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Price forecasting plays a vital role in the day-ahead markets. Once sellers and buyers access an accurate price forecasting, managing the economic risk can be conducted appropriately through offering or bidding suitable prices. In networks with high wind power penetration, the electricity price is influenced by wind energy; therefore, price forecasting can be more complicated. This paper proposes a novel hybrid approach for price forecasting of day-ahead markets, with high penetration of wind generators based on Wavelet transform, bivariate Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) method and Radial Basis Function Neural Network (RBFN). To this end, a weighted time series for wind dominated power systems is calculated and added to a bivariate ARIMA model along with the price time series. Moreover, RBFN is applied as a tool to correct the estimation error, and particle swarm optimization (PSO) is used to optimize the structure and adapt the RBFN to the particular training set. This method is evaluated on the Spanish electricity market, which shows the efficiency of this approach. This method has less error compared with other methods especially when it considers the effects of large-scale wind generators. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The uncertainty and variability in electricity market price (EMP) signals and players' behavior, as well as in renewable power generation, especially wind power, pose considerable challenges. Hence, enhancement of forecasting approaches is required for all electricity market players to deal with the non-stationary and stochastic nature of such time series, making it possible to accurately support their decisions in a competitive environment with lower forecasting error and with an acceptable computational time. As previously published methodologies have shown, hybrid approaches are good candidates to overcome most of the previous concerns about time-series forecasting. In this sense, this paper proposes an enhanced hybrid approach composed of an innovative combination of wavelet transform (WT), differential evolutionary particle swarm optimization (DEEPSO), and an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) to forecast EMP signals in different electricity markets and wind power in Portugal, in the short-term, considering only historical data. Test results are provided by comparing with other reported studies, demonstrating the proficiency of the proposed hybrid approach in a real environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The residential sector is one of the sectors with the highest rates of electricity consumption worldwide. For years, many studies have been presented in order to minimize energy consumption at the residential level. The idea of such studies is that the residential customer (RC) is the interested party of their own consumption. Moreover, the algorithms that have been developed to predict and manage the energy consumption, also analyze the behavior of the loads, with the objective of minimizing the energy costs, with good safety, robustness, and comfort levels. In the context of the smart house (SH), one of the objectives of smart grids (SGs) is to enable the RC, with home energy management systems (HEM), to actively participate, allowing for higher reliability at different levels. In this work, a new model that simulates the behavior of an SH, considering heating, ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) and sanitarian water heater (SWH) devices, is presented. For this purpose, the proposed model considers realistic physical parameters of the SH, together with customer comfort, in order to mitigate the RC disinterest. The proposed model considers the electric vehicle (EV), a battery-based energy storage system (ESS), a micro production unit, and different types of tariffs that the RC might choose, aiming to maximize the benefits, and temporarily shifting the proposed loads. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, there have been notable commitments and obligations by the electricity sector for more sustainable generation and delivery processes to reduce the environmental footprint. However, there is still a long way to go to achieve necessary sustainability goals while ensuring standards of robustness and the quality of power grids. One of the main challenges hindering this progress are uncertainties and stochasticity associated with the electricity sector and especially renewable generation. In this paradigm shift, forecasting tools are indispensable, and their utilization can significantly improve system operation and minimize costs associated with all related activities. Thus, forecasting tools have an essential key role in all decision-making stages. In this work, a hybrid probabilistic forecasting model (HPFM) was developed for short-term electricity market prices (EMP) combining wavelet transforms (WT), hybrid particle swarm optimization (DEEPSO), adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), and Monte Carlo simulation (MCS). The proposed hybrid probabilistic forecasting model (HPFM) was tested and validated with real data from the Spanish and Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland (PJM) markets. The proposed model exhibited favorable results and performance in comparison with previously published work considering electricity market prices (EMP) data, which is notable. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Electric vehicles (EVs) promote many advantages for distribution systems such as increasing efficiency and reliability, decreasing dependence on non-endogenous resources, and reducing pollutant emissions. Due to increased proliferation of EVs and their integration in power systems, management and operation of distribution systems (ODS) is becoming more important. Recent studies have shown that EV can increase power grid flexibility since EV owners do not use them for 93–96% of the daytime. Therefore, it is important to exploit parking time, during which EVs can act either as a load or distributed storage device, to maximize the benefit for the power system. Following a survey of the current state-of-the-art, this work studies the impact of EV charging on the load profile. Since renewable energy resources (RES) play a critical role in future distribution systems the current case study considered the presence of RES and their stochastic nature has been modeled. The study proceeds with analyzing EV owners' driving habits, enabling prediction of the network load profile. The impact of: EV charging modes (i.e., controlled and uncontrolled charging), magnitude of wind and photovoltaic (PV) generation, number of EVs (penetration), and driving patterns on the ODS is analyzed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Overtime, in the electricity sector, there has been a technological transfer to renewable electricity generation. With this change, processes, in the economic and availability terms, are expected to improve. In this new paradigm, society demands electricity without an impact on the environment and with the lowest possible cost. The wind power (WP) integration appears in this evolution process by achieving important technological advances, supporting in 2017 a growth of 44% of new projects in Europe, higher than any other renewable technology. However, the renewable energy sources (RES) integration in the electricity networks still presents technical difficulties and challenges, leading to challenges in the electricity markets (EMs). Therefore, this work evaluates the importance of WP and its influence on the Iberian Electricity Market (MIBEL), at the level of the intraday electricity spot market (IESM). This is an innovative study because literature usually focuses on day-ahead WP impact and this study focuses on intraday markets, which are closer to the consumption periods. The goal was to make an analysis on the impacts when betting on WP sources, in order to improve the market interaction with WP integration, considering as criteria the consumer satisfaction, in terms of lower electricity prices and WP availability. For this study, the market bids registered by the Iberian Electricity Market Operator (OMIE), from 2015 to 2017, ran over a new market simulator, specially developed for this proposal, considering a virtual market condition, but not considering the bids made by WP producers. The comparison of the results allowed the evaluation of the WP influence on the EM quantitative, which is noteworthy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]