Search

Your search keyword '"Oidtman, Rachel"' showing total 31 results
Start Over Author "Oidtman, Rachel"
31 results on '"Oidtman, Rachel"'

2. Multiple models for outbreak decision support in the face of uncertainty.

Author

Shea, Katriona, Borchering, Rebecca K, Probert, William JM, Howerton, Emily, Bogich, Tiffany L, Li, Shou-Li, van Panhuis, Willem G, Viboud, Cecile, Aguás, Ricardo, Belov, Artur A, Bhargava, Sanjana H, Cavany, Sean M, Chang, Joshua C, Chen, Cynthia, Chen, Jinghui, Chen, Shi, Chen, YangQuan, Childs, Lauren M, Chow, Carson C, Crooker, Isabel, Del Valle, Sara Y, España, Guido, Fairchild, Geoffrey, Gerkin, Richard C, Germann, Timothy C, Gu, Quanquan, Guan, Xiangyang, Guo, Lihong, Hart, Gregory R, Hladish, Thomas J, Hupert, Nathaniel, Janies, Daniel, Kerr, Cliff C, Klein, Daniel J, Klein, Eili Y, Lin, Gary, Manore, Carrie, Meyers, Lauren Ancel, Mittler, John E, Mu, Kunpeng, Núñez, Rafael C, Oidtman, Rachel J, Pasco, Remy, Pastore Y Piontti, Ana, Paul, Rajib, Pearson, Carl AB, Perdomo, Dianela R, Perkins, T Alex, Pierce, Kelly, Pillai, Alexander N, Rael, Rosalyn Cherie, Rosenfeld, Katherine, Ross, Chrysm Watson, Spencer, Julie A, Stoltzfus, Arlin B, Toh, Kok Ben, Vattikuti, Shashaank, Vespignani, Alessandro, Wang, Lingxiao, White, Lisa J, Xu, Pan, Yang, Yupeng, Yogurtcu, Osman N, Zhang, Weitong, Zhao, Yanting, Zou, Difan, Ferrari, Matthew J, Pannell, David, Tildesley, Michael J, Seifarth, Jack, Johnson, Elyse, Biggerstaff, Matthew, Johansson, Michael A, Slayton, Rachel B, Levander, John D, Stazer, Jeff, Kerr, Jessica, and Runge, Michael C

Subjects
Humans, Uncertainty, Public Health, Disease Outbreaks, Pandemics, COVID-19, cognitive biases, decision theory, multi-model aggregation, Prevention, Brain Disorders, Good Health and Well Being
Abstract

Policymakers must make management decisions despite incomplete knowledge and conflicting model projections. Little guidance exists for the rapid, representative, and unbiased collection of policy-relevant scientific input from independent modeling teams. Integrating approaches from decision analysis, expert judgment, and model aggregation, we convened multiple modeling teams to evaluate COVID-19 reopening strategies for a mid-sized United States county early in the pandemic. Projections from seventeen distinct models were inconsistent in magnitude but highly consistent in ranking interventions. The 6-mo-ahead aggregate projections were well in line with observed outbreaks in mid-sized US counties. The aggregate results showed that up to half the population could be infected with full workplace reopening, while workplace restrictions reduced median cumulative infections by 82%. Rankings of interventions were consistent across public health objectives, but there was a strong trade-off between public health outcomes and duration of workplace closures, and no win-win intermediate reopening strategies were identified. Between-model variation was high; the aggregate results thus provide valuable risk quantification for decision making. This approach can be applied to the evaluation of management interventions in any setting where models are used to inform decision making. This case study demonstrated the utility of our approach and was one of several multimodel efforts that laid the groundwork for the COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub, which has provided multiple rounds of real-time scenario projections for situational awareness and decision making to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention since December 2020.

Published
2023

3. Trade-offs between individual and ensemble forecasts of an emerging infectious disease.

Author

Oidtman, Rachel J, Omodei, Elisa, Kraemer, Moritz UG, Castañeda-Orjuela, Carlos A, Cruz-Rivera, Erica, Misnaza-Castrillón, Sandra, Cifuentes, Myriam Patricia, Rincon, Luz Emilse, Cañon, Viviana, Alarcon, Pedro de, España, Guido, Huber, John H, Hill, Sarah C, Barker, Christopher M, Johansson, Michael A, Manore, Carrie A, Reiner, Robert C, Rodriguez-Barraquer, Isabel, Siraj, Amir S, Frias-Martinez, Enrique, García-Herranz, Manuel, and Perkins, T Alex

Subjects
Emerging Infectious Diseases, Infectious Diseases, 2.5 Research design and methodologies (aetiology), Infection
Abstract

Probabilistic forecasts play an indispensable role in answering questions about the spread of newly emerged pathogens. However, uncertainties about the epidemiology of emerging pathogens can make it difficult to choose among alternative model structures and assumptions. To assess the potential for uncertainties about emerging pathogens to affect forecasts of their spread, we evaluated the performance 16 forecasting models in the context of the 2015-2016 Zika epidemic in Colombia. Each model featured a different combination of assumptions about human mobility, spatiotemporal variation in transmission potential, and the number of virus introductions. We found that which model assumptions had the most ensemble weight changed through time. We additionally identified a trade-off whereby some individual models outperformed ensemble models early in the epidemic, but on average the ensembles outperformed all individual models. Our results suggest that multiple models spanning uncertainty across alternative assumptions are necessary to obtain robust forecasts for emerging infectious diseases.

Published
2021

4. Evaluation of individual and ensemble probabilistic forecasts of COVID-19 mortality in the United States

Author

Cramer, Estee Y., Ray, Evan L., Lopez, Velma K., Bracher, Johannes, Brennen, Andrea, Rivadeneira, Alvaro J. Castro, Gerding, Aaron, Gneiting, Tilmann, House, Katie H., Huang, Yuxin, Jayawardena, Dasuni, Kanji, Abdul H., Khandelwal, Ayush, Le, Khoa, Mühlemann, Anja, Niemi, Jarad, Shah, Apurv, Stark, Ariane, Wang, Yijin, Wattanachit, Nutcha, Zorn, Martha W., Gu, Youyang, Jain, Sansiddh, Bannur, Nayana, Deva, Ayush, Kulkarni, Mihir, Merugu, Srujana, Raval, Alpan, Shingi, Siddhant, Tiwari, Avtansh, White, Jerome, Abernethy, Neil F., Woody, Spencer, Dahan, Maytal, Fox, Spencer, Gaither, Kelly, Lachmann, Michael, Meyers, Lauren Ancel, Scott, James G., Tec, Mauricio, Srivastava, Ajitesh, George, Glover E., Cegan, Jeffrey C., Dettwiller, Ian D., England, William P., Farthing, Matthew W., Hunter, Robert H., Lafferty, Brandon, Linkov, Igor, Mayo, Michael L., Parno, Matthew D., Rowland, Michael A., Trump, Benjamin D., Zhang-James, Yanli, Chen, Samuel, Faraone, Stephen V., Hess, Jonathan, Morley, Christopher P., Salekin, Asif, Wang, Dongliang, Corsetti, Sabrina M., Baer, Thomas M., Eisenberg, Marisa C., Falb, Karl, Huang, Yitao, Martin, Emily T., McCauley, Ella, Myers, Robert L., Schwarz, Tom, Sheldon, Daniel, Gibson, Graham Casey, Yu, Rose, Gao, Liyao, Ma, Yian, Wu, Dongxia, Yan, Xifeng, Jin, Xiaoyong, Wang, Yu-Xiang, Chen, YangQuan, Guo, Lihong, Zhao, Yanting, Gu, Quanquan, Chen, Jinghui, Wang, Lingxiao, Xu, Pan, Zhang, Weitong, Zou, Difan, Biegel, Hannah, Lega, Joceline, McConnell, Steve, Nagraj, V. P., Guertin, Stephanie L., Hulme-Lowe, Christopher, Turner, Stephen D., Shi, Yunfeng, Ban, Xuegang, Walraven, Robert, Hong, Qi-Jun, Kong, Stanley, van de Walle, Axel, Turtle, James A., Ben-Nun, Michal, Riley, Steven, Riley, Pete, Koyluoglu, Ugur, DesRoches, David, Forli, Pedro, Hamory, Bruce, Kyriakides, Christina, Leis, Helen, Milliken, John, Moloney, Michael, Morgan, James, Nirgudkar, Ninad, Ozcan, Gokce, Piwonka, Noah, Ravi, Matt, Schrader, Chris, Shakhnovich, Elizabeth, Siegel, Daniel, Spatz, Ryan, Stiefeling, Chris, Wilkinson, Barrie, Wong, Alexander, Cavany, Sean, España, Guido, Moore, Sean, Oidtman, Rachel, Perkins, Alex, Kraus, David, Kraus, Andrea, Gao, Zhifeng, Bian, Jiang, Cao, Wei, Ferres, Juan Lavista, Li, Chaozhuo, Liu, Tie-Yan, Xie, Xing, Zhang, Shun, Zheng, Shun, Vespignani, Alessandro, Chinazzi, Matteo, Davis, Jessica T., Mu, Kunpeng, Piontti, Ana Pastore y, Xiong, Xinyue, Zheng, Andrew, Baek, Jackie, Farias, Vivek, Georgescu, Andreea, Levi, Retsef, Sinha, Deeksha, Wilde, Joshua, Perakis, Georgia, Bennouna, Mohammed Amine, Nze-Ndong, David, Singhvi, Divya, Spantidakis, Ioannis, Thayaparan, Leann, Tsiourvas, Asterios, Sarker, Arnab, Jadbabaie, Ali, Shah, Devavrat, Della Penna, Nicolas, Celi, Leo A., Sundar, Saketh, Wolfinger, Russ, Osthus, Dave, Castro, Lauren, Fairchild, Geoffrey, Michaud, Isaac, Karlen, Dean, Kinsey, Matt, Mullany, Luke C., Rainwater-Lovett, Kaitlin, Shin, Lauren, Tallaksen, Katharine, Wilson, Shelby, Lee, Elizabeth C., Dent, Juan, Grantz, Kyra H., Hill, Alison L., Kaminsky, Joshua, Kaminsky, Kathryn, Keegan, Lindsay T., Lauer, Stephen A., Lemaitre, Joseph C., Lessler, Justin, Meredith, Hannah R., Perez-Saez, Javier, Shah, Sam, Smith, Claire P., Truelove, Shaun A., Wills, Josh, Marshall, Maximilian, Gardner, Lauren, Nixon, Kristen, Burant, John C., Wang, Lily, Gao, Lei, Gu, Zhiling, Kim, Myungjin, Li, Xinyi, Wang, Guannan, Wang, Yueying, Yu, Shan, Reiner, Robert C., Barber, Ryan, Gakidou, Emmanuela, Hay, Simon I., Lim, Steve, Murray, Chris, Pigott, David, Gurung, Heidi L., Baccam, Prasith, Stage, Steven A., Suchoski, Bradley T., Prakash, B. Aditya, Adhikari, Bijaya, Cui, Jiaming, Rodríguez, Alexander, Tabassum, Anika, Xie, Jiajia, Keskinocak, Pinar, Asplund, John, Baxter, Arden, Oruc, Buse Eylul, Serban, Nicoleta, Arik, Sercan O., Dusenberry, Mike, Epshteyn, Arkady, Kanal, Elli, Le, Long T., Li, Chun-Liang, Pfister, Tomas, Sava, Dario, Sinha, Rajarishi, Tsai, Thomas, Yoder, Nate, Yoon, Jinsung, Zhang, Leyou, Abbott, Sam, Bosse, Nikos I., Funk, Sebastian, Hellewell, Joel, Meakin, Sophie R., Sherratt, Katharine, Zhou, Mingyuan, Kalantari, Rahi, Yamana, Teresa K., Pei, Sen, Shaman, Jeffrey, Li, Michael L., Bertsimas, Dimitris, Lami, Omar Skali, Soni, Saksham, Bouardi, Hamza Tazi, Ayer, Turgay, Adee, Madeline, Chhatwal, Jagpreet, Dalgic, Ozden O., Ladd, Mary A., Linas, Benjamin P., Mueller, Peter, Xiao, Jade, Wang, Yuanjia, Wang, Qinxia, Xie, Shanghong, Zeng, Donglin, Green, Alden, Bien, Jacob, Brooks, Logan, Hu, Addison J., Jahja, Maria, McDonald, Daniel, Narasimhan, Balasubramanian, Politsch, Collin, Rajanala, Samyak, Rumack, Aaron, Simon, Noah, Tibshirani, Ryan J., Tibshirani, Rob, Ventura, Valerie, Wasserman, Larry, O’Dea, Eamon B., Drake, John M., Pagano, Robert, Tran, Quoc T., Ho, Lam Si Tung, Huynh, Huong, Walker, Jo W., Slayton, Rachel B., Johansson, Michael A., Biggerstaff, Matthew, and Reich, Nicholas G.

Published
2022

9. Travel Surveillance and Genomics Uncover a Hidden Zika Outbreak during the Waning Epidemic

Author

Grubaugh, Nathan D., Saraf, Sharada, Gangavarapu, Karthik, Watts, Alexander, Tan, Amanda L., Oidtman, Rachel J., Ladner, Jason T., Oliveira, Glenn, Matteson, Nathaniel L., Kraemer, Moritz U.G., Vogels, Chantal B.F., Hentoff, Aaron, Bhatia, Deepit, Stanek, Danielle, Scott, Blake, Landis, Vanessa, Stryker, Ian, Cone, Marshall R., Kopp, Edgar W., IV, Cannons, Andrew C., Heberlein-Larson, Lea, White, Stephen, Gillis, Leah D., Ricciardi, Michael J., Kwal, Jaclyn, Lichtenberger, Paola K., Magnani, Diogo M., Watkins, David I., Palacios, Gustavo, Hamer, Davidson H., Gardner, Lauren M., Perkins, T. Alex, Baele, Guy, Khan, Kamran, Morrison, Andrea, Isern, Sharon, Michael, Scott F., and Andersen, Kristian G.

Published
2019
Full Text
View/download PDF

10. Lying in wait: the resurgence of dengue virus after the Zika epidemic in Brazil

Author

Brito, Anderson Fernandes, Machado, Lais Ceschini, Oidtman, Rachel J., Siconelli, Márcio Junio Lima, Tran, Quan Minh, Fauver, Joseph R., Carvalho, Rodrigo Dias de Oliveira, Dezordi, Filipe Zimmer, Pereira, Mylena Ribeiro, de Castro-Jorge, Luiza Antunes, Minto, Elaine Cristina Manini, Passos, Luzia Márcia Romanholi, Kalinich, Chaney C., Petrone, Mary E., Allen, Emma, España, Guido Camargo, Huang, Angkana T., Cummings, Derek A. T., Baele, Guy, Franca, Rafael Freitas Oliveira, da Fonseca, Benedito Antônio Lopes, Perkins, T. Alex, Wallau, Gabriel Luz, and Grubaugh, Nathan D.

Published
2021
Full Text
View/download PDF

11. Seven Challenges for Spatial Analyses of Vector-Borne Diseases

Author

Perkins, T. Alex, primary, España, Guido, additional, Moore, Sean M., additional, Oidtman, Rachel J., additional, Sharma, Swarnali, additional, Singh, Brajendra, additional, Siraj, Amir S., additional, Soda, K. James, additional, Smith, Morgan, additional, Walters, Magdalene K., additional, and Michael, Edwin, additional

Published
2020
Full Text
View/download PDF

12. The United States COVID-19 Forecast Hub dataset

Author

US COVID-19 Forecast Hub Consortium, Cramer, Estee Y., Huang, Yuxin, Wang, Yijin, Ray, Evan L., Cornell, Matthew, Bracher, Johannes, Brennen, Andrea, Rivadeneira, Alvaro J. Castro, Gerding, Aaron, House, Katie, Jayawardena, Dasuni, Kanji, Abdul Hannan, Khandelwal, Ayush, Le, Khoa, Mody, Vidhi, Mody, Vrushti, Niemi, Jarad, Stark, Ariane, Shah, Apurv, Wattanchit, Nutcha, Zorn, Martha W., Reich, Nicholas G., Gneiting, Tilmann, Mühlemann, Anja, Gu, Youyang, Chen, Yixian, Chintanippu, Krishna, Jivane, Viresh, Khurana, Ankita, Kumar, Ajay, Lakhani, Anshul, Mehrotra, Prakhar, Pasumarty, Sujitha, Shrivastav, Monika, You, Jialu, Bannur, Nayana, Deva, Ayush, Jain, Sansiddh, Kulkarni, Mihir, Merugu, Srujana, Raval, Alpan, Shingi, Siddhant, Tiwari, Avtansh, White, Jerome, Adiga, Aniruddha, Hurt, Benjamin, Lewis, Bryan, Marathe, Madhav, Peddireddy, Akhil Sai, Porebski, Przemyslaw, Venkatramanan, Srinivasan, Wang, Lijing, Dahan, Maytal, Fox, Spencer, Gaither, Kelly, Lachmann, Michael, Meyers, Lauren Ancel, Scott, James G., Tec, Mauricio, Woody, Spencer, Srivastava, Ajitesh, Xu, Tianjian, Cegan, Jeffrey C., Dettwiller, Ian D., England, William P., Farthing, Matthew W., George, Glover E., Hunter, Robert H., Lafferty, Brandon, Linkov, Igor, Mayo, Michael L., Parno, Matthew D., Rowland, Michael A., Trump, Benjamin D., Chen, Samuel, Faraone, Stephen V., Hess, Jonathan, Morley, Christopher P., Salekin, Asif, Wang, Dongliang, Zhang-James, Yanli, Baer, Thomas M., Corsetti, Sabrina M., Eisenberg, Marisa C., Falb, Karl, Huang, Yitao, Martin, Emily T., McCauley, Ella, Myers, Robert L., Schwarz, Tom, Gibson, Graham Casey, Sheldon, Daniel, Gao, Liyao, Ma, Yian, Wu, Dongxia, Yu, Rose, Jin, Xiaoyong, Wang, Yu-Xiang, Yan, Xifeng, Chen, YangQuan, Guo, Lihong, Zhao, Yanting, Chen, Jinghui, Gu, Quanquan, Wang, Lingxiao, Xu, Pan, Zhang, Weitong, Zou, Difan, Chattopadhyay, Ishanu, Huang, Yi, Lu, Guoqing, Pfeiffer, Ruth, Sumner, Timothy, Wang, Dongdong, Wang, Liqiang, Zhang, Shunpu, Zou, Zihang, Biegel, Hannah, Lega, Joceline, Hussain, Fazle, Khan, Zeina, Van Bussel, Frank, McConnell, Steve, Guertin, Stephanie L., Hulme-Lowe, Christopher, Nagraj, V. P., Turner, Stephen D., Bejar, Benjamín, Choirat, Christine, Flahault, Antoine, Krymova, Ekaterina, Lee, Gavin, Manetti, Elisa, Namigai, Kristen, Obozinski, Guillaume, Sun, Tao, Thanou, Dorina, Ban, Xuegang, Shi, Yunfeng, Walraven, Robert, Hong, Qi-Jun, Van De Walle, Axel, Ben-Nun, Michal, Riley, Steven, Riley, Pete, Turtle, James, Cao, Duy, Galasso, Joseph, Cho, Jae H., Jo, Areum, DesRoches, David, Forli, Pedro, Hamory, Bruce, Koyluoglu, Ugur, Kyriakides, Christina, Leis, Helen, Milliken, John, Moloney, Michael, Morgan, James, Nirgudkar, Ninad, Ozcan, Gokce, Piwonka, Noah, Ravi, Matt, Schrader, Chris, Shakhnovich, Elizabeth, Siegel, Daniel, Spatz, Ryan, Stiefeling, Chris, Wilkinson, Barrie, Wong, Alexander, Cavany, Sean, España, Guido, Moore, Sean, Oidtman, Rachel, Perkins, Alex, Ivy, Julie S., Mayorga, Maria E., Mele, Jessica, Rosenstrom, Erik T., Swann, Julie L., Kraus, Andrea, Kraus, David, Bian, Jiang, Cao, Wei, Gao, Zhifeng, Ferres, Juan Lavista, Li, Chaozhuo, Liu, Tie-Yan, Xie, Xing, Zhang, Shun, Zheng, Shun, Chinazzi, Matteo, Vespignani, Alessandro, Xiong, Xinyue, Davis, Jessica T., Mu, Kunpeng, Piontti, Ana Pastore Y, Baek, Jackie, Farias, Vivek, Georgescu, Andreea, Levi, Retsef, Sinha, Deeksha, Wilde, Joshua, Zheng, Andrew, Lami, Omar Skali, Bennouna, Amine, Ndong, David Nze, Perakis, Georgia, Singhvi, Divya, Spantidakis, Ioannis, Thayaparan, Leann, Tsiourvas, Asterios, Weisberg, Shane, Jadbabaie, Ali, Sarker, Arnab, Shah, Devavrat, Celi, Leo A., Penna, Nicolas D., Sundar, Saketh, Berlin, Abraham, Gandhi, Parth D., McAndrew, Thomas, Piriya, Matthew, Chen, Ye, Hlavacek, William, Lin, Yen Ting, Mallela, Abhishek, Miller, Ely, Neumann, Jacob, Posner, Richard, Wolfinger, Russ, Castro, Lauren, Fairchild, Geoffrey, Michaud, Isaac, Osthus, Dave, Wolffram, Daniel, Karlen, Dean, Panaggio, Mark J., Kinsey, Matt, Mullany, Luke C., Rainwater-Lovett, Kaitlin, Shin, Lauren, Tallaksen, Katharine, Wilson, Shelby, Brenner, Michael, Coram, Marc, Edwards, Jessie K., Joshi, Keya, Klein, Ellen, Hulse, Juan Dent, Grantz, Kyra H., Hill, Alison L., Kaminsky, Kathryn, Kaminsky, Joshua, Keegan, Lindsay T., Lauer, Stephen A., Lee, Elizabeth C., Lemaitre, Joseph C., Lessler, Justin, Meredith, Hannah R., Perez-Saez, Javier, Shah, Sam, Smith, Claire P., Truelove, Shaun A., Wills, Josh, Gardner, Lauren, Marshall, Maximilian, Nixon, Kristen, Burant, John C., Budzinski, Jozef, Chiang, Wen-Hao, Mohler, George, Gao, Junyi, Glass, Lucas, Qian, Cheng, Romberg, Justin, Sharma, Rakshith, Spaeder, Jeffrey, Sun, Jimeng, Xiao, Cao, Gao, Lei, Gu, Zhiling, Kim, Myungjin, Li, Xinyi, Wang, Yueying, Wang, Guannan, Wang, Lily, Yu, Shan, Jain, Chaman, Bhatia, Sangeeta, Nouvellet, Pierre, Barber, Ryan, Gaikedu, Emmanuela, Hay, Simon, Lim, Steve, Murray, Chris, Pigott, David, Reiner, Robert C., Baccam, Prasith, Gurung, Heidi L., Stage, Steven A., Suchoski, Bradley T., Fong, Chung-Yan, Yeung, Dit-Yan, Adhikari, Bijaya, Cui, Jiaming, Prakash, B. Aditya, Rodríguez, Alexander, Tabassum, Anika, Xie, Jiajia, Asplund, John, Baxter, Arden, Keskinocak, Pinar, Oruc, Buse Eylul, Serban, Nicoleta, Arik, Sercan O., Dusenberry, Mike, Epshteyn, Arkady, Kanal, Elli, Le, Long T., Li, Chun-Liang, Pfister, Tomas, Sinha, Rajarishi, Tsai, Thomas, Yoder, Nate, Yoon, Jinsung, Zhang, Leyou, Wilson, Daniel, Belov, Artur A., Chow, Carson C., Gerkin, Richard C., Yogurtcu, Osman N., Ibrahim, Mark, Lacroix, Timothee, Le, Matthew, Liao, Jason, Nickel, Maximilian, Sagun, Levent, Abbott, Sam, Bosse, Nikos I., Funk, Sebastian, Hellewell, Joel, Meakin, Sophie R., Sherratt, Katharine, Kalantari, Rahi, Zhou, Mingyuan, Karimzadeh, Morteza, Lucas, Benjamin, Ngo, Thoai, Zoraghein, Hamidreza, Vahedi, Behzad, Wang, Zhongying, Pei, Sen, Shaman, Jeffrey, Yamana, Teresa K., Bertsimas, Dimitris, Li, Michael L., Soni, Saksham, Bouardi, Hamza Tazi, Adee, Madeline, Ayer, Turgay, Chhatwal, Jagpreet, Dalgic, Ozden O., Ladd, Mary A., Linas, Benjamin P., Mueller, Peter, Xiao, Jade, Bosch, Jurgen, Wilson, Austin, Zimmerman, Peter, Wang, Qinxia, Wang, Yuanjia, Xie, Shanghong, Zeng, Donglin, Bien, Jacob, Brooks, Logan, Green, Alden, Hu, Addison J., Jahja, Maria, McDonald, Daniel, Narasimhan, Balasubramanian, Politsch, Collin, Rajanala, Samyak, Rumack, Aaron, Simon, Noah, Tibshirani, Ryan J., Tibshirani, Rob, Ventura, Valerie, Wasserman, Larry, Drake, John M., O’Dea, Eamon B., Abu-Mostafa, Yaser, Bathwal, Rahil, Chang, Nicholas A., Chitta, Pavan, Erickson, Anne, Goel, Sumit, Gowda, Jethin, Jin, Qixuan, Jo, HyeongChan, Kim, Juhyun, Kulkarni, Pranav, Lushtak, Samuel M., Mann, Ethan, Popken, Max, Soohoo, Connor, Tirumala, Kushal, Tseng, Albert, Varadarajan, Vignesh, Vytheeswaran, Jagath, Wang, Christopher, Yeluri, Akshay, Yurk, Dominic, Zhang, Michael, Zlokapa, Alexander, Pagano, Robert, Jain, Chandini, Tomar, Vishal, Ho, Lam, Huynh, Huong, Tran, Quoc, Lopez, Velma K., Walker, Jo W., Slayton, Rachel B., Johansson, Michael A., and Biggerstaff, Matthew

Subjects
ddc:510, Mathematics
Abstract

Academic researchers, government agencies, industry groups, and individuals have produced forecasts at an unprecedented scale during the COVID-19 pandemic. To leverage these forecasts, the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) partnered with an academic research lab at the University of Massachusetts Amherst to create the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub. Launched in April 2020, the Forecast Hub is a dataset with point and probabilistic forecasts of incident cases, incident hospitalizations, incident deaths, and cumulative deaths due to COVID-19 at county, state, and national, levels in the United States. Included forecasts represent a variety of modeling approaches, data sources, and assumptions regarding the spread of COVID-19. The goal of this dataset is to establish a standardized and comparable set of short-term forecasts from modeling teams. These data can be used to develop ensemble models, communicate forecasts to the public, create visualizations, compare models, and inform policies regarding COVID-19 mitigation. These open-source data are available via download from GitHub, through an online API, and through R packages.

Published
2022

16. Trade-offs between individual and ensemble forecasts of an emerging infectious disease

Author

Oidtman, Rachel J, primary, Omodei, Elisa, additional, Kraemer, Moritz U. G., additional, Casteneda-Orjuela, Carlos A., additional, Cruz-Rivera, Erica, additional, Misnaza-Castrillon, Sandra, additional, Cifuentes, Myriam Patricia, additional, Rincon, Luz Emilse, additional, Canon, Viviana, additional, de Alarcon, Pedro, additional, Espana, Guido, additional, Huber, John H, additional, Hill, Sarah C., additional, Barker, Christopher M., additional, Johansson, Michael A., additional, Manore, Carrie A., additional, Reiner, Robert C., additional, Rodriguez-Barraquer, Isabel, additional, Siraj, Amir S., additional, Frias-Martinez, Enrique, additional, Garcia-Herranz, Manuel, additional, and Perkins, Alex, additional

Published
2021
Full Text
View/download PDF

17. Evaluation of individual and ensemble probabilistic forecasts of COVID-19 mortality in the US

Author

Cramer, Estee Y, primary, Ray, Evan L, additional, Lopez, Velma K, additional, Bracher, Johannes, additional, Brennen, Andrea, additional, Castro Rivadeneira, Alvaro J, additional, Gerding, Aaron, additional, Gneiting, Tilmann, additional, House, Katie H, additional, Huang, Yuxin, additional, Jayawardena, Dasuni, additional, Kanji, Abdul H, additional, Khandelwal, Ayush, additional, Le, Khoa, additional, Mühlemann, Anja, additional, Niemi, Jarad, additional, Shah, Apurv, additional, Stark, Ariane, additional, Wang, Yijin, additional, Wattanachit, Nutcha, additional, Zorn, Martha W, additional, Gu, Youyang, additional, Jain, Sansiddh, additional, Bannur, Nayana, additional, Deva, Ayush, additional, Kulkarni, Mihir, additional, Merugu, Srujana, additional, Raval, Alpan, additional, Shingi, Siddhant, additional, Tiwari, Avtansh, additional, White, Jerome, additional, Abernethy, Neil F, additional, Woody, Spencer, additional, Dahan, Maytal, additional, Fox, Spencer, additional, Gaither, Kelly, additional, Lachmann, Michael, additional, Meyers, Lauren Ancel, additional, Scott, James G, additional, Tec, Mauricio, additional, Srivastava, Ajitesh, additional, George, Glover E, additional, Cegan, Jeffrey C, additional, Dettwiller, Ian D, additional, England, William P, additional, Farthing, Matthew W, additional, Hunter, Robert H, additional, Lafferty, Brandon, additional, Linkov, Igor, additional, Mayo, Michael L, additional, Parno, Matthew D, additional, Rowland, Michael A, additional, Trump, Benjamin D, additional, Zhang-James, Yanli, additional, Chen, Samuel, additional, Faraone, Stephen V, additional, Hess, Jonathan, additional, Morley, Christopher P, additional, Salekin, Asif, additional, Wang, Dongliang, additional, Corsetti, Sabrina M, additional, Baer, Thomas M, additional, Eisenberg, Marisa C, additional, Falb, Karl, additional, Huang, Yitao, additional, Martin, Emily T, additional, McCauley, Ella, additional, Myers, Robert L, additional, Schwarz, Tom, additional, Sheldon, Daniel, additional, Gibson, Graham Casey, additional, Yu, Rose, additional, Gao, Liyao, additional, Ma, Yian, additional, Wu, Dongxia, additional, Yan, Xifeng, additional, Jin, Xiaoyong, additional, Wang, Yu-Xiang, additional, Chen, YangQuan, additional, Guo, Lihong, additional, Zhao, Yanting, additional, Gu, Quanquan, additional, Chen, Jinghui, additional, Wang, Lingxiao, additional, Xu, Pan, additional, Zhang, Weitong, additional, Zou, Difan, additional, Biegel, Hannah, additional, Lega, Joceline, additional, McConnell, Steve, additional, Nagraj, VP, additional, Guertin, Stephanie L, additional, Hulme-Lowe, Christopher, additional, Turner, Stephen D, additional, Shi, Yunfeng, additional, Ban, Xuegang, additional, Walraven, Robert, additional, Hong, Qi-Jun, additional, Kong, Stanley, additional, van de Walle, Axel, additional, Turtle, James A, additional, Ben-Nun, Michal, additional, Riley, Steven, additional, Riley, Pete, additional, Koyluoglu, Ugur, additional, DesRoches, David, additional, Forli, Pedro, additional, Hamory, Bruce, additional, Kyriakides, Christina, additional, Leis, Helen, additional, Milliken, John, additional, Moloney, Michael, additional, Morgan, James, additional, Nirgudkar, Ninad, additional, Ozcan, Gokce, additional, Piwonka, Noah, additional, Ravi, Matt, additional, Schrader, Chris, additional, Shakhnovich, Elizabeth, additional, Siegel, Daniel, additional, Spatz, Ryan, additional, Stiefeling, Chris, additional, Wilkinson, Barrie, additional, Wong, Alexander, additional, Cavany, Sean, additional, España, Guido, additional, Moore, Sean, additional, Oidtman, Rachel, additional, Perkins, Alex, additional, Kraus, David, additional, Kraus, Andrea, additional, Gao, Zhifeng, additional, Bian, Jiang, additional, Cao, Wei, additional, Ferres, Juan Lavista, additional, Li, Chaozhuo, additional, Liu, Tie-Yan, additional, Xie, Xing, additional, Zhang, Shun, additional, Zheng, Shun, additional, Vespignani, Alessandro, additional, Chinazzi, Matteo, additional, Davis, Jessica T, additional, Mu, Kunpeng, additional, y Piontti, Ana Pastore, additional, Xiong, Xinyue, additional, Zheng, Andrew, additional, Baek, Jackie, additional, Farias, Vivek, additional, Georgescu, Andreea, additional, Levi, Retsef, additional, Sinha, Deeksha, additional, Wilde, Joshua, additional, Perakis, Georgia, additional, Bennouna, Mohammed Amine, additional, Nze-Ndong, David, additional, Singhvi, Divya, additional, Spantidakis, Ioannis, additional, Thayaparan, Leann, additional, Tsiourvas, Asterios, additional, Sarker, Arnab, additional, Jadbabaie, Ali, additional, Shah, Devavrat, additional, Penna, Nicolas Della, additional, Celi, Leo A, additional, Sundar, Saketh, additional, Wolfinger, Russ, additional, Osthus, Dave, additional, Castro, Lauren, additional, Fairchild, Geoffrey, additional, Michaud, Isaac, additional, Karlen, Dean, additional, Kinsey, Matt, additional, Mullany, Luke C., additional, Rainwater-Lovett, Kaitlin, additional, Shin, Lauren, additional, Tallaksen, Katharine, additional, Wilson, Shelby, additional, Lee, Elizabeth C, additional, Dent, Juan, additional, Grantz, Kyra H, additional, Hill, Alison L, additional, Kaminsky, Joshua, additional, Kaminsky, Kathryn, additional, Keegan, Lindsay T, additional, Lauer, Stephen A, additional, Lemaitre, Joseph C, additional, Lessler, Justin, additional, Meredith, Hannah R, additional, Perez-Saez, Javier, additional, Shah, Sam, additional, Smith, Claire P, additional, Truelove, Shaun A, additional, Wills, Josh, additional, Marshall, Maximilian, additional, Gardner, Lauren, additional, Nixon, Kristen, additional, Burant, John C., additional, Wang, Lily, additional, Gao, Lei, additional, Gu, Zhiling, additional, Kim, Myungjin, additional, Li, Xinyi, additional, Wang, Guannan, additional, Wang, Yueying, additional, Yu, Shan, additional, Reiner, Robert C, additional, Barber, Ryan, additional, Gakidou, Emmanuela, additional, Hay, Simon I., additional, Lim, Steve, additional, Murray, Chris J.L., additional, Pigott, David, additional, Gurung, Heidi L, additional, Baccam, Prasith, additional, Stage, Steven A, additional, Suchoski, Bradley T, additional, Prakash, B. Aditya, additional, Adhikari, Bijaya, additional, Cui, Jiaming, additional, Rodríguez, Alexander, additional, Tabassum, Anika, additional, Xie, Jiajia, additional, Keskinocak, Pinar, additional, Asplund, John, additional, Baxter, Arden, additional, Oruc, Buse Eylul, additional, Serban, Nicoleta, additional, Arik, Sercan O, additional, Dusenberry, Mike, additional, Epshteyn, Arkady, additional, Kanal, Elli, additional, Le, Long T, additional, Li, Chun-Liang, additional, Pfister, Tomas, additional, Sava, Dario, additional, Sinha, Rajarishi, additional, Tsai, Thomas, additional, Yoder, Nate, additional, Yoon, Jinsung, additional, Zhang, Leyou, additional, Abbott, Sam, additional, Bosse, Nikos I, additional, Funk, Sebastian, additional, Hellewell, Joel, additional, Meakin, Sophie R, additional, Sherratt, Katharine, additional, Zhou, Mingyuan, additional, Kalantari, Rahi, additional, Yamana, Teresa K, additional, Pei, Sen, additional, Shaman, Jeffrey, additional, Li, Michael L, additional, Bertsimas, Dimitris, additional, Lami, Omar Skali, additional, Soni, Saksham, additional, Bouardi, Hamza Tazi, additional, Ayer, Turgay, additional, Adee, Madeline, additional, Chhatwal, Jagpreet, additional, Dalgic, Ozden O, additional, Ladd, Mary A, additional, Linas, Benjamin P, additional, Mueller, Peter, additional, Xiao, Jade, additional, Wang, Yuanjia, additional, Wang, Qinxia, additional, Xie, Shanghong, additional, Zeng, Donglin, additional, Green, Alden, additional, Bien, Jacob, additional, Brooks, Logan, additional, Hu, Addison J, additional, Jahja, Maria, additional, McDonald, Daniel, additional, Narasimhan, Balasubramanian, additional, Politsch, Collin, additional, Rajanala, Samyak, additional, Rumack, Aaron, additional, Simon, Noah, additional, Tibshirani, Ryan J, additional, Tibshirani, Rob, additional, Ventura, Valerie, additional, Wasserman, Larry, additional, O’Dea, Eamon B, additional, Drake, John M, additional, Pagano, Robert, additional, Tran, Quoc T, additional, Tung Ho, Lam Si, additional, Huynh, Huong, additional, Walker, Jo W, additional, Slayton, Rachel B, additional, Johansson, Michael A, additional, Biggerstaff, Matthew, additional, and Reich, Nicholas G, additional

Published
2021
Full Text
View/download PDF

18. COVID-19 reopening strategies at the county level in the face of uncertainty: Multiple Models for Outbreak Decision Support

Author

Shea, Katriona, primary, Borchering, Rebecca K., additional, Probert, William J.M., additional, Howerton, Emily, additional, Bogich, Tiffany L., additional, Li, Shouli, additional, van Panhuis, Willem G., additional, Viboud, Cecile, additional, Aguás, Ricardo, additional, Belov, Artur, additional, Bhargava, Sanjana H., additional, Cavany, Sean, additional, Chang, Joshua C., additional, Chen, Cynthia, additional, Chen, Jinghui, additional, Chen, Shi, additional, Chen, YangQuan, additional, Childs, Lauren M., additional, Chow, Carson C., additional, Crooker, Isabel, additional, Del Valle, Sara Y., additional, España, Guido, additional, Fairchild, Geoffrey, additional, Gerkin, Richard C., additional, Germann, Timothy C., additional, Gu, Quanquan, additional, Guan, Xiangyang, additional, Guo, Lihong, additional, Hart, Gregory R., additional, Hladish, Thomas J., additional, Hupert, Nathaniel, additional, Janies, Daniel, additional, Kerr, Cliff C., additional, Klein, Daniel J., additional, Klein, Eili, additional, Lin, Gary, additional, Manore, Carrie, additional, Meyers, Lauren Ancel, additional, Mittler, John, additional, Mu, Kunpeng, additional, Núñez, Rafael C., additional, Oidtman, Rachel, additional, Pasco, Remy, additional, Piontti, Ana Pastore y, additional, Paul, Rajib, additional, Pearson, Carl A. B., additional, Perdomo, Dianela R., additional, Perkins, T Alex, additional, Pierce, Kelly, additional, Pillai, Alexander N., additional, Rael, Rosalyn Cherie, additional, Rosenfeld, Katherine, additional, Ross, Chrysm Watson, additional, Spencer, Julie A., additional, Stoltzfus, Arlin B., additional, Toh, Kok Ben, additional, Vattikuti, Shashaank, additional, Vespignani, Alessandro, additional, Wang, Lingxiao, additional, White, Lisa, additional, Xu, Pan, additional, Yang, Yupeng, additional, Yogurtcu, Osman N., additional, Zhang, Weitong, additional, Zhao, Yanting, additional, Zou, Difan, additional, Ferrari, Matthew, additional, Pannell, David, additional, Tildesley, Michael, additional, Seifarth, Jack, additional, Johnson, Elyse, additional, Biggerstaff, Matthew, additional, Johansson, Michael, additional, Slayton, Rachel B., additional, Levander, John, additional, Stazer, Jeff, additional, Salerno, Jessica, additional, and Runge, Michael C., additional

Published
2020
Full Text
View/download PDF

21. Lying in wait: the resurgence of dengue virus after the Zika epidemic in Brazil

Author

Brito, Anderson Fernandes, primary, Machado, Lais Ceschini, additional, Siconelli, Márcio Junio Lima, additional, Oidtman, Rachel J., additional, Fauver, Joseph R., additional, de Oliveira Carvalho, Rodrigo Dias, additional, Dezordi, Filipe Zimmer, additional, Pereira, Mylena Ribeiro, additional, de Castro-Jorge, Luiza Antunes, additional, Minto, Elaine Cristina Manini, additional, Passos, Luzia Márcia Romanholi, additional, Kalinich, Chaney C., additional, Petrone, Mary E., additional, Allen, Emma, additional, España, Guido Camargo, additional, Huang, Angkana T., additional, Cummings, Derek A. T., additional, Baele, Guy, additional, Franca, Rafael Freitas Oliveira, additional, Perkins, T. Alex, additional, da Fonseca, Benedito Antônio Lopes, additional, Wallau, Gabriel Luz, additional, and Grubaugh, Nathan D., additional

Published
2020
Full Text
View/download PDF

27. Pokémon Go and Exposure to Mosquito-Borne Diseases: How Not to Catch ‘Em All

Author

Oidtman, Rachel, Christofferson, Rebecca C., ten Bosch, Q.A., España, Guido, Kraemer, Moritz U.G., Tatem, Andrew, Barker, Christopher M., and Perkins, T.A.

Subjects
Life Science
Abstract

Pokémon Go is a new game that encourages players to venture outdoors and interact with others in the pursuit of virtual Pokémon characters. With more time spent outdoors overall and in sometimes large congregations, Pokémon Go players could inadvertently elevate their risk of exposure to mosquito-borne diseases when playing in certain areas at certain times of year. Here, we make an initial assessment of the possible scope of this concern in the continental United States, which experiences its highest seasonal transmission of West Nile, Zika, and other viruses during summer and early fall. In particular, we propose that the times of day when many disease-relevant mosquito species are most likely to engage in blood feeding coincide with times of day when Pokémon Go activity is likely to be high, and we note that locations serving as hubs of Pokémon Go activity may in some cases overlap with areas where these mosquitoes are actively engaged in blood feeding. Although the risk of mosquito-borne diseases in the continental U.S. is low overall and is unlikely to be impacted significantly by Pokémon Go, it is nonetheless important for Pokémon Go players and others who spend time outdoors engaging in activities such as barbecues and gardening to be aware of these ongoing risks and to take appropriate preventative measures in light of the potential for outdoor activity to modify individual-level risk of exposure. As Pokémon Go and other augmented reality games become available in other parts of the world, similar risks should be assessed in a manner that is consistent with the local epidemiology of mosquito-borne diseases in those areas.

Published
2016

30. Evaluation of individual and ensemble probabilistic forecasts of COVID-19 mortality in the United States

Author

Estee Y. Cramer, Evan L. Ray, Velma K. Lopez, Johannes Bracher, Andrea Brennen, Alvaro J. Castro Rivadeneira, Aaron Gerding, Tilmann Gneiting, Katie H. House, Yuxin Huang, Dasuni Jayawardena, Abdul H. Kanji, Ayush Khandelwal, Khoa Le, Anja Mühlemann, Jarad Niemi, Apurv Shah, Ariane Stark, Yijin Wang, Nutcha Wattanachit, Martha W. Zorn, Youyang Gu, Sansiddh Jain, Nayana Bannur, Ayush Deva, Mihir Kulkarni, Srujana Merugu, Alpan Raval, Siddhant Shingi, Avtansh Tiwari, Jerome White, Neil F. Abernethy, Spencer Woody, Maytal Dahan, Spencer Fox, Kelly Gaither, Michael Lachmann, Lauren Ancel Meyers, James G. Scott, Mauricio Tec, Ajitesh Srivastava, Glover E. George, Jeffrey C. Cegan, Ian D. Dettwiller, William P. England, Matthew W. Farthing, Robert H. Hunter, Brandon Lafferty, Igor Linkov, Michael L. Mayo, Matthew D. Parno, Michael A. Rowland, Benjamin D. Trump, Yanli Zhang-James, Samuel Chen, Stephen V. Faraone, Jonathan Hess, Christopher P. Morley, Asif Salekin, Dongliang Wang, Sabrina M. Corsetti, Thomas M. Baer, Marisa C. Eisenberg, Karl Falb, Yitao Huang, Emily T. Martin, Ella McCauley, Robert L. Myers, Tom Schwarz, Daniel Sheldon, Graham Casey Gibson, Rose Yu, Liyao Gao, Yian Ma, Dongxia Wu, Xifeng Yan, Xiaoyong Jin, Yu-Xiang Wang, YangQuan Chen, Lihong Guo, Yanting Zhao, Quanquan Gu, Jinghui Chen, Lingxiao Wang, Pan Xu, Weitong Zhang, Difan Zou, Hannah Biegel, Joceline Lega, Steve McConnell, V. P. Nagraj, Stephanie L. Guertin, Christopher Hulme-Lowe, Stephen D. Turner, Yunfeng Shi, Xuegang Ban, Robert Walraven, Qi-Jun Hong, Stanley Kong, Axel van de Walle, James A. Turtle, Michal Ben-Nun, Steven Riley, Pete Riley, Ugur Koyluoglu, David DesRoches, Pedro Forli, Bruce Hamory, Christina Kyriakides, Helen Leis, John Milliken, Michael Moloney, James Morgan, Ninad Nirgudkar, Gokce Ozcan, Noah Piwonka, Matt Ravi, Chris Schrader, Elizabeth Shakhnovich, Daniel Siegel, Ryan Spatz, Chris Stiefeling, Barrie Wilkinson, Alexander Wong, Sean Cavany, Guido España, Sean Moore, Rachel Oidtman, Alex Perkins, David Kraus, Andrea Kraus, Zhifeng Gao, Jiang Bian, Wei Cao, Juan Lavista Ferres, Chaozhuo Li, Tie-Yan Liu, Xing Xie, Shun Zhang, Shun Zheng, Alessandro Vespignani, Matteo Chinazzi, Jessica T. Davis, Kunpeng Mu, Ana Pastore y Piontti, Xinyue Xiong, Andrew Zheng, Jackie Baek, Vivek Farias, Andreea Georgescu, Retsef Levi, Deeksha Sinha, Joshua Wilde, Georgia Perakis, Mohammed Amine Bennouna, David Nze-Ndong, Divya Singhvi, Ioannis Spantidakis, Leann Thayaparan, Asterios Tsiourvas, Arnab Sarker, Ali Jadbabaie, Devavrat Shah, Nicolas Della Penna, Leo A. Celi, Saketh Sundar, Russ Wolfinger, Dave Osthus, Lauren Castro, Geoffrey Fairchild, Isaac Michaud, Dean Karlen, Matt Kinsey, Luke C. Mullany, Kaitlin Rainwater-Lovett, Lauren Shin, Katharine Tallaksen, Shelby Wilson, Elizabeth C. Lee, Juan Dent, Kyra H. Grantz, Alison L. Hill, Joshua Kaminsky, Kathryn Kaminsky, Lindsay T. Keegan, Stephen A. Lauer, Joseph C. Lemaitre, Justin Lessler, Hannah R. Meredith, Javier Perez-Saez, Sam Shah, Claire P. Smith, Shaun A. Truelove, Josh Wills, Maximilian Marshall, Lauren Gardner, Kristen Nixon, John C. Burant, Lily Wang, Lei Gao, Zhiling Gu, Myungjin Kim, Xinyi Li, Guannan Wang, Yueying Wang, Shan Yu, Robert C. Reiner, Ryan Barber, Emmanuela Gakidou, Simon I. Hay, Steve Lim, Chris Murray, David Pigott, Heidi L. Gurung, Prasith Baccam, Steven A. Stage, Bradley T. Suchoski, B. Aditya Prakash, Bijaya Adhikari, Jiaming Cui, Alexander Rodríguez, Anika Tabassum, Jiajia Xie, Pinar Keskinocak, John Asplund, Arden Baxter, Buse Eylul Oruc, Nicoleta Serban, Sercan O. Arik, Mike Dusenberry, Arkady Epshteyn, Elli Kanal, Long T. Le, Chun-Liang Li, Tomas Pfister, Dario Sava, Rajarishi Sinha, Thomas Tsai, Nate Yoder, Jinsung Yoon, Leyou Zhang, Sam Abbott, Nikos I. Bosse, Sebastian Funk, Joel Hellewell, Sophie R. Meakin, Katharine Sherratt, Mingyuan Zhou, Rahi Kalantari, Teresa K. Yamana, Sen Pei, Jeffrey Shaman, Michael L. Li, Dimitris Bertsimas, Omar Skali Lami, Saksham Soni, Hamza Tazi Bouardi, Turgay Ayer, Madeline Adee, Jagpreet Chhatwal, Ozden O. Dalgic, Mary A. Ladd, Benjamin P. Linas, Peter Mueller, Jade Xiao, Yuanjia Wang, Qinxia Wang, Shanghong Xie, Donglin Zeng, Alden Green, Jacob Bien, Logan Brooks, Addison J. Hu, Maria Jahja, Daniel McDonald, Balasubramanian Narasimhan, Collin Politsch, Samyak Rajanala, Aaron Rumack, Noah Simon, Ryan J. Tibshirani, Rob Tibshirani, Valerie Ventura, Larry Wasserman, Eamon B. O’Dea, John M. Drake, Robert Pagano, Quoc T. Tran, Lam Si Tung Ho, Huong Huynh, Jo W. Walker, Rachel B. Slayton, Michael A. Johansson, Matthew Biggerstaff, Nicholas G. Reich, Cramer, Estee Y [0000-0003-1373-3177], Ray, Evan L [0000-0003-4035-0243], Lopez, Velma K [0000-0003-2926-4010], Bracher, Johannes [0000-0002-3777-1410], Gneiting, Tilmann [0000-0001-9397-3271], Niemi, Jarad [0000-0002-5079-158X], White, Jerome [0000-0003-4148-8834], Woody, Spencer [0000-0002-2882-3450], Fox, Spencer [0000-0003-1969-3778], Gaither, Kelly [0000-0002-4272-175X], Meyers, Lauren Ancel [0000-0002-5828-8874], Tec, Mauricio [0000-0002-1853-5842], George, Glover E [0000-0003-4779-8702], Cegan, Jeffrey C [0000-0002-3065-3403], Hunter, Robert H [0000-0002-2382-7938], Lafferty, Brandon [0000-0002-2618-3787], Mayo, Michael L [0000-0001-9014-1859], Rowland, Michael A [0000-0002-6759-8225], Chen, Samuel [0000-0002-1070-9801], Salekin, Asif [0000-0002-0807-8967], Corsetti, Sabrina M [0000-0003-2216-2492], Falb, Karl [0000-0002-3465-3988], Huang, Yitao [0000-0001-7846-2174], Sheldon, Daniel [0000-0002-4257-2432], Guo, Lihong [0000-0003-4804-4005], Gu, Quanquan [0000-0001-9830-793X], Xu, Pan [0000-0002-2559-8622], Lega, Joceline [0000-0003-2064-229X], McConnell, Steve [0000-0002-0294-3737], Turner, Stephen D [0000-0001-9140-9028], Shi, Yunfeng [0000-0003-1700-6049], Walraven, Robert [0000-0002-5755-4325], van de Walle, Axel [0000-0002-3415-1494], Turtle, James A [0000-0003-0735-7769], Ben-Nun, Michal [0000-0002-9164-0008], Riley, Steven [0000-0001-7904-4804], Koyluoglu, Ugur [0000-0002-6286-351X], Cavany, Sean [0000-0002-2559-797X], España, Guido [0000-0002-9915-8056], Moore, Sean [0000-0001-9062-6100], Oidtman, Rachel [0000-0003-1773-9533], Perkins, Alex [0000-0002-7518-4014], Kraus, David [0000-0003-4376-3932], Cao, Wei [0000-0001-5640-0917], Lavista Ferres, Juan [0000-0002-9654-3178], Vespignani, Alessandro [0000-0003-3419-4205], Sinha, Deeksha [0000-0002-9788-728X], Perakis, Georgia [0000-0002-0888-9030], Bennouna, Mohammed Amine [0000-0002-9123-8588], Spantidakis, Ioannis [0000-0002-5149-6320], Tsiourvas, Asterios [0000-0002-2979-6300], Sarker, Arnab [0000-0003-1680-9421], Jadbabaie, Ali [0000-0003-1122-3069], Shah, Devavrat [0000-0003-0737-3259], Celi, Leo A [0000-0001-6712-6626], Osthus, Dave [0000-0002-4681-091X], Fairchild, Geoffrey [0000-0001-5500-8120], Mullany, Luke C [0000-0003-4668-9803], Rainwater-Lovett, Kaitlin [0000-0002-8707-7339], Lee, Elizabeth C [0000-0002-4156-9637], Dent, Juan [0000-0003-3154-0731], Hill, Alison L [0000-0002-6583-3623], Keegan, Lindsay T [0000-0002-8526-3007], Lemaitre, Joseph C [0000-0002-2677-6574], Truelove, Shaun A [0000-0003-0538-0607], Wills, Josh [0000-0001-7285-9349], Gao, Lei [0000-0002-4707-0933], Gu, Zhiling [0000-0002-8052-7608], Yu, Shan [0000-0002-0271-5726], Hay, Simon I [0000-0002-0611-7272], Murray, Chris [0000-0002-4930-9450], Stage, Steven A [0000-0001-5361-6464], Prakash, B Aditya [0000-0002-3252-455X], Rodríguez, Alexander [0000-0002-4313-9913], Xie, Jiajia [0000-0001-6530-2489], Keskinocak, Pinar [0000-0003-2686-546X], Baxter, Arden [0000-0002-6345-2229], Oruc, Buse Eylul [0000-0003-2431-3864], Sinha, Rajarishi [0000-0001-9157-674X], Yoder, Nate [0000-0003-4153-4722], Zhang, Leyou [0000-0002-2454-0082], Funk, Sebastian [0000-0002-2842-3406], Meakin, Sophie R [0000-0002-6385-2652], Sherratt, Katharine [0000-0003-2049-3423], Yamana, Teresa K [0000-0001-8349-3151], Pei, Sen [0000-0002-7072-2995], Shaman, Jeffrey [0000-0002-7216-7809], Li, Michael L [0000-0002-2456-4834], Bertsimas, Dimitris [0000-0002-1985-1003], Skali Lami, Omar [0000-0002-8208-3035], Soni, Saksham [0000-0002-8898-5726], Tazi Bouardi, Hamza [0000-0002-7871-325X], Wang, Yuanjia [0000-0002-1510-3315], McDonald, Daniel [0000-0002-0443-4282], Politsch, Collin [0000-0003-3727-9167], Rajanala, Samyak [0000-0002-5791-3789], Rumack, Aaron [0000-0002-9181-1794], Tibshirani, Ryan J [0000-0002-2158-8304], Drake, John M [0000-0003-4646-1235], Ho, Lam Si Tung [0000-0002-0453-8444], Slayton, Rachel B [0000-0003-4699-8040], Johansson, Michael A [0000-0002-5090-7722], Biggerstaff, Matthew [0000-0001-5108-8311], Reich, Nicholas G [0000-0003-3503-9899], and Apollo - University of Cambridge Repository

Subjects
model evaluation, Multidisciplinary, COVID-19, prediction, United States, Data Accuracy, 510 Mathematics, 360 Social problems & social services, weather, Humans, Public Health, ddc:510, ensemble forecast, Pandemics, Mathematics, Forecasting, Probability
Abstract

Short-term probabilistic forecasts of the trajectory of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States have served as a visible and important communication channel between the scientific modeling community and both the general public and decision-makers. Forecasting models provide specific, quantitative, and evaluable predictions that inform short-term decisions such as healthcare staffing needs, school closures, and allocation of medical supplies. Starting in April 2020, the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub ( https://covid19forecasthub.org/ ) collected, disseminated, and synthesized tens of millions of specific predictions from more than 90 different academic, industry, and independent research groups. A multimodel ensemble forecast that combined predictions from dozens of groups every week provided the most consistently accurate probabilistic forecasts of incident deaths due to COVID-19 at the state and national level from April 2020 through October 2021. The performance of 27 individual models that submitted complete forecasts of COVID-19 deaths consistently throughout this year showed high variability in forecast skill across time, geospatial units, and forecast horizons. Two-thirds of the models evaluated showed better accuracy than a naïve baseline model. Forecast accuracy degraded as models made predictions further into the future, with probabilistic error at a 20-wk horizon three to five times larger than when predicting at a 1-wk horizon. This project underscores the role that collaboration and active coordination between governmental public-health agencies, academic modeling teams, and industry partners can play in developing modern modeling capabilities to support local, state, and federal response to outbreaks.

Published
2022
Full Text
View/download PDF

31. COVID-19 reopening strategies at the county level in the face of uncertainty: Multiple Models for Outbreak Decision Support.

Author

Shea K, Borchering RK, Probert WJM, Howerton E, Bogich TL, Li S, van Panhuis WG, Viboud C, Aguás R, Belov A, Bhargava SH, Cavany S, Chang JC, Chen C, Chen J, Chen S, Chen Y, Childs LM, Chow CC, Crooker I, Valle SYD, España G, Fairchild G, Gerkin RC, Germann TC, Gu Q, Guan X, Guo L, Hart GR, Hladish TJ, Hupert N, Janies D, Kerr CC, Klein DJ, Klein E, Lin G, Manore C, Meyers LA, Mittler J, Mu K, Núñez RC, Oidtman R, Pasco R, Piontti APY, Paul R, Pearson CAB, Perdomo DR, Perkins TA, Pierce K, Pillai AN, Rael RC, Rosenfeld K, Ross CW, Spencer JA, Stoltzfus AB, Toh KB, Vattikuti S, Vespignani A, Wang L, White L, Xu P, Yang Y, Yogurtcu ON, Zhang W, Zhao Y, Zou D, Ferrari M, Pannell D, Tildesley M, Seifarth J, Johnson E, Biggerstaff M, Johansson M, Slayton RB, Levander J, Stazer J, Salerno J, and Runge MC

Abstract

Policymakers make decisions about COVID-19 management in the face of considerable uncertainty. We convened multiple modeling teams to evaluate reopening strategies for a mid-sized county in the United States, in a novel process designed to fully express scientific uncertainty while reducing linguistic uncertainty and cognitive biases. For the scenarios considered, the consensus from 17 distinct models was that a second outbreak will occur within 6 months of reopening, unless schools and non-essential workplaces remain closed. Up to half the population could be infected with full workplace reopening; non-essential business closures reduced median cumulative infections by 82%. Intermediate reopening interventions identified no win-win situations; there was a trade-off between public health outcomes and duration of workplace closures. Aggregate results captured twice the uncertainty of individual models, providing a more complete expression of risk for decision-making purposes.

Published
2020
Full Text
View/download PDF

Catalog

Books, media, physical & digital resources
See catalog results