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The article discusses the public health law monitoring and its evaluation in the future of the data analytics.

Health risks are often communicated to the lay public in statistical formats even though low math skills, or innumeracy, have been found to be prevalent among lay individuals. Although numeracy has been a topic of much research investigation, the role of math self-efficacy and math anxiety on health and risk communication processing has received scant attention from health communication researchers. To advance theoretical and applied understanding regarding health message processing, the authors consider the role of math anxiety, including the effects of math self-efficacy, numeracy, and form of presenting statistics on math anxiety, and the potential effects for comprehension, yielding, and behavioral intentions. The authors also examine math anxiety in a health risk context through an evaluation of the effects of exposure to a message about genetically modified foods on levels of math anxiety. Participants (N = 323) were randomly assigned to read a message that varied the presentation of statistical evidence about potential risks associated with genetically modified foods. Findings reveal that exposure increased levels of math anxiety, with increases in math anxiety limiting yielding. Moreover, math anxiety impaired comprehension but was mediated by perceivers' math confidence and skills. Last, math anxiety facilitated behavioral intentions. Participants who received a text-based message with percentages were more likely to yield than participants who received either a bar graph with percentages or a combined form. Implications are discussed as they relate to math competence and its role in processing health and risk messages. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Accurate and timely detection of infectious disease outbreaks provides valuable information which can enable public health officials to respond to major public health threats in a timely fashion. However, disease outbreaks are often not directly observable. For surveillance systems used to detect outbreaks, noises caused by routine behavioral patterns and by special events can further complicate the detection task. Most existing detection methods combine a time series filtering procedure followed by a statistical surveillance method. The performance of this "two-step" detection method is hampered by the unrealistic assumption that the training data are outbreak-free. Moreover, existing approaches are sensitive to extreme values, which are common in real-world data sets. We considered the problem of identifying outbreak patterns in a syndrome count time series using Markov switching models. The disease outbreak states are modeled as hidden state variables which control the observed time series. A jump component is introduced to absorb sporadic extreme values that may otherwise weaken the ability to detect slow-moving disease outbreaks. Our approach outperformed several state-of-the-art detection methods in terms of detection sensitivity using both simulated and real-world data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The UK National Health Service introduced a pay for performance scheme for primary care providers in 2004/5. The scheme rewarded providers for the proportion of eligible patients who received appropriate treatment. Eligible patients were those who had been reported by the provider as having the relevant disease minus those they exception reported as not suitable for treatment. Using rich provider level data, we find that differences in reported disease rates between providers, and differences in exception rates both between and within providers, suggest gaming. Faced with ratio performance indicators, providers acted on denominators as well as numerators. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We used the recent lowering of the alcohol purchasing age in New Zealand to examine the proposition that routinely collected data are often insufficient in evaluating important policy changes. We estimated prechange and postchange incidence rate ratios for actual and hypothetical population sizes and hospital admissions related to alcohol poisoning and assaults. Even with a hypothetical youth population 10 times larger than New Zealand's actual youth population, comparisons were underpowered because there were too few observations. Governments should use the enactment of health legislation as an opportunity to build the research evidence base by ensuring that evaluations are initiated in advance. (Am J Public Health. 2009; 99:1212-1215. doi:10.21 05/AJPH. 2007.120212) [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article presents information on a computer application which generates data for use in evaluating visual analytics. Information visualization techniques can be tested using simulated nonaggregated public health surveillance data, which is based on actual syndromic surveillance data sets collected from emergency room departments. The system synthesizes two years worth of data, containing typical seasonal illness trends, into which disease outbreak signals can be arbitrarily placed. Other factors which can be manipulated include spatio-temporal distribution and demographic probabilities.

Objective: This study examined how consumer satisfaction ratings differ between mental health care providers to determine whether comparison of ratings is biased by differences in survey response rates or consumer characteristics. Methods: Consumer satisfaction surveys mailed by a mixed-model prepaid health plan were examined. Survey data were linked to computerized records regarding consumers' demographic (age, sex, and type of insurance coverage) and clinical (primary diagnosis and initial versus return visit) characteristics. Statistical models examined probabilities of returning the survey (N=8,025 returned surveys) and. of giving an excellent satisfaction rating. Variability was separated into within-provider effects and between-provider effects. Results: The overall response rate was 33.8%, and 49.9% of responders reported excellent satisfaction. Neither response rate nor satisfaction rating was related to primary diagnosis. Within the practices of individual providers, response rate and receiving an excellent rating were significantly associated with female sex, older age, longer enrollment in the health plan, and making a return visit. Analyses of between-provider effects, however, found that only a higher proportion of return visitors was significantly associated with higher response rates and higher satisfaction ratings. Conclusions: There was little evidence that differences in response rate or in consumers served biased comparison of satisfaction ratings between mental health providers. Bias might be greater in a setting with more heterogeneous consumers or providers. Returning consumers gave higher ratings than first-time visitors, and analyses of satisfaction ratings may need to account for this difference. Extremely high or low ratings should be interpreted cautiously, especially for providers with a small number of surveys. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article presents a study which examines the public health approach in antiretroviral treatment (ART) of HIV-positve persons in Malawi. It states that national quarterly and longitudinal cohort data from October 2004 to December 2006 were analyzed to determine the trend in ART treatment, results every quarter, and survival probability in 6 and 12 months treatment. Findings show that 85% to 88% increase in the survival probability of HIV patients treated with ART.

This article, the fifth in a series on HIV prevention, explains variables that affect the efficacy of HIV prevention programmes. The management of HIV prevention programs is discussed in terms of the potential for improving funding targeting, selection, and delivery of content in HIV prevention efforts are shared. Public health responses to the HIV epidemic are criticised for their lack of long term vision. The development of research into the specific demographic necessities of individual countries to understand what portions of their populations are at risk for HIV is encouraged. Case studies in which targets prevention efforts succeeded in Thailand, India and the Democratic Republic of Congo are cited. INSETS: Search strategy and selection criteria;Key messages.

The authors acknowledge the people who gave their comments on their article "Bivariate Binomial Spatial Modeling of Loa Ioa Prevalence in Tropical Africa" published within the journal. They agree to some comments on the spatial sparsity of the data used in their study. They think that the suggestion of using a hierarchical model with village and region random effects instead of continuous spatial smoothing is a good point.

This paper examines the determinants of regional public health expenditure in a decentralised health system. Unlike previous studies we take into account possible policy and political interactions among authorities, as well as unobserved heterogeneity. Our emprirical contribution lies in running a spatial panel specification using a dataset of all Spanish region states on aggregated and disaggregated health expenditures (pharmaceuticals, inpatient and primary care). Results are consistent with some degree of interdependence between neighboring regions in spending decisions. Empirical evidence of long term efficiency effects of health care decentralisation, suggests that a specific spatial-institutional design might improve the health system efficiency as well as regional cohesion. Political and scale effects are consistent with theoretical predictions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article focuses on a study conducted to analyze the efficacy of national hospital episode statistics in determining 30-day infant mortality rates following open congenital cardiac surgery compared to central cardiac audit database statistics. The researchers reviewed pediatric cardiac surgical outcomes in England and those from all units in Great Britain. Findings indicated that hospital episode statistics were unsatisfactory in assessing activity and outcomes in congenital heart surgery. Central cardiac audit database statistics were more accurate and complete, but require improvement in achieving fully comprehensive mortality risk assessment.

Health statistics are at the center of an increasing number of worldwide health controversies. Several factors are sharpening the tension between the supply and demand for high quality health information, and the health-related Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) provide a high-profile example. With thousands of indicators recommended but few measured well, the worldwide health community needs to focus its efforts on improving measurement of a small set of priority areas. Priority indicators should be selected on the basis of public-health significance and several dimensions of measurability. Health statistics can be divided into three types: crude, corrected, and predicted. Health statistics are necessary inputs to planning and strategic decision making, program implementation, monitoring progress toward targets, and assessment of what works and what does not. Crude statistics that are biased have no role in any of these steps; corrected statistics are preferred. For strategic decision making, when corrected statistics are unavailable, predicted statistics can play an important part. For monitoring progress towards agreed targets and assessment of what works and what does not, however, predicted statistics should not be used. Perhaps the most effective method to decrease controversy over health statistics and to encourage better primary data collection and the development of better analytical methods is a strong commitment to provision of an explicit data audit trail. This initiative would make available the primary data, all post-data collection adjustments, models including covariates used for farcasting and forecasting, and necessary documentation to the public. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article discusses data sources available related to the health conditions of the population and health care status in Germany. Mortality data from the cause of death statistics and diagnostic data of hospital patients from the hospital statistics of the Federal Statistical Office and the statistical offices of German states are used to describe the health situation. Specific data sources include the Federal Health Monitoring, medical registers and databases, health surveys, among others.

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the incidence of ectopic pregnancy in Yaounde, the capital of Cameroon (Central Africa). METHODS: In 2000, all women admitted for an ectopic pregnancy to health facilities in the city of Yaounde were systematically enrolled, Sociodemographic information on the women and their reproductive history was collected by questionnaire during a face-to-face interview. Medical and obstetrical data (clinical findings at hospital entry, medical history, type of surgery, and final vital status) were collected from gynecologic and surgical files and admission registers. RESULTS: We recorded 320 cases of ectopic pregnancy in health facilities in the city of Yaounde and we estimated that 40,100 live births occurred during the same study period (January to December 2000). The population-based incidence rate of ectopic pregnancy in the city of Yaounde was 0.79% (95% confidence interval 0.72%, 0.88%) in 2000. Three maternal deaths were recorded giving a mortality rate of 0.94% (95% confidence interval 0.32%, 2.72%). CONCLUSION: The 0.79% ectopic pregnancy incidence rate observed in this African country must be considered a minimum due to probable underestimation. Nevertheless, this rate is lower than that currently observed in industrialized countries. Late diagnosis, low percentage of conservative treatment, and subsequent maternal deaths are important findings that should encourage African gynecologists to promote ectopic pregnancy prevention programs and to improve the care given to women with ectopic pregnancy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Clinger and Van Ness have shown how to sample a stochastic process in a periodic manner such that the autocorrelation function for that process can be estimated at all lags. We derive approximate confidence intervals for these estimates, focusing on low-order autoregressive moving average processes. Our methods are illustrated with an example from plant disease epidemiology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The author reflects on the reliability of the statistics on sexually transmitted disease in Great Britain. In the author's view, even though the notification system and statistics in the country are better than in most countries, there are several drawbacks and omissions. For example, the notified figures relate to the number of cases, not patients, which means that a patient can reappear several times in the published statistics for a year, and can do so for several different reasons.

The article notes that in light of the World Health Organization's report "The World Health Report 2000," there has been a great deal of interest in health systems around the globe. They note that differences could easily be seen between developed and undeveloped/underdeveloped countries. The metrics used to quantify health statistics outside of developed countries were clearly not as accurate as they were in developed countries. They discuss advances that are being made to help these countries improved their reporting systems and invite papers that will address this issue.

The author comments on the article "Bivariate Binomial Spatial Modeling of Loa Ioa Prevalence in Tropical Africa," by Ciprian M. Crainiceanu, Peter J. Diggle and Barry Rowlingson published within the journal. He offers his congratulations to the authors for writing a thought-provoking article that addresses problems in public health. He believes that the strategy of moving between a complex Bayesian spatial analysis relying on MCMC and a fast approximation is appealing.

The author comments on the article "Bivariate Binomial Spatial Modeling of Loa Ioa Prevalence in Tropical Africa," by Ciprian M. Crainiceanu, Peter J. Diggle and Barry Rowlingson published within the journal. She thinks that the authors were able to demonstrate the potential for a field tool for Loa Ioa risk mapping that is practical and realizable. She commends the importance and relevance of the study on the Loa Ioa prevalence.

The article presents a study conducted to find the accuracy of recording the actual smoking history of patients admitted to hospitals. The study examined medical records of 100 patients to correlate between recording sites and final coding by the medical records personnel for reporting to public health statistics. The article states the findings, which suggests that the clinicians and coders need to be attentive in documenting smoking history.

The article discusses non-compliance in the design and conduct of randomized controlled trials (RCTs). Noncompliance can cause problems at the analysis stage. The ideas behind choosing complier average causal effect (CACE) to analyze trials involving noncompliance is presented. The only disadvantage of CACE approach is that it can produce wider confidence intervals than the ITT and per-protocol analyzes. The ITT is suggested as primary and the CACE as a secondary approach to analysis.

Provides data on the incidence of HIV infections in 32 U.S. states between 2000 and 2003. Rates of infection, including HIV infections with and without AIDS; Discussion of risk factors and classification of transmission in the data; Demographic details of HIV infections reported in the study; Rate of change in HIV infections in the U.S. between 2000 and 2003.

The article reviews the web site Childinfo: Monitoring the Situation of Children and Women, located at www.childinfo.org/, from UNICEF.

The article presents a reprint of the article "The Registration of Births," which originally appeared in the journal on May 16, 1908. The author discusses the need for an official record of vital statistics such as a registration of births and deaths to benefit public health in the U.S. He explains how a record of vital statistics can help health officials track the transmission and prevalence of infectious diseases.

Offers health-related news briefs. Increase in the number of pregnancies in England and Wales in 2003, according to the Office for National Statistics; Rise in the number of consultant and general practitioners working in the NHS, according to the Department of Health; Survey data from the Royal College of Physicians indicating refugee doctors find it difficult to find employment; The World Health Assembly's adoption of a resolution for disaster response; The introduction of an antismoking campaign by the European Commission.

Focuses on the use of capture-recapture methods in public health. Use of the method for the first time in 1662; Original form of the method; Application in demography in India in 1949; Estimation of population size in health applications; Study on incidence of acute flaccid paralysis in the issue; Individuals served by mental health services system; Requirement of exact matching of individuals.

Features a statistical methods symposium titled `Small Area Statistics in Public Health: Design, Analysis, Graphic and Spatial Methods,' in Atlanta, Georgia from January 25 to 26, 1995. Sponsors; List of areas the need abstracts; Contact information.