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The 2021 Mw 5.9 Woods Point event is the largest onshore earthquake that has occurred in the recorded history of southeastern Australia since European settlement. To study its source and ground-motion characteristics and to extract information for local seismic hazard analysis, we employ a stochastic finite-fault simulation approach to simulate ground motions for this event based on the observations collected from 36 onshore stations. We determine the regional distance-dependent attenuation parameters using the horizontal Fourier acceleration amplitude spectrum in the frequency range of 0.1–20 Hz. We parameterize path parameters using different models to consider uncertainties and sensitivities. To investigate local site effects, we construct a VS30-based site amplification model. Source parameters are then determined by fitting the theoretical Brune’s ω2 model with a reference Fourier source spectrum at 1.0 km. The κ0 value for the reference rock site is estimated as κ0=0.01 s, and dynamic stress drop is found to be 41.0 MPa by minimizing the overall absolute residual of 5% damped pseudospectral acceleration. We validate the simulations by comparing simulated and observed ground motions in terms of various intensity measurements; analyses of residuals show that the simulations are in good agreement with observations (average residual is close to 0). To facilitate future probabilistic seismic hazard analysis, six selected ground-motion models are ranked using the deviance information criteria based on an independent data set consisting of field observations and simulated ground motions.

The Kahramanmaraş earthquake sequence caused strong shaking and extensive damage in central-south Türkiye and northwestern Syria, making them the deadliest earthquakes in the region for multiple centuries. The rupture of the first mainshock (M7.8) initiated just south of the East Anatolian Fault (EAF) and then ruptured bilaterally hundreds of km of the EAF, causing major stress changes in the region and triggering the second mainshock (M7.6) about 9 hours later. We mapped the surface ruptures of the two mainshocks using pixel-offset tracking of Sentinel-1 radar images and find them to be ~300 km and 100-150 km long. The distribution of aftershocks indicates that the fault ruptures may have been even longer at depth, or about ~350 km and ~170 km, respectively. The pixel-tracking results and finite-fault modeling of the spatially variable fault slip show up to 7 and 8 m of surface fault offsets at the two faults, respectively, and that fault slip was shallow in both events, mostly above 15 km. In addition, our back-projection analysis suggests the first mainshock ruptured from the hypocenter to the northeast towards the EAF (first ~15 sec), then continued along it to the northeast (until ~55 sec), and also to the southwest towards the Hatay province, later at high rupture speeds (until ~80 sec). Furthermore, strong motion recordings show PGA values up to 2g and are particularly severe in Hatay, where multiple stations show over 0.5g PGA values. Both events are characterized by abrupt rupture cessation, generating strong stopping phases that likely contributed to the observed high shaking levels. Together the results show that directivity effects, high rupture speed, strong stopping phases, and local site effects all contributed to the intensive shaking and damage in the Hatay province.

Frictional heat generated in the fault core during earthquake rupture can raise the fluid pressure in the slip zone. Such increase of fluid pressure decreases the effective normal stress and thereby lowers the frictional strength of the fault. Therefore, thermal pressurization (TP) of pore fluid affects earthquake rupture processes including nucleation, propagation, and arrest. While the effects of pore pressure and fluid flow rate on dynamic weakening of faults are qualitatively understood, a detailed analysis of how TP affects earthquake rupture parameters is needed to further deepen our understanding. In this study, we investigate the role of two key TP parameters -- hydraulic diffusivity and shear-zone half-width -- earthquake dynamics and kinematic source properties (slip, peak slip-rate, rupture speed and rise time). We conduct a suite of 3D dynamic rupture simulations applying a rate-and-state dependent friction law (with strong velocity weakening) coupled with thermal-pressurization of pore fluids. Simulations are carried out with the open source software SeisSol (www.seissol.org). The temporal evolution of rupture parameters over ~1’000 randomly distributed on-fault receivers is statistically analyzed in terms of mean variations of rupture parameters and correlations among rupture parameters. Our simulations reveal that mean slip decreases with increasing hydraulic diffusivity, whereas mean peak slip-rate and rupture speed remain nearly constant. On the other hand, we observe only a slight decrease of mean slip with increasing shear-zone half-width, whereas mean peak slip-rate and rupture speed show clear decrease. The faster diffusion of pore pressure as hydraulic diffusivity increases promotes faster increase of the effective normal stress (and fault strength) behind the main rupture front, reducing the rise time and, therefore also affecting mean slip. An increase in shear-zone half- width represents a heat source distributed over larger fault normal distance causing a second-order effect on mean slip. Additionally, our simulations reveal correlations among rupture parameters: 1) slip has weak negative correlation with peak slip-rate and negligible correlation with rupture speed, but a positive correlation with rise time, 2) peak slip-rate has a strong positive correlation with rupture speed, but a strong negative correlation with rise time, 3) rupture speed has strong negative correlation with rise time. We observe little or negligible effects of variations of hydraulic diffusivity and shear-zone half- width on the correlations between rupture parameters. Overall, our study builds a fundamental understanding on how thermal pressurization of pore fluids affects dynamic and thereby kinematic earthquake rupture properties. Our findings are thus important for the earthquake source modeling community, and particularly, for assessing seismic hazard due to induced events in geo-reservoirs.

We develop a rate- and state-dependent friction (RSF) model to investigate a compendium of recent laboratory experiments, in which precursory seismicity and slow slip was recorded from the same sec...

Special thanks to Derek Keir, Finnigan Illsley-Kemp (University of Southampton), Jose A. Lopez Comino (KAUST and now at University of Granada), and Kiran K. Thingbaijam (KAUST) for the fruitful discussions which include suggesting FI technique and enhancing the moment tensor inversion and stress drop analyses. We wish to thank Felix Waldhauser (Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory) for providing the latest unpublished version of his code (HypoDD of 2019). Our project received financial support from King Abdullah University of Science and technology (KAUST) under the CRG grant (ORS-2016-CRG5-3027-0). All waveform data were obtained through the Saudi Geological Survey (SGS) and is available from Harvard Dataverses webpage (https://doi.org/10.7910/dvn/kw4zfx).

Rayleigh wave ellipticity depends, in theory, only on the Earth structure below a seismic station, offering the advantage of a “single-station” method to infer crustal properties. Therefore, ellipticity measurements can be used to construct pseudo 3-D shear velocity models of the earth structure using even seismic stations that did not record simultaneously. Based on that, we carried-out ellipticity measurements by using teleseismic waveforms recorded by the OPS seismic network we deployed at the western flank of the North Tanzanian Divergence between June 2016 and May 2018, covering 17 sites. We then expanded our measurements on the waveforms recorded by the adjacent CRAFTI seismic network from January 2013 and December 2014, available on IRIS, which comprised more than 30 sites. While the OPS network covers the transition between the Tanzania Craton and North Tanzanian Divergence, the CRAFTI network is entirely contained in the North Tanzanian Divergence. Therefore, the imaging that can be obtained by integrating the two asynchronous passive seismology experiments will help to better understand the dynamics of this segment of the eastern branch of the Eastern African Rift.Preliminary results show heterogeneity structure that are in agreement with previous tomographic studies based on ambient noise cross-correlation and body-waves arrival-times. In regions where previous seismological studies are not available, results match the known geological structure of the transition between the Tanzanian Craton and the North Tanzanian Divergence. This demonstrates that measurements of ellipticity can be a useful and integrative tool for earth structure imaging, especially at the edges of the active rifts where the seismicity is scarce.

The Dead Sea Transform fault forms the boundary between the Arabian plate and the Sinai-Levant subplate. Several aspects of this fault system have been extensively studied during the last century. However, the present-day kinematics and deformation along its southern end in the Gulf of Aqaba remain poorly understood. Here we present a crustal motion velocity field based on three GPS surveys conducted between 2015 and 2019 at 30 campaign sites, complemented by 12 permanent stations operating near the gulf. We constrained a pole of rotation for the Sinai-Levant subplate based on five selected stations on the Sinai Peninsula. This Euler pole predicts a left-lateral slip rate of ~4.5 mm/yr on the fault system in the gulf, consistent with earlier findings. We find that standard models of interseismic deformation, such as back-slip and screw dislocation models do not provide a reasonable constraint on fault locking depths due to limited near-fault measurements. Despite this, our results reveal a small (~1 mm/yr) but systematic left-lateral residual motion across the gulf that cannot be resolved by elastic models of strain accumulation. We further find that the orientation of these residuals agrees with modelled postseismic transient motions caused by the 1995 MW 7.2 Nuweiba earthquake in the NE and SW quadrants relative to the gulf trend. Combined, these observations suggest that postseismic deformation caused by the Nuweiba earthquake may still be ongoing. We anticipate our findings to be a starting point for future geodetic studies in the northern Red Sea region where large-scale infrastructure mega-projects, such as the NEOM city and the King Salman bridge across the gulf are being developed. Future studies would benefit from incorporating additional GPS stations on the Sinai side of the gulf, refined finite-fault models, seafloor geodetic measurements and better information about past earthquakes.

A driving motivator in many active tectonics studies is to learn more about the recurrence large and potentially destructive earthquakes, providing the means to assess the respective fault’s future seismic behavior. Doing so requires long records of earthquake recurrence. The lack of sufficiently long instrumental seismic records (that would be best suited for this task) has led to the development of other approaches that may constrain the recurrence of surface rupturing earthquakes along individual faults. These approaches take different forms, depending on the specific tectonic and geographic conditions of an investigated region.For example, around the Mediterranean Sea, we frequently find bedrock scarps along normal faults. Assuming that bedrock (i.e., fault free-face) exposure is caused by the occurrence of sub-sequent large earthquakes, we may measure certain rock properties to constrain the time and size of past earthquakes as well as the fault’s geologic slip-rate. A now-classic example in this regard is the measurement of 36Cl concentrations along exposed fault scarps in limestones.For the presented study, we looked at another property of the exposed fault free-face, namely its morphologic roughness. We aim to identify whether fault free-face roughness contains information to constrain earthquake occurrence and fault slip-rates following the assumption that sub-sequent exposure to the elements and sub-areal erosional conditions may leave a signal in how rough (or smooth) the fault free-face is (assuming a somewhat uniform pre-exposure roughness). Here, we present observations of fault free-face surface roughness for the Mt. Vettore fault (last ruptured in 2016) and the Rocca Preturo fault (The underlying models of fault free-face morphology were generated using the Structure-from-Motion approach and a large suite of unregistered optical images.). Employing different metrics to quantify morphologic roughness, we were indeed able to observe a) an increase in surface roughness with fault scarp height (i.e., longer exposure to sub-areal erosion causes higher roughness), and b) distinct (rather than gradual) changes in surface roughness, suggesting a correlation to individual exposure events such as earthquakes. Hence, fault free-face morphology of bedrock faults may serve as an additional metric to reconstruct earthquake recurrence patterns.

The 12 November 2017 Mw 7.3 Sarpol Zahāb earthquake is one of the largest events to have occurred in the north-western Zagros fold-and-thrust belt during the instrumental period. We use teleseismic and synthetic aperture radar data to study the earthquake source parameters, rupture process and active tectonic characteristics of the event. We find that both data sets individually produce remarkably similar slip distribution, indicative of buried faulting that is consistent with the lack of significant surface rupture. Through the joint inversion of satellite radar and teleseismic data, we find that the rupture propagated rapidly (~3.2 km/s) and asymmetrically along strike to the south, but relatively slowly (~1.5 km/s) in the updip direction, and formed a single large-slip asperity with a peak slip value close to 5 m. Given the regional tectonic context of the distribution of known faults and lithologies, we suggest that the maximum slip is either located in the lowest sedimentary cover or the uppermost basement of the Mountain Front Fault.

A new work-flow is proposed to unify the way the community shares Logistic Regression results for landslide susceptibility purposes. Although Logistic Regression models and methods have been widely used in geomorphology for several decades, no standards for presenting results in a consistent way have been adopted; most papers report parameters with different units and interpretations, therefore limiting potential meta-analytic applications. We first summarize the major differences in the geomorphological literature and then investigate each one proposing current best practices and few methodological developments. The latter is mainly represented by a widely used approach in statistics for simultaneous parameter estimation and variable selection in generalized linear models, namely the Least Absolute Shrinkage Selection Operator (LASSO). The North-easternmost sector of Sicily (Italy) is chosen as a straightforward example with well exposed debris flows induced by extreme rainfall.

We investigate the crustal and upper-mantle shear-velocity structure of Saudi Arabia by fundamental-mode Rayleigh-wave group-velocity tomography and shear-wave velocity inversion. The seismic dataset is compiled using ∼140 stations of the Saudi National Seismic Network (SNSN) operated by the Saudi Geological Survey (SGS). We measure Rayleigh-wave group-velocities at periods of 8–40 s from regional earthquakes. After obtaining 1-D shear-wave velocity models by inverting group-velocities at each grid node, we construct a 3-D shear-velocity model for Saudi Arabia and adjacent regions by interpolating the 1-D models. Our 3-D model indicates significant lateral variations in crustal and lithospheric thickness, as well as in the shear-wave velocity over the study region. In particular, we identify zones of reduced shear-wave speed at crustal levels beneath the Cenozoic volcanic fields in the Arabian Shield. The inferred reductions of 2–5% in shear-wave speed may be interpreted as possibly indicating the presence of partial melts. However, their precise origin we can only speculate about. Our study also reveals an upper-mantle low velocity zone (LVZ) below the Arabian Shield, supporting the model of lateral mantle flow from the Afar plume. Further geophysical experiments are needed to confirm (or refute) the hypothesis that partial melts may exist below the Cenozoic volcanism in western Saudi Arabia, and to build a comprehensive geodynamic–geological model for the evolution and present state of the lithosphere of the Arabian Plate and the Red Sea.

The micro-seismic signal of coal mine is obviously affected by blasting signal, which seriously affects the identification accuracy of micro-seismic signal. For this purpose, automated identification and discrimination methods exist to monitor seismicity occurrence. In this study, seismic source properties of blasting events and micro-earthquakes in the Laohutai coal mine are quantified to more accurately distinguish between these two types of events and to investigate potential physical differences between them. Besides examining the space–time evolution of micro-earthquakes in the Laohutai coal mine, source parameters of blasting events and micro-earthquakes (corner frequency f0; spectral level Ω0; seismic moment M0; moment magnitude Mw; source radius R; stress drop △σ; apparent stress σa, radiated seismic energy E) are determined and scaling relationships between them are investigated. Our results show that the number of micro-earthquakes is closely related to the mining activity. Source-spectral characteristics of blasting events are well described by the Brune omega-square model and follow in general the classical scaling relations (i.e. increasing seismic moment with decreasing corner frequency), like the source-spectral characteristics of micro-earthquakes. Importantly, for events of same magnitude, corner frequency and stress drop of blasting events are larger than for micro-earthquakes. This observation helps to improve automatic identification and discrimination of micro-seismic and blast events, thereby providing important information for (real-time) seismic hazard monitoring and risk management.

Grid-based landslide susceptibility models at regional scales are computationally demanding when using a fine grid resolution. Conversely, Slope-Unit (SU) based susceptibility models allows to investigate the same areas offering two main advantages: 1) a smaller computational burden and 2) a more geomorphologically-oriented interpretation. In this contribution, we generate SU-based landslide susceptibility for the Sado Island in Japan. This island is characterized by deep-seated landslides which we assume can only limitedly be explained by the first two statistical moments (mean and variance) of a set of predictors within each slope unit. As a consequence, in a nested experiment, we first analyse the distributions of a set of continuous predictors within each slope unit computing the standard deviation and quantiles from 0.05 to 0.95 with a step of 0.05. These are then used as predictors for landslide susceptibility. In addition, we combine shape indices for polygon features and the normalized extent of each class belonging to the outcropping lithology in a given SU. This procedure significantly enlarges the size of the predictor hyperspace, thus producing a high level of slope-unit characterization. In a second step, we adopt a LASSO-penalized Generalized Linear Model to shrink back the predictor set to a sensible and interpretable number, carrying only the most significant covariates in the models. As a result, we are able to document the geomorphic features (e.g., 95% quantile of Elevation and 5% quantile of Plan Curvature) that primarily control the SU-based susceptibility within the test area while producing high predictive performances. The implementation of the statistical analyses are included in a parallelized R script (LUDARA) which is here made available for the community to replicate analogous experiments.

The authors thank Jagdish Vyas for the support in getting Support Operator Rupture Dynamics (SORD) running and help in preparing the simulations and the team at the King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST) Super Computing Laboratory for their technical support. The authors would also like to thank Arthur Rodgers and two anonymous reviewers who contributed to the clarity and quality of this article. The research presented in this article is supported by KAUST in Thuwal, Saudi Arabia, through Grants BAS/1/1339-01-01 and URF/1/2160-01-01.

We develop new empirical scaling laws for rupture width W, rupture length L, rupture area A, and average slip D, based on a large database of rupture models.The database incorporates recent earthquake source models in a wide magnitude range (Mw 5.4–9.2) and events of various faulting styles. We apply general orthogonal regression, instead of ordinary least-squares regression, to account for measurement errors of all variables and to obtain mutually self-consistent relationships.We observe that L grows more rapidly with Mw compared to W. The fault-aspectratio (L=W) tends to increase with fault dip, which generally increases from reversefaulting, to normal-faulting, to strike-slip events. At the same time, subduction-interface earthquakes have significantly higher W (hence a larger rupture area A) compared to other faulting regimes. For strike-slip events, the growth of W with Mw is strongly inhibited, whereas the scaling of L agrees with the L-model behavior (D correlated with L). However, at a regional scale for which seismogenic depth is essentially fixed, the scaling behavior corresponds to the W model (D not correlated with L). Selfsimilar scaling behavior with Mw − log10 A is observed to be consistent for all the cases, except for normal-faulting events. Interestingly, the ratio D=W (a proxy for average stress drop) tends to increase with Mw, except for shallow crustal reversefaulting events, suggesting the possibility of scale-dependent stress drop.The observed variations in source-scaling properties for different faulting regimes can be interpreted in terms of geological and seismological factors. We find substantial differences between our new scaling relationships and those of previous studies. Therefore, our study provides critical updates on source-scaling relations needed in seismic–tsunami-hazard analysis and engineering applications.

We develop a framework for assessing the sensitivity and variability of tsunami inundation characteristics for stochastic physics-based scenarios of mega-thrust subduction earthquakes. The method is applied to the 2011 Tohoku, Japan earthquake, and tested against observed inundation maps at several locations along the Tohoku coast, using 11 different, previously published, rupture models for this devastating tsunamgenic earthquake. The earthquake rupture models differ in fault dimension (length and width), geometry (dip, strike and top-edge depth), as well as asperity characteristics (slip heterogeneity on the fault plane). The resulting source variability allows exploring a wide range of tsunami scenarios for an M w 9 mega-thrust subduction earthquake in the Tohoku region to conduct thorough sensitivity analyses and to quantify the inundation variability. The numerical results indicate a strong influence of the reference source models on inundation variability, and demonstrate significant sensitivity of inundation to the details of the rupture realization. Therefore, relying on a single particular earthquake rupture model as a representative case when varying earthquake source characteristics may lead to under-representation of the variability of potential scenarios. Moreover, the proposed framework facilitates the rigorous development of critical scenarios for tsunami hazard and risk assessments, which are particularly useful for tsunami hazard mapping and disaster preparedness planning.

Geological faults comprise large-scale segmentation and small-scale roughness. These multi-scale geometrical complexities determine the dynamics of the earthquake rupture process, and therefore affect the radiated seismic wavefield. In this study, we examine how different parameterizations of fault roughness lead to variability in the rupture evolution and the resulting near-fault ground motions. Rupture incoherence naturally induced by fault roughness generates high-frequency radiation that follows an ω-2 decay in displacement amplitude spectra. Because dynamic rupture simulations are computationally expensive, we test several kinematic source approximations designed to emulate the observed dynamic behavior. When simplifying the rough-fault geometry, we find that perturbations in local moment tensor orientation are important, while perturbations in local source location are not. Thus, a planar fault can be assumed if the local strike, dip, and rake are maintained. We observe that dynamic rake angle variations are anti-correlated with the local dip angles. Testing two parameterizations of dynamically consistent Yoffe-type source-time function, we show that the seismic wavefield of the approximated kinematic ruptures well reproduces the radiated seismic waves of the complete dynamic source process. This finding opens a new avenue for an improved pseudo-dynamic source characterization that captures the effects of fault roughness on earthquake rupture evolution. By including also the correlations between kinematic source parameters, we outline a new pseudo-dynamic rupture modeling approach for broadband ground-motion simulation.

In this study, earthquake rupture models for future mega-thrust earthquakes in the Nankai-Tonankai subduction zone are developed by incorporating the main characteristics of inverted source models of the 2011 Tohoku earthquake. These scenario ruptures also account for key features of the national tsunami source model for the Nankai-Tonankai earthquake by the Central Disaster Management Council of the Japanese Government. The source models capture a wide range of realistic slip distributions and kinematic rupture processes, reflecting the current best understanding of what may happen due to a future mega-earthquake in the Nankai-Tonankai Trough, and therefore are useful for conducting probabilistic tsunami hazard and risk analysis. A large suite of scenario rupture models is then used to investigate the variability of tsunami effects in coastal areas, such as off-shore tsunami wave heights and on-shore inundation depths, due to realistic variations in source characteristics. Such investigations are particularly valuable for tsunami hazard mapping and evacuation planning in municipalities along the Nankai-Tonankai coast.

Whether changes in animal behavior allow for short‐term earthquake predictions has been debated for a long time. Before, during and after the 2016/2017 earthquake sequence in Italy, we deployed bio‐logging tags to continuously observe the activity of farm animals (cows, dogs, and sheep) close to the epicenter of the devastating magnitude M6.6 Norcia earthquake (Oct–Nov 2016) and over a subsequent longer observation period (Jan–Apr 2017). Relating 5,304 (in 2016) and 12,948 (in 2017) earthquakes with a wide magnitude range (0.4 ≤ M ≤ 6.6) to continuously measured animal activity, we detected how the animals collectively reacted to earthquakes. We also found consistent anticipatory activity prior to earthquakes during times when the animals were in a building (stable), but not during their time on a pasture. We detected these anticipatory patterns not only in periods with high, but also in periods of low seismic activity. Earthquake anticipation times (1–20 hr) are negatively correlated with the distance between the farm and earthquake hypocenters. Our study suggests that continuous bio‐logging of animal collectives has the potential to provide statistically reliable patterns of pre‐seismic activity that could yield valuable insights for short‐term earthquake forecasting. Based on a priori model parameters, we provide empirical threshold values for pre‐seismic animal activities to be used in real‐time observation stations. published

Exploring the connections between injection wells and seismic migration patterns is key to understanding processes controlling growth of fluid-injection induced seismicity. Numerous seismic clusters in Oklahoma have been associated with wastewater disposal operations, providing a unique opportunity to investigate migration directions of each cluster with respect to the injection-well locations. We introduce new directivity migration parameters to identify and quantify lateral migration toward or away from the injection wells. We take into account cumulative volume and injection rate from multiple injection wells. Our results suggest a weak relationship between migration direction and the cluster-well distances. Migration away from injection wells is found for distances shorter than 5-13 km, while an opposite migration towards the wells is observed for larger distances, suggesting an increasing influence of poroelastic stress changes. This finding is more stable when considering cumulative injected volume instead of injection rate. We do not observe any relationship between migration direction and injected volume or equivalent magnitudes.

In this paper, we investigate earthquake-induced landslides using a geostatistical model that includes a latent spatial effect (LSE). The LSE represents the spatially structured residuals in the data, which are complementary to the information carried by the covariates. To determine whether the LSE can capture the residual signal from a given trigger, we test whether the LSE is able to capture the pattern of seismic shaking caused by an earthquake from the distribution of seismically induced landslides, without prior knowledge of the earthquake being included in the statistical model. We assess the landslide intensity, i.e., the expected number of landslide activations per mapping unit, for the area in which landslides triggered by the Wenchuan (M 7.9, May 12, 2008) and Lushan (M 6.6, April 20, 2013) earthquakes overlap. We chose an area of overlapping landslides in order to test our method on landslide inventories located in the near and far fields of the earthquake. We generated three different models for each earthquake-induced landslide scenario: i) seismic parameters only (as a proxy for the trigger); ii) the LSE only; and iii) both seismic parameters and the LSE. The three configurations share the same set of morphometric covariates. This allowed us to study the pattern in the LSE and assess whether it adequately approximated the effects of seismic wave propagation. Moreover, it allowed us to check whether the LSE captured effects that are not explained by the shaking levels, such as topographic amplification. Our results show that the LSE reproduced the shaking patterns in space for both earthquakes with a level of spatial detail even greater than the seismic parameters. In addition, the models including the LSE perform better than conventional models featuring seismic parameters only.

Earthquake ruptures comprise spatially varying slip on the fault surface, where slip represents the displacement discontinuity between the two sides of the rupture plane. In this study, we analyze the probability distribution of coseismic slip, which provides important information to better understand earthquake source physics. Although the probability distribution of slip is crucial for generating realistic rupture scenarios for simulation‐based seismic and tsunami‐hazard analysis, the statistical properties of earthquake slip have received limited attention so far. Here, we use the online database of earthquake source models (SRCMOD) to show that the probability distribution of slip follows the truncated exponential law. This law agrees with rupture‐specific physical constraints limiting the maximum possible slip on the fault, similar to physical constraints on maximum earthquake magnitudes. We show the parameters of the best‐fitting truncated exponential distribution scale with average coseismic slip. This scaling property reflects the control of the underlying stress distribution and fault strength on the rupture dimensions, which determines the average slip. Thus, the scale‐dependent behavior of slip heterogeneity is captured by the probability distribution of slip. We conclude that the truncated exponential law accurately quantifies coseismic slip distribution and therefore allows for more realistic modeling of rupture scenarios. Online Material: Figures showing scaling of slip area with seismic moment and Q – Q plots and tables listing earthquakes, rupture models, and fits of various distributions to the empirical probability distribution.

We investigate the lithospheric shear-wave velocity structure of Saudi Arabia by conducting H-κ stacking analysis and jointly inverting teleseismic P-receiver functions and fundamental-mode Rayleigh wave group velocities at 56 broadband stations deployed by the Saudi Geological Survey (SGS). The study region, the Arabian plate, is traditionally divided into the western Arabian shield and the eastern Arabian platform: The Arabian shield itself is a complicated melange of crustal material, composed of several Proterozoic terrains separated by ophiolite-bearing suture zones and dotted by outcropping Cenozoic volcanic rocks (locally known as harrats). The Arabian platform is primarily covered by 8 to 10 km of Paleozoic, Mesozoic and Cenozoic sedimentary rocks. Our results reveal high Vp/Vs ratios in the region of Harrat Lunayyir, which are interpreted as solidified magma intrusions from old magmatic episodes in the shield. Our results also indicate slow velocities and large upper mantle lid temperatures below the southern and northern tips of the Arabian shield, when compared with the values obtained for the central shield. We argue that our inferred patterns of lid velocity and temperature are due to heating by thermal conduction from the Afar plume (and, possibly, the Jordan plume), and that volcanism in western Arabia may result from small-scale adiabatic ascent of magma diapirs.

International audience; The initiation of natural and induced earthquakes is promoted in fault areas where shear stress is close to fault strength. In many real-world situations, these overstressed fault areas (or ‘asperities’) are very elongated; for example, in the case of a fault intersecting a reservoir subject to fluid-injection, or the stress concentration along the bottom of a seismogenic zone induced by deep fault creep. Theoretical estimates of the minimum overstressed asperity size leading to runaway rupture and of the final size of self-arrested ruptures are only available for 2-D problems and for 3-D problems with an asperity aspect ratio close to one. In this study, we determine how the nucleation of ruptures on elongated asperities, and their ensuing arrest, depends on the size and aspect ratio of the asperity and on the background stress. Based on a systematic set of 3-D dynamic rupture simulations assuming linear slip-weakening friction, we find that if the shortest asperity side is smaller than the 2-D critical length, the problem effectively reduces to a 2-D problem in which rupture nucleation and arrest are controlled by the shortest length of the asperity. Otherwise, nucleation and rupture arrest are controlled by the asperity area, with a minor exception: for asperities with shortest side slightly larger than the 2-D critical length, arrested ruptures are smaller than predicted by the asperity area. The fact that rupture arrest is dominantly controlled by area, even for elongated asperities, corroborates the finding that observed maximum magnitudes of earthquakes induced by fluid injection are consistent with the theoretical relation between the magnitude of the largest self-arrested rupture and the injected volume. In the context of induced seismicity, our simulations provide plausible scenarios that could be either favourable or challenging for traffic light systems and provide mechanical insights into the conditions leading to these situations.

This study investigates seismic wave amplification effects in the Indo-Gangetic (IG) basin for possible large earthquakes in the region using spectral-element simulations. The Indo-Gangetic basin is a large and deep sedimentary basin that covers the northern part of India, in which several mega-cities are located, including the capital city of New Delhi. The seismicity in the region due to presence of many active tectonic faults is an important matter of concern for engineers. The damage caused in a future large earthquake could affect a huge population and hinder the development of numerous large-scale industrial establishments. Due to local soil conditions and the structural complexity of the sedimentary basin, seismic wave amplification is expected. However, the absence of seismic data for large earthquakes and limited knowledge of the structure of the basin poses challenge in estimating shaking amplifications. Therefore, we model the 3D structure of the basin using Spectral Finite Element method (Specfem3D) including the topography of the Himalayan mountains, and compute synthetic seismograms for a suite of simulated rupture scenarios. First, we use two past earthquakes in the basin to calibrate our 3D model by comparing the simulated ground motions with the recorded data. Later, we consider realizations of potential future large earthquake ( M w 7.1), by generating different kinematic rupture models. We simulate earthquake scenarios for different source parameters to quantify the statistics of expected ground shaking levels. We then infer seismic wave amplification as a function of both frequency and basin depth for complex seismic sources. Our results indicate a maximum amplification of 16 in Peak Ground Velocity (PGV) and 19–35 in Spectral Accelerations (Sa) at long periods. The results presented in this study may be useful for engineers to predict ground motions for future large earthquakes in absence of any available seismicity data.

Using receiver-functions and surface-wave dispersion curves, we study the crustal and upper-mantle structure of Saudi Arabia. Our results reveal first-order differences in crustal thickness between the Arabian Shield in the west and the Arabian Platform in the east. Moho depths generally increase eastward, while crustal thickness varies strongly in the west over the volcanic regions and near the Red Sea. Localized zones of increased P-wave speed in the west may indicate solidified magmatic intrusions within the area of recent volcanism. Our receiver-function analysis for deep converted phases reveals that the transition zone thickness between the 410 km and the 660 km discontinuities is not anomalously thinned, refuting the hypothesis of a small localized mantle plume as the origin for the volcanic activity in western Saudi Arabia. Our results suggest that the volcanism in western Arabia may be due to the lithospheric mantle being heated from below by lateral flow from the Afar and (possibly) Jordan plumes. This triggers localized melts that ascend adiabatically through the lithosphere as magma diapirs. Recent xenolith measurements that provide information on temperatures and depths of melting are overall consistent with this hypothesis. However, further dedicated localized tomographic studies are needed to decipher the details of the origin of the volcanism and its relation to the overall geodynamics of the region.

The sensitivity and variability of spatial tsunami inundation footprints in coastal cities and towns due to a megathrust subduction earthquake in the Tohoku region of Japan are investigated by considering different fault geometry and slip distributions. Stochastic tsunami scenarios are generated based on the spectral analysis and synthesis method with regards to an inverted source model. To assess spatial inundation processes accurately, tsunami modeling is conducted using bathymetry and elevation data with 50 m grid resolutions. Using the developed methodology for assessing variability of tsunami hazard estimates, stochastic inundation depth maps can be generated for local coastal communities. These maps are important for improving disaster preparedness by understanding the consequences of different situations/conditions, and by communicating uncertainty associated with hazard predictions. The analysis indicates that the sensitivity of inundation areas to the geometrical parameters (i.e., top-edge depth, strike, and dip) depends on the tsunami source characteristics and the site location, and is therefore complex and highly nonlinear. The variability assessment of inundation footprints indicates significant influence of slip distributions. In particular, topographical features of the region, such as ria coast and near-shore plain, have major influence on the tsunami inundation footprints.

Earthquake slip inversions aiming to retrieve kinematic rupture characteristics typically assume 1-D velocity models and a flat Earth surface. However, heterogeneous nature of the crust and presence of rough topography lead to seismic scattering and other wave propagation phenomena, introducing complex 3-D effects on ground motions. Here we investigate how the use of imprecise Green's functions—achieved by including 3-D velocity perturbations and topography—affect slip-inversion results. We create sets of synthetic seismograms, including 3-D heterogeneous Earth structure and topography, and then invert these synthetics using Green's functions computed for a horizontally layered 1-D Earth model. We apply a linear inversion, regularized by smoothing and positivity constraint, and examine in detail how smoothing effects perturb the solution. Among others, our tests and resolution analyses demonstrate how imprecise Green's functions introduce artificial slip rate multiples especially at shallow depths and that the timing of the peak slip rate is hardly affected by the chosen smoothing. The investigation is extended to recordings of the 2009 Mw6.3 L'Aquila earthquake, considering both strong motion and high-rate GPS stations. We interpret the inversion results taking into account the lessons learned from the synthetic tests. The retrieved slip model resembles previously published solutions using geodetic data, showing a large-slip asperity southeast of the hypocenter. In agreement with other studies, we find evidence for fast but subshear rupture propagation in updip direction, followed by a delayed propagation along strike. We conjecture that rupture was partially inhibited by a deep localized velocity-strengthening patch that subsequently experienced afterslip.

Our theoretical model of rupture arrest indicates that most of the injection-induced earthquakes have been self-arrested., Injection-induced earthquakes pose a serious seismic hazard but also offer an opportunity to gain insight into earthquake physics. Currently used models relating the maximum magnitude of injection-induced earthquakes to injection parameters do not incorporate rupture physics. We develop theoretical estimates, validated by simulations, of the size of ruptures induced by localized pore-pressure perturbations and propagating on prestressed faults. Our model accounts for ruptures growing beyond the perturbed area and distinguishes self-arrested from runaway ruptures. We develop a theoretical scaling relation between the largest magnitude of self-arrested earthquakes and the injected volume and find it consistent with observed maximum magnitudes of injection-induced earthquakes over a broad range of injected volumes, suggesting that, although runaway ruptures are possible, most injection-induced events so far have been self-arrested ruptures.

Soil organic carbon (SOC) estimation is crucial to manage natural and anthropic ecosystems. Many modeling procedures have been tested in the literature, however, most of them do not provide information on predictors' behavior at specific sub-domains of the SOC stock. Here, we implement Quantile Regression (QR) to spatially predict the SOC stock and gain insight on the role of predictors (topographic and remotely sensed) at varying SOC stock (0–30cm depth) in the agricultural areas of an extremely variable semi-arid region (Sicily, Italy, around 25,000km2). QR produces robust performances (maximum quantile loss = 0.49) and allows to recognize dominant effects among the predictors at varying quantiles. In particular, clay mostly contributes to maintain SOC stock at lower quantiles whereas rainfall and temperature influences are constantly positive and negative, respectively. This information, currently lacking, confirms that QR can discern predictor influences on SOC stock at specific SOC sub-domains. The QR map generated at the median shows a Mean Absolute Error of 17 t SOC ha- 1 with respect to the data collected at sampling locations. Such MAE is lower than those of the Joint Research Centre at Global (18 t SOC ha- 1) and at European (24 t SOC ha- 1) scales and of the International Soil Reference and Information Centre (23 t SOC ha- 1) while higher than the MAE reached in Schillaci et al. (2017b) (Geoderma, 2017, issue 286, page 35–45) using the same dataset (15 t SOC ha- 1). The results suggest the use of QR as a comprehensive method to map SOC stock using legacy data in agro-ecosystems and to investigate SOC and inherited uncertainty with respect to specific subdomains. The R code scripted in this study for QR is included.

Ling Zhang,1 P. Martin Mai,1 Kiran K.S. Thingbaijam,1 Hoby N.T. Razafindrakoto1 and Marc G. Genton2 1Division of Physical Sciences and Engineering, King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST), Thuwal 23955-6900, Saudi Arabia. E-mail: martin.mai@kaust.edu.sa 2Division of Computer, Electrical and Mathematical Sciences and Engineering, King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST), Thuwal 23955-6900, Saudi Arabia

This contribution to the Electronic Seismologist presents the online SRCMOD database of finite‐fault rupture models for past earthquakes, accessible at http://equake-rc.info/srcmod. Finite‐fault earthquake source inversions have become a standard tool in seismological research. Using seismic data, these inversions image the spatiotemporal rupture evolution on one or more assumed fault segments. If geodetic data are used, the source inversions put constraints on the fault geometry and the static slip distribution (i.e., final displacements over the fault surfaces). Joint inversions, using a combination of available seismic, geodetic, and potentially other data, try to match all observations to develop a more comprehensive image of the rupture process. Some joint inversions use all data simultaneously, whereas others take an iterative approach wherein one set of observations is utilized to construct an initial (prior) model for subsequent inversions using other available data. The field of finite‐fault inversion was pioneered in the early 1980s (Olson and Apsel, 1982; Hartzell and Heaton, 1983). Subsequently, their method has been applied to numerous earthquakes (e.g., Hartzell, 1989; Hartzell et al. , 1991; Wald et al. , 1991; Hartzell and Langer, 1993; Wald et al. , 1993; Wald and Somerville, 1995), while simultaneously additional source‐inversion strategies were developed and applied (e.g., Beroza and Spudich, 1988; Beroza, 1991; Hartzell and Lui, 1995; Hartzell et al. , 1996; Zeng and Anderson, 1996). It is beyond the scope of this article to provide a detailed review of source‐inversion methods, their theoretical bases, implementations, and parameterizations; instead, we refer to Ide (2007) for a more comprehensive summary. Finite‐fault source inversions help to shape our understanding of the complexity of the earthquake rupture process. These source images provide information, albeit at rather low spatial resolution, of earthquake slip at depth, and potentially also on the temporal rupture evolution. …

Geophysical Journal International, 196 (2), ISSN:0956-540X, ISSN:1365-246X

We thank Gavin Hayes and another anonymous reviewer for their constructive, profound and detailed comments that greatly improve ourwork. This researchwas supported byNSFC-41674067, projects of State Key Laboratory of Earthquake Dynamics LED2015A02 and LED2016A05, and also partially supported by King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST) in Thuwal, Saudi Arabia, grant BAS/1/1339-01-01.

In this article, we propose standards for documenting and disseminating finite‐fault earthquake rupture models, and related data and metadata. A comprehensive documentation of the rupture models, a detailed description of the data processing steps, and facilitating the access to the actual data that went into the earthquake source inversion are required to promote follow‐up research and to ensure interoperability, transparency, and reproducibility of the published slip‐inversion solutions. We suggest a formatting scheme that describes the kinematic rupture process in an unambiguous way to support subsequent research. We also provide guidelines on how to document the data, metadata, and data processing. The proposed standards and formats represent a first step to establishing best practices for comprehensively documenting input and output of finite‐fault earthquake source studies.