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Aims: To determine the relationship between exposure and weight-loss trajectories for the glucagon-like peptide-1 analogue semaglutide for weight management., Materials and Methods: Data from one 52-week, phase 2, dose-ranging trial (once-daily subcutaneous semaglutide 0.05-0.4 mg) and two 68-week phase 3 trials (once-weekly subcutaneous semaglutide 2.4 mg) for weight management in people with overweight or obesity with or without type 2 diabetes were used to develop a population pharmacokinetic (PK) model describing semaglutide exposure. An exposure-response model describing weight change was then developed using baseline demographics, glycated haemoglobin and PK data during treatment. The ability of the exposure-response model to predict 1-year weight loss based on weight data collected at baseline and after up to 28 weeks of treatment, was assessed using three independent phase 3 trials., Results: Based on population PK, exposure levels over time consistently explained the weight-loss trajectories across trials and dosing regimens. The exposure-response model had high precision and limited bias for predicting body weight loss at 1 year in independent datasets, with increased precision when data from later time points were included in the prediction., Conclusion: An exposure-response model has been established that quantitatively describes the relationship between systemic semaglutide exposure and weight loss and predicts weight-loss trajectories for people with overweight or obesity who are receiving semaglutide doses up to 2.4 mg once weekly., (© 2023 Novo Nordisk A/S. Diabetes, Obesity and Metabolism published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Objective: The absorption, distribution and elimination of oral semaglutide, the first oral glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonist for treating type 2 diabetes, was investigated using a population pharmacokinetic model based on data from clinical pharmacology trials., Methods: A previously developed, two-compartment pharmacokinetic model, based on subcutaneous and intravenous semaglutide, was extended to include data from six oral semaglutide trials conducted in either healthy volunteers or subjects with renal or hepatic impairment. Five trials employed multiple doses of oral semaglutide (5-10 mg) and one was a single-dose (10 mg) trial. In a separate analysis, the model was re-estimated using data from a trial in subjects with type 2 diabetes., Results: The model accurately described concentration profiles across trials. Post-dose fasting time, co-ingestion of a large water volume, and body weight were the most important covariates affecting semaglutide exposure. Bioavailability was 0.8% when oral semaglutide was dosed using the recommended dosing conditions (30 min post-dose fasting time, administered with ≤ 120 mL of water), increasing with a longer post-dose fasting time and decreasing with higher water volume. Within-subject variability in bioavailability was 137%, which with once-daily dosing and a long half-life translates into 33% within-subject variability in steady-state exposure. There was no significant difference in oral bioavailability of semaglutide in healthy subjects and subjects with type 2 diabetes., Conclusions: The updated model provided a general characterisation of semaglutide pharmacokinetics following oral, subcutaneous and intravenous administration in healthy subjects and subjects with type 2 diabetes. Within-individual variation of oral bioavailability was relatively high, but reduced considerably at steady state. CLINICALTRIALS., Gov Identifiers: NCT01572753, NCT01619345, NCT02014259, NCT02016911, NCT02249871, NCT02172313, NCT02877355., (© 2021. The Author(s).)

Glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1RA) are used for the treatment of type 2 diabetes. Whether clinically important responses and adverse events (AEs) are dependent on the route of administration has not been determined. We demonstrate that nearly identical exposure-response pharmacodynamic relationships are determined by plasma semaglutide levels achieved through oral versus injectable administration for changes in HbA 1c , body weight, biomarkers of cardiovascular risk, and AEs such as nausea and vomiting. At typical exposure levels for oral semaglutide, the estimated response is 1.58% (oral) versus -1.62% (subcutaneous) for HbA 1c and 3.77% (oral) versus 3.48% (subcutaneous) reduction in body weight relative to baseline after 6 months. Increased body weight is the most important variable associated with reduced semaglutide exposure for both formulations. Hence, interindividual variation in GLP-1R responsivity or route of administration are not major determinants of GLP-1RA effectiveness in the clinic., Competing Interests: R.V.O., C.L.H., S.H.I., and A.N. are full-time employees of and own stock in Novo Nordisk A/S. D.J.D. has served as an advisor or consultant or speaker within the past 12 months to Eli Lilly, Forkhead Biotherapeutics, Intarcia Therapeutics, Kallyope, Merck Research Laboratories, and Novo Nordisk, and holds non-exercised options in Kallyope., (© 2021 The Author(s).)

Context: Somapacitan is a long-acting growth hormone (GH) in development for once-weekly treatment of GH deficiency (GHD). Optimal monitoring of insulin-like growth factor-I (IGF-I) levels must account for weekly IGF-I fluctuations following somapacitan administration., Objective: To develop and assess the reliability of linear models for predicting mean and peak IGF-I levels from samples taken on different days after dosing., Design: A pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic model was used to simulate IGF-I data in adults and children following weekly somapacitan treatment of GHD., Setting and Patients: 39 200 IGF-I profiles were simulated with reference to data from 26 adults and 23 children with GHD., Intervention(s): The simulated dose range was 0.02 to 0.12 mg/kg for adults and 0.02 to 0.16 mg/kg for children. Simulated data with >4 average standard deviation score were excluded., Main Outcome Measure(s): Linear models for predicting mean and peak IGF-I levels based on IGF-I samples from different days after somapacitan dose., Results: Robust linear relationships were found between IGF-I sampled on any day after somapacitan dose and the weekly mean (R2 > 0.94) and peak (R2 > 0.84). Prediction uncertainties were generally low when predicting mean from samples taken on any day (residual standard deviation [RSD] ≤ 0.36) and peak from samples taken on day 1 to 4 (RSD ≤ 0.34). IGF-I monitoring on day 4 and day 2 after dose provided the most accurate estimate of IGF-I mean (RSD < 0.2) and peak (RSD < 0.1), respectively., Conclusions: Linear models provided a simple and reliable tool to aid optimal monitoring of IGF-I by predicting mean and peak IGF-I levels based on an IGF-I sample following dosing of somapacitan. A short visual summary of our work is available (1)., (© The Author(s) 2020. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Endocrine Society.)

Aims: To investigate the impact on weight loss of the treatment changes in overweight or obese people that may be needed in case of gastrointestinal (GI) tolerability issues during escalation of the glucagon-like peptide-1 analogue liraglutide., Materials and Methods: The individual longitudinal body weight data from the main trial periods of three phase II/III trials in overweight or obese patients (56-week treatment with once-daily liraglutide 1.2, 1.8, 2.4 or 3.0 mg or placebo, n = 4952) were analysed using a non-linear mixed-effect modelling approach. Individual pharmacokinetic profiles were derived based on published pharmacokinetic models. Baseline body weight, baseline glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c), age, gender, diabetes status (no diabetes, prediabetes or type 2 diabetes), race and trial region were investigated as covariates. As a form of external validation, the model was used to predict the weight regain after treatment cessation at week 56 (data not included in model development)., Results: A pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic model provided an adequate description of the weight loss trajectories for all studied doses. Gender and diabetes status were identified as the most influential covariates, and an underlying seasonal weight fluctuation was identified. Slower than that recommended, one-week dose-escalation algorithms led up to 2 weeks slower initial weight loss but similar long-term weight loss trajectories., Conclusions: The relationship between liraglutide systemic exposure and weight loss was successfully established in overweight or obese people. The model could predict the time course of weight regain after treatment cessation and suggests that GI tolerability can be mitigated by slower escalation with only minor impact on the weight loss trajectory., (© 2020 The Authors. Diabetes, Obesity and Metabolism published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Combinations of pharmacological treatments are increasingly being investigated for potentially higher clinical benefit, especially when the combined drugs are expected to act via synergistic interactions. The clinical development of combination treatments is particularly challenging, particularly during the dose-selection phase, where a vast range of possible combination doses exists. The purpose of this work was to evaluate the added value of using optimal design for guiding the dose allocation in drug combination dose-finding studies as compared with a typical drug-combination trial. Optimizations were performed using local [D(s)-optimality] and global [ED(s)-optimality] optimal designs to maximize the precision of model parameters in a number of potential exposure-response (E-R) surfaces. A compound criterion [D(s)/V-optimality] was used to optimize the precision of model predictions in specific parts of the E-R surfaces. Optimal designs provided unbiased estimates and significantly improved the accuracy of results relative to the typical design. It was possible to improve the efficiency and overall parameter precision up to 7832% and 96.6% respectively. When the compound criterion was used, the probability to accurately identify the optimal dose-combination increased from 71% for the typical design up to 91%. These results indicate that optimal design methodology in tandem with E-R analyses is a beneficial tool that can be used for appropriate dose allocation in dose-finding studies for drug combinations.

Introduction: The aim of the present analysis was to characterise the absorption, distribution and elimination of semaglutide by means of population pharmacokinetic (PK) models using data from nine clinical pharmacology trials conducted in both healthy subjects and those with type 2 diabetes., Methods: Data were obtained from trials with subcutaneous and intravenous administration of semaglutide that utilised frequent PK sampling and included a total of 353 subjects with 10,573 concentration values., Results: Semaglutide PK properties across trials, drug product strengths and populations were well characterised by a two-compartment model with first-order absorption and elimination. For a typical subject with type 2 diabetes, clearance was estimated to be 0.0348 L/h [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.0327-0.0369 L/h], and the central and peripheral volumes were estimated to be 3.59 L (95% CI 3.28-3.90 L) and 4.10 L (95% CI 3.78-4.42 L), respectively (i.e. a total volume of distribution of 7.7 L). Interindividual variation was low (~ 15%) for both clearance and volumes of distribution, with low residual error (< 5%). Clearance and the total volume of distribution were approximately proportional to body weight. Minor differences were identified between healthy subjects and subjects with type 2 diabetes with respect to clearance and absorption rate, and between injection sites with respect to bioavailability., Conclusions: A novel two-compartment model was developed to provide the general characteristics of semaglutide absorption following subcutaneous administration, and of distribution and elimination across administration routes. Semaglutide PK was shown to be predictable across populations and administration routes and within subjects, and was primarily influenced by body weight., Funding: Novo Nordisk, Bagsværd, Denmark.

Background: Somapacitan, a long-acting growth hormone (GH) derivative, has been well-tolerated in children with GH deficiency (GHD) and adults (healthy and adult GHD), in phase I, single- and multiple-dose trials, respectively, and has pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic properties supporting a once-weekly dosing regimen., Objective: In the absence of a multiple-dose phase I trial in children with GHD, the aim was to develop a pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic model to predict somapacitan exposure and insulin-like growth factor-I (IGF-I) response after once-weekly multiple doses in both children and adults with GHD., Methods: Pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic models were developed from pharmacokinetic and IGF-I profiles in three phase I trials of somapacitan (doses: healthy adults, 0.01-0.32 mg/kg; adult with GHD, 0.02-0.12 mg/kg; children with GHD, 0.02-0.16 mg/kg) using non-linear mixed-effects modeling. Pharmacokinetics were described using a non-linear one-compartment model with dual first- and zero-order absorption through a transit compartment, with saturable elimination. IGF-I profiles were described using an indirect response pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic model, with sigmoidal-effect relationship., Results: The non-linear pharmacokinetic and IGF-I data were well-described in order to confidently predict pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic profiles after multiple doses in adults and children with GHD. Body weight was found to be a significant covariate, predictive of the differences observed in the pharmacokinetics and pharmacodynamics between children and adults. Weekly dosing of somapacitan provided elevated IGF-I levels throughout the week, despite little or no accumulation of somapacitan, in both adults and children with GHD., Conclusion: This analysis of somapacitan pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic data supports once-weekly dosing in adults and children with GHD., Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov identifier numbers NCT01514500, NCT01706783, NCT01973244.

Aims: Semaglutide is a glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) analogue approved for the treatment of type 2 diabetes. The impact of switching treatment from another GLP-1 receptor agonist (GLP-1RA) to semaglutide was investigated by analyses of exposure-response models., Methods: HbA1c and body weight time-course models were developed, using up to 30 weeks of observations from four trials in the semaglutide phase 3 programme. Given the recommended dosing for each GLP-1RA, pharmacokinetic profiles were simulated based on published population pharmacokinetic models and exposure was adjusted by the relative potencies to ensure that model predictions matched the effects observed in clinical trials. After 26 weeks of simulated treatment with liraglutide, dulaglutide or exenatide extended-release, simulated semaglutide treatment was initiated 1 day after the last once-daily dose of liraglutide and 1 week after the last once-weekly doses of dulaglutide or exenatide extended-release., Results: The potency-adjusted total effective GLP-1RA concentration increased after switching from another GLP-1RA to semaglutide and was associated with reductions ranging from ~0.3% to ~0.8%-points for HbA1c and from ~2% to ~4% for body weight with semaglutide 1.0 mg. Temporary slight deteriorations in HbA1c were observed after switching to semaglutide 0.25 mg from liraglutide 1.2/1.8 mg or dulaglutide 1.5 mg., Conclusions: Exposure-response modelling suggests that switching to semaglutide from liraglutide, dulaglutide or exenatide extended-release results in further reductions in HbA1c and body weight. Initial slight deterioration in outcome values when switching to semaglutide 0.25 mg could be avoided by initiating semaglutide treatment at a higher dose., (© 2018 The Authors. Diabetes, Obesity and Metabolism published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Aims: To evaluate dose levels for semaglutide, a glucagon-like peptide-1 analogue approved for the treatment of type 2 diabetes, by examining the effects of demographic factors on efficacy and safety in an exposure-response analysis., Methods: We analysed data from 1552 adults from four randomized phase III trials of 30 to 56 weeks' duration, investigating once-weekly semaglutide doses 0.5 and 1.0 mg. Exposure-response relationships were investigated using graphical and model-based techniques to assess the two dose levels and subgroups with the highest and lowest exposure and response., Results: The population had the following demographic characteristics: baseline mean age between 53.2 and 58.4 years, glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) between 64 and 67 mmol/mol (8.0% and 8.3%), body weight between 71.3 and 96.2 kg, and diabetes duration between 4.2 and 8.9 years. Exposure-response analysis showed a clear HbA1c and weight reduction across exposures after 30 weeks, irrespective of baseline values. The exposure-response for HbA1c was influenced by baseline HbA1c, and body weight exposure-response was influenced by sex, with limited impact of other factors. Analyses for relevant subgroups of baseline body weight, baseline HbA1c and sex indicated clinically relevant additional benefits with regard to HbA1c and weight with 1.0 vs 0.5 mg semaglutide. The proportion of participants reporting gastrointestinal (GI) side effects increased with increasing exposure, but was counteracted by tolerance development., Conclusions: The analysis showed that all subgroups obtained a clinically relevant benefit with semaglutide 0.5 mg and an additional benefit with semaglutide 1.0 mg. The increase in GI side effects with higher exposure was mitigated by gradually increasing the dose., (© 2018 The Authors. Diabetes, Obesity and Metabolism published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Introduction: Semaglutide, a new treatment option approved for the treatment of patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus, is a glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonist to be injected subcutaneously once weekly. This analysis used a population pharmacokinetic model of semaglutide to identify clinically relevant covariates for exposure., Methods: A total of 1612 patients with up to seven pharmacokinetic observations each were included in the analysis. All subjects had type 2 diabetes mellitus and were enrolled in one of five trials in the phase III development program for subcutaneous semaglutide once weekly (the SUSTAIN program). The treatment duration of the trials varied from 30 to 104 weeks., Results: No clinically relevant effects on the exposure were seen for sex, age, race, ethnicity, renal function, or injection site used, and semaglutide exposure was stable over time. Of the covariates chosen, only body weight had a relevant effect on the exposure of semaglutide. Few subjects developed semaglutide antibodies, and the antibodies had no effect on exposure. Dose proportionality was shown for the 0.5 mg and 1.0 mg maintenance doses of semaglutide., Conclusion: The population pharmacokinetic study showed that semaglutide exposure is not affected by covariates other than body weight at either a maintenance dose of 0.5 or 1.0 mg semaglutide. Therefore, we conclude that no semaglutide dose adjustments are needed in different populations. This finding is to be further explored in an exposure-response analysis., Trial Registration: The trials were registered at ClinicalTrials.gov (identifiers: NCT02054897, NCT01930188, NCT01885208, NCT01720446 and NCT02207374)., Funding: Novo Nordisk A/S, Bagsværd, Denmark.

The exposure-response relationship of combinatory drug effects can be quantitatively described using pharmacodynamic interaction models, which can be used for the selection of optimal dose combinations. The aim of this simulation study was to evaluate the reliability of parameter estimates and the probability for accurate dose identification for various underlying exposure-response profiles, under a number of different phase II designs. An efficacy variable driven by the combined exposure of two theoretical compounds was simulated and model parameters were estimated using two different models, one estimating all parameters and one assuming that adequate previous knowledge for one drug is readily available. Estimation of all pharmacodynamic parameters under a realistic, in terms of sample size and study design, phase II trial, proved to be challenging. Inaccurate estimates were found in all exposure-response scenarios, except for situations where no pharmacodynamic interaction was present, with the drug potency and interaction parameters being the hardest to estimate. When previous knowledge of the exposure-response relationship of one of the monocomponents is available, such information should be utilized, as it enabled relevant improvements in parameter estimation and in correct dose identification. No general trends for classification of the performance of the tested study designs across different scenarios could be identified. This study shows that pharmacodynamic interactions models can be used for the exposure-response analysis of clinical endpoints especially when accompanied by appropriate dose selection in regard to the expected drug potencies and appropriate trial size and if information regarding the exposure-response profile of one monocomponent is available.

Objective: Anti-NKG2D (NNC0142-0002) is an antagonising human immunoglobulin G4 monoclonal antibody that binds to natural killer group 2 member D (NKG2D) receptors, which are expressed by T cells and innate lymphoid cells, and may be linked to mucosal damage in Crohn's disease (CD)., Design: Seventy-eight patients (aged ≥18 and ≤75 years) with CD for ≥3 months, Crohn's Disease Activity Index (CDAI) ≥220 and ≤450 and either C-reactive protein ≥10 mg/L or endoscopic evidence of inflammation, were randomised 1:1 to a single subcutaneous (SC) dose of 2 mg/kg anti-NKG2D or placebo. Primary endpoint was change in CDAI (ΔCDAI) from baseline to week 4. Prespecified significance level was 10% for CDAI endpoints. A futility analysis was instituted due to slow recruitment., Results: Primary endpoint was not significantly different between anti-NKG2D and placebo (week 4 ΔCDAI=-16); however, there was a significant difference by week 12 (ΔCDAI=-55; p≤0.10). Significant improvements were noted in the non-failure to biologics subgroup (treated with anti-NKG2D (n=28)) from week 1 onward. Greater effects of anti-NKG2D were also observed in patients with baseline CDAI ≥330. Frequencies of adverse events (AEs) were comparable between anti-NKG2D and placebo. Most AEs were mild (49%) or moderate (43%). No antidrug antibodies were observed., Conclusions: A single SC dose of 2 mg/kg anti-NKG2D did not reduce disease activity at week 4 versus placebo, but the difference was significant at week 12, and effects were evident in key subgroups. These data support further development of anti-NKG2D in IBD., Trial Registration Number: NCT01203631., (Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.)

Background and Objectives: This analysis used a population pharmacokinetic approach to identify covariates that influence plasma exposure of liraglutide 3.0 mg, a glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) receptor agonist approved for weight management in overweight and obese individuals., Methods: Samples for pharmacokinetic analysis were drawn at weeks 2, 12 and 28 of the phase IIIa SCALE Obesity and Prediabetes (N = 2339) and SCALE Diabetes (N = 584) trials. Dose proportionality of liraglutide in obese subjects was investigated using data from a phase II dose-finding study (N = 331)., Results: Dose-proportional exposure of liraglutide up to and including 3.0 mg was confirmed. Body weight and sex influenced exposure of liraglutide 3.0 mg, while age ≥70 years, race, ethnicity and baseline glycaemic status did not. Compared with a reference subject weighing 100 kg, exposure of liraglutide 3.0 mg was 44 % lower for a subject weighing 234 kg (90 % CI 41-47), 41 % higher for a subject weighing 60 kg (90 % CI 37-46), and 32 % higher (90 % CI 28-35) in females than males with the same body weight. Neither injection site nor renal function significantly influenced exposure of liraglutide 3.0 mg (post hoc analysis)., Conclusion: Population pharmacokinetics of liraglutide up to and including 3.0 mg daily in overweight and obese adults demonstrated dose-proportional exposure, and limited effect of covariates other than sex and body weight. These findings were similar to those previously observed with liraglutide up to 1.8 mg in subjects with type 2 diabetes mellitus. Further analysis of exposure-response relationship and its effect on dose requirements is addressed in a separate publication., Competing Interests: Rune V. Overgaard, Kristin C. Petri, Lisbeth V. Jacobsen and Christine B. Jensen are all employees of, and shareholders in, Novo Nordisk A/S. No other relationships or activities appear to have influenced the submitted work.

Aims: Liraglutide 3.0 mg, an acylated GLP-1 analogue approved for weight management, lowers body weight through decreased energy intake. We conducted exposure-response analyses to provide important information on individual responses to given drug doses, reflecting inter-individual variations in drug metabolism, absorption and excretion., Methods: We report efficacy and safety responses across a wide range of exposure levels, using data from one phase II (liraglutide doses 1.2, 1.8, 2.4 and 3.0 mg), and two phase IIIa [SCALE Obesity and Prediabetes (3.0 mg); SCALE Diabetes (1.8; 3.0 mg)] randomized, placebo-controlled trials (n = 4372)., Results: There was a clear exposure-weight loss response. Weight loss increased with greater exposure and appeared to level off at the highest exposures associated with liraglutide 3.0 mg in most individuals, but did not fully plateau in men. In individuals with overweight/obesity and comorbid type 2 diabetes, there was a clear exposure-glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) relationship. HbA1c reduction increased with higher plasma liraglutide concentration (plateauing at ∼21 nM); however, for individuals with baseline HbA1c >8.5%, HbA1c reduction did not fully plateau. No exposure-response relationship was identified for any safety outcome, with the exception of gastrointestinal adverse events (AEs). Individuals with gallbladder AEs, acute pancreatitis or malignant/breast/benign colorectal neoplasms did not have higher liraglutide exposure compared with the overall population., Conclusions: These analyses support the use of liraglutide 3.0 mg for weight management in all subgroups investigated; weight loss increased with higher drug exposure, with no concomitant deterioration in safety/tolerability besides previously known gastrointestinal side effects., (© 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Introduction: NNC0109-0012, a novel human monoclonal antibody that binds to and neutralizes the activity of interleukin-20, was investigated as a potential treatment for inflammatory diseases. Pharmacokinetic (PK) modeling was performed using data from four completed clinical phase 1/2 trials to better understand the clinical PK of NNC0109-0012., Methods: The populations included were patients with rheumatoid arthritis (RA), chronic plaque psoriasis, and healthy volunteers. NNC0109-0012 was administered subcutaneously at various dose levels (0.01-3 mg/kg) as single dose, once weekly, or multiple doses every second week for up to 12 doses. Noncompartmental methods were used to describe the PK parameters. Population PK was analyzed using nonlinear mixed-effects modeling, with body weight as the main covariate and gender, age, and population as additional covariates., Results: Across studies (N = 116), mean age and body weight ranged from 38 to 58 years and 72 to 96 kg, respectively. NNC0109-0012 displays linear PK. Time to maximum plasma concentration occurred at approximately 1 week, and the terminal half-life was approximately 3 weeks. Clearance and volume of distribution increased proportionally to body weight. No difference in clearance or volume of distribution was observed between gender or different age groups; however, clearance was slightly lower in healthy volunteers than in patients with RA., Conclusion: The PK profile of NNC0109-0012 is similar to other monoclonal antibodies directed against soluble targets.

Context: Ethnic differences have previously been reported for type 2 diabetes., Objective: We aimed at assessing the potential differences between Caucasian and Japanese subjects ranging from normal glucose tolerance (NGT) to impaired glucose tolerance (IGT) and to type 2 diabetes., Design: This was a cross-sectional study with oral glucose tolerance tests to assess β-cell function, hepatic insulin extraction, and insulin sensitivity., Participants: PARTICIPANTS included 120 Japanese and 150 Caucasian subjects., Main Outcomes: Measures of β-cell function, hepatic extraction, and insulin sensitivity were assessed using C-peptide, glucose, and insulin minimal models., Results: Basal β-cell function (Φ(b)) was lower in Japanese compared with Caucasians (P < .01). In subjects with IGT, estimates of the dynamic (Φ(d)) and static (Φ(s)) β-cell responsiveness were significantly lower in the Japanese compared with Caucasians (P < .05). In contrast, values of insulin action showed higher sensitivity in the Japanese IGT subjects. Hepatic extraction was similar in NGT and IGT groups but higher in Japanese type 2 diabetic subjects (P < .01). Despite differences in insulin sensitivity, β-cell function, and hepatic extraction, the disposition indices were similar between the 2 ethnic groups at all glucose tolerance states. Furthermore, the overall insulin sensitivity and β-cell responsiveness for all glucose tolerance states were similar in Japanese and Caucasians after accounting for differences in body mass index., Conclusion: Our study provides evidence for a similar ability of Japanese and Caucasians to compensate for increased insulin resistance.

Introduction: Concizumab (mAb 2021) is a monoclonal IgG4 antibody (mAb) that binds to the Kunitz-type protease inhibitor (KPI) 2 domain of TFPI thereby blocking the interaction of this domain with the active site of FXa. The objective of the present study was to characterize the pharmacokinetics of concizumab in Cynomolgus monkeys after intravenous (iv) and subcutaneous (sc) administration., Methods: Data from two studies were included in the modelling, all in all data from 52 monkeys distributed into 9 groups. Three groups received three escalating sc doses of concizumab with a one week dosing interval, two groups were administered a single dose, and four groups received multiple doses over 13 weeks of concizumab. The plasma concentration was measured using a standard ELISA, and pharmacokinetic data were analysed using NONMEM., Results: The pharmacokinetics of concizumab were characterised by a high bioavailability (93%) after sc administration. The time course of the elimination of concizumab from the circulation was well described by the proposed target mediated drug disposition (TMDD) model. The clearance of concizumab was estimated to be 0.14 ml/h/kg, the target clearance was characterized by a 50% saturation level of 0.54 μg/ml (Km), and the clearance at target saturation was estimated to be 11 μg/h/kg., Conclusion: Concizumab displays a typical TMDD profile with important implications for a putative treatment regime in haemophilia patients. Compared to current standard haemophilia treatment, concizumab has a high bioavailability after sc administration and may provide a viable alternative to intravenous dosing for the treatment of haemophilia., (Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

OBJECTIVE This cross-sectional clinical study compared the pathophysiology of type 2 diabetes in Japanese and Caucasians and investigated the role of demographic, genetic, and lifestyle-related risk factors for insulin resistance and β-cell response. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS A total of 120 Japanese and 150 Caucasians were enrolled to obtain comparable distributions of high/low BMI values across glucose tolerance states (normal glucose tolerance, impaired glucose tolerance, and type 2 diabetes), which were assessed by oral glucose tolerance tests. BMI in the two cohorts was distributed around the two regional cutoff values for obesity. RESULTS Insulin sensitivity was higher in Japanese compared with Caucasians, as indicated by the homeostatic model assessment of insulin resistance and Matsuda indices, whereas β-cell response was higher in Caucasians, as measured by homeostatic model assessment of β-cell function, the insulinogenic indices, and insulin secretion ratios. Disposition indices were similar for Japanese and Caucasians at all glucose tolerance states, indicating similar β-cell response relative to the degree of insulin resistance. The main determinants for differences in metabolic indices were measures of body composition, such as BMI and distribution of adipose tissue. Differences in β-cell response between Japanese and Caucasians were not statistically significant following adjustment by differences in BMI. CONCLUSIONS Our study showed similar disposition indices in Japanese and Caucasians and that the major part of the differences in insulin sensitivity and β-cell response between Japanese and Caucasians can be explained by differences in body composition.

GLP-1 is an insulinotropic hormone that synergistically with glucose gives rise to an increased insulin response. Its secretion is increased following a meal and it is thus of interest to describe the secretion of this hormone following an oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT). The aim of this study was to build a mechanism-based population model that describes the time course of total GLP-1 and provides indices for capability of secretion in each subject. The goal was thus to model the secretion of GLP-1, and not its effect on insulin production. Single 75 g doses of glucose were administered orally to a mixed group of subjects ranging from healthy volunteers to patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D). Glucose, insulin, and total GLP-1 concentrations were measured. Prior population data analysis on measurements of glucose and insulin were performed in order to estimate the glucose absorption rate. The individual estimates of absorption rate constants were used in the model for GLP-1 secretion. Estimation of parameters was performed using the FOCE method with interaction implemented in NONMEM VI. The final transit/indirect-response model obtained for GLP-1 production following an OGTT included two stimulation components (fast, slow) for the zero-order production rate. The fast stimulation was estimated to be faster than the glucose absorption rate, supporting the presence of a proximal-distal loop for fast secretion from L: -cells. The fast component (st₃) = 8.64·10⁻⁵ [mg⁻¹]) was estimated to peak around 25 min after glucose ingestion, whereas the slower component (st₄ = 26.2·10⁻⁵ [mg⁻¹]) was estimated to peak around 100 min. Elimination of total GLP-1 was characterised by a first-order loss. The individual values of the early phase GLP-1 secretion parameter (st₃) were correlated (r = 0.52) with the AUC(0-60 min.) for GLP-1. A mechanistic population model was successfully developed to describe total GLP-1 concentrations over time observed after an OGTT. The model provides indices related to different mechanisms of subject abilities to secrete GLP-1. The model provides a good basis to study influence of different demographic factors on these components, presented mainly by indices of the fast- and slow phases of GLP-1 response.

Interleukin (IL)-21 is an attractive antitumor agent with potent immunomodulatory functions. Yet thus far, the cytokine has yielded only partial responses in solid cancer patients, and conditions for beneficial IL-21 immunotherapy remain elusive. The current work aims to identify clinically-relevant IL-21 regimens with enhanced efficacy, based on mathematical modeling of long-term antitumor responses. For this purpose, pharmacokinetic (PK) and pharmacodynamic (PD) data were acquired from a preclinical study applying systemic IL-21 therapy in murine solid cancers. We developed an integrated disease/PK/PD model for the IL-21 anticancer response, and calibrated it using selected "training" data. The accuracy of the model was verified retrospectively under diverse IL-21 treatment settings, by comparing its predictions to independent "validation" data in melanoma and renal cell carcinoma-challenged mice (R(2)>0.90). Simulations of the verified model surfaced important therapeutic insights: (1) Fractionating the standard daily regimen (50 µg/dose) into a twice daily schedule (25 µg/dose) is advantageous, yielding a significantly lower tumor mass (45% decrease); (2) A low-dose (12 µg/day) regimen exerts a response similar to that obtained under the 50 µg/day treatment, suggestive of an equally efficacious dose with potentially reduced toxicity. Subsequent experiments in melanoma-bearing mice corroborated both of these predictions with high precision (R(2)>0.89), thus validating the model also prospectively in vivo. Thus, the confirmed PK/PD model rationalizes IL-21 therapy, and pinpoints improved clinically-feasible treatment schedules. Our analysis demonstrates the value of employing mathematical modeling and in silico-guided design of solid tumor immunotherapy in the clinic.

Several articles have investigated stochastic differential equations (SDEs) in PK/PD models, but few have quantitatively investigated the benefits to predictive performance of models based on real data. Estimation of first phase insulin secretion which reflects beta-cell function using models of the OGTT is a difficult problem in need of further investigation. The present work aimed at investigating the power of SDEs to predict the first phase insulin secretion (AIR (0-8)) in the IVGTT based on parameters obtained from the minimal model of the OGTT, published by Breda et al. (Diabetes 50(1):150-158, 2001). In total 174 subjects underwent both an OGTT and a tolbutamide modified IVGTT. Estimation of parameters in the oral minimal model (OMM) was performed using the FOCE-method in NONMEM VI on insulin and C-peptide measurements. The suggested SDE models were based on a continuous AR(1) process, i.e. the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, and the extended Kalman filter was implemented in order to estimate the parameters of the models. Inclusion of the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU) process caused improved description of the variation in the data as measured by the autocorrelation function (ACF) of one-step prediction errors. A main result was that application of SDE models improved the correlation between the individual first phase indexes obtained from OGTT and AIR (0-8) (r = 0.36 to r = 0.49 and r = 0.32 to r = 0.47 with C-peptide and insulin measurements, respectively). In addition to the increased correlation also the properties of the indexes obtained using the SDE models more correctly assessed the properties of the first phase indexes obtained from the IVGTT. In general it is concluded that the presented SDE approach not only caused autocorrelation of errors to decrease but also improved estimation of clinical measures obtained from the glucose tolerance tests. Since, the estimation time of extended models was not heavily increased compared to basic models, the applied method is concluded to have high relevance not only in theory but also in practice.

The extension from ordinary to stochastic differential equations (SDEs) in pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic (PK/PD) modelling is an emerging field and has been motivated in a number of articles [N.R. Kristensen, H. Madsen, S.H. Ingwersen, Using stochastic differential equations for PK/PD model development, J. Pharmacokinet. Pharmacodyn. 32 (February(1)) (2005) 109-141; C.W. Tornøe, R.V. Overgaard, H. Agersø, H.A. Nielsen, H. Madsen, E.N. Jonsson, Stochastic differential equations in NONMEM: implementation, application, and comparison with ordinary differential equations, Pharm. Res. 22 (August(8)) (2005) 1247-1258; R.V. Overgaard, N. Jonsson, C.W. Tornøe, H. Madsen, Non-linear mixed-effects models with stochastic differential equations: implementation of an estimation algorithm, J. Pharmacokinet. Pharmacodyn. 32 (February(1)) (2005) 85-107; U. Picchini, S. Ditlevsen, A. De Gaetano, Maximum likelihood estimation of a time-inhomogeneous stochastic differential model of glucose dynamics, Math. Med. Biol. 25 (June(2)) (2008) 141-155]. PK/PD models are traditionally based ordinary differential equations (ODEs) with an observation link that incorporates noise. This state-space formulation only allows for observation noise and not for system noise. Extending to SDEs allows for a Wiener noise component in the system equations. This additional noise component enables handling of autocorrelated residuals originating from natural variation or systematic model error. Autocorrelated residuals are often partly ignored in PK/PD modelling although violating the hypothesis for many standard statistical tests. This article presents a package for the statistical program R that is able to handle SDEs in a mixed-effects setting. The estimation method implemented is the FOCE(1) approximation to the population likelihood which is generated from the individual likelihoods that are approximated using the Extended Kalman Filter's one-step predictions.

The non-linear mixed-effects model based on stochastic differential equations (SDEs) provides an attractive residual error model, that is able to handle serially correlated residuals typically arising from structural mis-specification of the true underlying model. The use of SDEs also opens up for new tools for model development and easily allows for tracking of unknown inputs and parameters over time. An algorithm for maximum likelihood estimation of the model has earlier been proposed, and the present paper presents the first general implementation of this algorithm. The implementation is done in Matlab and also demonstrates the use of parallel computing for improved estimation times. The use of the implementation is illustrated by two examples of application which focus on the ability of the model to estimate unknown inputs facilitated by the extension to SDEs. The first application is a deconvolution-type estimation of the insulin secretion rate based on a linear two-compartment model for C-peptide measurements. In the second application the model is extended to also give an estimate of the time varying liver extraction based on both C-peptide and insulin measurements.

Interleukin-21 (IL-21) is a novel cytokine that is currently under clinical investigations as a potential anti-cancer agent. Like many other anti-cancer agents, including other interleukins, IL-21 is seen to produce a broad range of biological effects that may be related to both efficacy and safety of treatment. The present analysis investigates the observed pharmacodynamics effects on red blood cells following various treatment schedules of human IL-21 administrated to cynomolgus monkeys. These effects are described by a novel non-linear mixed-effects model that enabled separation of drug effects and sampling effects, the latter believed to be due partly to blood loss and partly to stress induced haemolysis in connection with blood sampling. Two different studies with a total of 9 different treatment groups of cynomolgus monkeys were used for model development. In conclusion, the model describes the IL-21 induced drop in red blood cells to be (1) caused by removal rather than suppression of production, consistent with increased reticulocyte concentration, and (2) considerably delayed compared to dosing, i.e. not related to the drop in red blood cells observed immediately post dose. It is believed that the structural model presented here can be used for other types of drug induced loss of red blood cells, whereas the mechanism for sampling related blood loss is relevant for investigations of anaemia in all pharmacological studies with smaller animals.

Purpose: To describe the pharmacodynamic effects of recombinant human interleukin-21 (IL-21) on core body temperature in cynomolgus monkeys using basic mechanisms of heat regulation. A major effort was devoted to compare the use of ordinary differential equations (ODEs) with stochastic differential equations (SDEs) in pharmacokinetic pharmacodynamic (PKPD) modelling., Methods: A temperature model was formulated including circadian rhythm, metabolism, heat loss, and a thermoregulatory set-point. This model was formulated as a mixed-effects model based on SDEs using NONMEM., Results: The effects of IL-21 were on the set-point and the circadian rhythm of metabolism. The model was able to describe a complex set of IL-21 induced phenomena, including 1) disappearance of the circadian rhythm, 2) no effect after first dose, and 3) high variability after second dose. SDEs provided a more realistic description with improved simulation properties, and further changed the model into one that could not be falsified by the autocorrelation function., Conclusions: The IL-21 induced effects on thermoregulation in cynomolgus monkeys are explained by a biologically plausible model. The quality of the model was improved by the use of SDEs.

Evaluation of beta cell function is conducted by a variety of glucose tolerance tests and evaluated by a number of different models with less than perfect consistency among results obtained from different tests. We formulated a new approximation of the distributed threshold model for insulin secretion in order to approach a model for quantifying beta cell function, not only for one, but for several different experiments. Data was obtained from 40 subjects that had both an oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) and an intravenous tolerance test (IVGTT) performed. Parameter estimates from the two experimental protocols demonstrate similarity, reproducibility, and indications of prognostic relevance. Useful first phase indexes comprise the steady state amount of ready releasable insulin A0 and the rate of redistribution krd, where both yield a considerable correlation (both r=0.67) between IVGTT and OGTT estimates. For the IVGTT, A0 correlates well (r=0.96) with the 10 min area under the curve of insulin above baseline, whereas krd represents a new and possibly more fundamental first phase index. For the useful second phase index gamma, a correlation of 0.75 was found between IVGTT and OGTT estimates.

The present work introduces an extension of the original minimal model of second phase insulin secretion during the intravenous glucose tolerance test (IVGTT), which can provide both physiological and mathematical insights to the minimal model. The extension is named the mean-field beta cell model since it returns the average response of a large number of nonlinear secretory entities. Several secretion models have been proposed for the IVGTT, and we shall identify two fundamentally different theoretical features of these models. Both features can play a central role during the IVGTT, including the one presented in the mean-field beta cell model.

Purpose: The objective of the present analysis was to explore the use of stochastic differential equations (SDEs) in population pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic (PK/PD) modeling., Methods: The intra-individual variability in nonlinear mixed-effects models based on SDEs is decomposed into two types of noise: a measurement and a system noise term. The measurement noise represents uncorrelated error due to, for example, assay error while the system noise accounts for structural misspecifications, approximations of the dynamical model, and true random physiological fluctuations. Since the system noise accounts for model misspecifications, the SDEs provide a diagnostic tool for model appropriateness. The focus of the article is on the implementation of the Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) in NONMEM for parameter estimation in SDE models., Results: Various applications of SDEs in population PK/PD modeling are illustrated through a systematic model development example using clinical PK data of the gonadotropin releasing hormone (GnRH) antagonist degarelix. The dynamic noise estimates were used to track variations in model parameters and systematically build an absorption model for subcutaneously administered degarelix., Conclusions: The EKF-based algorithm was successfully implemented in NONMEM for parameter estimation in population PK/PD models described by systems of SDEs. The example indicated that it was possible to pinpoint structural model deficiencies, and that valuable information may be obtained by tracking unexplained variations in parameters.

Pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic modelling is most often performed using non-linear mixed-effects models based on ordinary differential equations with uncorrelated intra-individual residuals. More sophisticated residual error models as e.g. stochastic differential equations (SDEs) with measurement noise can in many cases provide a better description of the variations, which could be useful in various aspects of modelling. This general approach enables a decomposition of the intra-individual residual variation epsilon into system noise w and measurement noise e. The present work describes implementation of SDEs in a non-linear mixed-effects model, where parameter estimation was performed by a novel approximation of the likelihood function. This approximation is constructed by combining the First-Order Conditional Estimation (FOCE) method used in non-linear mixed-effects modelling with the Extended Kalman Filter used in models with SDEs. Fundamental issues concerning the proposed model and estimation algorithm are addressed by simulation studies, concluding that system noise can successfully be separated from measurement noise and inter-individual variability.