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Societal Impact Statement: As the world is facing a climate crisis and a growing population, feeding this population is a big challenge. Genebanks, conserving and providing access to genetic resources, and plant breeders, using genetic resources from genebanks to create new varieties, play important roles in meeting this challenge. Before making decisions potentially restricting access to digital sequence information (DSI) on genetic resources, it is therefore important to consider the impact of the decisions on the activities of these actors. In this paper, an analysis is made of DSI definitions and access and benefit‐sharing scenarios in the context of their consequences for genebank management. Summary: It is currently discussed whether the use of digital sequence information (DSI) on genetic resources would need to be subject to access and benefit‐sharing obligations, like the use of genetic resources. In this paper, we analyse the consequences of genebank management of DSI definitions currently considered, and of scenarios proposed for dealing with the access and benefit‐sharing aspects of DSI. The analysis is based on publicly accessible literature and experiences of and discussions with genebank managers, researchers and experts on genetic resources policies. The key findings are as follows: the definition of DSI is still disputed and definitions currently considered vary from only the base sequence of genomic DNA to all information associated with genetic resources;four groups of scenarios proposed for arranging the access and benefit‐sharing aspects of DSI can be distinguished, with these scenarios differing in their benefit‐sharing modalities, technical feasibility, the complexity they generate and thus the ease of access to information and genetic resources;from a genebank perspective, the scenario generating the lowest complexity and the easiest access to DSI would be preferable. It is concluded that the multilateral and the free access scenarios seem most beneficial for genebanks, as these scenarios limit the complexity for users and allow easy access and use. We are aware of the political difficulties to arrive at these solutions, but hope this paper will contribute to guiding the discussions in a direction that will be beneficial for genebanks, for users of genebank materials and information, and ultimately for addressing the challenges to present and future food security. As the world is facing a climate crisis and a growing population, feeding this population is a big challenge. Genebanks, conserving and providing access to genetic resources, and plant breeders, using genetic resources from genebanks to create new varieties, play important roles in meeting this challenge. Before making decisions potentially restricting access to digital sequence information (DSI) on genetic resources, it is therefore important to consider the impact of the decisions on the activities of these actors. In this paper, an analysis is made of DSI definitions and access and benefit‐sharing scenarios in the context of their consequences for genebank management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An estimated 90 to 95% of Indigenous people in Amazonia died after European contact. This population collapse is postulated to have caused decreases in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations at around 1610 CE, as a result of a wave of land abandonment in the wake of disease, slavery, and warfare, whereby the attendant reversion to forest substantially increased terrestrial carbon sequestration. On the basis of 39 Amazonian fossil pollen records, we show that there was no synchronous reforestation event associated with such an atmospheric carbon dioxide response after European arrival in Amazonia. Instead, we find that, at most sites, land abandonment and forest regrowth began about 300 to 600 years before European arrival. Pre-European pandemics, social strife, or environmental change may have contributed to these early site abandonments and ecological shifts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract This study describe and quantifier the effects of a virtual ammonia release accident from tanks in the industrial area of Matanzas on the population and the environment. Climate data of the study area were characterized using the Areal Locations of Hazardous Atmospheres (ALOHA) software which entails different scenarios. Predictions for three of them include: "Toxic Vapor Cloud", "Flammable Area" and "Vapor Cloud Explosion". The results show that the worse scenario is the toxic cloud of ammonia affecting a vast area with a dense population and causing environmental damage. Under this scenario 294 casualties should be expected. Graphical abstract Image 108746 Highlights • In the area under study, N-E winds are predominant. • The most impacting scenario for a possible ammonia release is the toxic vapor cloud. • Probit equations allow estimating possible human health damage in case of ammonia release. • An ammonia incident may cause an estimated 294 casualties in the affected areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Graphical abstract Highlights • Models of obligate mutualism that use explicit resources produce realistic results. • Obligate mutualist heterotrophs may coexist in stable equilibrium. • Models of obligate mutualism that use carrying capacity produce unrealistic results. • Explicit resources fix the deficiencies of models that use carrying capacity. Abstract The concept of a carrying capacity of an environment for a population has been an effective way of introducing a connection between populations and their environment. This approach has been particularly effective in heuristic Lotka–Volterra models of competition and predation that provide a basis for theoretical considerations of population interactions. However, the concept has proved less useful for interactions such as mutualism. The textbook Lotka–Volterra model of mutualism represents the interaction between two populations at the same trophic level that are each limited by the (negative) carrying capacities of the environment. The model predicts that obligate mutualist populations will either go extinct or become infinite. The classical fail diagram of obligate mutualist population interactions can be remedied by explicitly accounting for resources. The inclusion of explicit connections to the environment through resource representation and accounting for each population shows that the equivalent of the classic fail diagram is actually a sensible solution. A resource-based modelling framework saves the Lotka–Volterra model, allowing the classic population interactions of competition, predation and mutualism to be considered in a single unified framework. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Louisiana lost nearly 5,000 km2 of its coastal land area due to relative sea level rise (including local, regional, and global factors driving relative sea level change) since 1932, mirroring both the hazards associated with sea level rise and the time horizons of sea level rise impacts expected this century. This represents an opportunity to examine the relationship between long-term population changes and shoreline change. Based on detailed land change data for the period 1932–2010 and a small area population estimation technique for the period 1940–2010, we examine intra-parish population changes in relation to shoreline changes for the one million plus residents living in the ten coastal parishes of Louisiana. We find that since 1940, only two of the ten coastal parishes exhibited landward population movement, which we define as movement perpendicular to the shoreline, exceeding 1 km. Three parishes exhibited seaward population movement in excess of 1 km. Overall, we find very little net intra-parish landward population movement for the region. Our findings suggest that coastal Louisiana's historical population has not moved in concert with observed shoreline encroachment. We also find a potential tipping point related to population migration when a neighborhood loses at least 50% of its land area. Our findings suggest that this lack of landward population movement could be attributable to either localized adaptation strategies or migrations to other landward areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Providers of municipal water supply services worldwide are facing pressure from climate change and increasing water demand due to growing populations and lifestyle changes. With finite global freshwater supplies, there is need for water service providers to consider water demand management as an option for closing the supply-demand gap. Several water utilities in the UK are implementing residential water efficiency initiatives, but to-date, the effectiveness of these programmes have not been comprehensively evaluated. The present study uses statistical analysis to evaluate the effectiveness of a domestic water efficiency programme, initiated by a major water supply company in South East England. Using multilevel regression, water consumption, weather and demographic data, the study analysed water savings achieved through the efficiency programme and defined the factors that affect a household's potential to save water. Analysis showed that households that participated in the programme reduced their per capita consumption by approximately 15%. Importantly, research findings provide strong evidence that single resident and financially stretched households have a bigger potential to conserve water than wealthier and larger households do. This study also highlights the robustness of multilevel analysis, even in cases of data limitations. The findings generate implications for policy and practice, which are useful for water companies involved in implementing water efficiency programmes, as well as their evaluation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Malting quality is an important determinant of the value of barley grain used in malting and brewing. With recent sequencing and assembling of the barley genome, an increasing number of quantitative trait loci (QTLs) and genes related to malting quality have been identified and cloned, which lays a good molecular genetic basis for barley quality improvement. In this review, we describe the following indicators of malting quality: malt extract (ME), diastatic power (DP), kolbach index (KI), wort viscosity (VIS), free amino nitrogen (FAN) content, soluble protein (SP) content, wort β-glucan (WBG) content, and protein content (PC), and have list related QTLs/genes with high phenotypic variation in multiple populations or environments. Meanwhile, the correlations among the quality parameters and parts of significant indicators suitable for improvement are discussed based on nutrient composition and content required for high-quality malt, which will provide reference for molecular marker-assisted selection (MAS) of malting quality in barley. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ixodid ticks are acknowledged as one of the most important hematophagous arthropods because of their ability in transmitting a variety of tick-borne diseases. Mathematical models have been developed, based on emerging knowledge about tick ecology, pathogen epidemiology and their interface, to understand tick population dynamics and tick-borne diseases spread patterns. However, no serious effort has been made to model and assess the impact of host immunity triggered by tick feeding on the distribution of the tick population according to tick stages and on tick population extinction and persistence. Here, we construct a novel mathematical model taking into account the effect of host immunity status on tick population dynamics, and analyze the long-term behaviours of the model solutions. Two threshold values, R 11 and R 22 , are introduced to measure the reproduction ratios for the tick-host interaction in the absence and presence of host immunity. We then show that these two thresholds (sometimes under additional conditions) can be used to predict whether the tick population goes extinct ( R 11 < 1 ) and the tick population grows without bound ( R 22 > 1 ). We also prove tick permanence (persistence and boundedness of the tick population) and the existence of a tick persistence equilibrium if R 22 < 1 < R 11 . As the host species adjust their immunity to tick infestation levels, they form for the tick population an environment with a carrying capacity very much like that in logistic growth. Numerical results show that the host immune reactions decrease the size of the tick population at equilibrium and apparently reduce the tick-borne infection risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This work has for objective to analyze the social, economic and environmental aspects of the population of rural communities of Chapada do Apodi/RN. For that, it was identified with the socioeconomic and environmental profile interviews of the population and, with the existing conflict interaction matrix in the study area. Contacted that the majority of the population have incomplete basic education, develops activities of agriculture and production of honey, providing family income of up to one minimum wage. It was social, economic and environmental conflicts between agribusiness and family agriculture. Therefore, in order to mitigate the problems investigated if necessary to develop environmental management guidelines. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tolerance, Technology and Talent indexes that are found in the literature and used to compare cities tend to focus more on economic and technologic progress. However, time is important, this paper presents a Life Expectancy Index (LEI) for the 40 OECD countries computed as a weighted average of three dimensions: population pyramid base (such as fertility, dependency, population, life expectancy per sex, birth and fertility rates), enterprise contamination (methane and nitrogenous gases population density) and civil contamination (deaths and greenhouse emissions) obtained in a factorial analysis, where the weights are calculated with the IRFs of the estimated VECM. The ranking of the countries provides policy-makers with a sense of where improvements might be targeted. For each timespan, 1970–2012, 2000–2012 and 2008–2012, Mexico, Korea and Israel are the countries where the index is higher while Sub-Sahara, Russia and Hungary are the ones where the index is lower. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Older people have an increasing share in the total population. Thus, the influence that they have in society is growing. A rapid increase in the share of the elderly population to the detriment of the young population may jeopardize a country's ability to provide adequate social protection for the elderly. Population aging is a challenge. It is necessary to take anticipatory measures to be prepared for the changes that involve this process. Thus, the article presents a comparative analysis of the current population situation and projection for the year 2030, with an emphasis on the elderly population segment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights • "Compact city" scenarios halt land take both under population growth or decline. • "Urban sprawl" scenarios promote land take both under population growth or decline. • Both "compact city" and "urban sprawl" show mixed effects on ecosystem services. • Definition of land take and spatial data used impact this type of assessments. Abstract Land use and land cover (LULC) changes, particularly land take by urbanization, can jeopardize ecosystems and their capacity to provide humans with numerous benefits, known as ecosystem services. A better understanding of the connections between land take, changes in complex LULC patterns and ecosystem services is still needed. Especially needed are forward-looking analyses that can support spatial planning in the face of targets like "no net land take," as set in Europe. The aim of this research is to gain insight into the possible consequences of alternative pathways of demographic and urban development, in terms of land take and ecosystem services supply. Using the Lisbon Metropolitan Area in Portugal as case study, four contrasting scenarios for 2030 were developed that cover major determinants of land take (with a focus on residential development) and priority ecosystem services for the region, as well as deal with climate regulation, recreation and food production. Our findings suggest that the effects of urban development on land take are positive for a "compact city" and negative for an "urban sprawl" pattern, even for opposite demographic developments (growth versus decline). However, each pattern can have both positive and negative effects on the supply of ecosystem services. Hence, tensions can exist between the "compact city" model of urban development and the provision of ecosystem services to urban dwellers, especially across planning levels. We argue that the way land take is defined can influence the outcome of this kind of assessment, depending on which LULC dataset is used to support it. Exploring the approach developed in this research with different stakeholders while adopting more extreme scenario assumptions can provide additional insights on the topic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Species, habitats, and ecosystems are increasingly exposed to multiple anthropogenic stressors, fueling a rapidly expanding research program to understand the cumulative impacts of these environmental modifications. Since the 1970s, a growing set of methods has been developed through two parallel, sometimes connected, streams of research within the applied and academic realms to assess cumulative effects. Past reviews of cumulative effects assessment (CEA) methods focused on approaches used by practitioners. Academic research has developed several distinct and novel approaches to conducting CEA. Understanding the suite of methods that exist will help practitioners and academics better address various ecological foci (physiological responses, population impacts, ecosystem impacts) and ecological complexities (synergistic effects, impacts across space and time). We reviewed 6 categories of methods (experimental, meta‐analysis, single‐species modeling, mapping, qualitative modeling, and multispecies modeling) and examined the ability of those methods to address different levels of complexity. We focused on research gaps and emerging priorities. We found that no single method assessed impacts across the 4 ecological foci and 6 ecological complexities considered. We propose that methods can be used in combination to improve understanding such that multimodel inference can provide a suite of comparable outputs, mapping methods can help prioritize localized models or experimental gaps, and future experiments can be paired from the outset with models they will inform. Article impact statement: Cumulative‐effects assessment methods inform understanding of the effects of multiple, complex anthropogenic stressors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We consider the harvesting of a population in a stochastic environment whose dynamics in the absence of harvesting is described by a one dimensional diffusion. Using ergodic optimal control, we find the optimal harvesting strategy which maximizes the asymptotic yield of harvested individuals. To our knowledge, ergodic optimal control has not been used before to study harvesting strategies. However, it is a natural framework because the optimal harvesting strategy will never be such that the population is harvested to extinction—instead the harvested population converges to a unique invariant probability measure. When the yield function is the identity, we show that the optimal strategy has a bang–bang property: there exists a threshold x ∗ > 0 such that whenever the population is under the threshold the harvesting rate must be zero, whereas when the population is above the threshold the harvesting rate must be at the upper limit. We provide upper and lower bounds on the maximal asymptotic yield, and explore via numerical simulations how the harvesting threshold and the maximal asymptotic yield change with the growth rate, maximal harvesting rate, or the competition rate. We also show that, if the yield function is C 2 and strictly concave, then the optimal harvesting strategy is continuous, whereas when the yield function is convex the optimal strategy is of bang–bang type. This shows that one cannot always expect bang–bang type optimal controls. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article discusses role of human capacity-building and public education in coastal and ocean management. Topics discussed include rich subsistence and industrial resources, logistical convenience attracts population towards coastal areas; rapid socioeconomic development of Borneo located Malaysian state of Sabah surrounded by the South China Sea, Sulu Sea and Sulawesi Sea; and development increase employment and income of residential people.

The distinctive features of the training system of health professionals and technicians in Cuba are characterized, and the adaptations of the educational models to meet the needs of health services and their adaptation to the socio-economic and scientific-technical environment are described. Education for health is universal, free and is closely linked to the National Health System. The curricula focus on the interrelation between academic training and clinical practice and community activity, whose fundamental form of teaching-learning is based on education at work. The fundamental principle of medical education is the integration of teaching, health care, and research within the health system, which ensures that students are embedded into the teaching-care scenarios through the interaction of the university with society. The curricular plans are based on the main health problems of the population and the environment, with emphasis on primary health care. Since 1959, nearly 350 000 professionals have graduated, including 41 000 foreign students. In addition, more than 30 000 students are trained in 12 countries with the Cuban international medical brigades. Currently, high enrollments increase the teaching-care burden of faculty staff and faculty is subject to frequent changes, representing a challenge to maintaining high-quality training. The scarcity of basic science teachers also affects training. The recruitment of teachers and young tutors needs to be encouraged. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Urban food systems are connected with several pressing issues, including urban population growth, resource scarcity, and climate change. To cope within these issues, urban food systems need to become more sustainable in their practices, as well as resilient in the face of extreme weather events. While scholars have started to investigate this topic, no comprehensive analysis has yet addressed what entails sustainable and resilient urban food systems. Through a systematic review of the literature, this paper aims to improve our understanding of the key components of sustainable and resilient urban food systems. This study reviewed 53 publications and identified components related to the health, social, economy, environment, and governance domains. Only 5 of the works included in the review discussed sustainability and resilience to the impacts of climate change in urban food systems simultaneously, so there is an opportunity for original research and analysis. The most frequently identified components of urban food systems relate to: access to healthy food; connectivity between urban and rural areas; having a strong local food economy and food production; reducing food waste; and, having active participation of all actors in decision making. There is some level of consensus on linking sustainability and resilience, but diversity in food sources and the development of social capabilities need to be emphasised for climate change adaptation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Managing the nonlethal effects of disturbance on wildlife populations has been a long‐term goal for decision makers, managers, and ecologists, and assessment of these effects is currently required by European Union and United States legislation. However, robust assessment of these effects is challenging. The management of human activities that have nonlethal effects on wildlife is a specific example of a fundamental ecological problem: how to understand the population‐level consequences of changes in the behavior or physiology of individual animals that are caused by external stressors. In this study, we review recent applications of a conceptual framework for assessing and predicting these consequences for marine mammal populations. We explore the range of models that can be used to formalize the approach and we identify critical research gaps. We also provide a decision tree that can be used to select the most appropriate model structure given the available data. Synthesis and applications: The implementation of this framework has moved the focus of discussion of the management of nonlethal disturbances on marine mammal populations away from a rhetorical debate about defining negligible impact and toward a quantitative understanding of long‐term population‐level effects. Here we demonstrate the framework's general applicability to other marine and terrestrial systems and show how it can support integrated modeling of the proximate and ultimate mechanisms that regulate trait‐mediated, indirect interactions in ecological communities, that is, the nonconsumptive effects of a predator or stressor on a species' behavior, physiology, or life history. Managing nonlethal effects of disturbance on wildlife is a major objective for modern conservation. We review applications of a conceptual framework for predicting the population consequences of physiological and behavioral changes, and demonstrate its general applicability. We identify critical research gaps and provide guidance to select an appropriate model structure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Vagility is defined as the relative capacity for movement. We developed previously a quantitative metric in vertebrates for physiological vagility (PV), the speed at which an animal can move sustainably, incorporating aerobic capacity, body size, body temperature, and transport costs, allowing quantitative tests of whether PV can explain variation in interclass population genetic structure and behaviors involved in dispersal. We found that PV increased with body mass, correlated with maximal dispersal distances, and was inversely related to genetic structure in multiple vertebrate groups. Here we review these relationships and expand our analysis to include additional groups; we also suggest that PV may be utilized to partially explain variation in migratory capacity between groups. We show a positive correlation between PV and maximum migration distance (M MAX ) in most groups that reflects many of the relationships observed between PV and dispersal. Flying birds, marine mammals, and large terrestrial mammals display the greatest M MAX and each of these groups has the highest PV among vertebrate groups, while reptiles and small terrestrial mammals had the lowest PV and M MAX . By contrast, marine turtles have exceptional M MAX but do not possess high PV. We suggest that PV is an important mechanism enabling both dispersal and migratory capacity, and affects genetic structure, but that other life history characteristics also need to be considered. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rapid population growth accompanied by industrialization and urbanization has led to a noticeable degradation of air quality. There is a strong need to appraise novel materials for the treatment of diverse pollutants in the atmosphere. Among them, graphene oxide (GO) is envisaged as one of the most promising layered materials with expansive applicability in numerous fields, especially in the pollutant removal processes, due to many uniquely advantageous features (e.g., tunable physical properties, excellent thermal stability, electrical conductivity, exceptionally high surface area, and pore volume). In the last decade, researchers have also put much efforts to produce graphene-based composites through the fabrication of graphene or GO with a variety of materials such as carbon nanotubes, metallic nanoparticles, metal-organic framework, and polymers. Because of the advanced features (e.g., strong mechanical and anti-corrosive properties, stimuli responsive property, and high porosity) of graphene-based composites, they have been used preferably for air quality management (AQM) through adsorption, separation, and sensing of gaseous pollutants. In this comprehensive review, we offer a contemporary state of the art discussion on using graphene-based composites for AQM purposes. The nature of the interactions between composites and various types of gaseous pollutants has hence been reviewed in various respects. To expedite further research and development on this topic, we take into consideration the technical challenges with suggestions for the directions of relevant future research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study simultaneously assesses for the first time the relative contributions of riverine and wet atmospheric inputs of materials into the Algerian Annaba Bay on the Mediterranean coast of North Africa. Surface water sampling and water discharge estimates were performed weekly in 2014 at the outlets of the Mafragh River (MR) and Seybouse River (SR). Riverine samples were analyzed for dissolved nutrients and particulate matter (suspended particulate matter: SPM; particulate organic carbon: POC; biogenic silica: BSi; chlorophyll a : Chl a ; particulate organic nitrogen: PON and particulate organic phosphorus (POP). Rainwater samples were jointly collected at a close weather station on a daily basis and analyzed for dissolved nutrients. The rainwater from the Annaba region was characterized by high concentrations of phosphate (PO 4 ) and silicic acid (Si(OH) 4 ) that are several times the average Mediterranean values, and by strong deposition fluxes. Conversely, the levels of dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) and dissolved organic nitrogen (DON) and associated fluxes were remarkably low. The dissolved nutrient fluxes for the two catchments were low following the lowering of the river flows, but those of particulate matter (POC, Chl a , BSi) displayed significant amounts, especially for the MR catchment. BSi and POP represented approximately a third of the total silicon and total phosphorus fluxes, respectively. The levels of dissolved N and P in the MR water were comparable to those in rainwater. MR appeared to be a nearly pristine ecosystem with low nutrient levels and almost balanced N:P and Si:N ratios. SR water had low Si(OH) 4 levels but was highly charged with NH 4 and PO 4 and showed unbalanced N:P and Si:N ratios in almost all samples. These conditions have resulted in large phytoplankton biomasses, which may lead to eutrophication. More importantly, the rainwater was identified as a relevant source of fertilizers for marine waters and agricultural land in the Annaba area and can partially balance the loss of Si(OH) 4 from rivers to the bay due to dam retention. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To safeguard the sustainable use of ecosystems and their services, early detection of potentially damaging changes in functional capabilities is needed. To support a proper ecosystem management, the analysis of an ecosystem’s vulnerability provide information on its weaknesses as well as on its capacity to recover after suffering an impact. However, the application of the vulnerability concept to ecosystems is still an emerging topic. After providing background on the vulnerability concept, we summarize existing ecosystem vulnerability research on the basis of a systematic literature review with a special focus on ecosystem type, disciplinary background, and more detailed definition of the ecosystem vulnerability components. Using the Web of ScienceTM Core Collection, we overviewed the literature from 1991 onwards but used the 5 years from 2011 to 2015 for an in-depth analysis, including 129 articles. We found that ecosystem vulnerability analysis has been applied most notably in conservation biology, climate change research, and ecological risk assessments, pinpointing a limited spreading across the environmental sciences. It occurred primarily within marine and freshwater ecosystems. To avoid confusion, we recommend using the unambiguous term ecosystem vulnerability rather than ecological, environmental, population, or community vulnerability. Further, common ground has been identified, on which to define the ecosystem vulnerability components exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. We propose a framework for ecosystem assessments that coherently connects the concepts of vulnerability, resilience, and adaptability as different ecosystem responses. A short outlook on the possible operationalization of the concept by ecosystem vulnerabilty indices, and a conclusion section complete the review. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ABSTRACT: The value of models that link organism‐level impacts to the responses of a population in ecological risk assessments (ERAs) has been demonstrated extensively over the past few decades. There is little debate about the utility of these models to translate multiple organism‐level endpoints into a holistic interpretation of effect to the population; however, there continues to be a struggle for actual application of these models as a common practice in ERA. Although general frameworks for developing models for ERA have been proposed, there is limited guidance on when models should be used, in what form, and how to interpret model output to inform the risk manager's decision. We propose a framework for developing and applying population models in regulatory decision making that focuses on trade‐offs of generality, realism, and precision for both ERAs and models. We approach the framework development from the perspective of regulators aimed at defining the needs of specific models commensurate with the assessment objective. We explore why models are not widely used by comparing their requirements and limitations with the needs of regulators. Using a series of case studies under specific regulatory frameworks, we classify ERA objectives by trade‐offs of generality, realism, and precision and demonstrate how the output of population models developed with these same trade‐offs informs the ERA objective. We examine attributes for both assessments and models that aid in the discussion of these trade‐offs. The proposed framework will assist risk assessors and managers to identify models of appropriate complexity and to understand the utility and limitations of a model's output and associated uncertainty in the context of their assessment goals. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2018;14:369–380. Published 2017. This article is a US Government work and is in the public domain in the USA. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sources of pollution at the northern end of Lake Tanganyika are concentrated around Bujumbura, Burundi. This article studied the water quality characteristics of seven inflowing rivers emptying into Lake Tanganyika. Chemical analyses were carried out during rainy and dry seasons. The nutrients and suspended solids at some sites were above the critical level for healthy river water. Contamination was concentrated mainly around urban areas which have been newly developed to accommodate the rapidly growing population in the country. Compared to previous studies, the concentrations of nutrients in the river water were relatively high, indicating increasing pollution in Bujumbura's rivers. The mean values of physico-chemical parameters, with the exception of suspended solids, were found to be higher in the dry season than in the rainy season. This result is consistent with previous studies. Principal components analysis and factor analysis were employed for numerical analyses, and proven to be useful to assess the source of pollution in specific river sites, where monitoring data is missing. Routine monitoring of basic physical and chemical indicators of water quality is recommended for all urban lakes and rivers in order to protect both the aquatic ecosystem and health of the local residents living near the lake. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Maghreb region (North Africa) constitutes a major component of the Mediterranean Basin biodiversity hotspot. During the last centuries, a consistent human population growth has led to an unprecedented rate of habitat transformation and loss in the region and thus, threatening its biodiversity. The Western Mediterranean viper Vipera latastei-monticola inhabits humid and subhumid areas in the main mountain ranges of the Maghreb, facing such threatening factors; however, its elusive character and rarity hindered data collection for distinct biological purposes. Here, we study the biogeographical patterns and conservation status of the Maghrebian V. latastei-monticola resulting from recent sampling campaigns in Morocco and Tunisia. We update species distribution, and integrate phylogeographic and ecological niche modelling analyses at both species and lineage level to identify suitable areas, and to evaluate the impact of anthropogenic transformation and level of protection of their suitable space. We identified four highly divergent mitochondrial lineages, including a new lineage endemic to the Western High Atlas, with allopatric distributions and restricted to mountain ranges, supporting the role of mountains as past climatic refugia. Despite the remoteness of suitable areas, we report widespread habitat degradation and identify the low effectiveness of the current protected areas system in preserving the species and lineages range. Our study shows the urgent need to apply management actions for the long-term conservation of this vulnerable species and suggests a revaluation of the specific status of V. monticola, as these populations likely represent an ecotype of V. latastei. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Résumé On étudie le taux d’extinction d’une population modélisée par un processus de branchement à plusieurs types en temps continu dans un environnement aléatoire. Des calculs numériques dans un exemple particulier inspiré d’un modèle épidémique suggèrent une formule explicite pour ce taux d’extinction, mais seulement pour certaines valeurs des paramètres. This study focuses on the extinction rate of a population that follows a continuous-time multi-type branching process in a random environment. Numerical computations in a particular example inspired by an epidemic model suggest an explicit formula for this extinction rate, but only for certain parameter values. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Plausible scenarios of future land use derived from model projections may differ substantially from what is actually desired by society, and identifying such mismatches is important for identifying policies to resolve them. This paper presents an approach to link explorative projections of future land use for the European Union to normative visions of desired land-use futures. We used the results of 24 scenario projections obtained from seven linked simulation models to explore uncertainty in future land-use developments. Land-use projections were linked to statements made by stakeholders for three normative visions of desired, future land use. The visions differed in the scale of multifunctionality of land use: at European (Best Land in Europe), regional (Regional Connected) or local (Local Multifunctional) level. To identify pathways to these visions, we analysed in which cases projected land-use changes matched with the land-use changes desired in the visions. We identified five pathways to the vision Regional Connected, two pathways to the vision Best Land in Europe, but no pathway to the vision Local Multifunctional. Our results suggest that policies have the ability to change the development of land use such that it is more in line with land-use futures desired by society. We believe our approach represents an interesting avenue for foresight studies on land use, as it combines the credibility from explorative scenarios with legitimacy and saliency of normative visions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study seeks to contribute to the recent literature by empirically investigating the causal effect of urban population growth and international trade on environmental pollution of China, for the period 1980–2014. The Johansen cointegration confirmed a long-run cointegration association among the utilised variables for the case of China. The direction of causality among the variables was, consequently, investigated using the recent bootstrapped Granger causality test. This bootstrapped Granger causality approach is preferred as it provides robust and accurate critical values for statistical inferences. The findings from the causality analysis revealed the existence of a bi-directional causality between import and urban population. The three most paramount variables that explain the environmental pollution in China, according to the impulse response function, are imports, urbanisation and energy consumption. Our study further established the presence of an N-shaped environmental Kuznets curve relationship between economic growth and environmental pollution of China. Hence, our study recommends that China should adhere to stricter environmental regulations in international trade, as well as enforce policies that promote energy efficiency in the urban residential and commercial sector, in the quest to mitigate environmental pollution issues as the economy advances. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The relationship between population and the environment is a significant issue due to its impact on chances for achieving sustainable development, especially in developing countries. Previous studies on this relationship have primarily focused on the impact of population growth on the environment, while the impact of the environment on population has received less attention, where most of these studies have used single-equation models (SEM) in their analysis. In order to capture the interrelationship between population growth and the environment, and both its direct and indirect effects on the potential for achieving sustainable development, SEM may not be appropriate. This paper takes a step forward in providing such empirical evidence, by developing a multi-equation model based on the recursive equation system in order to empirically examine the relationship between population growth and the environment in terms of air pollution represented by increased CO emissions, health level represented by the mortality and morbidity due to air pollution, and labour productivity represented by GDP per hour worked, and using a time series data set for Egypt during the period of 1950-2010. Quantitatively, the current study finds that (1) In Egypt, a 1% increase in population raises the CO emissions by 2.4%. (2) An increase in CO emissions by 1% is associated with an increase in deaths due to outdoor air pollution (respiratory and cardiovascular diseases) by 2.5%. (3) Poor health due to air pollution leads to a decrease in labour productivity by 1.58%. (4) The impact of population growth on chances for sustainable development depends on how much the rise in air pollution decreases labour productivity through raising the rate of morbidity. (5) Even when rapid population growth rate plays a minor role in creating a specific problem, such as its indirect negative impact on labour productivity and thus economic growth, population management policies may still constitute a viable measure for dealing with that problem, especially with respect to policy intervention cost. The study argues that population growth in Egypt negatively affects the state's ability to achieve sustainable development via its negative impact on the environment. Environmental degradation in turn leads to adverse effects on population, particularly with regard to public health. These negative effects on health lead to lower labour productivity, and thus hinder the state's ability to sustain development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article analyzes the dynamics of population mortality rates during Uzbekistan's independence. The mortality rates and the mortality rates for some reasons were analyzed nationally. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The human population is both an emitter and receptor of metals. This study aims to clarify how the relationship of metals and metalloids to human populations influences their source characterization and health risk, based on metal concentrations in 298 soil samples in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) and the corresponding zip-code level population. Nickel (Ni), copper (Cu), zinc (Zn), cadmium (Cd), mercury (Hg), and lead (Pb), but not chromium (Cr) and arsenic (As), were significantly correlated with population ( p < 0.01), suggesting potential anthropogenic sources. A principal component analysis (PCA) revealed three factors (i.e., F1, F2, and F3) contributing to metal levels in the PRD: (1) metal transport from rivers (F1), which explained the high levels of Cr, Ni, Cu, Zn, As, and Cd in downstream areas; (2) industrial sources (F2), mainly contributing to Ni, Cu, Zn, Cd, Hg, and Pb; and (3) natural and agricultural sources (F3), mainly contributing to As and Pb. F2 was significantly correlated with population, while F3 was not, indicating that an analysis of the correlation with population could be used to identify industrial sources of metals. Compared with directly calculated risks, the population-weighted non-carcinogenic and carcinogenic risks were increased by 4.2–4.9% and 7.7–9.2%, respectively. A unit increase in the concentration of industrial metals led to higher extra risks than a corresponding increase in natural metals due to the proximity to human populations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Reconstructing nutrient fluxes (C,N,P) to the Santa Catarina Bay (SCB) during last century through high-resolution sedimentary proxies and Pb dating. The fluxes and stable isotopes (δC, δN) showed clear relationship with population growth and silting of rivers. The SCB central zone experienced gradual change from mesotrophic towards eutrophic conditions while the littoral zone showed rapid change, since the 1960s, probably caused by channelization and posterior dredging of rivers. Pb influx at sediment-water interface highest in the central zone pointed to Rn transport by Hadley and Ferrel cells, suggesting that atmospheric supply was related to mid-latitudes of South Atlantic Central Waters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Human population, its number and distribution on our planet, has a seemingly direct linkage to how much food we consume and how we practice agriculture. How this population-foodenvironment interface manifests across the globe is complex, non-linear, and both local- and scale-dependent. This essay is an overview of the population-food-environment nexus, providing recent history and statistics on these processes at several crude scales. We include a discussion of theory, review different drivers of the population-food-environment processes, provide a global overview of population and agricultural statistics from 1970 to 2010, and discuss trends and implications for Latin America, as well as some specific multi-scale case studies. We conclude with a review of potential future trends and proposed solutions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Natural hazards have the potential to trigger complex chains of events in technological installations leading to disastrous effects for the surrounding population and environment. The threat of climate change of worsening extreme weather events exacerbates the need for new models and novel methodologies able to capture the complexity of the natural-technological interaction in intuitive frameworks suitable for an interdisciplinary field such as that of risk analysis. This study proposes a novel approach for the quantification of risk exposure of nuclear facilities subject to extreme natural events. A Bayesian Network model, initially developed for the quantification of the risk of exposure from spent nuclear material stored in facilities subject to flooding hazards, is adapted and enhanced to include in the analysis the quantification of the uncertainty affecting the output due to the imprecision of data available and the aleatory nature of the variables involved. The model is applied to the analysis of the nuclear power station of Sizewell B in East Anglia (UK), through the use of a novel computational tool. The network proposed models the direct effect of extreme weather conditions on the facility along several time scenarios considering climate change predictions as well as the indirect effects of external hazards on the internal subsystems and the occurrence of human error. The main novelty of the study consists of the fully computational integration of Bayesian Networks with advanced Structural Reliability Methods, which allows to adequately represent both aleatory and epistemic aspects of the uncertainty affecting the input through the use of probabilistic models, intervals, imprecise random variables as well as probability bounds. The uncertainty affecting the output is quantified in order to attest the significance of the results and provide a complete and effective tool for risk-informed decision making. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding how pollution affects populations is critical for targeted environmental risk assessments and adequate protection of the environment. However, the vast majority of ecotoxicology studies still have a traditional focus of identifying effects on individual organisms and do not measure the effects at the population-level. Modelling tools that measure population effects of pollution are available and would add value to current ecotoxicology studies by aligning outcomes more closely to what needs to be protected. In this paper I outline three possible reasons why this knowledge gap still exists and consider how they could be adopted more broadly, including better considerations about what endpoints should be measured at the initial study design phase. The purpose of highlighting this knowledge gap is to assist in facilitating the integration of population-level endpoints into routine pollution monitoring programs and progress of ecologically relevant ecotoxicology research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Future population growth is uncertain and matters for climate policy: higher growth entails more emissions and means more people will be vulnerable to climate-related impacts. We show that how future population is valued importantly determines mitigation decisions. Using the Dynamic Integrated Climate-Economy model, we explore two approaches to valuing population: a discounted version of total utilitarianism (TU), which considers total wellbeing and is standard in social cost of carbon dioxide (SCC) models, and of average utilitarianism (AU), which ignores population size and sums only each time period's discounted average wellbeing. Under both approaches, as population increases the SCC increases, but optimal peak temperature decreases. The effect is larger under TU, because it responds to the fact that a larger population means climate change hurts more people: for example, in 2025, assuming the United Nations (UN)-high rather than UN-low population scenario entails an increase in the SCC of 85% under TU vs. 5% under AU. The difference in the SCC between the two population scenarios under TU is comparable to commonly debated decisions regarding time discounting. Additionally, we estimate the avoided mitigation costs implied by plausible reductions in population growth, finding that large near-term savings ($billions annually) occur under TU; savings under AU emerge in the more distant future. These savings are larger than spending shortfalls for human development policies that may lower fertility. Finally, we show that whether lowering population growth entails overall improvements in wellbeing--rather than merely cost savings--again depends on the ethical approach to valuing population. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the last few years, a rapid increase in the population has been observed in many places. The majority of the population lives in urban areas, and experiences several problems related to an inefficient water supply and the occurrence of precipitation extreme events, such as a long dry season or the occurrence of floods. This framework allows consideration of the harvesting and storage of rainwater in tanks for immediate or future use. The harvesting, storage and use of rainwater in urban areas can create a positive impact on the public water supply system through a reduction in the demand for and use of potable water. Brazil experiences both water scarcity and abundance, due to the large dimensions of the country, imbalances in the population distribution and the timing of precipitation. From north to south, there is a wide variety of climates with distinct regional characteristics, including areas of semiarid climate; these are at risk of flooding due to rainfall concentration in few heavy showers and, on the other hand, are also susceptible to drought. Based on precipitation data and other information, an investigation was carried out into the potential of rainwater harvesting in the semiarid region of Brazil. There are 1133 municipalities within the defined semiarid region of Brazil; these municipalities are in nine states (Ministry of National Integration, 2005), including Pernambuco. In this region, the conventional public drinking water supply system covers 60% of the population, distributing water nine and five days per month to the inhabitants of the urban and rural areas, respectively. The potential for potable water savings was estimated for the urban areas of several cities within the semiarid region in Pernambuco State, northeast Brazil, using the methodology proposed by Ghisi et al. (2006) and Belmeziti et al. (2013). Ghisi et al. (2006) applied this methodology to cities in the southern region of Brazil and Belmeziti et al. (2013) used the methodology proposed in Municipality of Colombes (Paris Region). The results show that savings in water supplied by the public system can reach 25%; this paper discusses in an innovative way the savings in water supplied by the public system in a dry climate. The results indicate that a reduction in the pressure on the public water supply system is possible, simply by incorporating rainwater harvesting into the standard practices of local inhabitants. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The large increase in population growth, energy demand, CO 2 emissions and the depletion of the fossil fuels pose a threat to the global energy security problem and present many challenges to the energy industry. This requires the development of efficient and cost-effective solutions like the development of micro-grid networks integrated with energy storage technologies to address the intermittency of renewable energy sources, provide localized electricity production, and smooth out power demand and supply curve. Among other energy storage systems, the cryogenic energy storage (CES) technology offers the advantages of relatively large volumetric energy density and ease of storage. This paper concerns the thermodynamic modeling and parametric analysis of a novel power cycle that integrates air liquefaction plant, cryogen storage systems and a combined direct expansion with closed Rankine power recovery system using two cryogens, liquid nitrogen, and liquid air. This cycle is part of a micro-grid system that provides electricity for a typical 50 unit residential building using either renewable energy sources or national grid off-peak electricity. This power cycle was modeled using MATLAB integrated with REFPROP software to investigate its performance at various operating conditions. Results showed that using liquid air as the working cryogen can significantly improve the cycle performance compared to that of liquid Nitrogen at all operating conditions, yielding maximum round trip efficiencies of 63.27% and 84.15% respectively. Also results showed that as the cryo-turbine efficiency and recovery expansion ratio are increasing the cycle round trip efficiency and network will increase, while as the compressor efficiency increases the round trip efficiency increases and the network decreases to reach the best value at 84% to produce round trip efficiency 80.62% and work 397 kJ/kg for the liquid air condition. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Eight East Asian countries are home to approximately one-quarter of the world's urban population, and by 2050, the combined urban population of these countries is expected to increase to 1.29 billion from 881 million today. Thus a central challenge for East Asian cities is how to pursue more low-carbon urbanization pathways. One of the key messages of the new chapter on urban mitigation of climate change in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report is that certain urban form characteristics, especially co-located high population and employment densities coupled with mixed land use, can result in lower per capita urban emissions. However, East Asian cities already have some of the highest urban population densities in the world, suggesting that altering urban form alone will be a limited mitigation strategy for these places. Here we present a conceptual framework of the underlying factors that shape urban form and affect the use of urban space in East Asian cities. The main thesis of the framework is that urban form is the outcome of historical legacies and modes of governance, and that the use of urban space is deeply influenced by social norms and cultural attitudes. Especially for cities where urban form is established or difficult to change, the framework helps to identify factors that interact with urban form to enable low-carbon urban behavior. The framework offers a solution space for climate change mitigation and sharing of lessons learned that are applicable for East Asia, one of the most rapidly urbanizing regions in the world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The design team intended to take what was mostly empty lots and create Red Stone Park in Chengdu, China. The vision of the team was to create an exceptionally popular and multifaceted Community Park. To do that, the team generated a design with particular attention to families living nearby and the natural landscape of the site. The Red Stone Park today plays a key role in providing residents a charming outdoor gathering place in the midst of a heavily-populated suburban development. The community park derives its name from a large outcropping of indigenous red stone found on site; this red stone is used as an integral design element throughout the park in walls, seating, and special features welcoming guests into the various spaces. With abundant trees and shrubs surrounding a centralized lawn, intimate seating areas, and a spectacular children's play area, the design transformed the park from a once derelict site into a vital outdoor space that is celebrated by local residents. On the weekends, the park is full of multi-generational families barbequing, enjoying games, and relaxing. It sets a new model for community parks in suburban residential areas in China, by merging with the natural environment and encouraging a healthy life style. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change and population growth have prompted calls for African countries to embrace a ‘new Green Revolution’ in order to promote food security. What is ‘new’ about this new Green Revolution? What configurations of capital, the state, agribusiness, and the law define this period of agricultural transition? In this new Green Revolution, I argue, there is a proliferation of new forms of capital – biocapital and philanthrocapital – that integrate biotechnology with philanthropy to create market value. These shifts are engendered by philanthropic giving, in the form of donated genetic material for the development of ‘pro-poor’ biotechnology which normalises seed as commodity, and legislative reform that renders seed patentable material. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

The natural nighttime light environment of the earth has been significantly transformed by human activities. Such “light pollution” has a profound influence on ecosystems. Protected areas (PAs) play key ecological functions and are only effective at low light pollution levels or without any light pollution. In China, with rapid population growth and high urbanization rates, light pollution in PAs continues to aggravate and threaten a number of ecosystems. We used calibrated nighttime light images to study spatial-temporal changes in light pollution in China’s PAs from 1992 to 2012 by classifying light pollution into three levels (moderate, medium, and strong). The results showed that in China’s PAs, the area subject to light pollution increased by about 1.79 times, with a significant increase in the intensity of artificial light. The changes in light pollution exhibited significant regional differences. In the eastern developed regions, light pollution was more significant than that in other regions and the situation in East China was the most severe. In the Qinghai-Tibet, although light pollution was less significant, the area subject to light pollution increased significantly over the evaluated period. Factors influencing light pollution were also analyzed. Light pollution in a PA is influenced by both human activities and its own characteristics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change is altering life at multiple scales, from genes to ecosystems. Predicting the vulnerability of populations to climate change is crucial to mitigate negative impacts. We suggest that regional patterns of spatial and temporal climatic variation scaled to the traits of an organism can predict where and why populations are most vulnerable to climate change. Specifically, historical climatic variation affects the sensitivity and response capacity of populations to climate change by shaping traits and the genetic variation in those traits. Present and future climatic variation can affect both climate change exposure and population responses. We provide seven predictions for how climatic variation might affect the vulnerability of populations to climate change and suggest key directions for future research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Innovation in urban water systems is required to address the increasing demand for clean water due to population growth and aggravated water stress caused by water pollution, aging infrastructure, and climate change. Advances in materials science, modular water treatment technologies, and complex systems analyses, coupled with the drive to minimize the energy and environmental footprints of cities, provide new opportunities to ensure a resilient and safe water supply. We present a vision for enhancing efficiency and resiliency of urban water systems and discuss approaches and research needs for overcoming associated implementation challenges. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since licensure of hepatitis A vaccine in Australia in 1994, infection rates have declined to record lows. Cross-sectional serosurveys conducted over this period meanwhile have shown rising population immunity, particularly in young to middle-aged Australians. In this study, we performed a retrospective birth cohort analysis to estimate the contributions of infection, migration and vaccination towards increased levels of age specific hepatitis A seroprevalence in Australia. When aggregated across age, we find that two-thirds of the increase in population seropositivity (67.04%) between 1994 and 2008 was due to vaccination, just under one-third due to migration, with a negligible contribution from infection (<1%). Comparisons with other data sources reflecting vaccine uptake suggest the magnitude of this effect is realistic. We suggest that these results primarily relate to opportunistic vaccination and indicate the level of population immunity achievable through opportunistic programs providing further evidence for policy considerations around universal hepatitis A vaccine recommendations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]