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The Arctic is warming twice as fast as the rest of the world, but is intricately connected to it through oceanic and atmospheric circulation. Improved observational networks quantifying these connections and subsequent climate model development are enhancing our ability to describe, model, and predict Arctic climate change and its impact on northern hemisphere weather and climate, including their extremes. These developments have made skilful predictions from a sub-seasonal to a decadal timescale possible. Decadal prediction lies in the middle between short to medium range weather forecasts and global-scale climate change projections, and allows predictions of time-evolving regional climate conditions. These predictions are very relevant to the time period that many communities need in order to plan for the near future and beyond, where adaptation is possible and understandable for a wide range of sectors and new opportunities can be explored.Here, we talk about climate change in the Arctic, and the mechanisms by which it can influence the northern hemisphere weather and climate. We discuss how recent scientific work on understanding these mechanisms can increase predictive skill. We present case studies demonstrating the potential for these outputs to be translated into climate services across the region, providing specific and relevant information for businesses, communities and policy-makers on evolving future conditions and allowing dynamic adaptation. Finally, we look ahead to the next developments in this area, and discuss the scientific requirements for future progression.

Hydrographic data from the Arctic Ocean show that freshwater content in the Lincoln Sea, north of Greenland, increased significantly from 2007 to 2010, slightly lagging changes in the eastern and central Arctic. The anomaly was primarily caused by a decrease in the upper ocean salinity. In 2011 upper ocean salinities in the Lincoln Sea returned to values similar to those prior to 2007. Throughout 2008–2010, the freshest surface waters in the western Lincoln Sea show water mass properties similar to fresh Canada Basin waters north of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago. In the northeastern Lincoln Sea fresh surface waters showed a strong link with those observed in the Makarov Basin near the North Pole. The freshening in the Lincoln Sea was associated with a return of a subsurface Pacific Water temperature signal although this was not as strong as observed in the early 1990s. Comparison of repeat stations from the 2000s with the data from the 1990s at inline image showed an increase of the Atlantic temperature maximum which was associated with the arrival of warmer Atlantic water from the Eurasian Basin. Satellite-derived dynamic ocean topography of winter 2009 showed a ridge extending parallel to the Canadian Archipelago shelf as far as the Lincoln Sea, causing a strong flow toward Nares Strait and likely Fram Strait. The total volume of anomalous freshwater observed in the Lincoln Sea and exported by 2011 was close to inline image, approximately 13% of the total estimated FW increase in the Arctic in 2008.