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This report aims at detailing the territorial diversities of ageing across the EU, understanding the main drivers behind such differences and explore their relations with data on access to services and amenities, regional economic performance, political attitudes and behaviours., JRC.E.6-Demography, Migration and Governance

This report is an initiative of the Joint Research Centre (JRC), the science and knowledge service of the European Commission (EC), and supported by the Commission's Directorate-General for Regional and Urban Policy (DG REGIO). It highlights drivers shaping the urban future, identifying both the key challenges cities will have to address and the strengths they can capitalise on to proactively build their desired futures. The main aim of this report is to raise open questions and steer discussions on what the future of cities can, and should be, both within the science and policymaker communities. While addressing mainly European cities, examples from other world regions are also given since many challenges and solutions have a global relevance. The report is particularly novel in two ways. First, it was developed in an inclusive manner – close collaboration with the EC’s Community of Practice on Cities (CoP-CITIES) provided insights from the broader research community and city networks, including individual municipalities, as well as Commission services and international organisations. It was also extensively reviewed by an Editorial Board. Secondly, the report is supported by an online ‘living’ platform which will host future updates, including additional analyses, discussions, case studies, comments and interactive maps that go beyond the scope of the current version of the report. Steered by the JRC, the platform will offer a permanent virtual space to the research, practice and policymaking community for sharing and accumulating knowledge on the future of cities. This report is produced in the framework of the EC Knowledge Centre for Territorial Policies and is part of a wider series of flagship Science for Policy reports by the JRC, investigating future perspectives concerning Artificial Intelligence, the Future of Road Transport, Resilience, Cybersecurity and Fairness Interactive online platform : https://urban.jrc.ec.europa.eu/thefutureofcities, JRC.B.3-Territorial Development

The current analysis aims to highlight selected key territorial facts and trends in the EU rural areas at pan-European, national (NUTS 0) and regional (NUTS 3) level within 2015-2030. These trends are related to the status and potential evolution of rural population, agricultural land and agricultural land abandonment, as well as to their macro-economic aggregation into agriculture-driven clusters. A snapshot of employment and gross value added in agriculture by 2015 is provided, too. The analysis is performed by applying the LUISA Territorial Modelling Platform of the European Commissions' Joint Research Centre and in particular - its latest Territorial Reference Scenario 2017., JRC.B.3-Territorial Development

The land use changes of the LUISA Territorial Reference Scenario (TRS) 2017 with the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) option were evaluated for changes in soil organic C-stocks and subsequent emissions and removals of CO2. The procedure applied follows the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for a Tier 1 method and is implemented as a spatial application in a GIS to conform to Approach 3. The TRS scenario data from LUISA was processed under two suppositions, one treating the scenario data as a continuation of the previously processed statistical data (historic period) and a second that directly processed the scenario data. Another processing option evaluated was the treatment of a mixed class in the scenario data. Under all processing options the TRS scenario data continues the trend in soil organic C-stocks from the historic period. Soil organic C-stocks in mineral soils continue to increase, albeit with a decrease in the annual rate of accumulation after 2020. Under the TRS-CAP scenario soil organic carbon stocks are approx. 0.6% higher than in 2005, which corresponds to a removal of 628 Mt CO2 until 2030. Emissions from managed organic soils remain notably higher than removals on mineral soils, but with higher uncertainty of estimates. An evaluation of an option without CAP pointed to a 0.1% higher accumulation of soil organic carbon in most regions than under the CAP in 2030. However, it should be noted that this evaluation did not take any supporting measures of the CAP for of management practices and input levels into account that are designed to increase soil organic carbon stocks., JRC.D.3-Land Resources

This report describes all the changes done to the LUISA modelling approach in the development of the LUISA Territorial Reference Scenario 2017. Key changes are updates to the base year (now 2012), and updates to the macro and meso-level sectoral projections on demography, economy and agriculture that partially drive the model. Furthermore, the Territorial Reference Scenario 2017 is the first to benefit from a new approach for modelling interactions between land function and land cover, a Net Present Value approach for modelling land-use changes, an overhaul of the way land abandonment is modelled, and the inclusion of a new dynamic sub-model for regional residential density change. Many model inputs have been added or modified. Lastly, new quality checks and many usability changes ensure model consistency and make operating the model easier., JRC.B.3-Territorial Development

This report presents the outcome of a study carried out in the frame of a wider assessment performed with the LUISA (Land Use-based Integrated Sustainability Assessment) modelling platform, configured in compliance with the “EU Energy, Transport and GHG emissions trends until 2050” (EU Energy Reference Scenario 2013). A new methodology has been implemented to estimate and map water requirements for energy production in Europe. In this study, the category of dedicated energy crops (ENCR) played an important role. These crops are expected to emerge as additional fuel sources within the EU28 by 2020. Water requirements in the remaining energy sectors have also been estimated in order to assess whether the introduction of these ENCR may, in any way, compete with the existing water requirements for energy production. More specifically, the study tackles the following questions: • Where and to what extent will there be potential competition with cooling water required for electricity generation related to the introduction of these crops? • How will these trends evolve over time? • How will the introduction of energy crops affect the overall water consumption trends in Europe? The analysis indicates that high irrigation requirements for ENCR are foreseen in France, Poland, Spain, eastern Germany, and regions of Italy and the UK. Substantial increases in requirements are seen for several regions from 2020 to 2030. ENCR are absent in Finland, Denmark, Greece, Malta, Cyprus and Croatia for the whole simulation period. Water consumption for cooling in electricity production has been quantified for the years 2020 and 2030 for 2 scenarios with a minimum and a maximum value. There is notable variation in overall water consumption, both over time and between the scenarios. There is an increase in cooling water consumption for most regions in both scenarios over the period 2020 to 2030, which is especially high in France for the minimum scenario. The values given by the two scenarios vary greatly due to the wide range in water consumption between the different cooling technologies assumed in the two cases. In some regions there is even up to a factor 10 difference in total consumption for cooling. As for any modelling exercise, the study presents a level of uncertainty due to the number of external models giving input and to the assumptions made. In the case of the cooling water mapping, a possible range of minimum/maximum values has been used to reflect the large variation due to the type of cooling system used by each power plant. For the energy crop water requirements we relied on estimates found in the literature. Nevertheless, the study presents an overall continental scale analysis of the potential impacts of the 2013 Energy Reference scenario, covering many of the involved sectors and provides the framework for further refinements and improvements., JRC.B.3-Territorial Development

This report presents a comprehensive analysis of dedicated energy crops (ENCR) performed with the LUISA (Land Use-based Integrated Sustainability Assessment) modelling platform across Europe between 2020 and 2050. LUISA is configured in compliance with the “EU Energy, Transport and GHG emissions trends until 2050” document in order to ensure that the EU meet its climate and energy targets up to 2050 (EU Reference Scenario 2013, updated LUISA configuration 2014). The spatial modelling of ENCR in LUISA requires determining a set of elements such as the land demand, availability and suitability of the land, and other land categories for the ENCR cultivation. Thus, the assessment is focused on the following steps: 1) Land accounts and dominant land use/cover flows for the expansion of energy crops at European scale, 2) A suitability analysis of the land dedicated to these crops based on suitability maps, 3) Recuperation of degraded and contaminated lands for energy purpose, 4) A detailed regional analysis per each Member State (factsheets) with a summary of the main important findings, and 5) Evaluation of energy crops’ impacts on a selection of environmental indicators (provision of ecosystem services). In LUISA, the displacement and cultivation of crops solely dedicated to energy production takes place on a specific land-use class named ‘energy crop’ (ENCR), which competes in particular with the demand for others land-uses, such as for food, feed and forest. The amount of ENCR reaches about 13,549 kha in 2050 that represents, on average, 3.6% of Europe’s total available land. This expansion occurs mainly at expenses of land for food and feed (90%). Forest and natural land (9% and 1%,) represent respectively the second and third land flows towards ENCR among total land-use changes (with these flows represented respectively 9 and 1% of all land use changes). As result of this land competition, there is an increasing shift of food and feed crops towards low quality land, due not only to the ENCR expansion but also to the growth of residential and economic-driven land uses. It should also be noted that intensive agriculture practices for ENCR production might have some negative impacts on soil, water, biodiversity, amongst others. Owing to this potential impacts, the analysis performed on the supply of a set of ecosystem services identifies some services more sensitive than others to ENCR growth. In particular, pollination potential, habitat quality for birds and also the Green-Infrastructure network are expected to decrease due to ENCR growth, while patterns for recreational opportunities and water retention services are less evident., JRC.H.8-Sustainability Assessment

Since land is a finite resource, the competition for land among different uses has become a real problem. Competition for land takes place when different alternative uses (such as agriculture, forestry, energy or/and natural conservation) are competing for the same piece of land. When the competition for land is highly intense in a given territory, a specific land use/cover might cause the displacement of another one, leading to land-use conversion and, potential negative environmental, economic and social impacts. In the long term, this exacerbated competition might increase the pressure on the land and the impacts on the land capacity to support ecosystems and productive systems. Methodologies and tools to assess the potential impacts of bioenergy development in the EU on land uses and functions provide useful insight to shed light on the environmental impacts of energy policies. The territorial assessment carried out by the Land Use-based Sustainability Assessment (LUISA) modelling platform highlights where in Europe the current macro-economic trends and energy policy targets might pose a threat to our land resources in the mid to long term. This might happen, for instance, in regions where the demand for energy crops and the need for residential and industry/commerce/services functions, is forecasted to increase. Essential land uses, such as agriculture for food and feed production, could therefore be transferred to less suitable lands at a regional or local scale. The herein report explores in detail the land uses that are expected to be in direct competition for land (food, feed and energy) as a result of the EU bioenergy targets and considering the suitability characteristics of the land for these uses. The analysis is carried out per main crop group (cereals, maize, root crops, other arable crops and energy crops), as simulated by the LUISA modelling platform. The results presented highlight where and how the displacement of food and feed crops from highly suitable land to lower levels of suitability can be caused by different drivers, among which the expansion of built-up areas and dedicated energy crops. In summary, the majority of cereal, maize and root crops in Europe are allocated on land classified as highly suitable (according to local biophysical conditions, possible fertiliser input and current cropping patterns) between 2020 and 2050. However, the amount of land cultivated with food crops (cereal, maize and root crop production) is shown to experience a substantial decrease in the majority of the MSs, on average higher than 10% across the entire simulation period. On the opposite, energy crop production increases at fast pace, at times doubling the amount of allocated land from the year 2020, when they first appears in the modelling, to 2050. Due to the growth of residential and ICS (industry, commercial and services) sites, land highly suitable for the cultivation of food crops and non-food crops is increasingly being used for artificial uses. In general terms, growing crops on highly suitable land results in a cost reduction associated to inputs use, such as fertilizers, pesticides and water. However, as result of the competition, there is – in several areas in Europa - an increasing shift towards low quality land for growing food and feed crops, with environmental and economic impacts to be carefully evaluated., JRC.H.8-Sustainability Assessment

Cities and towns are at the core of the European economy but they are often also the places where problems related to the quality of life of citizens such as unemployment, segregation and poverty are most evident. To curtail the negative impacts and foster the positive effects of ongoing urban processes in Europe, policies have to be adjusted and harmonised to accommodate future urbanization trends. Such an analysis of the evolution of European cities requires the evaluation of impacts of continent-wide drivers and, at the same time, assessment of the effect of national and local strategies. As a contribution to this analysis of the current and future evolution of European territories (countries, macro-regions, regions or urban areas), the Directorate-General Joint Research Centre (DG JRC) of the European Commission (EC) has developed the Land-Use-based Integrated Sustainability Assessment (LUISA) Modelling Platform. Based on the concept of ‘dynamic land functions’, LUISA has adopted a novel approach towards activity-based modelling and endogenous dynamic allocation of population, services and activities. This report illustrates how European cities could potentially evolve over the time period 2010-2050, according to the reference configuration of the LUISA modelling platform, on the basis of a collection of spatial indicators covering several thematic fields. These spatial indicators aim to improve our understanding of urbanization and urban development processes in Europe; explore territorial dimensions of projected demographic and economic changes, and finally examine some key challenges that urban areas are or may be exposed to. Some of the key findings of this report are given below: - The proportion of the population living in cities, towns and suburbs is higher in the EU than in the rest of the world. According to the LUISA forecasts, the urban proportion will continue to increase up to 2030; subsequently slow down, and reach a relatively steady state by 2050. - In 2010, 65% of the EU population were living in Functional Urban Areas (FUA, the city and its commuting zone). This figure is expected to reach 70% by 2050. The total EU-28 population is expected to grow by 4.6%. Most of this population growth will occur particularly in FUA which will grow by an average 14%. - As of 2010, the amount of artificial areas per inhabitant in the EU-28 was estimated as 498 m2: it becomes 539 m2 in 2050 with an 8% increase. Although there is not a unique spatial pattern, land take tends to start peak at 5 km distance from the city centre. This is due to the fact that land is often less available for development within city centres and that the majority of land take therefore will occur firstly in the suburbs and then in rural areas. - By 2050, potential accessibility – as measure of economic opportunities - will be higher in the urban areas of north-western Europe, while it will not improve in lagging European regions. Urban form has a considerable impact on average travelled distances and thus potentially on the energy dependence of transport. - Green infrastructure is mainly located at the periphery of urban areas. Its share per person is generally low or very low in most of the European cities, with few exceptions. Green infrastructure per capita in FUA shows a general trend towards a decrease across the EU-28 (by approximately 13%) between 2010 and 2050. - Larger cities tend to have higher average flood risk, especially due to the higher sensitivity in terms of potential human and physical losses. The analysis herein presented is part of a wider initiative of DG JRC and DG REGIO aiming to improve the management of knowledge and sharing of information related to territorial policies, such as those concerning urban development. In this framework, the work will be further developed, covering the following main elements: - Development of the European Urban Data Platform, providing a single access point for data and indicators on the status and trends of European urban areas; - Updates of the LUISA configuration, to account for new socio-economic projections; - Support to the development of the EU Urban Agenda and related initiatives; - Provision of evidence-based support for the evaluation of territorial policies in particular to proof the role of cities in the implementation of EU priorities., JRC.H.8-Sustainability Assessment

The concept of ‘dynamic land function’ is a new notion for cross-sector integration and for the representation of complex system dynamics. A land function can be societal (e.g. provision of housing, leisure and recreation), economic (e.g. provision of production factors - employment, investments, energy – or provision of manufacturing products and services – food, fuels, consumer goods, etc.) or environmental (e.g. supply of ecosystem services). Land functions are temporally and spatially dynamic, and are constrained and driven by natural, socio-economic, and techno-economic processes. Based on the concept of ‘land function’ and beyond a traditional land use model, the Land-Use based Integrated Sustainability Assessment (LUISA) modelling platform adopts a new approach towards activity-based modelling based upon the endogenous dynamic allocation of population, services and activities. The ultimate product of LUISA is a set of territorial indicators that can be grouped and combined according to the ‘land function’ of interest and/or to the sector under assessment. The herein presented indicators measure the provision of land functions in the period 2010-2050, according to the EU Reference Scenario (LUISA, updated configuration 2014), consistent with settings (economic and demographic in particular) and policies in place in 2013 (hence including the 2020 renewable energy targets). The indicators are aggregated by Member States and Regions (Administrative Units NUTS-2) and can be employed as benchmark to monitor sectorial and territorial evolutions of alternative scenarios (e.g. to simulate policy options or specific measures), and for future updates of the reference scenario, to capture policy impacts (for example when changing energy targets) and their territorial effects. This catalogue aims to provide the description of the land functions and the list of related indicators and an indicator factsheet (metadata). 30 indicators, out of the more than 50 currently produced by LUISA, are included in the first release of the catalogue. The catalogue is periodically up-dated, following the updates of the configurations of the LUISA modelling platform and the definition, computation and validation of new indicators. Indicators and basic spatial layers used for the simulations will be made available in the frame of the framework for the management of knowledge and dissemination of information being set up by the Pilot Knowledge Centre on Territorial Policies., JRC.H.8-Sustainability Assessment

The ‘Land-Use-based Integrated Sustainability Assessment’ modelling platform (LUISA) is primarily used for the ex-ante evaluation of EC policies that have a direct or indirect territorial impact. It is based on the concept of ‘land function’ for cross-sector integration and for the representation of complex system dynamics. Beyond a traditional land use model, LUISA adopts a new approach towards activity-based modelling based upon the endogenous dynamic allocation of population, services and activities. LUISA has been applied to address the competition for land arising from the energy, transport and climate dimensions of EU policies and configured according to the EU Energy Reference scenario 2013 (updated configuration 2014) to produce high-resolution land use/cover projections up to 2050 and a related series of thematic indicators. This report describes the stocks and the main land cover/use flows (LCF) taking place in Europe in the period 2010-2050 and the processes that cause those flows, thus providing insight on how the European landscape might change if the future happens according to a reference scenario consistent with settings (economic and demographic in particular) and policies in place in 2013 (hence including in particular the 2020 renewable energy targets). Main findings: • The extent of the land for housing and leisure (urban) and industrial/commercial and services (ICS) increases, while the area of agriculture, forest and natural land decreases; • Urban and industrial land are expected to represent the highest share of net formation as % of the initial year (2010); • Energy crops appear in the model as of 2020 and are expected to reach 135,479 km2 across Europe in 2050; • Energy crops become the second most important land transformation in Europe (17%); approximately 90 % of the land consumed for energy purposes comes from land for food and feed, followed by forest and natural land; • While a large proportion of land dedicated to food and feed crops is expected to be converted into dedicated energy crops, the net land losses are very small as a results of the conversion from forest land into food and feed production; • New forest and natural land compensate in some way for quantity of losses or consumption by other uses; however the high value of the turnover indicator, reveal that those land-uses are unstable and vulnerable to the fast changes driven by economic development and climate changes, thus compromising the biodiversity and habitat conservation status; • The conversion between farming types represent 35% over the total land changes between 2010 and 2050; The results show the loss of natural and agricultural land because of ever-ongoing urbanisation and industrialization processes. The loss of natural and agricultural land for food production is even larger because of the advent of energy crops production incited by shifts in the European Energy supply system., JRC.H.8-Sustainability Assessment

The impacts of current and planned policy initiatives can be simulated by using modelling tools and indicators, which help determine the effectiveness of policies in attaining targets. The Land Use-based Integrated Sustainability Assessment (LUISA) modelling platform was configured to assess the spatial impact of the “EU Energy Reference scenario 2013” on the efficient use of natural resources in the EU-28 in a short time period (2010-2020) and in a long term vision (2010-2050). A set of Resource Efficiency (RE) indicators were computed to measure [1] the progress towards the efficient use of land and water as a resource and [2] the performance on the actions and milestones on natural capital and ecosystems proposed in the RE roadmap, in particular biodiversity, safeguarding clean air, and land and soils. The modelling results show that by 2050: [1] the share of built-up area in the EU-28 will increase by 1%; [2] the EU-28 will use the land less efficiently; [3] the water productivity is expected to increase on average 8%; [4] the landscape fragmentation in the EU-28 will show no significant changes [5] and the PM10 concentrations in urban air and population exposed will remain constant., JRC.H.8-Sustainability Assessment

The main purpose of this document is twofold. On the one hand, the land demands, methods and preliminary findings, especially in terms of forest and agricultural land, for the production of food, feed and energy are fully described. The modelling exercise is developed for the Updated Reference Configuration 2014 of the LUISA (Land Use Integrated Sustainability Assessment) modelling platform for the period 2010-2050. On the other hand, a brief description of how LUISA is configured in order to be consistent with macro-economic models within the integrated modelling chain, including the incorporation of the legally binding objectives, directives and regulations is also included in this document., JRC.H.8-Sustainability Assessment

The LUISA land-use modelling framework is used routinely for integrated sustainability assessments of EC policies.. All policy impacts are assessed by comparing policy scenario model results with a reference scenario. This reference scenario is frequently updated to take into account new developments in land-use modelling practice, and to take into account new projections offered by the various sectoral models that supply information to LUISA. This report details all changes made in 2014 as updates to the EU Reference scenario 2013 with regard to land-use claims and the LUISA spatial allocation mechanism. Finally, new developments related to the reporting and visualization of LUISA model results are highlighted., JRC.H.8-Sustainability Assessment

The European Union is committed, through the Cohesion Policy, to contribute to a sustainable economic, social and territorial cohesion by reducing disparities between the levels of development of regions and countries of its member states. The EU's main investment policy is also responsible for mainstreaming the environment into its programmes and projects. The Land Use-based Integrated Sustainability Assessment Platform (LUISA) was parameterized according to a ‘Reference Scenario 2014’ to assess the spatial impact of regional and urban policy in Europe. In order to show the impacts of EU policies included in the Reference Scenario, a set of indicators were computed to measure [1] land use intensity and the urban sprawl and [2] the implication of this policy on accessibility in the EU regions. The modelling results indicated that in spite of important regional differences, the overall land use intensity will decline. The Reference Scenario also shows a general increase in urban sprawl across Europe most significantly in the main EU capital cities., JRC.H.8-Sustainability Assessment

The Cohesion policy for the programming period 2014-2020 is analyzed in terms of its likely land use and environmental impacts using the Land Use Modelling Platform (LUMP). This report describes in detail the process and the methodology by which the ex-ante impact assessment was made, and presents the results for Austria, Czech Republic, Germany, and Poland. The modelling approach can provide insights on the trade-offs between economic growth, investment policies (such as the Cohesion policy), and land use and the environment. In addition, ways to mitigate potentially negative land use and environmental impacts were explored. The future development of the LUMP is discussed in view of planned future work., JRC.H.8-Sustainability Assessment

The definition of the Reference Scenario, given in the Energy Trends to 2030 publication by DG ENER (2009 update ), assumes full implementation of the Climate and Energy package. The legislation included within the Climate and Energy Package is reflective of the legally binding targets to ensure that the EU meets its climate and energy targets for 2020. This scenario assumes that national targets under the Renewables directive (2009/28/EC) and the GHG Effort-sharing decision (2009/406/EC) are achieved. The Reference scenario is one of three energy trends scenarios, used so far for the Energy 2050 Roadmap Impact assessment . The scenarios are derived with the PRIMES model by a consortium led by the National Technical University of Athens (E3MLab). The PRIMES model is key to the definition of the scenarios because of its energy focus. The Reference Scenario itself is derived within PRIMES and is supported by other specialised models downstream. The purpose of this document is to describe how the LUMP was configured in order to be consistent with the PRIMES and other upstream models within the integrated modelling chain, including the incorporation of the legally binding objectives, directives and guidelines. In order to be coherent with the IA accompanying the Communication on the Energy Roadmap 2050, new policies adopted up until March 2010 were implemented in so far as possible. The implementation has not yet been finalized and this document will be refreshed and re-distributed in its final form once the Reference Scenario has been fully configured., JRC.H.8-Sustainability Assessment