Author: "Osborn, T.J." - Searchworks@Jio Institute Digital Library Search Results

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1. Development and illustrative outputs of the Community Integrated Assessment System (CIAS), a multi-institutional modular integrated assessment approach for modelling climate change

Author: Warren, R., de la Nava Santos, S., Arnell, N.W., Bane, M., Barker, T., Barton, C., Ford, R., Füssel, H.-M., Hankin, Robin K.S., Klein, Rupert, Linstead, C., Kohler, J., Mitchell, T.D., Osborn, T.J., Pan, H., Raper, S.C.B., Riley, G., Schellnhüber, H.J., Winne, S., and Anderson, D.
Published: 2008
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2. Influence of volcanic eruptions on Northern Hemisphere summer temperature over the past 600 years

Author: Briffa, K.R., Jones, P.D., Schweingruber, F.H., and Osborn, T.J.
Subjects: Weather -- Effect of volcanoes on, Volcanological research -- Analysis, Environmental issues, Science and technology, Zoology and wildlife conservation
Abstract: Variations in summer warmth can be measured by examining the density of tree rings from forests in the Northern Hemisphere. This allows summer temperatures to be plotted for the six hundred years from the 15th century. There are links between volcanic eruptions and climate change in the 19th century, such as the cool summers of 1816 and 1884. Other eruptions before the 19th century can also be evaluated. The coldest summer in this period happened in 1601, and this could be linked to the eruption of a Peruvian volcano, Huaynaputina. The Peruvian eruption may have been more severe than first thought, or may have been accompanied by other eruptions.
Published: 1998

3. Reduced sensitivity of recent tree-growth to temperature at high northern latitudes

Author: Briffa, K.R., Schweingruber, F.H., Jones, P.d., Osborn, T.J., Shiyatov, S.G., and Vaganov, E.A.
Subjects: Northern Hemisphere -- Natural history, Trees -- Development, Tree-rings -- Observations, Environmental issues, Science and technology, Zoology and wildlife conservation
Abstract: Large-regional-scale wood-density/air temperature links have been examined based on measurements from several sites at high latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere. Tree-density series show a strong link with summer temperature measurements average over the same areas. Decadal-scale trends in wood density and summer temperatures have diverged over the second half of the twentieth century, as wood density has fallen.
Published: 1998

4. Large-scale temperature inferences from tree rings: a review

Author: Briffa, K.R., Osborn, T.J., and Schweingruber, F.H.
Published: 2004
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5. State of the climate in 2018

Author: Ades, M., Adler, R., Aldeco, L.S., Alejandra, G., Alfaro, E.J., Aliaga-Nestares, V., Allan, R.P., Allan, R., Alves, L.M., Amador, J.A., Andersen, J.K., Anderson, J., Arndt, D.S., Arosio, C., Arrigo, K., Azorin-Molina, C., Bardin, M.Y., Barichivich, J., Barreira, S., Baxter, S., Beck, H.E., Becker, A., Bell, G.D., Bellouin, N., Belmont, M., Benedetti, A., Benedict, I., Bernhard, G.H., Berrisford, P., Berry, D.I., Bettio, L., Bhatt, U.S., Biskaborn, B.K., Bissolli, P., Bjella, K.L., Bjerke, J.K., Blake, E.S., Blenkinsop, S., Blunden, J., Bock, O., Bosilovich, M.G., Boucher, O., Box, J.E., Boyer, T., Braathen, G., Bringas, F.G., Bromwich, D.H., Brown, A., Brown, R., Brown, T.J., Buehler, S.A., CÃ¡ceres, L., CalderÃ³n, B., Camargo, S.J., Campbell, J.D., Campos Diaz, D.A., Cappelen, J., Carrea, L., Carrier, S.B., Carter, B.R., Castro, A.Y., Cetinic, I., Chambers, D.P., Chen, L., Cheng, L., Cheng, V.Y.S., Christiansen, H.H., Christy, J.R., Chung, E.-S., Claus, F., Clem, K.R., Coelho, C.A.S., Coldewey-Egbers, M., Colwell, S., Cooper, O.R., Cosca, C., Covey, C., Coy, L., DÃ¡vila, C.P., Davis, S.M., de Eyto, E., de Jeu, R.A.M., De Laat, J., Decharme, B., Degasperi, C.L., Degenstein, D., Demircan, M., Derksen, C., Dhurmea, K.R., Di Girolamo, L., Diamond, H.J., Diaz, E., Diniz, F.A., Dlugokencky, E.J., Dohan, K., Dokulil, M.T., Dolman, A.J., Domingues, C.M., Domingues, R., Donat, M.G., Dorigo, W.A., Drozdov, D.S., Druckenmiller, M.L., Dunn, R.J.H., Durre, I., Dutton, G.S., Elkharrim, M., Elkins, J.W., Epstein, H.E., Espinoza, J.C., Famiglietti, J.S., Farrell, S.L., Fausto, R.S., Feely, R.A., Feng, Z., Fenimore, C., Fettweis, X., Fioletov, V.E., Flemming, J., Fogt, R.L., Forbes, B.C., Foster, M.J., Francis, S.D., Franz, B.A., Frey, R.A., Frith, S.M., Froidevaux, L., Ganter, C., Garforth, J., Gerland, S., Gilson, J., Gleason, K., Gobron, N., Goetz, S., Goldenberg, S.B., Goni, G., Gray, A., Groo, J.-U., Gruber, A., Gu, G., Guard, C.C.P., Gupta, S.K., GutiÃ©rrez, D., Haas, Christian, Hagos, S., Hahn, S., Haimberger, L., Hall, B.D., Halpert, M.S., Hamlington, B.D., Hanna, E., Hanssen-Bauer, I., Harris, I., Hazeleger, W., He, Q., Heidinger, A.K., Heim, Jr., Hemming, D.L., Hendricks, Stefan, HernÃ¡ndez, R., Hersbach, H.E., Hidalgo, H.G., Ho, S.-P.B., Holmes, R.M., Hu, C., Huang, B., Hubbard, K., Hubert, D., Hurst, D.F., Ialongo, I., Ijampy, J.A., Inness, A., Isaac, V., Isaksen, K., Ishii, M., Jeffries, M.O., Jevrejeva, S., Jia, G., JimÃ©nez, C., Jin, X., John, V., Johnsen, B., Johnson, G.C., Johnson, K.S., Johnson, B., Jones, P.D., Jumaux, G., Kabidi, K., Kaiser, J.W., KarakÃ¶ylÃ¼, E.M., Karlsen, S.-R., Karnauskas, M., Kato, S., Kazemi, A.F., Kelble, C., Keller, L.M., Kennedy, J., Kholodov, A.L., Khoshkam, M., Kidd, R., Killick, R., Kim, H., Kim, S.-J., King, A.D., King, B.A., Kipling, Z., Klotzbach, P.J., Knaff, J.A., Korhonen, J., Korshunova, N.N., Kramarova, N.A., Kratz, D.P., Kruger, A., Kruk, M.C., Krumpen, Thomas, LabbÃ©, L., Ladd, C., Lakatos, M., Lakkala, K., Lander, M.A., LandschÃ¼tzer, P., Landsea, C.W., Lareau, N.P., Lavado-Casimiro, W., Lazzara, M.A., Lee, T.C., Leuliette, E., Lâ��heureux, M., Li, B., Li, T., Lieser, J.L., Lim, J.-Y., Lin, I.-I., Liu, H., Locarnini, R., Loeb, N.G., Long, C.S., LÃ³pez, L.A., Lorrey, A.M., Loyola, D., Lumpkin, R., Luo, J.-J., Luojus, K., Lyman, J.M., Malkova, G.V., Manney, G.L., Marchenko, S.S., Marengo, J.A., Marin, D., Marquardt Collow, A.B., Marra, J.J., Marszelewski, W., Martens, B., MartÃnez-GÃ¼ingla, R., Massom, R.A., May, L., Mayer, M., Mazloff, M., McBride, C., McCabe, M., McClelland, J.W., McEvoy, D.J., McGree, S., McVicar, T.R., Mears, C.A., Meier, W., Meijers, A., Mekonnen, A., Mengistu Tsidu, G., Menzel, W.P., Merchant, C.J., Meredith, M.P., Merrifield, M.A., Miller, B., Miralles, D.G., Misevicius, N., Mitchum, G.T., Mochizuki, Y., Monselesan, D., Montzka, S.A., Mora, N., Morice, C., Mosquera-VÃ¡squez, K., Mostafa, A.E., Mote, T., Mudryk, L., MÃ¼hle, J., Mullan, A.B., MÃ¼ller, R., Myneni, R., Nash, E.R., Nauslar, N.J., Nerem, R.S., Newman, P.A., Nicolas, J.P., Nieto, J.J., Noetzli, J., Osborn, T.J., Osborne, E., Overland, J., Oyunjargal, L., Park, T., Pasch, R.J., Pascual RamÃrez, R., Pastor Saavedra, M.A., Paterson, A.M., Pearce, P.R., Pelto, M.S., Perovich, D., Petropavlovskikh, I., Pezza, A.B., Phillips, C., Phillips, D., Phoenix, G., Pinty, B., Pitts, M., Po-Chedley, S., Polashenski, C., Preimesberger, W., Purkey, S.G., Quispe, N., Rajeevan, M., Rakotoarimalala, C.L., Ramos, A.M., Ramos, I., Randel, W., Raynolds, M.K., Reagan, J., Reid, P., Reimer, C., RÃ©my, S., Revadekar, J.V., Richardson, A.D., Richter-Menge, J., Ricker, Robert, Ripaldi, A., Robinson, D.A., Rodell, M., Rodriguez Camino, E., Romanovsky, V.E., Ronchail, J., Rosenlof, K.H., RÃ¶sner, B., Roth, C., Rozanov, A., Rusak, J.A., Rustemeier, E., RutishÃ¤user, T., SallÃ©e, J.-B., SÃ¡nchez-Lugo, A., Santee, M.L., Sawaengphokhai, P., Sayouri, A., Scambos, T.A., Scanlon, T., Scardilli, A.S., Schenzinger, V., Schladow, S.G., Schmid, C., Schmid, M., Schoeneich, P., Schreck, III, Selkirk, H.B., Sensoy, S., Shi, L., Shiklomanov, A.I., Shiklomanov, N.I., Shimpo, A., Shuman, C.A., Siegel, D.A., Sima, F., Simmons, A.J., Smeets, C.J.P.P., Smith, A., Smith, S.L., Soden, B., Sofieva, V., Sparks, T.H., Spence, J., Spencer, R.G.M., Spillane, S., Srivastava, A.K., Stabeno, P.J., Stackhouse, Jr., Stammerjohn, S., Stanitski, D.M., Steinbrecht, W., Stella, J.L., Stengel, M., Stephenson, T.S., Strahan, S.E., Streeter, C., Streletskiy, D.A., Sun-Mack, S., Suslova, A., Sutton, A.J., Swart, S., Sweet, W., Takahashi, K.S., Tank, S.E., Taylor, M.A., Tedesco, M., Thackeray, S.J., Thompson, P.R., Timbal, B., Timmermans, M.-L., Tobin, S., TÃ¸mmervik, H., Tourpali, K., Trachte, K., Tretiakov, M., Trewin, B.C., TriÃ±anes, J.A., Trotman, A.R., Tschudi, M., Tye, M.R., van As, D., van de Wal, R.S.W., van der A, R.J., van der Schalie, R., van der Schrier, G., van der Werf, G.R., van Heerwaarden, C., Van Meerbeeck, C.J., Verburg, P., Vieira, G., Vincent, L.A., VÃ¶mel, H., Vose, R.S., Walker, D.A., Walsh, J.E., Wang, B., Wang, H., Wang, L., Wang, M., Wang, R., Wang, S.-H., Wanninkhof, R., Watanabe, S., Weber, M., Webster, M., Weerts, A., Weller, R.A., Westberry, T.K., Weyhenmeyer, G.A., Widlansky, M.J., Wijffels, S.E., Wilber, A.C., Wild, J.D., Willett, K.M., Wong, T., Wood, E.F., Woolway, R.I., Xue, Y., Yin, X., Yu, L., Zambrano, E., Zeyaeyan, S., Zhang, H.-M., Zhang, P., Zhao, G., Zhao, L., Zhou, X., Zhu, Z., Ziemke, J.R., Ziese, M., Andersen, A., Griffin, J., Hammer, G., Love-Brotak, S.E., Misch, D.J., Riddle, D.B., Veasey, S.W., Ades, M., Adler, R., Aldeco, L.S., Alejandra, G., Alfaro, E.J., Aliaga-Nestares, V., Allan, R.P., Allan, R., Alves, L.M., Amador, J.A., Andersen, J.K., Anderson, J., Arndt, D.S., Arosio, C., Arrigo, K., Azorin-Molina, C., Bardin, M.Y., Barichivich, J., Barreira, S., Baxter, S., Beck, H.E., Becker, A., Bell, G.D., Bellouin, N., Belmont, M., Benedetti, A., Benedict, I., Bernhard, G.H., Berrisford, P., Berry, D.I., Bettio, L., Bhatt, U.S., Biskaborn, B.K., Bissolli, P., Bjella, K.L., Bjerke, J.K., Blake, E.S., Blenkinsop, S., Blunden, J., Bock, O., Bosilovich, M.G., Boucher, O., Box, J.E., Boyer, T., Braathen, G., Bringas, F.G., Bromwich, D.H., Brown, A., Brown, R., Brown, T.J., Buehler, S.A., CÃ¡ceres, L., CalderÃ³n, B., Camargo, S.J., Campbell, J.D., Campos Diaz, D.A., Cappelen, J., Carrea, L., Carrier, S.B., Carter, B.R., Castro, A.Y., Cetinic, I., Chambers, D.P., Chen, L., Cheng, L., Cheng, V.Y.S., Christiansen, H.H., Christy, J.R., Chung, E.-S., Claus, F., Clem, K.R., Coelho, C.A.S., Coldewey-Egbers, M., Colwell, S., Cooper, O.R., Cosca, C., Covey, C., Coy, L., DÃ¡vila, C.P., Davis, S.M., de Eyto, E., de Jeu, R.A.M., De Laat, J., Decharme, B., Degasperi, C.L., Degenstein, D., Demircan, M., Derksen, C., Dhurmea, K.R., Di Girolamo, L., Diamond, H.J., Diaz, E., Diniz, F.A., Dlugokencky, E.J., Dohan, K., Dokulil, M.T., Dolman, A.J., Domingues, C.M., Domingues, R., Donat, M.G., Dorigo, W.A., Drozdov, D.S., Druckenmiller, M.L., Dunn, R.J.H., Durre, I., Dutton, G.S., Elkharrim, M., Elkins, J.W., Epstein, H.E., Espinoza, J.C., Famiglietti, J.S., Farrell, S.L., Fausto, R.S., Feely, R.A., Feng, Z., Fenimore, C., Fettweis, X., Fioletov, V.E., Flemming, J., Fogt, R.L., Forbes, B.C., Foster, M.J., Francis, S.D., Franz, B.A., Frey, R.A., Frith, S.M., Froidevaux, L., Ganter, C., Garforth, J., Gerland, S., Gilson, J., Gleason, K., Gobron, N., Goetz, S., Goldenberg, S.B., Goni, G., Gray, A., Groo, J.-U., Gruber, A., Gu, G., Guard, C.C.P., Gupta, S.K., GutiÃ©rrez, D., Haas, Christian, Hagos, S., Hahn, S., Haimberger, L., Hall, B.D., Halpert, M.S., Hamlington, B.D., Hanna, E., Hanssen-Bauer, I., Harris, I., Hazeleger, W., He, Q., Heidinger, A.K., Heim, Jr., Hemming, D.L., Hendricks, Stefan, HernÃ¡ndez, R., Hersbach, H.E., Hidalgo, H.G., Ho, S.-P.B., Holmes, R.M., Hu, C., Huang, B., Hubbard, K., Hubert, D., Hurst, D.F., Ialongo, I., Ijampy, J.A., Inness, A., Isaac, V., Isaksen, K., Ishii, M., Jeffries, M.O., Jevrejeva, S., Jia, G., JimÃ©nez, C., Jin, X., John, V., Johnsen, B., Johnson, G.C., Johnson, K.S., Johnson, B., Jones, P.D., Jumaux, G., Kabidi, K., Kaiser, J.W., KarakÃ¶ylÃ¼, E.M., Karlsen, S.-R., Karnauskas, M., Kato, S., Kazemi, A.F., Kelble, C., Keller, L.M., Kennedy, J., Kholodov, A.L., Khoshkam, M., Kidd, R., Killick, R., Kim, H., Kim, S.-J., King, A.D., King, B.A., Kipling, Z., Klotzbach, P.J., Knaff, J.A., Korhonen, J., Korshunova, N.N., Kramarova, N.A., Kratz, D.P., Kruger, A., Kruk, M.C., Krumpen, Thomas, LabbÃ©, L., Ladd, C., Lakatos, M., Lakkala, K., Lander, M.A., LandschÃ¼tzer, P., Landsea, C.W., Lareau, N.P., Lavado-Casimiro, W., Lazzara, M.A., Lee, T.C., Leuliette, E., Lâ��heureux, M., Li, B., Li, T., Lieser, J.L., Lim, J.-Y., Lin, I.-I., Liu, H., Locarnini, R., Loeb, N.G., Long, C.S., LÃ³pez, L.A., Lorrey, A.M., Loyola, D., Lumpkin, R., Luo, J.-J., Luojus, K., Lyman, J.M., Malkova, G.V., Manney, G.L., Marchenko, S.S., Marengo, J.A., Marin, D., Marquardt Collow, A.B., Marra, J.J., Marszelewski, W., Martens, B., MartÃnez-GÃ¼ingla, R., Massom, R.A., May, L., Mayer, M., Mazloff, M., McBride, C., McCabe, M., McClelland, J.W., McEvoy, D.J., McGree, S., McVicar, T.R., Mears, C.A., Meier, W., Meijers, A., Mekonnen, A., Mengistu Tsidu, G., Menzel, W.P., Merchant, C.J., Meredith, M.P., Merrifield, M.A., Miller, B., Miralles, D.G., Misevicius, N., Mitchum, G.T., Mochizuki, Y., Monselesan, D., Montzka, S.A., Mora, N., Morice, C., Mosquera-VÃ¡squez, K., Mostafa, A.E., Mote, T., Mudryk, L., MÃ¼hle, J., Mullan, A.B., MÃ¼ller, R., Myneni, R., Nash, E.R., Nauslar, N.J., Nerem, R.S., Newman, P.A., Nicolas, J.P., Nieto, J.J., Noetzli, J., Osborn, T.J., Osborne, E., Overland, J., Oyunjargal, L., Park, T., Pasch, R.J., Pascual RamÃrez, R., Pastor Saavedra, M.A., Paterson, A.M., Pearce, P.R., Pelto, M.S., Perovich, D., Petropavlovskikh, I., Pezza, A.B., Phillips, C., Phillips, D., Phoenix, G., Pinty, B., Pitts, M., Po-Chedley, S., Polashenski, C., Preimesberger, W., Purkey, S.G., Quispe, N., Rajeevan, M., Rakotoarimalala, C.L., Ramos, A.M., Ramos, I., Randel, W., Raynolds, M.K., Reagan, J., Reid, P., Reimer, C., RÃ©my, S., Revadekar, J.V., Richardson, A.D., Richter-Menge, J., Ricker, Robert, Ripaldi, A., Robinson, D.A., Rodell, M., Rodriguez Camino, E., Romanovsky, V.E., Ronchail, J., Rosenlof, K.H., RÃ¶sner, B., Roth, C., Rozanov, A., Rusak, J.A., Rustemeier, E., RutishÃ¤user, T., SallÃ©e, J.-B., SÃ¡nchez-Lugo, A., Santee, M.L., Sawaengphokhai, P., Sayouri, A., Scambos, T.A., Scanlon, T., Scardilli, A.S., Schenzinger, V., Schladow, S.G., Schmid, C., Schmid, M., Schoeneich, P., Schreck, III, Selkirk, H.B., Sensoy, S., Shi, L., Shiklomanov, A.I., Shiklomanov, N.I., Shimpo, A., Shuman, C.A., Siegel, D.A., Sima, F., Simmons, A.J., Smeets, C.J.P.P., Smith, A., Smith, S.L., Soden, B., Sofieva, V., Sparks, T.H., Spence, J., Spencer, R.G.M., Spillane, S., Srivastava, A.K., Stabeno, P.J., Stackhouse, Jr., Stammerjohn, S., Stanitski, D.M., Steinbrecht, W., Stella, J.L., Stengel, M., Stephenson, T.S., Strahan, S.E., Streeter, C., Streletskiy, D.A., Sun-Mack, S., Suslova, A., Sutton, A.J., Swart, S., Sweet, W., Takahashi, K.S., Tank, S.E., Taylor, M.A., Tedesco, M., Thackeray, S.J., Thompson, P.R., Timbal, B., Timmermans, M.-L., Tobin, S., TÃ¸mmervik, H., Tourpali, K., Trachte, K., Tretiakov, M., Trewin, B.C., TriÃ±anes, J.A., Trotman, A.R., Tschudi, M., Tye, M.R., van As, D., van de Wal, R.S.W., van der A, R.J., van der Schalie, R., van der Schrier, G., van der Werf, G.R., van Heerwaarden, C., Van Meerbeeck, C.J., Verburg, P., Vieira, G., Vincent, L.A., VÃ¶mel, H., Vose, R.S., Walker, D.A., Walsh, J.E., Wang, B., Wang, H., Wang, L., Wang, M., Wang, R., Wang, S.-H., Wanninkhof, R., Watanabe, S., Weber, M., Webster, M., Weerts, A., Weller, R.A., Westberry, T.K., Weyhenmeyer, G.A., Widlansky, M.J., Wijffels, S.E., Wilber, A.C., Wild, J.D., Willett, K.M., Wong, T., Wood, E.F., Woolway, R.I., Xue, Y., Yin, X., Yu, L., Zambrano, E., Zeyaeyan, S., Zhang, H.-M., Zhang, P., Zhao, G., Zhao, L., Zhou, X., Zhu, Z., Ziemke, J.R., Ziese, M., Andersen, A., Griffin, J., Hammer, G., Love-Brotak, S.E., Misch, D.J., Riddle, D.B., and Veasey, S.W.
Published: 2019

6. Ascribing potential causes of recent trends in free atmosphere temperatures

Author: Thorne, P.W, Jones, P.D, Tett, S.F.B, Parker, D.E, Osborn, T.J, and Davies, T.D
Published: 2001
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7. Evaluating Process-Based Integrated Assessment Models of Climate Change Mitigation

Author: Wilson, C., Kriegler, E., van Vuuren, D.P., Guivarch, C., Frame, D., Krey, V., Osborn, T.J., Schwanitz, V.J., and Thompson, E.L.
Abstract: Process-based integrated assessment models (IAMs) analyse transformation pathways to mitigate climate change. Confidence in models is established by testing their structural assumptions and comparing their behaviour against observations as well as other models. Climate model evaluation is concerted, and prominently reported in a dedicated chapter in the IPCC WG1 assessments. By comparison, evaluation of process-based IAMs tends to be less visible and more dispersed among modelling teams, with the exception of model inter-comparison projects. We contribute the first comprehensive analysis of process-based IAM evaluation, drawing on a wide range of examples across eight different evaluation methods testing both structural and behavioural validity. For each evaluation method, we compare its application to process-based IAMs with its application to climate models, noting similarities and differences, and seeking useful insights for strengthening the evaluation of process-based IAMs. We find that each evaluation method has distinctive strengths and limitations, as well as constraints on their application. We develop a systematic evaluation framework combining multiple methods that should be embedded within the development and use of process-based IAMs.
Published: 2017

8. Updated high-resolution grids of monthly climatic observations - the CRU TS3.10 Dataset

Author: Harris, I., Jones, P.D., Osborn, T.J., and Lister, D.H.
Published: 2013
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9. State of the climate in 2015

Author: Aaron-Morrison, A.P., Ackerman, S.A., Adams, N.G., Adler, R.F., Albanil, A., Alfaro, E.J., Allan, R., Alves, L.M., Amador, J.A., Andreassen, L.M., Arendt, A., Arévalo, J., Arndt, D.S., Arzhanova, N.M., Aschan, M.M., Azorin-Molina, C., Banzon, V., Bardin, M.U., Barichivich, J., Baringer, M.O., Barreira, S., Baxter, S., Bazo, J., Becker, A., Bedka, K.M., Behrenfeld, M.J., Bell, G.D., Belmont, M., Benedetti, A., Bernhard, G., Berrisford, P., Berry, D.I., Bettolli, M.L., Bhatt, U.S., Bidegain, M., Bill, B.D., Billheimer, S., Bissolli, P., Blake, E.S., Blunden, J., Bosilovich, M.G., Boucher, O., Boudet, D., Box, J.E., Boyer, T., Braathen, G.O., Bromwich, D.H., Brown, R., Bulygina, O.N., Burgess, D., Calderón, B., Camargo, S.J., Campbell, J.D., Cappelen, J., Carrasco, G., Carter, B.R., Chambers, D.P., Chandler, E., Christiansen, H.H., Christy, J.R., Chung, D., Chung, E.-S., Cinque, K., Clem, K.R., Coelho, C.A., Cogley, J.G., Coldewey-Egbers, M., Colwell, S., Cooper, O.R., Copland, L., Cosca, C.E., Cross, J.N., Crotwell, M.J., Crouch, J., Davis, S.M., De Eyto, E., De Jeu, R.A.M., De Laat, J., Degasperi, C.L., Degenstein, D., Demircan, M., Derksen, C., Destin, D., Di Girolamo, L., Di Giuseppe, F., Diamond, H.J., Dlugokencky, E.J., Dohan, K., Dokulil, M.T., Dolgov, A.V., Dolman, A.J., Domingues, C.M., Donat, M.G., Dong, S., Dorigo, W.A., Dortch, Q., Doucette, G., Drozdov, D.S., Ducklow, H., Dunn, R.J.H., Durán-Quesada, A.M., Dutton, G.S., Ebrahim, A., Elkharrim, M., Elkins, J.W., Espinoza, J.C., Etienne-Leblanc, S., Evans, T.E., Famiglietti, J.S., Farrell, S., Fateh, S., Fausto, R.S., Fedaeff, N., Feely, R.A., Feng, Z., Fenimore, C., Fettweis, X., Fioletov, V.E., Flemming, J., Fogarty, C.T., Fogt, R.L., Folland, C., Fonseca, C., Fossheim, M., Foster, M.J., Fountain, A., Francis, S.D., Franz, B.A., Frey, R.A., Frith, S.M., Froidevaux, L., Ganter, C., Garzoli, S., Gerland, S., Gobron, N., Goldenberg, S.B., Gomez, R.S., Goni, G., Goto, A., Grooß, J.-U., Gruber, A., Guard, C.C., Gugliemin, M., Gupta, Somil, Gutiérrez, J.M., Hagos, S., Hahn, S., Haimberger, L., Hakkarainen, J., Hall, B.D., Halpert, M.S., Hamlington, B.D., Hanna, E., Hansen, K., Hanssen-Bauer, I., Harris, I., Heidinger, A.K., Heikkilä, A., Heil, A., Heim, R.R., Hendricks, S., Hernández, M., Hidalgo, H.G., Hilburn, K., Ho, S.-P.B., Holmes, R.M., Hu, Z.-Z., Huang, B., Huelsing, H.K., Huffman, G.J., Hughes, C., Hurst, D.F., Ialongo, I., Ijampy, J.A., Ingvaldsen, R.B., Inness, A., Isaksen, K., Ishii, M., Jevrejeva, S., Jiménez, C., Jin, X., Johannesen, E., John, V., Johnsen, B., Johnson, B., Johnson, G.C., Jones, P.D., Joseph, A.C., Jumaux, G., Kabidi, K., Kaiser, J.W., Kato, S., Kazemi, A., Keller, L.M., Kendon, M., Kennedy, J., Kerr, K., Kholodov, A.L., Khoshkam, M., Killick, R., Kim, H., Kim, S.-J., Kimberlain, T.B., Klotzbach, P.J., Knaff, J.A., Kobayashi, S., Kohler, J., Korhonen, J., Korshunova, N.N., Kovacs, K.M., Kramarova, N., Kratz, D.P., Kruger, A., Kruk, M.C., Kudela, R., Kumar, A., Lakatos, M., Lakkala, K., Lander, M.A., Landsea, C.W., Lankhorst, M., Lantz, K., Lazzara, M.A., Lemons, P., Leuliette, E., L’Heureux, M., Lieser, J.L., Lin, I.-I., Liu, H., Liu, Y., Locarnini, R., Loeb, N.G., Lo Monaco, C., Long, C.S., López Álvarez, L.A., Lorrey, A.M., Loyola, D., Lumpkin, R., Luo, J.-J., Luojus, K., Lydersen, C., Lyman, J.M., Maberly, S.C., Maddux, B.C., Malheiros Ramos, A., Malkova, G.V., Manney, G., Marcellin, V., Marchenko, S.S., Marengo, J.A., Marra, J.J., Marszelewski, W., Martens, B., Martínez-Güingla, R., Massom, R.A., Mata, M.M., Mathis, J.T., May, L., Mayer, M., Mazloff, M., McBride, C., McCabe, M.F., McCarthy, M., McClelland, J.W., McGree, S., McVicar, T.R., Mears, C.A., Meier, W., Meinen, C.S., Mekonnen, A., Menéndez, M., Mengistu Tsidu, G., Menzel, W.P., Merchant, C.J., Meredith, M.P., Merrifield, M.A., Metzl, N., Minnis, P., Miralles, D.G., Mistelbauer, T., Mitchum, G.T., Monselesan, D., Monteiro, P., Montzka, S.A., Morice, C., Mote, T., Mudryk, L., Mühle, J., Mullan, A.B., Nash, E.R., Naveira-Garabato, A.C., Nerem, R.S., Newman, P.A., Nieto, J.J., Noetzli, J., O’Neel, S., Osborn, T.J., Overland, J., Oyunjargal, L., Parinussa, R.M., Park, E.-H., Parker, D., Parrington, M., Parsons, A.R., Pasch, R.J., Pascual-Ramírez, R., Paterson, A.M., Paulik, C., Pearce, P.R., Pelto, M.S., Peng, L., Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S.E., Perovich, D., Petropavlovskikh, I., Pezza, A.B., Phillips, D., Pinty, B., Pitts, M.C., Pons, M.R., Porter, A.O., Primicerio, R., Proshutinsky, A., Quegan, S., Quintana, J., Rahimzadeh, F., Rajeevan, M., Randriamarolaza, L., Razuvaev, V.N., Reagan, J., Reid, P., Reimer, C., Rémy, S., Renwick, J.A., Revadekar, J.V., Richter-Menge, J., Riffler, M., Rimmer, A., Rintoul, S., Robinson, D.A., Rodell, M., Rodríguez Solís, J.L., Romanovsky, V.E., Ronchail, J., Rosenlof, K.H., Roth, C., Rusak, J.A., Sabine, C.L., Sallée, J.-B., Sánchez-Lugo, A., Santee, M.L., Sawaengphokhai, P., Sayouri, A., Scambos, T.A., Schemm, J., Schladow, S.G., Schmid, C., Schmid, M., Schmidtko, S., Schreck, C.J., Selkirk, H.B., Send, U., Sensoy, S., Setzer, A., Sharp, M., Shaw, A., Shi, L., Shiklomanov, A.I., Shiklomanov, N.I., Siegel, D.A., Signorini, S.R., Sima, F., Simmons, A.J., Smeets, C.J.P.P., Smith, S.L., Spence, J.M., Srivastava, A.K., Stackhouse, P.W., Stammerjohn, S., Steinbrecht, W., Stella, J.L., Stengel, M., Stennett-Brown, R., Stephenson, T.S., Strahan, S., Streletskiy, D.A., Sun-Mack, S., Swart, S., Sweet, W., Talley, L.D., Tamar, G., Tank, S.E., Taylor, M.A., Tedesco, M., Teubner, K., Thoman, R.L., Thompson, P., Thomson, L., Timmermans, M.-L., Tirnanes, J.A., Tobin, S., Trachte, K., Trainer, V.L., Tretiakov, M., Trewin, B.C., Trotman, A.R., Tschudi, M., Van As, D., Van De Wal, R.S.W., van der A., R.J., Van Der Schalie, R., Van Der Schrier, G., Van Der Werf, G.R., Van Meerbeeck, C.J., Velicogna, I., Verburg, P., Vigneswaran, B., Vincent, L.A., Volkov, D., Vose, R.S., Wagner, W., Wåhlin, A., Wahr, J., Walsh, J., Wang, C., Wang, J., Wang, L., Wang, M., Wang, S.-H., Wanninkhof, R., Watanabe, S., Weber, M., Weller, R.A., Weyhenmeyer, G.A., Whitewood, R., Wijffels, S.E., Wilber, A.C., Wild, J.D., Willett, K.M., Williams, M.J.M., Willie, S., Wolken, G., Wong, T., Wood, E.F., Woolway, R.I., Wouters, B., Xue, Y., Yamada, R., Yim, S.-Y., Yin, X., Young, S.H., Yu, L., Zahid, H., Zambrano, E., Zhang, P., Zhao, G., Zhou, L., Ziemke, J.R., Love-Brotak, S.E., Gilbert, K., Maycock, T., Osborne, S., Sprain, M., Veasey, S.W., Ambrose, B.J., Griffin, J., Misch, D.J., Riddle, D.B., Young, T., Marine and Atmospheric Research, Sub Inorganic Chemistry and Catalysis, Sub Dynamics Meteorology, Sub Soft Condensed Matter, Sub Molecular Microbiology, Sub Physics of devices begr 1/1/17, LS Logica en grondslagen v.d. wiskunde, Sub SIM overig, Zonder bezoldiging NED, Sub General Pharmaceutics, Sub Algemeen Artificial Intelligence, Dynamics of Innovation Systems, Leerstoel Tubergen, Sub Chemical pharmacology, Hafd Faculteitsbureau GW, Sub IER overig, Sub Gen. Pharmacoepi and Clinical Pharm, LS Pharma, Dep IRAS, Environmental Sciences, Environmental Governance, Bureau AW, Sub Ecology and Biodiversity, Marine and Atmospheric Research, Sub Inorganic Chemistry and Catalysis, Sub Dynamics Meteorology, Sub Soft Condensed Matter, Sub Molecular Microbiology, Sub Physics of devices begr 1/1/17, LS Logica en grondslagen v.d. wiskunde, Sub SIM overig, Zonder bezoldiging NED, Sub General Pharmaceutics, Sub Algemeen Artificial Intelligence, Dynamics of Innovation Systems, Leerstoel Tubergen, Sub Chemical pharmacology, Hafd Faculteitsbureau GW, Sub IER overig, Sub Gen. Pharmacoepi and Clinical Pharm, LS Pharma, Dep IRAS, Environmental Sciences, Environmental Governance, Bureau AW, Sub Ecology and Biodiversity, Earth and Climate, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Faculty of Earth and Life Sciences, and Climate Change and Landscape Dynamics
Subjects: Surface (mathematics), Atmospheric Science, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, 0208 environmental biotechnology, Mineralogy, 02 engineering and technology, 15. Life on land, 01 natural sciences, 020801 environmental engineering, 13. Climate action, F331 Atmospheric Physics, SDG 13 - Climate Action, SDG 14 - Life Below Water, Geology, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Abstract: SxviAUGUST 2016|ABSTRACT—J. BLUNDEN AND D. S. ARNDTIn 2015, the dominant greenhouse gases released into Earth’s atmosphere—carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide—all continued to reach new high levels. At Mauna Loa, Hawaii, the annual CO2 concentration increased by a record 3.1 ppm, exceeding 400 ppm for the first time on record. The 2015 global CO2 average neared this threshold, at 399.4 ppm. Additionally, one of the strongest El Niño events since at least 1950 developed in spring 2015 and continued to evolve through the year. The phenomenon was far reaching, impacting many regions across the globe and affecting most aspects of the climate system.Owing to the combination of El Niño and a long-term up-ward trend, Earth observed record warmth for the second con-secutive year, with the 2015 annual global surface temperature surpassing the previous record by more than 0.1°C and exceed-ing the average for the mid- to late 19th century—commonly considered representative of preindustrial conditions—by more than 1°C for the first time. Above Earth’s surface, lower troposphere temperatures were near-record high.Across land surfaces, record to near-record warmth was reported across every inhabited continent. Twelve countries, including Russia and China, reported record high annual tem-peratures. In June, one of the most severe heat waves since 1980 affected Karachi, Pakistan, claiming over 1000 lives. On 27 October, Vredendal, South Africa, reached 48.4°C, a new global high temperature record for this month. In the Arctic, the 2015 land surface temperature was 1.2°C above the 1981–2010 average, tying 2007 and 2011 for the high-est annual temperature and representing a 2.8°C increase since the record began in 1900. Increasing temperatures have led to decreasing Arctic sea ice extent and thickness. On 25 February 2015, the lowest maximum sea ice extent in the 37-year satel-lite record was observed, 7% below the 1981–2010 average. Mean sea surface temperatures across the Arctic Ocean dur-ing August in ice-free regions, representative of Arctic Ocean summer anomalies, ranged from ~0°C to 8°C above average. As a consequence of sea ice retreat and warming oceans, vast walrus herds in the Pacific Arctic are hauling out on land rather than on sea ice, raising concern about the energetics of females and young animals. Increasing temperatures in the Barents Sea are linked to a community-wide shift in fish populations: boreal communities are now farther north, and long-standing Arctic species have been almost pushed out of the area.Above average sea surface temperatures are not confined to the Arctic. Sea surface temperature for 2015 was record high at the global scale; however, the North Atlantic southeast of Greenland remained colder than average and colder than 2014. Global annual ocean heat content and mean sea level also reached new record highs. The Greenland Ice Sheet, with the capacity to contribute ~7 m to sea level rise, experienced melting over more than 50% of its surface for the first time since the record melt of 2012.Other aspects of the cryosphere were remarkable. Alpine glacier retreat continued, and preliminary data indicate that 2015 is the 36th consecutive year of negative annual mass balance. Across the Northern Hemisphere, late-spring snow cover extent continued its trend of decline, with June the sec-ond lowest in the 49-year satellite record. Below the surface, record high temperatures at 20-m depth were measured at all permafrost observatories on the North Slope of Alaska, increasing by up to 0.66°C decade–1 since 2000. In the Antarctic, surface pressure and temperatures were lower than the 1981–2010 average for most of the year, consis-tent with the primarily positive southern annular mode, which saw a record high index value of +4.92 in February. Antarctic sea ice extent and area had large intra-annual variability, with a shift from record high levels in May to record low levels in August. Springtime ozone depletion resulted in one of the largest and most persistent Antarctic ozone holes observed since the 1990s.Closer to the equator, 101 named tropical storms were observed in 2015, well above the 1981–2010 average of 82. The eastern/central Pacific had 26 named storms, the most since 1992. The western north Pacific and north and south Indian Ocean basins also saw high activity. Globally, eight tropical cyclones reached the Saffir–Simpson Category 5 intensity level.Overlaying a general increase in the hydrologic cycle, the strong El Niño enhanced precipitation variability around the world. An above-normal rainy season led to major floods in Paraguay, Bolivia, and southern Brazil. In May, the United States recorded its all-time wettest month in its 121-year national record. Denmark and Norway reported their second and third wettest year on record, respectively, but globally soil moisture was below average, terrestrial groundwater storage was the lowest in the 14-year record, and areas in “severe” drought rose from 8% in 2014 to 14% in 2015. Drought conditions prevailed across many Caribbean island nations, Colombia, Venezuela, and northeast Brazil for most of the year. Several South Pacific countries also experienced drought. Lack of rainfall across Ethiopia led to its worst drought in decades and affected millions of people, while prolonged drought in South Africa severely affected agricultural production. Indian summer monsoon rainfall was just 86% of average. Extremely dry conditions in Indonesia resulted in intense and widespread fires during August–November that produced abundant car-bonaceous aerosols, carbon monoxide, and ozone. Overall, emissions from tropical Asian biomass burning in 2015 were almost three times the 2001–14 average.
Published: 2016
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10. State of the climate in 2015

Author: Marine and Atmospheric Research, Sub Inorganic Chemistry and Catalysis, Sub Dynamics Meteorology, Sub Soft Condensed Matter, Sub Molecular Microbiology, Sub Physics of devices begr 1/1/17, LS Logica en grondslagen v.d. wiskunde, Sub SIM overig, Zonder bezoldiging NED, Sub General Pharmaceutics, Sub Algemeen Artificial Intelligence, Dynamics of Innovation Systems, Leerstoel Tubergen, Sub Chemical pharmacology, Hafd Faculteitsbureau GW, Sub ISEP overig, Sub Gen. Pharmacoepi and Clinical Pharm, LS Pharma, Dep IRAS, Environmental Sciences, Environmental Governance, Bureau AW, Sub Ecology and Biodiversity, Aaron-Morrison, A.P., Ackerman, S.A., Adams, N.G., Adler, R.F., Albanil, A., Alfaro, E.J., Allan, R., Alves, L.M., Amador, J.A., Andreassen, L.M., Arendt, A., Arévalo, J., Arndt, D.S., Arzhanova, N.M., Aschan, M.M., Azorin-Molina, C., Banzon, V., Bardin, M.U., Barichivich, J., Baringer, M.O., Barreira, S., Baxter, S., Bazo, J., Becker, A., Bedka, K.M., Behrenfeld, M.J., Bell, G.D., Belmont, M., Benedetti, A., Bernhard, G., Berrisford, P., Berry, D.I., Bettolli, M.L., Bhatt, U.S., Bidegain, M., Bill, B.D., Billheimer, S., Bissolli, P., Blake, E.S., Blunden, J., Bosilovich, M.G., Boucher, O., Boudet, D., Box, J.E., Boyer, T., Braathen, G.O., Bromwich, D.H., Brown, R., Bulygina, O.N., Burgess, D., Calderón, B., Camargo, S.J., Campbell, J.D., Cappelen, J., Carrasco, G., Carter, B.R., Chambers, D.P., Chandler, E., Christiansen, H.H., Christy, J.R., Chung, D., Chung, E.-S., Cinque, K., Clem, K.R., Coelho, C.A., Cogley, J.G., Coldewey-Egbers, M., Colwell, S., Cooper, O.R., Copland, L., Cosca, C.E., Cross, J.N., Crotwell, M.J., Crouch, J., Davis, S.M., De Eyto, E., De Jeu, R.A.M., De Laat, J., Degasperi, C.L., Degenstein, D., Demircan, M., Derksen, C., Destin, D., Di Girolamo, L., Di Giuseppe, F., Diamond, H.J., Dlugokencky, E.J., Dohan, K., Dokulil, M.T., Dolgov, A.V., Dolman, A.J., Domingues, C.M., Donat, M.G., Dong, S., Dorigo, W.A., Dortch, Q., Doucette, G., Drozdov, D.S., Ducklow, H., Dunn, R.J.H., Durán-Quesada, A.M., Dutton, G.S., Ebrahim, A., Elkharrim, M., Elkins, J.W., Espinoza, J.C., Etienne-Leblanc, S., Evans, T.E., Famiglietti, J.S., Farrell, S., Fateh, S., Fausto, R.S., Fedaeff, N., Feely, R.A., Feng, Z., Fenimore, C., Fettweis, X., Fioletov, V.E., Flemming, J., Fogarty, C.T., Fogt, R.L., Folland, C., Fonseca, C., Fossheim, M., Foster, M.J., Fountain, A., Francis, S.D., Franz, B.A., Frey, R.A., Frith, S.M., Froidevaux, L., Ganter, C., Garzoli, S., Gerland, S., Gobron, N., Goldenberg, S.B., Gomez, R.S., Goni, G., Goto, A., Grooß, J.-U., Gruber, A., Guard, C.C., Gugliemin, M., Gupta, Somil, Gutiérrez, J.M., Hagos, S., Hahn, S., Haimberger, L., Hakkarainen, J., Hall, B.D., Halpert, M.S., Hamlington, B.D., Hanna, E., Hansen, K., Hanssen-Bauer, I., Harris, I., Heidinger, A.K., Heikkilä, A., Heil, A., Heim, R.R., Hendricks, S., Hernández, M., Hidalgo, H.G., Hilburn, K., Ho, S.-P.B., Holmes, R.M., Hu, Z.-Z., Huang, B., Huelsing, H.K., Huffman, G.J., Hughes, C., Hurst, D.F., Ialongo, I., Ijampy, J.A., Ingvaldsen, R.B., Inness, A., Isaksen, K., Ishii, M., Jevrejeva, S., Jiménez, C., Jin, X., Johannesen, E., John, V., Johnsen, B., Johnson, B., Johnson, G.C., Jones, P.D., Joseph, A.C., Jumaux, G., Kabidi, K., Kaiser, J.W., Kato, S., Kazemi, A., Keller, L.M., Kendon, M., Kennedy, J., Kerr, K., Kholodov, A.L., Khoshkam, M., Killick, R., Kim, H., Kim, S.-J., Kimberlain, T.B., Klotzbach, P.J., Knaff, J.A., Kobayashi, S., Kohler, J., Korhonen, J., Korshunova, N.N., Kovacs, K.M., Kramarova, N., Kratz, D.P., Kruger, A., Kruk, M.C., Kudela, R., Kumar, A., Lakatos, M., Lakkala, K., Lander, M.A., Landsea, C.W., Lankhorst, M., Lantz, K., Lazzara, M.A., Lemons, P., Leuliette, E., L’Heureux, M., Lieser, J.L., Lin, I.-I., Liu, H., Liu, Y., Locarnini, R., Loeb, N.G., Lo Monaco, C., Long, C.S., López Álvarez, L.A., Lorrey, A.M., Loyola, D., Lumpkin, R., Luo, J.-J., Luojus, K., Lydersen, C., Lyman, J.M., Maberly, S.C., Maddux, B.C., Malheiros Ramos, A., Malkova, G.V., Manney, G., Marcellin, V., Marchenko, S.S., Marengo, J.A., Marra, J.J., Marszelewski, W., Martens, B., Martínez-Güingla, R., Massom, R.A., Mata, M.M., Mathis, J.T., May, L., Mayer, M., Mazloff, M., McBride, C., McCabe, M.F., McCarthy, M., McClelland, J.W., McGree, S., McVicar, T.R., Mears, C.A., Meier, W., Meinen, C.S., Mekonnen, A., Menéndez, M., Mengistu Tsidu, G., Menzel, W.P., Merchant, C.J., Meredith, M.P., Merrifield, M.A., Metzl, N., Minnis, P., Miralles, D.G., Mistelbauer, T., Mitchum, G.T., Monselesan, D., Monteiro, P., Montzka, S.A., Morice, C., Mote, T., Mudryk, L., Mühle, J., Mullan, A.B., Nash, E.R., Naveira-Garabato, A.C., Nerem, R.S., Newman, P.A., Nieto, J.J., Noetzli, J., O’Neel, S., Osborn, T.J., Overland, J., Oyunjargal, L., Parinussa, R.M., Park, E.-H., Parker, D., Parrington, M., Parsons, A.R., Pasch, R.J., Pascual-Ramírez, R., Paterson, A.M., Paulik, C., Pearce, P.R., Pelto, M.S., Peng, L., Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S.E., Perovich, D., Petropavlovskikh, I., Pezza, A.B., Phillips, D., Pinty, B., Pitts, M.C., Pons, M.R., Porter, A.O., Primicerio, R., Proshutinsky, A., Quegan, S., Quintana, J., Rahimzadeh, F., Rajeevan, M., Randriamarolaza, L., Razuvaev, V.N., Reagan, J., Reid, P., Reimer, C., Rémy, S., Renwick, J.A., Revadekar, J.V., Richter-Menge, J., Riffler, M., Rimmer, A., Rintoul, S., Robinson, D.A., Rodell, M., Rodríguez Solís, J.L., Romanovsky, V.E., Ronchail, J., Rosenlof, K.H., Roth, C., Rusak, J.A., Sabine, C.L., Sallée, J.-B., Sánchez-Lugo, A., Santee, M.L., Sawaengphokhai, P., Sayouri, A., Scambos, T.A., Schemm, J., Schladow, S.G., Schmid, C., Schmid, M., Schmidtko, S., Schreck, C.J., Selkirk, H.B., Send, U., Sensoy, S., Setzer, A., Sharp, M., Shaw, A., Shi, L., Shiklomanov, A.I., Shiklomanov, N.I., Siegel, D.A., Signorini, S.R., Sima, F., Simmons, A.J., Smeets, C.J.P.P., Smith, S.L., Spence, J.M., Srivastava, A.K., Stackhouse, P.W., Stammerjohn, S., Steinbrecht, W., Stella, J.L., Stengel, M., Stennett-Brown, R., Stephenson, T.S., Strahan, S., Streletskiy, D.A., Sun-Mack, S., Swart, S., Sweet, W., Talley, L.D., Tamar, G., Tank, S.E., Taylor, M.A., Tedesco, M., Teubner, K., Thoman, R.L., Thompson, P., Thomson, L., Timmermans, M.-L., Tirnanes, J.A., Tobin, S., Trachte, K., Trainer, V.L., Tretiakov, M., Trewin, B.C., Trotman, A.R., Tschudi, M., Van As, D., Van De Wal, R.S.W., van der A., R.J., Van Der Schalie, R., Van Der Schrier, G., Van Der Werf, G.R., Van Meerbeeck, C.J., Velicogna, I., Verburg, P., Vigneswaran, B., Vincent, L.A., Volkov, D., Vose, R.S., Wagner, W., Wåhlin, A., Wahr, J., Walsh, J., Wang, C., Wang, J., Wang, L., Wang, M., Wang, S.-H., Wanninkhof, R., Watanabe, S., Weber, M., Weller, R.A., Weyhenmeyer, G.A., Whitewood, R., Wijffels, S.E., Wilber, A.C., Wild, J.D., Willett, K.M., Williams, M.J.M., Willie, S., Wolken, G., Wong, T., Wood, E.F., Woolway, R.I., Wouters, B., Xue, Y., Yamada, R., Yim, S.-Y., Yin, X., Young, S.H., Yu, L., Zahid, H., Zambrano, E., Zhang, P., Zhao, G., Zhou, L., Ziemke, J.R., Love-Brotak, S.E., Gilbert, K., Maycock, T., Osborne, S., Sprain, M., Veasey, S.W., Ambrose, B.J., Griffin, J., Misch, D.J., Riddle, D.B., Young, T., Marine and Atmospheric Research, Sub Inorganic Chemistry and Catalysis, Sub Dynamics Meteorology, Sub Soft Condensed Matter, Sub Molecular Microbiology, Sub Physics of devices begr 1/1/17, LS Logica en grondslagen v.d. wiskunde, Sub SIM overig, Zonder bezoldiging NED, Sub General Pharmaceutics, Sub Algemeen Artificial Intelligence, Dynamics of Innovation Systems, Leerstoel Tubergen, Sub Chemical pharmacology, Hafd Faculteitsbureau GW, Sub ISEP overig, Sub Gen. Pharmacoepi and Clinical Pharm, LS Pharma, Dep IRAS, Environmental Sciences, Environmental Governance, Bureau AW, Sub Ecology and Biodiversity, Aaron-Morrison, A.P., Ackerman, S.A., Adams, N.G., Adler, R.F., Albanil, A., Alfaro, E.J., Allan, R., Alves, L.M., Amador, J.A., Andreassen, L.M., Arendt, A., Arévalo, J., Arndt, D.S., Arzhanova, N.M., Aschan, M.M., Azorin-Molina, C., Banzon, V., Bardin, M.U., Barichivich, J., Baringer, M.O., Barreira, S., Baxter, S., Bazo, J., Becker, A., Bedka, K.M., Behrenfeld, M.J., Bell, G.D., Belmont, M., Benedetti, A., Bernhard, G., Berrisford, P., Berry, D.I., Bettolli, M.L., Bhatt, U.S., Bidegain, M., Bill, B.D., Billheimer, S., Bissolli, P., Blake, E.S., Blunden, J., Bosilovich, M.G., Boucher, O., Boudet, D., Box, J.E., Boyer, T., Braathen, G.O., Bromwich, D.H., Brown, R., Bulygina, O.N., Burgess, D., Calderón, B., Camargo, S.J., Campbell, J.D., Cappelen, J., Carrasco, G., Carter, B.R., Chambers, D.P., Chandler, E., Christiansen, H.H., Christy, J.R., Chung, D., Chung, E.-S., Cinque, K., Clem, K.R., Coelho, C.A., Cogley, J.G., Coldewey-Egbers, M., Colwell, S., Cooper, O.R., Copland, L., Cosca, C.E., Cross, J.N., Crotwell, M.J., Crouch, J., Davis, S.M., De Eyto, E., De Jeu, R.A.M., De Laat, J., Degasperi, C.L., Degenstein, D., Demircan, M., Derksen, C., Destin, D., Di Girolamo, L., Di Giuseppe, F., Diamond, H.J., Dlugokencky, E.J., Dohan, K., Dokulil, M.T., Dolgov, A.V., Dolman, A.J., Domingues, C.M., Donat, M.G., Dong, S., Dorigo, W.A., Dortch, Q., Doucette, G., Drozdov, D.S., Ducklow, H., Dunn, R.J.H., Durán-Quesada, A.M., Dutton, G.S., Ebrahim, A., Elkharrim, M., Elkins, J.W., Espinoza, J.C., Etienne-Leblanc, S., Evans, T.E., Famiglietti, J.S., Farrell, S., Fateh, S., Fausto, R.S., Fedaeff, N., Feely, R.A., Feng, Z., Fenimore, C., Fettweis, X., Fioletov, V.E., Flemming, J., Fogarty, C.T., Fogt, R.L., Folland, C., Fonseca, C., Fossheim, M., Foster, M.J., Fountain, A., Francis, S.D., Franz, B.A., Frey, R.A., Frith, S.M., Froidevaux, L., Ganter, C., Garzoli, S., Gerland, S., Gobron, N., Goldenberg, S.B., Gomez, R.S., Goni, G., Goto, A., Grooß, J.-U., Gruber, A., Guard, C.C., Gugliemin, M., Gupta, Somil, Gutiérrez, J.M., Hagos, S., Hahn, S., Haimberger, L., Hakkarainen, J., Hall, B.D., Halpert, M.S., Hamlington, B.D., Hanna, E., Hansen, K., Hanssen-Bauer, I., Harris, I., Heidinger, A.K., Heikkilä, A., Heil, A., Heim, R.R., Hendricks, S., Hernández, M., Hidalgo, H.G., Hilburn, K., Ho, S.-P.B., Holmes, R.M., Hu, Z.-Z., Huang, B., Huelsing, H.K., Huffman, G.J., Hughes, C., Hurst, D.F., Ialongo, I., Ijampy, J.A., Ingvaldsen, R.B., Inness, A., Isaksen, K., Ishii, M., Jevrejeva, S., Jiménez, C., Jin, X., Johannesen, E., John, V., Johnsen, B., Johnson, B., Johnson, G.C., Jones, P.D., Joseph, A.C., Jumaux, G., Kabidi, K., Kaiser, J.W., Kato, S., Kazemi, A., Keller, L.M., Kendon, M., Kennedy, J., Kerr, K., Kholodov, A.L., Khoshkam, M., Killick, R., Kim, H., Kim, S.-J., Kimberlain, T.B., Klotzbach, P.J., Knaff, J.A., Kobayashi, S., Kohler, J., Korhonen, J., Korshunova, N.N., Kovacs, K.M., Kramarova, N., Kratz, D.P., Kruger, A., Kruk, M.C., Kudela, R., Kumar, A., Lakatos, M., Lakkala, K., Lander, M.A., Landsea, C.W., Lankhorst, M., Lantz, K., Lazzara, M.A., Lemons, P., Leuliette, E., L’Heureux, M., Lieser, J.L., Lin, I.-I., Liu, H., Liu, Y., Locarnini, R., Loeb, N.G., Lo Monaco, C., Long, C.S., López Álvarez, L.A., Lorrey, A.M., Loyola, D., Lumpkin, R., Luo, J.-J., Luojus, K., Lydersen, C., Lyman, J.M., Maberly, S.C., Maddux, B.C., Malheiros Ramos, A., Malkova, G.V., Manney, G., Marcellin, V., Marchenko, S.S., Marengo, J.A., Marra, J.J., Marszelewski, W., Martens, B., Martínez-Güingla, R., Massom, R.A., Mata, M.M., Mathis, J.T., May, L., Mayer, M., Mazloff, M., McBride, C., McCabe, M.F., McCarthy, M., McClelland, J.W., McGree, S., McVicar, T.R., Mears, C.A., Meier, W., Meinen, C.S., Mekonnen, A., Menéndez, M., Mengistu Tsidu, G., Menzel, W.P., Merchant, C.J., Meredith, M.P., Merrifield, M.A., Metzl, N., Minnis, P., Miralles, D.G., Mistelbauer, T., Mitchum, G.T., Monselesan, D., Monteiro, P., Montzka, S.A., Morice, C., Mote, T., Mudryk, L., Mühle, J., Mullan, A.B., Nash, E.R., Naveira-Garabato, A.C., Nerem, R.S., Newman, P.A., Nieto, J.J., Noetzli, J., O’Neel, S., Osborn, T.J., Overland, J., Oyunjargal, L., Parinussa, R.M., Park, E.-H., Parker, D., Parrington, M., Parsons, A.R., Pasch, R.J., Pascual-Ramírez, R., Paterson, A.M., Paulik, C., Pearce, P.R., Pelto, M.S., Peng, L., Perkins-Kirkpatrick, S.E., Perovich, D., Petropavlovskikh, I., Pezza, A.B., Phillips, D., Pinty, B., Pitts, M.C., Pons, M.R., Porter, A.O., Primicerio, R., Proshutinsky, A., Quegan, S., Quintana, J., Rahimzadeh, F., Rajeevan, M., Randriamarolaza, L., Razuvaev, V.N., Reagan, J., Reid, P., Reimer, C., Rémy, S., Renwick, J.A., Revadekar, J.V., Richter-Menge, J., Riffler, M., Rimmer, A., Rintoul, S., Robinson, D.A., Rodell, M., Rodríguez Solís, J.L., Romanovsky, V.E., Ronchail, J., Rosenlof, K.H., Roth, C., Rusak, J.A., Sabine, C.L., Sallée, J.-B., Sánchez-Lugo, A., Santee, M.L., Sawaengphokhai, P., Sayouri, A., Scambos, T.A., Schemm, J., Schladow, S.G., Schmid, C., Schmid, M., Schmidtko, S., Schreck, C.J., Selkirk, H.B., Send, U., Sensoy, S., Setzer, A., Sharp, M., Shaw, A., Shi, L., Shiklomanov, A.I., Shiklomanov, N.I., Siegel, D.A., Signorini, S.R., Sima, F., Simmons, A.J., Smeets, C.J.P.P., Smith, S.L., Spence, J.M., Srivastava, A.K., Stackhouse, P.W., Stammerjohn, S., Steinbrecht, W., Stella, J.L., Stengel, M., Stennett-Brown, R., Stephenson, T.S., Strahan, S., Streletskiy, D.A., Sun-Mack, S., Swart, S., Sweet, W., Talley, L.D., Tamar, G., Tank, S.E., Taylor, M.A., Tedesco, M., Teubner, K., Thoman, R.L., Thompson, P., Thomson, L., Timmermans, M.-L., Tirnanes, J.A., Tobin, S., Trachte, K., Trainer, V.L., Tretiakov, M., Trewin, B.C., Trotman, A.R., Tschudi, M., Van As, D., Van De Wal, R.S.W., van der A., R.J., Van Der Schalie, R., Van Der Schrier, G., Van Der Werf, G.R., Van Meerbeeck, C.J., Velicogna, I., Verburg, P., Vigneswaran, B., Vincent, L.A., Volkov, D., Vose, R.S., Wagner, W., Wåhlin, A., Wahr, J., Walsh, J., Wang, C., Wang, J., Wang, L., Wang, M., Wang, S.-H., Wanninkhof, R., Watanabe, S., Weber, M., Weller, R.A., Weyhenmeyer, G.A., Whitewood, R., Wijffels, S.E., Wilber, A.C., Wild, J.D., Willett, K.M., Williams, M.J.M., Willie, S., Wolken, G., Wong, T., Wood, E.F., Woolway, R.I., Wouters, B., Xue, Y., Yamada, R., Yim, S.-Y., Yin, X., Young, S.H., Yu, L., Zahid, H., Zambrano, E., Zhang, P., Zhao, G., Zhou, L., Ziemke, J.R., Love-Brotak, S.E., Gilbert, K., Maycock, T., Osborne, S., Sprain, M., Veasey, S.W., Ambrose, B.J., Griffin, J., Misch, D.J., Riddle, D.B., and Young, T.
Published: 2016

11. The impacts of climate change across the globe: a multi-sectoral assessment

Author: Arnell, N.W., Brown, S., Gosling, S.N., Gottschalk, P., Hinkel, J., Huntingford, C., Lloyd-Hughes, B., Lowe, J.A., Nicholls, R.J., Osborn, T.J., Osborne, T.M., Rose, G.A., Smith, P., Wheeler, T.R., Zelazowski, P., Arnell, N.W., Brown, S., Gosling, S.N., Gottschalk, P., Hinkel, J., Huntingford, C., Lloyd-Hughes, B., Lowe, J.A., Nicholls, R.J., Osborn, T.J., Osborne, T.M., Rose, G.A., Smith, P., Wheeler, T.R., and Zelazowski, P.
Abstract: The overall global-scale consequences of climate change are dependent on the distribution of impacts across regions, and there are multiple dimensions to these impacts. This paper presents a global assessment of the potential impacts of climate change across several sectors, using a harmonised set of impacts models forced by the same climate and socio-economic scenarios. Indicators of impact cover the water resources, river and coastal flooding, agriculture, natural environment and built environment sectors. Impacts are assessed under four SRES socio-economic and emissions scenarios, and the effects of uncertainty in the projected pattern of climate change are incorporated by constructing climate scenarios from 21 global climate models. There is considerable uncertainty in projected regional impacts across the climate model scenarios, and coherent assessments of impacts across sectors and regions therefore must be based on each model pattern separately; using ensemble means, for example, reduces variability between sectors and indicators. An example narrative assessment is presented in the paper. Under this narrative approximately 1 billion people would be exposed to increased water resources stress, around 450 million people exposed to increased river flooding, and 1.3 million extra people would be flooded in coastal floods each year. Crop productivity would fall in most regions, and residential energy demands would be reduced in most regions because reduced heating demands would offset higher cooling demands. Most of the global impacts on water stress and flooding would be in Asia, but the proportional impacts in the Middle East North Africa region would be larger. By 2050 there are emerging differences in impact between different emissions and socio-economic scenarios even though the changes in temperature and sea level are similar, and these differences are greater in 2080. However, for all the indicators, the range in projected impacts between different climate
Published: 2016

12. Climate Record: Surface Temperature Trends

Author: Jones, P.D. and Osborn, T.J.
Published: 2013
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13. Investigating Holocene climate variability: data-model comparisons

Author: Renssen, H., Osborn, T.J., and Climate Change and Landscape Dynamics
Published: 2003

14. Holocene climate variability investigated using data-model comparisons

Author: Renssen, H., Osborn, T.J., and Climate Change and Landscape Dynamics
Published: 2003

15. Ascribing potential causes of recent trends in free atmosphere temperatures

Author: Thorne, Peter, Jones, P.D., Tett, S.F.B., Parker, D.E., Osborn, T.J., and Davies, T.D.
Abstract: We use globally gridded radiosonde temperature datasets in a simple climate change study. Two climate models, when run with historical and, particularly, anthropogenic forcings, exhibit a degree of agreement with radiosonde temperature observations for 1958–1998.
Published: 2001

16. High-resolution palaeoclimatology of the last millennium: a review of current status and future prospects

Author: Jones, P.D., Briffa, K.R., Osborn, T.J., Lough, J.M., van Ommen, T.D., Vinther, B.M, Luterbacher, J., Wahl, E.R., Zwiers, F.W., Mann, M.E., Schmidt, G.A, Ammann, C.M., Buckley, B.M., Cobb, K.M., Esper, J., Goosse, H., Graham, N., Jansen, E., Kiefer, T., Kull, C., Küttel, M., Mosley-Thompson, E., Overpeck, J.T., Riedwyl, N., Schulz, M., Tudhope, A.W., Villalba, R., Wanner, H., Wolff, Eric W., Xoplaki, E., Jones, P.D., Briffa, K.R., Osborn, T.J., Lough, J.M., van Ommen, T.D., Vinther, B.M, Luterbacher, J., Wahl, E.R., Zwiers, F.W., Mann, M.E., Schmidt, G.A, Ammann, C.M., Buckley, B.M., Cobb, K.M., Esper, J., Goosse, H., Graham, N., Jansen, E., Kiefer, T., Kull, C., Küttel, M., Mosley-Thompson, E., Overpeck, J.T., Riedwyl, N., Schulz, M., Tudhope, A.W., Villalba, R., Wanner, H., Wolff, Eric W., and Xoplaki, E.
Abstract: This review of late-Holocene palaeoclimatology represents the results from a PAGES/CLIVAR Intersection Panel meeting that took place in June 2006. The review is in three parts: the principal high-resolution proxy disciplines (trees, corals, ice cores and documentary evidence), emphasizing current issues in their use for climate reconstruction; the various approaches that have been adopted to combine multiple climate proxy records to provide estimates of past annual-to-decadal timescale Northern Hemisphere surface temperatures and other climate variables, such as large-scale circulation indices; and the forcing histories used in climate model simulations of the past millennium. We discuss the need to develop a framework through which current and new approaches to interpreting these proxy data may be rigorously assessed using pseudo-proxies derived from climate model runs, where the `answer' is known. The article concludes with a list of recommendations. First, more raw proxy data are required from the diverse disciplines and from more locations, as well as replication, for all proxy sources, of the basic raw measurements to improve absolute dating, and to better distinguish the proxy climate signal from noise. Second, more effort is required to improve the understanding of what individual proxies respond to, supported by more site measurements and process studies. These activities should also be mindful of the correlation structure of instrumental data, indicating which adjacent proxy records ought to be in agreement and which not. Third, large-scale climate reconstructions should be attempted using a wide variety of techniques, emphasizing those for which quantified errors can be estimated at specified timescales. Fourth, a greater use of climate model simulations is needed to guide the choice of reconstruction techniques (the pseudo-proxy concept) and possibly help determine where, given limited resources, future sampling should be concentrated.
Published: 2009

17. High-resolution palaeoclimatology of the last millennium:A review of current status and future prospects

Author: Vinther, Bo Møllesøe, Jones, P.D., Briffa, K.R., Osborn, T.J., Lough, J.M., van Ommen, T.D., Luterbacher, J., Wahl, E.R., Zwiers, F.W., Mann, M.E., Schmidt, G.A., Ammann, C.M., Buckley, B.M., Cobb, K.M., Esper, J., Goosse, H., Graham, N., Jansen, E., Kiefer, T., Kull, C., Küttel, M., Mosley-Thompson, E., Overpeck, J.T., Riedwyl, N., Schulz, M., Tudhope, A.W., Villalba, R., Wanner, H., Wolff, E., Xoplaki, E., Vinther, Bo Møllesøe, Jones, P.D., Briffa, K.R., Osborn, T.J., Lough, J.M., van Ommen, T.D., Luterbacher, J., Wahl, E.R., Zwiers, F.W., Mann, M.E., Schmidt, G.A., Ammann, C.M., Buckley, B.M., Cobb, K.M., Esper, J., Goosse, H., Graham, N., Jansen, E., Kiefer, T., Kull, C., Küttel, M., Mosley-Thompson, E., Overpeck, J.T., Riedwyl, N., Schulz, M., Tudhope, A.W., Villalba, R., Wanner, H., Wolff, E., and Xoplaki, E.
Abstract: Palaeoclimatology • high-resolution • last millennium • tree rings • dendroclimatology • chronology • uncertainty • corals • ice-cores • speleothems • documentary evidence • instrumental records • varves • borehole temperature • marine sediments • composite plus scaling • CPS • climate field reconstruction • CFR • pseudo-proxy approach • time series • climate forcing Udgivelsesdato: 29.08
Published: 2009

18. Towards a vulnerability assessment of the UK and northern European coasts: the role of regional climate variability

Author: Tsimplis, M.N., Woolf, D.K., Osborn, T.J., Wakelin, S., Wolf, J., Flather, R., Shaw, A.G.P., Woodworth, P., Challenor, P., Blackman, D., Pert, F., Yan, Z., Jevrejeva, S., Tsimplis, M.N., Woolf, D.K., Osborn, T.J., Wakelin, S., Wolf, J., Flather, R., Shaw, A.G.P., Woodworth, P., Challenor, P., Blackman, D., Pert, F., Yan, Z., and Jevrejeva, S.
Abstract: Within the framework of a Tyndall Centre research project, sea level and wave changes around the UK and in the North Sea have been analysed. This paper integrates the results of this project. Many aspects of the contribution of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) to sea level and wave height have been resolved. The NAO is a major forcing parameter for sea-level variability. Strong positive response to increasing NAO was observed in the shallow parts of the North Sea, while slightly negative response was found in the southwest part of the UK. The cause of the strong positive response is mainly the increased westerly winds. The NAO increase during the last decades has affected both the mean sea level and the extreme sea levels in the North Sea. The derived spatial distribution of the NAO-related variability of sea level allows the development of scenarios for future sea level and wave height in the region. Because the response of sea level to the NAO is found to be variable in time across all frequency bands, there is some inherent uncertainty in the use of the empirical relationships to develop scenarios of future sea level. Nevertheless, as it remains uncertain whether the multi-decadal NAO variability is related to climate change, the use of the empirical relationships in developing scenarios is justified. The resulting scenarios demonstrate: (i) that the use of regional estimates of sea level increase the projected range of sea-level change by 50% and (ii) that the contribution of the NAO to winter sea-level variability increases the range of uncertainty by a further 10–20cm. On the assumption that the general circulation models have some skill in simulating the future NAO change, then the NAO contribution to sea-level change around the UK is expected to be very small (<4cm) by 2080. Wave heights are also sensitive to the NAO changes, especially in the western coasts of the UK. Under the same scenarios for future NAO changes, the projected significant wave-height
Published: 2005

19. Probable causes of late twentieth century tropospheric temperature trends

Author: Thorne, Peter, Jones, P.D., Tett, S.F.B., Allen, Myles R., Parker, D.E., Stott, P. A., Jones, G.S., Osborn, T.J., Davies, T.D., Thorne, Peter, Jones, P.D., Tett, S.F.B., Allen, Myles R., Parker, D.E., Stott, P. A., Jones, G.S., Osborn, T.J., and Davies, T.D.
Abstract: We assess the most probable causes of late twentieth century (1960–1994) tropospheric temperature changes. Optimal detection techniques are used to compare observed spatio-temporal patterns of near-surface and tropospheric temperature change with results from experiments performed with two different versions of the Hadley Centre climate model. We detect anthropogenic forcings, particularly well-mixed greenhouse-gases, with a less certain sulfate aerosol cooling influence. More limited evidence exists for a detectable volcanic influence. Our principal results do not depend upon the choice of model. Both models, but particularly HadCM3, appear to overestimate the simulated climate response to greenhouse gases (especially at the surface) and volcanoes. This result may arise, at least in part, due to errors in the forcings (especially sulfate) and technical details of our approach, which differs from previous studies. We use corrected and uncorrected versions of the radiosonde record to assess sensitivity of our detection results to observational uncertainties. We find that previous corrections applied to the radiosonde temperature record are likely to have been sub-optimal in only taking into account temporal consistency. However, the choice of corrected or uncorrected version has no systematic effect upon our main conclusions. We show that both models are potentially internally consistent explanations of observed tropospheric temperatures.
Published: 2003

20. Relationships between circulation strength and the variability of growing-season and cold-season climate in northern and central Europe

Author: Jones, Phil D., Briffa, K.R., Osborn, T.J., Moberg, Anders, Bergström, Hans, Jones, Phil D., Briffa, K.R., Osborn, T.J., Moberg, Anders, and Bergström, Hans
Published: 2002

21. Recent and future modulation of the annual cycle

Author: Wallace, C.J., Osborn, T.J., Wallace, C.J., and Osborn, T.J.
Abstract: This study investigates changes to the annual temperature cycle in both observed records and output from a coupled ocean-atmosphere global climate model. Using least-squares harmonic analysis, changes to the observed annual harmonic (for the time period 1856–1998), in addition to the 1961–1990 climatology, are compared with 9 simulations from the HadCM2 model. The first simulation is a 1400 yr control integration, whilst the remainder are from 2 ensembles representing (1) increases in CO2 concentrations and (2) a combination of CO2 and sulphate aerosol increases. Observed and simulated climatologies are generally comparable, although large amplitude and phase discrepancies exist over northern North America and high-latitude oceans, respectively. The agreement may be partly artificial over the oceans due to the use of flux adjustments to maintain a realistic sea-surface temperature field. Observed northern hemisphere amplitude decreases during the 20th century agree well with simulated changes, although there are some regional differences; observed changes to the southern hemisphere amplitude are insignificant. The sign of northern hemisphere phase changes are opposite in the 2 data sets. The nature of these results is unchanged after consideration is given to the varying spatial coverage of the observed data set, by means of applying a frozen grid mask to both observed and simulated data. These findings are consistent with previous studies, though we extend them by updating the observed record, by using ensembles to better define the climate change signal, and by considering the direct effects of sulphate aerosols. For a given warming, the inclusion of aerosols results in an enhanced amplitude decrease within the northern hemisphere, related to the summertime maximum of the direct sulphate cooling effect.
Published: 2002

22. Assessing the robustness of zonal mean climate change detection

Author: Thorne, Peter, Jones, Phil D., Osborn, T.J., Davies, T.D., Tett, Simon F.B., Parker, David E., Stott, Peter A., Jones, Gareth S., Allen, Myles R., Thorne, Peter, Jones, Phil D., Osborn, T.J., Davies, T.D., Tett, Simon F.B., Parker, David E., Stott, Peter A., Jones, Gareth S., and Allen, Myles R.
Abstract: We assess the robustness of previous optimal detection and attribution studies considering zonal-mean temperatures. Principal results, which have consistently pointed towards a demonstrable anthropogenic influence on recently observed upper air temperatures, are confirmed. Importantly our detection results are not critically dependent on the inclusion of stratospheric as well as tropospheric temperatures. We find that detection is dependent on input field pre-processing choices, and on the choice of detection algorithm. There are a number of cases where either no signals are detected, or results fail a consistency test.
Published: 2002

23. Global and Hemispheric Temperature Anomalies - Land and Marine Instrumental Records

Author: Jones,, P.D., primary, Parker,, D.E., primary, Osborn,, T.J., primary, and Briffa,, K.R., primary
Published: 2009
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24. High-resolution palaeoclimatology of the last millennium: a review of current status and future prospects

Author: Jones, P.D., primary, Briffa, K.R., additional, Osborn, T.J., additional, Lough, J.M., additional, van Ommen, T.D., additional, Vinther, B.M., additional, Luterbacher, J., additional, Wahl, E.R., additional, Zwiers, F.W., additional, Mann, M.E., additional, Schmidt, G.A., additional, Ammann, C.M., additional, Buckley, B.M., additional, Cobb, K.M., additional, Esper, J., additional, Goosse, H., additional, Graham, N., additional, Jansen, E., additional, Kiefer, T., additional, Kull, C., additional, Küttel, M., additional, Mosley-Thompson, E., additional, Overpeck, J.T., additional, Riedwyl, N., additional, Schulz, M., additional, Tudhope, A.W., additional, Villalba, R., additional, Wanner, H., additional, Wolff, E., additional, and Xoplaki, E., additional
Published: 2009
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25. Erratum to “Development and illustrative outputs of the Community Integrated Assessment System (CIAS), a multi-institutional modular integrated assessment approach for modelling climate change” [Environ Model Softw 23(5) (2008) 592–610]

Author: Warren, R., primary, de la Nava Santos, S., additional, Arnell, N.W., additional, Bane, M., additional, Barker, T., additional, Barton, C., additional, Ford, R., additional, Füssel, H.-M., additional, Hankin, Robin K.S., additional, Hinkel, J., additional, Klein, Rupert, additional, Linstead, C., additional, Kohler, J., additional, Mitchell, T.D., additional, Osborn, T.J., additional, Pan, H., additional, Raper, S.C.B., additional, Riley, G., additional, Schellnhüber, H.J., additional, Winne, S., additional, and Anderson, D., additional
Published: 2008
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26. The Arctic Ocean Response to the North Atlantic Oscillation

Author: Oceanography, Dickson, R.R., Osborn, T.J., Hurrell, J.W., Meincke, J., Blindheim, J., Adlandsvik, B., Vinje, T., Alekseev, G., Maslowski, Oceanography, Dickson, R.R., Osborn, T.J., Hurrell, J.W., Meincke, J., Blindheim, J., Adlandsvik, B., Vinje, T., Alekseev, G., and Maslowski
Abstract: The climatically sensitive zone of the Arctic Ocean lies squarely within the domain of the North Atlantic oscillation (NAO), one of the most robust recurrent modes of atmospheric behavior. However, the specific response of the Arctic to annual and longer-period changes in the NAO is not well understood. Here that response is investigated using a wide range of datasets, but concentrating on the winter season when the forcing is maximal and on the postwar period, which includes the most comprehensive instrumental record. This period also contains the largest recorded low-frequency change in NAO activity—from its most persistent and extreme low index phase in the 1960s to its most persistent and extreme high index phase in the late 1980s/early 1990s. This longperiod shift between contrasting NAO extrema was accompanied, among other changes, by an intensifying storm track through the Nordic Seas, a radical increase in the atmospheric moisture flux convergence and winter precipitation in this sector, an increase in the amount and temperature of the Atlantic water inflow to the Arctic Ocean via both inflow branches (Barents Sea Throughflow and West Spitsbergen Current), a decrease in the late-winter extent of sea ice throughout the European subarctic, and (temporarily at least) an increase in the annual volume flux of ice from the Fram Strait.
Published: 2000

27. Towards a vulnerability assessment of the UK and northern European coasts: the role of regional climate variability

Author: Tsimplis, M.N, primary, Woolf, D.K, additional, Osborn, T.J, additional, Wakelin, S, additional, Wolf, J, additional, Flather, R, additional, Shaw, A.G.P, additional, Woodworth, P, additional, Challenor, P, additional, Blackman, D, additional, Pert, F, additional, Yan, Z, additional, and Jevrejeva, S, additional
Published: 2005
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28. Representing Climate and Extreme Weather Events in Integrated Assessment Models: A Review of Existing Methods and Options for Development

Author: Goodess, C.M., primary, Hanson, C., additional, Hulme, M., additional, and Osborn, T.J., additional
Published: 2003
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29. Updated high-resolution grids of monthly climatic observations - the CRU TS3.10 Dataset.

Author: Harris, I., Jones, P.D., Osborn, T.J., and Lister, D.H.
Subjects: METEOROLOGICAL stations, TEMPERATURE, METEOROLOGICAL precipitation, VAPOUR pressure measurement, EVAPOTRANSPIRATION
Abstract: ABSTRACT This paper describes the construction of an updated gridded climate dataset (referred to as CRU TS3.10) from monthly observations at meteorological stations across the world's land areas. Station anomalies (from 1961 to 1990 means) were interpolated into 0.5° latitude/longitude grid cells covering the global land surface (excluding Antarctica), and combined with an existing climatology to obtain absolute monthly values. The dataset includes six mostly independent climate variables (mean temperature, diurnal temperature range, precipitation, wet-day frequency, vapour pressure and cloud cover). Maximum and minimum temperatures have been arithmetically derived from these. Secondary variables (frost day frequency and potential evapotranspiration) have been estimated from the six primary variables using well-known formulae. Time series for hemispheric averages and 20 large sub-continental scale regions were calculated (for mean, maximum and minimum temperature and precipitation totals) and compared to a number of similar gridded products. The new dataset compares very favourably, with the major deviations mostly in regions and/or time periods with sparser observational data. CRU TS3.10 includes diagnostics associated with each interpolated value that indicates the number of stations used in the interpolation, allowing determination of the reliability of values in an objective way. This gridded product will be publicly available, including the input station series ( and ). © 2013 Royal Meteorological Society [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Published: 2014
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30. Use of an upwelling-diffusion energy balance climate model to simulate and diagnose A/OGCM results.

Author: Raper, S.C.B., Gregory, J.M., and Osborn, T.J.
Subjects: DIFFUSION, BIOENERGETICS, CLIMATOLOGY, ATMOSPHERIC models, ATMOSPHERIC temperature, ABSOLUTE sea level change
Abstract: We demonstrate that a hemispherically averaged upwelling-diffusion energy-balance climate model (UD/EBM) can emulate the surface air temperature change and sea-level rise due to thermal expansion, predicted by the HadCM2 coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model, for various scenarios of anthropogenic radiative forcing over 1860–2100. A climate sensitivity of 2.6 °C is assumed, and a representation of the effect of sea-ice retreat on surface air temperature is required. In an extended experiment, with CO2 concentration held constant at twice the control run value, the HadCM2 effective climate sensitivity is found to increase from about 2.0 °C at the beginning of the integration to 3.85 °C after 900 years. The sea-level rise by this time is almost 1.0 m and the rate of rise fairly steady, implying that the final equilibrium value (the `commitment') is large. The base UD/EBM can fit the 900-year simulation of surface temperature change and thermal expansion provided that the time-dependent climate sensitivity is specified, but the vertical profile of warming in the ocean is not well reproduced. The main discrepancy is the relatively large mid-depth warming in the HadCM2 ocean, that can be emulated by (1) diagnosing depth-dependent diffusivities that increase through time; (2) diagnosing depth-dependent diffusivities for a pure-diffusion (zero upwelling) model; or (3) diagnosing higher depth-dependent diffusivities that are applied to temperature perturbations only. The latter two models can be run to equilibrium, and with a climate sensitivity of 3.85 °C, they give sea-level rise commitments of 1.7 m and 1.3 m, respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Published: 2001
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31. The Evolution of Climate Over the Last Millennium.

Author: Jones, P.D., Osborn, T.J., and Briffa, K.R.
Subjects: *CLIMATE change, *PALEOCLIMATOLOGY, *GLOBAL temperature changes, *SOUTHERN oscillation
Abstract: Analyzes large-scale climate changes and two major circulation features, El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), using paleoclimate records. Climate changes during the 20th century; Uniqueness of changes in ENSO and NAO; Global temperature characteristics for various centuries; Diversity of climatic records used in the study.
Published: 2001
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32. The Arctic Ocean Response to the North Atlantic Oscillation.

Author: Dickson, R.R., Osborn, T.J., Hurrell, J.W., Meincke, J., Blindheim, J., Adlandsvik, B., Vinje, T., Alekseev, G., and Maslowski, W.
Subjects: *NORTH Atlantic oscillation, *CLIMATOLOGY
Abstract: The climatically sensitive zone of the Arctic Ocean lies squarely within the domain of the North Atlantic oscillation (NAO), one of the most robust recurrent modes of atmospheric behavior. However, the specific response of the Arctic to annual and longer-period changes in the NAO is not well understood. Here that response is investigated using a wide range of datasets, but concentrating on the winter season when the forcing is maximal and on the postwar period, which includes the most comprehensive instrumental record. This period also contains the largest recorded low-frequency change in NAO activit--from its most persistent and extreme low index phase in the 1960s to its most persistent and extreme high index phase in the late 1980s/early 1990s. This long-period shift between contrasting NAO extrema was accompanied, among other changes, by an intensifying storm track through the Nordic Seas, a radical increase in the atmospheric moisture flux convergence and winter precipitation in this sector, an increase in the amount and temperature of the Atlantic water inflow to the Arctic Ocean via both inflow branches (Barents Sea Throughflow and West Spitsbergen Current), a decrease in the late-winter extent of sea ice throughout the European subarctic, and (temporarily at least) an increase in the annual volume flux of ice from the Fram Strait. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Published: 2000
Full Text: View/download PDF

33. High-resolution paleoclimatology of the last millennium: a review of current status and future prospects

Author: Schulz, M., Xoplaki, Elena, Tudhope, S., Villalba, R., Wolff, E., Kiefer, Thorsten, Jones, P.D., Lough, J.M., Buckley, B.M., Osborn, T.J., Van Ommen, T.D., Overpeck, J.T., Mosley-Thompson, E., Schmidt, G.A., Briffa, K.R., Ammann, Caspar, Cobb, K., Esper, Jan, Riedwyl, Nadja, Luterbacher, Jürg, Goosse, H., Mann, M.E., Wanner, Heinz, Graham, N., Küttel, Marcel, Kull, Christoph, Wahl, E, Jansen, E., Zwiers, F.W., and Vinther, B.M.
Subjects: 13. Climate action, 550 Earth sciences & geology, 910 Geography & travel, 15. Life on land
Abstract: This review of late-Holocene palaeoclimatology represents the results from a PAGES/CLIVAR Intersection Panel meeting that took place in June 2006. The review is in three parts: the principal high-resolution proxy disciplines (trees, corals, ice cores and documentary evidence), emphasizing current issues in their use for climate reconstruction; the various approaches that have been adopted to combine multiple climate proxy records to provide estimates of past annual-to-decadal timescale Northern Hemisphere surface temperatures and other climate variables, such as large-scale circulation indices; and the forcing histories used in climate model simulations of the past millennium. We discuss the need to develop a framework through which current and new approaches to interpreting these proxy data may be rigorously assessed using pseudo-proxies derived from climate model runs, where the `answer' is known. The article concludes with a list of recommendations. First, more raw proxy data are required from the diverse disciplines and from more locations, as well as replication, for all proxy sources, of the basic raw measurements to improve absolute dating, and to better distinguish the proxy climate signal from noise. Second, more effort is required to improve the understanding of what individual proxies respond to, supported by more site measurements and process studies. These activities should also be mindful of the correlation structure of instrumental data, indicating which adjacent proxy records ought to be in agreement and which not. Third, large-scale climate reconstructions should be attempted using a wide variety of techniques, emphasizing those for which quantified errors can be estimated at specified timescales. Fourth, a greater use of climate model simulations is needed to guide the choice of reconstruction techniques (the pseudo-proxy concept) and possibly help determine where, given limited resources, future sampling should be concentrated.

34. The impacts of climate change across the globe: a multi-sectoral assessment

Author: Brown, Sally, Arnell, Nigel, Gosling, Simon N., Gottschalk, J. Hinkel, Huntingford, Chris, Lloyd-Hughes, Ben, Lowe, J.A., Nicholls, R.J., Osborn, T.J., Osborne, T.M., Rose, G.A., Smith, P., Wheeler, T.R., Zelazowski, P., Brown, Sally, Arnell, Nigel, Gosling, Simon N., Gottschalk, J. Hinkel, Huntingford, Chris, Lloyd-Hughes, Ben, Lowe, J.A., Nicholls, R.J., Osborn, T.J., Osborne, T.M., Rose, G.A., Smith, P., Wheeler, T.R., and Zelazowski, P.
Abstract: The overall global-scale consequences of climate change are dependent on the distribution of impacts across regions, and there are multiple dimensions to these impacts. This paper presents a global assessment of the potential impacts of climate change across several sectors, using a harmonised set of impacts models forced by the same climate and socio-economic scenarios. Indicators of impact cover the water resources, river and coastal flooding, agriculture, natural environment and built environment sectors. Impacts are assessed under four SRES socio-economic and emissions scenarios, and the effects of uncertainty in the projected pattern of climate change are incorporated by constructing climate scenarios from 21 global climate models. There is considerable uncertainty in projected regional impacts across the climate model scenarios, and coherent assessments of impacts across sectors and regions therefore must be based on each model pattern separately; using ensemble means, for example, reduces variability between sectors and indicators. An example narrative assessment is presented in the paper. Under this narrative approximately 1 billion people would be exposed to increased water resources stress, around 450 million people exposed to increased river flooding, and 1.3 million extra people would be flooded in coastal floods each year. Crop productivity would fall in most regions, and residential energy demands would be reduced in most regions because reduced heating demands would offset higher cooling demands. Most of the global impacts on water stress and flooding would be in Asia, but the proportional impacts in the Middle East North Africa region would be larger. By 2050 there are emerging differences in impact between different emissions and socio-economic scenarios even though the changes in temperature and sea level are similar, and these differences are greater in 2080. However, for all the indicators, the range in projected impacts between different climate
Full Text: View/download PDF

35. The impacts of climate change across the globe: a multi-sectoral assessment

Author: Brown, Sally, Arnell, Nigel, Gosling, Simon N., Gottschalk, J. Hinkel, Huntingford, Chris, Lloyd-Hughes, Ben, Lowe, J.A., Nicholls, R.J., Osborn, T.J., Osborne, T.M., Rose, G.A., Smith, P., Wheeler, T.R., Zelazowski, P., Brown, Sally, Arnell, Nigel, Gosling, Simon N., Gottschalk, J. Hinkel, Huntingford, Chris, Lloyd-Hughes, Ben, Lowe, J.A., Nicholls, R.J., Osborn, T.J., Osborne, T.M., Rose, G.A., Smith, P., Wheeler, T.R., and Zelazowski, P.
Abstract: The overall global-scale consequences of climate change are dependent on the distribution of impacts across regions, and there are multiple dimensions to these impacts. This paper presents a global assessment of the potential impacts of climate change across several sectors, using a harmonised set of impacts models forced by the same climate and socio-economic scenarios. Indicators of impact cover the water resources, river and coastal flooding, agriculture, natural environment and built environment sectors. Impacts are assessed under four SRES socio-economic and emissions scenarios, and the effects of uncertainty in the projected pattern of climate change are incorporated by constructing climate scenarios from 21 global climate models. There is considerable uncertainty in projected regional impacts across the climate model scenarios, and coherent assessments of impacts across sectors and regions therefore must be based on each model pattern separately; using ensemble means, for example, reduces variability between sectors and indicators. An example narrative assessment is presented in the paper. Under this narrative approximately 1 billion people would be exposed to increased water resources stress, around 450 million people exposed to increased river flooding, and 1.3 million extra people would be flooded in coastal floods each year. Crop productivity would fall in most regions, and residential energy demands would be reduced in most regions because reduced heating demands would offset higher cooling demands. Most of the global impacts on water stress and flooding would be in Asia, but the proportional impacts in the Middle East North Africa region would be larger. By 2050 there are emerging differences in impact between different emissions and socio-economic scenarios even though the changes in temperature and sea level are similar, and these differences are greater in 2080. However, for all the indicators, the range in projected impacts between different climate
Full Text: View/download PDF

36. The impacts of climate change across the globe: a multi-sectoral assessment

Author: Brown, Sally, Arnell, Nigel, Gosling, Simon N., Gottschalk, J. Hinkel, Huntingford, Chris, Lloyd-Hughes, Ben, Lowe, J.A., Nicholls, R.J., Osborn, T.J., Osborne, T.M., Rose, G.A., Smith, P., Wheeler, T.R., Zelazowski, P., Brown, Sally, Arnell, Nigel, Gosling, Simon N., Gottschalk, J. Hinkel, Huntingford, Chris, Lloyd-Hughes, Ben, Lowe, J.A., Nicholls, R.J., Osborn, T.J., Osborne, T.M., Rose, G.A., Smith, P., Wheeler, T.R., and Zelazowski, P.
Abstract: The overall global-scale consequences of climate change are dependent on the distribution of impacts across regions, and there are multiple dimensions to these impacts. This paper presents a global assessment of the potential impacts of climate change across several sectors, using a harmonised set of impacts models forced by the same climate and socio-economic scenarios. Indicators of impact cover the water resources, river and coastal flooding, agriculture, natural environment and built environment sectors. Impacts are assessed under four SRES socio-economic and emissions scenarios, and the effects of uncertainty in the projected pattern of climate change are incorporated by constructing climate scenarios from 21 global climate models. There is considerable uncertainty in projected regional impacts across the climate model scenarios, and coherent assessments of impacts across sectors and regions therefore must be based on each model pattern separately; using ensemble means, for example, reduces variability between sectors and indicators. An example narrative assessment is presented in the paper. Under this narrative approximately 1 billion people would be exposed to increased water resources stress, around 450 million people exposed to increased river flooding, and 1.3 million extra people would be flooded in coastal floods each year. Crop productivity would fall in most regions, and residential energy demands would be reduced in most regions because reduced heating demands would offset higher cooling demands. Most of the global impacts on water stress and flooding would be in Asia, but the proportional impacts in the Middle East North Africa region would be larger. By 2050 there are emerging differences in impact between different emissions and socio-economic scenarios even though the changes in temperature and sea level are similar, and these differences are greater in 2080. However, for all the indicators, the range in projected impacts between different climate
Full Text: View/download PDF

37. The impacts of climate change across the globe: a multi-sectoral assessment

Author: Brown, Sally, Arnell, Nigel, Gosling, Simon N., Gottschalk, J. Hinkel, Huntingford, Chris, Lloyd-Hughes, Ben, Lowe, J.A., Nicholls, R.J., Osborn, T.J., Osborne, T.M., Rose, G.A., Smith, P., Wheeler, T.R., Zelazowski, P., Brown, Sally, Arnell, Nigel, Gosling, Simon N., Gottschalk, J. Hinkel, Huntingford, Chris, Lloyd-Hughes, Ben, Lowe, J.A., Nicholls, R.J., Osborn, T.J., Osborne, T.M., Rose, G.A., Smith, P., Wheeler, T.R., and Zelazowski, P.
Abstract: The overall global-scale consequences of climate change are dependent on the distribution of impacts across regions, and there are multiple dimensions to these impacts. This paper presents a global assessment of the potential impacts of climate change across several sectors, using a harmonised set of impacts models forced by the same climate and socio-economic scenarios. Indicators of impact cover the water resources, river and coastal flooding, agriculture, natural environment and built environment sectors. Impacts are assessed under four SRES socio-economic and emissions scenarios, and the effects of uncertainty in the projected pattern of climate change are incorporated by constructing climate scenarios from 21 global climate models. There is considerable uncertainty in projected regional impacts across the climate model scenarios, and coherent assessments of impacts across sectors and regions therefore must be based on each model pattern separately; using ensemble means, for example, reduces variability between sectors and indicators. An example narrative assessment is presented in the paper. Under this narrative approximately 1 billion people would be exposed to increased water resources stress, around 450 million people exposed to increased river flooding, and 1.3 million extra people would be flooded in coastal floods each year. Crop productivity would fall in most regions, and residential energy demands would be reduced in most regions because reduced heating demands would offset higher cooling demands. Most of the global impacts on water stress and flooding would be in Asia, but the proportional impacts in the Middle East North Africa region would be larger. By 2050 there are emerging differences in impact between different emissions and socio-economic scenarios even though the changes in temperature and sea level are similar, and these differences are greater in 2080. However, for all the indicators, the range in projected impacts between different climate
Full Text: View/download PDF

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