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Research into mixed-forests has increased substantially in the last decades but the extent to which the new knowledge generated meets practitioners' concerns and is adequately transmitted to them is unknown. Here we provide the current state of knowledge and future research directions with regards to 10 questions about mixed-forest functioning and management identified and selected by a range of European forest managers during an extensive participatory process. The set of 10 questions were the highest ranked questions from an online prioritization exercise involving 168 managers from 22 different European countries. In general, the topics of major concern for forest managers coincided with the ones that are at the heart of most research projects. They covered important issues related to the management of mixed forests and the role of mixtures for the stability of forests faced with environmental changes and the provision of ecosystem services to society. Our analysis showed that the current scientific knowledge about these questions was rather variable and particularly low for those related to the management of mixed forests over time and the associated costs. We also found that whereas most research projects have sought to evaluate whether mixed forests are more stable or provide more goods and services than monocultures, there is still little information on the underlying mechanisms and trade-offs behind these effects. Similarly, we identified a lack of knowledge on the spatio-temporal scales at which the effects of mixtures on the resistance and adaptability to environmental changes are operating. Our analysis may help researchers to identify what knowledge needs to be better transferred and to better design future research initiatives meeting practitioner's concerns. This article is based upon work from COST Action FP1206, EuMIXFOR, supported by COST (European Cooperation in Science and Technology). The authors want to specially thank the large number of forest managers that were involved in the participatory process and kindly responded to the surveys. The first author also thanks the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness for funding the project AGL2015-70425-R which partly supported his contribution to this study. MM acknowledges support by grant IUT21-4 of the Estonian Ministry of Education and Research and DS support by project III 43007 (2011–2017) from Ministry of Education, Science and Technological Development of Republic of Serbia.

As a small and open economy, Belarus' development perspectives are intrinsically linked to its ability to produce and sell goods and services competitively in the global marketplace. While Belarus is an open economy, its trade links are concentrated both in terms of products and markets. Mineral goods –most importantly refined oil and potassium chloride - are the main export product accounting for more than 1/3 of total exports. Non mineral exports, including most importantly machinery, vehicles and transport equipment are mostly exported to Russia and other CIS markets, which account for 74 percent of non-mineral exports while the share of EU countries in Belarus non-mineral exports account for less than 15 percent. With Russia's WTO accession in 2012 competitive pressures on Belarus’ major market for non-mineral exports have further intensified. As Belarus is accelerating its own negotiations with the WTO, understanding the challenges and opportunities faced by the country's exporters is critical to putting in place an effective adaptation strategy that will enhance competitiveness and ensure Belarus can take full advantage of more open market access. The objective of this note is to analyze the economic impacts of Belarus' potential accession to the WTO. The note utilizes a modern computable general equilibrium model of the economy of Belarus to simulate impacts on the economy as a whole and on individual sectors.

This report responds to a request from the Government of Timor-Leste (GoTL) and Dr. Mari Alkatiri. The request was for World Bank assistance to collaborate on a range of studies relating to opportunities in the special economic zone, including community development, trade and competitiveness, and regional integration. The analysis builds on a situation analysis prepared by the Zona Especial de Economia Social de Mercado (ZEESM) authority in March 2014. The transfer of significant responsibility for Oecusse’s development to the ZEESM authority, reflects a political rapprochement and collaboration between Prime Minister Xanana Gusmao and Dr. Alkatiri. The report is in two volumes. Volume one presents an overview of Oecusse’s current state in chapter one with analysis of living standards, economic activity including trade, and current constraints. Chapter two analyzes Oecusse’s phased economic potential through a range of phase one development interventions focusing on agriculture, and considers the pre-requisites for developing an SEZ in Oecusse. Volume two contains more comprehensive background chapters with full analysis of living standards in chapter three, agriculture in chapter four, transport corridor in chapter five, and migration in chapter six.

This paper provides evidence on the impacts of agricultural productivity on employment growth and structural transformation of non-farm activities. To guide the empirical work, this paper develops a general equilibrium model that emphasizes distinctions among non-farm activities in terms of tradable-non-tradable and the formal-informal characteristics. The model shows that when a significant portion of village income is spent on town/urban goods, restricting empirical analysis to the village sample leads to underestimation of agriculture's role in employment growth and transformation of non-farm activities. Using rainfall as an instrument for agricultural productivity, empirical analysis finds a significant positive effect of agricultural productivity growth on growth of informal (small-scale) manufacturing and skilled services employment, mainly in education and health services. For formal employment, the effect of agricultural productivity growth on employment is found to be largest in the samples that include urban areas and rural towns compared with rural areas alone. Agricultural productivity growth is found to induce structural transformation within the services sector with employment in formal/skilled services growing at a faster pace than that of low skilled services.

As a small economy, Uruguay’s growth and poverty reduction prospects are closely related to its performance in international markets. This report analyzes export dynamics in Uruguay over the period 2000-2013, benchmarking them against relevant comparator countries. It looks at export outcomes through four different dimensions of export performance: (1) the evolution, composition, and growth orientation of the country’s export basket; (2) the degree of diversification across products and markets; (3) the level of sophistication and quality; and (4) the survival rate of export relationships. The report offers a number of hypotheses for an in-depth competitiveness diagnostic of Uruguay’s external sector, as well as policy recommendations to increase integration and to gain from it. In addition to the real depreciation of the peso that followed the crisis, the international prices of Uruguay’s main export products soared. This stimulated investment in technological improvements in the production of these natural-resource-intensive products. Section one analyzes the macroeconomic environment in which exporters operate in Uruguay during the period of analysis. Section two looks at level, growth, composition, and market share performance of Uruguay’s exports, as well as the country’s main trading destinations. Section three focuses on the diversification of products and markets, considering several measures of concentration, including the share of top five products and markets in exports, and the Hirschman-Herfindahl index for Uruguay’s export portfolio. Sections four and five address quality and sophistication and survival, respectively.

Robust GDP growth continues, and real growth for 2014 has been revised up by the authorities to 7.1 percent from an earlier estimate of 7.0 percent. Strong domestic demand, boosted by a construction boom and accommodated by high domestic credit growth, helps offset the moderation in export growth with the slowdown of the garment, tourism and agriculture sectors observed in the first half of 2015. As an oil importer, the country benefits from the slump in oil prices, contributing to savings on petroleum imports. In this setting, growth is projected to ease slightly, to 6.9 percent in 2015. Downside risks to this outlook include potential renewed labor discontent, further appreciation of the US dollar, a delay in economic recovery in Europe, and a hard landing of the Chinese economy.

This paper quantifies the contributions to poverty reduction observed in Sri Lanka between 2002 and 2012/13. The methods adopted for the analysis generate entire counterfactual distributions to account for the contributions of demographics, labor, and non-labor incomes in explaining poverty reduction. The findings show that the most important contributor to poverty reduction was growth in labor income, stemming from an increase in the returns to salaried nonfarm workers and higher returns to self-employed farm workers. Although some of this increase in earnings may point to improvements in productivity, defined as higher units of output per worker, some of it may simply reflect increases in food and commodity prices, which have increased the marginal revenue product of labor. To the extent that there have been no increases in the volumes being produced, the observed changes in poverty are vulnerable to reversals if commodity prices were to decline significantly. Finally, although private transfers (domestic and foreign) helped to reduce poverty over the period, public transfers were not as effective. In particular, the reduction in the real value of transfers of the Samurdhi program during 2002 to 2012/13 slowed down poverty reduction.

Even nearly ten years of solid growth cannot guarantee long-term income convergence. The countries of the Latin America and Caribbean region (LAC), like other emerging economies, have benefited from a decade of remarkable growth and some income per capita convergence towards the United States and other industrialized countries. Yet, despite this recent progress, LAC still faces a significant per capita income gap with the developed world. The studies in this volume contribute to the ongoing debate on the reasons for this persistent income gap and the potential drivers of convergence, and propose some broad avenues for reform.

The recent emergence of a persistent deficit in Indonesia s trade balance has triggered concerns over reliance on imports. Notably, imports of intermediate inputs and capital goods have been on the rise over the last decade. Apart from firms partaking in the emergence of global production networks, firms imported intermediates for various reasons, including value, variety, and quality. Concerns may arise about the impact that an increase in reliance on imported inputs may have on domestic jobs, and value added. A careful examination of sector and firm level data from the Indonesian manufacturing sector reveals that: (1) the growth of intermediates imports roughly matches the growth of Indonesian GDP, implying a relatively stable reliance on imported inputs. (2) Users of imported inputs in Indonesia are exceptional performers: they grow faster in terms of output, value added and employment, they are more productive, and they pay higher wages. (3) The increased availability of imported inputs has contributed to improved product quality in Indonesian manufacturing. Larger shares of imported inputs in total inputs, as well as lower tariffs on inputs, are associated with a higher probability of producing high quality goods. (4) Firms product diversification processes have been boosted by lower tariffs on inputs, and by increased usage of imported versions. In light of these results, this note argues that facilitating the import of intermediate products can help the Indonesian economy to diversify, avoid being stuck in low-skilled processing or around natural resource based manufacturing, and to climb up the value chain. Such an approach, however, is not sufficient in isolation and active policies are needed to increase firms absorptive capacities and workers skills.

Based on preliminary estimates, the Lao People's Democratic Republic (PDR) economy grew by 7.5 percent in 2014, compared to an average of 8 percent over 2011-13. Looking forward, real gross domestic product (GDP) growth is projected to slow further in 2015 before accelerating in the medium term. Average annual inflation in 2014 decelerated to 4.2 percent from 6.4 percent a year earlier, driven primarily by slower growth in food prices and a decline in fuel prices. In response to a widened fiscal deficit in FY2012-13, the government embarked on much needed fiscal corrective measures in FY2013-14 and FY2014-15. Foreign exchange reserves coverage remains low as compared with prudential benchmarks. While the nominal exchange rate remained relatively stable within the band set by the Bank of Laos (BOL), the real exchange rate continued to appreciate. Indications in 2014 are that bank credit growth is slowing down sharply compared to its previous rapid pace over several years. In order to grasp new opportunities and enjoy the benefits of regional integration, it is necessary for Lao PDR to take steps to create a conducive business environment. In order to achieve broad-based, inclusive growth and poverty reduction in Lao PDR, channeling greater resources toward tackling key workforce skills and productivity challenges is of significant importance.

Chinas economic growth is gradually slowing as the structural transformation of the economy continues. Output grew by 7.7 percent in 2013, matching its 2012 growth rate and exceeding the governments 7.5 percent indicative target. In recent months economic activity, including industrial production, started to show signs of acceleration. The recent acceleration, expected to continue into the next two quarters, is partly reflecting the effect of new growth-supporting measures, robust consumption, and a recovery of external demand. Chinas growth will continue to moderate over the medium term, and the structural shifts will become more evident. Growth in China is expected to decrease marginally to 7.6 percent in 2014 and 7.5 percent in 2015, from 7.7 percent in 2013. Fiscal and financial sector reforms are needed to address financial stability risks in the medium run. The first task involves effectively managing the process of rapid credit growth, including less well-regulated shadow banking system. The second involves gradual and orderly deleveraging of large stock of local government debt accumulated through off-budget and quasi-fiscal platforms.

Botswana has been one of the most successful countries in the developing world over the last 40 years by many measures. Incomes have grown at a sustained pace, poverty has fallen, and the citizenry has become more educated. To be sure, poverty and income inequalities remain a problem, but rising standards of living have meant a better life for this generation of Batswana than any before it. The question facing the country leadership is whether this commendable performance can be sustained into the next generation. There are clouds on the horizon that cannot be ignored. Diamond earnings, the life blood of decades of prosperity, have flattened out. In per capita terms they are falling. Moreover, because revenues from diamonds going to the public sector have been falling for more than a decade, a growth model predicated upon an ever expanding state presence is not viable. Diamond earnings accruing to the state for subsequent redistribution have peaked. Employment and wages in the public sector have reached their natural limits as a share of Gross Domestic Product (GDP); recycling revenues from mining into the private sector, either directly or through the financial sector, has been inefficient with low social returns; and redistributive mechanisms to support social safety nets are also likely be approaching their limits. The country confronts the challenge of looking for new sources of growth outside of government.

Afghanistan will experience a major security and development transition over the next three years. At the Kabul and Lisbon Conferences in 2010, NATO and the Afghan government agreed that full responsibility for security would be handed over to the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) by the end of 2014. Development progress since 2001 has been mixed. Some major achievements have been recorded, such as rapid economic growth (with large fluctuations), relatively low inflation (after hyperinflation in the 1990s), better public financial management, and gains in basic health and education. Key social indicators, including life expectancy and maternal mortality, have improved markedly (admittedly from an extremely low base), and women are participating more in the economy. Yet in other respects, particularly governance and institution building, the country has fared less well, and many indicators have worsened in recent years. Afghanistan remains one of the world's least developed countries, with a per capita gross domestic product (GDP) of only $528 in 2010/11. More than a third of the population live below the poverty line, more than half are vulnerable and at serious risk of falling into poverty, and three?quarters are illiterate. This report is intended to be comprehensive, so it also discusses the broader historical and political economy context of development in the country, and how Afghanistan compares with other countries that have undergone their own transitions over the past 30 years. This report is based on data collected from various sources in 2011, and its analysis and findings therefore comprise the team's considered assessment using the best available information available by the end of that year. In addition, projections of future trends in Afghanistan inevitably are subject to uncertainty and reflect any weaknesses in the underlying data. Thus the report's projections should be seen as subject to further adjustments and improvements as better and more recent information become available. This report is presented in two volumes. Volume one is a stand?alone Overview which highlights the main findings, projections, and recommendations of the study. Volume two consists of five chapters presenting the detailed empirical background, analytical findings, projections, and recommendations of the study, along with a concluding chapter and three technical appendices.

In 2011, India's economic growth has slowed to below 7 percent and the stock markets mirrored the weakening economic conditions, but recovered somewhat in early 2012. Industrial sector output growth briefly slipped into negative territory. On the demand side, fixed investment and consumption growth slowed. India's exports were growing very strongly through 2011 despite the worsening economic conditions in Europe, which continued to be India's most important export market. The balance of payments continued to be in surplus during April-September 2011, but the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) reserves declined by a small amount since then. The rupee nevertheless depreciated by 20 percent between August and December, before recovering somewhat in early 2012. Macroeconomic policies presented a mixed picture: the central government is likely to miss the ambitious target for fiscal consolidation it had set in the FY2011-12 budget by about one percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Slippages are due to lower-than-expected revenues and increasing outlays on subsidies, which had been given low budgetary allocations in anticipation of strong policy changes, which failed to materialize. In India, the slowdown in GDP growth witnessed over the last two quarters is likely to extend into the coming fiscal year because of the weakness in investment. In FY2011-12 and FY2012-13, GDP growth is forecast to reach around 7-7.5 percent, a significant slowdown from the 9-10 percent growth in the run-up to the global financial crisis. The slowdown is at least partly caused by structural problems (power projects facing delays due to the lack of coal and gas feedstock, mining and the telecom sectors hit by corruption scandals, unavailability of land and infrastructure).

The current edition of the Rwanda economic update is titled seeds for higher growth and specially features the agriculture sector. The importance of agriculture's contribution to growth in Rwanda remains considerable, despite the emergence of other significant growth drivers, such as services. Rwanda's agriculture sector will play an essential role in attaining the country's development vision of sustainable growth and increased poverty reduction, due to its employment weight. The agriculture feature of this update edition outlines key channels through which agriculture contributes to the economy. The second part of the update provides the regular overview of recent macroeconomic developments. While the special feature on agriculture will analyze the evolving role of the sector over the past five years, the second part on recent economic developments will focus on events during 2010.

This Cameroon economic update, the World Bank is launching a program of short, crisp and more frequent country economic reports. These economic updates will analyze the trends and constraints in Cameroon's economic development. Each issue, produced bi-annually, will provide an update of recent economic developments as well as a special focus on a selected topical issue. The economic updates aim to share knowledge and stimulate debate among those interested in improving the economic management of Cameroon and unleashing its enormous potential. The notes thereby offer another voice on economic issues in Cameroon, and an additional platform for engagement, learning and change. The report's special focus on the telecommunication sector. Cameroon has been hit by the global economic and financial crisis over the past two years, as reflected in steep declines in the price and demand for its export commodities including oil, timber, rubber, cotton and aluminum. However, the upturn in the global economy and measures taken by the authorities to stimulate domestic production, preliminary indications suggest that economic activity is recovering. Gross domestic product (GDP) growth in 2010 is estimated to have reached 3 percent on the back of stronger non-oil activities, which expanded by about 4 percent (particularly food crops, forestry, construction, transport, and telecoms). Data on private credit growth corroborate this assessment. Cameroon is a relatively small and mature oil producer, where oil production is declining. Depleting reserves, aging equipment, and more recently postponements of some development projects and investments because of the financial crisis explain this profile. The contribution of this sector to GDP growth has been mostly negative in recent years: oil production is estimated to have contracted by a further 16 percent in 2010 (to 23.2 million barrels).

Agricultural investments made by developing countries and multilateral development banks (MDBs) have declined in recent decades. This decline is associated with a slowdown in the growth of agriculture productivity. Most development institutions have recognized the damage caused by this past neglect, in part evident in rising food prices, and renewed attention to agriculture and agribusiness is emerging. But this renewed interest will need to deliver results, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa, where the MDBs have had the least success but where the needs and opportunities are enormous. This paper synthesizes recent work by the independent evaluation agency members of the Evaluation Cooperation Group (ECG) and incorporates lessons from related research by MDBs and from the academic literature on agriculture and agribusiness. The objectives of the paper, in addition to distilling evaluative lessons for agriculture and agribusiness, are to examine the key constraints on the sector and to provide evaluators, operational staff, and policy makers with an evaluative perspective on interventions in countries at different stages of development.

The Indian economy recovered from the slowdown at the time of the global financial crisis with strong Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth, in particular over the first half of FY2010-11. The agricultural sector bounced back strongly after the 2010 monsoon brought normal levels of rainfall, and the industrial sector registered double-digit growth for three consecutive quarters. Inflation came down to 7.5 percent in November but then accelerated again to 8.4 percent in December because of a renewed food supply shock. The current account deficit in FY2009-10 was the largest ever (in US$ terms) and the monthly deficit widened further during the first half of FY2010-11, but the trend then reversed with import growth slowing and export growth accelerating in September-December 2010. With the significant inflation differential between India and its trading partners, the rupees real effective exchange rate (REER) strengthened. On the fiscal side, massive windfall revenue from wireless spectrum auctions and buoyant tax revenue are likely to be offset by two supplementary spending bills. Monetary policy tightening continued with increases in policy rates. This update also discusses several medium-term issues: the link between the real exchange rate and growth, a long-term look at education, demographics and growth, the challenges facing the introduction of the Goods and Services Tax (GST), and the mid-term evaluation of the eleventh development plan. On the real exchange rate, economists have pointed out that the most successful emerging market economies have maintained an undervalued exchange rate to promote exports. In India, the real exchange rate has been broadly stable since the early 1990s, and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) judges it fairly valued with respect to different measures of equilibrium. However, the growing trade deficit and a large fiscal deficit do not quite fit this picture. Discussing policies, we argue that it would be best to focus on policies that increase productivity and competitiveness.

The Baltic States; Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania and Poland are situated along strategic trade corridors within Europe, constituting the EUs eastern border with Russia and other CIS countries. EU membership has triggered rapid economic growth for the Baltic States and Poland due to the removal of trade barriers and reduced transaction costs. A heavy influx of EU grants has targeted development and improvement of transport infrastructure, and this support will continue until 2015. The EU grants are largely used for development of international corridors, which play a key role in strengthening the competitiveness of these new member states. Since their accession to the EU in 2004, these countries enjoyed remarkable growth. While the countries underwent varying degrees of contractions in 2009, signs of recovery are showing albeit with considerable uncertainty in the future. Growth in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania in recent years has been unsustainable and was driven by a disproportionate increase in the non-tradable sector (construction, financial intermediation, real estate). This has had negative implications for competitiveness. The global economic crisis in 2009 has ended Poland?s fast economic expansion over the recent years, but in contrast to its neighbors Poland has avoided a decline in economic activity. Over the medium term, growth in Poland is expected to accelerate steadily in line with an improving external environment. The Baltic States and Poland are relatively competitive in trade logistics and have initiated reforms to facilitate trade, compared to their eastern neighbors, particularly Russia. Despite the plunge in 2008, freight transport and logistics development in the region has potential to continue to grow in the medium-term as some signs of recovery have begun to appear. The current economic situation has triggered a significant overcapacity of transport and warehousing which is characterized by very low prices for these services. While Poland remains relatively stable, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania are exhibiting higher vulnerability to external shocks. The most critical bottlenecks of transport logistics in the Baltic States and Poland are found in the deteriorating condition of their transport infrastructure, particularly that of road networks, lessdeveloped intermodal connections, and inefficiency of custom processing at border crossing points. Deteriorating road condition in these countries is largely due to inadequate maintenance and a comprehensive asset management system, albeit improving. Intermodal connections that are often inefficient are partly attributed to institutional arrangement that lacks inter-agency collaboration at the level of policy development and public investment. Custom procedures are particularly cumbersome and inefficient at the borders to non-EU member states. Nevertheless, the Baltic States and Poland have relative strengths in efficiency of domestic transport/logistics, cost-efficiency of trucking industry, and price-competitive port operation. The report various recommendations for strategic policy priorities for the Baltic States and Poland to leverage their own strengths to respond to various opportunities and challenges.

This paper sketches a macroeconomic scenario for China for 2010-20. Growth accounting exercise finds that, with both the working population and total factor productivity on course to decelerate, potential gross domestic product (GDP) growth is likely to moderate in the coming 10 years, despite still sizeable capital deepening. Actual GDP should grow broadly as fast as potential GDP, continuing the track record since the late 1990s. With some rebalancing expected, the share of consumption in GDP is likely to bottom out and to rise somewhat through 2015 while the share of investment edges down. Robust economic growth in China would support imports. Meanwhile, given the outlook for the world economy, the share of exports in GDP may decline in 2010-2015 despite good competitiveness. As a result, the trade surplus may diminish relative to the size of China's economy. Even so, the external surplus will continue to rise in US dollar terms, especially the current account. In 2020 China's GDP per capita will be broadly comparable to the current level in Latin America, Turkey, and Malaysia. Adjusted for purchasing power, in 2020 China's GDP per capita will be one-fourth of the US level and China's total economy larger than that of the US. The pace of catch up in current prices and market exchange rates will depend on the extent of real exchange rate (RER) appreciation. Past experience internationally suggests that, with a large portion of labor employed in agriculture, RER appreciation may be modest in the coming decade. However, demographic changes may speed up the tightening of the labor market and trend RER appreciation. Reflecting this uncertainty, two scenarios are presented, suggesting China may become the largest economy on this metric sometime between 2020 and 2030.

How hospitable will the global environment be for economic growth in the developing world as we come out of the present financial crisis? The answer depends on how well the author manage the following tension. On the one hand, global macro stability requires that we prevent external imbalances from getting too large. On the other hand, growth in poor nations requires that the world economy be able to absorb a rapid increase in the supply of tradable produced in the developing world. It is possible to render these two requirements compatible, but doing so requires greater use of explicit industrial policies in developing countries, which have the potential of encouraging of modern tradable activities without spilling over into trade surpluses. The 'price' to be paid for greater discipline on real exchange rates and external imbalances is greater use (and permissiveness) towards industrial polices.

This chapter deals with the distortions to price incentives for agriculture that result from the trade, exchange rate and domestic policies in place in the four main South Asian countries, by summarizing and comparing the findings and themes of the more-detailed case studies on India, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka. Attention is paid most to India, which accounts for around four fifths of South Asia's population, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and agricultural GDP. The principal focus is on the level of and trends in distortions for agriculture as a whole, and how these have changed over time relative to those for non-agricultural traded sectors in these countries. Previous studies have established that in India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka, policies strongly favored manufacturing over the principal agricultural crops, although the extent of anti agricultural bias diminished considerably between the 1970s to 1995. The new country studies extend the earlier estimates up to 2005 and back to 1965, and provide long term estimates of distortions to relative agricultural incentives in Bangladesh for the first time. As well, these new studies broaden the coverage of previous research by including estimates for the fresh fruit and vegetables sector in India, and the dairying sectors in India and Pakistan. In South Asia both of these sectors account for large shares of the rural economy as measured by their contributions to GDP.

Spatial inequality is an important feature of many developing countries that seems to increase with economic growth and development. At the same time, there seems to be little consensus on the causes of spatial inequality and on a list of effective policy instruments that may foster or reduce spatial inequality. This paper examines the theoretical and empirical literature on spatial inequality to learn what we know and do not know about the causes of spatial inequality, to investigate what policies may or may not ameliorate spatial inequality, and to determine whether policy makers can identify and implement policies that promote or reduce spatial inequality.

Spatial disparity in incomes and productivity is apparent across and within countries. Most studies of the determinants of such differences focus on cross-country comparisons or location choice among firms. Less studied are the large differences in agricultural productivity within countries related to concentrations of rural poverty. For policy, understanding the determinants of this geography of agricultural productivity is important, because strategies to reduce poverty often feature components designed to boost regional agricultural incomes. Census and endowment data for Ecuador are used to estimate a model of endogenous technology choice to explain large regional differences in agricultural output and factor productivity. A composite-error estimation technique is used to separate systemic determinants from idiosyncratic differences. Simulations are employed to explore policy avenues. The findings suggest a differentiation between the types of policies that promote growth in agriculture generally and those that are more likely to assist the rural poor.

The paper analyzes the linkages between the reform strategies in transition countries and economic performance. We focus on agriculture because of the sharpness of the policy changes, fundamental differences among countries, and relative simplicity of agricultural relationships. We document post reform performance in the transition countries of Asia and Europe. We show how: a.) pricing reform and subsidy reductions; b.) land rights reform and policies that affect farm restructuring; and c.) the presence institutions that facilitate exchange (either markets or market substitutes) affect output and productivity. The paper ends with general lessons on reforms and transition.

This article presents estimates of the impact of China's accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO). China is estimated to be the biggest beneficiary (US$31 billion a year from trade reforms in preparation for accession and additional gains of $10 billion a year from reforms after accession), followed by its major trading partners that also undertake liberalization, including the economies in North America, Western Europe, and Taiwan (China). Accession will boost manufacturing sectors in China, especially textiles and apparel, which will benefit directly from the removal of export quotas. Developing economies competing with China in third markets may suffer small losses. Accession will have important distributional consequences for China, with the wages of skilled and unskilled nonfarm workers rising in real terms and relative to those of farm workers. Possible policy changes, including reductions in barriers to labor mobility and improvements in rural education, could more than offset these negative impacts and facilitate the development of China's economy.

To analyze the main determinants of secondary market prices of Bulgarian Brady Bonds, the authors investigate to what extent fluctuations in domestic fundamentals affect the bonds secondary market price. They also assess the extent to which external shocks affect the bonds prices. They estimate the long-term relationship between domestic fundamentals and market prices of bonds, using co-integration techniques. In the long-run, they find that gross foreign reserves and exports had a positive effect on bond prices and the real exchange rate and Mexico's nominal exchange rate depreciation had a negative effect. In the short run, the Asian crisis had a negative impact, and Bulgaria's change in political regime and introduction of a currency board had a positive impact. Mexico's economic crisis in 1995 had contagion effects. The authors' empirical results confirm the view that the so-called fundamentals approach should be used to supplement the analysis of spillover effects for Bulgaria Brady bonds.

Productivity increases in some French agricultural sectors and their distribution. A lot of studies concern the measurement of the productivity growth of the whole agricultural sector. These analyses are often limited because the evolution of the conditions of production are very different according to the products. This paper aims at analysing the generation and the distribution of productivity increases in some French agricultural sectors (soft wheat, corn , greenhouse vegetables, fruits, cattle, sheep, milk, pig, and poultries ), between 1979 and 1991. First, a simple econometric model is used to build the different products accounts, from the French RICA (FADN). Then, volumes, prices and productivity indexes are calculated for these products and the surplus accounting method is applied to study how the productivity increases are distributed. The results show that the conditions of the generation and distribution of productivity increases are very different according to the sectors. In the cereals sector, the productivity increases are very important : for the wheat, the rate of labour productivity is 6 % per year and the total rate of productivity 3 % per year. This productivity surplus is completely absorbed by the fall in prices, benefitting to customers of the cereal sector. It induces a great contribution in the surplus accounting of the animal sector : for example, the fall of prices of the intermediate consumptions represents, in the milk and pig sectors, half of the whole distributed surplus. In some animal sectors (cattle , for example ). the productivity increases are low but the costs of production fall, following the drop of prices of the intermediate consumptions. One of the interest of the surplus accounting method consists in allowing to study these relations between the different sectors and it may be used to follow the effects of the CAP reform., Cet article analyse la formation et la répartition des gains de productivité pour quelques grands secteurs de l'agriculture française (céréales, horticulture, arboriculture, productions herbivore et granivore), entre 1979 et 1991. Des comptes par produit sont d'abord établis, à partir du RICA. Sont calculés, ensuite, des indices de prix et de productivité pour ces différents secteurs et la méthode des compte de surplus est appliquée. L'étude montre qu'autant dans leur formation des gains de productivité que dans leur répartition, les situations sont très différentes selon les secteurs. Elle montre notamment les relations entre le secteur des céréales et celui des animaux, via le prix des aliments., Butault Jean-Pierre, Delame Nathalie, Rousselle Jean-Marc. Formation et répartition des gains de productivité dans l'agriculture française. Analyse par produit. In: Cahiers d'Economie et sociologie rurales, N°33, 4e trimestre 1994. pp. 55-72.

This paper attempts to grapple with the market mechanism through which growth in one sector of the economy spreads to other sectors. It calls into question Baumol’s argument for subsidies to the arts and by extension, to other economic areas that have not enjoyed productivity increases.