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左派・右派による政治対立を経済政策を巡る対立の構図としてモデル化する理論研究は，政治の政策への影響を考察する上で有益である．本稿では，このような内生的政策決定モデルないしはそれに類似するモデルの日本へ適用可能性を吟味するため，イデオロギーや関連する政策選好の調査データを用いて，西欧・米国との比較分析を行った．具体的には，統計的検定を使って，政党のイデオロギー指標を分析した結果，日本では，自由民主党が右派，民主党，公明党，日本社会党，日本共産党が左派として分類されることを確認した．一方，関連する経済選好については，自由民主党と民主党，自由民主党と公明党との間にそれぞれ有意な差が確認できなかった．これらは他国では確認できなかった日本特有の結果である．また，日本の有権者の支持政党とイデオロギーについて潜在クラスモデルを用いて分析した結果，有権者が5つのグループに大別されることを確認した．そして，有権者のイデオロギーと支持政党の党派性との間に，ある程度一貫性が見られることも確認した．最後に，本稿で得られた分析結果の内生的政策決定のモデル化への含意と，考えるべき今後の課題について提示した．, Representing political conflicts between left- and right-wing ideologies as those over economic policies is useful in evaluating the influence of politics on policies. This study considers whether such a model of endogenous policy formation is applicable to the Japanese economy. Therefore, a comparative study for Japan, Western Europe, and the United States was conducted using survey data of ideologies and preferences of economic policies. According to the results of this study, political parties in Japan have fewer differences in the preferences of economic policies than in other countries. Moreover, Japanese citizens have, to some extent, consistency between their ideologies and policy preferences.

We revisit work that has indicated that the presence and strength of Political Budget Cycles depends on a range of conditioning factors. We focus on the mediating effect of economic development. Our results, based on a sample of up to 67 developing and developed countries over the period 1995 to 2016, indicate that budget cycles emerge in countries with a GDP per capita below a threshold ranging from 21,000 to 25,000 U.S. dollars. To explain this we suggest that GDP per capita may be capturing for the effect of time preference. Specifically, in relatively poorer countries, high discount rates will lead voters to value immediate consumption over the future costs from fiscally irresponsible policies. This goes beyond previous explanations of budget cycles based on voters with short memories who underestimate the costs of expansionary policies, voters with little experience with democracy or voters who are poorly informed about the competence or policy preferences of political candidates., The authors acknowledge financial assistance from projects 2017SGR0558, 2017SGR1301 (Generalitat de Catalunya), project ECO2016-75623-R (Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad), the Instituto de Estudios Fiscales (Madrid), KAKENHI (Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research) project 16K17130 “Theoretical Study on Political Economy for Public Infrastructure and Vertical Fiscal Transfer” and Institute of Economic Research (Hitotsubashi University) / 2018 Joint Usage and Research Center Program “Institutional Differences in Political Budget Cycle”.

Political party preference is a crucial element in the analysis of economics and political science. However, it is often di cult to investigate the dynamic properties of the individual partisanship due to inaccessibility to panel data. This study proposes a Bayesian approach for estimating Markov dynamics of individual-level partisanship with repeated cross-section data in which the history of respondents' choice of favored party cannot be observed. The proposed approach identifies individual heterogeneities that affect transitional patterns of partisanship, and replicates the dynamic patterns of individual partisan mobility. Using the proposed method with American survey data, the study shows that age, education and race significantly influence partisan dynamics among Americans for three decades from 1972.