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U diplomskom radu istražene su tržišne karakteristike te uvozno-izvozna razmjena - s jedne strane primarnih poljoprivrednih poizvoda (pšenica, ječam, kukuruz) te isto tako poljoprivrednih proizvoda s višom dodanom vrijednosti (meso, mlijeko, pivo, ulje). Ono što je ključan problem jeste da Hrvatska izvozi sirovine, a uvozi prerađene proizvode. Također, najveći problem leži u padu proizvodnje točnije prehrambeno-prerađivačke industrije. Kao riješenje Hrvatska bi trebala rekstruktirati i povećati strukturu proizvodnje, poticati domaću potrošnju, koristiti Mjere iz EU fondova, povećati konkurentnost i produktivnost poljoprivrede i prehrambene proizvodnje te time ostvariti bolju vanjskotrgovinsku politiku i dugoročnije uspjehe., In the thesis, market characteristics and import-export exchange of primary agricultural products (wheat, barley, corn) and also agricultural products with a higher added value (meat, milk, beer, oil) were investigated.The key problem is that Croatia exports raw materials and imports processed products. Also, the biggest problem lies in the decline in production, more precisely in the food processing industry. As a solution, Croatia should restructure and increase the structure of production, encourage domestic consumption, use measures from EU funds, increase the competitiveness and productivity of agriculture and food production, and thus achieve a better foreign trade policy and longer-term successes.

A high load of inorganics in raw lignocellulosic biomass is known to inhibit the yield of bio-oil and alter the chemical reactions during fast pyrolysis of biomass. In this study, palm kernel shell (PKS), an agricultural residue from palm oil production, and two other woody biomass samples (mahogany (MAH) sawdust and iroko (IRO) sawdust) were pretreated with distilled water or an acidic solution (either acetic, formic, hydrochloric (HCl) or sulfuric acid (H2SO4)) before fast pyrolysis in order to investigate its effect on the primary products and pyrolysis reaction pathways. The raw and pretreated PKS, MAH and IRO were pyrolysed at 600 °C and 5 s with a micro-pyrolyser connected to a gas chromatograph–mass spectrometer/flame ionisation detector (GC-MS/FID). Of the leaching solutions, HCl was the most effective in removing inorganics from the biomass and enhancing the primary pyrolysis product formed compared to the organic acids (acetic and formic acid). The production of levoglucosan was greatly improved for all pretreated biomasses when compared to the original biomass but especially after HCl pretreatment. Additionally, the relative content of the saccharides was maximised after pretreatment with H2SO4, which was due to the increased production of levoglucosenone. The relative content of the saccharides increased by over 70%. This increase may have occurred due to a possible reaction catalysed by the remaining acid in the biomass. The production of furans, especially furfural, was increased for all pretreatments but most noticeable when H2SO4 was used. However, the relative content of acids and ketones was generally reduced for PKS, MAH and IRO across all leaching solutions. The relative content of the phenol-type compound decreased to a large extent during pyrolysis after acid pretreatment, which may be attributed to dehydration and demethoxylation reactions. This study shows that the production of valuable chemicals could be promoted by pretreatment with different acid solutions.

In this paper, we investigate 'at the aggregate level', the effect of tariff volatility on tariff rates, using three groups of products, including 'all products', 'manufactured products' and 'primary products', and a large panel dataset covering 163 countries over the period 1995-2017. Results, based on the feasible generalized least squares estimator, have shown for the full sample that tariff volatility leads to a greater extent of tariff liberalization. This finding holds for each of the three groups of products highlighted above, as well as for three sub-samples, including lower-middle income countries, upper-middle income countries and high-income countries. However, for Low-income countries, tariff volatility influences significantly (although negatively) tariff rates only for primary products. Additionally, for recipient-countries of Aid for Trade related to trade policy and regulation (AfTPOL), the effect of tariff volatility on tariff rates is conditional upon the amounts of AfTPOL flows only for primary products. Specially, there exists a substitutability between tariff volatility and AfTPOL flows in influencing tariffs applied on primary products. For lower amounts of AfTPOL flows, tariff volatility induces a greater extent of tariff liberalization, while for higher amounts of these aid flows, tariff volatility results in higher tariff rates. Alternatively, the higher the amounts of AfTPOL flows, the greater is the positive effect of tariff volatility on the extent of liberalization of tariff on primary products.

Макарова Анна Андреевна, аспирант, ФГБОУ ВО «Уральский государственный экономический университет» (г. Екатеринбург), Anuta.jolly@mail.ru. Пасько Ольга Владимировна, д.т.н., профессор, зав. кафедрой туризма и гостиничного дела Института гостиничного бизнеса и туризма, ФГАОУ ВО «Российский университет дружбы народов» (г. Москва), pasko-olga@mail.ru. Anna A. Makarova, Ural State University of Economics, Yekaterinburg, Anuta.jolly@mail.ru. Olga V. Pasko, Doctor of Sciences (Engineering), Professor, Head of the Department of Tourism and Hotel Business, Institute of Hotel Business and Tourism, Peoples' Friendship University of Russia, Moscow, pasko-olga@mail.ru. Аналоговая мясная продукция по органолептическим показателям аналогична мясному продукту, но изготовлена из ингредиентов растительного происхождения. Данное исследование направлено на выявление и подбор растительных ингредиентов для разработки аналоговой мясной продукции с учетом требований потребителей, установленных при помощи проведенного ранее маркетингового исследования. В работе приведен краткий обзор перспективного сырья для данной продукции. В аналогах мяса мышечные белки заменяются растительными белками, доступными в виде порошкообразных ингредиентов, а также в сухой текстурированной форме. На сегодняшний день технологии аналоговых мясных продуктов подразумевают применение белков зерновых и бобовых культур, овощей, а также химические соединения микробиологического происхождения. Наиболее перспективным сырьем для аналоговой мясной продукции является соя и зернобобовые. Такие источники белка, как насекомые и микроорганизмы, водоросли, мясо in vitro, получаемое с помощью стволовых клеток или культивирования, находятся на стадии исследований и обсуждений. Проведен анализ данных мирового производства овощей, корнеплодных и клубнеплодных овощных культур, зерновых, зернобобовых и сои, в период с 2010 по 2018 гг. и размещение по географическим регионам. Данные по мировому производству растительного сырья были взяты на сайте статистического отдела Продовольственной и сельскохозяйственной организации Объединенных наций FAOSTAT. Приведены данные относительно распределения мирового производства растительного сырья среди лидирующих стран-производителей. В настоящее время основное мировое производство растительного сырья как перспективного источника белка для аналоговой мясной продукции сосредоточено в Азии, в основном в Китае, а производство сои – в Америке, в частности США и Бразилии. Больше половины объема мирового производства растительного сырья в 2018 г. пришлось на зерновые, далее идут овощи и корне- и клубне-плодные овощные культуры, соя и зернобобовые. Analog of meat products is organoleptically similar to a meat product, but it is made from ingredients of plant origin. The paper is a brief overview of promising raw material for these products. In analogue meat products, muscle proteins are replaced by vegetable proteins, available in powder form as well as in dry textured form. Today, the technology of analogues of meat in-volves the use of proteins of cereals and legumes, vegetables, as well as chemical compounds of microbiological origin. The most promising raw materials for analogue meat products are soy-beans, legumes. Protein sources such as insects and microorganisms, algae, in vitro meat obtained using stem cells or cultivation are under investigation and discussion. The analysis of data on world the production of plant protein, such as vegetables, root and tuber crops, cereals, legumes and soybeans, such as vegetables, root and tuber crops, cereals, legumes and soybeans, was car-ried out in the period from 2010 to 2018 as well as accommodation by geographic region. FAOSTAT provides the data on the global plant protein production. The data on the distribution of world production of vegetable protein among the leading producing countries are presented. Currently, the main world production of vegetable protein is concentrated in Asia, mainly in Chi-na, and soybean production is in America, in particular the USA and Brazil. In 2018 more than half of the global production of vegetable protein falls on cereals, further go vegetables and root and tuber crops, soybeans and legumes.

The purpose of this research is to study if the Chinese demand, considering its own characteristics, is stimulating a dynamic of reprimarization of Latin America in the period 1995-2016. In order to do this, we analyze the export pattern of Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Cuba, Peru, Uruguay and Venezuela focusing on primary products and manufactures based on natural resources. We distinguish trade with China and the rest of the world, and then we study the consequences of the change in the export pattern on national economic structures. The main conclusions of the research are that, although for all the countries studied, we can appreciate a process of reprimarization of their exports; only Brazil and Peru present evidence of a recent reprimarising dynamic of their internal structure, which is still very short-termed. El objetivo de este trabajo es estudiar si la demanda china, dadas sus características propias, estaría incentivando una dinámica reprimarizadora de América Latina en el período 1995-2016. Para ello analizamos el patrón exportador de Argentina, Brasil, Chile, Cuba, Perú, Uruguay y Venezuela centrándonos en los productos primarios y las manufacturas basadas en recursos naturales. Distinguimos el comercio con destino a China y el del resto del mundo; para luego estudiar las consecuencias del cambio en el patrón exportador sobre las estructuras económica nacionales. Las principales conclusiones del trabajo serían que, si bien para la mayoría de los países estudiados, se aprecia un proceso de reprimarización de sus exportaciones; solo Brasil y Perú presentan indicios de una reciente dinámica reprimarizadora de su estructura interna, de aún muy corto recorrido.

Information on the detailed mechanism and dynamics (primary products, branching fractions (BFs), and channel specific rate constants as a function of temperature) for many important combustion reactions of O(3P) with unsaturated hydrocarbons is still lacking. We report synergistic experimental/theoretical studies on the mechanism and dynamics of the O(3P)+1-C4H8 (1-butene) reaction by combining crossed molecular beam (CMB) experiments with soft electron ionization mass-spectrometric detection and time-of-flight analysis at 10.5 kcal/mol collision energy (Ec) to high-level ab initio electronic structure calculations of the underlying triplet and singlet potential energy surfaces (PESs) and statistical Rice-Ramsperger-Kassel-Marcus/Master Equation (RRKM/ME) computations of BFs including intersystem crossing (ISC). The reactive interaction of O(3P) with 1-butene is found to mainly break apart the 4-carbon atom chain, leading to the radical product channels ethyl+vinoxy (BF=0.34±0.11), methyl+C3H5O (BF=0.28±0...

This paper investigates the sources of fluctuations in exports of primary products and manufactures of agricultural origin in Argentina, using structural VEC models (Structural Vector Error Correction) and annual data covering the period 1980-2016. To this end, long term restrictions are imposed on these models and the following structural shocks are identified: real effective exchange rate of U.S., international prices of commodities, agricultural GDP and real exchange rate of Argentina (in addition to exports of these products). The results show that the main sources of fluctuations in exports, after ten years, would be the shocks in international prices and real exchange rate of U.S., while the importance of the real exchange rate of Argentina and, especially, of the supply shocks would be smaller.

Traditional measures of trade diversification only take into account contemporaneous export baskets. These measures fail to capture a country’s ability to respond to shocks by allocating factors of production into activities for which it has already paid the fixed costs associated with exporting. This paper corrects for the shortcoming of traditional measures of diversification by introducing a novel measure of trade diversification—latent diversification—and proposes a proxy to measure latent diversification, which is calculated by taking into account the entire history of a country’s exports. The paper shows that the observed gaps between traditional measures of diversification and the proposed proxy of latent diversification are sizeable; countries hold latent export baskets that are, on average, three times as large as their average contemporaneous export basket, and these gaps are largest for poor and small countries. Moreover, latent diversification is an important determinant of volatility—more diversified latent export baskets are associated with lower terms of trade volatility and, subsequently, lower GDP per capita volatility, even after controlling for the degree of contemporaneous export diversification and other trade and country characteristics. The latter result, together with the disproportionately large latent baskets relative to contemporaneous baskets observed in poor and small countries, suggests that latent diversification is an important vehicle toward stability in countries that face barriers in building diversified contemporaneous export baskets.

This paper analyzes the economic effects of agricultural price and merchandise trade policies around the world as of 2004 on global markets, net farm incomes, and national and regional economic welfare and poverty, using the global economy wide Linkage model, new estimates of agricultural price distortions for developing countries, and poverty elasticity's approach. It addresses two questions: to what extent are policies as of 2004 still reducing rewards from farming in developing countries and thereby adding to inequality across countries in farm household incomes? Are they depressing value added more in primary agriculture than in the rest of the economy of developing countries, and earnings of unskilled workers more than of owners of other factors of production, thereby potentially contributing to inequality and poverty within developing countries (given that farm incomes are well below non-farm incomes in most developing countries and that agriculture there is intensive in the use of unskilled labor)? Results are presented for the key countries and regions of the world and for the world as a whole. They reveal that, by moving to free markets, income inequality between countries will be reduced at least slightly, all but one-sixth of the gains to developing countries will come from agricultural policy reform, unskilled workers in developing countries the majority of whom work on farms will benefit most from reform, net farm incomes in developing countries will rise by 6 percent compared with 2 percent for non-agricultural value added, and the number of people surviving on less than US$1 a day will drop 3 percent globally.

Using the most recent estimates of agricultural price distortions, this chapter studies the economic, poverty, and income inequality impacts of both global and domestic trade reform in Argentina, with a special focus on export taxes. Argentina offers an interesting case study as the only large agricultural exporter that has, at many points in its history, applied export taxes to several of its agricultural products. The chapter combines results from a global economy-wide model (World Bank's linkage model), a national computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, and micro-simulations. The results suggest that liberalization of world trade (including subsidies and import taxes, but not export taxes), both for agricultural and non-agricultural goods, reduces poverty and inequality in Argentina. However, if only agricultural goods are included, indicators for poverty and inequality do not improve and even deteriorate somewhat. This is particularly the case if export taxes are eliminated. The chapter discusses the possible reasons for those results, offers some caveats, and suggests some lines for further research.

Although Mozambique has considerable agricultural potential, rural poverty remains extremely high. This paper examines the extent to which global and domestic price distortions affect agricultural production and national poverty. The author develops a computable general equilibrium (CGE) and micro-simulation model of Mozambique that is linked to the results of a global model. This framework is used to examine the effects of eliminating global and national price distortions. Model results indicate that agriculture is adversely affected by current trade distortions due to policies in the rest of the world. While a removal of all merchandise trade distortions will reduce import prices, it will also raise agricultural production and reduce poverty. By contrast, removing only agricultural price distortions abroad will have little effect on Mozambique's agricultural sector. Model results indicate that Mozambique's own distortions are also biased against agriculture, with producers of processed agricultural products enjoying high protection levels. Removing these distortions causes a significant expansion of agricultural Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and a reduction in both poverty and inequality. The findings therefore suggest that removing own-country and rest-of-world distortions will have positive implications for agriculture and for the overall economy in Mozambique, and in particular it will reduce its poverty and inequality.

The volume on agricultural price distortions, inequality and poverty begins with a global study that uses the World Bank's linkage model to examine the economic impacts in various countries, regions and the world as a whole of agricultural and trade policies as of 2004. It does so by shocking that model with the removal of all agricultural price-distorting domestic and border policies with, and without, the removal of trade policies affecting all other goods. That pair of shocks is also employed in another global study in that volume to examine the inequality and poverty implications of those price-distorting policies for more than 100 countries. Then for ten national studies reported in that volume, the Linkage model again is used, but only to provide an exogenous set of shocks to the national economy wide model employed by the authors of each developing country case study. The effects of that shock on a national economy are then compared with the effects of own-country liberalization using the same national model and the same agricultural protection rates for that country as in the global Linkage model. In this appendix the authors describe the main assumptions adopted to generate the border price and export demand shocks from agricultural and trade policy reforms by the rest of the world, and how that is communicated to the national models.

This chapter begins with a brief summary of the long history of national distortions to agricultural markets. It then outlines the methodology used to generate annual indicators of the extent of government interventions in markets, details of which are provided in Anderson and appendix A. A description of the economies under study and their economic growth and structural changes over recent decades is then briefly presented as a preface to the main section of the chapter, in which the nominal rates of assistance and consumer tax equivalents (NRA and CTE) estimates are summarized across regions and over the decades since the 1950s. These estimates are discussed in far more detail in the regional chapters that follow. A summary is also provided of an additional set of indicators of agricultural price distortions presented in chapter eleven that are based on the trade restrictiveness index first developed by Anderson and Neary (2005). In chapter twelve the focus shifts from countries to commodities, and all the various distortion indicators are used to provide a sense of how distorted are each of the key farm commodity markets globally. Then chapter thirteen uses the study's NRA and CTE estimates to provide a new set of results from a global economy-wide model that attempts to quantify the impacts on global markets, net farm incomes and welfare of the reforms since the early 1980s and of the policies still in place as of 2004. The chapter concludes by drawing on the lessons learned to speculate on the prospects for further reducing the disarray in world agricultural markets.

How hospitable will the global environment be for economic growth in the developing world as we come out of the present financial crisis? The answer depends on how well the author manage the following tension. On the one hand, global macro stability requires that we prevent external imbalances from getting too large. On the other hand, growth in poor nations requires that the world economy be able to absorb a rapid increase in the supply of tradable produced in the developing world. It is possible to render these two requirements compatible, but doing so requires greater use of explicit industrial policies in developing countries, which have the potential of encouraging of modern tradable activities without spilling over into trade surpluses. The 'price' to be paid for greater discipline on real exchange rates and external imbalances is greater use (and permissiveness) towards industrial polices.

Are efficiency improvements in the use of natural resources the key for sustainable development, are they the solution to environmental problems, or will second round effects - so-called rebound effects - compensate or even overcompensate potential savings, will they fire back? The answer to this question will have fundamental policy implications but the research on rebound effects does not provide clear results. This paper aims to clarify the theoretical basis of various analytical approaches which lead to widely different estimates of rebound effects.

Earnings from farming in many developing countries have been depressed by a pro-urban bias in own-country policies as well as by governments of richer countries favoring their farmers with import barriers and subsidies. Both sets of policies, which reduce national and global economic welfare and contribute to global inequality and poverty, have been undergoing reform since the 1980s. Using the linkage model of the global economy and modifications to the pre-release of version 7 of the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) protection database for 2004, this paper seeks to compare the effect of those reforms to date with those that would come from removing remaining agricultural and trade policies. Two sets of results are thus presented: one showing the effects of policy reforms between 1980-84 and 2004, the other showing what the removal of remaining distortions as of 2004 could be. Both sets of results indicate improvements in the real value of agricultural output and exports, the real returns to farm land and unskilled labor, and real net farm incomes in most developing country regions despite the adverse effect on the international terms of trade for some developing countries that are net food importers or are enjoying preferential access to agricultural markets of high-income countries. Landowners in those high-income countries still offering their farmers price supports could readily afford to compensate them from the benefits of removing remaining agricultural protectionism.

Export diversification can lead to higher growth. Developing countries should diversify their exports since this can, for example, help them to overcome export instability or the negative impact of terms of trade in primary products. The process of economic development is typically a process of structural transformation where countries move from producing "poor-country goods" to "rich-country goods." Export diversification does play an important role in this process. The author also provides robust empirical evidence of a positive effect of export diversification on per capita income growth. This effect is potentially nonlinear with developing countries benefiting from diversifying their exports in contrast to the most advanced countries that perform better with export specialization.