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249 results on '"PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency"'

1. Future global pig production systems according to the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

Author: Universitat Politècnica de València. Departamento de Ciencia Animal - Departament de Ciència Animal, European Regional Development Fund, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad, PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Lassaletta, L., Estellés, F., Beusen, A.H.W., Bouwman, L., Calvet, S., van Grinsven, Hans J.M., Doelman, J.C., Stehfest, E., Uwizeye, A., Westhoek, H., Universitat Politècnica de València. Departamento de Ciencia Animal - Departament de Ciència Animal, European Regional Development Fund, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, Ministerio de Economía y Competitividad, PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Lassaletta, L., Estellés, F., Beusen, A.H.W., Bouwman, L., Calvet, S., van Grinsven, Hans J.M., Doelman, J.C., Stehfest, E., Uwizeye, A., and Westhoek, H.
Abstract: [EN] Global pork production has increased fourfold over the last 50 years and is expected to continue growing during the next three decades. This may have considerable implications for feed use, land requirements, and nitrogen emissions. To analyze the development of the pig production sector at the scale of world regions, we developed the IMAGE-Pig model to describe changes in feed demand, feed conversion ratios (FCRs), nitrogen use efficiency (NUE) and nitrogen excretion for backyard, intermediate and intensive systems during the past few decades as a basis to explore future scenarios. For each region and production system, total production, productive characteristics and dietary compositions were defined for the 1970-2005 period. The results show that due to the growing pork production total feed demand has increased by a factor of two (from 229 to 471Tg DM). This is despite the improvement of FCRs during the 1970-2005 period, which has reduced the feed use per kg of product. The increase of nitrogen use efficiency was slower than the improvement of FCRs due to increasing protein content in the feed rations. As a result, total N excretion increased by more than a factor of two in the 1970-2005 period (from 4.6 to 11.1 Tg N/year). For the period up to 2050, the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) provide information on levels of human consumption, technical development and environmental awareness. The sustainability of pig production systems for the coming decades will be based not only on the expected efficiency improvements at the level of animal breeds, but also on four additional pillars: (i) use of alternative feed sources not competing with human food, (ii) reduction of the crude protein content in rations, (iii) the proper use of slurries as fertilizers through coupling of crop and livestock production and (iv) moderation of the human pork consumption. (c) 2019 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Published: 2019

2. Impact of short range variability of soil and substance properties on regional scale atrazine exposure to groundwater

Author: UCL - SST/ELI/ELIE - Environmental Sciences, CRA - Gembloux, PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency - Soil and Water, Vanclooster, Marnik, Bah, Billo, Oger, R., Tiktak, A., UCL - SST/ELI/ELIE - Environmental Sciences, CRA - Gembloux, PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency - Soil and Water, Vanclooster, Marnik, Bah, Billo, Oger, R., and Tiktak, A.
Published: 2010

3. Land management implications for ecosystem services in a South African rangeland.

Author: PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, P.O. Box 303, 3720 AH Bilthoven, The Netherlands, Bren School of Environmental Science and Management, University of California Santa Barbara, 400 Bren Hall, Santa Barbara, CA 93106-5131, USA, Living Lands, P.O. Box 237, Patensie 6335, South Africa, and Environmental Systems Analysis Group, Wageningen University, P.O. Box 47, 6700 AA Wageningen, The Netherlands
Subjects: *LAND management, *ECOSYSTEM services, *OVERGRAZING, *RANGELANDS, *SUSTAINABLE development
Abstract: In South Africa, restoration and sustainable management of historically overgrazed and degraded rangelands are promoted to increase biodiversity and ecosystem service provision. This study evaluates different land management scenarios in terms of ecosystem services in a South African rangeland, the Baviaanskloof catchment. As measured data were limited, we used simple models to quantify and map the effect of the different combination of agricultural, nature conservation and restoration practices on multiple ecosystem services. The land management scenarios were evaluated against management targets set for individual ecosystem services. Results highlight how the provision of ecosystem services is related to land management as unmanaged, pristine ecosystems provide a different mix of ecosystem services than ecosystems recently restored or managed as grazing lands. Results also indicate that historically overgrazed lands provide no forage, may retain 40% less sediment and have 38% lower biodiversity, while providing 60% more fuel wood and supplying two and half times more water (i.e. retaining less water), than pristine or restored lands. We conclude that a combination of light grazing, low input agriculture, nature conservation and restoration is the best for the sufficient provision of multiple ecosystem services. Applying such mixed management would improve biodiversity, ecotourism and maintain forage production and regulating services on farmers' land. This management option also fits into and further optimizes local decision-makers' vision regarding the future management of the area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Published: 2014
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4. Locked into Copenhagen pledges -- Implications of short-term emission targets for the cost and feasibility of long-term climate goals

Author: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) ; International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Postdam Institute for Climate Impact Research ; Postdam Institute, Netherlands National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM) ; RIVM, Joint Global Change Research Institute ; Joint Global Change Research Institute, Wageningen University ; wageningen University, PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency ; PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM) ; Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) ; Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement (CIRED) ; École des hautes études en sciences sociales (EHESS) - AgroParisTech - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement [CIRAD] - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - CNRS, équipe EDDEN ; Politiques publiques, ACtion politique, TErritoires (PACTE) ; CNRS - Université Pierre Mendès France (Grenoble 2 UPMF) - Sciences Po Grenoble - Institut d'études politiques de Grenoble (IEPG) - Université Joseph Fourier (Grenoble 1 UJF) - CNRS - Université Pierre Mendès France (Grenoble 2 UPMF) - Sciences Po Grenoble - Institut d'études politiques de Grenoble (IEPG) - Université Joseph Fourier (Grenoble 1 UJF), Paul Scherrer Institute ; Paul Scherrer Institute, Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth ; Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth, Bocconi University ; Bocconi University, National Technical University of Athens (NTUA) ; National Technical University of Athens, National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES) ; National Institute for Environmental Studies, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, P.O. Box 60 12 03, 14412 Potsdam ; affiliation inconnue, Chaire MPDD, European Project : 265139, ENV, FP7-ENV-2010, AMPERE(2011), Riahi, Keywan, Kriegler, Elmar, Johnson, Nils, Bertram, Christoph, Den Elzen, Michel, Eom, Jiyong, Schaeffer, Michiel, Edmonds, Jae, Isaac, Morna, Krey, Volker, Longden, Thomas, Luderer, Gunnar, Méjean, Aurélie, L Mccollum, David, Mima, Silvana, Turton, Hal, Van Vuuren, Detlef, Wada, Kenichi, Bosetti, Valentina, Capros, Pantelis, Criqui, Patrick, Hamdi-Cherif, Meriem, Kainuma, Mikiko, Edenhofer, Ottmar, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) ; International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Postdam Institute for Climate Impact Research ; Postdam Institute, Netherlands National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM) ; RIVM, Joint Global Change Research Institute ; Joint Global Change Research Institute, Wageningen University ; wageningen University, PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency ; PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM) ; Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) ; Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement (CIRED) ; École des hautes études en sciences sociales (EHESS) - AgroParisTech - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement [CIRAD] - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - CNRS, équipe EDDEN ; Politiques publiques, ACtion politique, TErritoires (PACTE) ; CNRS - Université Pierre Mendès France (Grenoble 2 UPMF) - Sciences Po Grenoble - Institut d'études politiques de Grenoble (IEPG) - Université Joseph Fourier (Grenoble 1 UJF) - CNRS - Université Pierre Mendès France (Grenoble 2 UPMF) - Sciences Po Grenoble - Institut d'études politiques de Grenoble (IEPG) - Université Joseph Fourier (Grenoble 1 UJF), Paul Scherrer Institute ; Paul Scherrer Institute, Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth ; Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth, Bocconi University ; Bocconi University, National Technical University of Athens (NTUA) ; National Technical University of Athens, National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES) ; National Institute for Environmental Studies, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, P.O. Box 60 12 03, 14412 Potsdam ; affiliation inconnue, Chaire MPDD, European Project : 265139, ENV, FP7-ENV-2010, AMPERE(2011), Riahi, Keywan, Kriegler, Elmar, Johnson, Nils, Bertram, Christoph, Den Elzen, Michel, Eom, Jiyong, Schaeffer, Michiel, Edmonds, Jae, Isaac, Morna, Krey, Volker, Longden, Thomas, Luderer, Gunnar, Méjean, Aurélie, L Mccollum, David, Mima, Silvana, Turton, Hal, Van Vuuren, Detlef, Wada, Kenichi, Bosetti, Valentina, Capros, Pantelis, Criqui, Patrick, Hamdi-Cherif, Meriem, Kainuma, Mikiko, and Edenhofer, Ottmar
Abstract: International audience, This paper provides an overview of the AMPERE modeling comparison project with focus on the implications of near-term policies for the costs and attainability of long-term climate objectives. Nine modeling teams participated in the project to explore the consequences of global emissions following the proposed policy stringency of the national pledges from the Copenhagen Accord and Cancún Agreements to 2030. Specific features compared to earlier assessments are the explicit consideration of near-term 2030 emission targets as well as the systematic sensitivity analysis for the availability and potential of mitigation technologies. Our estimates show that a 2030 mitigation effort comparable to the pledges would result in a further "lock-in" of the energy system into fossil fuels and thus impede the required energy transformation to reach low greenhouse-gas stabilization levels (450 ppm CO2e). Major implications include significant increases in mitigation costs, increased risk that low stabilization targets become unattainable, and reduced chances of staying below the proposed temperature change target of 2 °C in case of overshoot. With respect to technologies, we find that following the pledge pathways to 2030 would narrow policy choices, and increases the risks that some currently optional technologies, such as carbon capture and storage (CCS) or the large-scale deployment of bioenergy, will become "a must" by 2030.

5. Exploring the possibility space

Author: Keppo, I., Butnar, I., Bauer, N., Caspani, M., Edelenbosch, O., Emmerling, J., Fragkos, P., Guivarch, C., Harmsen, M., Lefevre, J., Le Gallic, T., Leimbach, M., Mcdowall, W., Mercure, J. F., Schaeffer, R., Trutnevyte, E., Wagner, F., Department of Mechanical Engineering, University College London, Leibniz Association, University of Geneva, PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change, E3 Modelling, CIRED, Université Paris-Saclay, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), University of Exeter, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Aalto-yliopisto, and Aalto University
Subjects: energy-economy feedback, model interpretation, policy scenarios, technology diffusion, integrated assessment model, finance, heterogeneity
Abstract: openaire: EC/H2020/821124/EU//NAVIGATE Integrated assessment models (IAMs) have emerged as key tools for building and assessing long term climate mitigation scenarios. Due to their central role in the recent IPCC assessments, and international climate policy analyses more generally, and the high uncertainties related to future projections, IAMs have been critically assessed by scholars from different fields receiving various critiques ranging from adequacy of their methods to how their results are used and communicated. Although IAMs are conceptually diverse and evolved in very different directions, they tend to be criticised under the umbrella of 'IAMs'. Here we first briefly summarise the IAM landscape and how models differ from each other. We then proceed to discuss six prominent critiques emerging from the recent literature, reflect and respond to them in the light of IAM diversity and ongoing work and suggest ways forward. The six critiques relate to (a) representation of heterogeneous actors in the models, (b) modelling of technology diffusion and dynamics, (c) representation of capital markets, (d) energy-economy feedbacks, (e) policy scenarios, and (f) interpretation and use of model results.
Published: 2021

6. Future global pig production systems according to the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

Author: Jonathan C. Doelman, Fernando Estellés, Arthur H. W. Beusen, Aimable Uwizeye, Salvador Calvet, Henk Westhoek, Luis Lassaletta, Hans van Grinsven, Lex Bouwman, Elke Stehfest, PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Ramon y Cajal research contract, European Union, RYC-2016-20269, Geochemistry, and Environmental Sciences
Subjects: pig, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Sus scrofa, 010501 environmental sciences, PRODUCCION ANIMAL, 01 natural sciences, nitrogen, Agricultural science, Feed demand, awareness, cross coupling reaction, International Policy, Animal Husbandry, Waste Management and Disposal, Dierlijke Productiesystemen, article, protein content, fertilizer, Pollution, IMAGE model, Product (business), Livestock, Fertilizer, Shared Socieconomic Pathways, Environmental Engineering, breed, nitrogen urine level, animal experiment, pork, engineering.material, Feed conversion ratio, Animal Production Systems, Animals, Environmental Chemistry, Production (economics), controlled study, Socioeconomic status, Internationaal Beleid, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, Consumption (economics), Nitrogen use efficiency, nonhuman, business.industry, animal model, Pig production systems, Models, Theoretical, Nitrogen excretion, Animal Feed, livestock, Sustainability, engineering, Environmental science, Water Systems and Global Change, business, diet
Abstract: [EN] Global pork production has increased fourfold over the last 50 years and is expected to continue growing during the next three decades. This may have considerable implications for feed use, land requirements, and nitrogen emissions. To analyze the development of the pig production sector at the scale of world regions, we developed the IMAGE-Pig model to describe changes in feed demand, feed conversion ratios (FCRs), nitrogen use efficiency (NUE) and nitrogen excretion for backyard, intermediate and intensive systems during the past few decades as a basis to explore future scenarios. For each region and production system, total production, productive characteristics and dietary compositions were defined for the 1970-2005 period. The results show that due to the growing pork production total feed demand has increased by a factor of two (from 229 to 471Tg DM). This is despite the improvement of FCRs during the 1970-2005 period, which has reduced the feed use per kg of product. The increase of nitrogen use efficiency was slower than the improvement of FCRs due to increasing protein content in the feed rations. As a result, total N excretion increased by more than a factor of two in the 1970-2005 period (from 4.6 to 11.1 Tg N/year). For the period up to 2050, the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) provide information on levels of human consumption, technical development and environmental awareness. The sustainability of pig production systems for the coming decades will be based not only on the expected efficiency improvements at the level of animal breeds, but also on four additional pillars: (i) use of alternative feed sources not competing with human food, (ii) reduction of the crude protein content in rations, (iii) the proper use of slurries as fertilizers through coupling of crop and livestock production and (iv) moderation of the human pork consumption. (c) 2019 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved., L. Lassaletta was funded by the PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency and by a Ramon y Cajal research contract from the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness co-founded by European Commission ERDF (RYC-2016-20269). L Lassaletta also acknowledges the support of the "Programa Propio" from Universidad Politecnica de Madrid. The authors are grateful to the reviewers for their constructive comments and to the Food and Agriculture Organizations of United Nations (FAO) for providing global statistics and data through FAO Statistics (FAOSTAT) and the Global Livestock Environmental Assessment Model (GLEAM) dataset.
Published: 2019

7. Exploring the possibility space: Taking stock of the diverse capabilities and gaps in integrated assessment models

Author: Céline Guivarch, Evelina Trutnevyte, Will McDowall, Mathijs Harmsen, Oreane Y. Edelenbosch, Jean-Francois Mercure, Ilkka Keppo, J. Lefèvre, M. Caspani, T. Le Gallic, Roberto Schaeffer, Fabian Wagner, Nicolas Bauer, Johannes Emmerling, Marian Leimbach, Panagiotis Fragkos, Isabela Butnar, Keppo, I [0000-0003-3109-1243], Butnar, I [0000-0001-9908-220X], Edelenbosch, O [0000-0002-6588-5255], Emmerling, J [0000-0003-0916-9913], Fragkos, P [0000-0003-3596-0661], Guivarch, C [0000-0002-9405-256X], Harmsen, M [0000-0001-6755-1569], McDowall, W [0000-0002-4238-0692], Schaeffer, R [0000-0002-3709-7323], Trutnevyte, E [0000-0002-1716-6192], Apollo - University of Cambridge Repository, University College of London [London] (UCL), Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), University of Geneva [Switzerland], PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, European Institute on Economics and the Environment (EIEE), E3-Modelling, Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement (CIRED), Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad)-École des hautes études en sciences sociales (EHESS)-AgroParisTech-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Université Paris-Saclay, University of Exeter, Universidade Federal do Estado do Rio de Janeiro (UNIRIO), and International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [Laxenburg] (IIASA)
Subjects: 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Computer science, media_common.quotation_subject, policy scenarios, 38 Economics, finance, 010501 environmental sciences, Space (commercial competition), 01 natural sciences, Technology diffusion, Integrated assessment models, Integrated Assessment Model, ddc:550, Model interpretation, International climate policy, Topical Review, 4407 Policy and Administration, Stock (geology), 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, General Environmental Science, media_common, 44 Human Society, ddc:333.7-333.9, Policy scenarios, 13 Climate Action, Energy-economy feedback, Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment, Interpretation (philosophy), Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health, Representation (systemics), Data science, [SDE.ES]Environmental Sciences/Environmental and Society, energy-economy feedback, model interpretation, 13. Climate action, technology diffusion, [SDE]Environmental Sciences, heterogeneity, Heterogeneity, Capital market, Finance, Diversity (politics)
Abstract: Integrated assessment models (IAMs) have emerged as key tools for building and assessing long term climate mitigation scenarios. Due to their central role in the recent IPCC assessments, and international climate policy analyses more generally, and the high uncertainties related to future projections, IAMs have been critically assessed by scholars from different fields receiving various critiques ranging from adequacy of their methods to how their results are used and communicated. Although IAMs are conceptually diverse and evolved in very different directions, they tend to be criticised under the umbrella of ‘IAMs’. Here we first briefly summarise the IAM landscape and how models differ from each other. We then proceed to discuss six prominent critiques emerging from the recent literature, reflect and respond to them in the light of IAM diversity and ongoing work and suggest ways forward. The six critiques relate to (a) representation of heterogeneous actors in the models, (b) modelling of technology diffusion and dynamics, (c) representation of capital markets, (d) energy-economy feedbacks, (e) policy scenarios, and (f) interpretation and use of model results.
Published: 2021
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8. Implications of climate change mitigation strategies on international bioenergy trade

Author: Daioglou, Vassilis, Muratori, Matteo, Lamers, Patrick, Fujimori, Shinichiro, Kitous, Alban, Köberle, Alexandre C., Bauer, Nico, Junginger, Martin, Kato, Etsushi, Leblanc, Florian, Mima, Silvana, Wise, Marshal, van Vuuren, Detlef P., Environmental Sciences, Energy, Resources & Technological Change, Biobased Economy, Energy and Resources, PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Dipartimento di Matematica, 'Francesco Brioschi', Politecnico di Milano [Milan] (POLIMI), National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Enerdata, Universidade Federal do Estado do Rio de Janeiro (UNIRIO), Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung (PIK), Utrecht University [Utrecht], Tokyo Institute of Technology [Tokyo] (TITECH), Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement (CIRED), Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad)-École des hautes études en sciences sociales (EHESS)-AgroParisTech-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Département Environnements et Sociétés (Cirad-ES), Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad), Laboratoire d'Economie Appliquée de Grenoble (GAEL), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE)-Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP ), Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA), Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL)-University of Maryland [College Park], University of Maryland System-University of Maryland System, Chaire MPDD, Environmental Sciences, Energy, Resources & Technological Change, Biobased Economy, and Energy and Resources
Subjects: Atmospheric Science, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Natural resource economics, 020209 energy, Energy security, Climate change, 02 engineering and technology, 01 natural sciences, 7. Clean energy, Scenario analysis, EMF, Integrated assessment models, Bioenergy, 0202 electrical engineering, electronic engineering, information engineering, Economics, Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, Global and Planetary Change, business.industry, Energy modeling, [SHS.ECO]Humanities and Social Sciences/Economics and Finance, Renewable energy, Climate change mitigation scenarios, Climate change mitigation, 13. Climate action, Climate policy, business, Bioenergy trade
Abstract: Most climate change mitigation scenarios rely on increased use of bioenergy to decarbonize the energy system. Here we use results from the 33rd Energy Modeling Forum study (EMF-33) to investigate projected international bioenergy trade for different integrated assessment models across several climate change mitigation scenarios. Results show that in scenarios with no climate policy, international bioenergy trade is likely to increase over time, and becomes even more important when climate targets are set. More stringent climate targets, however, do not necessarily imply greater bioenergy trade compared to weaker targets, as final energy demand may be reduced. However, the scaling up of bioenergy trade happens sooner and at a faster rate with increasing climate target stringency. Across models, for a scenario likely to achieve a 2 °C target, 10–45 EJ/year out of a total global bioenergy consumption of 72–214 EJ/year are expected to be traded across nine world regions by 2050. While this projection is greater than the present trade volumes of coal or natural gas, it remains below the present trade of crude oil. This growth in bioenergy trade largely replaces the trade in fossil fuels (especially oil) which is projected to decrease significantly over the twenty-first century. As climate change mitigation scenarios often show diversified energy systems, in which numerous world regions can act as bioenergy suppliers, the projections do not necessarily lead to energy security concerns. Nonetheless, rapid growth in the trade of bioenergy is projected in strict climate mitigation scenarios, raising questions about infrastructure, logistics, financing options, and global standards for bioenergy production and trade.
Published: 2020

9. The contribution of bioenergy to the decarbonization of transport: a multi-model assessment

Author: Leblanc, Florian, Bibas, Ruben, Mima, Silvana, Muratori, Matteo, Sakamoto, Shogo, Sano, Fuminori, Bauer, Nico, Daioglou, Vassilis, Fujimori, Shinichiro, Gidden, Matthew J., Kato, Estsushi, Rose, Steven K., Tsutsui, Junichi, Vuuren, Detlef P. van, Weyant, John, Wise, Marshall, Integr. Assessm. Global Environm. Change, Environmental Sciences, Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement (CIRED), Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad)-École des hautes études en sciences sociales (EHESS)-AgroParisTech-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Laboratoire d'Economie Appliquée de Grenoble (GAEL), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE)-Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP ), Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA), National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Central Research Institute of Electrical Power Industry, RITE, Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Climate Analytics, Partenaires INRAE, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [Laxenburg] (IIASA), Institute of Applied Energy (IAE), Electrical Power Research Institute (EPRI), Electrical Power Research Institute, Stanford University, University of Maryland [College Park], University of Maryland System, Integr. Assessm. Global Environm. Change, and Environmental Sciences
Subjects: Transport sector, Global and Planetary Change, Atmospheric Science, JEL: Q - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics • Environmental and Ecological Economics/Q.Q4 - Energy/Q.Q4.Q42 - Alternative Energy Sources, Integrated Assessment Models, Climate mitigation, Taverne, Bioenergy, [SHS.ECO]Humanities and Social Sciences/Economics and Finance, Lignocellulosic fuels, JEL: R - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics/R.R4 - Transportation Economics/R.R4.R49 - Other
Abstract: The expected growth in the demand for passenger and freight services exacerbates the challenges of reducing transport GHG emissions, especially as commercial low-carbon alternatives to petroleum fuels are limited for shipping, air and long-distance road travel. Biofuels can offer a pathway to significantly reduce emissions from these sectors, as they can easily substitute for conventional liquid fuels in internal combustion engines. In this paper, we assess the potential of bioenergy to reduce transport GHG emissions through an analysis leveraging various integrated assessment models and scenarios, as part of the 33rd Energy Modeling Forum study (EMF-33). We find that bioenergy can contribute a significant, albeit not dominant, proportion of energy supply to the future transport sector: in scenarios aiming to keep the temperature increase below 2 °C by the end of the twenty-first century, models project that in 2100 bioenergy can provide on average 42 EJ/yr (ranging from 5 to 85 EJ/yr) for transport (compared to 3.7 EJ in 2018), mainly through lignocellulosic fuels. This makes up 9–62% of final transport energy use. Only a small amount of bioenergy is projected to be used in transport through electricity and hydrogen pathways, with a larger role for biofuels in road passenger transport than in freight. The association of carbon capture and storage (CCS) with bioenergy technologies (BECCS) is a key determinant in the role of biofuels in transport, because of the competition for biomass feedstock to provide other final energy carriers along with carbon removal. Among models that consider CCS in the biofuel conversion process the average market share of biofuels is 21% in 2100 (ranging from 2 to 44%), compared to 10% (0–30%) for models that do not. Cumulative direct emissions from the transport sector account for half of the emission budget (from 306 to 776 out of 1,000 GtCO2). However, the carbon intensity of transport decreases as much as other energy sectors in 2100 when accounting for process emissions, including carbon removal from BECCS. Lignocellulosic fuels become more attractive for transport decarbonization if BECCS is not feasible for any energy sectors. Since global transport service demand increases and biomass supply is limited, its allocation to and within the transport sector is uncertain and sensitive to assumptions about political as well as technological and socioeconomic factors.
Published: 2022

10. Mapping the yields of lignocellulosic bioenergy crops from observations at the global scale

Author: W. Li, P. Ciais, E. Stehfest, D. van Vuuren, A. Popp, A. Arneth, F. Di Fulvio, J. Doelman, F. Humpenöder, A. B. Harper, T. Park, D. Makowski, P. Havlik, M. Obersteiner, J. Wang, A. Krause, W. Liu, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [Laxenburg] (IIASA), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung - Atmosphärische Umweltforschung (IMK-IFU), Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT), College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences [Exeter] (EMPS), University of Exeter, College of Life and Environmental Sciences [Exeter], Department of Earth and Environment [Boston], Boston University [Boston] (BU), NASA Ames Research Center (ARC), Bay Area Environmental Research Institute (BAER), Agronomie, AgroParisTech-Université Paris-Saclay-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE), Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Institute of Nanotechnology [Karlsruhe] (INT), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), TUM School of Life Sciences Weihenstephan, Technische Universität Munchen - Université Technique de Munich [Munich, Allemagne] (TUM), This study is supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (grant no. 2019YFA0606604) and European Research Council Synergy Grant ('IMBALANCE-P' (grant no. ERC-2013-SyG-610028))., ANR-16-CONV-0003,CLAND,CLAND : Changement climatique et usage des terres(2016), European Project: 610028,EC:FP7:ERC,ERC-2013-SyG,IMBALANCE-P(2014), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), and Environmental Sciences
Subjects: Willow, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, 020209 energy, 02 engineering and technology, Agricultural engineering, 01 natural sciences, 7. Clean energy, Crop, Bioenergy, Yield (wine), 0202 electrical engineering, electronic engineering, information engineering, Carbon capture and storage, ddc:550, lcsh:Environmental sciences, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, lcsh:GE1-350, 2. Zero hunger, biology, Crop yield, lcsh:QE1-996.5, Miscanthus, 15. Life on land, biology.organism_classification, lcsh:Geology, Earth sciences, 13. Climate action, Greenhouse gas, [SDE]Environmental Sciences, General Earth and Planetary Sciences, Environmental science
Abstract: Most scenarios from integrated assessment models (IAMs) that project greenhouse gas emissions include the use of bioenergy as a means to reduce CO2 emissions or even to achieve negative emissions (together with CCS – carbon capture and storage). The potential amount of CO2 that can be removed from the atmosphere depends, among others, on the yields of bioenergy crops, the land available to grow these crops and the efficiency with which CO2 produced by combustion is captured. While bioenergy crop yields can be simulated by models, estimates of the spatial distribution of bioenergy yields under current technology based on a large number of observations are currently lacking. In this study, a random-forest (RF) algorithm is used to upscale a bioenergy yield dataset of 3963 observations covering Miscanthus, switchgrass, eucalypt, poplar and willow using climatic and soil conditions as explanatory variables. The results are global yield maps of five important lignocellulosic bioenergy crops under current technology, climate and atmospheric CO2 conditions at a 0.5∘×0.5∘ spatial resolution. We also provide a combined “best bioenergy crop” yield map by selecting one of the five crop types with the highest yield in each of the grid cells, eucalypt and Miscanthus in most cases. The global median yield of the best crop is 16.3 t DM ha−1 yr−1 (DM – dry matter). High yields mainly occur in the Amazon region and southeastern Asia. We further compare our empirically derived maps with yield maps used in three IAMs and find that the median yields in our maps are > 50 % higher than those in the IAM maps. Our estimates of gridded bioenergy crop yields can be used to provide bioenergy yields for IAMs, to evaluate land surface models or to identify the most suitable lands for future bioenergy crop plantations. The 0.5∘×0.5∘ global maps for yields of different bioenergy crops and the best crop and for the best crop composition generated from this study can be download from https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3274254 (Li, 2019).
Published: 2020

11. Reply to: Why fossil fuel producer subsidies matter

Author: Hannah Daly, David L. McCollum, Vadim Vinichenko, Volker Krey, Loïc Berger, Christoph Bertram, Jessica Jewell, Leonidas Paroussas, Kostas Fragkiadakis, David E.H.J. Gernaat, Ilkka Keppo, Massimo Tavoni, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Johannes Emmerling, Keywan Riahi, Lille économie management - UMR 9221 (LEM), Université d'Artois (UA)-Université catholique de Lille (UCL)-Université de Lille-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), UCL Energy Institute, University College of London [London] (UCL), International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [Laxenburg] (IIASA), PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Institute of Communication and Computer Systems (E3MLab ), National Technical University of Athens [Athens] (NTUA), Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei [Milano] (FEEM), European Institute on Economics and the Environment (EIEE), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), IÉSEG School Of Management [Puteaux], and Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici [Bologna] (CMCC)
Subjects: Multidisciplinary, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, business.industry, Natural resource economics, 020209 energy, Fossil fuel, letter, Subsidy, 02 engineering and technology, [SHS.ECO]Humanities and Social Sciences/Economics and Finance, 01 natural sciences, Energy infrastructure, Energy policy, [SHS]Humanities and Social Sciences, Climate change mitigation, Taverne, 0202 electrical engineering, electronic engineering, information engineering, Economics, business, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS, fossil fuel, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Abstract: International audience
Published: 2020

12. Global Carbon Budget 2019

Author: P. Friedlingstein, M. W. Jones, M. O'Sullivan, R. M. Andrew, J. Hauck, G. P. Peters, W. Peters, J. Pongratz, S. Sitch, C. Le Quéré, D. C. E. Bakker, J. G. Canadell, P. Ciais, R. B. Jackson, P. Anthoni, L. Barbero, A. Bastos, V. Bastrikov, M. Becker, L. Bopp, E. Buitenhuis, N. Chandra, F. Chevallier, L. P. Chini, K. I. Currie, R. A. Feely, M. Gehlen, D. Gilfillan, T. Gkritzalis, D. S. Goll, N. Gruber, S. Gutekunst, I. Harris, V. Haverd, R. A. Houghton, G. Hurtt, T. Ilyina, A. K. Jain, E. Joetzjer, J. O. Kaplan, E. Kato, K. Klein Goldewijk, J. I. Korsbakken, P. Landschützer, S. K. Lauvset, N. Lefèvre, A. Lenton, S. Lienert, D. Lombardozzi, G. Marland, P. C. McGuire, J. R. Melton, N. Metzl, D. R. Munro, J. E. M. S. Nabel, S.-I. Nakaoka, C. Neill, A. M. Omar, T. Ono, A. Peregon, D. Pierrot, B. Poulter, G. Rehder, L. Resplandy, E. Robertson, C. Rödenbeck, R. Séférian, J. Schwinger, N. Smith, P. P. Tans, H. Tian, B. Tilbrook, F. N. Tubiello, G. R. van der Werf, A. J. Wiltshire, S. Zaehle, College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences [Exeter] (EMPS), University of Exeter, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of East Anglia [Norwich] (UEA), New Zealand Centre for Ecological Economics (NZCEE), Alfred-Wegener-Institut, Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung (AWI), Center for International Climate and Environmental Research [Oslo] (CICERO), University of Oslo (UiO), Wageningen University and Research [Wageningen] (WUR), Department of Global Ecology [Carnegie] (DGE), Carnegie Institution for Science, College of Life and Environmental Sciences [Exeter], School of Environmental Sciences [Norwich], Oceans and Atmosphere Flagship (CSIRO), CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere Flagship, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies (CIMAS), Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science (RSMAS), University of Miami [Coral Gables]-University of Miami [Coral Gables], Department of Geography [München], Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München (LMU), Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research (BCCR), Department of Biological Sciences [Bergen] (BIO / UiB), University of Bergen (UiB)-University of Bergen (UiB), Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) (LMD), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris, École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL), Physical Research Laboratory [Ahmedabad] (PRL), Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO), Modélisation INVerse pour les mesures atmosphériques et SATellitaires (SATINV), Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland [College Park], University of Maryland System-University of Maryland System, National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research [Wellington] (NIWA), NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory [Seattle] (PMEL), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Modelling the Earth Response to Multiple Anthropogenic Interactions and Dynamics (MERMAID), Flanders Marine Institute, VLIZ, Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics [Los Angeles] (IGPP), University of California [Los Angeles] (UCLA), University of California (UC)-University of California (UC), Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI-M), Max-Planck-Gesellschaft, Department of Atmospheric Sciences [Urbana], University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign [Urbana], University of Illinois System-University of Illinois System, Montana State University (MSU), University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom, The Institute of Applied Energy (IAE), PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie (MPI-M), Austral, Boréal et Carbone (ABC), Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité), Climate and Environmental Physics [Bern] (CEP), Physikalisches Institut [Bern], Universität Bern [Bern] (UNIBE)-Universität Bern [Bern] (UNIBE), National Center for Atmospheric Research [Boulder] (NCAR), Environment and Climate Change Canada, Cycles biogéochimiques marins : processus et perturbations (CYBIOM), University of Wisconsin Whitewater, National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology (AIST), Finnish Environment Institute (SYKE), Princeton University, Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Change (MOHC), United Kingdom Met Office [Exeter], Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry (MPI-BGC), Shandong Agricultural University (SDAU), Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation [Canberra] (CSIRO), Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Regional Office for the Near East and North Africa (FAO), Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations [Rome, Italie] (FAO), Faculty of Earth and Life Sciences [Amsterdam] (FALW), Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam [Amsterdam] (VU), Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Carnegie Institution for Science [Washington], Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), University of California-University of California, Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Universität Bern [Bern]-Universität Bern [Bern], Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU), Department of Global Ecology [Carnegie Institution], College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, National Institute of Water & Atmospheric Research, Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris-Saclay-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), ARVE, Sorbonne Université (SU)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD), Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Met Office Hadley Centre (MOHC), Biogeochemical Systems Department [Jena], Max-Planck-Gesellschaft-Max-Planck-Gesellschaft, Isotope Research, Earth Sciences, and Amsterdam Sustainability Institute
Subjects: Meteorologie en Luchtkwaliteit, ENVIRONMENT SIMULATOR JULES, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, 010501 environmental sciences, Atmospheric sciences, 01 natural sciences, chemistry.chemical_compound, SDG 13 - Climate Action, Land use, land-use change and forestry, Computer science, information & general works, DIOXIDE EMISSIONS, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS, SURFACE-OCEAN, lcsh:Environmental sciences, ddc:910, lcsh:GE1-350, EARTH SYSTEM MODEL, FOSSIL-FUEL, lcsh:QE1-996.5, Biosphere, Carbon dioxide, Meteorology and Air Quality, 530 Physics, [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes, Earth and Planetary Sciences(all), chemistry.chemical_element, [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-GEO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph], Carbon cycle, ANTHROPOGENIC CO2 UPTAKE, Deforestation, Life Science, SDG 14 - Life Below Water, ATMOSPHERIC CO2, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, LAND-COVER CHANGE, WIMEK, Land use, business.industry, Fossil fuel, LEAF-AREA INDEX, 15. Life on land, lcsh:Geology, OCEAN BIOGEOCHEMICAL MODEL, TheoryofComputation_MATHEMATICALLOGICANDFORMALLANGUAGES, chemistry, 13. Climate action, ddc:000, General Earth and Planetary Sciences, Environmental science, business, Carbon
Abstract: Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere – the “global carbon budget” – is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO2 emissions (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land use and land use change data and bookkeeping models. Atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its growth rate (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) and terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) are estimated with global process models constrained by observations. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the last decade available (2009–2018), EFF was 9.5±0.5 GtC yr−1, ELUC 1.5±0.7 GtC yr−1, GATM 4.9±0.02 GtC yr−1 (2.3±0.01 ppm yr−1), SOCEAN 2.5±0.6 GtC yr−1, and SLAND 3.2±0.6 GtC yr−1, with a budget imbalance BIM of 0.4 GtC yr−1 indicating overestimated emissions and/or underestimated sinks. For the year 2018 alone, the growth in EFF was about 2.1 % and fossil emissions increased to 10.0±0.5 GtC yr−1, reaching 10 GtC yr−1 for the first time in history, ELUC was 1.5±0.7 GtC yr−1, for total anthropogenic CO2 emissions of 11.5±0.9 GtC yr−1 (42.5±3.3 GtCO2). Also for 2018, GATM was 5.1±0.2 GtC yr−1 (2.4±0.1 ppm yr−1), SOCEAN was 2.6±0.6 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 3.5±0.7 GtC yr−1, with a BIM of 0.3 GtC. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 407.38±0.1 ppm averaged over 2018. For 2019, preliminary data for the first 6–10 months indicate a reduced growth in EFF of +0.6 % (range of −0.2 % to 1.5 %) based on national emissions projections for China, the USA, the EU, and India and projections of gross domestic product corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy for the rest of the world. Overall, the mean and trend in the five components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959–2018, but discrepancies of up to 1 GtC yr−1 persist for the representation of semi-decadal variability in CO2 fluxes. A detailed comparison among individual estimates and the introduction of a broad range of observations shows (1) no consensus in the mean and trend in land use change emissions over the last decade, (2) a persistent low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO2 flux in the northern extra-tropics, and (3) an apparent underestimation of the CO2 variability by ocean models outside the tropics. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global carbon budget and the progress in understanding of the global carbon cycle compared with previous publications of this data set (Le Quéré et al., 2018a, b, 2016, 2015a, b, 2014, 2013). The data generated by this work are available at https://doi.org/10.18160/gcp-2019 (Friedlingstein et al., 2019).
Published: 2019

13. Environmental co-benefits and adverse side-effects of alternative power sector decarbonization strategies

Author: Gunnar Luderer, Michaja Pehl, Anders Arvesen, Thomas Gibon, Benjamin L. Bodirsky, Harmen Sytze de Boer, Oliver Fricko, Mohamad Hejazi, Florian Humpenöder, Gokul Iyer, Silvana Mima, Ioanna Mouratiadou, Robert C. Pietzcker, Alexander Popp, Maarten van den Berg, Detlef van Vuuren, Edgar G. Hertwich, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Luxembourg Institute of Science and Technology (LIST), PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Laboratoire d'Economie Appliquée de Grenoble (GAEL), Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA), Scottish Agricultural College, University of Edinburgh, Utrecht University [Utrecht], Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP )-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Université Grenoble Alpes [2016-2019] (UGA [2016-2019]), European UnionEuropean Union (EU) [730403, 730035], Research Council of NorwayResearch Council of Norway [209697, 288047], Luxembourg National Research FundLuxembourg National Research Fund [INTER/RCN/18/12772313], European Project: 308329,EC:FP7:ENV,FP7-ENV-2012-two-stage,ADVANCE(2013), Environmental Sciences, Biobased Economy, Energy and Resources, and Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP )-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Grenoble Alpes [2016-2019] (UGA [2016-2019])
Subjects: Greenhouse Effect, bioenergy, mining, Energy modelling, Global Warming, evaporation, environmental management, Environmental impact, integrated assessment, prevention and control, electricity, lcsh:Science, ecosystem health, depletion, ecotoxicity, severe accidents, risk evaluation and mitigation strategy, [SHS.ECO]Humanities and Social Sciences/Economics and Finance, climate change, eutrophication, climate-change mitigation, greenhouse gas, power supply, water demand, air pollution control, ionizing radiation, carbon footprint, life-cycle assessment, Science, Article, fossil energy, Greenhouse Gases, Electric Power Supplies, Air Pollution, land-use, Humans, air-pollution, human, Renewable Energy, transformation pathways, Ecosystem, particulate matter, impact assessment, air particle control, decarbonization, toxicity, Carbon Dioxide, nuclear energy, lcsh:Q, electricity-generation
Abstract: A rapid and deep decarbonization of power supply worldwide is required to limit global warming to well below 2 °C. Beyond greenhouse gas emissions, the power sector is also responsible for numerous other environmental impacts. Here we combine scenarios from integrated assessment models with a forward-looking life-cycle assessment to explore how alternative technology choices in power sector decarbonization pathways compare in terms of non-climate environmental impacts at the system level. While all decarbonization pathways yield major environmental co-benefits, we find that the scale of co-benefits as well as profiles of adverse side-effects depend strongly on technology choice. Mitigation scenarios focusing on wind and solar power are more effective in reducing human health impacts compared to those with low renewable energy, while inducing a more pronounced shift away from fossil and toward mineral resource depletion. Conversely, non-climate ecosystem damages are highly uncertain but tend to increase, chiefly due to land requirements for bioenergy., There lacks a consistent and holistic evaluation of co-benefits of different mitigation pathways in studies on Integrated Assessment Models. Here the authors quantify environmental co-benefits and adverse side-effects of a portfolio of alternative power sector decarbonisation pathways and show that the scale of co-benefits as well as profiles of adverse side-effects depend strongly on technology choice.
Published: 2019

14. Exploring pathways of solar PV learning-by-doing in Integrated Assessment Models

Author: Carrara, Samuel, Bevione, Michela, de Boer, Harmen Sytze, Gernaat, David, Mima, Silvana, Pietzcker, Robert C., Tavoni, Massimo, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei [Milano] (FEEM), Sustainability transition, environment, economy and local policy (STEEP), Inria Grenoble - Rhône-Alpes, Institut National de Recherche en Informatique et en Automatique (Inria)-Institut National de Recherche en Informatique et en Automatique (Inria)-Laboratoire Jean Kuntzmann (LJK), Université Pierre Mendès France - Grenoble 2 (UPMF)-Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 (UJF)-Institut Polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA)-Université Pierre Mendès France - Grenoble 2 (UPMF)-Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 (UJF)-Institut Polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA), PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Laboratoire d'Economie Appliquée de Grenoble (GAEL), Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA), Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Politecnico di Milano [Milan] (POLIMI), Associazione Italia Economisti dell' Energia, Sustainability transition, environment, economy and local policy (STEEP ), Institut National de Recherche en Informatique et en Automatique (Inria)-Institut National de Recherche en Informatique et en Automatique (Inria)-Laboratoire Jean Kuntzmann (LJK ), Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP )-Institut National de Recherche en Informatique et en Automatique (Inria)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Grenoble Alpes [2016-2019] (UGA [2016-2019])-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP )-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Grenoble Alpes [2016-2019] (UGA [2016-2019]), and Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP )-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Grenoble Alpes [2016-2019] (UGA [2016-2019])
Subjects: [SHS.ECO]Humanities and Social Sciences/Economics and Finance, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS
Abstract: International audience
Published: 2018

15. Evaluating sustainability transitions pathways: Bridging analytical approaches to address governance challenges

Author: Frank W. Geels, Andrew McMeekin, Andries F. Hof, Bruno Turnheim, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Björn Nykvist, Frans Berkhout, Laboratoire Interdisciplinaire Sciences, Innovations, Sociétés (LISIS), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Université Paris-Est Marne-la-Vallée (UPEM)-ESIEE Paris-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), King‘s College London, Manchester Business School (MBS), University of Manchester [Manchester], PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Utrecht University [Utrecht], Stockholm Environment Institute, and Environmental Sciences
Subjects: Sociotechnical system, Bridging (networking), Monitoring, Relation (database), Computer science, media_common.quotation_subject, Ecology (disciplines), Socio-technical, Geography, Planning and Development, Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law, Modelling, [SHS]Humanities and Social Sciences, Taverne, Quality (business), Sustainability transitions, Transition pathways, Governance, media_common, Planning and Development, Global and Planetary Change, Policy and Law, Geography, Ecology, Management science, business.industry, Corporate governance, Environmental resource management, Management, Sustainability, Key (cryptography), business
Abstract: International audience; The paper sets out a proposal for bridging and linking three approaches to the analysis of transitions to sustainable and low-carbon societies: quantitative systems modelling; socio-technical transition analysis; and initiative-based learning. We argue that each of these approaches presents a partial and incomplete picture, which has implications for the quality and usefulness of the insights they can deliver for policy and practice. A framework for bridging these different approaches promises to enrich each of the approaches, while providing the basis for a more robust and complete analysis of sustainable transitions pathways that serves better to address questions and dilemmas faced by decision-makers and practitioners. We elaborate five key challenges for the analysis and governance of transitions pathways, and compare the three approaches in relation to each of these. We suggest an integration strategy based on alignment, bridging, and iteration, arguing that a structured dialogue between practitioners of different approaches is needed. In practical terms, such a dialogue would be organised around three areas of joint knowledge production: defining common analytical or governance problems to be tackled through integration; establishing shared concepts (boundary objects); and establishing operational bridging devices (data and metrics, pathways evaluation and their delivery). Such processes could include experts and societal partners. We draw conclusions about future research perspectives and the role of analysis in transitions governance.
Published: 2015

16. Enhancing global climate policy ambition towards a 1.5 °C stabilization: a short-term multi-model assessment

Author: Vrontisi, Zoi, Luderer, Gunnar, Saveyn, Bert, Keramidas, Kimon, Lara, Aleluia Reis, Baumstark, Lavinia, Bertram, Christoph, De Boer, Harmen Sytze, Drouet, Laurent, Fragkiadakis, Kostas, Fricko, Oliver, Fujimori, Shinichiro, Guivarch, Celine, Kitous, Alban, Krey, Volker, Kriegler, Elmar, Broin, Eoin, Paroussos, Leonidas, Van Vuuren, Detlef, Environmental Sciences, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), centre international de recherche sur l'environnement et le développement (CIRED), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-École des hautes études en sciences sociales (EHESS)-AgroParisTech-Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad), Enerdata, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [Laxenburg] (IIASA), National Technical University of Athens [Athens] (NTUA), PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, and Environmental Sciences
Subjects: Natural resource economics, 020209 energy, Public policy, 02 engineering and technology, Paris Agreement, 7. Clean energy, Energy policy, Gross domestic product, 12. Responsible consumption, energy system, integrated assessment modelling, Electrification, Environmental Science(all), 11. Sustainability, 0202 electrical engineering, electronic engineering, information engineering, Economics, INDC, mitigation cost, Renewable Energy, 1.5 degree, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS, General Environmental Science, Sustainability and the Environment, business.industry, Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment, Environmental and Occupational Health, 1. No poverty, Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health, [SHS.ECO]Humanities and Social Sciences/Economics and Finance, Renewable energy, 2 degrees, 13. Climate action, [SHS.ENVIR]Humanities and Social Sciences/Environmental studies, Public Health, Integrated assessment modelling, Energy source, business, Efficient energy use
Abstract: The Paris Agreement is a milestone in international climate policy as it establishes a global mitigation framework towards 2030 and sets the ground for a potential 1.5 °C climate stabilization. To provide useful insights for the 2018 UNFCCC Talanoa facilitative dialogue, we use eight state-of-the-art climate-energy-economy models to assess the effectiveness of the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) in meeting high probability 1.5 and 2 °C stabilization goals. We estimate that the implementation of conditional INDCs in 2030 leaves an emissions gap from least cost 2 °C and 1.5 °C pathways for year 2030 equal to 15.6 (9.0–20.3) and 24.6 (18.5–29.0) GtCO2eq respectively. The immediate transition to a more efficient and low-carbon energy system is key to achieving the Paris goals. The decarbonization of the power supply sector delivers half of total CO2 emission reductions in all scenarios, primarily through high penetration of renewables and energy efficiency improvements. In combination with an increased electrification of final energy demand, low-carbon power supply is the main short-term abatement option. We find that the global macroeconomic cost of mitigation efforts does not reduce the 2020–2030 annual GDP growth rates in any model more than 0.1 percentage points in the INDC or 0.3 and 0.5 in the 2 °C and 1.5 °C scenarios respectively even without accounting for potential co-benefits and avoided climate damages. Accordingly, the median GDP reductions across all models in 2030 are 0.4%, 1.2% and 3.3% of reference GDP for each respective scenario. Costs go up with increasing mitigation efforts but a fragmented action, as implied by the INDCs, results in higher costs per unit of abated emissions. On a regional level, the cost distribution is different across scenarios while fossil fuel exporters see the highest GDP reductions in all INDC, 2 °C and 1.5 °C scenarios.
Published: 2018

17. Limited emission reductions from fuel subsidy removal except in energy-exporting regions

Author: Loïc Berger, Christoph Bertram, Vadim Vinichenko, Leonidas Paroussos, David L. McCollum, Volker Krey, Keywan Riahi, Nawfal Saadi, Johannes Emmerling, Massimo Tavoni, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Jessica Jewell, Kostas Fragkiadakis, Ilkka Keppo, David E.H.J. Gernaat, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [Laxenburg] (IIASA), European Institute on Economics and the Environment (EIEE), Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, National Technical University of Athens [Athens] (NTUA), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), IÉSEG School Of Management [Puteaux], Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici [Bologna] (CMCC), Institute of Communication and Computer Systems (E3MLab ), UCL Energy Institute, University College of London [London] (UCL), Lille économie management - UMR 9221 (LEM), and Université d'Artois (UA)-Université catholique de Lille (UCL)-Université de Lille-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)
Subjects: carbon footprint, poverty, Natural resource economics, 020209 energy, 02 engineering and technology, 010501 environmental sciences, 01 natural sciences, 7. Clean energy, Carbon price, Taverne, 11. Sustainability, 0202 electrical engineering, electronic engineering, information engineering, Market price, highest income group, human, fossil fuel, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, Multidisciplinary, business.industry, carbon, Fossil fuel, article, 1. No poverty, Subsidy, [SHS.ECO]Humanities and Social Sciences/Economics and Finance, renewable energy, Renewable energy, natural gas, climate change, Climate change mitigation, 13. Climate action, Greenhouse gas, 8. Economic growth, Carbon footprint, Environmental science, France, business
Abstract: Hopes are high that removing fossil fuel subsidies could help to mitigate climate change by discouraging inefficient energy consumption and levelling the playing field for renewable energy. In September 2016, the G20 countries re-affirmed their 2009 commitment (at the G20 Leaders' Summit) to phase out fossil fuel subsidies and many national governments are using today's low oil prices as an opportunity to do so. In practical terms, this means abandoning policies that decrease the price of fossil fuels and electricity generated from fossil fuels to below normal market prices. However, whether the removal of subsidies, even if implemented worldwide, would have a large impact on climate change mitigation has not been systematically explored. Here we show that removing fossil fuel subsidies would have an unexpectedly small impact on global energy demand and carbon dioxide emissions and would not increase renewable energy use by 2030. Subsidy removal would reduce the carbon price necessary to stabilize greenhouse gas concentration at 550 parts per million by only 2-12 per cent under low oil prices. Removing subsidies in most regions would deliver smaller emission reductions than the Paris Agreement (2015) climate pledges and in some regions global subsidy removal may actually lead to an increase in emissions, owing to either coal replacing subsidized oil and natural gas or natural-gas use shifting from subsidizing, energy-exporting regions to non-subsidizing, importing regions. Our results show that subsidy removal would result in the largest CO 2 emission reductions in high-income oil- and gas-exporting regions, where the reductions would exceed the climate pledges of these regions and where subsidy removal would affect fewer people living below the poverty line than in lower-income regions.
Published: 2018

18. Tradeoffs in the quest for climate smart agricultural intensification in Mato Grosso, Brazil

Author: Judson Ferreira Valentim, A. Rotz, Júlio César dos Reis, Rachael D. Garrett, Gabrielle Ferreira Pires, Luciano Bastos Lopes, Marcos Heil Costa, Juliana Gil, Vassilis Daioglou, Juliana Dias Bernardes Gil, Wageningen University/Boston University, Rachael D. Garrett, Boston University, Alan Rotz, USDA-ARS-Pasture Systems andWatershed Management Research Unit, Vassilis Daioglou, PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency/Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, JUDSON FERREIRA VALENTIM, CPAF-Acre, Gabrielle F. Pires, Universidade Federal de Visçosa (UFV), Marcos H. Costa, Universidade Federal de Viçosa (UFV), LUCIANO BASTOS LOPES, CPAMT, JULIO CESAR DOS REIS, CPAMT., JULIANA DIAS BERNARDES GIL, WAGENINGEN UNIVERSITY, RACHAEL D. GARRETT, BOSTON UNIVERSITY, ALAN ROTZ, USDA-ARS, VASSILIS DAIOGLOU, UTRECHT UNIVERSITY, JUDSON FERREIRA VALENTIM, CPAF-AC, GABRIELLE F. PIRES, UFV, and MARCOS H. COSTA, UFV
Subjects: integrated crop-livestock systems, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Natural resource economics, Climate, Sistemas agrícolas integrados, 01 natural sciences, Environmental impact, Environmental Science(all), Environmental sustainability, Integrated crop-livestock systems, Climate scenarios, Pasture intensification, Low carbon agriculture, Sustainability, Deforestation, General Environmental Science, 2. Zero hunger, Redução, Integrated crop management, 1. No poverty, Sustainable agriculture, 04 agricultural and veterinary sciences, Climate resilience, PE&RC, pasture intensification, sustainability, Sistema de Pastejo, low carbon agriculture, Ganado bovino, Plant Production Systems, Impacto Ambiental, Extensive farming, Efecto invernadero, Public Health, Agricultural management models, Sustainable agricultural intensification, Livestock, Criação Extensiva, Efeito Estufa, Climate change, Agricultura sustentable, Greenhouse effect, Reducción de riesgos, Climate models, 12. Responsible consumption, Amazonia, Greenhouse gas emissions, Agricultural policy, Renewable Energy, Agricultura Sustentável, Productivity, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, Land, Sustainability and the Environment, Pastures, Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment, business.industry, Environmental and Occupational Health, Global warming, Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health, 15. Life on land, climate scenarios, 13. Climate action, Agriculture, Pecuária, Greenhouse gas, Plantaardige Productiesystemen, Deforestación, 040103 agronomy & agriculture, Risk reduction, 0401 agriculture, forestry, and fisheries, Environmental science, Pecuária extensiva, Cattle, business, Desmatamento, Integrated agricultural systems
Abstract: Low productivity cattle ranching, with its linkages to rural poverty, deforestation and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, remains one of the largest sustainability challenges in Brazil and has impacts worldwide. There is a nearly universal call to intensify extensive beef cattle production systems to spare land for crop production and nature and to meet Brazil's Intended Nationally Determined Contribution to reducing global climate change. However, different interventions aimed at the intensification of livestock systems in Brazil may involve substantial social and environmental tradeoffs. Here we examine these tradeoffs using a whole-farm model calibrated for the Brazilian agricultural frontier state of Mato Grosso, one of the largest soybean and beef cattle production regions in the world. Specifically, we compare the costs and benefits of a typical extensive, continuously grazed cattle system relative to a specialized soybean production system and two improved cattle management strategies (rotational grazing and integrated soybean-cattle) under different climate scenarios. We found clear tradeoffs in GHG and nitrogen emissions, climate resilience, and water and energy use across these systems. Relative to continuously grazed or rotationally grazed cattle systems, the integreated soybean-cattle system showed higher food production and lower GHG emissions per unit of human digestible protein, as well as increased resilience under climate change (both in terms of productivity and financial returns). All systems suffered productivity and profitability losses under severe climate change, highlighting the need for climate smart agricultural development strategies in the region. By underscoring the economic feasibility of improving the performance of cattle systems, and by quantifying the tradeoffs of each option, our results are useful for directing agricultural and climate policy. Made available in DSpace on 2019-02-11T23:44:35Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 1 2018cpamtlucianolopestradeoffsquestclimatesmartagriculturalintensificationmatogrosso.pdf: 2088603 bytes, checksum: 7303bc46e355216bd05fb8492b71b089 (MD5) Previous issue date: 2019-02-11
Published: 2018

19. Land-use emissions play a critical role in land-based mitigation for Paris climate targets

Author: Stephen Sitch, Philippe Ciais, Andreas Krause, Peter M. Cox, Eddy Robertson, Atul K. Jain, William J. Collins, Garry Hayman, Lena Boysen, Christopher P. Webber, Timothy M. Lenton, Eleanor J. Burke, N. Devaraju, Jonathan C. Doelman, Edward Comyn-Platt, Sarah Chadburn, Anna B. Harper, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Vassilis Daioglou, Chris Huntingford, Ben Poulter, Ana Bastos, Joanna Isobel House, Andy Wiltshire, Tom Powell, Shijie Shu, College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences [Exeter] (EMPS), University of Exeter, College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, School of Geographical Sciences [Bristol], University of Bristol [Bristol], Centre for Ecology and Hydrology [Wallingford] (CEH), Natural Environment Research Council (NERC), Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Change (MOHC), United Kingdom Met Office [Exeter], University of Leeds, Department of Meteorology [Reading], University of Reading (UOR), PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Department of Geography [München], Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München (LMU), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI-M), Max-Planck-Gesellschaft, ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Department of Atmospheric Sciences [Urbana], University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign [Urbana], University of Illinois System-University of Illinois System, Institute of Nanotechnology [Karlsruhe] (INT), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), European Project: 641816,H2020,H2020-SC5-2014-two-stage,CRESCENDO(2015), European Project: 603542,EC:FP7:ENV,FP7-ENV-2013-two-stage,LUC4C(2013), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), and Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)
Subjects: 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Life on Land, Science, General Physics and Astronomy, Climate change, 010501 environmental sciences, Carbon sequestration, 01 natural sciences, 7. Clean energy, General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology, Article, Meteorology and Climatology, Affordable and Clean Energy, Environmental protection, Deforestation, 11. Sustainability, Carbon capture and storage, ddc:550, lcsh:Science, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, Multidisciplinary, Global warming, Reforestation, Bio-energy with carbon capture and storage, General Chemistry, Soil carbon, 15. Life on land, Climate Action, Earth sciences, 13. Climate action, [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology, [SDE]Environmental Sciences, Environmental science, lcsh:Q
Abstract: Scenarios that limit global warming to below 2 °C by 2100 assume significant land-use change to support large-scale carbon dioxide (CO2) removal from the atmosphere by afforestation/reforestation, avoided deforestation, and Biomass Energy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS). The more ambitious mitigation scenarios require even greater land area for mitigation and/or earlier adoption of CO2 removal strategies. Here we show that additional land-use change to meet a 1.5 °C climate change target could result in net losses of carbon from the land. The effectiveness of BECCS strongly depends on several assumptions related to the choice of biomass, the fate of initial above ground biomass, and the fossil-fuel emissions offset in the energy system. Depending on these factors, carbon removed from the atmosphere through BECCS could easily be offset by losses due to land-use change. If BECCS involves replacing high-carbon content ecosystems with crops, then forest-based mitigation could be more efficient for atmospheric CO2 removal than BECCS., Land-based mitigation for meeting the Paris climate target must consider the carbon cycle impacts of land-use change. Here the authors show that when bioenergy crops replace high carbon content ecosystems, forest-based mitigation could be more effective for CO2 removal than bioenergy crops with carbon capture and storage.
Published: 2018

20. Global Carbon Budget 2017

Author: Le Quéré, Corinne, Andrew, Robbie M., Friedlingstein, Pierre, Sitch, Stephen, Pongratz, Julia, Manning, Andrew C., Korsbakken, Jan Ivar, Peters, Glen P., Canadell, Josep G., Jackson, Robert B., Boden, Thomas A., Tans, Pieter P., Andrews, Oliver D., Arora, Vivek, Bakker, Dorothee C. E., Barbero, Leticia, Becker, Meike, Betts, Richard, Bopp, Laurent, Chevallier, Frédéric, Chini, Louise P., Ciais, Philippe, Cosca, Catherine E., Cross, Jessica, Currie, Kim, Gasser, Thomas, Harris, Ian, Hauck, Judith, Haverd, Vanessa, Houghton, Richard A., Hunt, Christopher W., Hurtt, George, Ilyina, Tatiana, Jain, Atul K., Kato, Etsushi, Kautz, Markus, Keeling, Ralph F., Klein Goldewijk, Kees, Körtzinger, Arne, Landschützer, Peter, Lefèvre, Nathalie, Lenton, Andrew, Lienert, Sebastian, Lima, Ivan D., Lombardozzi, Danica, Metzl, Nicolas, Millero, Frank J., Monteiro, Pedro M. S., Munro, David R., Nabel, Julia E. M. S., Nakaoka, Shin-ichiro, Nojiri, Yukihiro, Padin, X. Antonio, Peregon, Anna, Pfeil, Benjamin, Pierrot, Denis, Poulter, Benjamin, Rehder, Gregor, Reimer, Janet, Rödenbeck, Christian, Schwinger, Jörg, Séférian, Roland, Skjelvan, Ingunn, Stocker, Benjamin D., Tian, Hanqin, Tilbrook, Bronte, Tubiello, Francesco, van der Laan-Luijkx, Ingrid T., Van Der Werf, Guido R., Van Heuven, Steven M. A. C., Viovy, Nicolas, Vuichard, Nicolas, Walker, Anthony P., Watson, Andrew J., Wiltshire, Andrew J., Zaehle, Sönke, Zhu, Dan, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of East Anglia [Norwich] (UEA), Center for International Climate and Environmental Research [Oslo] (CICERO), University of Oslo (UiO), College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI-M), Max-Planck-Gesellschaft, Global Carbon Project, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Department of Earth System Science [Stanford] (ESS), Stanford EARTH, Stanford University-Stanford University, Climate Change Science Institute [Oak Ridge] (CCSI), Oak Ridge National Laboratory [Oak Ridge] (ORNL), UT-Battelle, LLC-UT-Battelle, LLC, ESRL Chemical Sciences Division [Boulder] (CSD), NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)-National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma), Environment and Climate Change Canada, Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies, Rosenstiel School for Marine and Atmospheric Science (CIMAS), Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science (RSMAS), University of Miami [Coral Gables]-University of Miami [Coral Gables], NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory (AOML), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research (BCCR), Department of Biological Sciences [Bergen] (BIO / UiB), University of Bergen (UiB)-University of Bergen (UiB), Geophysical Institute [Bergen] (GFI / BiU), University of Bergen (UiB), Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) (LMD), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris, École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Modélisation INVerse pour les mesures atmosphériques et SATellitaires (SATINV), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland [College Park], University of Maryland System-University of Maryland System, ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory [Seattle] (PMEL), National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research [Wellington] (NIWA), International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [Laxenburg] (IIASA), Climatic Research Unit, Alfred-Wegener-Institut, Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung (AWI), Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI), Ocean Process Analysis Laboratory, University of New Hampshire (UNH), Department of Atmospheric Sciences [Urbana], University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign [Urbana], University of Illinois System-University of Illinois System, The Institute of Applied Energy (IAE), Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT), University of California [San Diego] (UC San Diego), University of California, PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Christian-Albrechts-Universität zu Kiel (CAU), Austral, Boréal et Carbone (ABC), Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU), CISRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Antarctic Climate & Ecosystem Cooperative Research Centre, University of Tasmania [Hobart, Australia] (UTAS), Climate and Environmental Physics [Bern] (CEP), Physikalisches Institut [Bern], Universität Bern [Bern]-Universität Bern [Bern], Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research (OCCR), University of Bern, National Center for Atmospheric Research [Boulder] (NCAR), Cycles biogéochimiques marins : processus et perturbations (CYBIOM), Department of Ocean Sciences, University of Miami [Coral Gables], Instituto de Engenharia de Sistemas e Computadores Investigação e Desenvolvimento em Lisboa (INESC-ID), Instituto Superior Técnico, Universidade Técnica de Lisboa (IST)-Instituto de Engenharia de Sistemas e Computadores (INESC), University of Wisconsin Whitewater, National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Montana State University (MSU), Max-Planck-Institut für Biogeochemie (MPI-BGC), Groupe d'étude de l'atmosphère météorologique (CNRM-GAME), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Météo France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Shandong Agricultural University (SDAU), Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre (ACE-CRC), Wageningen University and Research [Wageningen] (WUR), Faculty of Earth and Life Sciences [Amsterdam] (FALW), Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam [Amsterdam] (VU), Modélisation des Surfaces et Interfaces Continentales (MOSAIC), NASA Ames Research Center (ARC), Biogeochemical Systems Department [Jena], Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry (MPI-BGC), Max-Planck-Gesellschaft-Max-Planck-Gesellschaft, and Huazhong University of Science and Technology [Wuhan] (HUST)
Subjects: [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-GEO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph]
Abstract: International audience; Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere – the "global carbon budget" – is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and methodology to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, respectively, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on land-cover change data and bookkeeping models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) and terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) are estimated with global process models constrained by observations. The resulting carbon budget imbalance (BIM), the difference between the estimated total emissions and the estimated changes in the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere, is a measure of imperfect data and understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ. For the last decade available (2007–2016), EFF was 9.4 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, ELUC 1.3 ± 0.7 GtC yr−1, GATM 4.7 ± 0.1 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN 2.4 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND 3.0 ± 0.8 GtC yr−1, with a budget imbalance BIM of 0.6 GtC yr−1 indicating overestimated emissions and/or underestimated sinks. For year 2016 alone, the growth in EFF was approximately zero and emissions remained at 9.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1. Also for 2016, ELUC was 1.3 ± 0.7 GtC yr−1, GATM was 6.1 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN was 2.6 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 2.7 ± 1.0 GtC yr−1, with a small BIM of −0.3 GtC. GATM continued to be higher in 2016 compared to the past decade (2007–2016), reflecting in part the high fossil emissions and the small SLAND consistent with El Niño conditions. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 402.8 ± 0.1 ppm averaged over 2016. For 2017, preliminary data for the first 6–9 months indicate a renewed growth in EFF of +2.0 % (range of 0.8 to 3.0 %) based on national emissions projections for China, USA, and India, and projections of gross domestic product (GDP) corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy for the rest of the world. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new global carbon budget compared with previous publications of this data set (Le Quéré et al., 2016, 2015b, a, 2014, 2013). All results presented here can be downloaded from https://doi.org/10.18160/GCP-2017 (GCP, 2017).
Published: 2018

21. A protocol for an intercomparison of biodiversity and ecosystem services models using harmonized land-use and climate scenarios

Author: H. Kim, I. M. D. Rosa, R. Alkemade, P. Leadley, G. Hurtt, A. Popp, D. P. van Vuuren, P. Anthoni, A. Arneth, D. Baisero, E. Caton, R. Chaplin-Kramer, L. Chini, A. De Palma, F. Di Fulvio, M. Di Marco, F. Espinoza, S. Ferrier, S. Fujimori, R. E. Gonzalez, M. Gueguen, C. Guerra, M. Harfoot, T. D. Harwood, T. Hasegawa, V. Haverd, P. Havlík, S. Hellweg, S. L. L. Hill, A. Hirata, A. J. Hoskins, J. H. Janse, W. Jetz, J. A. Johnson, A. Krause, D. Leclère, I. S. Martins, T. Matsui, C. Merow, M. Obersteiner, H. Ohashi, B. Poulter, A. Purvis, B. Quesada, C. Rondinini, A. M. Schipper, R. Sharp, K. Takahashi, W. Thuiller, N. Titeux, P. Visconti, C. Ware, F. Wolf, H. M. Pereira, Aquatic Ecology (AqE), Ecologie Systématique et Evolution (ESE), Ecole Nationale du Génie Rural, des Eaux et des Forêts (ENGREF)-Université Paris-Sud - Paris 11 (UP11)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland [College Park], University of Maryland System-University of Maryland System, Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung (PIK), PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung - Atmosphärische Umweltforschung (IMK-IFU), Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT), Natural Capital Project, Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University, National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Laboratoire d'Ecologie Alpine (LECA ), Université Savoie Mont Blanc (USMB [Université de Savoie] [Université de Chambéry])-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Grenoble Alpes [2016-2019] (UGA [2016-2019]), Oceans and Atmosphere Flagship [Brisbane], Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation [Canberra] (CSIRO), International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [Laxenburg] (IIASA), Land and Water Flagship [Canberra], Martin-Luther-Universität Halle Wittenberg (MLU), Yale University [New Haven], International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Montana State University (MSU), Division of Biology [London], Imperial College London, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Helmholtz Zentrum für Umweltforschung = Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (UFZ), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), and Environmental Sciences
Subjects: 0106 biological sciences, CARBON-CYCLE MODELS, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, RANGE SHIFTS, Ecosystem modeling, Biodiversity, 01 natural sciences, Ecosystem services, Carbon-cycle models, terrestrial biodiversity, species distribution, global biodiversity, atmoshere-ocean, simpler model, range switch, impacts, vegetation, future, TERRESTRIAL BIODIVERSITY, 11. Sustainability, SPECIES DISTRIBUTION, ddc:550, Climate change, Geosciences, Multidisciplinary, Land use change, Environmental planning, Strategic planning, 0303 health sciences, Convention on Biological Diversity, ATMOSPHERE-OCEAN, Environmental resource management, lcsh:QE1-996.5, Geology, Representative Concentration Pathways, General Medicine, international, Milieusysteemanalyse, Physical Sciences, IMPACTS, Conservation status, Ecosystem service, [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes, 04 Earth Sciences, Earth and Planetary Sciences(all), Harmonization, 010603 evolutionary biology, LPJ-GUESS, Intergovernmental panel on climate change, 03 medical and health sciences, FUTURE, Modelling and Simulation, Life Science, IPBES, 030304 developmental biology, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, Science & Technology, Land use, business.industry, 15. Life on land, [SDE.ES]Environmental Sciences/Environmental and Society, lcsh:Geology, Earth sciences, Environmental Systems Analysis, GLOBAL BIODIVERSITY, 13. Climate action, Strategic approach, Environmental science, VEGETATION, [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology, business, SIMPLER MODEL, Global biodiversity
Abstract: To support the assessments of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES), the IPBES Expert Group on Scenarios and Models is carrying out an intercomparison of biodiversity and ecosystem services models using harmonized scenarios (BES-SIM). The goals of BES-SIM are (1) to project the global impacts of land-use and climate change on biodiversity and ecosystem services (i.e., nature's contributions to people) over the coming decades, compared to the 20th century, using a set of common metrics at multiple scales, and (2) to identify model uncertainties and research gaps through the comparisons of projected biodiversity and ecosystem services across models. BES-SIM uses three scenarios combining specific Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) – SSP1xRCP2.6, SSP3xRCP6.0, SSP5xRCP8.6 – to explore a wide range of land-use change and climate change futures. This paper describes the rationale for scenario selection, the process of harmonizing input data for land use, based on the second phase of the Land Use Harmonization Project (LUH2), and climate, the biodiversity and ecosystem services models used, the core simulations carried out, the harmonization of the model output metrics, and the treatment of uncertainty. The results of this collaborative modeling project will support the ongoing global assessment of IPBES, strengthen ties between IPBES and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios and modeling processes, advise the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) on its development of a post-2020 strategic plans and conservation goals, and inform the development of a new generation of nature-centred scenarios. ISSN:1991-9603 ISSN:1991-959X
Published: 2018

22. Pathways for balancing CO2 emissions and sinks

Author: Walsh, Brian, Ciais, Philippe, Janssens, Ivan A, Peñuelas, Josep, Riahi, Keywan, Rydzak, Felicjan, van Vuuren, Detlef P, Obersteiner, Michael, Environmental Sciences, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [Laxenburg] (IIASA), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), University of Antwerp (UA), Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas [Madrid] (CSIC), Centre de Recerca Ecològica i Aplicacions Forestals, Univ. Autònoma de Barcelona (CREAF), université de Barcelone, PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, European Project: 610028,EC:FP7:ERC,ERC-2013-SyG,IMBALANCE-P(2014), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), and Environmental Sciences
Subjects: 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Primary energy, Natural resource economics, Science, General Physics and Astronomy, 010501 environmental sciences, 01 natural sciences, 7. Clean energy, General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology, Fossil fuel consumption, Environmental impact, 11. Sustainability, Environmental impact assessment, Climate and Earth system modelling, Climate-change mitigation, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, Consumption (economics), Multidisciplinary, business.industry, Global warming, Environmental resource management, General Chemistry, Climate change mitigation, IMBALANCE, 13. Climate action, [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology, Environmental science, Technological advance, business, Engineering sciences. Technology
Abstract: Imbalance-P paper Contact with: Josep Peñuelas, josep.penuelas@uab.cat In December 2015 in Paris, leaders committed to achieve global, net decarbonization of human activities before 2100. This achievement would halt and even reverse anthropogenic climate change through the net removal of carbon from the atmosphere. However, the Paris documents contain few specific prescriptions for emissions mitigation, leaving various countries to pursue their own agendas. In this analysis, we project energy and land-use emissions mitigation pathways through 2100, subject to best-available parameterization of carbon-climate feedbacks and interdependencies. We find that, barring unforeseen and transformative technological advancement, anthropogenic emissions need to peak within the next 10 years, to maintain realistic pathways to meeting the COP21 emissions and warming targets. Fossil fuel consumption will probably need to be reduced below a quarter of primary energy supply by 2100 and the allowable consumption rate drops even further if negative emissions technologies remain technologically or economically unfeasible at the global scale.
Published: 2017

23. The PMIP4 contribution to CMIP6 – Part 3: The last millennium,scientific objective, and experimental design for the PMIP4 past1000 simulations

Author: Jungclaus, J, Bard, E, Baroni, M, Braconnot, P, Cao, J, Chini, LP, Egorova, T, Evans, M, González-Rouco, JF, Goosse, H, Hurtt, GC, Joos, F, Kaplan, JO, Khodri, M, Goldewijk, KK, Krivova, N, LeGrande, AN, Lorenz, SJ, Luterbacher, J, Man, W, Maycock, AC, Meinshausen, M, Moberg, A, Muscheler, R, Nehrbass-Ahles, C, Otto-Bliesner, BI, Phipps, SJ, Pongratz, J, Rozanov, E, Schmidt, GA, Schmidt, H, Schmutz, W, Schurer, A, Shapiro, AI, Sigl, M, Smerdon, JE, Solanki, SK, Timmreck, C, Toohey, M, Usoskin, IG, Wagner, S, Wu, C-J, Yeo, KL, Zanchettin, D, Zhang, Q, Zorita, E, UCL - SST/ELI/ELIC - Earth & Climate, Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie (MPI-M), Max-Planck-Gesellschaft, Collège de France - Chaire Evolution du climat et de l'océan, Centre européen de recherche et d'enseignement des géosciences de l'environnement (CEREGE), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Aix Marseille Université (AMU)-Collège de France (CdF (institution))-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Aix Marseille Université (AMU)-Collège de France (CdF (institution))-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Modelling the Earth Response to Multiple Anthropogenic Interactions and Dynamics (MERMAID), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Department of Computer Science and Engineering [Shanghai] (CSE), Shanghai Jiao Tong University [Shanghai], Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland [College Park], University of Maryland System-University of Maryland System, Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science [Zürich] (IAC), Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology [Zürich] (ETH Zürich), University of Maryland System, Instituto de Geociencias [Madrid] (IGEO), Universidad Complutense de Madrid = Complutense University of Madrid [Madrid] (UCM)-Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas [Madrid] (CSIC), Université Catholique de Louvain = Catholic University of Louvain (UCL), Climate and Environmental Physics [Bern] (CEP), Physikalisches Institut [Bern], Universität Bern [Bern] (UNIBE)-Universität Bern [Bern] (UNIBE), Université de Lausanne = University of Lausanne (UNIL), Processus de la variabilité climatique tropicale et impacts (PARVATI), Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Max-Planck-Institut für Sonnensystemforschung = Max Planck Institute for Solar System Research (MPS), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Department of Geography, Justus-Liebig- University, Justus-Liebig-Universität Gießen = Justus Liebig University (JLU), Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), Institute of Atmospheric Physics [Beijing] (IAP), Chinese Academy of Sciences [Beijing] (CAS)-Chinese Academy of Sciences [Beijing] (CAS), University of Leeds, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, Department of Geology [Lund], Lund University [Lund], National Center for Atmospheric Research [Boulder] (NCAR), University of New South Wales [Sydney] (UNSW), Department of Global Ecology [Carnegie] (DGE), Carnegie Institution for Science, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI-M), Physikalisch-Meteorologisches Observatorium Davos/World Radiation Center (PMOD/WRC), School of Geosciences [Edinburgh], University of Edinburgh, School of Industrial and Systems Engineering [Georgia Tech] (ISyE), Georgia Institute of Technology [Atlanta], Laboratory of Radio- and Environmental Chemistry [Villigen], Paul Scherrer Institute (PSI), Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory (LDEO), Columbia University [New York], Leibniz-Institut für Meereswissenschaften (IFM-GEOMAR), University of Oulu, Eurecom [Sophia Antipolis], Department of Environmental Sciences, Informatics and Statistics [Venezia], University of Ca’ Foscari [Venice, Italy], Department of Physical Geography [Stockholm], Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht (GKSS), European Project: 603557,EC:FP7:ENV,FP7-ENV-2013-two-stage,STRATOCLIM(2013), Chaire Evolution du climat et de l'océan, Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Universität Bern [Bern]-Universität Bern [Bern], Université de Lausanne (UNIL), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Max-Planck-Institut für Sonnensystemforschung (MPS), Justus-Liebig-Universität Gießen (JLU), Carnegie Institution for Science [Washington], Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Collège de France (CdF)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Aix Marseille Université (AMU)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA), Université Paris-Saclay-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zürich [Zürich] (ETH Zürich), Universidad Complutense de Madrid [Madrid] (UCM)-Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas [Spain] (CSIC), Université Catholique de Louvain (UCL), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN), Department of Global Ecology [Carnegie Institution], Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas [Spain] (CSIC)-Universidad Complutense de Madrid [Madrid] (UCM), Environmental Sciences, Sub Gen. Pharmacoepi and Clinical Pharm, and SGPL Stadsgeografie
Subjects: Paleoclimate, 530 Physics, Natural forcing, Settore GEO/12 - Oceanografia e Fisica dell'Atmosfera, 610 Medicine & health, natural forcing, [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology, last millennium, 550 Earth sciences & geology, Climate and Earth system modelling, CMIP6, PMIP, Last millennium, CISM [CECI], MIP6, PMIP4
Abstract: The pre-industrial millennium is among the periods selected by the Paleoclimate Model Intercomparison Project (PMIP) for experiments contributing to the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) and the fourth phase of the PMIP (PMIP4). The past1000 transient simulations serve to investigate the response to (mainly) natural forcing under background conditions not too different from today, and to discriminate between forced and internally generated variability on interannual to centennial timescales. This paper describes the motivation and the experimental set-ups for the PMIP4-CMIP6 past1000 simulations, and discusses the forcing agents orbital, solar, volcanic, and land use/land cover changes, and variations in greenhouse gas concentrations. The past1000 simulations covering the pre-industrial millennium from 850 Common Era (CE) to 1849 CE have to be complemented by historical simulations (1850 to 2014 CE) following the CMIP6 protocol. The external forcings for the past1000 experiments have been adapted to provide a seamless transition across these time periods. Protocols for the past1000 simulations have been divided into three tiers. A default forcing data set has been defined for the Tier 1 (the CMIP6 past1000) experiment. However, the PMIP community has maintained the flexibility to conduct coordinated sensitivity experiments to explore uncertainty in forcing reconstructions as well as parameter uncertainty in dedicated Tier 2 simulations. Additional experiments (Tier 3) are defined to foster collaborative model experiments focusing on the early instrumental period and to extend the temporal range and the scope of the simulations. This paper outlines current and future research foci and common analyses for collaborative work between the PMIP and the observational communities (reconstructions, instrumental data)., Geoscientific Model Development, 10 (11), ISSN:1991-9603, ISSN:1991-959X
Published: 2017

24. Global carbon budget 2013

Author: Bronte Tilbrook, Glen P. Peters, Andy Wiltshire, Abdirahman M Omar, Almut Arneth, A. Arvanitis, Joanna Isobel House, Richard A. Houghton, Pieter P. Tans, Benjamin D. Stocker, Josep G. Canadell, Nathalie Lefèvre, S. van Heuven, C. Le Quéré, Steve D Jones, Christian Rödenbeck, Pierre Regnier, R. Moriarty, T. Ono, Robbie M. Andrew, Stephen Sitch, Geun-Ha Park, Louise Chini, Atul K. Jain, Philippe Ciais, Fabienne Maignan, Anna B. Harper, Etsushi Kato, S. Saito, Benjamin Pfeil, Jörg Schwinger, Gregg Marland, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Michael R. Raupach, Ian Harris, Laurent Bopp, Thomas A. Boden, Arne Körtzinger, Sönke Zaehle, Nicolas Viovy, Dorothee C. E. Bakker, Pierre Friedlingstein, Rik Wanninkhof, Benjamin Poulter, Taro Takahashi, Joachim Segschneider, Scott C. Doney, Ralph F. Keeling, Robert J. Andres, Charles D. Koven, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of East Anglia [Norwich] (UEA), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), University of Exeter, Appalachian State University, University, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research and School of Environmental Sciences, College of Life and Environmental Sciences [Exeter], NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung - Atmosphärische Umweltforschung (IMK-IFU), Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT), Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign [Urbana], University of Illinois System, The Institute of Applied Energy (IAE), PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Leibniz-Institut für Meereswissenschaften (IFM-GEOMAR), Helmholtz Zentrum für Umweltforschung = Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (UFZ), Austral, Boréal et Carbone (ABC), Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Modélisation des Surfaces et Interfaces Continentales (MOSAIC), Netherlands Institute for Radio Astronomy (ASTRON), National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology (AIST), Chemistry Department [Massachusetts Institute of Technology], Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Université libre de Bruxelles (ULB), Max-Planck-Institut für Biogeochemie (MPI-BGC), Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research (BCCR), Department of Biological Sciences [Bergen] (BIO / UiB), University of Bergen (UiB)-University of Bergen (UiB), Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI-M), Max-Planck-Gesellschaft, Centre for Isotope Research [Groningen] (CIO), University of Groningen [Groningen], NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory (AOML), Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Change (MOHC), United Kingdom Met Office [Exeter], Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry (MPI-BGC), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), and Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636))
Subjects: 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, 530 Physics, Mathematics and natural scienses: 400::Geosciences: 450::Meteorology: 453 [VDP], MODELS, Matematikk og naturvitenskap: 400::Geofag: 450::Oseanografi: 452 [VDP], Earth and Planetary Sciences(all), [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-GEO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph], 010501 environmental sciences, Atmospheric sciences, 7. Clean energy, 01 natural sciences, 12. Responsible consumption, Carbon cycle, Atmosphere, Matematikk og naturvitenskap: 400::Geofag: 450::Meteorologi: 453 [VDP], carbon budget, chemistry.chemical_compound, METHANE, carbon sinks, Mathematics and natural scienses: 400::Geosciences: 450::Oceanography: 452 [VDP], Deforestation, CARBON DIOXIDE, ddc:550, Climate change, fossil fuels, Energy statistics, Land use change, lcsh:Environmental sciences, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, lcsh:GE1-350, lcsh:QE1-996.5, Biosphere, Généralités, Vegetation, 15. Life on land, lcsh:Geology, Earth sciences, chemistry, 13. Climate action, Carbon dioxide, General Earth and Planetary Sciences, Environmental science, Sink (computing)
Abstract: Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and a methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates, consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil-fuel combustion and cement production (EFF) are based on energy statistics, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (G ATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The mean ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in SOCEAN is evaluated for the first time in this budget with data products based on surveys of ocean CO2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of independent dynamic global vegetation models forced by observed climate, CO2 and land cover change (some including nitrogen-carbon interactions). All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ ,reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. For the last decade available (2003-2012), EFF was 8.6±0.4 GtC yr-1, ELUC 0.9±0.5 GtC yr-1, GATM 4.3±0.1 GtC yr-1, SOCEAN 2.5±0.5 GtC yr -1, and SLAND 2.8±0.8 GtC yr-1. For year 2012 alone, EFF grew to 9.7±0.5 GtC yr-1, 2.2% above 2011, reflecting a continued growing trend in these emissions, G ATM was 5.1±0.2 GtC yr-1, SOCEAN was 2.9±0.5 GtC yr-1, and assuming an ELUC of 1.0±0.5 GtC yr-1 (based on the 2001-2010 average), S LAND was 2.7±0.9 GtC yr-1. GATM was high in 2012 compared to the 2003-2012 average, almost entirely reflecting the high EFF. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 392.52±0.10 ppm averaged over 2012. We estimate that EFF will increase by 2.1% (1.1- 3.1 %) to 9.9±0.5 GtC in 2013, 61% above emissions in 1990, based on projections of world gross domestic product and recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy.With this projection, cumulative emissions ofCO2 will reach about 535±55 GtC for 1870-2013, about 70% from EFF (390±20 GtC) and 30% from ELUC (145±50 GtC). This paper also documents any changes in the methods and data sets used in this new carbon budget from previous budgets (Le Quéré et al. 2013). All observations presented here can be downloaded from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (doi:10.3334/CDIAC/GCP-2013-V2.3). © 2014 Author(s) CC Attribution 3.0 License., 0, SCOPUS: ar.j, info:eu-repo/semantics/published
Published: 2014
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25. Global Carbon Budget 2016

Author: Ian Harris, Richard A. Houghton, Josep G. Canadell, Pieter P. Tans, Abdirahman M Omar, Thomas A. Boden, Leticia Barbero, Arne Körtzinger, Adrienne J. Sutton, Guido R. van der Werf, Frank J. Millero, Benjamin D. Stocker, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, Louise Chini, Denis Pierrot, Scott C. Doney, Shin-Ichiro Nakaoka, Andrew Lenton, Kim I. Currie, Nicolas Viovy, Pedro M. S. Monteiro, Sönke Zaehle, Oliver Andrews, Philippe Ciais, Peter Landschützer, Ute Schuster, Stephen Sitch, Pierre Friedlingstein, Vanessa Haverd, Simone R. Alin, Judith Hauck, Christian Rödenbeck, Atul K. Jain, Nathalie Lefèvre, Ingrid T. van der Laan-Luijkx, Joe R. Melton, Mario Hoppema, Benjamin Poulter, Frédéric Chevallier, Taro Takahashi, Hanqin Tian, Thanos Gkritzalis, Tsuneo Ono, Etsushi Kato, Andrew C. Manning, Roland Séférian, Danica Lombardozzi, Jörg Schwinger, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, David R. Munro, Corinne Le Quéré, Anthony P. Walker, Laurent Bopp, Peter Anthoni, Bronte Tilbrook, Glen P. Peters, Andy Wiltshire, Sebastian Lienert, Are Olsen, Ralph F. Keeling, Nicolas Metzl, Robbie M. Andrew, Christine Delire, Joe Salisbury, Kees Klein Goldewijk, K. O'Brien, Ingunn Skjelvan, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of East Anglia [Norwich] (UEA), Center for International Climate and Environmental Research [Oslo] (CICERO), University of Oslo (UiO), Global Carbon Project (GCP), CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research (CSIRO-MAR), Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation [Canberra] (CSIRO)-Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation [Canberra] (CSIRO), College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Centre for Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences [Norwich] (COAS), School of Environmental Sciences [Norwich], University of East Anglia [Norwich] (UEA)-University of East Anglia [Norwich] (UEA), Oak Ridge National Laboratory [Oak Ridge] (ORNL), UT-Battelle, LLC, NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI), University of California [San Diego] (UC San Diego), University of California, NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory [Seattle] (PMEL), Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory (AOML), Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies (CIMAS), Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science (RSMAS), University of Miami [Coral Gables]-University of Miami [Coral Gables], Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Modélisation INVerse pour les mesures atmosphériques et SATellitaires (SATINV), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland [College Park], University of Maryland System-University of Maryland System, ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research [Wellington] (NIWA), Groupe d'étude de l'atmosphère météorologique (CNRM-GAME), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Météo France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences [Exeter] (EMPS), University of Exeter, Flanders Marine Institute, VLIZ, Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, Alfred-Wegener-Institut, Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung (AWI), Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), Oceans and Atmosphere Flagship, PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, STMicroelectronics [Crolles] (ST-CROLLES), The Institute of Applied Energy (IAE), Christian-Albrechts-Universität zu Kiel (CAU), Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research [Kiel] (GEOMAR), Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie (MPI-M), Max-Planck-Gesellschaft, Austral, Boréal et Carbone (ABC), Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Oceans and Atmosphere Flagship (CSIRO), CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere Flagship, Équipe CO2 (E-CO2), Department of Ocean Sciences, University of Miami [Coral Gables], Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering [Berkeley] (CEE), University of California [Berkeley], University of California-University of California, University of Wisconsin Whitewater, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI-M), National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), NASA Langley Research Center [Hampton] (LaRC), National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology (AIST), Entrepôts, Représentation et Ingénierie des Connaissances (ERIC), Université Lumière - Lyon 2 (UL2)-Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 (UCBL), Université de Lyon-Université de Lyon, Max-Planck-Institut, Ocean Process Analysis Laboratory (OPAL), University of New Hampshire (UNH), Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research (BCCR), Department of Biological Sciences [Bergen] (BIO / UiB), University of Bergen (UiB)-University of Bergen (UiB), Imperial College London, Scripps Institution of Oceanography (SIO), Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean (JISAO), University of Washington [Seattle], Institute of Space and Astronautical Science (ISAS), Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency [Sagamihara] (JAXA), Shandong Agricultural University (SDAU), Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation [Canberra] (CSIRO), Wageningen University and Research [Wageningen] (WUR), Faculty of Earth and Life Sciences [Amsterdam] (FALW), Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam [Amsterdam] (VU), Modélisation des Surfaces et Interfaces Continentales (MOSAIC), School of Earth and Environment [Leeds] (SEE), University of Leeds, Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Change (MOHC), United Kingdom Met Office [Exeter], Biogeochemical Systems Department [Jena], Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry (MPI-BGC), Max-Planck-Gesellschaft-Max-Planck-Gesellschaft, Environmental Sciences, Faculty of Earth and Life Sciences, Earth and Climate, University of California (UC), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), University of California [Berkeley] (UC Berkeley), University of California (UC)-University of California (UC), and Scripps Institution of Oceanography (SIO - UC San Diego)
Subjects: Meteorologie en Luchtkwaliteit, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Meteorology and Air Quality, 530 Physics, Climate change, [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-GEO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph], 02 engineering and technology, 010501 environmental sciences, Atmospheric sciences, 01 natural sciences, 7. Clean energy, Carbon cycle, Latitude, SDG 17 - Partnerships for the Goals, Deforestation, ddc:550, SDG 13 - Climate Action, Life Science, lcsh:Environmental sciences, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, lcsh:GE1-350, WIMEK, business.industry, Fossil fuel, lcsh:QE1-996.5, Biosphere, Vegetation, 15. Life on land, 021001 nanoscience & nanotechnology, lcsh:Geology, Earth sciences, 13. Climate action, General Earth and Planetary Sciences, Environmental science, Sink (computing), 0210 nano-technology, business
Abstract: Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere – the “global carbon budget” – is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics, and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates and consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, respectively, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The mean ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in SOCEAN is evaluated with data products based on surveys of ocean CO2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of independent dynamic global vegetation models. We compare the mean land and ocean fluxes and their variability to estimates from three atmospheric inverse methods for three broad latitude bands. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ, reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. For the last decade available (2006–2015), EFF was 9.3 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, ELUC 1.0 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, GATM 4.5 ± 0.1 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN 2.6 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND 3.1 ± 0.9 GtC yr−1. For year 2015 alone, the growth in EFF was approximately zero and emissions remained at 9.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, showing a slowdown in growth of these emissions compared to the average growth of 1.8 % yr−1 that took place during 2006–2015. Also, for 2015, ELUC was 1.3 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, GATM was 6.3 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN was 3.0 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 1.9 ± 0.9 GtC yr−1. GATM was higher in 2015 compared to the past decade (2006–2015), reflecting a smaller SLAND for that year. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 399.4 ± 0.1 ppm averaged over 2015. For 2016, preliminary data indicate the continuation of low growth in EFF with +0.2 % (range of −1.0 to +1.8 %) based on national emissions projections for China and USA, and projections of gross domestic product corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy for the rest of the world. In spite of the low growth of EFF in 2016, the growth rate in atmospheric CO2 concentration is expected to be relatively high because of the persistence of the smaller residual terrestrial sink (SLAND) in response to El Niño conditions of 2015–2016. From this projection of EFF and assumed constant ELUC for 2016, cumulative emissions of CO2 will reach 565 ± 55 GtC (2075 ± 205 GtCO2) for 1870–2016, about 75 % from EFF and 25 % from ELUC. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new carbon budget compared with previous publications of this data set (Le Quéré et al., 2015b, a, 2014, 2013). All observations presented here can be downloaded from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (doi:10.3334/CDIAC/GCP_2016).
Published: 2016

26. First assessment of effects of global change on threatened spiders: Potential impacts on Dolomedes plantarius (Clerck) and its conservation plans

Author: Alain Canard, Boris Leroy, Frédéric Ysnel, Mauro Paschetta, Michel Bakkenes, Marco Isaia, Biologie des Organismes et Ecosystèmes Aquatiques (BOREA), Université de Caen Normandie (UNICAEN), Normandie Université (NU)-Normandie Université (NU)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université des Antilles (UA), Università degli studi di Torino (UNITO), PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, and Università degli studi di Torino = University of Turin (UNITO)
Subjects: 0106 biological sciences, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Species distribution, Population, Biodiversity, translocation, Biology, 010603 evolutionary biology, 01 natural sciences, Conservation biogeography, Dolomedes, Effects of global warming, Vulnerable species, 14. Life underwater, species distribution models, education, reintroduction, Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, Nature and Landscape Conservation, reinforcement, education.field_of_study, Ecology, vulnerable species, Global change, 15. Life on land, biology.organism_classification, [SDV.BA.ZI]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Animal biology/Invertebrate Zoology, 13. Climate action, Threatened species, [SDV.EE.BIO]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology, environment/Bioclimatology, [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology, Species distribution models, Translocation, Reintroduction, Reinforcement
Abstract: International audience; Our view of the future of biodiversity remains limited to a restricted number of taxa, and some taxa, such as spiders, have been largely omitted. Here we provide the first assessment of effects of global change on threatened spiders using a red-listed vulnerable spider, Dolomedes plantarius (Clerck, 1757) as an example. We aim at applying this assessment to assist two conservation actions for this species, including a translocation program. We compiled all the available data on D. plantarius and modelled its current and future distributions on the basis of both climate and land cover variables at a fine resolution (0.1°). We applied an ensemble modelling procedure on the basi s of eight modelling techniques, and forecasted the future distribution ranges for two emission scenarios (A1 and B2) and three general circulati on models. Despite unce rtainty regarding the predictions, the models performed very well, and consensus emerged for models and climate scenarios to predict significant negative effects on the current distribution range of this species. In the UK, the translocated population and one out of three natural populations were predicted to remain in highly suitable environmental areas. In France, one out of six locations was predicted to remain suitable in the future. Given the phylogeographic background of this species, the predicted effects of environmental changes should be considered seriously, especially for the long-term viability of conservation programs. Our study demonstrated the importance and feasibility of studying the effects of climate change by the means of species distribution models on taxa with limited available data, such as spiders.
Published: 2013

27. The global carbon budget 1959-2011

Author: Philippe Ciais, Robert J. Andres, Glen P. Peters, Sönke Zaehle, Pierre Friedlingstein, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Scott C. Doney, Chris Huntingford, Benjamin Poulter, Mark R. Lomas, Joanna Isobel House, Michael R. Raupach, Anders Ahlström, Etsushi Kato, Jörg Schwinger, Gregg Marland, Tom Boden, Laurent Bopp, G. R. van der Werf, Atul K. Jain, Thomas J. Conway, Peter Levy, Clare Enright, Robbie M. Andrew, Nicolas Viovy, C. Le Quéré, C. Jourdain, Josep G. Canadell, Ralph F. Keeling, Ning Zeng, Stephen Sitch, Samuel Levis, Benjamin D. Stocker, Richard A. Houghton, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of East Anglia [Norwich] (UEA), Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center [Oak Ridge] (CDIAC), U.S. Department of Energy [Washington] (DOE), NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI), Cabot Institute, University of Bristol [Bristol], Appalachian State University, University of North Carolina System (UNC), Center for International Climate and Environmental Research [Oslo] (CICERO), University of Oslo (UiO), Faculty of Earth and Life Sciences [Amsterdam] (FALW), Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam [Amsterdam] (VU), Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science [Lund], Lund University [Lund], Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Global Carbon Project (GCP), CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research (CSIRO-MAR), Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation [Canberra] (CSIRO)-Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation [Canberra] (CSIRO), ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Department of Marine Chemistry and Geochemistry (WHOI), College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences [Exeter] (EMPS), University of Exeter, Centre for Ecology and Hydrology [Wallingford] (CEH), Natural Environment Research Council (NERC), University of Illinois [Chicago] (UIC), University of Illinois System, National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), The Scripps Research Institute [La Jolla, San Diego], PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Utrecht University [Utrecht], National Center for Atmospheric Research [Boulder] (NCAR), Centre for Terrestrial Carbon Dynamics: National Centre for Earth Observation (CTCD), University of Sheffield [Sheffield], University of Bergen (UiB), Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research (BCCR), Department of Biological Sciences [Bergen] (BIO / UiB), University of Bergen (UiB)-University of Bergen (UiB), College of Life and Environmental Sciences [Exeter], Climate and Environmental Physics [Bern] (CEP), Physikalisches Institut [Bern], Universität Bern [Bern] (UNIBE)-Universität Bern [Bern] (UNIBE), Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research (OCCR), University of Bern, Modélisation des Surfaces et Interfaces Continentales (MOSAIC), Max-Planck-Institut für Biogeochemie (MPI-BGC), Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science [College Park] (AOSC), University of Maryland [College Park], University of Maryland System-University of Maryland System, European Project: 283080,EC:FP7:ENV,FP7-ENV-2011,GEOCARBON(2011), European Project: 226520,EC:FP7:ENV,FP7-ENV-2008-1,COMBINE(2009), European Project: 264879,EC:FP7:ENV,FP7-ENV-2010,CARBOCHANGE(2011), Tectonics, Earth and Climate, Theoretical Chemistry, Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), The Scripps Research Institute [La Jolla], University of California [San Diego] (UC San Diego), University of California-University of California, and Universität Bern [Bern]-Universität Bern [Bern]
Subjects: 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, 010501 environmental sciences, 01 natural sciences, 7. Clean energy, chemistry.chemical_compound, SDG 13 - Climate Action, Data and Information, Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences, Land use, land-use change and forestry, Geosciences, Multidisciplinary, DIOXIDE EMISSIONS, lcsh:Environmental sciences, lcsh:GE1-350, [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, lcsh:QE1-996.5, Biosphere, Geology, LAND-USE CHANGE, COVER CHANGE, Climatology, Carbon dioxide, Physical Sciences, FIRE EMISSIONS, VEGETATION DYNAMICS, 530 Physics, Mathematics and natural scienses: 400::Geosciences: 450::Meteorology: 453 [VDP], Climate change, Land cover, INTERNATIONAL-TRADE, Ecology and Environment, Atmospheric Sciences, Carbon cycle, Matematikk og naturvitenskap: 400::Geofag: 450::Meteorologi: 453 [VDP], Meteorology and Climatology, Deforestation, ATMOSPHERIC CO2, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, Science & Technology, business.industry, Fossil fuel, 15. Life on land, Marine Sciences, MODEL, CLIMATE, lcsh:Geology, chemistry, 13. Climate action, CO2 EMISSIONS, General Earth and Planetary Sciences, Environmental science, business
Abstract: Accurate assessments of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the climate policy process, and project future climate change. Present-day analysis requires the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. Here we describe datasets and a methodology developed by the global carbon cycle science community to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates, consistency within and among components, and methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production (EFF) are based on energy statistics, while emissions from Land-Use Change (ELUC), including deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land cover change data, fire activity in regions undergoing deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the concentration. The mean ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. Finally, the global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms. For the last decade available (2002–2011), EFF was 8.3 &pm; 0.4 PgC yr−1, ELUC 1.0 &pm; 0.5 PgC yr−1, GATM 4.3 &pm; 0.1PgC yr−1, SOCEAN 2.5 &pm; 0.5 PgC yr−1, and SLAND 2.6 &pm; 0.8 PgC yr−1. For year 2011 alone, EFF was 9.5 &pm; 0.5 PgC yr−1, 3.0 percent above 2010, reflecting a continued trend in these emissions; ELUC was 0.9 &pm; 0.5 PgC yr−1, approximately constant throughout the decade; GATM was 3.6 &pm; 0.2 PgC yr−1, SOCEAN was 2.7 &pm; 0.5 PgC yr−1, and SLAND was 4.1 &pm; 0.9 PgC yr−1. GATM was low in 2011 compared to the 2002–2011 average because of a high uptake by the land probably in response to natural climate variability associated to La Niña conditions in the Pacific Ocean. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 391.31 &pm; 0.13 ppm at the end of year 2011. We estimate that EFF will have increased by 2.6% (1.9–3.5%) in 2012 based on projections of gross world product and recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy. All uncertainties are reported as &pm;1 sigma (68% confidence assuming Gaussian error distributions that the real value lies within the given interval), reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. This paper is intended to provide a baseline to keep track of annual carbon budgets in the future. All data presented here can be downloaded from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (doi:10.3334/CDIAC/GCP_V2013).
Published: 2013

28. Nitrogen use in the global food system: past trends and future trajectories of agronomic performance, pollution, trade, and dietary demand

Author: Josette Garnier, Nathaniel D. Mueller, Gilles Billen, Lex Bouwman, James S. Gerber, Eduardo Velázquez, Luis Lassaletta, Bio-, hydro-, and environmental geochemistry, Geochemistry, PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Milieux Environnementaux, Transferts et Interactions dans les hydrosystèmes et les Sols (METIS), Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-École Pratique des Hautes Études (EPHE), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Utrecht University [Utrecht], Helmholtz Zentrum für Umweltforschung = Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (UFZ), University of Magallanes (UMAG), Harvard University, University of Minnesota [Twin Cities] (UMN), University of Minnesota System, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École pratique des hautes études (EPHE), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC), and Harvard University [Cambridge]
Subjects: Pollution, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, media_common.quotation_subject, 010501 environmental sciences, 01 natural sciences, Agricultural economics, 12. Responsible consumption, Bioenergy, Per capita, China, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, General Environmental Science, media_common, 2. Zero hunger, [SDV.EE]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology, environment, Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment, business.industry, Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health, food and beverages, 13. Climate action, Sustainability, [SDE]Environmental Sciences, Food systems, Environmental science, Livestock, business, Cropping
Abstract: International audience; Nitrogen (N) limits crop and grass production, and it is an essential component of dietary proteins. However, N is mobile in the soil-plant system and can be lost to the environment. Estimates of N flows provide a critical tool for understanding and improving the sustainability and equity of the global food system. This letter describes an integrated analysis of changes in N in human diets, N use efficiency (NUE) of cropping and livestock systems, N pollution and N in traded food and feed products for 12 world regions for the period 1960–2050. The largest absolute change in consumption of animal proteins during the period 1960–2009 is seen in China, while the largest share of animal protein per capita is currently observed in North America, Europe and Oceania. Due to the substantial growth of the livestock sector, about three quarters of contemporary global crop production (expressed in protein and including fodder crops and bioenergy byproducts) is allocated to livestock. Trends and levels of NUE and N surpluses in crop production are also diverse, as some regions show soil N depletion (developing regions, e.g. Africa), improving efficiency (industrialized regions, e.g. USA and Europe) and excessive N use (e.g. China, India). Global trade between the 12 regions has increased by a factor of 7.5 for vegetable proteins and by a factor of 10 for animal proteins. The scenarios for 2050 demonstrate that it would be possible to feed the global population in 2050 with moderate animal protein consumption but with much less N pollution, and less international trade than today. In such a scenario, optimal allocation of N inputs among regions to maximize NUE would further decrease pollution, but would require increased levels of N trade comparable to those in a BAU scenario.
Published: 2016

29. Simulating the Earth system response to negative emissions

Author: Jason Lowe, Philippe Ciais, J. Milne, Robert B. Jackson, Pierre Friedlingstein, C. D. Jones, Asbjørn Torvanger, Elmar Kriegler, Matthias Jonas, Pete Smith, D.P. van Vuuren, Gyami Shrestha, Emma Littleton, Annette Cowie, Glen P. Peters, Joeri Rogelj, Josep G. Canadell, Andy Wiltshire, Steven J. Davis, Thomas Gasser, Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Change (MOHC), United Kingdom Met Office [Exeter], Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Department of Earth System Science [Irvine] (ESS), University of California [Irvine] (UC Irvine), University of California (UC)-University of California (UC), College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences [Exeter] (EMPS), University of Exeter, Center for International Climate and Environmental Research [Oslo] (CICERO), University of Oslo (UiO), International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [Laxenburg] (IIASA), PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, CSIRO Division of Information Technology (CSIRO DIT), Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation [Canberra] (CSIRO), New South Wales Department of Primary Industries (NSW DPI), Department of Earth System Science [Stanford] (ESS), Stanford EARTH, Stanford University-Stanford University, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), University of East Anglia [Norwich] (UEA), Stanford University, US Global Change Research Program, University of Aberdeen, European Project: 641816,H2020,H2020-SC5-2014-two-stage,CRESCENDO(2015), European Project: 610028,EC:FP7:ERC,ERC-2013-SyG,IMBALANCE-P(2014), Environmental Sciences, Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris-Saclay-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris-Saclay-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris-Saclay-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement (CIRED), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-École des hautes études en sciences sociales (EHESS)-AgroParisTech-Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad), Columbia University Earth Institute, Columbia University [New York], Institut de Chimie de Clermont-Ferrand (ICCF), Université Blaise Pascal - Clermont-Ferrand 2 (UBP)-Sigma CLERMONT (Sigma CLERMONT)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Met Office Hadley Centre (MOHC), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), University of California [Irvine] (UCI), and University of California-University of California
Subjects: 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Carbon dioxide removal, UNCERTAINTY, Low-carbon economy, 010501 environmental sciences, 01 natural sciences, 7. Clean energy, REMOVAL, Climate, Carbon cycle, Earth system, Negative emissions, Mitigation scenarios, Environmental Science(all), 11. Sustainability, Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS, General Environmental Science, [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, Carbon sink, mitigation scenarios, negative emissions, Physical Sciences, CO2, Public Health, Life Sciences & Biomedicine, Meteorology, chemistry.chemical_element, Environmental Sciences & Ecology, carbon cycle, Renewable Energy, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, climate, carbon dioxide removal, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, Science & Technology, Sustainability and the Environment, business.industry, Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment, Fossil fuel, Environmental and Occupational Health, Environmental engineering, Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health, earth system, [SDE.ES]Environmental Sciences/Environmental and Society, Earth system science, CLIMATE, Climate change mitigation, chemistry, 13. Climate action, Environmental science, business, Carbon, Environmental Sciences
Abstract: Natural carbon sinks currently absorb approximately half of the anthropogenic CO2 emitted by fossil fuel burning, cement production and land-use change. However, this airborne fraction may change in the future depending on the emissions scenario. An important issue in developing carbon budgets to achieve climate stabilisation targets is the behaviour of natural carbon sinks, particularly under low emissions mitigation scenarios as required to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement. A key requirement for low carbon pathways is to quantify the effectiveness of negative emissions technologies which will be strongly affected by carbon cycle feedbacks. Here we find that Earth system models suggest significant weakening, even potential reversal, of the ocean and land sinks under future low emission scenarios. For the RCP2.6 concentration pathway, models project land and ocean sinks to weaken to 0.8 ± 0.9 and 1.1 ± 0.3 GtC yr−1 respectively for the second half of the 21st century and to −0.4 ± 0.4 and 0.1 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1 respectively for the second half of the 23rd century. Weakening of natural carbon sinks will hinder the effectiveness of negative emissions technologies and therefore increase their required deployment to achieve a given climate stabilisation target. We introduce a new metric, the perturbation airborne fraction, to measure and assess the effectiveness of negative emissions. ISSN:1748-9326 ISSN:1748-9318
Published: 2016

30. Port regionalisation from a relational perspective: the rise of Venlo as dutch international logistics hub

Author: Raimbault, Nicolas, JACOBS, Wouter, VAN DONGEN, Frank, Systèmes Productifs, Logistique, Organisation des Transports et Travail (IFSTTAR/AME/SPLOTT), Institut Français des Sciences et Technologies des Transports, de l'Aménagement et des Réseaux (IFSTTAR)-Communauté Université Paris-Est, Erasmus University Rotterdam, and PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
Subjects: PORT REGIONALISATION, LOGISTIQUE, GREENPORT VENLO, RELATIONAL APPROACH, [SHS.GESTION]Humanities and Social Sciences/Business administration, [SDV.SA.AEP]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Agricultural sciences/Agriculture, economy and politics, PAYS BAS
Abstract: The rise of global supply chain systems and geographical dispersion of related inland logistics centres has led to a new phase in the evolution of port systems, referred to as port regionalisation. While this process largely results from the decisions of shippers and logistics providers, the scope of public policy can also shape it. This includes the strategic capacity of stakeholders to couple not only locally available assets with the needs of global flows, but also to provide meaning through the constitution of symbols, frames and discourses. We propose the application of a relational perspective to port regionalisation, which allows us to analyse how various actors engage strategically in actor-networks and coalitions across scales to stimulate growth based on logistics. This is accomplished by presenting the rise of Venlo in the Netherlands as an inland logistics hub within the corridor of the port of Rotterdam.
Published: 2016

31. Biophysical and economic limits to negative CO2 emissions

Author: Josep G. Canadell, J. Milne, Pete Smith, Robbie M. Andrew, Mathis Rogner, José Roberto Moreira, David L. McCollum, Elmar Kriegler, Cho Yongsung, Volker Krey, Wolfgang K. Heidug, Ayyoob Sharifi, Florian Kraxner, Edward S. Rubin, Robert B. Jackson, Annette Cowie, Philippe Ciais, Jae Edmonds, Asbjørn Torvanger, Steven J. Davis, Nebojsa Nakicenovic, Felix Creutzig, Jan C. Minx, Gyami Shrestha, Matthias Jonas, Michael Obersteiner, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Thomas Gasser, J. Lowe, Etsushi Kato, Yoshiki Yamagata, Arnulf Grubler, Sabine Fuss, Anand Patwardhan, Benoit Gabrielle, Glen P. Peters, Joeri Rogelj, Emma Littleton, Chris D. Jones, Pierre Friedlingstein, University of Aberdeen, University of California [Irvine] (UCI), University of California, Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change (MCC), Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Technische Universität Berlin (TU), Hertie School of Governance, Ecologie fonctionnelle et écotoxicologie des agroécosystèmes (ECOSYS), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-AgroParisTech, The Institute of Applied Energy (IAE), Department of Earth System Science [Stanford] (ESS), Stanford EARTH, Stanford University-Stanford University, University of New England (UNE), Utrecht University [Utrecht], PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [Laxenburg] (IIASA), Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology [Zürich] (ETH Zürich), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Stanford University, Oceans and Atmosphere Research, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation [Canberra] (CSIRO), Center for International Climate and Environmental Research [Oslo] (CICERO), University of Oslo (UiO), US Global Change Research Program, University of Exeter, centre international de recherche sur l'environnement et le développement (CIRED), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-École des hautes études en sciences sociales (EHESS)-AgroParisTech-Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad), King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center, Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Change (MOHC), United Kingdom Met Office [Exeter], University of East Anglia [Norwich] (UEA), University of São Paulo (USP), University of Maryland [College Park], University of Maryland System, Carnegie Mellon University [Pittsburgh] (CMU), Global Carbon Project — Tsukuba International Office, National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Pacific Northwest National Laboratory Joint Global Change Research Institute, Korea University [Seoul], Technische Universität Berlin (TUB), Department of Environmental Earth System Science [Stanford] (EESS), Stanford University [Stanford], Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zürich [Zürich] (ETH Zürich), Université Paris-Saclay-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement (CIRED), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad)-École des hautes études en sciences sociales (EHESS)-AgroParisTech, Met Office Hadley Centre (MOHC), University of California [Irvine] (UC Irvine), University of California (UC), Technical University of Berlin / Technische Universität Berlin (TU), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad)-École des hautes études en sciences sociales (EHESS)-AgroParisTech-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Universidade de São Paulo = University of São Paulo (USP), University of California [Irvine] ( UCI ), Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change, Technical University of Berlin, Technical University Berlin, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research ( PIK ), Ecologie fonctionnelle et écotoxicologie des agroécosystèmes ( ECOSYS ), AgroParisTech-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique ( INRA ), Department of Environmental Earth System Science [Stanford] ( EESS ), University of New England ( UNE ), International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [Laxenburg] ( IIASA ), Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zürich ( ETH Zürich ), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] ( LSCE ), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines ( UVSQ ) -Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives ( CEA ) -Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique ( CNRS ), Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Center for International Climate and Environmental Research [Oslo] ( CICERO ), Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement ( CIRED ), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique ( CNRS ) -École des Ponts ParisTech ( ENPC ) -AgroParisTech-École des hautes études en sciences sociales ( EHESS ) -Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement ( CIRAD ), Met Office Hadley Centre ( MOHC ), University of East Anglia [Norwich] ( UEA ), University of São Paulo ( USP ), Carnegie Mellon University [Pittsburgh] ( CMU ), National Institute for Environmental Studies ( NIES ), and Environmental Sciences
Subjects: Hydrology, Resource (biology), [ SDV ] Life Sciences [q-bio], Natural resource economics, business.industry, 020209 energy, [SDV]Life Sciences [q-bio], Global change, 02 engineering and technology, Environmental Science (miscellaneous), 7. Clean energy, Carbon cycle, Renewable energy, Earth system science, 13. Climate action, Greenhouse gas, Economic cost, Taverne, 11. Sustainability, Sustainability, 0202 electrical engineering, electronic engineering, information engineering, Environmental science, business, Social Sciences (miscellaneous)
Abstract: To have a >50% chance of limiting warming below 2 degrees C, most recent scenarios from integrated assessment models (IAMs) require large-scale deployment of negative emissions technologies (NETs). These are technologies that result in the net removal of greenhouse gases from the atmosphere. We quantify potential global impacts of the different NETs on various factors (such as land, greenhouse gas emissions, water, albedo, nutrients and energy) to determine the biophysical limits to, and economic costs of, their wiespread application. Resource implications vary between technologies and need to be satisfactorily addressed if NETs are to have a significant role in achieving climate goals.
Published: 2016

32. The need for and use of socio-economic scenarios for climate change analysis: A new approach based on shared socio-economic pathways

Author: Richard H. Moss, Thomas J. Wilbanks, Robert J. Lempert, Stephane Hallegatte, Brian C. O'Neill, Elmar Kriegler, Tom Kram, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), National Center for Atmospheric Research [Boulder] (NCAR), centre international de recherche sur l'environnement et le développement (CIRED), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-École des hautes études en sciences sociales (EHESS)-AgroParisTech-Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad), PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, RAND Corp., 1776 Main Street, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138, affiliation inconnue, Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratary, Univ. of Maryland, 5825 University Research Court, Suite 3500, College Park, MD 20740, Oak Ridge National Laboratory [Oak Ridge] (ORNL), and UT-Battelle, LLC
Subjects: Global and Planetary Change, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Ecology, business.industry, Computer science, Geography, Planning and Development, Global warming, Environmental resource management, Vulnerability, Climate change, 010501 environmental sciences, Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law, Environmental economics, 01 natural sciences, Robust decision-making, Identification (information), 13. Climate action, [SDE]Environmental Sciences, Scalability, Set (psychology), business, Adaptation (computer science), 0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Abstract: International audience; Socio-economic scenarios constitute an important tool for exploring the long-term consequences of anthropogenic climate change and available response options. A more consistent use of socio-economic scenarios that would allow an integrated perspective on mitigation, adaptation and residual climate impacts remains a major challenge. We assert that the identification of a set of global narratives and socio-economic pathways offering scalability to different regional contexts, a reasonable coverage of key socio-economic dimensions and relevant futures, and a sophisticated approach to separating climate policy from counter-factual " no policy" scenarios would be an important step toward meeting this challenge. To this end, we introduce the concept of " shared socio-economic (reference) pathways" Sufficient coverage of the relevant socio-economic dimensions may be achieved by locating the pathways along the dimensions of challenges to mitigation and to adaptation. The pathways should be specified in an iterative manner and with close collaboration between integrated assessment modelers and impact, adaptation and vulnerability researchers to assure coverage of key dimensions, sufficient scalability and widespread adoption. They can be used not only as inputs to analyses, but also to collect the results of different climate change analyses in a matrix defined by two dimensions: climate exposure as characterized by a radiative forcing or temperature level and socio-economic development as classified by the pathways. For some applications, socio-economic pathways may have to be augmented by " shared climate policy assumptions" capturing global components of climate policies that some studies may require as inputs. We conclude that the development of shared socio-economic (reference) pathways, and integrated socio-economic scenarios more broadly, is a useful focal point for collaborative efforts between integrated assessment and impact, adaptation and vulnerability researchers. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd.
Published: 2012

33. The Spatial Productivity of Industrial Land

Author: Hans van Amsterdam, Erik Louw, Erwin van der Krabben, OTB Research Institute for Housing and Mobility Studies, Delft University of Technology (TU Delft), Nijmegen School of Management, Radboud university [Nijmegen], and PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
Subjects: Industrial land, General Social Sciences, Social Sciences & Humanities, Sociology, Economic geography, Productivity, [SHS.SCIPO]Humanities and Social Sciences/Political science, Land policy, General Environmental Science
Abstract: Louw E., van der Krabben E. and van Amsterdam H. The spatial productivity of industrial land, Regional Studies. This paper presents a theoretical approach to analysing the concept of spatial productivity and the meaning of land as a production factor in regional science. It presents the results of an empirical study that aims to determine and explain regional differences in the spatial productivity of industrial estates in the Netherlands. It shows that spatial productivity is influenced by urbanization rates, the share of manufacturing employment on industrial estates and land development policy. Louw E., van der Krabben E. and van Amsterdam H. 产业用地的空间生产力，区域研究。本文用理论方法分析区域科学中空间生产力的概念以及土地作为生产要素的意义。本文是一个相关经验研究的结果，该研究旨在明确并解释荷兰产业园区空间生产力的区域差异。结果表明，空间生产力受到城市化率、产业园中制造业就业率以及土地发展政策的影响。产业用地空间效率土地政策产业园 Louw E., van der Krabben E. et van Amsterdam H. La productivite geographique du terrain industriel, Regional Studies. Cet article presente une approche theorique d'analyser la notion de productivite geographique ...
Published: 2012

34. Large uncertainty in carbon uptake potential of land-based climate-change mitigation efforts

Author: Krause, Andreas, Pugh, Thomas A.M., Bayer, Anita D., Li, Wei, Leung, Felix, Bondeau, Alberte, Doelman, Jonathan C., Humpenöder, Florian, Anthoni, Peter, Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon, Ciais, Philippe, Müller, Christoph, Murray-Tortarolo, Guillermo, Olin, Stefan, Popp, Alexander, Sitch, Stephen, Stehfest, Elke, Arneth, Almut, Environmental Sciences, Section Economic Urban Transitions, Environmental Sciences, Section Economic Urban Transitions, Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT), Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences and Birmingham Institute of Forest Research, University of Birmingham [Birmingham], Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), University of Exeter, Institut méditerranéen de biodiversité et d'écologie marine et continentale (IMBE), Avignon Université (AU)-Aix Marseille Université (AMU)-Institut de recherche pour le développement [IRD] : UMR237-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Catedra CONACyT comisionado al Instituto de Investigaciones en Ecosistemas y Sustentabilidad, Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Centre for Ecology and Conservation, College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Falmouth, United Kingdom, Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), College of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, and Exeter Climate Systems, University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom
Subjects: 0106 biological sciences, Crops, Agricultural, Carbon Sequestration, Conservation of Natural Resources, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Climate Change, Land management, Climate change, Forests, Atmospheric sciences, 7. Clean energy, 010603 evolutionary biology, 01 natural sciences, Carbon Cycle, Soil, Deforestation, land-basedmitigation, Environmental Science(all), Carbon capture and storage, BECCS, Environmental Chemistry, Biomass, land‐based mitigation, carbon dioxide removal, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, General Environmental Science, 2. Zero hunger, Global and Planetary Change, Global temperature, Ecology, Uncertainty, Bio-energy with carbon capture and storage, Soil carbon, 15. Life on land, Carbon Dioxide, Carbon, negative emissions, Climate change mitigation, 13. Climate action, [SDE]Environmental Sciences, Environmental science, avoided deforestation and afforestation
Abstract: International audience; Most climate mitigation scenarios involve negative emissions, especially those that aim to limit global temperature increase to 2°C or less. However, the carbon uptake potential in land‐based climate change mitigation efforts is highly uncertain. Here, we address this uncertainty by using two land‐based mitigation scenarios from two land‐use models (IMAGE and MAgPIE) as input to four dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs; LPJ‐GUESS, ORCHIDEE, JULES, LPJmL). Each of the four combinations of land‐use models and mitigation scenarios aimed for a cumulative carbon uptake of ~130 GtC by the end of the century, achieved either via the cultivation of bioenergy crops combined with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) or avoided deforestation and afforestation (ADAFF). Results suggest large uncertainty in simulated future land demand and carbon uptake rates, depending on the assumptions related to land use and land management in the models. Total cumulative carbon uptake in the DGVMs is highly variable across mitigation scenarios, ranging between 19 and 130 GtC by year 2099. Only one out of the 16 combinations of mitigation scenarios and DGVMs achieves an equivalent or higher carbon uptake than achieved in the land‐use models. The large differences in carbon uptake between the DGVMs and their discrepancy against the carbon uptake in IMAGE and MAgPIE are mainly due to different model assumptions regarding bioenergy crop yields and due to the simulation of soil carbon response to land‐use change. Differences between land‐use models and DGVMs regarding forest biomass and the rate of forest regrowth also have an impact, albeit smaller, on the results. Given the low confidence in simulated carbon uptake for a given land‐based mitigation scenario, and that negative emissions simulated by the DGVMs are typically lower than assumed in scenarios consistent with the 2°C target, relying on negative emissions to mitigate climate change is a highly uncertain strategy.
Published: 2018

35. The role of water nitrogen retention in integrated nutrient management: assessment in a large basin using different modelling approaches

Author: Paul Passy, Gilles Billen, Luis Lassaletta, Josette Garnier, Bruna Grizzetti, Fayçal Bouraoui, European Commission - Joint Research Centre [Ispra] (JRC), Milieux Environnementaux, Transferts et Interactions dans les hydrosystèmes et les Sols (METIS), Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-École Pratique des Hautes Études (EPHE), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, and Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-École pratique des hautes études (EPHE)
Subjects: GREEN model, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Drainage basin, Seine river basin, 010501 environmental sciences, Structural basin, 01 natural sciences, nitrogen retention, water management, Ecosystem, Water pollution, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, General Environmental Science, Hydrology, geography, geography.geographical_feature_category, Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment, Nutrient management, Aquatic ecosystem, Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health, 15. Life on land, 6. Clean water, RiverStrahler model, 13. Climate action, Nutrient pollution, [SDE]Environmental Sciences, Environmental science, Water quality, SWAT model, integrated nutrient management
Abstract: International audience; Assessing the removal of nitrogen (temporary and permanent) in large river basins is complex due to the dependency on climate, hydrological and physical characteristics, and ecosystems functioning. Measurements are generally limited in number and do not account for the full integration of all processes contributing to nitrogen retention in the river basin. However, the estimation of nitrogen retention by the ecosystems is crucial to understanding the nitrate water pollution and the N 2 O emissions to the atmosphere, as well as the lag time between the implementation of agri-environmental measures to reduce nitrogen pollution and the improvement of water quality. Models have often been used to understand the dynamics of the river basin system. The objective of this study was to assess nitrogen retention in a large river basin, the Seine basin (∼65 000 km 2 , in France), through the application of three models with different levels of complexity developed for different specific purposes: the GREEN, SWAT and RiverStrahler models. The study analyses the different modelling approaches and compares their estimates of water nitrogen retention over an 11-year period. Then reflexions on the role played by nitrogen retention by aquatic ecosystems in integrated nutrient management are presented. The results of this study are relevant for the understanding of nitrogen retention processes at the large river basin scale and for the analysis of mitigation measure scenarios designed to reduce nitrogen impacts on aquatic ecosystems and climate.
Published: 2015

36. Global carbon budget 2014

Author: Joanna Isobel House, Roland Séférian, Stephen Sitch, Robbie M. Andrew, C. Cosca, Jörg Schwinger, Thomas A. Boden, Truls Johannessen, Michael R. Raupach, Pieter P. Tans, Nicolas Metzl, Jeremy T. Mathis, Ying-Ping Wang, R. Moriarty, G. R. van der Werf, Christian Rödenbeck, Peter Landschützer, Ute Schuster, Benjamin D. Stocker, Benjamin Poulter, Taro Takahashi, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Joachim Segschneider, Philippe Ciais, Almut Arneth, Andrew Lenton, Pierre Friedlingstein, Frédéric Chevallier, Laurent Bopp, C. Le Quéré, Etsushi Kato, Wouter Peters, Atul K. Jain, Camilla S. Landa, T. Ono, Ning Zeng, Charles D. Koven, Ralph F. Keeling, Yann Bozec, Joe Salisbury, Ivan D. Lima, Yukihiro Nojiri, Are Olsen, Steve D Jones, Shushi Peng, Mario Hoppema, Richard A. Houghton, Tobias Steinhoff, Bronte Tilbrook, Glen P. Peters, S. Saito, Benjamin Pfeil, Andy Wiltshire, Adrienne J. Sutton, Louise Chini, Josep G. Canadell, Vassilis Kitidis, Ian Harris, Pierre Regnier, Gregg Marland, Nicolas Viovy, Rik Wanninkhof, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of East Anglia [Norwich] (UEA), Center for International Climate and Environmental Research [Oslo] (CICERO), University of Oslo (UiO), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), College of Life and Environmental Sciences [Exeter], University of Exeter, NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Oak Ridge National Laboratory [Oak Ridge] (ORNL), UT-Battelle, LLC, CHImie Marine (CHIM), Adaptation et diversité en milieu marin (AD2M), Station biologique de Roscoff [Roscoff] (SBR), Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Station biologique de Roscoff [Roscoff] (SBR), Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Global Carbon Project, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland [College Park], University of Maryland System-University of Maryland System, Modélisation INVerse pour les mesures atmosphériques et SATellitaires (SATINV), NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory [Seattle] (PMEL), Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, Alfred-Wegener-Institut, Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung (AWI), Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI), University of Bristol [Bristol], Department of Atmospheric Sciences [Urbana], University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign [Urbana], University of Illinois System-University of Illinois System, Geophysical Institute [Bergen] (GFI / BiU), University of Bergen (UiB), Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research (BCCR), Department of Biological Sciences [Bergen] (BIO / UiB), University of Bergen (UiB)-University of Bergen (UiB), Institute of Applied Energy (IAE), Earth Science Division [LBNL Berkeley] (ESD), Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory [Berkeley] (LBNL), Plymouth Marine Laboratory (PML), Plymouth Marine Laboratory, PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Helmholtz Zentrum für Umweltforschung = Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (UFZ), Institute of Biogeochemistry and Pollutant Dynamics [ETH Zürich] (IBP), Department of Environmental Systems Science [ETH Zürich] (D-USYS), Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology [Zürich] (ETH Zürich)- Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology [Zürich] (ETH Zürich), Oceans and Atmosphere Flagship (CSIRO), CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere Flagship, Appalachian State University, University, Équipe CO2 (E-CO2), Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Institute of Cancer Epidemiology, Danish Cancer Society, National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology (AIST), Swedish Defence Research Agency [Stockholm] (FOI), Meteorology and Air Quality Department [Wageningen] (MAQ), Wageningen University and Research [Wageningen] (WUR), Montana State University (MSU), Australian National University (ANU), Université libre de Bruxelles (ULB), Max-Planck-Institut für Biogeochemie (MPI-BGC), Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), University of New Hampshire (UNH), Météo-France [Paris], Météo France, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI-M), Max-Planck-Gesellschaft, Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research [Kiel] (GEOMAR), Imperial College London, Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research (OCCR), University of Bern, Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean (JISAO), University of Washington [Seattle], Department of Mechanical Science and Engineering, Nagoya University, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation [Canberra] (CSIRO), Faculty of Earth and Life Sciences [Amsterdam] (FALW), Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam [Amsterdam] (VU), Modélisation des Surfaces et Interfaces Continentales (MOSAIC), NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory (AOML), Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Change (MOHC), United Kingdom Met Office [Exeter], Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science [College Park] (AOSC), Earth and Climate, Amsterdam Global Change Institute, Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), and Météo-France
Subjects: Meteorologie en Luchtkwaliteit, ENVIRONMENT SIMULATOR JULES, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, earth system model, environment simulator jules, 010501 environmental sciences, 01 natural sciences, land-use change, chemistry.chemical_compound, ComputingMethodologies_SYMBOLICANDALGEBRAICMANIPULATION, ddc:550, SDG 13 - Climate Action, Land use, land-use change and forestry, DIOXIDE EMISSIONS, lcsh:Environmental sciences, lcsh:GE1-350, EARTH SYSTEM MODEL, lcsh:QE1-996.5, Biosphere, terrestrial ecosystems, Vegetation, LAND-USE CHANGE, FLUX VARIABILITY, Climatology, Carbon dioxide, INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY, FIRE EMISSIONS, international-trade, Meteorology and Air Quality, 530 Physics, interannual variability, Climate change, co2 flux variability, [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-GEO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph], Carbon cycle, Latitude, ANTHROPOGENIC CO2 UPTAKE, Deforestation, Mathematics and natural scienses: 400::Zoology and botany: 480::Ecology: 488 [VDP], TheoryofComputation_ANALYSISOFALGORITHMSANDPROBLEMCOMPLEXITY, SDG 14 - Life Below Water, ATMOSPHERIC CO2, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, atmospheric co2, WIMEK, Généralités, 15. Life on land, dioxide emissions, TERRESTRIAL ECOSYSTEMS, lcsh:Geology, Earth sciences, mixed-layer scheme, chemistry, 13. Climate action, General Earth and Planetary Sciences, Environmental science, Matematikk og naturvitenskap: 400::Zoologiske og botaniske fag: 480::Økologi: 488 [VDP], MathematicsofComputing_DISCRETEMATHEMATICS
Abstract: Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and a methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics, and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates, consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, respectively, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover-change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The mean ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in SOCEAN is evaluated with data products based on surveys of ocean CO2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of independent dynamic global vegetation models forced by observed climate, CO2, and land-cover-change (some including nitrogen-carbon interactions). We compare the mean land and ocean fluxes and their variability to estimates from three atmospheric inverse methods for three broad latitude bands. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ, reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. For the last decade available (2004-2013) EFF was 8.9 ± 0.4 GtC yr-1, ELUC 0.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr-1, GATM 4.3 ± 0.1 GtC yr-1, SOCEAN 2.6 ± 0.5 GtC yr-1, and SLAND 2.9 ± 0.8 GtC yr-1. For year 2013 alone, EFF grew to 9.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr-1, 2.3% above 2012, continuing the growth trend in these emissions, ELUC was 0.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr-1, GATM was 5.4 ± 0.2 GtC yr-1, SOCEAN was 2.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr-1, and SLAND was 2.5 ± 0.9 GtC yr-1. GATM was high in 2013, reflecting a steady increase in EFF and smaller and opposite changes between SOCEAN and SLAND compared to the past decade (2004-2013). The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 395.31 ± 0.10 ppm averaged over 2013. We estimate that EFF will increase by 2.5% (1.3-3.5%) to 10.1 ± 0.6 GtC in 2014 (37.0 ± 2.2 GtCO2 yr-1), 65% above emissions in 1990, based on projections of world gross domestic product and recent changes in the carbon intensity of the global economy. From this projection of EFF and assumed constant ELUC for 2014, cumulative emissions of CO2 will reach about 545 ± 55 GtC (2000 ± 200 GtCO2) for 1870-2014, about 75% from EFF and 25% from ELUC. This paper documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new carbon budget compared with previous publications of this living data set (Le Quéré et al. 2013, 2014). All observations presented here can be downloaded from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (doi:10.3334/CDIAC/GCP-2014)., 0, SCOPUS: ar.j, info:eu-repo/semantics/published
Published: 2015

37. Locked into Copenhagen pledges - Implications of short-term emission targets for the cost and feasibility of long-term climate goals

Author: Aurélie Méjean, Meriem Hamdi-Cherif, Thomas Longden, Michel G.J. den Elzen, Nils Johnson, Valentina Bosetti, Jiyong Eom, Gunnar Luderer, Ottmar Edenhofer, Mikiko Kainuma, Christoph Bertram, Kenichi Wada, Volker Krey, Hal Turton, Morna Isaac, Patrick Criqui, Keywan Riahi, Silvana Mima, Michiel Schaeffer, Pantelis Capros, David L. McCollum, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Elmar Kriegler, Jae Edmonds, Environmental Sciences, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [Laxenburg] (IIASA), Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), National Institute for Public Health and the Environment [Bilthoven] (RIVM), Joint Global Change Research Institute, Wageningen University and Research [Wageningen] (WUR), PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM), Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, centre international de recherche sur l'environnement et le développement (CIRED), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-École des hautes études en sciences sociales (EHESS)-AgroParisTech-Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad), équipe EDDEN, Pacte, Laboratoire de sciences sociales (PACTE), Université Pierre Mendès France - Grenoble 2 (UPMF)-Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 (UJF)-Sciences Po Grenoble - Institut d'études politiques de Grenoble (IEPG)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Pierre Mendès France - Grenoble 2 (UPMF)-Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 (UJF)-Sciences Po Grenoble - Institut d'études politiques de Grenoble (IEPG)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Paul Scherrer Institute (PSI), Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth, Bocconi University, Bocconi University [Milan, Italy], National Technical University of Athens [Athens] (NTUA), National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Chaire MPDD, European Project: 265139,EC:FP7:ENV,FP7-ENV-2010,AMPERE(2011), and Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad)-École des hautes études en sciences sociales (EHESS)-AgroParisTech-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)
Subjects: Economic growth, Mitigation, 7. Clean energy, Pledge, mitigation, Management of Technology and Innovation, 11. Sustainability, Greenhouse gas emissions, Carbon capture and storage, Economics, Copenhagen pledges, Business and International Management, Applied Psychology, Climate policy, business.industry, greenhouse gas emissions, Fossil fuel, climate policy, Overshoot (population), Environmental economics, [SHS.ECO]Humanities and Social Sciences/Economics and Finance, Term (time), 13. Climate action, Software deployment, Greenhouse gas, Science Studies, Copenhagen Accord, AMPERE, business
Abstract: International audience This paper provides an overview of the AMPERE modeling comparison project with focus on the implications of near-term policies for the costs and attainability of long-term climate objectives. Nine modeling teams participated in the project to explore the consequences of global emissions following the proposed policy stringency of the national pledges from the Copenhagen Accord and Cancún Agreements to 2030. Specific features compared to earlier assessments are the explicit consideration of near-term 2030 emission targets as well as the systematic sensitivity analysis for the availability and potential of mitigation technologies. Our estimates show that a 2030 mitigation effort comparable to the pledges would result in a further "lock-in" of the energy system into fossil fuels and thus impede the required energy transformation to reach low greenhouse-gas stabilization levels (450 ppm CO2e). Major implications include significant increases in mitigation costs, increased risk that low stabilization targets become unattainable, and reduced chances of staying below the proposed temperature change target of 2 °C in case of overshoot. With respect to technologies, we find that following the pledge pathways to 2030 would narrow policy choices, and increases the risks that some currently optional technologies, such as carbon capture and storage (CCS) or the large-scale deployment of bioenergy, will become "a must" by 2030.
Published: 2015

38. Global Carbon Budget 2015

Author: Douglas Vandemark, Robert J. Andres, Charles D. Koven, Christian Rödenbeck, Benjamin Poulter, Taro Takahashi, Leticia Barbero, Yukihiro Nojiri, Fiz F. Pérez, Judith Hauck, Jörg Schwinger, S. Nakaoka, Ralph F. Keeling, Etsushi Kato, Gregor Rehder, Pieter P. Tans, Aki Murata, Thanos Gkritzalis, C. Le Quéré, Nathalie Lefèvre, Julia E. M. S. Nabel, R. Moriarty, T. Ono, Laurent Bopp, Tatiana Ilyina, Jinfeng Chang, Thomas A. Boden, Joanna Isobel House, Jan Ivar Korsbakken, Roland Séférian, Atul K. Jain, Marianela Fader, Frank J. Millero, S. van Heuven, Philippe Ciais, Are Olsen, Adrienne J. Sutton, Richard A. Houghton, Louise Chini, Robbie M. Andrew, Denis Pierrot, Tobias Steinhoff, David R. Munro, Nicolas Metzl, Richard A. Feely, Peter Landschützer, Dorothee C. E. Bakker, Pierre Friedlingstein, I. T. van der Laan-Luijkx, Siv K. Lauvset, Kees Klein Goldewijk, Ute Schuster, Benjamin D. Stocker, Andrew Lenton, Ian Harris, Vassilis Kitidis, Stephen Sitch, Ning Zeng, Bronte Tilbrook, Glen P. Peters, S. Saito, Benjamin Pfeil, Andy Wiltshire, Sönke Zaehle, Ivan D. Lima, Karen O'Brien, Almut Arneth, Frédéric Chevallier, G. R. van der Werf, Nicolas Viovy, Josep G. Canadell, Natural Environment Research Council (UK), Norwegian Research Council, European Commission, Department of Energy (US), Helmholtz Association, Leverhulme Trust, Department of Energy and Climate Change (UK), European Research Council, National Aeronautics and Space Administration (US), Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (UK), Department of Commerce (US), National Science Foundation (US), Ministry of Environment (Japan), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (France), Institut Polaire Français Paul Emile Victor, German Research Foundation, Gobierno de España, Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung, European Space Agency, Research Council of Norway, Swiss National Science Foundation, National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center (US), Scripps Institution of Oceanography (US), Leerstoel Ridder, Environmental Sciences, Sub Algemeen Math. Inst, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of East Anglia [Norwich] (UEA), Center for International Climate and Environmental Research [Oslo] (CICERO), University of Oslo (UiO), Oceans and Atmosphere Research, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation [Canberra] (CSIRO), College of Life and Environmental Sciences [Exeter], University of Exeter, Exeter Climate Systems, College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Science, University of Exeter, Exeter, United Kingdom, Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center [Oak Ridge] (CDIAC), U.S. Department of Energy [Washington] (DOE), Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI), University of Bristol [Bristol], Scripps Institution of Oceanography (SIO), University of California [San Diego] (UC San Diego), University of California-University of California, NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung - Atmosphärische Umweltforschung (IMK-IFU), Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT), Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science (RSMAS), University of Miami [Coral Gables], Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Modélisation INVerse pour les mesures atmosphériques et SATellitaires (SATINV), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland [College Park], University of Maryland System-University of Maryland System, ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), Institut méditerranéen de biodiversité et d'écologie marine et continentale (IMBE), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de recherche pour le développement [IRD] : UMR237-Aix Marseille Université (AMU)-Avignon Université (AU), NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory [Seattle] (PMEL), Flanders Marine Institute, VLIZ, Climatic Research Unit [Norwich] (CRU), Alfred-Wegener-Institut, Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung (AWI), Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI-M), Max-Planck-Gesellschaft, Department of Atmospheric Sciences [Urbana], University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign [Urbana], University of Illinois System-University of Illinois System, The Institute of Applied Energy (IAE), Plymouth Marine Laboratory (PML), Plymouth Marine Laboratory, PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Helmholtz Zentrum für Umweltforschung = Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (UFZ), Institute of Applied Energy (IAE), Institute of Biogeochemistry and Pollutant Dynamics [ETH Zürich] (IBP), Department of Environmental Systems Science [ETH Zürich] (D-USYS), Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology [Zürich] (ETH Zürich)- Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology [Zürich] (ETH Zürich), Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research (BCCR), Department of Biological Sciences [Bergen] (BIO / UiB), University of Bergen (UiB)-University of Bergen (UiB), Geophysical Institute [Bergen] (GFI / BiU), University of Bergen (UiB), Austral, Boréal et Carbone (ABC), Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Oceans and Atmosphere Flagship (CSIRO), CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere Flagship, Équipe CO2 (E-CO2), Department of Ocean Sciences, Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences [Boulder] (ATOC), University of Colorado [Boulder], Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research (INSTAAR), Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology (AIST), Instituto de Investigaciones Marinas, Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas [Madrid] (CSIC), Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies (CIMAS), University of Miami [Coral Gables]-University of Miami [Coral Gables], Max-Planck-Institut für Biogeochemie (MPI-BGC), Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), Météo-France [Paris], Météo France, Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research [Kiel] (GEOMAR), Imperial College London, Joint Institute for the Study of the Atmosphere and Ocean (JISAO), University of Washington [Seattle], Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory (LDEO), Columbia University [New York], Wageningen University and Research [Wageningen] (WUR), Faculty of Earth and Life Sciences [Amsterdam] (FALW), Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam [Amsterdam] (VU), Centre for Isotope Research [Groningen] (CIO), University of Groningen [Groningen], Ocean Process Analysis Laboratory, University of New Hampshire (UNH), Modélisation des Surfaces et Interfaces Continentales (MOSAIC), Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Change (MOHC), United Kingdom Met Office [Exeter], Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry (MPI-BGC), Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science [College Park] (AOSC), European Project: 603542,EC:FP7:ENV,FP7-ENV-2013-two-stage,LUC4C(2013), European Project: 282672,EC:FP7:ENV,FP7-ENV-2011,EMBRACE(2011), European Project: 264879,EC:FP7:ENV,FP7-ENV-2010,CARBOCHANGE(2011), Scripps Institution of Oceanography (SIO - UC San Diego), University of California (UC)-University of California (UC), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Avignon Université (AU)-Aix Marseille Université (AMU)-Institut de recherche pour le développement [IRD] : UMR237-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Institute of Arctic Alpine Research [University of Colorado Boulder] (INSTAAR), Météo-France, Earth and Climate, and Geology and Geochemistry
Subjects: Meteorologie en Luchtkwaliteit, ENVIRONMENT SIMULATOR JULES, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, 010501 environmental sciences, Atmospheric sciences, 7. Clean energy, 01 natural sciences, Physical Geography and Environmental Geoscience, chemistry.chemical_compound, FOSSIL-FUEL COMBUSTION, CO2 FLUX VARIABILITY, SDG 13 - Climate Action, Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences, Geosciences, Multidisciplinary, DIOXIDE EMISSIONS, lcsh:Environmental sciences, lcsh:GE1-350, EARTH SYSTEM MODEL, lcsh:QE1-996.5, Biosphere, Geology, Vegetation, LAND-USE CHANGE, COVER CHANGE, Carbon dioxide, Physical Sciences, INTERANNUAL VARIABILITY, Meteorology and Air Quality, Life on Land, MIXED-LAYER SCHEME, Climate change, [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-GEO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph], 12. Responsible consumption, Carbon cycle, Latitude, Atmospheric Sciences, Atmosphere, Deforestation, Life Science, SDG 14 - Life Below Water, ATMOSPHERIC CO2, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, Science & Technology, WIMEK, 15. Life on land, Climate Action, lcsh:Geology, Geochemistry, chemistry, 13. Climate action, General Earth and Planetary Sciences, Environmental science
Abstract: 48 pages, 9 figures, 10 tables.-- Proyecto Carbochange, Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and a methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics, and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates as well as consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover-change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The mean ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in SOCEAN is evaluated with data products based on surveys of ocean CO2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of independent dynamic global vegetation models forced by observed climate, CO2, and land-cover change (some including nitrogen–carbon interactions). We compare the mean land and ocean fluxes and their variability to estimates from three atmospheric inverse methods for three broad latitude bands. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ, reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. For the last decade available (2005–2014), EFF was 9.0 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, ELUC was 0.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, GATM was 4.4 ± 0.1 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN was 2.6 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 3.0 ± 0.8 GtC yr−1. For the year 2014 alone, EFF grew to 9.8 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, 0.6 % above 2013, continuing the growth trend in these emissions, albeit at a slower rate compared to the average growth of 2.2 % yr−1 that took place during 2005–2014. Also, for 2014, ELUC was 1.1 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, GATM was 3.9 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN was 2.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 4.1 ± 0.9 GtC yr−1. GATM was lower in 2014 compared to the past decade (2005–2014), reflecting a larger SLAND for that year. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 397.15 ± 0.10 ppm averaged over 2014. For 2015, preliminary data indicate that the growth in EFF will be near or slightly below zero, with a projection of −0.6 [range of −1.6 to +0.5] %, based on national emissions projections for China and the USA, and projections of gross domestic product corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the global economy for the rest of the world. From this projection of EFF and assumed constant ELUC for 2015, cumulative emissions of CO2 will reach about 555 ± 55 GtC (2035 ± 205 GtCO2) for 1870–2015, about 75 % from EFF and 25 % from ELUC. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new carbon budget compared with previous publications of this data set (Le Quéré et al., 2015, 2014, 2013). All observations presented here can be downloaded from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (doi:10.3334/CDIAC/GCP_2015)., NERC provided funding to C. Le Quéré, R. Moriarty, and the GCP through their International Opportunities Fund specifically to support this publication (NE/103002X/1). G. P. Peters and R. M. Andrew were supported by the Norwegian Research Council (236296). J. G. Canadell was supported by the Australian Climate Change Science Programme. S. Sitch was supported by EU FP7 for funding through projects LUC4C (GA603542). R. J. Andres was supported by US Department of Energy, Office of Science, Biological and Environmental Research (BER) programmes under US Department of Energy contract DE-AC05- 00OR22725. T. A. Boden was supported by US Department of Energy, Office of Science, Biological and Environmental Research (BER) programmes under US Department of Energy contract DE-AC05-00OR22725.J. I. House was supported by the Leverhulme foundation and the EU FP7 through project LUC4C (GA603542). P. Friedlingstein was supported by the EU FP7 for funding through projects LUC4C (GA603542) and EMBRACE (GA282672). A. Arneth was supported by the EU FP7 for funding through LUC4C (603542), and the Helmholtz foundation and its ATMO programme. D. C. E. Bakker was supported by the EU FP7 for funding through project CARBOCHANGE (284879), the UK Ocean Acidification Research Programme (NE/H017046/1; funded by the Natural Environment Research Council, the Department for Energy and Climate Change and the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs). L. Barbero was supported by NOAA’s Ocean Acidification Program and acknowledges support for this work from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) ROSES Carbon Cycle Science under NASA grant 13-CARBON13_2-0080. P. Ciais acknowledges support from the European Research Council through Synergy grant ERC-2013-SyG-610028 “IMBALANCE-P”. M. Fader was supported by the EU FP7 for funding through project LUC4C (GA603542). J. Hauck was supported by the Helmholtz Postdoc Programme (Initiative and Networking Fund of the Helmholtz Association). R. A. Feely and A. J. Sutton were supported by the Climate Observation Division, Climate Program Office, NOAA, US Department of Commerce. A. K. Jain was supported by the US National Science Foundation (NSF AGS 12-43071) the US Department of Energy, Office of Science and BER programmes (DOE DE-SC0006706) and NASA LCLUC programme (NASA NNX14AD94G). E. Kato was supported by the ERTDF (S-10) from the Ministry of Environment, Japan. K. Klein Goldewijk was supported by the Dutch NWO VENI grant no. 863.14.022. S. K. Lauvset was supported by the project “Monitoring ocean acidification in Norwegian waters” from the Norwegian Ministry of Climate and Environment. V. Kitidis was supported by the EU FP7 for funding through project CARBOCHANGE (264879). C. Koven was supported by the Director, Office of Science, Office of Biological and Environmental Research of the US Department of Energy under contract no. DE-AC02-05CH11231 as part of their Regional and Global Climate Modeling Program. P. Landschützer was supported by GEOCarbon. I. T. van der Lann-Luijkx received financial support from OCW/NWO for ICOS-NL and computing time from NWO (SH-060-13). I. D. Lima was supported by the US National Science Foundation (NSF AGS-1048827). N. Metzl was supported by Institut National des Sciences de l’Univers (INSU) and Institut Paul Emile Victor (IPEV) for OISO cruises. D. R. Munro was supported by the US National Science Foundation (NSF PLR-1341647 and NSF AOAS-0944761). J. E. M. S. Nabel was supported by the German Research Foundation’s Emmy Noether Programme (PO1751/1-1) and acknowledges Julia Pongratz and Kim Naudts for their contributions. Y. Nojiri and S. Nakaoka were supported by the Global Environment Research Account for National Institutes (1432) by the Ministry of Environment of Japan. A. Olsen appreciates support from the Norwegian Research Council (SNACS, 229752). F. F. Pérez were supported by BOCATS (CTM2013-41048-P) project co-founded by the Spanish government and the Fondo Europeo de Desarrollo Regional (FEDER). B. Pfeil was supported through the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme AtlantOS under grant agreement no. 633211. D. Pierrot was supported by NOAA through the Climate Observation Division of the Climate Program Office. B. Poulter was supported by the EU FP7 for funding through GEOCarbon. G. Rehder was supported by BMBF (Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung) through project ICOS, grant no. 01LK1224D. U. Schuster was supported by NERC UKOARP (NE/H017046/1), NERC RAGANRoCC (NE/K002473/1), the European Space Agency (ESA) OceanFlux Evolution project, and EU FP7 CARBOCHANGE (264879). T. Steinhoff was supported by ICOS-D (BMBF FK 01LK1101C) and EU FP7 for funding through project CARBOCHANGE (264879). J. Schwinger was supported by the Research Council of Norway through project EVA (229771). T. Takahashi was supported by grants from NOAA and the Comer Education and Science Foundation. B. Tilbrook was supported by the Australian Department of Environment and the Integrated Marine Observing System. B. D. Stocker was supported by the Swiss National Science Foundation and FP7 funding through project EMBRACE (282672). S. van Heuven was supported by the EU FP7 for funding through project CARBOCHANGE (264879). G. R. van der Werf was supported by the European Research Council (280061). A. Wiltshire was supported by the Joint UK DECC/Defra Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme (GA01101) and EU FP7 Funding through project LUC4C (603542). S. Zaehle was supported by the European Research Council (ERC) under the Eu ropean Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (QUINCY; grant agreement no. 647204). ISAM (PI: Atul K. Jain) simulations were carried out at the National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center (NERSC), which is supported by the US DOE under contract DE-AC02-05CH11231. Contributions from the Scripps Institution of Oceanography were supported under DoE grant DE-SC0012167 and by Schmidt Philanthropies. This is NOAA-PMEL contribution number 4400
Published: 2015

39. Diagnostic indicators for integrated assessment models of climate policy

Author: Kriegler, Elmar, Petermann, Nils, Krey, Volker, Schwanitz, Valeria Jana, Luderer, Gunnar, Ashina, Shuichi, Bosetti, Valentina, Eom, Jiyong, Kitous, Alban, Méjean, Aurélie, Paroussos, Leonidas, Sano, Fuminori, Turton, Hal, Wilson, Charlie, Van Vuuren, Detlef P., Environmental Sciences, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [Laxenburg] (IIASA), Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Joint Research Centre (IPTS), Commission Européenne, centre international de recherche sur l'environnement et le développement (CIRED), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-École des hautes études en sciences sociales (EHESS)-AgroParisTech-Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad), Paul Scherrer Institute (PSI), PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Utrecht University [Utrecht], Chaire MPDD, and Environmental Sciences
Subjects: Energy system models, Integrated assessment models, Order (exchange), Carbon price, Management of Technology and Innovation, Taverne, Econometrics, Range (statistics), Economics, Business and International Management, Baseline (configuration management), Applied Psychology, business.industry, Environmental resource management, Climate change economics, Climate policy, [SHS.ECO]Humanities and Social Sciences/Economics and Finance, Variety (cybernetics), Transformation (function), Climate change mitigation, 13. Climate action, Energy intensity, Model diagnostics, business
Abstract: International audience; Integrated assessments of how climate policy interacts with energy-economy systems can be performed by a variety of models with different functional structures. In order to provide insights into why results differ between models, this article proposes a diagnostic scheme that can be applied to a wide range of models. Diagnostics can uncover patterns of model behavior and indicate how results differ between model types. Such insights are informative since model behavior can have a significant impact on projections of climate change mitigation costs and other policy-relevant information. The authors propose diagnostic indicators to characterize model responses to carbon price signals and test these in a diagnostic study of 11 global models. Indicators describe the magnitude of emission abatement and the associated costs relative to a harmonized baseline, the relative changes in carbon intensity and energy intensity, and the extent of transformation in the energy system. This study shows a correlation among indicators suggesting that models can be classified into groups based on common patterns of behavior in response to carbon pricing. Such a classification can help to explain variations among policy-relevant model results.
Published: 2015

40. Global carbon budget 2014

Author: Le Quéré, Corinne, Moriarty, Róisín, Andrew, Robbie M., Peters, Glen P., Ciais, Philippe, Friedlingstein, Pierre, Jones, Stephen D., Sitch, Stephen, Tans, Pieter P., Arneth, Almut, Boden, Thomas A., Bopp, Laurent, Bozec, Yann, Canadell, Josep G., Chevallier, Frédéric, Cosca, Catherine E., Harris, Ian, Hoppema, Mario, Houghton, Richard A., House, J., Jain, Atul K., Johannessen, Truls, Kato, Etsushi, Keeling, Ralph F., Kitidis, Vassilis, Klein Goldewijk, Kees, Koven, C., Landa, Camilla S., Landschützer, Peter, Lenton, Andrew, Lima, Ivan D., Marland, Gregg, Mathis, Jeremy T., Metzl, Nicolas, Nojiri, Yukihiro, Olsen, Are, Ono, Tsuneo, Peters, Wouter, Pfeil, Benjamin, Poulter, Benjamin, Raupach, M. R., Regnier, P., Rödenbeck, Christian, Saito, Shu, Salisbury, Joseph E., Schuster, Ute, Schwinger, Jörg, Séférian, Roland, Segschneider, Joachim, Steinhoff, Tobias, Stocker, Benjamin D., Sutton, Adrienne J., Takahashi, Taro, Tilbrook, Bronte, Van Der Werf, Guido R., Viovy, Nicolas, Wang, Y.-P., Wanninkhof, Rik H., Wiltshire, Andrew J., Zeng, N., Lefèvre, Nathalie, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of East Anglia [Norwich] (UEA), Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research and School of Environmental Sciences, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris-Saclay-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), University of Exeter, College of Life and Environmental Sciences [Exeter], NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung - Atmosphärische Umweltforschung (IMK-IFU), Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT), Division technique INSU/SDU (DTI), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory [Seattle] (PMEL), Climatic Research Unit, University of East Anglia, Department of Bentho-pelagic processes, Alfred-Wegener-Institut, Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung (AWI), University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign [Urbana], University of Illinois System, Geophysical Institute [Bergen], University of Bergen (UIB), The Institute of Applied Energy (IAE), Plymouth Marine Laboratory (PML), Plymouth Marine Laboratory, PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (UFZ), Institute of Biogeochemistry and Pollutant Dynamics [ETH Zürich] (IBP), Department of Environmental Systems Science [ETH Zürich] (D-USYS), Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zürich [Zürich] (ETH Zürich)-Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zürich [Zürich] (ETH Zürich), Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Appalachian State University, University, Équipe CO2 (E-CO2), Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN), National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology (AIST), Centre for Isotope Research [Groningen] (CIO), University of Groningen [Groningen], Université libre de Bruxelles (ULB), Max-Planck-Institut für Biogeochemie (MPI-BGC), Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research (BCCR), Department of Biological Sciences [Bergen] (BIO), University of Bergen (UIB)-University of Bergen (UIB), Groupe d'étude de l'atmosphère météorologique (CNRM-GAME), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Météo France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI-M), Max-Planck-Gesellschaft, Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research [Kiel] (GEOMAR), Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation [Canberra] (CSIRO), NOAA Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory (AOML), Met Office Hadley Centre (MOHC), United Kingdom Met Office [Exeter], Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science [College Park] (AOSC), University of Maryland [College Park], University of Maryland System-University of Maryland System, and Austral, Boréal et Carbone (ABC)
Subjects: 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, 13. Climate action, [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-GEO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph], 15. Life on land, 010501 environmental sciences, 7. Clean energy, 01 natural sciences, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Abstract: Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe datasets and a methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates, consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, respectively, while emissions from Land-Use Change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The mean ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in SOCEAN is evaluated with data products based on surveys of ocean CO2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of independent Dynamic Global Vegetation Models forced by observed climate, CO2 and land cover change (some including nitrogen-carbon interactions). We compare the variability and mean land and ocean fluxes to estimates from three atmospheric inverse methods for three broad latitude bands. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ, reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. For the last decade available (2004–2013), EFF was 8.9 ± 0.4 GtC yr−1, ELUC 0.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, GATM 4.3 ± 0.1 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN 2.6 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND 2.9 ± 0.8 GtC yr−1. For year 2013 alone, EFF grew to 9.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, 2.3% above 2012, contining the growth trend in these emissions. ELUC was 0.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, GATM was 5.4 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN was 2.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 and SLAND was 2.5 ± 0.9 GtC yr−1. GATM was high in 2013 reflecting a steady increase in EFF and smaller and opposite changes between SOCEAN and SLAND compared to the past decade (2004–2013). The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 395.31 ± 0.10 ppm averaged over 2013. We estimate that EFF will increase by 2.5% (1.3–3.5%) to 10.1 ± 0.6 GtC in 2014 (37.0 ± 2.2 GtCO2 yr−1), 65% above emissions in 1990, based on projections of World Gross Domestic Product and recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy. From this projection of EFF and assumed constant ELUC for 2014, cumulative emissions of CO2 will reach about 545 ± 55 GtC (2000 ± 200 GtCO2) for 1870–2014, about 75% from EFF and 25% from ELUC. This paper documents changes in the methods and datasets used in this new carbon budget compared with previous publications of this living dataset (Le Quéré et al., 2013, 2014). All observations presented here can be downloaded from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (doi:10.3334/CDIAC/GCP_2014). Italic font highlights significant methodological changes and results compared to the Le Quéré et al. (2014) manuscript that accompanies the previous version of this living data.
Published: 2014

41. The role of renewable energy in climate stabilization: results from the EMF27 scenarios

Author: Katherine Calvin, Gunnar Luderer, Kenichi Wada, Robert C. Pietzcker, Silvana Mima, James Merrick, Jasper van Vliet, Volker Krey, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [Laxenburg] (IIASA), Joint Global Change Research Institute, Electric Power Research Institute, (EPRI), Electric Power Research Institute, équipe EDDEN, Pacte, Laboratoire de sciences sociales (PACTE), Université Pierre Mendès France - Grenoble 2 (UPMF)-Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 (UJF)-Sciences Po Grenoble - Institut d'études politiques de Grenoble (IEPG)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Pierre Mendès France - Grenoble 2 (UPMF)-Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 (UJF)-Sciences Po Grenoble - Institut d'études politiques de Grenoble (IEPG)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, and Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth
Subjects: Atmospheric Science, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, 020209 energy, 02 engineering and technology, 7. Clean energy, 01 natural sciences, 0202 electrical engineering, electronic engineering, information engineering, Energy supply, Solar power, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, Global and Planetary Change, Wind power, business.industry, Environmental resource management, renewable energy,climate change,scenario, Environmental economics, Solar energy, [SHS.ECO]Humanities and Social Sciences/Economics and Finance, renewable energy, Renewable energy, scenario, Climate change mitigation scenarios, Climate change mitigation, climate change, 13. Climate action, Environmental science, business, Energy source
Abstract: International audience; This paper uses the EMF27 scenarios to explore the role of renewable energy (RE) in climate change mitigation. Currently RE supplies almost 20 % of global electricity demand. Almost all EMF27 mitigation scenarios show a strong increase in renewable power production, with a substantial ramp-up of wind and solar power deployment. In many scenarios, renewables are the most important long-term mitigation option for power supply. Wind energy is competitive even without climate policy, whereas the prospects of solar photovoltaics (PV) are highly contingent on the ambitiousness of climate policy. Bioenergy is an important and versatile energy carrier; however--with the exception of low temperature heat--there is less scope for renewables other than biomass for non-electric energy supply. Despite the important role of wind and solar power in climate change mitigation scenarios with full technology availability, limiting their deployment has a relatively small effect on mitigation costs, if nuclear and carbon capture and storage (CCS)--which can serve as substitutes in low-carbon power supply--are available. Limited bioenergy availability in combination with limited wind and solar power by contrast, results in a more substantial increase in mitigation costs. While a number of robust insights emerge, the results on renewable energy deployment levels vary considerably across the models. An in-depth analysis of a subset of EMF27 reveals substantial differences in modeling approaches and parameter assumptions. To a certain degree, differences in model results can be attributed to different assumptions about technology costs, resource potentials and systems integration.
Published: 2014

42. Sharing a quota on cumulative carbon emissions

Author: Robbie M. Andrew, Philippe Ciais, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Michael R. Raupach, Pierre Friedlingstein, Steven J. Davis, Frank Jotzo, Glen P. Peters, Corinne Le Quéré, Josep G. Canadell, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation [Canberra] (CSIRO), University of California, Center for International Climate and Environmental Research [Oslo] (CICERO), University of Oslo (UiO), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), University of Exeter, Australian National University (ANU), PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of East Anglia [Norwich] (UEA), University of California (UC), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), and Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)
Subjects: [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, business.industry, Natural resource economics, Environmental Science and Management, Global warming, Global change, Environmental Science (miscellaneous), 7. Clean energy, Physical Geography and Environmental Geoscience, Renewable energy, Carbon cycle, Atmospheric Sciences, Climate Action, Oceanography, 13. Climate action, Greenhouse gas, Sustainability, Range (statistics), Environmental science, Emissions trading, business, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, Social Sciences (miscellaneous), ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS
Abstract: © 2014 Macmillan Publishers Limited. Any limit on future global warming is associated with a quota on cumulative global CO2 emissions. We translate this global carbon quota to regional and national scales, on a spectrum of sharing principles that extends from continuation of the present distribution of emissions to an equal per-capita distribution of cumulative emissions. A blend of these endpoints emerges as the most viable option. For a carbon quota consistent with a 2°C warming limit (relative to pre-industrial levels), the necessary long-term mitigation rates are very challenging (typically over 5% per year), both because of strong limits on future emissions from the global carbon quota and also the likely short-term persistence in emissions growth in many regions.
Published: 2014

43. Yield-scaled mitigation of ammonia emission from N fertilization: the Spanish case

Author: Josette Garnier, Guillermo Pardo, Eduardo Aguilera, Luis Lassaletta, Diego Abalos, Mark A. Sutton, A. del Prado, Fernando Estellés, Gilles Billen, Guillermo Guardia, Antonio Vallejo, Alberto Sanz-Cobena, E.T.S.I Agrónomos, PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Milieux Environnementaux, Transferts et Interactions dans les hydrosystèmes et les Sols (METIS), Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-École Pratique des Hautes Études (EPHE), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Universitat Politècnica de València (UPV), Basque Centre for Climate change, Universidad Pablo Olavide, Centre for Ecology and Hydrology [Edinburgh] (CEH), Natural Environment Research Council (NERC), Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation, Autonomous Community of Madrid [AGL2012-37815- C05-01, AGL2012-37815-C05-04, AGL2011-30023-C03], Agrisost Project [S2009/AGR-1630], Canadian Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council [895-2011-1020], and Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-École pratique des hautes études (EPHE)
Subjects: fertilizers, Soil acidification, [SDV.SA.AGRO]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Agricultural sciences/Agronomy, engineering.material, PRODUCCION ANIMAL, regional scale, Mitigation scenarios, nitrogen use efficiency, Atmospheric Sciences, [SDU.STU.GC]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Geochemistry, Regional scale, Leaching (agriculture), Fertilizers, NH3 emission, General Environmental Science, 2. Zero hunger, Nitrogen use efficiency, Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment, business.industry, N yields, Crop yield, Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health, mitigation scenarios, Manure, Agronomy, Agriculture and Soil Science, 13. Climate action, Agriculture, engineering, Environmental science, Nitrification, Fertilizer, Eutrophication, business
Abstract: [EN] Synthetic nitrogen (N) fertilizer and field application of livestock manure are the major sources of ammonia (NH3) volatilization. This N loss may decrease crop productivity and subsequent deposition promotes environmental problems associated with soil acidification and eutrophication. Mitigation measures may have associated side effects such as decreased crop productivity (e.g. if N fertilizer application is reduced), or the release of other reactive N compounds (e.g. N2O emissions if manure is incorporated). Here, we present a novel methodology to provide an integrated assessment of the best strategies to abate NH3 from N applications to crops. Using scenario analyses, we assessed the potential of 11 mitigation measures to reduce NH3 volatilization while accounting for their side effects on crop productivity, N use efficiency (NUE) and N surplus (used as an indicator of potential N losses by denitrification/nitrification and NO3 − leaching/run-off). Spain, including its 48 provinces, was selected as a case study as it is the third major producer of agricultural goods in Europe, and also the European country with the highest increase in NH3 emissions from 1990 to 2011. Mitigation scenarios comprised of individual measures and combinations of strategies were evaluated at a country- and regional level. Compared to the reference situation of standard practices for the year 2008, implementation of the most effective region-specific mitigation strategy led to 63% NH3 mitigation at the country level. Implementation of a single strategy for all regions reduced NH3 by 57% at the highest. Strategies that involved combining mitigation measures produced the largest NH3 abatement in all cases, with an 80% reduction in some regions. Among the strategies analyzed, only suppression of urea application combined with manure incorporation and incorporation of N synthetic fertilizers other than urea showed a fully beneficial situation: yieldscaled NH3 emissions were reduced by 82%, N surplus was reduced by 9%, NUE was increased by 19% and yield was around 98% that of the reference situation. This study shows that the adoption of viable measures may provide an opportunity for countries like Spain to meet the international agreements on NH3 mitigation, while maintaining crop yields and increasing NUE, The authors are grateful to the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation and the Autonomous Community of Madrid for their economic support through the NEREA project (AGL2012-37815- C05-01, AGL2012-37815-C05-04) and GASPORC (AGL2011-30023-C03) projects. We wish to thank the FIRE (Federation Ile de France de Recherche en Environment, CNRS and UPMC) as well as the Agrisost Project (S2009/AGR-1630). Eduardo Aguilera gratefully acknowledges funding by the 895-2011-1020 project (Canadian Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council). This paper has been produced within the context of the REMEDIA network (http://redremedia.wordpress.com).
Published: 2014

44. Assessing Pathways toward Ambitious Climate Targets at the Global and European levels: A Synthesis of Results from the AMPERE Project

Author: Kriegler, Elmar, Riah, Keywan, Petermann, Nils, Bosetti, Valentina, Capros, Pantelis, Van Vuuren, Detlef, Criqui, Patrick, Egenhofer, Christian, Fragkos, Panagiotis, Johnson, Nils, Paroussos, Leonidas, Edenhofer, Ottmar, PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, équipe EDDEN, Pacte, Laboratoire de sciences sociales (PACTE), Université Pierre Mendès France - Grenoble 2 (UPMF)-Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 (UJF)-Sciences Po Grenoble - Institut d'études politiques de Grenoble (IEPG)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Pierre Mendès France - Grenoble 2 (UPMF)-Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 (UJF)-Sciences Po Grenoble - Institut d'études politiques de Grenoble (IEPG)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), European Commission, and European Project
Subjects: [SHS.ECO]Humanities and Social Sciences/Economics and Finance
Abstract: The synthesis report "Assessing Pathways toward Ambitious Climate Targets at the Global and European Levels" presents the following key findings from the AMPERE project:- Global progress to reduce greenhouse gas emissions over the next two decades is crucial for achieving ambitious climate targets at low costs- Europe can signal the will for strong emissions reductions - with large climate benefits if others follow- Decarbonisation holds challenges and opportunities for EuropeThese findings are based on the AMPERE research efforts by 22 international institutions from February 2011 to January 2014 with the use of 17 energy-economy and integrated assessment models.
Published: 2014

45. Transforming the European Energy System: Member States' Prospects within the EU Framework

Author: Knopf, Brigitte, Bakken, BjØrn, Carrara, Samuel, Kanudia, Amit, Keppo, Ilkka, Koljonen, Tiina, Mima, Silvana, Schmid, E. V.A., Van Vuuren, Detlef P., Environmental Sciences, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), SINTEF Energy, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM), Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, KanORS-EMR, UCL Energy Institute, University College of London [London] (UCL), VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland (VTT), équipe EDDEN, Pacte, Laboratoire de sciences sociales (PACTE), Université Pierre Mendès France - Grenoble 2 (UPMF)-Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 (UJF)-Sciences Po Grenoble - Institut d'études politiques de Grenoble (IEPG)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Pierre Mendès France - Grenoble 2 (UPMF)-Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 (UJF)-Sciences Po Grenoble - Institut d'études politiques de Grenoble (IEPG)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, and Environmental Sciences
Subjects: Economics and Econometrics, Resource (biology), Monitoring, 020209 energy, 02 engineering and technology, National Renewable Action Plans (NREAPs), Management, Monitoring, Policy and Law, 7. Clean energy, Energy policy, Order (exchange), 0502 economics and business, environmental federalism, 0202 electrical engineering, electronic engineering, information engineering, Member state, Economics, 050207 economics, Global and Planetary Change, Policy and Law, business.industry, 05 social sciences, Energy modeling, jel:Q2, mitigation scenarios, [SHS.ECO]Humanities and Social Sciences/Economics and Finance, jel:Q4, Renewable energy, Variety (cybernetics), Management, Economy, 13. Climate action, Greenhouse gas, European Climate and Energy Policy, National Renewable Action Plans (Nreaps), Environmental Federalism, Mitigation Scenarios, European climate and energy policy,National Renewable Action Plans (NREAPs),environmental federalism,mitigation scenarios, European climate and energy policy, Economic system, business
Abstract: http://www.worldscientific.com/doi/pdfplus/10.1142/S2010007813400058; International audience; The Energy Modeling Forum 28 (EMF28) performed a large-scale model comparison exercise to illustrate different technology pathways for cutting European greenhouse gas emissions by 80% by 2050. Focusing on selected countries (France, Germany, Italy, Sweden, and UK), this paper first analyzes climate and energy policy objectives and debates in the respective countries. It then compares EMF28 model results to the short-term projections of the National Renewable Energy Action Plans (NREAPs) and the long-term transformation pathway given in the European Commission's "Energy Roadmap 2050". It concludes that there is sufficient agreement with the NREAPs and national policies to accept the model results as conceivable scenarios. The scenarios suggest that in the future a variety of different national energy mixes will continue to reflect the different resource bases and preferences of individual Member States. In order to ensure a cost-efficient transformation, it is important to improve coordination between Member State policies and those at the EU level.
Published: 2013

46. Le mythe se fissure : nouveaux défis des politiques foncières aux Pays-Bas

Author: Buitelaar, Edwin, Verhage, Roelof, Department of Spatial Planning and Quality of the Local Environment, PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Triangle : action, discours, pensée politique et économique (TRIANGLE), École normale supérieure de Lyon (ENS de Lyon)-Université Lumière - Lyon 2 (UL2)-Sciences Po Lyon - Institut d'études politiques de Lyon (IEP Lyon), Université de Lyon-Université de Lyon-Université Jean Monnet - Saint-Étienne (UJM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Sciences Po Lyon - Institut d'études politiques de Lyon (IEP Lyon), Université de Lyon-Université de Lyon-Université Jean Monnet [Saint-Étienne] (UJM)-Université Lumière - Lyon 2 (UL2)-École normale supérieure - Lyon (ENS Lyon), and Verhage, Roelof
Subjects: logement, crise, politiques foncières, Pays-Bas, [SHS.SCIPO] Humanities and Social Sciences/Political science, [SHS.SCIPO]Humanities and Social Sciences/Political science
Abstract: "On ne sait plus quoi penser du modèle hollandais. Les mythiques politiques foncières néerlandaises ne seraient-elles plus que l'ombre d'elles-mêmes ? Si des fissures sont bien visibles, et menacent le système vanté dans tous les bons manuels, le mythe est loin d'avoir été balayé."
Published: 2013

47. A synthesis of carbon dioxide emissions from fossil-fuel combustion

Author: Philippe Ciais, John B. Miller, François-Marie Bréon, Andrew R. Jacobson, Gregg Marland, J. G. J. Olivier, Michael R. Raupach, Tom Boden, Peter Rayner, Robert J. Andres, D. Erickson, Tomohiro Oda, Steven J. Davis, Jay Sterling Gregg, K. Treanton, Oak Ridge National Laboratory [Oak Ridge] (ORNL), UT-Battelle, LLC, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Modélisation INVerse pour les mesures atmosphériques et SATellitaires (SATINV), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), Stanford University, Risø National Laboratory for Sustainable Energy (Risø DTU), Danmarks Tekniske Universitet = Technical University of Denmark (DTU), NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL), National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Appalachian State University, University of North Carolina System (UNC), PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research (CSIRO-MAR), Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation [Canberra] (CSIRO), School of Earth Sciences [Melbourne], Faculty of Science [Melbourne], University of Melbourne-University of Melbourne, International Atomic Energy Agency [Vienna] (IAEA), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), and Technical University of Denmark [Lyngby] (DTU)
Subjects: 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, growth, lcsh:Life, Fossil fuel combustion, 010501 environmental sciences, Combustion, 01 natural sciences, 7. Clean energy, models, chemistry.chemical_compound, co2 emissions, Trace gas emissions, lcsh:QH540-549.5, Physical Sciences and Mathematics, land-use, consumption, Temporal scales, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, Earth-Surface Processes, input-output-analysis, [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, flows, business.industry, lcsh:QE1-996.5, Fossil fuel, Environmental engineering, footprint, dioxide emissions, lcsh:Geology, lcsh:QH501-531, chemistry, 13. Climate action, Carbon dioxide, impact, Environmental science, lcsh:Ecology, business
Abstract: This synthesis discusses the emissions of carbon dioxide from fossil-fuel combustion and cement production. While much is known about these emissions, there is still much that is unknown about the details surrounding these emissions. This synthesis explores our knowledge of these emissions in terms of why there is concern about them; how they are calculated; the major global efforts on inventorying them; their global, regional, and national totals at different spatial and temporal scales; how they are distributed on global grids (i.e., maps); how they are transported in models; and the uncertainties associated with these different aspects of the emissions. The magnitude of emissions from the combustion of fossil fuels has been almost continuously increasing with time since fossil fuels were first used by humans. Despite events in some nations specifically designed to reduce emissions, or which have had emissions reduction as a byproduct of other events, global total emissions continue their general increase with time. Global total fossil-fuel carbon dioxide emissions are known to within 10 % uncertainty (95 % confidence interval). Uncertainty on individual national total fossil-fuel carbon dioxide emissions range from a few percent to more than 50 %. This manuscript concludes that carbon dioxide emissions from fossil-fuel combustion continue to increase with time and that while much is known about the overall characteristics of these emissions, much is still to be learned about the detailed characteristics of these emissions.
Published: 2012

48. Impacts of European livestock production: nitrogen, sulphur, phosphorus and greenhouse gas emissions, land-use, water eutrophication and biodiversity

Author: David Simpson, Mark A. Sutton, Bruna Grizzetti, Franz Weiss, Gilles Billen, Adrian Leip, Henk Westhoek, Luis Lassaletta, Stefan Reis, Josette Garnier, Wim de Vries, European Commission - Joint Research Centre [Ispra] (JRC), Milieux Environnementaux, Transferts et Interactions dans les hydrosystèmes et les Sols (METIS), Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-École pratique des hautes études (EPHE), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Peninsula Medical School, University of Exeter, Centre for Ecology and Hydrology of Edinburgh (CEH), Norwegian Meteorological Institute [Oslo] (MET), Department of Earth and Space Sciences [Göteborg], Chalmers University of Technology [Göteborg], Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Environmental Systems Analysis Group, Wageningen University and Research [Wageningen] (WUR), Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-École Pratique des Hautes Études (EPHE), and University of Exeter
Subjects: 7. Clean energy, 12. Responsible consumption, biodiversity loss, Environmental protection, Agricultural land, 11. Sustainability, media_common.cataloged_instance, European Union, coastal eutrophication, livestock production, Duurzaam Bodemgebruik, European union, General Environmental Science, media_common, Sustainable Soil Use, 2. Zero hunger, WIMEK, Land use, Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment, business.industry, Global warming, Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health, 15. Life on land, air quality, Soil quality, Environmental Systems Analysis, climate change, Agriculture and Soil Science, Agronomy, 13. Climate action, Agriculture, Milieusysteemanalyse, Greenhouse gas, Environmental science, Livestock, soil acidification, [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology, business
Abstract: International audience; Livestock production systems currently occupy around 28% of the land surface of the European Union (equivalent to 65% of the agricultural land). In conjunction with other human activities, livestock production systems affect water, air and soil quality, global climate and biodiversity, altering the biogeochemical cycles of nitrogen, phosphorus and carbon. Here, we quantify the contribution of European livestock production to these major impacts. For each environmental effect, the contribution of livestock is expressed as shares of the emitted compounds and land used, as compared to the whole agricultural sector. The results show that the livestock sector contributes significantly to agricultural environmental impacts. This contribution is 78% for terrestrial biodiversity loss, 80% for soil acidification and air pollution (ammonia and nitrogen oxides emissions), 81% for global warming, and 73% for water pollution (both N and P). The agriculture sector itself is one of the major contributors to these environmental impacts, ranging between 12% for global warming and 59% for N water quality impact. Significant progress in mitigating these environmental impacts in Europe will only be possible through a combination of technological measures reducing livestock emissions, improved food choices and reduced food waste of European citizens.
Published: 2015

49. Socio-economic Scenario Development for Climate Change Analysis

Author: Elmar Kriegler, Brian-C O'Neill, Stéphane Hallegatte, Tom Kram, Richard-H Moss, Robert Lempert, Thomas J Wilbanks, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), National Center for Atmospheric Research [Boulder] (NCAR), Météo-France [Paris], Météo France, PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Joint Global Change Research Institute, RAND Corp, Oak Ridge National Laboratory [Oak Ridge] (ORNL), and UT-Battelle, LLC
Subjects: climate change, Changement Climatique, Scénarios socio-économiques, adaptation and vulnerability, integrated assessment modeling, Modèles d'évaluation intégrés, impact, adaptation et vulnérabilité, [SHS.ECO]Humanities and Social Sciences/Economics and Finance, socio-economic scenario,climate change,impact,adaptation and vulnerability,integrated assessment modeling,Scénarios socio-économiques,Changement Climatique,adaptation et vulnérabilité,Modèles d'évaluation intégrés, socio-economic scenario
Abstract: Socio-economic scenarios constitute an important tool for exploring the long-term consequences of anthropogenic climate change and available response options. They have been applied for different purposes and to a different degree in various areas of climate change analysis, typically in combination with projections of future climate change. Integrated assessment modeling (IAM) has used them to develop greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions scenarios for the 21st century and to investigate strategies for mitigating GHG emissions on a global scale. Analyses of climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerabilities (IAV) depend heavily on assumptions about underlying socio-economic developments, but have employed socio-economic scenarios to a lesser degree, due mainly to the multitude of contexts and scales of such analyses. A more consistent use of socio-economic scenarios that would allow an integrated perspective on mitigation, adaptation and residual climate impacts remains a major challenge. We assert that the identification of a set of global narratives and socio-economic pathways offering scalability to different regional contexts, a reasonable coverage of key socio-economic dimensions and relevant futures, and a sophisticated approach to separating climate policy from counter-factual "no policy" scenarios would be an important step towards meeting this challenge. Such "Shared Socio-economic Pathways" (SSPs) should be specified in an iterative manner and with close collaboration between IAM and IAV researchers to assure coverage of key dimensions, sufficient scalability and widespread adoption. They can be used not only as inputs to analyses, but also to collect the results of different climate change analyses in a matrix defined by two dimensions : climate exposure as characterized by a radiative forcing or temperature level and socio-economic development as classified by the SSPs. For some applications, SSPs may have to be augmented by "Shared Climate Policy Assumptions" (SPAs) capturing global components of climate policies that some studies may require as inputs. Finally, sufficient coverage of the relevant socio-economic dimensions for the analysis of mitigation, adaptation and residual climate impacts may be assessed by locating the SSPs along the dimensions of challenges to mitigation and to adaptation. We conclude that the development of SSPs, and integrated socio-economic scenarios more broadly, is a useful focal point for collaborative efforts between IAM and IAV researchers. This is likely to be a long-term and iterative enterprise comprising a collection of different activities : periodically taking stock of the evolving scenario work in both research communities, linking up individual efforts, and pursuing collaborative scenario work through appropriate platforms that still need to be established. In the short run, an important goal is to produce tangible outcomes that would allow the 5th Assessment Report of the IPCC to take a more integrated perspective on mitigation, adaptation and residual climate impacts., Les scénarios socio-économiques constituent un important outil d'exploration des conséquences de long terme du changement climatique d'origine anthropique, et des options disponibles pour y répondre. Ils ont été appliqués pour différents objectifs et à des degrés différents dans plusieurs domaines de l'analyse du changement climatique, typiquement en combinaison avec les projections de changements climatiques futurs. Les modèles d'évaluation intégrés (MEI) les ont utilisés pour développer des scénarios d'émissions de gaz à effet de serre (GES) pour le XXIe siècle et pour examiner les stratégies d'atténuation des émissions de GES à l'échelle planétaire. Les analyses sur les "impacts, l'adaptation, et la vulnérabilité" (IAV) du changement climatique dépendent fortement des hypothèses relatives aux développements socio-économiques sous-jacents, mais elles ont utilisé dans une moindre mesure les scénarios socio-économiques, principalement en raison de la multitude des contextes et des échelles de telles analyses. Il reste aujourd'hui difficile de mettre en place une utilisation plus cohérente des scénarios socio-économiques, qui autoriserait une vision plus intégrée de l'atténuation, de l'adaptation et des impacts climatiques résiduels. Nous soutenons qu'une étape importante pour relever ce défi est l'identification d'un ensemble de scénarios qualitatifs globaux et des trajectoires socio-économiques correspondantes, qui pourraient être déclinés à différentes échelles spatiales et couvriraient de manière convenable les différentes dimensions socio-économiques des futurs possibles. De telles " trajectoires socio-économiques partagées " (TSP) doivent être spécifiées de façon interactive, par une étroite collaboration entre les chercheurs MEI et IAV pour garantir le traitement des dimensions les plus importantes, la possibilité de décliner les scénarios à différentes échelles, et pour favoriser une large utilisation des TSP par l'ensemble de la communauté. Ces TSP peuvent être utilisées non seulement comme une information d'entrée pour des analyses spécifiques, mais aussi pour rassembler les résultats de différentes études dans une matrice définie selon deux dimensions : l'exposition climatique, caractérisée par un forçage radiatif ou un niveau de température, et le développement socio-économique, décrit par les TSP. Les TSP pourront également être augmentées "d'hypothèses partagées de politique climatique" (HPP), qui décrivent les composantes globales des politiques climatiques, nécessaires à certaines études. Finalement, on pourra vérifier que les TSP réalisent une couverture suffisante des dimensions socio-économiques pertinentes pour l'analyse de l'atténuation, de l'adaptation, et des impacts climatiques résiduels, en les situant selon deux dimensions, la première mesurant la capacité à l'atténuation et l'autre la capacité à s'adapter. Nous concluons que le développement des TSP, et plus largement celui des scénarios socioéconomiques intégrés, est un point central des efforts de collaboration entre les chercheurs des communautés MEI et IAV. C'est probablement une entreprise itérative et de long terme comportant un ensemble d'activités très différentes : faire périodiquement un bilan du travail des deux communautés de recherche sur les scénarios, rapprocher les efforts individuels sur ce thème, et mener un travail collaboratif sur les scénarios via des plates-formes appropriées qui restent encore à instituer. À court terme, un objectif important est la production de résultats tangibles permettant au cinquième rapport d'évaluation du GIEC d'adopter un point de vue plus intégré sur l'atténuation, l'adaptation et les impacts climatiques résiduels.
Published: 2010

50. Development and testing scenarios for implementing land use and land cover changes during the Holocene in Earth system model experiments

Author: S. P. Harrison, M.-J. Gaillard, B. D. Stocker, M. Vander Linden, K. Klein Goldewijk, O. Boles, P. Braconnot, A. Dawson, E. Fluet-Chouinard, J. O. Kaplan, T. Kastner, F. S. R. Pausata, E. Robinson, N. J. Whitehouse, M. Madella, K. D. Morrison, University of Bristol [Bristol], Department of Biology and Environmental Sciences [Oldenburg], University of Oldenburg, Centre for Ecological Research and Forestry Applications (CREAF), University of Cambridge [UK] (CAM), PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, University of Pennsylvania Museum of Archaeology and Anthropology (Penn Museum), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Modelling the Earth Response to Multiple Anthropogenic Interactions and Dynamics (MERMAID), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Department of Earth System Science [Stanford] (ESS), Stanford EARTH, Stanford University-Stanford University, Department of Earth Sciences [Hong kong], The University of Hong Kong (HKU), Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre (SBiK-F), Goethe-Universität Frankfurt am Main-Senckenberg – Leibniz Institution for Biodiversity and Earth System Research - Senckenberg Gesellschaft für Naturforschung, Leibniz Association-Leibniz Association, Centre ESCER, Université du Québec à Montréal = University of Québec in Montréal (UQAM), University of Wyoming, School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences [Plymouth] (SoGEES), Plymouth University, Institució Catalana de Recerca i Estudis Avançats (ICREA), Department of Archaeology and Anthropology, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK, Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), and Environmental Sciences
Subjects: [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, 010506 paleontology, education.field_of_study, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Land use, Global climate, Population, lcsh:QE1-996.5, Land cover, 15. Life on land, Arqueologia, 01 natural sciences, Carbon cycle, lcsh:Geology, Ice core, 13. Climate action, Sòl, Ús del, Environmental science, Earth system model, Physical geography, education, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, Holocene, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, ddc:910
Abstract: International audience; Anthropogenic changes in land use and land cover (LULC) during the pre-industrial Holocene could have affected regional and global climate. Existing scenarios of LULC changes during the Holocene are based on relatively simple assumptions and highly uncertain estimates of population changes through time. Archaeological and palaeoenvironmental reconstructions have the potential to refine these assumptions and estimates. The Past Global Changes (PAGES) LandCover6k initiative is working towards improved reconstructions of LULC globally. In this paper, we document the types of archaeological data that are being collated and how they will be used to improve LULC reconstructions. Given the large methodological uncertainties involved, both in reconstructing LULC from the archaeological data and in implementing these reconstructions into global scenarios of LULC, we propose a protocol to evaluate Published by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union. 806 S. P. Harrison et al.: Development and testing scenarios for implementing land use and land cover changes the revised scenarios using independent pollen-based reconstructions of land cover and climate. Further evaluation of the revised scenarios involves carbon cycle model simulations to determine whether the LULC reconstructions are consistent with constraints provided by ice core records of CO 2 evolution and modern-day LULC. Finally, the protocol outlines how the improved LULC reconstructions will be used in palaeoclimate simulations in the Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project to quantify the magnitude of anthro-pogenic impacts on climate through time and ultimately to improve the realism of Holocene climate simulations.
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