Search

The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is Earth's dominant source of interannual climate variability, but its response to global warming remainshighly uncertain (1). To improve our understanding of ENSO's sensitivity to external climate forcing, it is paramount to determine its past behaviour by using palaeoclimate data and model simulations. Palaeoclimate records show that ENSO has varied considerably since the Last Glacial Maximum (21,000 years ago) (2-9), and some data sets suggest a gradual intensification of ENSO over the past ~6,000 years (2,5,7,8). Previous attempts to simulate the transient evolution of ENSO have relied on simplified models (10) or snapshot (11-13) experiments. Here we analyse a series of transient Coupled General Circulation Model simulations forced by changes in greenhouse gasses, orbital forcing, the meltwater discharge and the ice-sheet history throughout the past 21,000 years. Consistent with most palaeo-ENSO reconstructions, our model simulates an orbitally induced strengthening of ENSO during the Holocene epoch, which is caused by increasing positive ocean-atmosphere feedbacks. During the early deglaciation, ENSO characteristics change drastically in response to meltwater discharges and the resulting changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and equatorial annual cycle. Increasing deglacial atmospheric C[O.sub.2] concentrations tend to weaken ENSO, whereas retreating glacial ice sheets intensify ENSO. The complex evolution offorcings and ENSO feedbacks and the uncertainties in the reconstruction further highlight the challenge and opportunity for constraining future ENSO responses., To understand ENSO's evolution during the past 21 kyr, we analyse the baseline transient simulation (TRACE) conducted with the Community Climate System model version 3 (CCSM3). This simulation uses the [...]

The Younger Dryas stadial, a cold event spanning 12,800 to 11,500 years ago, during the last deglaciation, is thought to coincide with the last major glacial re-advance in the tropical Andes (1). This interpretation relies mainly on cosmic-ray exposure dating of glacial deposits. Recent studies, however, have established new production rates (2-4) for cosmogenic [sup.10]Be and ³He, which make it necessary to update all chronologies in this region (1,5-15) and revise our understanding of cryospheric responses to climate variability. Here we present a new [sup.10]Be moraine chronology in Colombia showing that glaciers in the northern tropical Andes expanded to a larger extent during the Antarctic cold reversal (14,500 to 12,900 years ago) than during the Younger Dryas. On the basis of a homogenized chronology of all [sup.10]Be and ³He moraine ages across the tropical Andes, we show that this behaviour was common to the northern and southern tropical Andes. Transient simulations with a coupled global climate model suggest that the common glacier behaviour was the result of Atlantic meridional overturning circulation variability superimposed on a deglacial increase in the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration. During the Antarctic cold reversal, glaciers advanced primarily in response to cold sea surface temperatures over much of the Southern Hemisphere. During the Younger Dryas, however, northern tropical Andes glaciers retreated owing to abrupt regional warming in response to reduced precipitation and land-surface feedbacks triggered by a weakened Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. Conversely, glacier retreat during the Younger Dryas in the southern tropical Andes occurred as a result of progressive warming, probably influenced by an increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide. Considered with evidence from mid-latitude Andean glaciers (16), our results argue for a common glacier response to cold conditions in the Antarctic cold reversal exceeding that of the Younger Dryas., The general warming trend during deglaciation was interrupted by cooler conditions in the Southern Hemisphere during the Atlantic cold reversal (ACR). Conversely, temperature records from Greenland reveal warm conditions during [...]

We conducted the first synchronously coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation model simulation from the Last Glacial Maximum to the Bolling-Allerod (BA) warming. Our model reproduces several major features of the deglacial climate evolution, suggesting a good agreement in climate sensitivity between the model and observations. In particular, our model simulates the abrupt BA warming as a transient response of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) to a sudden termination of freshwater discharge to the North Atlantic before the BA. In contrast to previous mechanisms that invoke AMOC multiple equilibrium and Southern Hemisphere climate forcing, we propose that the BA transition is caused by the superposition of climatic responses to the transient C[O.sub.2] forcing, the AMOC recovery from Heinrich Event 1, and an AMOC overshoot.

Historically, El Nino-like events simulated in global coupled climate models have had reduced amplitude compared to observations. Here, El Nino-like phenomena are compared in ten sensitivity experiments using two recent global coupled models. These models have various combinations of horizontal and vertical ocean resolution, ocean physics, and atmospheric model resolution. It is demonstrated that the lower the value of the ocean background vertical diffusivity, the greater the amplitude of El Nino variability which is related primarily to a sharper equatorial thermocline. Among models with low background vertical diffusivity, stronger equatorial zonal wind stress is associated with relatively higher amplitude El Nino variability along with more realistic east–west sea surface temperature (SST) gradient along the equator. The SST seasonal cycle in the eastern tropical Pacific has too much of a semiannual component with a double intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) in all experiments, and thus does not affect, nor is it affected by, the amplitude of El Nino variability. Systematic errors affecting the spatial variability of El Nino in the experiments are characterized by the eastern equatorial Pacific cold tongue regime extending too far westward into the warm pool. The time scales of interannual variability (as represented by time series of Nino3 SSTs) show significant power in the 3–4 year ENSO band and 2–2.5 year tropospheric biennial oscillation (TBO) band in the model experiments. The TBO periods in the models agree well with the observations, while the ENSO periods are near the short end of the range of 3–6 years observed during the period 1950–94. The close association between interannual variability of equatorial eastern Pacific SSTs and large-scale SST patterns is represented by significant correlations between Nino3 time series and the PC time series of the first EOFs of near-global SSTs in the models and observations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]