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When replacing equipment at its end of life, industries often have the option to select higher efficiency technologies. The choice to invest in an improved piece of equipment rather than a simple in-kind replacement is driven by many factors, including costs, performance, and familiarity with new technology options. Engineering models that account for equipment stock turnover, such as ENERGY 2020, typically assume that this decision is primarily driven by the difference in marginal costs: higher up front capital costs must be, at minimum, balanced by lower lifetime energy costs for an upgrade to be pursued. Stock turnover analysis requires detailed data inputs regarding the costs and performance of new equipment. For simplicity, a common approach is to develop assumed correlations that reflect the trade-off between marginal capital cost and efficiency and compare these to energy prices to select an efficiency level for new equipment. In this study, we present a novel method to develop such trade-off curves based on a technology-explicit approach rather than a qualitative correlation assumption. We generate trade-off curves for two common types of industrial devices: electric machine drive and natural gas steam generation for the case study of the Canadian pulp and paper sector. The curves demonstrate that the efficiency of new devices can be expected to vary significantly based on energy prices. At current energy prices, we find that newly purchased machine drive and steam generation devices would have an optimal efficiency level of 91% and 75%, respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The urgent challenge of reducing industrial greenhouse gas emissions has created a growing demand for a more comprehensive understanding of how various technology options can contribute to achieving carbon neutrality. Energy efficiency has long been regarded as a key pathway in this context, but the volume and diversity of efficiency options has resulted in an unclear understanding of their combined impacts. In this study, we present a novel technology-explicit method to estimate the overall abatement potential associated with a comprehensive suite of 115 energy efficiency technologies spanning all relevant sector processes and energy types. By applying our flexible analysis framework to a case study of the Canadian pulp and paper sector, we demonstrate that energy efficiency could be the single largest contributor to achieving a carbon-neutral target for the sector. We find that efficiency can reduce emissions by 4.92 MtCO 2 e/yr (66%) relative to business-as-usual by 2050 at a weighted average abatement cost of -$162/tCO 2 e when accounting for capital, operating, maintenance, and energy costs. Abatement at the energy system-wide level is even larger, reaching 6.67 MtCO 2 e in 2050 when accounting for upstream effects. Adoption of the full suite of efficiency measures could materially improve the competitiveness of the sector by reducing energy and carbon costs. On the whole, our results suggest that proven energy efficiency technologies could be the primary element of a credible low-cost pathway towards achieving a target of carbon neutrality for the pulp and paper sector. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

[Display omitted] • Novel method to estimate total technical potential for improving energy efficiency. • Bottom-up sector energy model used to characterize energy demands and opportunities. • Technology-explicit analysis framework used to estimate integrated energy savings. • Application to Canada's pulp & paper sector indicates major savings are possible. • Technical potential to reduce natural gas use by 95% and net electricity by 54% Industrial energy efficiency has long been recognized as a critical tool for energy management and emissions reduction and is increasingly considered to be an energy resource in its own right. However, the complexity of most industrial sectors creates barriers for modellers, companies, and policymakers in understanding and achieving the overall potential for efficiency-driven energy savings. To address this gap, we have developed a novel method that combines disaggregated bottom-up sector energy modelling with analysis of a comprehensive set of technology-explicit energy efficiency measures. This approach overcomes the deficiencies of top-down analyses and better represents the complexities of multi-measure efficiency investments compared to piecewise studies of individual measures. In this study, we demonstrated application of our method to the case of the Canadian pulp and paper sector. Our analysis shows that the sector can reduce its natural gas and electricity use by 95% and 41%, respectively, by adopting economical efficiency measures. This equates to 71 PJ of natural gas and 44 PJ of electricity saved annually and would result in cost savings of $81 per tonne of output sector-wide. Notably, we find that efficiency and fuel switching have the technical potential to reduce natural gas consumption by 98% across the sector. Taken together, the results provide quantitative evidence that energy efficiency is an underestimated resource for cost-effective energy savings in the Canadian pulp and paper sector. Our analysis framework can be applied to any industrial sector in any region to provide insights regarding energy conservation strategies and policy design. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]