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Background: Cystic fibrosis (CF) is an inherited condition characterised by the abnormal transport of chloride ions across transporting epithelia. This leads to the production of thick sticky mucus in the lungs, pancreas, liver, intestine and reproductive tract, and an increase in the salt content in sweat. Among other problems, people with CF experience recurrent respiratory infections and have difficulties digesting food. CF affects over 9000 individuals in the UK. CF shortens life expectancy and adversely affects quality of life. In 2010, CF was recorded as the cause of 103 deaths in England and Wales. Objective: To evaluate the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of colistimethate sodium dry powder for inhalation (DPI) (Colobreathe®, Forest Laboratories) and tobramycin DPI (TOBI Podhaler®, Novartis Pharmaceuticals) for the treatment of Pseudomonas aeruginosa lung infection in CF. Data sources: Electronic databases were searched in February and March 2011 [MEDLINE, MEDLINE In-Process & Other Non-Indexed citations, EMBASE, The Cochrane Library databases, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL), Web of Science, Conference Proceedings Citation Index (CPCI) and Bioscience Information Service (BIOSIS) Previews]. Relevant databases were searched for ongoing and unpublished studies, and bibliographies of relevant systematic reviews and the manufacturers’ submissions were also hand-searched. Review methods: A systematic review of the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of colistimethate sodium DPI and tobramycin DPI for the treatment of chronic P. aeruginosa lung infection in CF was conducted. Existing economic evidence within the literature was reviewed and a de novo health economic model was also developed. Results: Three randomised controlled trials (RCTs) were included in the clinical effectiveness review. Both colistimethate sodium DPI and tobramycin DPI were reported to be non-inferior to nebulised tobramycin for the outcome forced expiratory volume in first second percentage predicted (FEV1%). It was not possible to draw any firm conclusions as to the relative efficacy of colistimethate sodium DPI compared with tobramycin DPI. The economic analysis suggests that colistimethate sodium DPI produces fewer quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) than nebulised tobramycin. Given the incremental discounted lifetime cost of tobramycin DPI compared with nebulised tobramycin, it highly unlikely that tobramycin DPI has an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio that is better than £30,000 per QALY gained. Limitation: The uncertainty surrounding the short-term evidence base inevitably results in uncertainty surrounding the long-term clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of colistimethate sodium DPI. Conclusions: Both DPI formulations have been shown to be non-inferior to nebulised tobramycin as measured by FEV1%. The results of these trials should be interpreted with caution owing to the means by which the results were analysed, the length of follow-up, and concerns about the ability of FEV1% to accurately represent changes in lung health. Although the increase in QALYs is expected to be lower with colistimethate sodium DPI than with nebulised tobramycin, a price for this intervention had not been agreed at the time of the assessment. Depending on the price of colistimethate sodium DPI, this results either in a situation whereby colistimethate sodium DPI is dominated by nebulised tobramycin or in one whereby the incremental cost-effectiveness of nebulised tobramycin compared with colistimethate sodium DPI is in the range of £24,000–277,000 per QALY gained. The economic analysis also suggests that, given its price, it is unlikely that tobramycin DPI has a cost-effectiveness ratio of

Background: National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) clinical guidelines (CGs) make recommendations across large, complex care pathways for broad groups of patients. They rely on cost-effectiveness evidence from the literature and from new analyses for selected high-priority topics. An alternative approach would be to build a model of the full care pathway and to use this as a platform to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of multiple topics across the guideline recommendations. Objectives: In this project we aimed to test the feasibility of building full guideline models for NICE guidelines and to assess if, and how, such models can be used as a basis for cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA). Data sources: A ‘best evidence’ approach was used to inform the model parameters. Data were drawn from the guideline documentation, advice from clinical experts and rapid literature reviews on selected topics. Where possible we relied on good-quality, recent UK systematic reviews and meta-analyses. Review methods: Two published NICE guidelines were used as case studies: prostate cancer and atrial fibrillation (AF). Discrete event simulation (DES) was used to model the recommended care pathways and to estimate consequent costs and outcomes. For each guideline, researchers not involved in model development collated a shortlist of topics suggested for updating. The modelling teams then attempted to evaluate options related to these topics. Cost-effectiveness results were compared with opinions about the importance of the topics elicited in a survey of stakeholders. Results: The modelling teams developed simulations of the guideline pathways and disease processes. Development took longer and required more analytical time than anticipated. Estimates of cost-effectiveness were produced for six of the nine prostate cancer topics considered, and for five of eight AF topics. The other topics were not evaluated owing to lack of data or time constraints. The modelled results suggested ‘economic priorities’ for an update that differed from priorities expressed in the stakeholder survey. Limitations: We did not conduct systematic reviews to inform the model parameters, and so the results might not reflect all current evidence. Data limitations and time constraints restricted the number of analyses that we could conduct. We were also unable to obtain feedback from guideline stakeholders about the usefulness of the models within project time scales. Conclusions: Discrete event simulation can be used to model full guideline pathways for CEA, although this requires a substantial investment of clinical and analytic time and expertise. For some topics lack of data may limit the potential for modelling. There are also uncertainties over the accessibility and adaptability of full guideline models. However, full guideline modelling offers the potential to strengthen and extend the analytical basis of NICE’s CGs. Further work is needed to extend the analysis of our case study models to estimate population-level budget and health impacts. The practical usefulness of our models to guideline developers and users should also be investigated, as should the feasibility and usefulness of whole guideline modelling alongside development of a new CG. Funding: This project was funded by the Medical Research Council and the National Institute for Health Research through the Methodology Research Programme [grant number G0901504] and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 17, No. 58. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Background: In older age, reduction in physical function can lead to loss of independence, the need for hospital and long-term nursing or residential home care, and premature death. Home-visiting programmes for older people, carried out by nurses and other health-care professionals (e.g. occupational therapists and physiotherapists), aim to positively affect health and functional status, and may promote independent functioning of older people. Objective: The main research question addressed by this assessment is ‘What is the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of home-based, nurse-led health promotion intervention for older people in the UK?’ Data sources: A comprehensive literature search was undertaken across 12 different databases and research registries from the year 2001 onwards (including MEDLINE, MEDLINE in Process & Other Non-Indexed Citations, EMBASE, Science Citation Index Expanded, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, NHS Health Economic Evaluation Database, Health Technology Assessment Database, Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effects, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature). Published systematic reviews were also hand searched to identify other trials previously published. Review methods: Potentially relevant studies were sifted by one reviewer, and inclusion decisions were agreed among the broader research team. The methodological quality of included studies was assessed using the Cochrane Risk of Bias tool. The results of included studies were synthesised using narrative and statistical methods. A separate systematic search was undertaken to identify existing health economic analyses of home-based, nurse-led health promotion programmes. Included studies were critically appraised using a published checklist. Owing to resource constraints, a de novo health economic model was not developed. Results: Eleven studies were included in the systematic review of clinical effectiveness. There was considerable heterogeneity among the studies with respect to the nature of the intervention, the nurses delivering the programmes and the populations in which the interventions were assessed. Overall, the quality of the included studies was good: all but one of the included studies were judged to be at medium or low risk of bias. Meta-analysis of eight studies suggested a statistically significant mortality benefit for the home-based health promotion groups, whereas a meta-analysis of four studies suggested non-significant benefits in terms of fewer falls in the intervention groups than in the control groups. Positive outcomes for home-based, nurse-led health promotion interventions were also reported within individual studies across several other outcomes. Only three economic studies met the criteria for inclusion in the review of cost-effectiveness. This evidence base consists of one non-randomised cost minimisation analysis and two economic evaluations undertaken alongside randomised controlled trials. Two of these studies involved an intervention targeted specifically at patients with a known underlying incurable disease, whereas the third study examined the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of early discharge in patients with a range of conditions, including fractures, neurological conditions and cardiorespiratory conditions. Each study indicated some likelihood that home-based, nurse-led health promotion may offer cost savings to the NHS and associated sectors, such as social services. However, one study did not report any comparison of health outcomes and instead simply assumed equivalence between the intervention and comparator groups, whereas the other two studies suggested at best a negligible incremental benefit in terms of preference-based health-related quality-of-life measures. Limitations: The evidence base for clinical effectiveness is subject to considerable heterogeneity. The UK economic evidence base is limited to three studies. Conclusions: On the basis of the evidence included in this systematic review, home-based, nurse-led health promotion may offer clinical benefits across a number of important health dimensions. However, it is generally unclear from the available studies which components of this type of complex intervention contribute towards individual aspects of benefit for older people. Given the limitations of the current evidence base, it remains unclear whether or not home-based health promotion interventions offer good value for money for the NHS and associated sectors. Given the considerable uncertainties in the available evidence base, it is difficult to isolate the key areas in which future research would be valuable or the exact study design required. Although this report does not identify specific studies that should be undertaken, it does set out a number of key considerations for the design of future research in this area. Study registration: PROSPERO number: CRD42012002133. Funding: The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

Background: Colorectal cancer (CRC) is the third most common cancer in the UK: incidence increases with age, median age at diagnosis being over 70 years. Approximately 25% of cases occur in individuals with a family history of CRC, including 5% caused by familial adenomatous polyposis (FAP) or hereditary non-polyposis CRC (HNPCC). Most develop from adenomatous polyps arising from the intestine lining. Individuals with these polyps undergo polypectomy and are invited for endoscopic surveillance. Screening via faecal occult blood testing has been rolled out across the UK. Objectives: To evaluate the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of drug and micronutrient interventions for the prevention of CRC and/or adenomatous polyps. Interventions considered include: non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs), including aspirin and cyclo-oxygenase-2 (COX-2) inhibitors; folic acid; calcium; vitamin D and antioxidants (including vitamin A, vitamin C, vitamin E, selenium and beta-carotene). Chemoprevention was assessed in the general population, in individuals at increased risk of CRC, and in individuals with FAP or HNPCC. Data sources: A systematic review identified randomised controlled trials (RCTs) assessing drug and nutritional agents for the prevention of CRC or adenomatous polyps. A separate search identified qualitative studies relating to individuals’ views, attitudes and beliefs about chemoprevention. MEDLINE, MEDLINE In-Process & Other Non-Indexed Citations, EMBASE, CINAHL, the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, Cochrane CENTRAL Register of Controlled Trials, DARE, NHS-EED (NHS Economic Evaluation Database), HTA database, Science Citation Index, BIOSIS previews and the Current Controlled Trials research register were searched in June 2008. Data were extracted by one reviewer and checked by a second. Review methods: The synthesis methods used were systematic review and meta-analysis for RCTs and qualitative framework synthesis for qualitative studies. A health economic model was developed to assess the cost-effectiveness of chemoprevention for two populations with different levels of risk of developing CRC: the general population and an intermediate-risk population. Results: The search identified 44 relevant RCTs and six ongoing studies. A small study of aspirin in FAP patients produced no statistically significant reduction in polyp number but a possible reduction in polyp size. There was a statistically significant 21% reduction in risk of adenoma recurrence [relative risk (RR) 0.79, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.68 to 0.92] in an analysis of aspirin versus no aspirin in individuals with a history of adenomas or CRC. In the general population, a significant 26% reduction in CRC incidence was demonstrated in studies with a 23-year follow-up (RR 0.74, 95% CI 0.57 to 0.97). Non-aspirin NSAID use in FAP individuals produced a non-statistically significant reduction in adenoma incidence after 4 years of treatment and follow-up and reductions in polyp number and size. In individuals with a history of adenomas there was a statistically significant 34% reduction in adenoma recurrence risk (RR 0.66, 95% CI 0.60 to 0.72) and a statistically significant 55% reduction in advanced adenoma incidence (RR 0.45, 95% CI 0.35 to 0.58). No studies assessed the effect of non-aspirin NSAIDs in the general population. There were no studies of folic acid in individuals with FAP or HNPCC. There was no significant effect of folic acid versus placebo on adenoma recurrence (RR 1.16, 95% CI 0.97 to 1.39) or advanced adenoma incidence in individuals with a history of adenomas. In the general population there was no significant effect of folic acid on risk of CRC (RR 1.13, 95% CI 0.77 to 1.64), although studies were of relatively short duration. Calcium use by FAP patients produced no significant reduction in polyp number or disease progression. In individuals with a history of adenomas there was a statistically significant 18% reduction in risk of adenoma recurrence (RR 0.82, 95% CI 0.69 to 0.98) and a non-significant reduction in risk of advanced adenomas (RR 0.77, 95% CI 0.50 to 1.17). In the general population there was no significant effect of calcium on risk of CRC (RR 1.08, 95% CI 0.87 to 1.34), although studies were of relatively short duration. There were no studies of antioxidant use in individuals with FAP or HNPCC, and in individuals with a history of adenomas no statistically significant differences in relative risk of adenoma recurrence were found. In the general population there was no difference in incidence of CRC (RR 1.00, 95% CI 0.88 to 1.13) with antioxidant use compared with no antioxidant use. Twenty studies reported qualitative findings concerning chemoprevention. People are more likely to use NSAIDs if there is a strong perceived need. Perceptions of risk and benefit also influence decision-making and use. People have fewer concerns about using antioxidants or other supplements, but their perception of the benefits of these agents is less well-defined. The model analysis suggested that the most cost-effective age-range policy in the general population would be to provide chemoprevention to all individuals within the general population from age 50 to 60 years. The use of aspirin in addition to screening within the general population is likely to result in a discounted cost per life-year gained of around £10,000 and a discounted cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained of around £23,000 compared with screening alone. In the intermediate-risk group the most economically viable age-range policy would be to provide chemoprevention to individuals following polypectomy aged 61 to 70 years. Calcium is likely to have a discounted cost per QALY gained of around £8000 compared with screening alone. Although aspirin in addition to screening should be more effective and less costly than screening alone, under the current assumptions of benefits to harms of aspirin and calcium, aspirin is expected to be extendedly dominated by calcium. Limitations: Whilst a number of studies were included in the review, the duration of follow-up was generally insufficient to detect an effect on cancer incidence. Given the uncertainties and ambiguities in the evidence base, the results of the health economic analysis should be interpreted with caution. Conclusions: Aspirin and celecoxib may reduce recurrence of adenomas and incidence of advanced adenomas in individuals with an increased risk of CRC and calcium may reduce recurrence of adenomas in this group. COX-2 inhibitors may decrease polyp number in patients with FAP. There is some evidence for aspirin reducing the incidence of CRC in the general population. Both aspirin and NSAIDs are associated with adverse effects so it will be important to consider the risk–benefit ratio before recommending these agents for chemoprevention. The economic analysis suggests that chemoprevention has the potential to represent a cost-effective intervention, particularly when targeted at intermediate-risk populations following polypectomy.

Background: Health policy decisions must be relevant, evidence-based and transparent. Decision-analytic modelling supports this process but its role is reliant on its credibility. Errors in mathematical decision models or simulation exercises are unavoidable but little attention has been paid to processes in model development. Numerous error avoidance/identification strategies could be adopted but it is difficult to evaluate the merits of strategies for improving the credibility of models without first developing an understanding of error types and causes. Objectives: The study aims to describe the current comprehension of errors in the HTA modelling community and generate a taxonomy of model errors. Four primary objectives are to: (1) describe the current understanding of errors in HTA modelling; (2) understand current processes applied by the technology assessment community for avoiding errors in development, debugging and critically appraising models for errors; (3) use HTA modellers’ perceptions of model errors with the wider non-HTA literature to develop a taxonomy of model errors; and (4) explore potential methods and procedures to reduce the occurrence of errors in models. It also describes the model development process as perceived by practitioners working within the HTA community. Data sources: A methodological review was undertaken using an iterative search methodology. Exploratory searches informed the scope of interviews; later searches focused on issues arising from the interviews. Searches were undertaken in February 2008 and January 2009. In-depth qualitative interviews were performed with 12 HTA modellers from academic and commercial modelling sectors. Review methods: All qualitative data were analysed using the Framework approach. Descriptive and explanatory accounts were used to interrogate the data within and across themes and subthemes: organisation, roles and communication; the model development process; definition of error; types of model error; strategies for avoiding errors; strategies for identifying errors; and barriers and facilitators. Results: There was no common language in the discussion of modelling errors and there was inconsistency in the perceived boundaries of what constitutes an error. Asked about the definition of model error, there was a tendency for interviewees to exclude matters of judgement from being errors and focus on ‘slips’ and ‘lapses’, but discussion of slips and lapses comprised less than 20% of the discussion on types of errors. Interviewees devoted 70% of the discussion to softer elements of the process of defining the decision question and conceptual modelling, mostly the realms of judgement, skills, experience and training. The original focus concerned model errors, but it may be more useful to refer to modelling risks. Several interviewees discussed concepts of validation and verification, with notable consistency in interpretation: verification meaning the process of ensuring that the computer model correctly implemented the intended model, whereas validation means the process of ensuring that a model is fit for purpose. Methodological literature on verification and validation of models makes reference to the Hermeneutic philosophical position, highlighting that the concept of model validation should not be externalised from the decision-makers and the decision-making process. Interviewees demonstrated examples of all major error types identified in the literature: errors in the description of the decision problem, in model structure, in use of evidence, in implementation of the model, in operation of the model, and in presentation and understanding of results. The HTA error classifications were compared against existing classifications of model errors in the literature. A range of techniques and processes are currently used to avoid errors in HTA models: engaging with clinical experts, clients and decision-makers to ensure mutual understanding, producing written documentation of the proposed model, explicit conceptual modelling, stepping through skeleton models with experts, ensuring transparency in reporting, adopting standard housekeeping techniques, and ensuring that those parties involved in the model development process have sufficient and relevant training. Clarity and mutual understanding were identified as key issues. However, their current implementation is not framed within an overall strategy for structuring complex problems. Limitations: Some of the questioning may have biased interviewees responses but as all interviewees were represented in the analysis no rebalancing of the report was deemed necessary. A potential weakness of the literature review was its focus on spreadsheet and program development rather than specifically on model development. It should also be noted that the identified literature concerning programming errors was very narrow despite broad searches being undertaken. Conclusions: Published definitions of overall model validity comprising conceptual model validation, verification of the computer model, and operational validity of the use of the model in addressing the real-world problem are consistent with the views expressed by the HTA community and are therefore recommended as the basis for further discussions of model credibility. Such discussions should focus on risks, including errors of implementation, errors in matters of judgement and violations. Discussions of modelling risks should reflect the potentially complex network of cognitive breakdowns that lead to errors in models and existing research on the cognitive basis of human error should be included in an examination of modelling errors. There is a need to develop a better understanding of the skills requirements for the development, operation and use of HTA models. Interaction between modeller and client in developing mutual understanding of a model establishes that model’s significance and its warranty. This highlights that model credibility is the central concern of decision-makers using models so it is crucial that the concept of model validation should not be externalised from the decision-makers and the decision-making process. Recommendations for future research would be studies of verification and validation; the model development process; and identification of modifications to the modelling process with the aim of preventing the occurrence of errors and improving the identification of errors in models.

Objectives: To evaluate the clinical effectiveness and incremental cost-effectiveness of amantadine, oseltamivir and zanamivir for seasonal and post-exposure prophylaxis of influenza. Data sources: A MEDLINE search strategy was used and searches were carried out in July 2007. Review methods: An independent health economic model was developed based on a review of existing cost-effectiveness models and clinical advice.The model draws together a broad spectrum of evidence relating to the costs and consequences associated with influenza and its prevention. Where direct evidence concerning the effectiveness of prophylaxis within specific model subgroups was lacking, the model uses estimates from mixed subgroups or extrapolates from other mutually exclusive subgroups. Results: Twenty-six published references relating to 22 randomised controlled trials (RCTs) were included in the clinical effectiveness review, along with one unpublished report. Eight, six and nine RCTs were included for amantadine, oseltamivir and zanamivir respectively. The study quality was variable and gaps in the evidence base limited the assessment of the clinical effectiveness of the interventions. For seasonal prophylaxis, there was limited evidence for the efficacy of amantadine in preventing symptomatic, laboratory-confirmed influenza (SLCI) in healthy adults [relative risk (RR) 0.40, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.08–2.03]. Oseltamivir was effective in preventing SLCI, particularly when used in at-risk elderly subjects (RR 0.08, 95% CI 0.01–0.63). The preventative efficacy of zanamivir was most notable in at-risk adults and adolescents (RR 0.17, 95% CI 0.07–0.44), and healthy and at-risk elderly subjects (RR 0.20, 95% CI 0.02–1.72). For post-exposure prophylaxis, data on the use of amantadine were again limited: in adolescents an RR of 0.10 (95% CI 0.03–0.34) was reported for the prevention of SLCI. Oseltamivir was effective in households of mixed composition (RR 0.19, 95% CI 0.08–0.45). The efficacy of zanamivir in post-exposure prophylaxis within households was also reported (RR 0.21, 95% CI 0.13–0.33). Interventions appeared to be well tolerated. Limited evidence was available for the effectiveness of the interventions in preventing complications and hospitalisation and in minimising length of illness and time to return to normal activities. No clinical effectiveness data were identified for health-related quality of life or mortality outcomes. With the exception of at-risk children, the incremental cost–utility of seasonal influenza prophylaxis is expected to be in the range £38,000–£428,000 per QALY gained (depending on subgroup). The cost-effectiveness ratios for oseltamivir and zanamivir as post-exposure prophylaxis are expected to be below £30,000 per QALY gained in healthy children, at-risk children, healthy elderly and at-risk elderly individuals. Despite favourable clinical efficacy estimates, the incorporation of recent evidence of viral resistance to amantadine led to it being dominated in every economic comparison. Conclusions: All three interventions showed some efficacy for seasonal and post-exposure prophylaxis. However, weaknesses and gaps in the clinical evidence base are directly relevant to the interpretation of the health economic model and rendered the use of advanced statistical analyses inappropriate. These data limitations should be borne in mind in interpreting the findings of the review.

The 2022 Tel Aviv conference on the many-worlds interpretation of quantum mechanics highlighted many differences between theorists. A very significant dichotomy is between Everettian fission (splitting) and Saunders–Wallace–Wilson divergence. For fission, an observer may have multiple futures, whereas for divergence they always have a single future. Divergence was explicitly introduced to resolve the problem of pre-measurement uncertainty for Everettian theory, which is universally believed to be absent for fission. Here I maintain that there is indeed pre-measurement uncertainty prior to fission, so long as objective probability is a property of Everettian branches. This is made possible if the universe is a set and branches are subsets with a probability measure. A universe that is a set of universes that are macroscopically isomorphic and span all possible configurations of local beäbles fulfills that role. If objective probability is a property of branches, then a successful Deutsch–Wallace decision-theoretic argument would justify the Principal Principle and be part of probability theory rather than specific to many-worlds theory. Any macroscopic object in our environment becomes a set of isomorphs with different microscopic configurations, each in an elemental universe (elemental in the set-theoretic sense). This is similar to the many-interacting-worlds theory, but the observer inhabits the set of worlds, not an individual world. An observer has many elemental bodies.

In 1999, Alberta Transportation and Economic Corridors (TEC) implemented the Geohazard Risk Management Program (GRMP) to identify, assess, monitor, and prioritize the mitigation of risk resulting from geohazard events at specific sites along the provincial highway network. The GRMP was developed to address a variety of geohazard types including rockfall hazards that occur at natural and constructed (cut) highway backslopes. An evaluation of various methods for the condition assessment of rockfall geohazards, including TEC’s current GRMP risk rating system, has been completed with the intent of better understanding the suitability of each method as TEC transitions to a formalized GAM program. The GRMP risk rating values for selected rockfall geohazard sites along highway corridors in Alberta were compared to values developed from the results of five established rock mass and rock slope rating systems. The results of this study demonstrate that TEC’s current GRMP risk rating system is a viable tool for the condition assessment and performance monitoring of rockfall geohazards, which could be utilized within a formalized GAM program, further benefitting from years of recorded application in Alberta. Of the other rating systems tested, the rockfall hazard rating system (RHRS) showed a strong correlation with the GRMP risk rating while Q-Slope, the Geological Strength Index (GSI) and Rock Mass Rating (RMR) correlation were marginal but displayed a potential for use as condition assessment tools. The work presented in this paper provides the first evaluation of rock slope rating systems for rockfall hazards along corridors in Alberta, directly comparing them to the slope performance as observed by TEC in a quantitative manner.

BackgroundWhole disease models (WDM) are large-scale, system-level models which can evaluate multiple decision questions across an entire care pathway. Whilst this type of model can offer several advantages as a platform for undertaking economic analyses, the availability and quality of existing WDMs is unknown.ObjectivesThis systematic review aimed to identify existing WDMs to explore which disease areas they cover, to critically assess the quality of these models and provide recommendations for future research.MethodsAn electronic search was performed on multiple databases (MEDLINE, EMBASE, the NHS Economic Evaluation Database and the Health Technology Assessment database) on 23rd July 2023. Two independent reviewers selected studies for inclusion. Study quality was assessed using the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) appraisal checklist for economic evaluations. Model characteristics were descriptively summarised.ResultsForty-four WDMs were identified, of which thirty-two were developed after 2010. The main disease areas covered by existing WDMs are heart disease, cancer, acquired immune deficiency syndrome and metabolic disease. The quality of included WDMs is generally low. Common limitations included failure to consider the harms and costs of adverse events (AEs) of interventions, lack of probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA) and poor reporting.ConclusionsThere has been an increase in the number of WDMs since 2010. However, their quality is generally low which means they may require significant modification before they could be re-used, such as modelling AEs of interventions and incorporation of PSA. Sufficient details of the WDMs need to be reported to allow future reuse/adaptation.