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5. Towards a better future for biodiversity and people: Modelling Nature Futures

Author

Kim, HyeJin, Peterson, Garry D., Cheung, William W.L., Ferrier, Simon, Alkemade, Rob, Arneth, Almut, Kuiper, Jan J., Okayasu, Sana, Pereira, Laura, Acosta, Lilibeth A., Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca, den Belder, Eefje, Eddy, Tyler D., Johnson, Justin A, Karlsson-Vinkhuyzen, Sylvia, Kok, Marcel T.J., Leadley, Paul, Leclère, David, Lundquist, Carolyn J., Rondinini, Carlo, Scholes, Robert J., Schoolenberg, Machteld A., Shin, Yunne-Jai, Stehfest, Elke, Stephenson, Fabrice, Visconti, Piero, van Vuuren, Detlef, Wabnitz, Colette C.C., José Alava, Juan, Cuadros-Casanova, Ivon, Davies, Kathryn K., Gasalla, Maria A., Halouani, Ghassen, Harfoot, Mike, Hashimoto, Shizuka, Hickler, Thomas, Hirsch, Tim, Kolomytsev, Grigory, Miller, Brian W., Ohashi, Haruka, Gabriela Palomo, Maria, Popp, Alexander, Paco Remme, Roy, Saito, Osamu, Rashid Sumalia, U., Willcock, Simon, and Pereira, Henrique M.

Published
2023
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8. Global trends and scenarios for terrestrial biodiversity and ecosystem services from 1900 to 2050

Author

Pereira, Henrique M., primary, Martins, Inês S., additional, Rosa, Isabel M. D., additional, Kim, HyeJin, additional, Leadley, Paul, additional, Popp, Alexander, additional, van Vuuren, Detlef P., additional, Hurtt, George, additional, Quoss, Luise, additional, Arneth, Almut, additional, Baisero, Daniele, additional, Bakkenes, Michel, additional, Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca, additional, Chini, Louise, additional, Di Marco, Moreno, additional, Ferrier, Simon, additional, Fujimori, Shinichiro, additional, Guerra, Carlos A., additional, Harfoot, Michael, additional, Harwood, Thomas D., additional, Hasegawa, Tomoko, additional, Haverd, Vanessa, additional, Havlík, Petr, additional, Hellweg, Stefanie, additional, Hilbers, Jelle P., additional, Hill, Samantha L. L., additional, Hirata, Akiko, additional, Hoskins, Andrew J., additional, Humpenöder, Florian, additional, Janse, Jan H., additional, Jetz, Walter, additional, Johnson, Justin A., additional, Krause, Andreas, additional, Leclère, David, additional, Matsui, Tetsuya, additional, Meijer, Johan R., additional, Merow, Cory, additional, Obersteiner, Michael, additional, Ohashi, Haruka, additional, De Palma, Adriana, additional, Poulter, Benjamin, additional, Purvis, Andy, additional, Quesada, Benjamin, additional, Rondinini, Carlo, additional, Schipper, Aafke M., additional, Settele, Josef, additional, Sharp, Richard, additional, Stehfest, Elke, additional, Strassburg, Bernardo B. N., additional, Takahashi, Kiyoshi, additional, Talluto, Matthew V., additional, Thuiller, Wilfried, additional, Titeux, Nicolas, additional, Visconti, Piero, additional, Ware, Christopher, additional, Wolf, Florian, additional, and Alkemade, Rob, additional

Published
2024
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12. Global trends and scenarios for terrestrial biodiversity and ecosystem services from 1900 to 2050

Author

Environmental Sciences, Pereira, Henrique M., Martins, Inês S., Rosa, Isabel M.D., Kim, Hye Jin, Leadley, Paul, Popp, Alexander, van Vuuren, Detlef P., Hurtt, George, Quoss, Luise, Arneth, Almut, Baisero, Daniele, Bakkenes, Michel, Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca, Chini, Louise, Di Marco, Moreno, Ferrier, Simon, Fujimori, Shinichiro, Guerra, Carlos A., Harfoot, Michael, Harwood, Thomas D., Hasegawa, Tomoko, Haverd, Vanessa, Havlík, Petr, Hellweg, Stefanie, Hilbers, Jelle P., Hill, Samantha L.L., Hirata, Akiko, Hoskins, Andrew J., Humpenöder, Florian, Janse, Jan H., Jetz, Walter, Johnson, Justin A., Krause, Andreas, Leclère, David, Matsui, Tetsuya, Meijer, Johan R., Merow, Cory, Obersteiner, Michael, Ohashi, Haruka, De Palma, Adriana, Poulter, Benjamin, Purvis, Andy, Quesada, Benjamin, Rondinini, Carlo, Schipper, Aafke M., Settele, Josef, Sharp, Richard, Stehfest, Elke, Strassburg, Bernardo B.N., Takahashi, Kiyoshi, Talluto, Matthew V., Thuiller, Wilfried, Titeux, Nicolas, Visconti, Piero, Ware, Christopher, Wolf, Florian, Alkemade, Rob, Environmental Sciences, Pereira, Henrique M., Martins, Inês S., Rosa, Isabel M.D., Kim, Hye Jin, Leadley, Paul, Popp, Alexander, van Vuuren, Detlef P., Hurtt, George, Quoss, Luise, Arneth, Almut, Baisero, Daniele, Bakkenes, Michel, Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca, Chini, Louise, Di Marco, Moreno, Ferrier, Simon, Fujimori, Shinichiro, Guerra, Carlos A., Harfoot, Michael, Harwood, Thomas D., Hasegawa, Tomoko, Haverd, Vanessa, Havlík, Petr, Hellweg, Stefanie, Hilbers, Jelle P., Hill, Samantha L.L., Hirata, Akiko, Hoskins, Andrew J., Humpenöder, Florian, Janse, Jan H., Jetz, Walter, Johnson, Justin A., Krause, Andreas, Leclère, David, Matsui, Tetsuya, Meijer, Johan R., Merow, Cory, Obersteiner, Michael, Ohashi, Haruka, De Palma, Adriana, Poulter, Benjamin, Purvis, Andy, Quesada, Benjamin, Rondinini, Carlo, Schipper, Aafke M., Settele, Josef, Sharp, Richard, Stehfest, Elke, Strassburg, Bernardo B.N., Takahashi, Kiyoshi, Talluto, Matthew V., Thuiller, Wilfried, Titeux, Nicolas, Visconti, Piero, Ware, Christopher, Wolf, Florian, and Alkemade, Rob

Published
2024

13. Global trends and scenarios for terrestrial biodiversity and ecosystem services from 1900 to 2050

Author

Pereira, Henrique M., Martins, Inês S., Rosa, Isabel M. D., Kim, HyeJin, Leadley, Paul, Popp, Alexander, van Vuuren, Detlef P., Hurtt, George, Quoss, Luise, Arneth, Almut, Baisero, Daniele, Bakkenes, Michel, Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca, Chini, Louise, Di Marco, Moreno, Ferrier, Simon, Fujimori, Shinichiro, Guerra, Carlos A., Harfoot, Michael, Harwood, Thomas D., Hasegawa, Tomoko, Haverd, Vanessa, Havlík, Petr, Hellweg, Stefanie, Hilbers, Jelle P., Hill, Samantha L. L., Hirata, Akiko, Hoskins, Andrew J., Humpenöder, Florian, Janse, Jan H., Jetz, Walter, Johnson, Justin A., Krause, Andreas, Leclère, David, Matsui, Tetsuya, Meijer, Johan R., Merow, Cory, Obersteiner, Michael, Ohashi, Haruka, De Palma, Adriana, Poulter, Benjamin, Purvis, Andy, Quesada, Benjamin, Rondinini, Carlo, Schipper, Aafke M., Settele, Josef, Sharp, Richard, Stehfest, Elke, Strassburg, Bernardo B. N., Takahashi, Kiyoshi, Talluto, Matthew V., Thuiller, Wilfried, Titeux, Nicolas, Visconti, Piero, Ware, Christopher, Wolf, Florian, Alkemade, Rob, Pereira, Henrique M., Martins, Inês S., Rosa, Isabel M. D., Kim, HyeJin, Leadley, Paul, Popp, Alexander, van Vuuren, Detlef P., Hurtt, George, Quoss, Luise, Arneth, Almut, Baisero, Daniele, Bakkenes, Michel, Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca, Chini, Louise, Di Marco, Moreno, Ferrier, Simon, Fujimori, Shinichiro, Guerra, Carlos A., Harfoot, Michael, Harwood, Thomas D., Hasegawa, Tomoko, Haverd, Vanessa, Havlík, Petr, Hellweg, Stefanie, Hilbers, Jelle P., Hill, Samantha L. L., Hirata, Akiko, Hoskins, Andrew J., Humpenöder, Florian, Janse, Jan H., Jetz, Walter, Johnson, Justin A., Krause, Andreas, Leclère, David, Matsui, Tetsuya, Meijer, Johan R., Merow, Cory, Obersteiner, Michael, Ohashi, Haruka, De Palma, Adriana, Poulter, Benjamin, Purvis, Andy, Quesada, Benjamin, Rondinini, Carlo, Schipper, Aafke M., Settele, Josef, Sharp, Richard, Stehfest, Elke, Strassburg, Bernardo B. N., Takahashi, Kiyoshi, Talluto, Matthew V., Thuiller, Wilfried, Titeux, Nicolas, Visconti, Piero, Ware, Christopher, Wolf, Florian, and Alkemade, Rob

Abstract

Based on an extensive model intercomparison, we assessed trends in biodiversity and ecosystem services from historical reconstructions and future scenarios of land-use and climate change. During the 20th century, biodiversity declined globally by 2 to 11%, as estimated by a range of indicators. Provisioning ecosystem services increased several fold, and regulating services decreased moderately. Going forward, policies toward sustainability have the potential to slow biodiversity loss resulting from land-use change and the demand for provisioning services while reducing or reversing declines in regulating services. However, negative impacts on biodiversity due to climate change appear poised to increase, particularly in the higher-emissions scenarios. Our assessment identifies remaining modeling uncertainties but also robustly shows that renewed policy efforts are needed to meet the goals of the Convention on Biological Diversity.

Published
2024

15. Bending the curve of terrestrial biodiversity needs an integrated strategy

Author

Leclère, David, Obersteiner, Michael, Barrett, Mike, Butchart, Stuart H. M., Chaudhary, Abhishek, De Palma, Adriana, DeClerck, Fabrice A. J., Di Marco, Moreno, Doelman, Jonathan C., Dürauer, Martina, Freeman, Robin, Harfoot, Michael, Hasegawa, Tomoko, Hellweg, Stefanie, Hilbers, Jelle P., Hill, Samantha L. L., Humpenöder, Florian, Jennings, Nancy, Krisztin, Tamás, Mace, Georgina M., Ohashi, Haruka, Popp, Alexander, Purvis, Andy, Schipper, Aafke M., Tabeau, Andrzej, Valin, Hugo, van Meijl, Hans, van Zeist, Willem-Jan, Visconti, Piero, Alkemade, Rob, Almond, Rosamunde, Bunting, Gill, Burgess, Neil D., Cornell, Sarah E., Di Fulvio, Fulvio, Ferrier, Simon, Fritz, Steffen, Fujimori, Shinichiro, Grooten, Monique, Harwood, Thomas, Havlík, Petr, Herrero, Mario, Hoskins, Andrew J., Jung, Martin, Kram, Tom, Lotze-Campen, Hermann, Matsui, Tetsuya, Meyer, Carsten, Nel, Deon, Newbold, Tim, Schmidt-Traub, Guido, Stehfest, Elke, Strassburg, Bernardo B. N., van Vuuren, Detlef P., Ware, Chris, Watson, James E. M., Wu, Wenchao, and Young, Lucy

Published
2020
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16. Total economic costs of climate change at different discount rates for market and non-market values

Author

Oda, Takahiro, primary, Takakura, Jun’ya, additional, Tang, Longlong, additional, Iizumi, Toshichika, additional, Itsubo, Norihiro, additional, Ohashi, Haruka, additional, Kiguchi, Masashi, additional, Kumano, Naoko, additional, Takahashi, Kiyoshi, additional, Tanoue, Masahiro, additional, Tamura, Makoto, additional, Zhou, Qian, additional, Hanasaki, Naota, additional, Hasegawa, Tomoko, additional, Park, Chan, additional, Hijioka, Yasuaki, additional, Hirabayashi, Yukiko, additional, Fujimori, Shinichiro, additional, Honda, Yasushi, additional, Matsui, Tetsuya, additional, Matsuda, Hiroyuki, additional, Yokoki, Hiromune, additional, and Oki, Taikan, additional

Published
2023
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21. Historic deforestation and non‐native plant invasions determine vegetation trajectories across an oceanic archipelago.

Author

Ohashi, Haruka, Kato, Hitoshi, Murao, Mina, Kato, Hidetoshi, Kawakami, Kazuto, Kurokawa, Hiroko, Oguro, Michio, Kimura, Fuku, Niiyama, Kaoru, Matsui, Tetsuya, and Shibata, Mitsue

Subjects
*ARCHIPELAGOES, *INTRODUCED species, *BIOLOGICAL invasions, *RESTORATION ecology, *DEFORESTATION, *PLANT invasions, *ECOSYSTEMS
Abstract

Questions: Oceanic islands are global hotspots of endemism and evolutionary radiations but many have been severely degraded by human activities and biological invasions. We evaluated the pace and direction of the natural recovery of ecosystems over 77 years across a subtropical oceanic archipelago including islands of various size, elevation, histories of human settlement and deforestation, and invasions by non‐native plants and mammals. This information is essential to guide the ecological restoration of the archipelago. Location: Forest vegetation on nine of the Ogasawara Islands in the northwestern Pacific Ocean. Methods: We first digitized historical vegetation data of the Ogasawara Islands collected during field surveys in 1935. Then, after checking their species compositions, we integrated past and present plant community types. Finally, we identified the landscape‐scale changes in forest vegetation by comparing vegetation maps from 1935, 1979 and 2012. Results: Over 77 years, the vegetation trajectories of each island varied depending on the introduction of invasive alien species and the remaining proportion of native forest, the latter of which had a strong influence on the recoverability of native forest. Conclusions: Our results highlight the importance of the history of invasive species introductions and the remaining proportion of native forest—both of which reflect the intensity of anthropogenic disturbance—in determining the degree of human intervention needed for restoration on oceanic islands. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2024
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22. Towards a better future for biodiversity and people : Modelling Nature Futures

Author

Kim, Hye Jin, Peterson, Garry D., Cheung, William W.L., Ferrier, Simon, Alkemade, Rob, Arneth, Almut, Kuiper, Jan J., Okayasu, Sana, Pereira, Laura, Acosta, Lilibeth A., Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca, den Belder, Eefje, Eddy, Tyler D., Johnson, Justin A., Karlsson-Vinkhuyzen, Sylvia, Kok, Marcel T.J., Leadley, Paul, Leclère, David, Lundquist, Carolyn J., Rondinini, Carlo, Scholes, Robert J., Schoolenberg, Machteld A., Shin, Yunne Jai, Stehfest, Elke, Stephenson, Fabrice, Visconti, Piero, van Vuuren, Detlef, Wabnitz, Colette C.C., José Alava, Juan, Cuadros-Casanova, Ivon, Davies, Kathryn K., Gasalla, Maria A., Halouani, Ghassen, Harfoot, Mike, Hashimoto, Shizuka, Hickler, Thomas, Hirsch, Tim, Kolomytsev, Grigory, Miller, Brian W., Ohashi, Haruka, Gabriela Palomo, Maria, Popp, Alexander, Paco Remme, Roy, Saito, Osamu, Rashid Sumalia, U., Willcock, Simon, Pereira, Henrique M., Kim, Hye Jin, Peterson, Garry D., Cheung, William W.L., Ferrier, Simon, Alkemade, Rob, Arneth, Almut, Kuiper, Jan J., Okayasu, Sana, Pereira, Laura, Acosta, Lilibeth A., Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca, den Belder, Eefje, Eddy, Tyler D., Johnson, Justin A., Karlsson-Vinkhuyzen, Sylvia, Kok, Marcel T.J., Leadley, Paul, Leclère, David, Lundquist, Carolyn J., Rondinini, Carlo, Scholes, Robert J., Schoolenberg, Machteld A., Shin, Yunne Jai, Stehfest, Elke, Stephenson, Fabrice, Visconti, Piero, van Vuuren, Detlef, Wabnitz, Colette C.C., José Alava, Juan, Cuadros-Casanova, Ivon, Davies, Kathryn K., Gasalla, Maria A., Halouani, Ghassen, Harfoot, Mike, Hashimoto, Shizuka, Hickler, Thomas, Hirsch, Tim, Kolomytsev, Grigory, Miller, Brian W., Ohashi, Haruka, Gabriela Palomo, Maria, Popp, Alexander, Paco Remme, Roy, Saito, Osamu, Rashid Sumalia, U., Willcock, Simon, and Pereira, Henrique M.

Abstract

The Nature Futures Framework (NFF) is a heuristic tool for co-creating positive futures for nature and people. It seeks to open up a diversity of futures through mainly three value perspectives on nature – Nature for Nature, Nature for Society, and Nature as Culture. This paper describes how the NFF can be applied in modelling to support decision-making. First, we describe key considerations for the NFF in developing qualitative and quantitative scenarios: i) multiple value perspectives on nature as a state space where pathways improving nature toward a frontier can be represented, ii) mutually reinforcing key feedbacks of social-ecological systems that are important for nature conservation and human wellbeing, iii) indicators of multiple knowledge systems describing the evolution of complex social-ecological dynamics. We then present three approaches to modelling Nature Futures scenarios in the review, screening, and design phases of policy processes. This paper seeks to facilitate the integration of relational values of nature in models and strengthen modelled linkages across biodiversity, nature's contributions to people, and quality of life.

Published
2023

23. Vulnerability estimation of wetland plant communities to deer grazing in the Ozegahara mire

Author

Yoshikawa, Masato, Hoshino, Yoshinobu, Ohashi, Haruka, Ohshiman, Nanako, and Nagano, Inori

Subjects
保全優先度, plant community, wetland vegetation, 湿原植生, browsing trace, conservation priority, functional traits, 採食痕跡, 機能特性, 植物群落
Abstract

尾瀬ヶ原の湿原植生を構成する主要な群落について，構成種の種特性や食痕の確認頻度から，シカの採食圧に対する脆弱性の評価を行った．低層湿原や低木林・河畔林の群落は，シカの採食影響を受けやすい中・大型の広葉草本または低木を多く含み，食痕の確認頻度が高かったのもこれらの生活形をもつ種であった．このことは，低層湿原や低木林・河畔林で過去との種組成の違いが大きいという，既発表研究の結果と合致していた．また，構成種の積算優占度が大きい群落ほど食痕がみられた種数も多く，シカによく利用されていると推定された．これらのことから，尾瀬ヶ原においては低層湿原や低木林・河畔林の群落で保全対策の優先度が高いと判断された．, Vulnerability of wetland vegetation on the Ozegahara mire was assessed for each representative plant community based on the plant species traits of the component species and frequency of browsing trace in each species. The low-moor communities included rich species of middle to large herbs and shrubs, as same as the shrub community and the riparian forest community. Frequency of browsing trace was also higher in the middle to large herbs and shrub species. These facts corresponded to the result of former study that indicated the low-moor, shrub and riparian forest communities had significant difference in species composition compared to the data from 50 years ago. Furthermore, number of browsed species was larger in the communities which had large cumulative dominance of palatable species in the herb and shrub layer, reflecting preferential use by deer. These results showed that low-moor communities, shrub community, and riparian forest community had higher vulnerabilities than the high-moor communities. Therefore, we concluded that these communities had higher conservation priority to protect from deer grazing in the Ozegahara mire.

Published
2022

24. Biodiversity–productivity relationships are key to nature-based climate solutions

Author

Mori, Akira S., Dee, Laura E., Gonzalez, Andrew, Ohashi, Haruka, Cowles, Jane, Wright, Alexandra J., Loreau, Michel, Hautier, Yann, Newbold, Tim, Reich, Peter B., Matsui, Tetsuya, Takeuchi, Wataru, Okada, Kei-ichi, Seidl, Rupert, and Isbell, Forest

Abstract

The global impacts of biodiversity loss and climate change are interlinked, but the feedbacks between them are rarely assessed. Areas with greater tree diversity tend to be more productive, providing a greater carbon sink, and biodiversity loss could reduce these natural carbon sinks. Here, we quantify how tree and shrub species richness could affect biomass production on biome, national and regional scales. We find that GHG mitigation could help maintain tree diversity and thereby avoid a 9–39% reduction in terrestrial primary productivity across different biomes, which could otherwise occur over the next 50 years. Countries that will incur the greatest economic damages from climate change stand to benefit the most from conservation of tree diversity and primary productivity, which contribute to climate change mitigation. Our results emphasize an opportunity for a triple win for climate, biodiversity and society, and highlight that these co-benefits should be the focus of reforestation programmes.

Published
2024
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25. Author Correction: Identifying long-term stable refugia for relict plant species in East Asia

Author

Tang, Cindy Q., Matsui, Tetsuya, Ohashi, Haruka, Dong, Yi-Fei, Momohara, Arata, Herrando-Moraira, Sonia, Qian, Shenhua, Yang, Yongchuan, Ohsawa, Masahiko, Luu, Hong Truong, Grote, Paul J., Krestov, Pavel V., LePage, Ben, Werger, Marinus, Robertson, Kevin, Hobohm, Carsten, Wang, Chong-Yun, Peng, Ming-Chun, Chen, Xi, Wang, Huan-Chong, Su, Wen-Hua, Zhou, Rui, Li, Shuaifeng, He, Long-Yuan, Yan, Kai, Zhu, Ming-Yuan, Hu, Jun, Yang, Ruo-Han, Li, Wang-Jun, Tomita, Mizuki, Wu, Zhao-Lu, Yan, Hai-Zhong, Zhang, Guang-Fei, He, Hai, Yi, Si-Rong, Gong, Hede, Song, Kun, Song, Ding, Li, Xiao-Shuang, Zhang, Zhi-Ying, Han, Peng-Bin, Shen, Li-Qin, Huang, Diao-Shun, Luo, Kang, and López-Pujol, Jordi

Published
2018
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26. Identifying long-term stable refugia for relict plant species in East Asia

Author

Tang, Cindy Q., Matsui, Tetsuya, Ohashi, Haruka, Dong, Yi-Fei, Momohara, Arata, Herrando-Moraira, Sonia, Qian, Shenhua, Yang, Yongchuan, Ohsawa, Masahiko, Luu, Hong Truong, Grote, Paul J., Krestov, Pavel V., Ben LePage, Werger, Marinus, Robertson, Kevin, Hobohm, Carsten, Wang, Chong-Yun, Peng, Ming-Chun, Chen, Xi, Wang, Huan-Chong, Su, Wen-Hua, Zhou, Rui, Li, Shuaifeng, He, Long-Yuan, Yan, Kai, Zhu, Ming-Yuan, Hu, Jun, Yang, Ruo-Han, Li, Wang-Jun, Tomita, Mizuki, Wu, Zhao-Lu, Yan, Hai-Zhong, Zhang, Guang-Fei, He, Hai, Yi, Si-Rong, Gong, Hede, Song, Kun, Song, Ding, Li, Xiao-Shuang, Zhang, Zhi-Ying, Han, Peng-Bin, Shen, Li-Qin, Huang, Diao-Shun, Luo, Kang, and López-Pujol, Jordi

Published
2018
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27. Mapping potential conflicts between global agriculture and terrestrial conservation

Author

Hoang, Nguyen Tien, Taherzadeh, Oliver, Ohashi, Haruka, Yonekura, Yusuke, Nishijima, Shota, Yamabe, Masaki, Matsui, Testuya, Matsuda, Hiroyuki, Moran, Daniel Dean, and Kanemoto, Keiichiro

Abstract

Demand for food products, often from international trade, has brought agricultural land use into direct competition with biodiversity. Where these potential conflicts occur and which consumers are responsible is poorly understood. By combining conservation priority (CP) maps with agricultural trade data, we estimate current potential conservation risk hotspots driven by 197 countries across 48 agricultural products. Globally, a third of agricultural production occurs in sites of high CP (CP > 0.75, max = 1.0). While cattle, maize, rice, and soybean pose the greatest threat to very high-CP sites, other low-conservation risk products (e.g., sugar beet, pearl millet, and sunflower) currently are less likely to be grown in sites of agri-culture–conservation conflict. Our analysis suggests that a commodity can cause dissimilar conservation threats in different production regions. Accordingly, some of the conservation risks posed by different countries depend on their demand and sourcing patterns of agricultural commodities. Our spatial analyses identify potential hotspots of competition between agriculture and high-conservation value sites (i.e., 0.5° resolution, or ~367 to 3,077km2, grid cells containing both agriculture and high-biodiversity priority habitat), thereby providing additional information that could help prioritize conservation activities and safeguard biodiversity in individual countries and globally. A web-based GIS tool at https://agriculture.spatialfootprint.com/biodiversity/ systematically visualizes the results of our analyses.

Published
2023

28. Climate Stability Index (CSI), una cartografía de alta resolución a escala mundial de la estabilidad climática (3,3 Ma-año 2100) ya disponible para estudios biológicos y ecológicos

Author

Nualart, Neus, Herrando Moraira, Sonia, Galbany Casals, Mercedes, Garcia-Jacas, Núria, Ohashi, Haruka, Matsui, Tetsuya, Susanna de la Serna, Alfonso, Tang, Cindy Q., and López-Pujol, Jordi

Subjects
Cambio climático, Modelos, Áreas protegidas, Cartografía, Climate Stability Index
Abstract

Póster presentado en el V Congreso Ecuatoriano de Mastozoología, III Congreso Nacional de Manejo de Vida Silvestre y I Congreso Ecuatoriano de Centros de Rescate, Zoológicos, Acuarios y Afines, efectuados entre el 19 y 21 de octubre de 2022, en la ciudad Samborondón, Guayas, La variación climática a largo plazo ha tenido un impacto enorme en la evolución de la biodiversidad. El calentamiento global, sin embargo, provocará en un futuro próximo cambios aún más profundos en la flora y fauna en muy poco tiempo. El mapeo de las zonas climáticamente estables e inestables de la Tierra podría mejorar, por tanto, nuestra comprensión de la distribución y evolución de la biodiversidad. En esta comunicación presentamos un conjunto de mapas basados en un nuevo Índice de Estabilidad Climática (Climate Stability Index, CSI), que se aplica a escala planetaria con una resolución muy fina (2,5 arc-min, aproximadamente 5 km). El CSI considera variables bioclimáticas para dos escalas temporales diferentes: (1) desde hace 3,3 Ma (Plioceno Superior) hasta el presente (conjunto de mapas “CSI-pasado”), utilizando los 12 períodos de tiempo que recoge PaleoClim (http://www.paleoclim.org) que representan tanto periodos cálidos como fríos; y (2) desde el presente hasta el año 2100 (“CSI-futuro”), utilizando nueve modelos de circulación general de cambio climático de cuatro períodos disponibles en WorldClim (https://www.worldclim.org) y para cuatro Trayectorias Socioeconómicas Compartidas (SSP por sus siglas en inglés) que se están usando para el 6º informe del IPCC sobre cambio climático. Aunque nuestra propuesta no es la primera ni la única para cartografiar la estabilidad climática, ofrece una serie de ventajas sobre otras existentes: (1) permite ir mucho más atrás en el tiempo respecto al LGM (21.000 BP); (2) utiliza un tamaño de malla muy pequeño (2,5 arc-min en lugar de los habituales 2,5º); (3) utiliza numerosas variables, que incluyen no solo medias sino también extremos y estacionalidad; y (4) los mapas son, además de fácilmente descargables como capas ráster (https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.14672637), personalizables para cada usuario, puesto que el CSI es un índice que se puede volver a calcular de acuerdo con los criterios y objetivos particulares de cada investigador. Creemos que la cartografía basada en el CSI, recientemente publicada y por tanto ya disponible para la comunidad científica (https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-022-01144-5), puede ser de gran utilidad no sólo como mapas de referencia, sino como una variable ambiental que se puede añadir en estudios de modelización de nicho, o bien una cartografía que se puede utilizar para la identificación de refugios climáticos y, por consiguiente, para el diseño de nuevas áreas protegidas (parques naturales, pero también reservas in situ y ex situ para determinadas especies de flora y fauna o para ecosistemas de interés) o modificación de las ya existentes.

Published
2022

30. Identifying long-term stable refugia for dominant Castanopsis species of evergreen broad-leaved forests in East Asia: A tool for ensuring their conservation

Author

Tang, Cindy Q., primary, Matsui, Tetsuya, additional, Ohashi, Haruka, additional, Nualart, Neus, additional, Herrando-Moraira, Sonia, additional, Dong, Yi-Fei, additional, Grote, Paul J., additional, Van Ngoc, Nguyen, additional, Van Sam, Hoang, additional, Li, Shuaifeng, additional, Han, Peng-Bin, additional, Shen, Li-Qin, additional, Huang, Diao-Shun, additional, Peng, Ming-Chun, additional, Wang, Chong-Yun, additional, Li, Xiao-Shuang, additional, Yan, Hai-Zhong, additional, Zhu, Ming-Yuan, additional, Lu, Xia, additional, Wen, Jian-Ran, additional, Yao, Shi-Qian, additional, Du, Min-Rui, additional, Shi, You-Cai, additional, Xiao, Shu-Li, additional, Zeng, Jia-Le, additional, Wang, Huan-Chong, additional, and López-Pujol, Jordi, additional

Published
2022
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34. Total economic costs of climate change at different discount rates for market and non-market values

Author

Oda, Takahiro, Takakura, Jun’ya, Tang, Longlong, Iizumi, Toshichika, Itsubo, Norihiro, Ohashi, Haruka, Kiguchi, Masashi, Kumano, Naoko, Takahashi, Kiyoshi, Tanoue, Masahiro, Tamura, Makoto, Zhou, Qian, Hanasaki, Naota, Hasegawa, Tomoko, Park, Chen, Hijioka, Yasuaki, Hirabayashi, Yukiko, Fujimori, Shinichiro, Honda, Yasushi, Matsui, Tetsuya, Matsuda, Hiroyuki, Yokoki, Hiromune, Oki, Taikan, Oda, Takahiro, Takakura, Jun’ya, Tang, Longlong, Iizumi, Toshichika, Itsubo, Norihiro, Ohashi, Haruka, Kiguchi, Masashi, Kumano, Naoko, Takahashi, Kiyoshi, Tanoue, Masahiro, Tamura, Makoto, Zhou, Qian, Hanasaki, Naota, Hasegawa, Tomoko, Park, Chen, Hijioka, Yasuaki, Hirabayashi, Yukiko, Fujimori, Shinichiro, Honda, Yasushi, Matsui, Tetsuya, Matsuda, Hiroyuki, Yokoki, Hiromune, and Oki, Taikan

Published
2022

37. Identifying long-term stable refugia for dominant Castanopsis species of evergreen broad-leaved forests in East Asia: A tool for ensuring their conservation

Author

Tang Cindy Q., Matsui Tetsuya, Ohashi Haruka, Nualart Neus, Herrando-Moraira Sonia, Dong Yi-Fei, Grote Paul J., Van Ngoc Nguyen, Van Sam Hoang, Li Shuaifeng, Han Peng-Bin, Shen Li-Qin, Huang Diao-Shun, Peng Ming-Chun, Wang Chong-Yun, Li Xiao-Shuang, Yan Hai-Zhong, Zhu Ming-Yuan, Lu Xia, Wen Jian-Ran, Yao Shi-Qian, Du Min-Rui, Shi You-Cai, Xiao Shu-Li, Zeng Jia-Le, Wang Huan-Chong, López-Pujol Jordi, Tang Cindy Q., Matsui Tetsuya, Ohashi Haruka, Nualart Neus, Herrando-Moraira Sonia, Dong Yi-Fei, Grote Paul J., Van Ngoc Nguyen, Van Sam Hoang, Li Shuaifeng, Han Peng-Bin, Shen Li-Qin, Huang Diao-Shun, Peng Ming-Chun, Wang Chong-Yun, Li Xiao-Shuang, Yan Hai-Zhong, Zhu Ming-Yuan, Lu Xia, Wen Jian-Ran, Yao Shi-Qian, Du Min-Rui, Shi You-Cai, Xiao Shu-Li, Zeng Jia-Le, Wang Huan-Chong, and López-Pujol Jordi

Published
2022

38. Identifying long-term stable refugia for dominant Castanopsis species of evergreen broad-leaved forests in East Asia: A tool for ensuring their conservation

Author

Yunnan Province, Yunnan University, Ministry of Science and Technology of the People's Republic of China, Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación (España), Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency (Japan), Northeastern Research Institute of Petrified Wood and Mineral Resources (Thailand), Tang, Cindy Q., Matsui, Tetsuya, Ohashi, Haruka, Nualart, Neus, Herrando Moraira, Sonia, Dong, Yi-Fei, Grote, Paul J., Ngoc, Nguyen Van, Sam, Hoang Van, Li, Shuaifeng, Han, Peng-Bin, Shen, Li-Qin, Huang, Diao-Shun, Peng, Ming-Chun, Wang, Chong-Yun, Li, Xiao-Shuang, Yan, Hai-Zhong, Zhu, Ming-Yuan, Lu, Xia, Wen, Jian-Ran, Yao, Shi-Qian, Du, Min-Rui, Shi, You-Cai, Xiao, Shu-Li, Zeng, Jia-Le, Wang, Huan-Chong, López-Pujol, Jordi, Yunnan Province, Yunnan University, Ministry of Science and Technology of the People's Republic of China, Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación (España), Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency (Japan), Northeastern Research Institute of Petrified Wood and Mineral Resources (Thailand), Tang, Cindy Q., Matsui, Tetsuya, Ohashi, Haruka, Nualart, Neus, Herrando Moraira, Sonia, Dong, Yi-Fei, Grote, Paul J., Ngoc, Nguyen Van, Sam, Hoang Van, Li, Shuaifeng, Han, Peng-Bin, Shen, Li-Qin, Huang, Diao-Shun, Peng, Ming-Chun, Wang, Chong-Yun, Li, Xiao-Shuang, Yan, Hai-Zhong, Zhu, Ming-Yuan, Lu, Xia, Wen, Jian-Ran, Yao, Shi-Qian, Du, Min-Rui, Shi, You-Cai, Xiao, Shu-Li, Zeng, Jia-Le, Wang, Huan-Chong, and López-Pujol, Jordi

Abstract

Identifying and protecting refugia is a priority for conservation management under projected anthropogenic climate change. We have two main objectives: the first is to explore the spatial (East Asia) and temporal (Last Glacial Maximum to year 2070) distribution patterns of dominant Castanopsis species of evergreen broad-leaved forests, also the relation with their niche breadths; the second is to identify long-term stable refugia for preserving these species and provide a framework of conservation strategies. We find that there is an extraordinary richness with 32 dominant Castanopsis species, and they form both a geographically and climatically almost unbroken connection from ca. 5°N to 38°N, having thus ecological significance. During the Mid-Holocene and, particularly, the Last Glacial Maximum, the predicted suitable areas of the species as a whole were larger than those in the present. By 2070, potentially suitable areas with high richness of dominant Castanopsis species will be reduced by 94.5 % on average. No correlation between species niche breadths and distribution ranges is found, which could be due to regional climate stability. Mountains of southwestern and southern Yunnan in China are identified as climatically long-term stable refugia for 7¿9 Castanopsis species. We recommend that these refugia have the highest priority of conservation to prevent their extinction. Our suggested urgent measures include improving the effectiveness of currently protected Castanopsis species and expanding the network of protected areas to cover a larger fraction of the refugia, as well as ensuring Castanopsis species natural regeneration potential in fragmented and natural secondary forest areas.

Published
2022

39. Climate Stability Index maps, a global high resolution cartography of climate stability from Pliocene to 2100

Author

Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación (España), Generalitat de Catalunya, Universidad Autónoma de Barcelona, Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency (Japan), Herrando Moraira, Sonia, Nualart, Neus, Galbany-Casals, Mercè, Garcia-Jacas, Núria, Ohashi, Haruka, Matsui, Tetsuya, Susanna de la Serna, Alfonso, Tang, Cindy Q., López-Pujol, Jordi, Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación (España), Generalitat de Catalunya, Universidad Autónoma de Barcelona, Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency (Japan), Herrando Moraira, Sonia, Nualart, Neus, Galbany-Casals, Mercè, Garcia-Jacas, Núria, Ohashi, Haruka, Matsui, Tetsuya, Susanna de la Serna, Alfonso, Tang, Cindy Q., and López-Pujol, Jordi

Abstract

Climate changes are top biodiversity shapers, both during the past and future. Mapping the most climatic stable and unstable zones on Earth could improve our understanding of biodiversity distribution and evolution. Here, we present a set of maps based on a global scale, high resolution (ca. 5¿km) new Climate Stability Index (CSI). The CSI considers bioclimatic variables for two different time ranges: (1) from Pliocene (3.3¿Ma) to the present (CSI-past map set), using 12 time periods of PaleoClim representing warm and cold cycles; and (2) from present to the year 2100 (CSI-future), using nine general circulation models of climate change of four periods available from WorldClim. We calculated standard deviation of the variables and selected an uncorrelated set for summing, normalizing and obtaining the CSI maps. Our approach is useful for fields such as biogeography, earth sciences, agriculture, or sociology. However, CSI is an index that can be re-calculated according to particular criteria and objectives (e.g. temperature variables); maps are, therefore, customizable to every user.

Published
2022

40. Ecological niche modeling applied to the conservation of the East Asian relict endemism Glyptostrobus pensilis (Cupressaceae)

Author

Yunnan Province, Yunnan University, Ministry of Science and Technology of the People's Republic of China, Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación (España), Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency (Japan), Pueyo-Herrera, Paula, Tang, Cindy Q., Matsui, Tetsuya, Ohashi, Haruka, Qian, Shenhua, Yang, Yongchuan, Herrando Moraira, Sonia, Nualart, Neus, López-Pujol, Jordi, Yunnan Province, Yunnan University, Ministry of Science and Technology of the People's Republic of China, Ministerio de Ciencia e Innovación (España), Environmental Restoration and Conservation Agency (Japan), Pueyo-Herrera, Paula, Tang, Cindy Q., Matsui, Tetsuya, Ohashi, Haruka, Qian, Shenhua, Yang, Yongchuan, Herrando Moraira, Sonia, Nualart, Neus, and López-Pujol, Jordi

Abstract

Glyptostrobus pensilis (Cupressaceae) is the only surviving species of the genus Glyptostrobus. Although the species is widely cultivated throughout China, in the wild it only occurs as small stands in southeastern China, central Laos, and southern Vietnam. However, its low genetic variability, lack of recruitment, and the progressive destruction of its habitat caused by humans, have meant that the populations are showing a clear declining trend and the species as a whole is threatened. Ecological niche modeling is used here to study the present potential distribution, as well as in the future (2061–2080) using several global circulation models under two of the shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP 126 and SSP 585) that are being used to produce the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report. The current potential area of G. pensilis is of 1,452,481 km with the areas of greatest probability of presence located in southeastern China. This potential area is reduced for the future according to most models, with greater losses for the SSP 585 scenario. Between 6.9 and 31.3% of all wild populations of G. pensilis would be outside potential areas (including the Lao populations, which harbor the highest levels of genetic variability). Conservation measures include the expansion of the current network of protected areas (since over 90% of wild populations do not occur within them), the development of propagation techniques, and the carrying out of translocation activities that should require international collaboration among the countries in which the species is found. With the current knowledge, we have reassessed the threat status of the species under the IUCN criteria, downgrading it from CR to EN both for China and at global level.

Published
2022

46. Towards a better future for biodiversity and people: modelling Nature Futures

Author

Kim, HyeJin, primary, Peterson, Garry, additional, Cheung, William, additional, Ferrier, Simon, additional, Alkemade, Rob, additional, Arneth, Almut, additional, Kuiper, Jan, additional, Okayasu, Sana, additional, Pereira, Laura M., additional, Acosta, Lilibeth A., additional, chaplin-kramer, rebecca, additional, Belder, Eefje den, additional, Eddy, Tyler, additional, Johnson, Justin, additional, Karlsson-Vinkhuysen, Sylvia, additional, Kok, Marcel, additional, Leadley, Paul, additional, Leclère, David, additional, Lundquist, Carolyn J., additional, Rondinini, Carlo, additional, Scholes, Robert J., additional, Schoolenberg, Machteld, additional, Shin, Yunne-Jai, additional, Stehfest, Elke, additional, Stephenson, Fabrice, additional, Visconti, Piero, additional, van Vuuren, Detlef P., additional, Wabnitz, Colette C., additional, Alava, Juan José, additional, Cuadros-Casanova, Ivon, additional, Davies, Kathryn K., additional, Gasalla, Maria A., additional, Halouani, Ghassen, additional, Harfoot, Michael B. J., additional, Hashimoto, Shizuka, additional, Hickler, Thomas, additional, Hirsch, Tim, additional, Kolomytsev, Grigory, additional, Miller, Brian, additional, Ohashi, Haruka, additional, Palomo, Maria Gabriela, additional, Popp, Alexander, additional, Remme, Roy Paco, additional, Saito, Osamu, additional, Sumaila, Rashid, additional, Willcock, Simon, additional, and Pereira, Henrique, additional

Published
2021
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48. Towards a better future for biodiversity and people: modelling Nature Futures

Author

Environmental Governance, Environmental Sciences, Kim, HyeJin, Peterson, Garry, Cheung, William, Ferrier, Simon, Alkemade, Rob, Arneth, Almut, Kuiper, Jan, Okayasu, Sana, Pereira, Laura M., Acosta, Lilibeth A., chaplin-kramer, rebecca, Belder, Eefje den, Eddy, Tyler, Johnson, Justin, Karlsson-Vinkhuysen, Sylvia, Kok, Marcel, Leadley, Paul, Leclère, David, Lundquist, Carolyn J., Rondinini, Carlo, Scholes, Robert J., Schoolenberg, Machteld, Shin, Yunne-Jai, Stehfest, Elke, Stephenson, Fabrice, Visconti, Piero, Vuuren, Detlef P. van, Wabnitz, Colette C., Alava, Juan José, Cuadros-Casanova, Ivon, Gasalla, Maria A., Halouani, Ghassen, Harfoot, Michael B. J., Hashimoto, Shizuka, Hickler, Thomas, Hirsch, Tim, Kolomytsev, Grigory, Miller, Brian, Ohashi, Haruka, Palomo, Maria Gabriela, Popp, Alexander, Remme, Roy Paco, Saito, Osamu, Sumaila, Rashid, Willcock, Simon, Pereira, Henrique, Environmental Governance, Environmental Sciences, Kim, HyeJin, Peterson, Garry, Cheung, William, Ferrier, Simon, Alkemade, Rob, Arneth, Almut, Kuiper, Jan, Okayasu, Sana, Pereira, Laura M., Acosta, Lilibeth A., chaplin-kramer, rebecca, Belder, Eefje den, Eddy, Tyler, Johnson, Justin, Karlsson-Vinkhuysen, Sylvia, Kok, Marcel, Leadley, Paul, Leclère, David, Lundquist, Carolyn J., Rondinini, Carlo, Scholes, Robert J., Schoolenberg, Machteld, Shin, Yunne-Jai, Stehfest, Elke, Stephenson, Fabrice, Visconti, Piero, Vuuren, Detlef P. van, Wabnitz, Colette C., Alava, Juan José, Cuadros-Casanova, Ivon, Gasalla, Maria A., Halouani, Ghassen, Harfoot, Michael B. J., Hashimoto, Shizuka, Hickler, Thomas, Hirsch, Tim, Kolomytsev, Grigory, Miller, Brian, Ohashi, Haruka, Palomo, Maria Gabriela, Popp, Alexander, Remme, Roy Paco, Saito, Osamu, Sumaila, Rashid, Willcock, Simon, and Pereira, Henrique

Published
2021

49. Biodiversity–productivity relationships are key to nature-based climate solutions

Author

Sub Ecology and Biodiversity, Ecology and Biodiversity, Mori, Akira S., Dee, Laura E., Gonzalez, Andrew, Ohashi, Haruka, Cowles, Jane, Wright, Alexandra J., Loreau, Michel, Hautier, Yann, Newbold, Tim, Reich, Peter B., Matsui, Tetsuya, Takeuchi, Wataru, Okada, Kei ichi, Seidl, Rupert, Isbell, Forest, Sub Ecology and Biodiversity, Ecology and Biodiversity, Mori, Akira S., Dee, Laura E., Gonzalez, Andrew, Ohashi, Haruka, Cowles, Jane, Wright, Alexandra J., Loreau, Michel, Hautier, Yann, Newbold, Tim, Reich, Peter B., Matsui, Tetsuya, Takeuchi, Wataru, Okada, Kei ichi, Seidl, Rupert, and Isbell, Forest

Published
2021

50. Towards a better future for biodiversity and people: Modelling Nature Futures

Author

Kim, Hyejin, Peterson, Garry, Cheung, William, Ferrier, Simon, Alkemade, Rob, Arneth, Almut, Kuiper, Jan, Okayasu, Sana, Pereira, Laura M., Acosta, Lilibeth A., Chaplin-kramer, Rebecca, Belder, Eefje Den, Eddy, Tyler, Johnson, Justin, Karlsson-vinkhuysen, Sylvia, Kok, Marcel, Leadley, Paul, Leclère, David, Lundquist, Carolyn J., Rondinini, Carlo, Scholes, Robert J., Schoolenberg, Machteld, Shin, Yunne-jai, Stehfest, Elke, Stephenson, Fabrice, Visconti, Piero, Van Vuuren, Detlef P., Wabnitz, Colette C., Alava, Juan José, Cuadros-casanova, Ivon, Davies, Kathryn K., Gasalla, Maria A., Halouani, Ghassen, Harfoot, Michael B. J., Hashimoto, Shizuka, Hickler, Thomas, Hirsch, Tim, Kolomytsev, Grigory, Miller, Brian, Ohashi, Haruka, Palomo, Maria Gabriela, Popp, Alexander, Remme, Roy Paco, Saito, Osamu, Sumaila, Rashid, Willcock, Simon, Pereira, Henrique, Kim, Hyejin, Peterson, Garry, Cheung, William, Ferrier, Simon, Alkemade, Rob, Arneth, Almut, Kuiper, Jan, Okayasu, Sana, Pereira, Laura M., Acosta, Lilibeth A., Chaplin-kramer, Rebecca, Belder, Eefje Den, Eddy, Tyler, Johnson, Justin, Karlsson-vinkhuysen, Sylvia, Kok, Marcel, Leadley, Paul, Leclère, David, Lundquist, Carolyn J., Rondinini, Carlo, Scholes, Robert J., Schoolenberg, Machteld, Shin, Yunne-jai, Stehfest, Elke, Stephenson, Fabrice, Visconti, Piero, Van Vuuren, Detlef P., Wabnitz, Colette C., Alava, Juan José, Cuadros-casanova, Ivon, Davies, Kathryn K., Gasalla, Maria A., Halouani, Ghassen, Harfoot, Michael B. J., Hashimoto, Shizuka, Hickler, Thomas, Hirsch, Tim, Kolomytsev, Grigory, Miller, Brian, Ohashi, Haruka, Palomo, Maria Gabriela, Popp, Alexander, Remme, Roy Paco, Saito, Osamu, Sumaila, Rashid, Willcock, Simon, and Pereira, Henrique

Abstract

The Nature Futures Framework (NFF) is a heuristic tool for co-creating positive futures for nature and people. It seeks to open up a diversity of futures through mainly three value perspectives on nature – Nature for Nature, Nature for Society, Nature as Culture. In this paper, we describe how the NFF can be applied in modelling to support policy. First, it describes key building blocks of the NFF in developing qualitative and quantitative scenarios: i) multiple value perspectives on nature and the frontier representing their improvements, ii) incorporating mutually reinforcing and key feedbacks of social-ecological systems, iii) indicators describing the evolution of social-ecological systems. We then present three approaches to modelling Nature Futures scenarios in review, screening and design phases of policy processes. This paper seeks to facilitate the integration of relational values of nature in models and to strengthen modelled linkages across biodiversity, nature’s contributions to people and quality of life.

Published
2021
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