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The Polish power system has been reducing its impact on the environment for a long time, mainly through modernization and investments in new generation capacities, including renewable energy technologies. However, its starting point is still more difficult compared to other less coal-dependent power systems in the European Union. The study was conducted in the direction of optimizing the Polish energy mix of electricity generation from the perspective of 2050. Two energy scenarios for the possible transformation of the Polish power system towards achieving at least a 95% reduction in CO2 emissions by 2050 with an increasing share of renewables were analyzed. The study was carried out with the use of the TIMES-PL model, which minimizes the total system cost over the analyzed time horizon. The model was calibrated according to data from 2018. The two scenarios show relatively similar pathways for CO2 emission reductions by 2050. In the case of no investment in nuclear power plants, power plants equipped with CO2 capture and storage systems are an alternative solution for achieving climate neutrality and increasing national energy security. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The achievement of carbon neutrality requires a deep transformation of the Polish power sector. This paper analyses the impact of increased electricity generation from wind and solar technologies envisaged in the newest version of the Energy Policy of Poland until 2040 on the operation of dispatchable generators in 2030. The analysis was carried out using the Model of Economic Dispatch and Unit commitment for System Analysis (MEDUSA) model, which solves a mixed integer problem related to unit commitment and economic dispatch in electrical power production. At first, the model was validated based on the real operation data from 2018. Next, five scenarios were built to analyse the operation of the system in 2030. The overall result of the study is that the safest solution from the point of view of power system stability is to extend the decommissioning of coal units of 200 and 300 MW classes, to invest in renewable energy sources (RES) according to the energy policy, to build new gas power plants with the total capacity of ca. 4 GW, and to enforce Demand Side Management (DSM) programs for shifting the electrical load. The proposed framework for the optimization of power system planning helps to avoid wrong investment decisions that would have a negative impact on energy prices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Offshore wind energy is becoming an increasingly important element in the decarbonisation of energy systems. This study aims to estimate the technical potential for offshore wind energy in the Polish exclusive economic zone (EZZ) of the Baltic Sea. Such estimates are necessary to plan the expansion of energy infrastructure. This paper proposes a multi-criteria analysis for the estimation of offshore wind potential and site selection using QGIS software (QGIS Desktop 3.28.6). The criteria include wind velocity, water depth, distance from nature conservation areas, distance from submarine cables and gas pipelines, distance from shipping routes, distance from fishing areas, distance from shipwrecks, and distance from the coastline. The best sites are identified through the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). The results show that the total suitable marine area of 16,218.67 square kilometres can be divided into three parts, in which the highly suitable area for offshore wind farms accounts for 17.55%, the moderately suitable area accounts for 48.56%, and the marginally suitable area accounts for 10.26%. Two different wind turbine placement configurations are being considered, in which wind turbines with a nominal capacity of 15 MW are laid out: 2.5 km and 2 km apart from each other. The corresponding overall electrical capacities only in highly suitable areas equal ca. 9 GW and 15 GW, respectively. If this area is extended to also include the moderately suitable parts, these values increase to ca. 31 GW and 50 GW. The results indicate that the technical potential of offshore wind in the Polish EEZ is significant and should be taken into account when designing the future electricity generation mix. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Transformation towards climate-neutral energy systems is becoming a challenge worldwide. Most often, strategic planning for the mid- and long-term is tackled with the use of generation expansion optimization models, which have limited capabilities to track in detail power system operation. On the other hand, the unit commitment and economic dispatch models consider many technical constraints but are usually used for short-term planning. The methodological approach presented in this paper aims to improve the planning capabilities by the combination of generation expansion and short-term planning models into one modelling system. Two models were coupled, namely TIMES-PL and MEDUSA, to design a pathway to carbon neutrality in the Polish power system. Three energy scenarios elaborated in this work show that a 95 % reduction in carbon dioxide emissions from the public electricity and district heat production sectors is possible by 2050. The proposed approach improved the robustness of elaborated energy scenarios as in their first versions two of them turned out to be technically infeasible. Detail simulations of the system operation showed that load balancing is possible once 15–20 GW of electrical capacity is installed in dispatchable power generation technologies by 2050 in addition to energy storage and combined heat and power plants. • Generation expansion and operation planning models were coupled. • Scenarios toward carbon neutrality in a Polish coal-based power system were built. • Ignoring technical constraints leads to underestimating system's need for flexibility. • Model coupling improves the robustness of elaborated long-term energy scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The use of fossil fuels, which still dominate global primary energy consumption, results not only in emissions of greenhouse gas but also in emissions of pollutants such as SO2, NOx, and PM. Damage caused by air pollution can be expressed in monetary terms in the form of external costs to society. The goal of this paper is to answer the following questions: How much will the energy sector's emissions change as a result of decarbonization? What is the estimated level of external costs related to human health in future energy scenarios? How large are the estimated external costs compared to the planned investments in this sector? The study conducted for the period 2018–2050 used the impact pathway approach and covered the centralized power and heat generation sector in Poland. The reported values of the concentration–response functions that relate human exposure to air pollution with health impact were reviewed. The results show that external costs decrease from an estimated annual level in the range of EUR 782–1911 million in 2018 to EUR 36–876 million in 2050. The cumulative value of avoided external costs between 2018 and 2050 is significantly lower than the planned capital expenditures in the energy sector in Poland. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The methodology of external cost calculations has been continuously developed. Still, due to lack of sufficient data and imperfect analytical tools, one can give only some estimates rather than precise results. The impact of primary pollutants is dominating in the local domain. The secondary pollutants are negligible in the local domain; however, they have a strong impact in the regional domain. The impacts of primary and secondary pollutants were estimated with the best URBAN algorithm and SUWM formulation, respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Our paper presents the results of the integrated assessment modelling of environmental and human health impacts of emissions in Poland. The analysis was performed based on the so-called National Scenario. The estimated emission levels of SO2, NOx, and PMs for 2020 were used as the input data to model ambient concentrations and depositions of these pollutants. Exceedances of critical loads of acidity caused by nitrogen and sulphur depositions were calculated. External costs associated with human health impacts of air pollution were estimated. Additionally, ambient concentration of gaseous and particulate Hg were modelled based on 2005 EMEP emissions data. The main part of the analysis was carried out using the Eulerian Chemistry Transport Model POLAIR3D. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Poland faces two great challenges in the field of environment and atmosphere protection: improving air quality, especially by reducing particulate matter (PM) emissions, and reducing relatively high greenhouse gas emissions. The aim of this research was to investigate how the fuel and technological transformations in the power, road transport, and household and tertiary sectors aimed at reducing carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions in Poland would affect air quality, human health, and the associated external costs. The study was conducted for 2050 while considering 2015 as the base year. Ambient PM2.5 (particles with a diameter of less than 2.5 µm) concentration was used as a proxy air quality indicator. The analysis was based on decarbonization scenarios developed within the REFLEX Project (Analysis of the European energy system under the aspects of flexibility and technological progress). The three scenarios of the REFLEX Project focused on the reduction of CO2 emissions up to 2050 from various sectors, mainly by the means of fuel and technological switches. This also led to the changes in the emission levels of pollutants that directly affect air quality, which were calculated with the use of fuel- and technology-specific emission factors. Next, for each emission scenario, ambient concentrations of PM2.5 and others pollutants were calculated with the use of the Polyphemus—an Eulerian-type air quality modelling system. Subsequently, the health impact of population exposed to air pollution and associated external costs were calculated using the πESA (Platform for Integrated Energy System Analysis) platform. The health impacts considered were the number of years of life lost, restricted activity days, and number of chronic bronchitis cases. The results showed that the largest reductions in both greenhouse gas and PM emissions—and consequently improvements of air quality resulting in a decrease of negative impacts on human health and a decrease of external costs—can be achieved by the transformation of heat production in the household and tertiary sector. The results also showed that the decrease in PM2.5 emissions envisaged in the analyzed scenarios in 2050 will lead to a reduction in the number of lost years of life by about 35 thousand and an avoidance of external costs by EUR 2.4 billion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]