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The COVID-19 pandemic has thrown the world's economy and trade into disarray, putting international reliance in the limelight. This sparked debate on the durability and resilience of global value chains. In this paper, we construct a 'product riskiness indicator' for 4700 globally traded products based on components such as market concentration, clustering tendencies, network centrality of players, or international substitutability to determine which products are vulnerable to trade shocks at the global level - referred to as 'risky' products. In a second step, bilateral risky product imports are matched to multi-country input-output tables, allowing for an examination of the importance of globally supplied risky products by country and industry. Due to the high percentage of dangerous products in high-tech product categories, higher-tech industries are more vulnerable to supply-chain vulnerabilities. Third, we analyse the GDP impact of reshoring using a "partial global extraction method." Assuming that risky product imports from non-EU27 nations are re-shored to EU27 countries, the EU27 GDP might rise by up to 0.5 percent. Non-EU27 countries suffer as a result of such reshoring activity. This implies that ensuring robust or at least resilient supply networks is also in the interest of the supplier countries and sectors.

Since the 1960s, non-tariff measures (NTMs) have been continuously replacing tariffs as the core element of trade negotiations. In the 21st century, they take centre stage in all EU trade agreements with industrialised and emerging economies. By matching product codes to the rich data of NTM notifications to the World Trade Organization and merging information provided by the Temporary Trade Barriers Database, we provide a valuable open data source for trade policy analysis. Using data for 148 NTM-imposing economies for the period 1995-2019, we describe the evolution of NTMs across countries and sectors, with a special focus on NTMs implemented by the EU. The analysis of our data shows the merits and shortcomings of the WTO’s service in providing transparency of members’ trade policies.

In 2011 the European Union’s free trade agreement with South Korea was considered its most ambitious agreement with any Asian economy. In 2019, however, this distinction was handed over to the EU’s Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) with Japan. With Japan being a top-ten trading partner of the EU, the EPA is of economic and political importance in times of rising protectionism to support rule-based trading principles as well as international standards and sustainability goals. The paper reviews EU-Japan trade structures and the components of the EPA accompanied by a structural gravity estimation that builds on the experiences of the EU-South Korea agreement. Manufacturing industries benefit from reduced duties and application of the same international standards, facilitating approval. The greatest potential for cost reduction through tariff cuts remains in the strongly protected agri-food sector. Given the importance of non-tariff measures in negotiations of the EPA, we consider a counterfactual ‘gold-standard’ scenario, in which the regulatory gap for standard-like non-tariff measures between the EU and Japan closes. General equilibrium results suggest welfare effects for Japan of up to 0.05% of real GDP. Estimated GDP effects for the EU are in the magnitude of 0.01%, however, with marked differences across EU Member States.

Many different approaches and databases have been developed for the evaluation of nontariff measures (NTMs) and free trade agreements (FTAs). This paper is devoted to the EUSouth Korea agreement, which is the first ‘second-generation’ FTA of the EU, addressing a wide array of non-tariff policies. We review the evolution of NTM types applicable to the EU-South Korea trade relationship and the role of NTMs in ex-ante and ex-post analyses of the agreement. Subsequently a structural gravity model is employed to assess the value added of information on different aspects of FTAs and types of NTMs by evaluating their ability to predict the trade effects of the EU-South Korea FTA. Our results show that, when accounting for information on the components common in modern deep trade agreements, no additional trade effect is attributable to the EU-South Korea FTA. The evolution of NTMs differs considerably across indicators used, but trade predictions are hardly affected. Most specifications point towards a negative effect of bilateral differences in the number of technical barriers to trade (TBT) applied and sanitary and phytosanitary measures (SPS) against which trading partners issued complaints at the WTO.

Starting in the 1960s with the Kennedy Round of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), nontariff measures (NTMs) have been replacing tariffs continuously as the core element of trade negotiations. Today they take centre stage in all EU trade agreements with industrialised and emerging economies. By matching product codes to the rich data of NTM notifications to the World Trade Organization and complementary information provided by the Temporary Trade Barriers Database, we provide a valuable open data source for trade policy analysis. Using data for 148 NTM-imposing economies for the period 1995-2019, we describe the evolution of different types of NTMs along countries and sectors, with a special focus on NTMs implemented by the EU. The analysis of our data, paired with comparisons with other sources, shows the merits and shortcomings of the WTO's service in providing transparency over members' trade policies.

Since the beginning of 2017, a paradigm change in international trade policy is observed. While protectionist agendas are on the rise, the EU and Japan signed an Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) on 17 July 2018. It is the EU's most ambitious agreement with any Asian state. The study estimates the effect of the EU-Japan EPA for Austria based on qualitative analysis and a structural gravity model. The model predicts small but positive effects of around 0.01% of GDP for Austria. Highest gains are expected for manufactured goods, particularly in the medium- and high-tech sectors. Seit Anfang des Jahres 2017 vollzieht sich in der internationalen Handelspolitik ein Paradigmenwechsel. Während protektionistische Agenden an Fahrt gewinnen, unterzeichneten die EU und Japan am 17. Juli 2018 ein Wirtschaftspartnerschaftsabkommen (EPA). Es ist das ambitionierteste Abkommen der EU mit einem asiatischen Staat. Die Studie schätzt die Effekte des EU-Japan-EPA für Österreich mithilfe von qualitativen Analysen und einem strukturellen Gravitationsmodell ab. Für Österreich wurde ein kleiner, aber positiver Effekt von rund 0,01% des BIP errechnet. Es wird erwartet, dass vor allem der Fertigungsbereich in Mittel- und High-Tech-Sektoren von diesem Abkommen profitieren wird.

This report offers an extensive analysis of the effects of the EU Single Market. It sheds light on four interrelated aspects: It first reveals the asymmetric economic performance across member countries, which also mirrors structural differences. These differences in economic outcomes are next confronted with measures of the Single Market, economic institutions, changes in demand patterns, industrial turbulence and producer price developments. Next, the changes in value chains are tracked over time, and also put into a global perspective. Eventually, firm level evidence complements the findings. The results are highly relevant for economic policies at the member country and the EU level.

Graph of the month Oil price and exchange rate of the Russian rouble, 2008-2014 (p. 1) Opinion corner Is Jean-Claude Juncker's EUR 315 billion European investment plan the proper answer to the EU's anaemic economic performance? (by Sándor Richter, Roman Römisch and Roman Stöllinger; pp. 2-4) How large should the EU budget be from the new Member States’ perspective? (by Sándor Richter; pp. 5-8) International economic sanctions the case of Iran (by Mahdi Ghodsi and Payam Elhami; pp. 9-13) The input-output table as a network (by Oliver Reiter; pp. 14-18) Recommended reading (p. 19) Statistical Annex Monthly and quarterly statistics for Central, East and Southeast Europe (pp. 20-41)

The global trade slowdown and the public resistance against attempts to stimulate trade through mega-regional trade deals are placing the role of non-tariff measures (NTMs) in the limelight of public discussions. In this paper, we examine the question how different types of non-tariff measures affected global trade during the period 1995-2014. We use information on NTMs notified to the WTO from the Integrated Trade Intelligence Portal (I-TIP), which allows us to differentiate between various NTM types, including technical barriers to trade (TBTs) and sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) measures. The two main contributions of this work are the amendment of the I-TIP database to suit econometric analysis and the estimation of trade effects of NTMs at the HS 6-digit product level for more than 100 countries with a gravity approach. Roughly 60% of all estimates point towards a trade-impeding effect of NTMs. Aggregates by NTM-imposing countries and targeted products suggest that the positive effect on the demand side compensates the negative impact on the surging costs of the supply side for SPS measures. TBTs overall appear to be trade-impeding, in particular for high-income countries in Europe and Central Asia.

The global trade slowdown and the public resistance against attempts to stimulate trade through mega-regional trade deals are placing the role of non-tariff measures (NTMs) in the limelight of public discussions. The authors examine the question of how different types of non-tariff measures affected global trade during the period 1995_2014. They use information on NTMs notified to the World Trade Organization from the Integrated Trade Intelligence Portal (I-TIP), which allows them to differentiate between various NTM types, including technical barriers to trade (TBTs) and sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) measures. They find that roughly 60 per cent of all estimates point towards trade-impeding effects of NTMs. Aggregates by NTM-imposing countries and targeted products suggest that the positive effect on the demand side compensates the negative impact on the surging costs of the supply side for SPS measures. TBTs overall appear to be trade-impeding, in particular for high-income countries in Europe and Central Asia.