetation. In addition, 1- to 4-h lagged relationships with ecosystem photosynthesis indicate recent carbon substrates, such as root exudates, may also control FCH4. By addressing issues of scale, asynchrony, and nonlinearity, this work improves understanding of the predictors and timing of wetland FCH4 that can inform future studies and models, and help constrain wetland CH 4 emissions., (© 2021 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

The high northern latitudes (>50°) experienced a pronounced surface stilling (i.e., decline in winds) with climate change. As a drying factor, the influences of changes in winds on the date of autumn foliar senescence (DFS) remain largely unknown and are potentially important as a mechanism explaining the interannual variability of autumn phenology. Using 183,448 phenological observations at 2,405 sites, long-term site-scale water vapor and carbon dioxide flux measurements, and 34 y of satellite greenness data, here we show that the decline in winds is significantly associated with extended DFS and could have a relative importance comparable with temperature and precipitation effects in contributing to the DFS trends. We further demonstrate that decline in winds reduces evapotranspiration, which results in less soil water losses and consequently more favorable growth conditions in late autumn. In addition, declining winds also lead to less leaf abscission damage which could delay leaf senescence and to a decreased cooling effect and therefore less frost damage. Our results are potentially useful for carbon flux modeling because an improved algorithm based on these findings projected overall widespread earlier DFS than currently expected by the end of this century, contributing potentially to a positive feedback to climate., Competing Interests: The authors declare no competing interest., (Copyright © 2021 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.)

Wetland methane (CH 4 ) emissions ([Formula: see text]) are important in global carbon budgets and climate change assessments. Currently, [Formula: see text] projections rely on prescribed static temperature sensitivity that varies among biogeochemical models. Meta-analyses have proposed a consistent [Formula: see text] temperature dependence across spatial scales for use in models; however, site-level studies demonstrate that [Formula: see text] are often controlled by factors beyond temperature. Here, we evaluate the relationship between [Formula: see text] and temperature using observations from the FLUXNET-CH 4 database. Measurements collected across the globe show substantial seasonal hysteresis between [Formula: see text] and temperature, suggesting larger [Formula: see text] sensitivity to temperature later in the frost-free season (about 77% of site-years). Results derived from a machine-learning model and several regression models highlight the importance of representing the large spatial and temporal variability within site-years and ecosystem types. Mechanistic advancements in biogeochemical model parameterization and detailed measurements in factors modulating CH 4 production are thus needed to improve global CH 4 budget assessments.

Arctic and boreal ecosystems play an important role in the global carbon (C) budget, and whether they act as a future net C sink or source depends on climate and environmental change. Here, we used complementary in situ measurements, model simulations, and satellite observations to investigate the net carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) seasonal cycle and its climatic and environmental controls across Alaska and northwestern Canada during the anomalously warm winter to spring conditions of 2015 and 2016 (relative to 2010-2014). In the warm spring, we found that photosynthesis was enhanced more than respiration, leading to greater CO 2 uptake. However, photosynthetic enhancement from spring warming was partially offset by greater ecosystem respiration during the preceding anomalously warm winter, resulting in nearly neutral effects on the annual net CO 2 balance. Eddy covariance CO 2 flux measurements showed that air temperature has a primary influence on net CO 2 exchange in winter and spring, while soil moisture has a primary control on net CO 2 exchange in the fall. The net CO 2 exchange was generally more moisture limited in the boreal region than in the Arctic tundra. Our analysis indicates complex seasonal interactions of underlying C cycle processes in response to changing climate and hydrology that may not manifest in changes in net annual CO 2 exchange. Therefore, a better understanding of the seasonal response of C cycle processes may provide important insights for predicting future carbon-climate feedbacks and their consequences on atmospheric CO 2 dynamics in the northern high latitudes., (© 2019 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

The role of plant phenology as a regulator for gross ecosystem productivity (GEP) in peatlands is empirically not well constrained. This is because proxies to track vegetation development with daily coverage at the ecosystem scale have only recently become available and the lack of such data has hampered the disentangling of biotic and abiotic effects. This study aimed at unraveling the mechanisms that regulate the seasonal variation in GEP across a network of eight European peatlands. Therefore, we described phenology with canopy greenness derived from digital repeat photography and disentangled the effects of radiation, temperature and phenology on GEP with commonality analysis and structural equation modeling. The resulting relational network could not only delineate direct effects but also accounted for possible effect combinations such as interdependencies (mediation) and interactions (moderation). We found that peatland GEP was controlled by the same mechanisms across all sites: phenology constituted a key predictor for the seasonal variation in GEP and further acted as a distinct mediator for temperature and radiation effects on GEP. In particular, the effect of air temperature on GEP was fully mediated through phenology, implying that direct temperature effects representing the thermoregulation of photosynthesis were negligible. The tight coupling between temperature, phenology and GEP applied especially to high latitude and high altitude peatlands and during phenological transition phases. Our study highlights the importance of phenological effects when evaluating the future response of peatland GEP to climate change. Climate change will affect peatland GEP especially through changing temperature patterns during plant phenologically sensitive phases in high latitude and high altitude regions., (© 2019 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

A multitude of disturbance agents, such as wildfires, land use, and climate-driven expansion of woody shrubs, is transforming the distribution of plant functional types across Arctic-Boreal ecosystems, which has significant implications for interactions and feedbacks between terrestrial ecosystems and climate in the northern high-latitude. However, because the spatial resolution of existing land cover datasets is too coarse, large-scale land cover changes in the Arctic-Boreal region (ABR) have been poorly characterized. Here, we use 31 years (1984-2014) of moderate spatial resolution (30 m) satellite imagery over a region spanning 4.7 × 10 6  km 2 in Alaska and northwestern Canada to characterize regional-scale ABR land cover changes. We find that 13.6 ± 1.3% of the domain has changed, primarily via two major modes of transformation: (a) simultaneous disturbance-driven decreases in Evergreen Forest area (-14.7 ± 3.0% relative to 1984) and increases in Deciduous Forest area (+14.8 ± 5.2%) in the Boreal biome; and (b) climate-driven expansion of Herbaceous and Shrub vegetation (+7.4 ± 2.0%) in the Arctic biome. By using time series of 30 m imagery, we characterize dynamics in forest and shrub cover occurring at relatively short spatial scales (hundreds of meters) due to fires, harvest, and climate-induced growth that are not observable in coarse spatial resolution (e.g., 500 m or greater pixel size) imagery. Wildfires caused most of Evergreen Forest Loss and Evergreen Forest Gain and substantial areas of Deciduous Forest Gain. Extensive shifts in the distribution of plant functional types at multiple spatial scales are consistent with observations of increased atmospheric CO 2 seasonality and ecosystem productivity at northern high-latitudes and signal continental-scale shifts in the structure and function of northern high-latitude ecosystems in response to climate change., (© 2019 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Recent warming in the Arctic, which has been amplified during the winter 1-3 , greatly enhances microbial decomposition of soil organic matter and subsequent release of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) 4 . However, the amount of CO 2 released in winter is highly uncertain and has not been well represented by ecosystem models or by empirically-based estimates 5,6 . Here we synthesize regional in situ observations of CO 2 flux from arctic and boreal soils to assess current and future winter carbon losses from the northern permafrost domain. We estimate a contemporary loss of 1662 Tg C yr -1 from the permafrost region during the winter season (October through April). This loss is greater than the average growing season carbon uptake for this region estimated from process models (-1032 Tg C yr -1 ). Extending model predictions to warmer conditions in 2100 indicates that winter CO 2 emissions will increase 17% under a moderate mitigation scenario-Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5-and 41% under business-as-usual emissions scenario-RCP 8.5. Our results provide a new baseline for winter CO 2 emissions from northern terrestrial regions and indicate that enhanced soil CO 2 loss due to winter warming may offset growing season carbon uptake under future climatic conditions.

Trees play a key role in the global hydrological cycle and measurements performed with the thermal dissipation method (TDM) have been crucial in providing whole-tree water-use estimates. Yet, different data processing to calculate whole-tree water use encapsulates uncertainties that have not been systematically assessed. We quantified uncertainties in conifer sap flux density (F d ) and stand water use caused by commonly applied methods for deriving zero-flow conditions, dampening and sensor calibration. Their contribution has been assessed using a stem segment calibration experiment and 4 yr of TDM measurements in Picea abies and Larix decidua growing in contrasting environments. Uncertainties were then projected on TDM data from different conifers across the northern hemisphere. Commonly applied methods mostly underestimated absolute F d . Lacking a site- and species-specific calibrations reduced our stand water-use measurements by 37% and induced uncertainty in northern hemisphere F d . Additionally, although the interdaily variability was maintained, disregarding dampening and/or applying zero-flow conditions that ignored night-time water use reduced the correlation between environment and F d . The presented ensemble of calibration curves and proposed dampening correction, together with the systematic quantification of data-processing uncertainties, provide crucial steps in improving whole-tree water-use estimates across spatial and temporal scales., (© 2018 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2018 New Phytologist Trust.)

Water stress has been identified as a key mechanism of the contemporary increase in tree mortality rates in northwestern North America. However, a detailed analysis of boreal tree hydrodynamics and their interspecific differences is still lacking. Here we examine the hydraulic behaviour of co-occurring larch (Larix laricina) and black spruce (Picea mariana), two characteristic boreal tree species, near the southern limit of the boreal ecozone in central Canada. Sap flux density (Js), concurrently recorded stem radius fluctuations and meteorological conditions are used to quantify tree hydraulic functioning and to scrutinize tree water-use strategies. Our analysis revealed asynchrony in the diel hydrodynamics of the two species with the initial rise in Js occurring 2 h earlier in larch than in black spruce. Interspecific differences in larch and black spruce crown architecture explained the observed asynchrony in their hydraulic functioning. Furthermore, the two species exhibited diverging stomatal regulation strategies with larch and black spruce employing relatively isohydric and anisohydric behaviour, respectively. Such asynchronous and diverging tree-level hydrodynamics provide new insights into the ecosystem-level complementarity in tree form and function, with implications for understanding boreal forests' water and carbon dynamics and their resilience to environmental stress.

Gross primary production (GPP) is a key driver of the peatland carbon cycle. Although many studies have explored the apparent GPP under natural light conditions, knowledge of the maximum GPP at light-saturation (GPP max ) and its spatio-temporal variation is limited. This information, however, is crucial since GPP max essentially constrains the upper boundary for apparent GPP. Using chamber measurements combined with an external light source across experimental plots where vegetation composition was altered through long-term (20-year) nitrogen addition and artificial warming, we could quantify GPP max in-situ and disentangle its biotic and abiotic controls in a boreal peatland. We found large spatial and temporal variations in the magnitudes of GPP max which were related to vegetation species composition and phenology rather than abiotic factors. Specifically, we identified vegetation phenology as the main driver of the seasonal GPP max trajectory. Abiotic anomalies (i.e. in air temperature and water table level), however, caused species-specific divergence between the trajectories of GPP max and plant development. Our study demonstrates that photosynthetically active biomass constrains the potential peatland photosynthesis while abiotic factors act as secondary modifiers. This further calls for a better representation of species-specific vegetation phenology in process-based peatland models to improve predictions of global change impacts on the peatland carbon cycle.

In the sporadic permafrost zone of northwestern Canada, boreal forest carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) fluxes will be altered directly by climate change through changing meteorological forcing and indirectly through changes in landscape functioning associated with thaw-induced collapse-scar bog ('wetland') expansion. However, their combined effect on landscape-scale net ecosystem CO 2 exchange (NEE LAND ), resulting from changing gross primary productivity (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (ER), remains unknown. Here, we quantify indirect land cover change impacts on NEE LAND and direct climate change impacts on modeled temperature- and light-limited NEE LAND of a boreal forest-wetland landscape. Using nested eddy covariance flux towers, we find both GPP and ER to be larger at the landscape compared to the wetland level. However, annual NEE LAND (-20 g C m -2 ) and wetland NEE (-24 g C m -2 ) were similar, suggesting negligible wetland expansion effects on NEE LAND . In contrast, we find non-negligible direct climate change impacts when modeling NEE LAND using projected air temperature and incoming shortwave radiation. At the end of the 21st century, modeled GPP mainly increases in spring and fall due to reduced temperature limitation, but becomes more frequently light-limited in fall. In a warmer climate, ER increases year-round in the absence of moisture stress resulting in net CO 2 uptake increases in the shoulder seasons and decreases during the summer. Annually, landscape net CO 2 uptake is projected to decline by 25 ± 14 g C m -2 for a moderate and 103 ± 38 g C m -2 for a high warming scenario, potentially reversing recently observed positive net CO 2 uptake trends across the boreal biome. Thus, even without moisture stress, net CO 2 uptake of boreal forest-wetland landscapes may decline, and ultimately, these landscapes may turn into net CO 2 sources under continued anthropogenic CO 2 emissions. We conclude that NEE LAND changes are more likely to be driven by direct climate change rather than by indirect land cover change impacts., (© 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

At the southern margin of permafrost in North America, climate change causes widespread permafrost thaw. In boreal lowlands, thawing forested permafrost peat plateaus ('forest') lead to expansion of permafrost-free wetlands ('wetland'). Expanding wetland area with saturated and warmer organic soils is expected to increase landscape methane (CH 4 ) emissions. Here, we quantify the thaw-induced increase in CH 4 emissions for a boreal forest-wetland landscape in the southern Taiga Plains, Canada, and evaluate its impact on net radiative forcing relative to potential long-term net carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) exchange. Using nested wetland and landscape eddy covariance net CH 4 flux measurements in combination with flux footprint modeling, we find that landscape CH 4 emissions increase with increasing wetland-to-forest ratio. Landscape CH 4 emissions are most sensitive to this ratio during peak emission periods, when wetland soils are up to 10 °C warmer than forest soils. The cumulative growing season (May-October) wetland CH 4 emission of ~13 g CH 4  m -2 is the dominating contribution to the landscape CH 4 emission of ~7 g CH 4  m -2 . In contrast, forest contributions to landscape CH 4 emissions appear to be negligible. The rapid wetland expansion of 0.26 ± 0.05% yr -1 in this region causes an estimated growing season increase of 0.034 ± 0.007 g CH 4  m -2  yr -1 in landscape CH 4 emissions. A long-term net CO 2 uptake of >200 g CO 2  m -2  yr -1 is required to offset the positive radiative forcing of increasing CH 4 emissions until the end of the 21st century as indicated by an atmospheric CH 4 and CO 2 concentration model. However, long-term apparent carbon accumulation rates in similar boreal forest-wetland landscapes and eddy covariance landscape net CO 2 flux measurements suggest a long-term net CO 2 uptake between 49 and 157 g CO 2  m -2  yr -1 . Thus, thaw-induced CH 4 emission increases likely exert a positive net radiative greenhouse gas forcing through the 21st century., (© 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

In the sporadic permafrost zone of North America, thaw-induced boreal forest loss is leading to permafrost-free wetland expansion. These land cover changes alter landscape-scale surface properties with potentially large, however, still unknown impacts on regional climates. In this study, we combine nested eddy covariance flux tower measurements with satellite remote sensing to characterize the impacts of boreal forest loss on albedo, eco-physiological and aerodynamic surface properties, and turbulent energy fluxes of a lowland boreal forest region in the Northwest Territories, Canada. Planetary boundary layer modelling is used to estimate the potential forest loss impact on regional air temperature and atmospheric moisture. We show that thaw-induced conversion of forests to wetlands increases albedo: and bulk surface conductance for water vapour and decreases aerodynamic surface temperature. At the same time, heat transfer efficiency is reduced. These shifts in land surface properties increase latent at the expense of sensible heat fluxes, thus, drastically reducing Bowen ratios. Due to the lower albedo of forests and their masking effect of highly reflective snow, available energy is lower in wetlands, especially in late winter. Modelling results demonstrate that a conversion of a present-day boreal forest-wetland to a hypothetical homogeneous wetland landscape could induce a near-surface cooling effect on regional air temperatures of up to 3-4 °C in late winter and 1-2 °C in summer. An atmospheric wetting effect in summer is indicated by a maximum increase in water vapour mixing ratios of 2 mmol mol -1 . At the same time, maximum boundary layer heights are reduced by about a third of the original height. In fall, simulated air temperature and atmospheric moisture between the two scenarios do not differ. Therefore, permafrost thaw-induced boreal forest loss may modify regional precipitation patterns and slow down regional warming trends., (© 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

The proliferation of digital cameras co-located with eddy covariance instrumentation provides new opportunities to better understand the relationship between canopy phenology and the seasonality of canopy photosynthesis. In this paper we analyze the abilities and limitations of canopy color metrics measured by digital repeat photography to track seasonal canopy development and photosynthesis, determine phenological transition dates, and estimate intra-annual and interannual variability in canopy photosynthesis. We used 59 site-years of camera imagery and net ecosystem exchange measurements from 17 towers spanning three plant functional types (deciduous broadleaf forest, evergreen needleleaf forest, and grassland/crops) to derive color indices and estimate gross primary productivity (GPP). GPP was strongly correlated with greenness derived from camera imagery in all three plant functional types. Specifically, the beginning of the photosynthetic period in deciduous broadleaf forest and grassland/crops and the end of the photosynthetic period in grassland/crops were both correlated with changes in greenness; changes in redness were correlated with the end of the photosynthetic period in deciduous broadleaf forest. However, it was not possible to accurately identify the beginning or ending of the photosynthetic period using camera greenness in evergreen needleleaf forest. At deciduous broadleaf sites, anomalies in integrated greenness and total GPP were significantly correlated up to 60 days after the mean onset date for the start of spring. More generally, results from this work demonstrate that digital repeat photography can be used to quantify both the duration of the photosynthetically active period as well as total GPP in deciduous broadleaf forest and grassland/crops, but that new and different approaches are required before comparable results can be achieved in evergreen needleleaf forest.

Digital repeat photography is becoming widely used for near-surface remote sensing of vegetation. Canopy greenness, which has been used extensively for phenological applications, can be readily quantified from camera images. Important questions remain, however, as to whether the observed changes in canopy greenness are directly related to changes in leaf-level traits, changes in canopy structure, or some combination thereof. We investigated relationships between canopy greenness and various metrics of canopy structure and function, using five years (2008–2012) of automated digital imagery, ground observations of phenological transitions, leaf area index (LAI) measurements, and eddy covariance estimates of gross ecosystem photosynthesis from the Harvard Forest, a temperate deciduous forest in the northeastern United States. Additionally, we sampled canopy sunlit leaves on a weekly basis throughout the growing season of 2011. We measured physiological and morphological traits including leaf size, mass (wet/dry), nitrogen content, chlorophyll fluorescence, and spectral reflectance and characterized individual leaf color with flatbed scanner imagery. Our results show that observed spring and autumn phenological transition dates are well captured by information extracted from digital repeat photography. However, spring development of both LAI and the measured physiological and morphological traits are shown to lag behind spring increases in canopy greenness, which rises very quickly to its maximum value before leaves are even half their final size. Based on the hypothesis that changes in canopy greenness represent the aggregate effect of changes in both leaf-level properties (specifically, leaf color) and changes in canopy structure (specifically, LAI), we developed a two end-member mixing model. With just a single free parameter, the model was able to reproduce the observed seasonal trajectory of canopy greenness. This analysis shows that canopy greenness is relatively insensitive to changes in LAI at high LAI levels, which we further demonstrate by assessing the impact of an ice storm on both LAI and canopy greenness. Our study provides new insights into the mechanisms driving seasonal changes in canopy greenness retrieved from digital camera imagery. The nonlinear relationship between canopy greenness and canopy LAI has important implications both for phenological research applications and for assessing responses of vegetation to disturbances.

Metabolic theory and body size constraints on biomass production and decomposition suggest that differences in the intrinsic potential net ecosystem production (NEPPOT ) should be small among contrasting C3 grasslands and therefore unable to explain the wide range in the annual apparent net ecosystem production (NEPAPP ) reported by previous studies. We estimated NEPPOT for nine C3 grasslands under contrasting climate and management regimes using multiyear eddy covariance data. NEPPOT converged within a narrow range, suggesting little difference in the net carbon dioxide uptake capacity among C3 grasslands. Our results indicate a unique feature of C3 grasslands compared with other terrestrial ecosystems and suggest a state of stability in NEPPOT due to tightly coupled production and respiration processes. Consequently, the annual NEPAPP of C3 grasslands is primarily a function of seasonal and short-term environmental and management constraints, and therefore especially susceptible to changes in future climate patterns and associated adaptation of management practices., (© 2013 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.)