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This study aimed to introduce a novel Bayesian Mixture Model approach to the development of an EPV model in rugby league, which could produce a smooth pitch surface and estimate individual possession outcome probabilities. 99,966 observations from the 2021 Super League season were used. A set of 33 centres (30 in the field of play, 3 in the opposition try area) were located across the pitch. Each centre held the probability of five possession outcomes occurring (converted/unconverted try, penalty, drop goal and no points). Probabilities at each centre were interpolated to all locations on the pitch and estimated using a Bayesian approach. An EPV measure was derived from the possession outcome probabilities and their points value. The model produced a smooth pitch surface, which was able to provide different possession outcome probabilities and EPVs for every location on the pitch. Differences between team attacking and defensive plots were visualised and an actual vs expected player rating system was developed. The model provides significantly more flexibility than previous zonal approaches, allowing much more insightful results to be obtained. It could easily be adapted to other sports with similar data structures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Determining key performance indicators and classifying players accurately between competitive levels is one of the classification challenges in sports analytics. A recent study applied Random Forest algorithm to identify important variables to classify rugby league players into academy and senior levels and achieved 82.0% and 67.5% accuracy for backs and forwards. However, the classification accuracy could be improved due to limitations in the existing method. Therefore, this study aimed to introduce and implement feature selection technique to identify key performance indicators in rugby league positional groups and assess the performances of six classification algorithms. Fifteen and fourteen of 157 performance indicators for backs and forwards were identified respectively as key performance indicators by the correlation-based feature selection method, with seven common indicators between the positional groups. Classification results show that models developed using the key performance indicators had improved performance for both positional groups than models developed using all performance indicators. 5-Nearest Neighbour produced the best classification accuracy for backs and forwards (accuracy = 85% and 77%) which is higher than the previous method's accuracies. When analysing classification questions in sport science, researchers are encouraged to evaluate multiple classification algorithms and a feature selection method should be considered for identifying key variables. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aims to (a) quantify the movement patterns during rugby league match-play and (b) identify if differences exist by levels of competition within the movement patterns and units through the sequential movement pattern (SMP) algorithm. Global Positioning System data were analysed from three competition levels; four Super League regular (regular-SL), three Super League (semi-)Finals (final-SL) and four international rugby league (international) matches. The SMP framework extracted movement pattern data for each athlete within the dataset. Between competition levels, differences were analysed using linear discriminant analysis (LDA). Movement patterns were decomposed into their composite movement units; then Kruskal–Wallis rank-sum and Dunn post-hoc were used to show differences. The SMP algorithm found 121 movement patterns comprised mainly of "walk" and "jog" based movement units. The LDA had an accuracy score of 0.81, showing good separation between competition levels. Linear discriminant 1 and 2 explained 86% and 14% of the variance. The Kruskal–Wallis found differences between competition levels for 9 of 17 movement units. Differences were primarily present between regular-SL and international with other combinations showing less differences. Movement units which showed significant differences between competition levels were mainly composed of low velocities with mixed acceleration and turning angles. The SMP algorithm found 121 movement patterns across all levels of rugby league match-play, of which, 9 were found to show significant differences between competition levels. Of these nine, all showed significant differences present between international and domestic, whereas only four found differences present within the domestic levels. This study shows the SMP algorithm can be used to differentiate between levels of rugby league and that higher levels of competition may have greater velocity demands. Highlights This study shows that movement patterns and movement units can be used to investigate team sports through the application of the SMP framework One hundred and twenty-one movement patterns were found to be present within rugby league match-play, with the walk- and jog-based movement units most prevalent. No movement pattern was unique to a single competition level. Further analysis revealed that the majority of movement units analysed had significant differences between international and domestic rugby league, whereas only four movement units (i.e. f,m,n,q) had significant differences within the two domestic rugby league levels. International rugby league had higher occurrences of the movement patterns consisting of higher velocity movement units (ie. T,S,y). This suggests that international rugby league players may need greater high velocity exposure in training. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Athlete external load is typically quantified as volumes or discretised threshold values using distance, speed and time. A framework accounting for the movement sequences of athletes has previously been proposed using radio frequency data. This study developed a framework to identify sequential movement sequences using GPS-derived spatiotemporal data in team-sports and establish its stability. Thirteen rugby league players during one match were analysed to demonstrate the application of the framework. The framework (Sequential Movement Pattern-mining [SMP]) applies techniques to analyse i) geospatial data (i.e., decimal degree latitude and longitude), ii) determine players turning angles, iii) improve movement descriptor assignment, thus improving movement unit formation and iv) improve the classification and identification of players' frequent SMP. The SMP framework allows for sub-sequences of movement units to be condensed, removing repeated elements, which offers a novel technique for the quantification of similarities or dis-similarities between players and playing positions. The SMP framework provides a robust and stable method that allows, for the first time the analysis of GPS-derived data and identifies the frequent SMP of field-based team-sport athletes. The application of the SMP framework in practice could optimise the outcomes of training of field-based team-sport athletes by improving training specificity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose:This study investigated sources of variability in the overall and phase-specific running match characteristics in elite rugby league. Methods:Microtechnology data were collected from 11 Super League (SL) teams, across 322 competitive matches within the 2018 and 2019 seasons. Total distance, high-speed running (HSR) distance (>5.5 m·s−1), average speed, and average acceleration were assessed. Variability was determined using linear mixed models, with random intercepts specified for player, position, match, and club. Results:Large within-player coefficients of variation (CV) were found across whole match, ball-in-play, attack and defence for total distance (CV range = 24% to 35%) and HSR distance (37% to 96%), whereas small to moderate CVs (≤10%) were found for average speed and average acceleration. Similarly, there was higher between-player, -position, and -match variability in total distance and HSR distance when compared with average speed and average acceleration across all periods. All metrics were stable between-teams (≤5%), except HSR distance (16% to 18%). The transition period displayed the largest variability of all phases, especially for distance (up to 42%) and HSR distance (up to 165%). Conclusion:Absolute measures of displacement display large within-player and between-player, -position, and -match variability, yet average acceleration and average speed remain relatively stable across all match-periods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]