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This paper discusses the reliability of a graph in which the links are perfectly reliable but the nodes may fail with certain probability p. Calculating graph node reliability is an NP-Hard problem. We introduce an efficient and accurate Monte Carlo method and a stochastic approximation for the node reliability polynomial based solely on the degree distribution. We provide the formulas for the node reliability polynomial of both Erdos-Renyi graphs and Random Geometric graphs. The phase transition in the node reliability of Erdos-Renyi graphs is also discussed. Additionally, we propose two increasingly accurate upper bounds for the node reliability polynomial solely based on the graph's degree distributions. The advantages and disadvantages of these two upper bounds are thoroughly compared. Beyond the computation of node reliability polynomials, we also estimate the number of cut sets and present a solution to the reliability-based network enhancement problem.

We study human mobility networks through timeseries of contacts between individuals. Our proposed Random Walkers Induced temporal Graph (RWIG) model generates temporal graph sequences based on independent random walkers that traverse an underlying graph in discrete time steps. Co-location of walkers at a given node and time defines an individual-level contact. RWIG is shown to be a realistic model for temporal human contact graphs, which may place RWIG on a same footing as the Erdos-Renyi (ER) and Barabasi-Albert (BA) models for fixed graphs. Moreover, RWIG is analytically feasible: we derive closed form solutions for the probability distribution of contact graphs.

Based on data sets provided by Statistics Netherlands and the International Institute of Social History, we investigate the Dutch municipality merging process and the survivability of municipalities over the period 1830-2019. We examine the dynamics of the population and area per municipality and how their distributions evolved during the researched period. We apply a Network Science approach, where each node represents a municipality and the links represent the geographical interconnections between adjacent municipalities via roads, railways, bridges or tunnels which were available in each specific yearly network instance. Over the researched period, we find that the distributions of the logarithm of both the population and area size closely follow a normal and a logistic distribution respectively. The tails of the population distributions follow a power-law distribution, a phenomenon observed in community structures of many real-world networks. The dynamics of the area distribution are mainly determined by the merging process, while the population distribution is also driven by the natural population growth and migration across the municipality network. Finally, we propose a model of the Dutch Municipality Network that captures population increase, population migration between municipalities and the process of municipality merging. Our model allows for predictions of the population and area distributions over time., Comment: 48 pages, 26 figures

We consider the supervised learning problem of learning the price of an option or the implied volatility given appropriate input data (model parameters) and corresponding output data (option prices or implied volatilities). The majority of articles in this literature considers a (plain) feed forward neural network architecture in order to connect the neurons used for learning the function mapping inputs to outputs. In this article, motivated by methods in image classification and recent advances in machine learning methods for PDEs, we investigate empirically whether and how the choice of network architecture affects the accuracy and training time of a machine learning algorithm. We find that for option pricing problems, where we focus on the Black--Scholes and the Heston model, the generalized highway network architecture outperforms all other variants, when considering the mean squared error and the training time as criteria. Moreover, for the computation of the implied volatility, after a necessary transformation, a variant of the DGM architecture outperforms all other variants, when considering again the mean squared error and the training time as criteria., Comment: 29 pages, 21 figures, 13 tables

We extend the N-Intertwined Mean-Field Approximation (NIMFA) for the Susceptible-Infectious-Susceptible (SIS) epidemiological process to time-varying networks. Processes on time-varying networks are often analysed under the assumption that the process and network evolution happen on different timescales. This approximation is called timescale separation. We investigate timescale separation between disease spreading and topology updates of the network. We introduce the transition times $\mathrm{\underline{T}}(r)$ and $\mathrm{\overline{T}}(r)$ as the boundaries between the intermediate regime and the annealed (fast changing network) and quenched (static network) regimes, respectively, for a fixed accuracy tolerance $r$. By analysing the convergence of static NIMFA processes, we analytically derive upper and lower bounds for $\mathrm{\overline{T}}(r)$. Our results provide insights/bounds on the time of convergence to the steady state of the static NIMFA SIS process. We show that, under our assumptions, the upper-transition time $\mathrm{\overline{T}}(r)$ is almost entirely determined by the basic reproduction number $R_0$ of the network. The value of the upper-transition time $\mathrm{\overline{T}}(r)$ around the epidemic threshold is large, which agrees with the current understanding that some real-world epidemics cannot be approximated with the aforementioned timescale separation., Comment: 20 pages, 13 figures

Epidemic forecasts are only as good as the accuracy of epidemic measurements. Is epidemic data, particularly COVID-19 epidemic data, clean and devoid of noise? Common sense implies the negative answer. While we cannot evaluate the cleanliness of the COVID-19 epidemic data in a holistic fashion, we can assess the data for the presence of reporting delays. In our work, through the analysis of the first COVID-19 wave, we find substantial reporting delays in the published epidemic data. Motivated by the desire to enhance epidemic forecasts, we develop a statistical framework to detect, uncover, and remove reporting delays in the infectious, recovered, and deceased epidemic time series. Our framework can uncover and analyze reporting delays in 8 regions significantly affected by the first COVID-19 wave. Further, we demonstrate that removing reporting delays from epidemic data using our statistical framework may decrease the error in epidemic forecasts. While our statistical framework can be used in combination with any epidemic forecast method that intakes infectious, recovered, and deceased data, to make a basic assessment, we employed the classical SIRD epidemic model. Our results indicate that the removal of reporting delays from the epidemic data may decrease the forecast error by up to 50. We anticipate that our framework will be indispensable in the analysis of novel COVID-19 strains and other existing or novel infectious diseases., Comment: 10 pages, 4 figures

Interpreting natural language is an increasingly important task in computer algorithms due to the growing availability of unstructured textual data. Natural Language Processing (NLP) applications rely on semantic networks for structured knowledge representation. The fundamental properties of semantic networks must be taken into account when designing NLP algorithms, yet they remain to be structurally investigated. We study the properties of semantic networks from ConceptNet, defined by 7 semantic relations from 11 different languages. We find that semantic networks have universal basic properties: they are sparse, highly clustered, and many exhibit power-law degree distributions. Our findings show that the majority of the considered networks are scale-free. Some networks exhibit language-specific properties determined by grammatical rules, for example networks from highly inflected languages, such as e.g. Latin, German, French and Spanish, show peaks in the degree distribution that deviate from a power law. We find that depending on the semantic relation type and the language, the link formation in semantic networks is guided by different principles. In some networks the connections are similarity-based, while in others the connections are more complementarity-based. Finally, we demonstrate how knowledge of similarity and complementarity in semantic networks can improve NLP algorithms in missing link inference.

We propose a linear clustering process on a network consisting of two opposite forces: attraction and repulsion between adjacent nodes. Each node is mapped to a position on a one-dimensional line. The attraction and repulsion forces move the nodal position on the line, depending on how similar or different the neighbourhoods of two adjacent nodes are. Based on each node position, the number of clusters in a network, together with each node's cluster membership, is estimated. The performance of the proposed linear clustering process is benchmarked on synthetic networks against widely accepted clustering algorithms such as modularity, the Louvain method and the non-back tracking matrix. The proposed linear clustering process outperforms the most popular modularity-based methods, such as the Louvain method, while possessing a comparable computational complexity.

The $k$-th power of the adjacency matrix of a simple undirected graph represents the number of walks with length $k$ between pairs of nodes. As a walk where no node repeats, a path is a walk where each node is only visited once. The set of paths constitutes a relatively small subset of all possible walks. We introduce three types of walks, representing subsets of all possible walks. Considered types of walks allow for deriving an analytic solution for the number of paths of a certain length between node pairs in a matrix form. Depending on the path length, different approaches possess the lowest computational complexity. We also propose a recursive algorithm for determining all paths in a graph, which can be generalised to directed (un)weighted networks.

Despite many studies on the transmission mechanism of the Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), it remains still challenging to efficiently reduce mortality. In this work, we apply a two-population Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) model to investigate the COVID-19 spreading when contacts between elderly and non-elderly individuals are reduced due to the high mortality risk of elderly people. We discover that the reduction of connections between two populations can delay the death curve but cannot well reduce the final mortality. We propose a merged SIR model, which advises elderly individuals to interact less with their non-elderly connections at the initial stage but interact more with their non-elderly relationships later, to reduce the final mortality. Finally, immunizing elderly hub individuals can also significantly decrease mortality., Comment: 16 pages, 12 figures

Infectious diseases typically spread over a contact network with millions of individuals, whose sheer size is a tremendous challenge to analysing and controlling an epidemic outbreak. For some contact networks, it is possible to group individuals into clusters. A high-level description of the epidemic between a few clusters is considerably simpler than on an individual level. However, to cluster individuals, most studies rely on equitable partitions, a rather restrictive structural property of the contact network. In this work, we focus on Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) epidemics, and our contribution is threefold. First, we propose a geometric approach to specify all networks for which an epidemic outbreak simplifies to the interaction of only a few clusters. Second, for the complete graph and any initial viral state vectors, we derive the closed-form solution of the nonlinear differential equations of the N-Intertwined Mean-Field Approximation (NIMFA) of the SIS process. Third, by relaxing the notion of equitable partitions, we derive low-complexity approximations and bounds for epidemics on arbitrary contact networks. Our results are an important step towards understanding and controlling epidemics on large networks.

We investigate a generalization of Binet's factorial series in the parameter $\alpha$ \[ \mu\left( z\right) =\sum_{m=1}^{\infty}\frac{b_{m}\left( \alpha\right) }{\prod_{k=0}^{m-1}(z+\alpha+k)}% \] due to Gilbert, for the Binet function \[ \mu\left( z\right) =\log\Gamma\left( z\right) -\left( z-\frac{1} {2}\right) \log z+z-\frac{1}{2}\log\left( 2\pi\right) \] After a review of the Binet function $\mu\left( z\right) $ and Gilbert's investigations of $\mu\left( z\right) $, several properties of the Binet polynomials $b_{m}\left( \alpha\right) $ are presented. We compare Gilbert's generalized factorial series with Stirling's asymptotic expansion and demonstrate by a numerical example that, with a same number of terms evaluated, the Gilbert generalized factorial series with an optimized value of $\alpha$ can beat the best possible accuracy of Stirling's expansion. Finally, we extend Binet's method to factorial series of Laplace transforms., Comment: We have integrated Gilbert's investigations of 1876

Initially emerged in the Chinese city Wuhan and subsequently spread almost worldwide causing a pandemic, the SARS-CoV-2 virus follows reasonably well the SIR (Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered) epidemic model on contact networks in the Chinese case. In this paper, we investigate the prediction accuracy of the SIR model on networks also for Italy. Specifically, the Italian regions are a metapopulation represented by network nodes and the network links are the interactions between those regions. Then, we modify the network-based SIR model in order to take into account the different lockdown measures adopted by the Italian Government in the various phases of the spreading of the COVID-19. Our results indicate that the network-based model better predicts the daily cumulative infected individuals when time-varying lockdown protocols are incorporated in the classical SIR model.

Several exact expansions as well as lower and upperbounds of the Kermack and McKendrick SIR equations are presented.

Currently, many countries are considering the introduction of tracing software on mobile smartphones with the main purpose to inform and alarm the mobile app user. Here, we demonstrate that, in addition to alarming and informing, mobile tracing can detect nearly all users that are infected by SARS-CoV-2. Our algorithm BETIS (Bayesian Estimation for Tracing Infection States) makes use of self-reports of the user's health status. Then, BETIS guarantees that almost all SARS-CoV-2 infections of the group of users can be detected. Furthermore, BETIS estimates the virus prevalence in the whole population, consisting of users and non-users. BETIS is based on a hidden Markov epidemic model and recursive Bayesian filtering. The potential that mobile tracing apps, in addition to medical testing and quarantining, can eradicate COVID-19 may persuade citizens to trade-off privacy against public health.

Processes on networks consist of two interdependent parts: the network topology, consisting of the links between nodes, and the dynamics, specified by some governing equations. This work considers the prediction of the future dynamics on an unknown network, based on past observations of the dynamics. For a general class of governing equations, we propose a prediction algorithm which infers the network as an intermediate step. Inferring the network is impossible in practice, due to a dramatically ill-conditioned linear system. Surprisingly, a highly accurate prediction of the dynamics is possible nonetheless: Even though the inferred network has no topological similarity with the true network, both networks result in practically the same future dynamics.

We review the function theoretical properties of the Mittag-Leffler function $E_{a,b}\left( z\right) $ in a self-contained manner, but also add new results; more than half is new!, Comment: Some errors are corrected and citation added

At the moment of writing (12 February, 2020), the future evolution of the 2019-nCoV virus is unclear. Predictions of the further course of the epidemic are decisive to deploy targeted disease control measures. We consider a network-based model to describe the 2019-nCoV epidemic in the Hubei province. The network is composed of the cities in Hubei and their interactions (e.g., traffic flow). However, the precise interactions between cities is unknown and must be inferred from observing the epidemic. We propose a network-based method to predict the future prevalence of the 2019-nCoV virus in every city. Our results indicate that network-based modelling is beneficial for an accurate forecast of the epidemic outbreak., Comment: Ordering of cities in Table 1 has been corrected; Prediction considers more recent observations

The symmetric nonnegative inverse eigenvalue problem (SNIEP) asks which sets of numbers (counting multiplicities) can be the eigenvalues of a symmetric matrix with nonnegative entries. While examples of such matrices are abundant in linear algebra and various applications, this question is still open for matrices of dimension $N\geq 5$. One of the approaches to solve the SNIEP was proposed by George W. Soules, relying on a specific type of eigenvectors (Soules vectors) to derive sufficient conditions for this problem. Elsner et al. later showed a canonical way to construct all Soules vectors, based on binary rooted trees. While Soules vectors are typically treated as a totally ordered set of vectors, we propose in this article to consider a relaxed alternative: a partially ordered set of Soules vectors. We show that this perspective enables a more complete characterization of the sufficient conditions for the SNIEP. In particular, we show that the set of eigenvalues that satisfy these sufficient conditions is a convex cone, with symmetries corresponding to the automorphisms of the binary rooted tree from which the Soules vectors were constructed. As a second application, we show how Soules vectors can be used to construct graph Laplacian matrices with a given spectrum and describe a number of interesting connections with the concepts of hierarchical random graphs, equitable partitions and effective resistance.

We study the electrodynamic impedance of percolating conductors with a pre-defined network topology using a scanning microwave impedance microscope (sMIM) at GHz frequencies. For a given percolation number we observe strong spatial variations across a sample which correlate with the connected regions (clusters) in the network when the resistivity is low such as in Aluminum. For the more resistive material NbTiN the impedance becomes dominated by the local structure of the percolating network (connectivity). The results can qualitatively be understood and reproduced with a network current spreading model based on the pseudo-inverse Laplacian of the underlying network graph., Comment: Main text (4 pages, 4 figures) + Supp. Info. (14 pages, 13 figures)

In networked spreading models, each node can infect its neighbors and cure spontaneously. The curing is assumed to occur uniformly over time. A pulse immunization/curing strategy is more efficient and broadly applied to suppressing spreading processes. We model the epidemic process by the basic Susceptible-Infected (SI) process with a pulse curing and incorporate the underlying contact network. The mean-field epidemic threshold of the pulse SI model is shown to be $\frac{1}{\lambda_1}\ln\frac{1}{1-p}$, where $\lambda_1$ and $p$ are the largest eigenvalue of the adjacency matrix and the fraction of nodes covered by each curing, respectively. Compared to the extensively studied uniform curing process, we show that the pulse curing strategy saves about $36.8$\%, i.e. $p\approx 0.632$, of the number of curing operations invariant to the network structure. Our results may help related policy makers to estimate the cost of controlling spreading processes., Comment: 8 pages, 1 figure

The majority of research on epidemics relies on models which are formulated in continuous-time. However, real-world epidemic data is gathered and processed in a digital manner, which is more accurately described by discrete-time epidemic models. We analyse the discrete-time NIMFA epidemic model on directed networks with heterogeneous spreading parameters. In particular, we show that the viral state is increasing and does not overshoot the steady-state, the steady-state is globally exponentially stable, and we provide linear systems that bound the viral state evolution. Thus, the discrete-time NIMFA model succeeds to capture the qualitative behaviour of a viral spread and provides a powerful means to study real-world epidemics.

Predicting the viral dynamics of an epidemic process requires the knowledge of the underlying contact network. However, the network is not known for most applications and has to be inferred from observing the viral state evolution instead. We propose a polynomial-time network reconstruction algorithm for the discrete-time NIMFA model based on a basis pursuit formulation. Given only few initial viral state observations, the network reconstruction method allows for an accurate prediction of the further viral state evolution of every node provided that the network is sufficiently sparse.