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Highlights • We designed a composite index of urban transport oil vulnerability. • This includes the components of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. • Overall, Hong Kong is found to be less oil vulnerable compared to Brisbane. • Outer urban areas, especially in Brisbane, are more oil vulnerable. • Future research should consider transport, energy and land use vulnerabilities. Abstract The volatility in oil prices has been a major concern to car dependent cities, in particular the period of higher oil prices circa 2005–2015. Higher transport costs could exacerbate transport disadvantage and cause social exclusion, yet the fine scale comparison of the spatial variation of oil vulnerability within cities has not been fully explored to date. This paper studies the comparative experience of spatial urban oil vulnerability within two very different Asia Pacific cities – Brisbane and Hong Kong. Census and journey-to-work data are used to evaluate and map oil vulnerability based on prevailing vulnerability concepts of exposure and sensitivity, with a specific focus on adaptive capacity. A cross-city composite indicator is created to visualise car dependence and oil vulnerability based on various socio-demographic, public and active transport indicators. This study allows direct comparison of the stark contrasts between one Asian and one western city in terms of urban form (dispersed vs. compact) and mode share (transit vs. car based). Both of these cities' urban transport policies are also examined to explain their resulting oil vulnerability. The results show transit-led transport policies and land-use matching with rail and active infrastructure investments which reduce transport oil consumption, and could offer longer term resilience. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Energy security assessment provides a benchmark for policy analysis and identifies the challenges for ensuring energy supplies as well. This paper develops a composite index for assessing the oil supply risk of South Asian countries. The index is based on a comprehensive set of indicators including the ratio of imported oil over GDP, geopolitical risk, market liquidity, GDP per capita, ratio of oil imports over consumption, diversification, oil price volatility, US$ volatility and transportation risk. Results reveal that India is the least oil vulnerable country while Afghanistan and Bangladesh are the most oil vulnerable countries. India's leading score reflects a higher potential to change the oil suppliers while Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, and Nepal have the least score confirming them as the highest supply risk associated countries. Policies such as adopting renewable energy technologies, generating nuclear power, diversifying export sources and cutting down oil subsidies can help reduce the impact of oil supply risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In highly motorised countries, some sectors of the population own and use cars despite struggling to afford their running costs, and so may be particularly vulnerable to motor fuel prices increases, whether market-led or policy-driven. This paper proposes a novel, disaggregated approach to investigating vulnerability to such increases at the household level. We propose a set of indicators of ‘car-related economic stress’ (CRES), based on individual household level expenditure data for the UK, to identify which low-income households spend disproportionately on running motor vehicles, and to assess the depth of their economic stress. By subsequently linking the dataset to local fuel price data, we are able to model the disaggregated price elasticities of car fuel demand. This provides us with an indicator of each household’s adaptive capacity to fuel price increases. The findings show that ‘Low Income, High Cost’ households (LIHC) account for 9% of UK households and have distinct socio-demographic characteristics. Interestingly, they are characterised by very low responses to fuel price increases, which may cause them to compromise on other important areas of their household expenditures. Simulations suggest that a 20% increase in fuel prices would substantially increase the depth, but not the incidence of CRES. Overall, the study sheds light on a sector of the population with high levels of vulnerability to fuel price increases, owing to high exposure, high sensitivity and low adaptive capacity. This raises challenges for social, environmental and resilience policy in the transport sector. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The nexus of transport, energy and household expenditure garnered increasing academic attention during the period of increased oil prices during the decade from 2000 to 2010. Peak oil emerged as a widely discussed ‘storyline’ advocated by a globally connected discourse coalition. This study explores the effects of the peak oil discourse in influencing urban transport policy. Two distinct cases are examined in this paper: high density and public transport dominant Hong Kong; and, low density and car dependent Brisbane. Data was obtained from interviews with stakeholders, public documents and media concerning the period between 2003 and 2015 when oil prices were high. This study combines analytical tools from Kingdon’s multiple streams framework and Hajer’s discourse analysis to assess the effects of the peak oil discourse in Brisbane and Hong Kong. While different urban settings are likely to be major differentiators in the responses of participants from the two cities, higher oil prices have bolstered the voice of ‘affordability’ storylines that have emerged in both cities. Yet only Brisbane exhibited official usage of ‘peak oil’ storylines. Counter storylines are found to have been adopted by opposing discourse coalitions, either focusing on the need to develop and deploy technical solutions which can resolve ‘peak oil’ or to simply ‘wait-and-see’. The framing of the issue of heightened oil prices can be seen as acting as a political catalyst, as evidenced by the rise of fall of the response to ‘peak oil’ and ‘oil vulnerability’ in Brisbane. As oil prices crashed after 2015, the affordability pressure on urban transport also reduced. When oil prices are low, policy makers or interested stakeholders should expect to adapt other storylines that feature climate and economic resilience which promote sustainable transport and measures to reduce oil vulnerability, no matter how car, or oil, dependent a local environment is. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Transformation of the motor vehicle fleet has been an important feature of the world’s peak car phenomenon. Very few urban transport studies have explored such important changes in large urban cities. Using an innovative green vehicle datasets constructed for 2009 and 2014, this paper investigates the ongoing change in urban private vehicle fleet efficiency (VFE) in Brisbane. The spatial patterns of VFE change were examined with social-spatial characteristics of the urban area. The results showed that the social and spatial effect of VFE changes remain uneven over urban space. The inner urban areas have experienced higher level of VFE change, whilst people in the outer and oil vulnerable areas showed a low tendency in shifting to more efficient vehicles. The implication of VFE change for future household vehicle adoption was also evaluated based on a cost-benefit analysis of new vehicle technology costs and expected fuel savings for households that choose a fuel efficient vehicle. The results show that imposing a stronger national fuel economy target in the long term would accelerate evolution of vehicle fleets and oil vulnerability reduction in Brisbane. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The rising cost of fossil fuel is a recognized phenomenon, but its impact at the household level is still widely unknown. Understanding how the socioeconomic impacts of rising fuel prices might be distributed across urban areas is a critical issue that is necessary for sustainable urban transportation planning. This study has refined the vulnerability index for petrol expense rises (VIPER) framework [previously proposed by Dodson and Sipe Urban Stud 44(1):37-62, ()] by incorporating travel survey data to better represent households' car dependence. Through this modified VIPER framework, we seek to understand how the socioeconomic impact of rising fuel costs will be distributed across the greater toronto area. The findings of this research reveal a pattern in the distribution of oil vulnerability that depicts a three-ring configuration: expanding outwards from the lowest oil vulnerability in the urban core (1st ring), followed by the highest oil vulnerability in the city's inner suburbs (2nd ring), and a transition to a lower oil vulnerability in the suburban areas (3rd ring). Such results reveal the need for transportation and land use policy measures that tackle the transportation-related social and economic disadvantages due to high fuel prices in the future. The transportation and land use policy measures referred to in this paper focus on the reduction in private automobile use. Therefore, those measures aimed at mitigating oil vulnerability may also have the environmental benefits of reducing greenhouse gas emissions and preserving greenfields. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights: [•] Concepts of ‘commuter oil vulnerability’ are considered. [•] Four quantitative metrics are developed and applied to a regional case study. [•] Results showed variable geographical and individual level vulnerabilities. [•] Individual circumstances affect vulnerability, even in seeming ‘resilient’ zones. [•] Ultimately, the distribution of oil vulnerability depends on visions of the future. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Exposure risk is assessed based on modeling suitable habitat of large pelagic fish and oil spill scenarios originating at three wells located in the western GM's deep waters. Since the fate of the oil depends on the oceanographic conditions present during the accident, as well as the magnitude and duration of the spill, which are not known a priori, the scenarios used are a statistical representation of the area in which oil spilled from the well could be found, given all possible outcomes. The ecological vulnerability assessment identified a subset of bony fish with low-medium vulnerability and elasmobranchs with medium-high vulnerability. The oiling probability and exposure risk of both bony fish and elasmobranchs hotspots vary by well analyzed. Thus, these results provide essential information for a risk management plan for the assessed species and others with economic or conservation importance distributed in the GM and worldwide. • Tunas and billfishes have a low-medium ecological vulnerability to oil spills. • Sharks and manta rays have a medium-high ecological vulnerability to oil spills. • Tunas are more likely to be affected by spills originating in the northwestern GM. • Elasmobranchs and billfish are likely to be exposed to oil spills originating in the southwestern GM. • A spill's impact will depend on its magnitude and oceanographic conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Australian cities have seen continued long-term growth in private motor vehicle travel that has imposed increasing vehicle energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions. This paper investigates the spatial patterns of vehicle energy consumption on urban areas through an analysis of vehicle travel and of vehicle fleet efficiency in Brisbane, Australia. This is achieved by combining motor vehicle registration records and Australian government's ' Green Vehicle Guide' of vehicle fuel efficiency database. The results of a spatial analysis of the private vehicle trip distances derived from journey to work data and fuel energy consumption associated with the private-owned vehicles decomposed to local areas show that private vehicle energy use tends to increase with increasing distance from the city centre (e.g. central business district). This analysis demonstrates that differences in vehicle trip distances and lower proportions of high-efficiency vehicles in the outer suburbs aggravate vehicle energy consumption in those locations. The paper further compares vehicle energy use results for Brisbane against spatial patterns of suburban socio-economic disadvantage. The paper demonstrates that access to vehicle fleet technology may compound other forms of socio-economic disadvantage and vulnerability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Peak oil is the term used to describe the point at which global oil production will peak and thereafter start to decline. Recognising that transport uses a significant portion of global energy, the shortage of fossil fuel in post peak oil era will pose a global challenge in the transport sector. The paper presents an assessment of international research to illustrate the possible time frame of peak oil. It investigates the key implications of the oil shortage that threaten to render the urban transport system of Australia ineffective. Synthesis of documented research evidence suggests three major implications in the urban transport sector: (1) a reduction of mobility for individuals, (2) an increase of transport disadvantage, and (3) a disruption of urban freight movement. In addition, the paper explores strategies to cope with the devastating effects of the shortage of the fossil fuel in the post peak oil era. A number of strategies to achieve sustainable mobility in the future urban transport system are presented. These strategies are summarised into three main themes: (1) a mode shift to alternate transport modes, (2) an integration of land use and transport planning, and (3) a global technical effort for alternate fuels and vehicles. It is expected that a concerted global effort in this regard can have a far-reaching effect in achieving sustainability in urban transport mobility. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This study quantified and visualised oil vulnerability (OV) across Statistical Local Areas (SLAs) of South East Queensland (SEQ), and its changes between 2001 to 2006, with specific focus on Master Planned Estates (MPEs). A classification chart was developed to categorise different types of OV, and to identify SLAs that showed significant change in their level of OV over the period from 2001 to 2006. Our findings are that non-metropolitan SLAs exhibited significantly higher OV due to: (i) the lack of alternatives to private motor vehicle use; (ii) longer road network distances travelled on average; and (iii) a generally lower socioeconomic status associated with these areas. Metropolitan SLAs had consistently lower OV due to: (i) a shorter average commuting distance; (ii) more comprehensive non-motorised access to public transport; and (iii) a generally higher socioeconomic status. SLAs containing large MPEs also proved to be more vulnerable due to their relatively high automobile dependence, limited non-motorised access to public transportation, and longer average commuting distances. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Oil vulnerability is likely to impact upon one group of citizens - children - in critical ways, since children have borne a special brunt of a car-dependent culture. Children's freedom to explore the city has been curtailed, in large part because of the perceived risks of traffic and 'stranger danger'. Children are over-represented in road fatalities involving cars and pedestrians and cyclists. Children are also subject to chronic conditions associated with inactivity such as obesity. In order to address this situation, advocates of child-friendly cities have suggested measures to increase children's independent mobility (CIM) and encourage children's active transport. In this paper, we argue that there is a conflation of CIM and children's active transport, which perpetuates the separation of children from adults. To take both children's rights and desires seriously, as well as to take into account the concerns of parents, the active transport needs of both groups must be addressed simultaneously. One cost effective and immediately available strategy is to reduce car speeds in order to minimise the damage to all users of active transport. A holistic understanding of urban transport and children shows that reducing speeds produces the co-benefits of increased health and reduced reliance on oil. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Australian cities currently face high levels of oil vulnerability, which is often unevenly distributed, particularly within the middle and outer suburbs of the greater metropolitan areas (Dodson and Sipe, 2006). New urban policies and planning practices are needed to avoid, remedy or mitigate the impacts of oil price rises and create urban resilience (Newman et al. 2009). Whilst the lack of scholarship around oil vulnerability is slowly beginning to be addressed within the Australian urban planning context, an emphasis on the links between urban governance and urban resilience is still largely marginalised despite its acknowledged central role in the quest of urban resilience. Our main point of departure is the re-conceptualisation of oil vulnerability as a planning and governance deficit within Australian cities. We identify a number of gaps that combine to inhibit the capacity for the development of urban resilience in the face of oil vulnerability and depletion scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Australia's cities, and in particular the suburban areas, are car dependent and vulnerable to higher oil prices. This paper examines the policy and planning responses to this emerging problem. It does this by reviewing relevant plans and policies at the local, regional/metro, state and national levels. The analysis suggests that there are a number of contradictions in these plans and policies. There appears to be a vertical disconnection between national policy development and that occurring at the local and metropolitan levels. In addition there is a horizontal disconnection/contradiction between oil vulnerability mitigation and other policy areas, such as transport. At present, policy and planning prescriptions are inadequate to meet the challenges of an oil constrained future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

What is the role of cycling in dispersed cities under Peak Oil? This research sought to appraise the bicycle's mitigating potential in an oil crisis, and to identify the specific ways planners may respond to maximise these effects. An overview of cycling in dispersed cities, focused on US and Australian cities, highlights low bicycle mode shares and low participation rates for women, children and seniors at present. Yet cycling can flourish in suburban settings, with low-density, outer-suburban communities in many European cities having very high bicycle mode shares, and strong participation across all demographic groups. Under a variety of Peak Oil scenarios, the bicycle is shown to play specific roles in supplying local mobility and access to and from mass public transport for longer distance trips. In conjunction with minor urban restructuring and public transport networking, many suburban areas could still function without reliance on large quantities of oil for access and mobility. Planning priorities include cycle network planning, ensuring current infrastructures can meet demand, links to public transport and end-of-trip facilities, and socio-cultural research into suburban bicycle sub-markets to better inform targeted behaviour change interventions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Energy security is receiving increasing attention from governments and scholars at the global and national scale. Petroleum security and rising fuel prices are a challenge for cities whose housing systems are highly dependent on automobile transport. This study assesses transport and socio-tenurial patterns within Australian cities to identify how the combined present and future effects of rising fuel costs, mortgage interest rates and general inflation will be spatially distributed. Using an 'oil vulnerability' assessment methodology based on Australian Census data, the study reveals broad-scale mortgage and oil vulnerability across the outer suburbs of Australian cities. The paper concludes with some observations about spatially equitable policy responses to ameliorate the housing and urban impacts of rising petroleum costs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]