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OBJECTIVES: The Mount Hood Diabetes Challenge Network aimed to examine the impact of model structural uncertainty on the estimated cost-effectiveness of interventions for type 2 diabetes. METHODS: Ten independent modeling groups completed a blinded simulation exercise to estimate the cost-effectiveness of 3 interventions in 2 type 2 diabetes populations. Modeling groups were provided with a common baseline population, cost and utility values associated with different model health states, and instructions regarding time horizon and discounting. We collated the results to identify variation in predictions of net monetary benefit (NMB) and the drivers of those differences. RESULTS: Overall, modeling groups agreed which interventions had a positive NMB (ie, were cost-effective), Although estimates of NMB varied substantially-by up to £23 696 for 1 intervention. Variation was mainly driven through differences in risk equations for complications of diabetes and their implementation between models. The number of modeled health states was also a significant predictor of NMB. CONCLUSIONS: This exercise demonstrates that structural uncertainty between different health economic models affects cost-effectiveness estimates. Although it is reassuring that a decision maker would likely reach similar conclusions on which interventions were cost-effective using most models, the range in numerical estimates generated across different models would nevertheless be important for price-setting negotiations with intervention developers. Minimizing the impact of structural uncertainty on healthcare decision making therefore remains an important priority. Model registries, which record and compare the impact of structural assumptions, offer one potential avenue to improve confidence in the robustness of health economic modeling.

PURPOSE: Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is a progressive and debilitating chronic lung disease with a high symptom burden, which has a substantial impact on health-related quality of life (HRQoL). Our study aimed to assess the suitability of the EuroQol five-dimension (EQ-5D-5L) and the Assessment of Quality of Life- eight-dimension (AQoL-8D) questionnaires in measuring HRQoL as health state utility values (HSUVs) in an Australian IPF cohort. METHODS: Data for estimation of health state utility values (HSUVs) were collected from participants of the Australian IPF Registry (AIPFR) using self-administered surveys which included the EQ-5D-5L and the AQoL-8D. Data on lung function and disease specific HRQoL instruments were collected from the AIPFR. Performance of the two instruments was evaluated based on questionnaire practicality, agreement between the two instruments and test performance (internal and construct validity). RESULTS: Overall completion rates for the EQ-5D-5L and AQoL-8D were 96% and 85%, respectively. Mean (median) HSUVs were 0.65 (0.70) and 0.69 (0.72) for the EQ-5D-5L and AQoL-8D, respectively. There was reasonable agreement between the two instruments based on the Bland-Altman plot mean difference (-0.04) and intraclass correlation coefficient (0.84), however there were some fundamental differences. A larger range of values was observed with the EQ-5D-5L (-0.57-1.00 vs 0.16-1.00). The EQ-5D-5L had a greater divergent sensitivity and efficacy in relation to assessing HSUVs between clinical groupings. The AQoL-8D ,however, had a higher sensitivity to measure psychosocial aspects of HRQoL in IPF. CONCLUSION: The EQ-5D-5L demonstrated superior performance when compared to AQoL-8D in persons with IPF. This may be attributable to the high symptom burden which is physically debilitating to which the EQ-5D-5L may be more sensitive.

BACKGROUND: Health state utilities (HSU) are a health-related quality-of-life (HRQoL) input for cost-utility analyses used for resource allocation decisions, including medication reimbursement. New Zealand (NZ) guidelines recommend the EQ-5D instruments; however, the EQ-5D-5L may not sufficiently capture psychosocial health. We evaluated HRQoL among people with multiple sclerosis (MS) in NZ using the EQ-5D-5L and assessed the instrument's discriminatory sensitivity for a NZ MS cohort. METHODS: Participants were recruited from the NZ MS Prevalence Study. Participants self-completed a 45-min online survey that included the EQ-5D-5L/EQ-VAS. Disability severity was classified using the Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) to categorise participant disability as mild (EDSS: 0-3.5), moderate (EDSS: 4.0-6.0) and severe (EDSS: 6.5-9.5). Anxiety/depression were also measured using the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Score (HADS). In the absence of an EQ-5D-5L NZ tariff, HSUs were derived using an Australian tariff. We evaluated associations between HSUs and participant characteristics with linear regression models. RESULTS: 254 participants entered the study. Mean age was 55.2 years, 79.5% were female. Mean (SD) EQ-5D-5L HSU was 0.58 (0.33). Mean (SD) HSUs for disability categories were: mild 0.80 ± 0.17, moderate 0.57 ± 0.21 and severe 0.14 ± 0.32. Twelve percent reported HSU = 1.0 (i.e., no problems in any domain). Participants who had never used a disease-modifying therapy reported a lower mean HSU. Multivariable modelling found that the HADS anxiety score was not associated with EQ-5D-5L. CONCLUSIONS: HRQoL for people with MS in NZ was lower than comparable countries, including Australia. We suggest a comparison with other generic tools that may have improved sensitivity to mental health.

BACKGROUND: Multiple sclerosis (MS) is an inflammatory, neurodegenerative disease of the central nervous system which results in disability over time and reduced quality of life. To increase the sensitivity of the EQ-5D-5L for psychosocial health, four bolt-on items from the AQoL-8D were used to create the nine-item EQ-5D-5L-Psychosocial. We aimed to externally validate the EQ-5D-5L-Psychosocial in a large cohort of people with MS (pwMS) and explore the discriminatory power of the new instrument with EQ-5D-5L/AQoL-8D. METHODS: A large representative sample from the Australian MS Longitudinal Study completed the AQoL-8D and EQ-5D-5L (including EQ VAS) and both instruments health state utilities (HSUs) were scored using Australian tariffs. Sociodemographic/clinical data were also collected. External validity of EQ-5D-5L-Psychosocial scoring algorithm was assessed with mean absolute errors (MAE) and Spearman's correlation coefficient. Discriminatory sensitivity was assessed with an examination of ceiling/floor effects, and disability severity classifications. RESULTS: Among 1683 participants (mean age: 58.6 years; 80% female), over half (55%) had moderate or severe disability. MAE (0.063) and the distribution of the prediction error were similar to the original development study. Mean (± standard deviation) HSUs were EQ-5D-5L: 0.58 ± 0.32, EQ-5D-5L-Psychosocial 0.62 ± 0.29, and AQoL-8D: 0.63 ± 0.20. N = 157 (10%) scored perfect health (i.e. HSU = 1.0) on the EQ-5D-5L, but reported a mean HSU of 0.90 on the alternative instruments. The Sleep bolt-on dimension was particularly important for pwMS. CONCLUSIONS: The EQ-5D-5L-Psychosocial is more sensitive than the EQ-5D-5L in pwMS whose HSUs approach those reflecting full health. When respondent burden is taken into account, the EQ-5D-5L-Psychosocial is preferential to the AQoL-8D. We suggest a larger confirmatory study comparing all prevalent multi-attribute utility instruments for pwMS.

BACKGROUND: There are substantial advances in diagnosis and treatment for idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF), but without much evidence available on recent mortality and survival trends. METHODS: A narrative synthesis approach was used to investigate the mortality trends, then meta-analyses for survival trends were carried out based on various time periods. RESULTS: Six studies reported the mortality data for IPF in 22 countries, and 62 studies (covering 63 307 patients from 20 countries) reported survival data for IPF. Age-standardised mortality for IPF varied from ∼0.5 to ∼12 per 100 000 population per year after year 2000. There were increased mortality trends for IPF in Australia, Brazil, Belgium, Canada, Czech Republic, Finland, France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Spain, Sweden and UK, while Austria, Croatia, Denmark, Romania and the USA showed decreased mortality trends. The overall 3-year and 5-year cumulative survival rates (CSRs) were 61.8% (95% CI 58.7-64.9; I2=97.1%) and 45.6% (95% CI 41.5-49.7; I2=97.7%), respectively. Prior to 2010, the pooled 3-year CSR was 59.9% (95% CI 55.8-64.1; I2=95.8%), then not significantly (p=0.067) increased to 66.2% (95% CI 62.9-69.5; I2=92.6%) in the 2010s decade. After excluding three studies in which no patients received antifibrotics after year 2010, the pooled 3-year CSRs significantly (p=0.039) increased to 67.4% (95% CI 63.9-70.9; I2=93.1%) in the 2010s decade. DISCUSSION: IPF is a diagnosis associated with high mortality. There was no observed increasing survival trend for patients with IPF before year 2010, with then a switch to an improvement, which is probably multifactorial.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the impacts of changing a model of care and employing general practitioners (GPs) within residential aged care facilities (RACFs) on costs to the aged care provider (ACP) and state and federal governments of Australia. METHODS: This study was a cost analysis of a prospective, stepped-wedge, cluster randomised trial. All financial data from the ACP for every RACF involved, before and after implementation of the new model were obtained. Costs of hospital transfers, admissions, ambulance usage and GP consultations were calculated. Costs of new infrastructure, recruiting and training new staff were accounted for. Costs were standardised to 2019 Australian Dollars per occupied bed day (OBD). RESULTS: Implementation of the new model of care resulted in overall cost savings of $9.7 per OBD to the ACP, with increased salary costs offset by increased federal government subsidies and Medicare claims income. Costs to the federal government increased by $19.6 per OBD, driven by increases in subsides. Costs savings of $3.0 per OBD to state governments were seen, driven by decreased costs of hospital transfers. CONCLUSIONS: Implementation of a model of care including GPs employed at RACFs had a mixed impact on costs depending on perspective, with overall savings to the ACP and state government perspective.

OBJECTIVE: Health state utility values (HSUVs) are a key input in health economic modeling, but HSUVs of people with osteoarthritis (OA)-related conditions have not been systematically reviewed and meta-analyzed. Our objective was to systematically review and meta-analyze the HSUVs for people with OA. METHODS: Searches within health economic/biomedical databases were performed to identify eligible studies reporting OA-related HSUVs. Data on study design, participant characteristics, affected OA joint sites, treatment type, HSUV elicitation method, considered health states, and the reported HSUVs were extracted. HSUVs for people with knee, hip, and mixed OA in pre- and posttreatment populations were meta-analyzed using random effects models. RESULTS: A total of 151 studies were included in the systematic review, and 88 in meta-analyses. Of 151 studies, 56% were conducted in Europe, 75% were in people with knee and/or hip OA, and 79% were based on the EuroQoL 5-dimension instrument. The pooled mean baseline HSUVs for knee OA core interventions, medication, injection, and primary surgery treatments were 0.64 (95% confidence interval [95% CI] 0.61-0.66), 0.56 (95% CI 0.45-0.68), 0.58 (95% CI 0.50-0.66), and 0.52 (95% CI 0.49-0.55), respectively. These were 0.71 (95% CI 0.59-0.84) for hip OA core interventions and 0.52 (95% CI 0.49-0.56) for hip OA primary surgery. For all knee OA treatments and hip OA primary surgery, pooled HSUVs were significantly higher in the post- than the pretreatment populations. CONCLUSION: This study provides a comprehensive summary of OA-related HSUVs and generates an HSUV database for people with different affected OA joint sites undergoing different treatments to guide HSUV choices in future health economic modeling of OA interventions.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is one of the most common forms of interstitial lung diseases. While studies have been conducted in other countries to determine the epidemiological burden of IPF, there is limited information in Australia. Our study aimed to address this gap and generate the first estimates for the mortality, incidence and prevalence of IPF in Australia. METHODS: Estimates were generated by utilizing the novel Mortality Incidence Analysis Model (MIAMOD) method and software based on the illness-death model. Data inputs included population estimates and mortality data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) for the period 1997-2015 and participant data from the Australian IPF Registry (AIPFR). Projections were estimated for a 10-year period up to 2025. RESULTS: Overall crude and age-standardized estimates for mortality were 5.9 and 6.3 per 100,000 population; incidence, 10.4 and 11.2 per 100,000 population; and prevalence, 32.6 and 35.1 per 100,000 population. Crude and age-standardized mortality, incidence and prevalence increased over the study period; however, they demonstrated a decreasing trend over the projected period. Persons older than 70 years constituted 9% of the population; however, they accounted for approximately 82%-83% of all deaths, incident and prevalent cases. All estimates were higher in males than in females. CONCLUSION: Our study provides the first estimates for incidence, prevalence and mortality of IPF in Australia. By reporting national estimates for IPF, our study addresses an information gap important for policy, planning and to help optimize the allocation of resources for the management of patients with IPF.

AIMS: Our study aimed to identify the common themes, knowledge gaps and to evaluate the quality of data linkage research on diabetes in Australia. METHODS: This systematic review was developed in accordance with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (the PRISMA Statement). Six biomedical databases and the Australian Population Health Research Network (PHRN) website were searched. A narrative synthesis was conducted to comprehensively identify the common themes and knowledge gaps. The guidelines for studies involving data linkage were used to appraise methodological quality of included studies. RESULTS: After screening and hand-searching, 118 studies were included in the final analysis. Data linkage publications confirmed negative health outcomes in people with diabetes, reported risk factors for diabetes and its complications, and found an inverse association between primary care use and hospitalization. Linked data were used to validate data sources and diabetes instruments. There were limited publications investigating healthcare expenditure and adverse drug reactions (ADRs) in people with diabetes. Regarding methodological assessment, important information about the linkage performed was under-reported in included studies. CONCLUSIONS: In the future, more up to date data linkage research addressing costs of diabetes and its complications in a contemporary Australian setting, as well as research assessing ADRs of recently approved antidiabetic medications, are required.

INTRODUCTION: Real-time continuous glucose monitoring (rt-CGM) allows patients with diabetes to adjust insulin dosing, potentially improving glucose control. This study aimed to compare the long-term cost-effectiveness of the Dexcom G6 rt-CGM device versus self-monitoring of blood glucose (SMBG) and flash glucose monitoring (FGM) in Australia in people with type 1 diabetes (T1D). METHODS: Long-term costs and clinical outcomes were estimated using the CORE Diabetes Model. Clinical input data for the analysis of rt-CGM versus SMBG and FGM were sourced from the DIAMOND study and a network meta-analysis, respectively. Rt-CGM and FGM were associated with quality of life (QoL) benefits due to reduced fear of hypoglycaemia (FoH) and fingerstick testing. Analyses were performed over a lifetime time horizon from an Australian healthcare payer perspective, including direct costs from published data. Future costs and clinical outcomes were discounted at 5% per annum. RESULTS: Rt-CGM was associated with an increased quality-adjusted life expectancy of 1.199 quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), increased mean total lifetime costs of AUD 21,596 and an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of AUD 18,020 per QALY gained compared with SMBG. Compared with FGM, rt-CGM was associated with an increased quality-adjusted life expectancy of 0.569 QALYs, increased mean total lifetime costs of AUD 11,064 and an ICER of AUD 19,455 per QALY gained. Key drivers of outcomes included HbA1c benefits and QoL benefits associated with reduced FoH and fingerstick testing. CONCLUSIONS: Due to improved clinical outcomes and QoL gains rt-CGM is highly cost-effective compared with SMBG and FGM in people with T1D in Australia.

BACKGROUND: Structural uncertainty can affect model-based economic simulation estimates and study conclusions. Unfortunately, unlike parameter uncertainty, relatively little is known about its magnitude of impact on life-years (LYs) and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) in modeling of diabetes. We leveraged the Mount Hood Diabetes Challenge Network, a biennial conference attended by international diabetes modeling groups, to assess structural uncertainty in simulating QALYs in type 2 diabetes simulation models. METHODS: Eleven type 2 diabetes simulation modeling groups participated in the 9th Mount Hood Diabetes Challenge. Modeling groups simulated 5 diabetes-related intervention profiles using predefined baseline characteristics and a standard utility value set for diabetes-related complications. LYs and QALYs were reported. Simulations were repeated using lower and upper limits of the 95% confidence intervals of utility inputs. Changes in LYs and QALYs from tested interventions were compared across models. Additional analyses were conducted postchallenge to investigate drivers of cross-model differences. RESULTS: Substantial cross-model variability in incremental LYs and QALYs was observed, particularly for HbA1c and body mass index (BMI) intervention profiles. For a 0.5%-point permanent HbA1c reduction, LY gains ranged from 0.050 to 0.750. For a 1-unit permanent BMI reduction, incremental QALYs varied from a small decrease in QALYs (-0.024) to an increase of 0.203. Changes in utility values of health states had a much smaller impact (to the hundredth of a decimal place) on incremental QALYs. Microsimulation models were found to generate a mean of 3.41 more LYs than cohort simulation models (P = 0.049). CONCLUSIONS: Variations in utility values contribute to a lesser extent than uncertainty captured as structural uncertainty. These findings reinforce the importance of assessing structural uncertainty thoroughly because the choice of model (or models) can influen

BACKGROUND: ME/CFS is a disorder characterized by recurrent fatigue and intolerance to exertion which manifests as profound post-exertional malaise. Prevalence studies internationally have reported highly variable results due to the 20 + diagnostic criteria. For Australia, the prevalence of ME/CFS based on current case definitions is unknown. OBJECTIVES: To report prevalence of ME/CFS in patients aged ≥ 13 years attending Australian primary care settings for years 2015-2019, and provide context for patterns of primary care attendance by people living with ME/CFS. METHODOLOGY: Conducted in partnership with the Patient Advisory Group, this study adopted a mixed methods approach. De-identified primary care data from the national MedicineInsight program were analyzed. The cohort were regularly attending patients, i.e. 3 visits in the preceding 2 years. Crude prevalence rates were calculated for years 2015-2019, by sex, 10-year age groups, remoteness and socioeconomic status. Rates are presented per 100,000population (95% confidence intervals (CI)). Qualitative data was collected through focus groups and in-depth 1:1 interview. RESULTS: Qualitative evidence identified barriers to reaching diagnosis, and limited interactions with primary care due to a lack of available treatments/interventions, stigma and disbelief in ME/CFS as a condition. In each year of interest, crude prevalence in the primary care setting ranged between 94.9/100,000 (95% CI: 91.5-98.5) and 103.9/100,000 population (95%CI: 100.3-107.7), equating to between 20,140 and 22,050 people living with ME/CFS in Australia in 2020. Higher rates were observed for age groups 50-59 years and 40-49 years. Rates were substantially higher in females (130.0-141.4/100,000) compared to males (50.9-57.5/100,000). In the context of the qualitative evidence, our prevalence rates likely represent an underestimate of the true prevalence of ME/CFS in the Australian primary care setting. CONCLUSION: ME/CFS affects a substantial

INTRODUCTION: Generic multiattribute utility instruments (MAUIs) are efficient tools for determining and enumerating health-related quality of life. MAUIs accomplish this by generating health state utilities (HSUs) via algorithms. Minimal important differences (MIDs) assist with the interpretation of HSUs by estimating minimum changes that are clinically significant. The overall goal of the proposed systematic review and meta-analysis is the development of comprehensive guidelines for MID estimation. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: This protocol defines a systematic review and meta-analysis of MIDs for generic MAUIs. The proposed research will involve a comprehensive investigation of 10 databases (EconLit, IDEAs database, INAHTA database, Medline, PsycINFO, Embase, Emcare, JBIEBP and CINAHL) from 1 June 2022 to 7 June 2022, and will be performed and reported in accordance with several validated guidelines, principally the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines. The quality of papers, considered for inclusion in the review, will be appraised using the COnsensus-based Standards for the selection of health Measurement INstruments, inter alia.Narrative analysis will involve identifying the characteristics of MIDs including methods of calculation, sources of heterogeneity, and validation. Meta-analysis will also be conducted. The descriptive element of meta-analysis will involve the generation of I2 statistics and Galbraith plots of MID heterogeneity. Together with narrative analysis, this will allow sources of MID heterogeniety to be identified. A multilevel mixed model, estimated via restricted maximum likelihood estimation, will be constructed for the purposes of meta-regression. Meta-regression will attempt to enumerate the effects of sources of heterogeneity on MID estimates. Meta-analysis will be concluded with pooling of MIDs via a linear random-effects model. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethics approval is not required for this review, a

Osteoarthritis (OA) is a common joint disorder for which there is no cure. Current treatments are suboptimal. Exercise is a core treatment for knee OA, with muscle strengthening exercise commonly recommended. Yoga is a mind-body exercise intervention that can improve flexibility, muscle strength, balance, and fitness and potentially reduce symptoms of OA. However, there is a scarcity of robust, high-quality conclusive evidence on the efficacy of yoga in knee OA. We are currently conducting the first randomised comparative effectiveness and cost-effectiveness trial of a yoga program compared with a strengthening exercise program in patients with symptomatic knee OA. This study protocol describes the design and conduct of this trial. The YOGA study is a phase III, single-centre, parallel, superiority, randomised, active-controlled trial which will be conducted in Hobart, Australia. One hundred and twenty-six participants (63 in each arm) aged over 40 years with symptomatic knee OA will be recruited from the community and randomly allocated to receive either a 24-week yoga program (3×/week) or a strengthening exercise program (3×/week). The primary outcome will be change in knee pain over 12 weeks, assessed using a 100 mm visual analogue scale (VAS). The secondary outcomes include change in knee pain, patient global assessment, physical function, quality of life, gait speed, biomarkers, and others over 12 and 24 weeks. We will also assess whether the presence of neuropathic pain moderates the effects of yoga compared to strengthening exercise. Additional data, such as cost and resource utilization, will be collected for the cost-effectiveness analysis. The primary analysis will be conducted using an intention-to-treat approach. Adverse events will be monitored throughout the study. Once completed, this trial will contribute to the knowledge of whether yoga can be used as a simple, effective, low-cost option for the management of knee OA, thus saving economic costs in t

AIMS: This study aimed to investigate maternal preferences for gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) screening options in rural China to identify an optimal GDM screening strategy. METHODS: Pregnant women at 24-28 gestational weeks were recruited from Shandong province, China. A discrete choice experiment (DCE) was conducted to elicit pregnant women's preferences for GDM screening strategy defined by five attributes: number of blood draws, out-of-pocket costs, screening waiting-time, number of hospital visits, and positive diagnosis rate. A mixed logistic model was employed to quantify maternal preferences, and to estimate the relative importance of included attributes in determining pregnant women's preferences for two routinely applied screening strategies ("one-step": 75 g oral glucose tolerance test [OGTT] and "two-step": 50 g glucose challenge-test plus 75 g OGTT). Preference heterogeneity was also investigated. RESULTS: N = 287 participants completed the DCE survey. All five predefined attributes were associated with pregnant women's preferences. Diagnostic rate was the most influential attribute (17.5 vs. 8.0%, OR: 2.89; 95%CI: 2.10 to 3.96). When changes of the attributes of "two-step" to "one-step" strategies, women's uptake probability from full "two-step" to "one-step" significantly increased with 71.3% (95%CI: 52.2 to 90.1%), but no significant difference with the first step of "two-step" (-31.0%, 95%CI: -70.2 to 8.1%). CONCLUSION: Chinese pregnant women preferred the "one-step" screening strategy to the full "two-step" strategy, but were indifferent between "one-step" and the first step of "two-step" strategies.

OBJECTIVE: To comprehensively synthesize the evolution of health-economic evaluation models (HEEMs) of all osteoarthritis (OA) interventions, including preventions, core treatments, adjunct nonpharmacologic interventions, pharmacologic interventions, and surgical treatments. METHODS: The literature was searched within health-economic/biomedical databases. Data extracted included OA type, population characteristics, model setting/type/events, study perspective, and comparators; the reporting quality of the studies was also assessed. The review protocol was registered at the International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews (CRD42018092937). RESULTS: Eighty-eight studies were included. Pharmacologic and surgical interventions were the focus in 51% and 44% of studies, respectively. Twenty-four studies adopted a societal perspective (with increasing popularity after 2013), but most (63%) did not include indirect costs. Quality-adjusted life years was the most popular outcome measure since 2008. Markov models were used by 62% of studies, with increasing popularity since 2008. Until 2010, most studies used short-to-medium time horizons; subsequently, a lifetime horizon became popular. A total of 86% of studies reported discount rates (predominantly between 3% and 5%). Studies published after 2002 had a better coverage of OA-related adverse events (AEs). Reporting quality significantly improved after 2001. CONCLUSION: OA HEEMs have evolved and improved substantially over time, with the focus shifting from short-to-medium-term pharmacologic decision-tree models to surgical-focused lifetime Markov models. Indirect costs of OA are frequently not considered, despite using a societal perspective. There was a lack of reporting sensitivity of model outcome to input parameters, including discount rate, OA definition, and population parameters. While the coverage of OA-related AEs has improved over time, it is still not comprehensive.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: This study was undertaken to identify clinically meaningful comorbidity patterns and their associations with the demographic/clinical characteristics of people with multiple sclerosis (MS). METHODS: We conducted latent class analysis to identify clinically distinct comorbidity patterns in MS using the 15 most common comorbidities among 1518 Australian Multiple Sclerosis Longitudinal Study participants. The associations between demographic/clinical characteristics and comorbidity patterns were examined using log-binomial and multinomial logistic regression. RESULTS: Five distinct comorbidity patterns were identified: "minimally diseased class" (30.8%), consisting of participants with no or one comorbidity; "metabolic class" (22.7%); "mental health-allergy class" (21.7%); "nonmetabolic class" (7.6%); and "severely diseased class" (7.0%), consisting of participants with higher prevalence of these comorbidities. The relative probabilities of being assigned to comorbidity classes compared to the minimally diseased class were significantly increased for participants who were older (metabolic: relative risk ratio [RRR] = 1.09, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.06-1.11; nonmetabolic: RRR = 1.07, 95% CI = 1.04-1.11; severely diseased: RRR = 1.04, 95% CI = 1.01-1.08), female (nonmetabolic: RRR = 5.35, 95% CI = 1.98-14.42; severely diseased: RRR = 2.21, 95% CI = 1.02-4.77), and obese (metabolic: RRR = 4.06, 95% CI = 2.45-6.72; mental health-allergy: RRR = 1.57, 95% CI = 1.00-2.46; severely diseased: RRR = 4.53, 95% CI = 2.21-9.29) and who had moderate disability (mental health-allergy: RRR = 2.32, 95% CI = 1.47-3.64; severely diseased: RRR = 2.65, 95% CI = 1.16-6.04). CONCLUSIONS: Comorbidity patterns exist in MS. Women, people who were older, people who were obese, and people who had higher disability levels were more likely to be in classes with higher levels of comorbidity. These findings may offer opportunities for designing more personalised approac

BACKGROUND: B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) is commonly used as a diagnostic method for patients with heart failure. This study was designed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of BNP compared to standard clinical assessment in outpatients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) in Tehran, Iran. METHODS: This study was a cost-effectiveness analysis carried on 400 HFrEF outpatients > 45 years who were admitted to Rasoul Akram General Hospital of Tehran, Iran. A Markov model with a lifetime horizon was developed to evaluate economic and clinical outcomes for BNP and standard clinical assessment. Quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), direct, and indirect costs collected from the patients. RESULTS: The results of this study indicated that mean QALYs and cost were estimated to be 2.18 QALYs and $1835 for BNP and 2.07 and $2376 for standard clinical assessment, respectively. In terms of reducing costs and increasing QALYs, BNP was dominant compared to standard clinical assessment. Also, BNP had an 85% probability of being cost-effective versus standard clinical assessment if the willingness to pay threshold is higher than $20,800/QALY gained. CONCLUSION: Based on the results of the present study, measuring BNP levels represents good value for money, decreasing costs and increasing QALYs compared to standard clinical assessment. It is suggested that the costs of the BNP test be covered by insurance in Iran. The result of the current study has important implications for policymakers in developing clinical guidelines for the diagnosis of heart failure.

This paper assessed the transition probabilities between the stages of hypertension severity and the length of time an individual might spend at a particular disease state using the new American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association hypertension blood pressure guidelines. Data for this study were drawn from the Ghana WHO SAGE longitudinal study, with an analytical sample of 1884 across two waves. Using a multistate Markov model, we estimated a seven-year transition probability between normal/elevated blood pressure (systolic ≤ 129 mm Hg & diastolic <80 mm Hg), stage 1 (systolic 130-139 mm Hg & diastolic 80-89 mm Hg), and stage 2 (systolic ≥140mm Hg & diastolic≥90 mm Hg) hypertension and adjusted for the individual effects of anthropometric, lifestyle, and socio-demographic factors. At baseline, 22.5% had stage 1 hypertension and 52.2% had stage 2 hypertension. The estimated seven-year transition probability for the general population was 19.0% (95% CI: 16.4, 21.8) from normal/elevated blood pressure to stage 1 hypertension, 31.6% (95% CI: 27.6, 35.4%) from stage 1 hypertension to stage 2 hypertension, and 48.5% (45.6, 52.1%) for remaining at stage 2. Other factors such as being overweight, obese, female, aged 60+ years, urban residence, low education and high income were associated with an increased probability of remaining at stage 2 hypertension. However, consumption of recommended servings of fruits and vegetables per day was associated with a delay in the onset of stage 1 hypertension and a recovery to normal/elevated blood pressure. This is the first study to show estimated transition probabilities between the stages of hypertension severity across the lifespan in sub-Saharan Africa. The results are important for understanding progression through hypertension severity and can be used in simulating cost-effective models to evaluate policies and the burden of future healthcare.

ISSUE ADDRESSED: Physical activity is lower and rates of preventable common diseases are higher in regional/rural than urban Australia. Active commuting (walking/bicycling to get from one place to another) may benefit health through increased physical activity, but most evidence of its correlates come from urban studies. This study aimed to investigate associations between active commuting, socio-demographic characteristics, behaviours, total physical activity and health in a regional/rural Australian state. METHODS: This study used data from the 2016 Tasmanian Population Health Survey, a representative cross-sectional self-report survey of 6,300 adults in Tasmania, Australia. Logistic regression modelling investigated associations between socio-demographic, behavioural and health characteristics and past week active commuting frequency. RESULTS: In multivariable models, being younger, having tertiary qualifications, living in a socio-economically advantaged area, being physically active, having a healthy body mass index and good/excellent self-rated health were associated with engaging in more active commuting. Inner regional dwellers were no more likely than outer regional dwellers to actively commute after covariate adjustment. CONCLUSION: Strategies to promote active commuting in regional/rural areas might consider targeting older adults, those less educated, those living in socio-economically disadvantaged areas, those less physically active, those with poorer health and those with higher body mass index. Research could further investigate why these groups appear to be less active for commuting purposes. SO WHAT?: Increasing physical activity and active commuting may help to reduce rates of preventable common diseases in regional/remote areas.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Tables reporting life expectancies by common risk factors are available for individuals with type 2 diabetes; however, there is currently no published equivalent for individuals with type 1 diabetes. We aimed to develop a life expectancy table using a recently published simulation model for individuals with type 1 diabetes. METHODS: The simulation model was developed using data from a real-world population of patients with type 1 diabetes selected from the Swedish National Diabetes Register. The following six important risk factors were included in the life table: sex; age; current smoking status; BMI; eGFR; and HbA1c. For each of 1024 cells in the life expectancy table, a synthetic cohort containing 1000 individuals was created, with other risk factors assigned values representative of the real-world population. The simulations were executed for all synthetic cohorts and life expectancy for each cell was calculated as mean survival time of the individuals in the respective cohort. RESULTS: There was a substantial variation in life expectancy across patients with different risk factor levels. Life expectancy of 20-year-old men varied from 29.3 years to 50.6 years, constituting a gap of 21.3 years between those with worst and best risk factor levels. In 20-year-old women, this gap was 18.9 years (life expectancy range 35.0-53.9 years). The variation in life expectancy was a function of the combination of risk factor values, with HbA1c and eGFR consistently showing a negative and positive correlation, respectively, with life expectancy at any level combination of other risk factors. Individuals with the lowest level (20 kg/m2) and highest level of BMI (35 kg/m2) had a lower life expectancy compared with those with a BMI of 25 kg/m2. Non-smokers and women had a higher life expectancy than smokers and men, respectively, with the difference in life expectancy ranging from 0.4 years to 2.7 years between non-smokers and smokers, and from 1.9 years to 5.9 y

BACKGROUND: Smoke from uncontrolled wildfires and deliberately set prescribed burns has the potential to produce substantial population exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2·5). We aimed to estimate historical health costs attributable to smoke-related PM2·5 from all landscape fires combined, and the relative contributions from wildfires and prescribed burns, in New South Wales, Australia. METHODS: We quantified PM2·5 from all landscape fire smoke (LFS) and estimated the attributable health burden and daily health costs between July 1, 2000, and June 30, 2020, for all of New South Wales and by smaller geographical regions. We combined these results with a spatial database of landscape fires to estimate the relative total and per hectare health costs attributable to PM2·5 from wildfire smoke (WFS) and prescribed burning smoke (PBS). FINDINGS: We estimated health costs of AU$ 2013 million (95% CI 718-3354; calculated with the 2018 value of the AU$). $1653 million (82·1%) of costs were attributable to WFS and $361 million (17·9%) to PBS. The per hectare health cost was of $105 for all LFS days ($104 for WFS and $477 for PBS). In sensitivity analyses, the per hectare costs associated with PBS was consistently higher than for WFS under a range of different scenarios. INTERPRETATION: WFS and PBS produce substantial health costs. Total health costs are higher for WFS, but per hectare costs are higher for PBS. This should be considered when assessing the trade-offs between prescribed burns and wildfires. FUNDING: None.

Health economics uses quality adjusted life years (QALYs) to help healthcare decision makers. However, unlike life expectancy for which age- and sex-dependent national life tables are available, no general population norms exist to use as a benchmark against which to compare observed or modeled projections of QALYs in sub-populations or patients. We developed a 2-state Markov model to generate QALY population norms for the USA, UK, China and Australia. Annual age- and sex-specific probabilities of all-cause mortality were taken from life tables combined with general population country-specific age- and sex-specific health state utilities for the EQ-5D-3L (all countries); and SF-6D (Australia) multi-attribute utility instruments (MAUI). To validate our QALY benchmark model we found that the model closely predicted population life expectancies. Using EQ-5D-3L, undiscounted QALYs for males/females aged 18 years ranged 54.62/58.90 (USA), 55.55/60.21 (China), 57.11/60.16 (Australia), and 58.01/61.43 (UK) years. SF-6D benchmark QALYs for Australia were consistently lower than those generated from the EQ-5D-3L. The gap in undiscounted QALYs between the UK (highest) and the USA (lowest) was 2.53 QALYs in women and 3.39 QALYs in men aged 18 years. Our model's QALY population norms can be used for internal validation of future health economic models for the country-specific value sets for the instruments that we adopted, and when quantifying burden of disease in terms of QALYs lost due to illness compared to the general population. We have created a publicly available repository to continuously include QALY benchmarks that use country-specific value sets for other MAUIs and life expectancies.

BACKGROUND: No studies have assessed changes in employment survival in multiple sclerosis (MS) populations over recent decades, including the introduction of disease-modifying therapies (DMTs). OBJECTIVES: To evaluate factors associated with leaving employment due to MS; to assess whether the risk of leaving employment has changed over recent decades in Australia, stratified by MS phenotype. METHODS: We included 1240 participants who were working before MS diagnosis. Information on employment status, reasons for leaving employment and year of leaving were collected. Data were analysed using competing risk survival analysis. RESULTS: Males, progressive MS, lower education level and older age at diagnosis were associated with a higher sub-distribution hazard of leaving employment. Compared to the period before 2010, the sub-distribution hazard during 2010-2016 for relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) was reduced by 43% (sub-distribution hazard ratio (sHR) 0.67, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.50 to 0.90), while no significant reduction was seen for primary-progressive multiple sclerosis (PPMS) (sHR 1.25, 95% CI: 0.72 to 2.16) or secondary-progressive multiple sclerosis (SPMS) (sHR 1.37, 95% CI: 0.84 to 2.25). CONCLUSION: Males, people with progressive MS and those of lower education level were at higher risk of leaving employment. The differential changed risk of leaving employment between people with different MS phenotype after 2010 coincides with the increased usage of high-efficacy DMTs for RRMS.

BACKGROUND: The World Health Organization (WHO) has placed special emphasis on protecting households from health care expenditures. Many households face catastrophic health expenditures (CHEs) from a combination of economic poverty and financing the treatment of medical conditions. The present study aimed to measure the percentage of households facing catastrophic CHEs and the factors associated with the occurrence of CHEs in Shiraz, Iran in 2018. METHODS: The present cross-sectional study was performed on 740 randomly selected households from different districts of Shiraz, Iran in 2018 using a multi-stage sampling method. Data were collected using the Persian version of the "WHO Global Health Survey" questionnaire. CHEs were defined as health expenditures exceeding 40% of households' capacity to pay. Households living below the poverty line before paying for health services were excluded from the study. The associations between the households' characteristics and facing CHEs were determined using the Chi-Square test as well as multiple logistic regression modeling in SPSS 23.0 at the significance level of 5%. RESULTS: The results showed that 16.48% of studied households had faced CHEs. The higher odds of facing CHEs were observed in the households living in rented houses (OR = 3.14, P-value < 0.001), households with disabled members (OR = 27.98, P-value < 0.001), households with children under 5 years old (OR = 2.718, P-value = 0.02), and those without supplementary health insurance coverage (OR = 1.87, P-value = 0.01). CONCLUSION: CHEs may be reduced by increasing the use of supplementary health insurance coverage by individuals and households, increasing the support of the Social Security and the State Welfare Organizations for households with disabled members, developing programs such as the Integrated Child Care Programs, and setting home rental policies and housing policies for tenants.

Objectives: The cardiovascular outcomes challenge examined the predictive accuracy of 10 diabetes models in estimating hard outcomes in 2 recent cardiovascular outcomes trials (CVOTs) and whether recalibration can be used to improve replication. Methods: Participating groups were asked to reproduce the results of the Empagliflozin Cardiovascular Outcome Event Trial in Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus Patients (EMPA-REG OUTCOME) and the Canagliflozin Cardiovascular Assessment Study (CANVAS) Program. Calibration was performed and additional analyses assessed model ability to replicate absolute event rates, hazard ratios (HRs), and the generalizability of calibration across CVOTs within a drug class. Results: Ten groups submitted results. Models underestimated treatment effects (ie, HRs) using uncalibrated models for both trials. Calibration to the placebo arm of EMPA-REG OUTCOME greatly improved the prediction of event rates in the placebo, but less so in the active comparator arm. Calibrating to both arms of EMPA-REG OUTCOME individually enabled replication of the observed outcomes. Using EMPA-REG OUTCOME–calibrated models to predict CANVAS Program outcomes was an improvement over uncalibrated models but failed to capture treatment effects adequately. Applying canagliflozin HRs directly provided the best fit. Conclusions: The Ninth Mount Hood Diabetes Challenge demonstrated that commonly used risk equations were generally unable to capture recent CVOT treatment effects but that calibration of the risk equations can improve predictive accuracy. Although calibration serves as a practical approach to improve predictive accuracy for CVOT outcomes, it does not extrapolate generally to other settings, time horizons, and comparators. New methods and/or new risk equations for capturing these CV benefits are needed.

BACKGROUND: Public transport (PT) users typically accumulate more physical activity (PA) than private motor vehicle users yet redressing physical inactivity through transport-related PA (TRPA) interventions has received limited attention. Further, incentive-based strategies can increase leisure-time PA but their impact on TRPA, is unclear. This study's objective is to determine the impact of an incentive-based strategy on TRPA in a regional Australian setting. METHODS: trips4health is a single-blinded randomised controlled trial with a four-month intervention phase and subsequent six-month maintenance phase. Participants will be randomised to: an incentives-based intervention (bus trip credit for reaching bus trip targets, weekly text messages to support greater bus use, written PA guidelines); or an active control (written PA guidelines only). Three hundred and fifty adults (≥18 years) from southern Tasmania will be recruited through convenience methods, provide informed consent and baseline information, then be randomised. The primary outcome is change in accelerometer measured average daily step count at baseline and four- and ten-months later. Secondary outcomes are changes in: measured and self-reported travel behaviour (e.g. PT use), PA, sedentary behaviour; self-reported and measured (blood pressure, waist circumference, height, weight) health; travel behaviour perspectives (e.g. enablers/barriers); quality of life; and transport-related costs. Linear mixed model regression will determine group differences. Participant and PT provider level process evaluations will be conducted and intervention costs to the provider determined. DISCUSSION: trips4health will determine the effectiveness of an incentive-based strategy to increase TRPA by targeting PT use. The findings will enable evidence-informed decisions about the worthwhileness of such strategies. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ACTRN12619001136190. UNIVERSAL TRIAL NUMBER: U1111-1233-8050.

Health state utilities (HSUs) are health economic metrics that capture and assess health-related quality of life (HRQoL). They are essential in health-economic evaluations when calculating quality-adjusted life years. We investigated published studies reporting bariatric surgery-related HSUs elicited through direct or indirect (multiattribute utility instrument [MAUI]) patient-reported methods (PROSPERO registration number: CRD42019131725). Mean HSUs for different time points and HSU changes over time (where feasible) were meta-analysed using random-effects models. Of the 950 potentially relevant identified studies, n = 28 (2004-2018) qualified for data extraction, with n = 85 unique HSUs elicited mainly from the EQ-5D (88%). Most (75%) studies were published after 2013. The follow-up duration varied between studies and was often limited to 12 months. The pooled mean HSU was 0.72 (0.67-0.76) at baseline/presurgery (n = 18) and 0.84 (0.79-0.89) one-year postsurgery (n = 11), indicating a 0.11 (0.09-0.14) utility unit increment. EQ-5D showed the similar results. This positive difference can be partially explained by BMI and/or co-morbidities status improvement. This study provides a valuable summary of HSUs to future bariatric surgery-related cost-utility models. However, more well-designed higher-quality bariatric-related HSU studies are expected for future reviews to improve the available evidence. We suggest that researchers select an MAUI that is preferentially sensitive to the study population.

Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is one of the most common forms of interstitial lung disease presenting in persons 50 years and older. Through a comprehensive review of available studies, we aimed to assess health-related quality of life (HRQoL) of people living with IPF and the instruments used in this assessment.Searches were conducted up to May, 2020. Quality appraisal and data extraction were performed using pre-designed forms. Narrative synthesis approach was used to report results of the systematic review and a random effects model was used for the meta-analysis. A leave-one-out sensitivity analysis was performed, and a trim and fill method was used to assess publication bias.The review included 134 studies. The most used instruments to measure HRQoL were St George's Respiratory Questionnaire (SGRQ), Short Form 36 (SF36) and EuroQoL (EQ5D). Standardised mean scores (95% confidence interval) for these instruments were as follows: SGRQ total score: 44.72 (42.21-47.22); SF36 physical component score (PCS): 37.00 (34.74-39.26) SF36 mental component score (MCS): 50.18 (48.41-51.95); King's Brief Interstitial Lung Disease questionnaire total score: 58.38 (55.26-61.51); and EQ5D utility: 0.73 (0.68-0.79). Analysis of standardised means for both SGRQ and SF36 demonstrated worse scores in physical health domains as compared to mental health domains.This systematic review confirms that IPF negatively affected HRQoL, mostly impacting the physical health domains. This study also demonstrated that a diverse number of instruments are used to evaluate HRQoL. In view of this diversity, a standardised approach to measurement of HRQoL for IPF is important to ensure that comparisons made are reliable.

Obesity is a major risk factor for many chronic diseases and disabilities, with severe implications on morbidity and mortality among older adults. With an increasing prevalence of obesity among older adults in Ghana, it has become necessary to develop cost-effective strategies for its management and prevention. However, developing such strategies is challenging as body mass index (BMI)-specific utilization and costs required for cost-effectiveness analysis are not available in this population. Therefore, this study examines the associations between health services utilization as well as direct healthcare costs and overweight (BMI ≥25.00 and <30.00 kg/m2) and obesity (BMI ≥30.00 kg/m2) among older adults in Ghana. Data were used from a nationally representative, multistage sample of 3350 people aged 50+ years from the World Health Organization's Study on global AGEing and adult health (WHO-SAGE; 2014/15). Health service utilization was measured by the number of health facility visits over a 12-month period. Direct costs (2017 US dollars) included out-of-pocket payments and the National Health Insurance Scheme (NHIS) claims. Associations between utilization and BMI were examined using multivariable zero-inflated negative binomial regressions; and between costs and BMI using multivariable two-part regressions. Twenty-three percent were overweight and 13% were obese. Compared with normal-weight participants, overweight and obesity were associated with 75% and 159% more inpatient admissions, respectively. Obesity was also associated with 53% additional outpatient visits. One in five of the overweight and obese population had at least one chronic disease, and having chronic disease was associated with increased outpatient utilization. The average per person total costs for overweight was $78 and obesity was $132 compared with $35 for normal weight. The NHIS bore approximately 60% of the average total costs per person expended in 2014/15. Overweight and obese groups had si

Demand for bariatric surgery to treat severe and resistant obesity far outstrips supply. We aimed to comprehensively synthesise health economic evidence regarding bariatric surgery from 1995 to 2018 (PROSPERO registration number: CRD42018094189). Meta-analyses were conducted to calculate the annual cost changes "before" and "after" surgery, and cumulative cost differences between surgical and nonsurgical groups. An updated narrative review also summarized the full and partial health economic evaluations of surgery from September 2015. N = 101 studies were eligible for the qualitative analyses since 1995, with n = 24 studies after September 2015. Quality of reporting has increased, and the inclusion of complications/reoperations was predominantly contained in the full economic evaluations after September 2015. Technical improvements in surgery were also reflected across the studies. Sixty-one studies were eligible for the quantitative meta-analyses. Compared with no/conventional treatment, surgery was cost saving over a lifetime scenario. Additionally, consideration of indirect costs through sensitivity analyses increased cost savings. Medication cost savings were dominant in the before versus after meta-analysis. Overall, bariatric surgery is cost saving over the life course even without considering indirect costs. Health economists are hearing the call to present higher quality studies and include the costs of complications/reoperations; however, indirect costs and body contouring surgery are still not appropriately considered.

INTRODUCTION: Prior studies have revealed the increasing prevalence of obesity and its associated health effects among ageing adults in resource poor countries. However, no study has examined the long-term and economic impact of overweight and obesity in sub-Saharan Africa. Therefore, we quantified the long-term impact of overweight and obesity on life expectancy (LE), quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) and total direct healthcare costs. METHODS: A Markov simulation model projected health and economic outcomes associated with three categories of body mass index (BMI): healthy weight (18.5≤BMI <25.0); overweight (25.0≤BMI < 30.0) and obese (BMI ≥30.0 kg/m2) in simulated adult cohorts over a 50-year time horizon from age fifty. Costs were estimated from government and patient perspectives, discounted 3% annually and reported in 2017 US$. Mortality rates from Ghanaian lifetables were adjusted by BMI-specific all-cause mortality HRs. Published input data were used from the 2014/2015 Ghana WHO Study on global AGEing and adult health data. Internal and external validity were assessed. RESULTS: From age 50 years, average (95% CI) remaining LE for females were 25.6 (95% CI: 25.4 to 25.8), 23.5 (95% CI: 23.3 to 23.7) and 21.3 (95% CI: 19.6 to 21.8) for healthy weight, overweight and obesity, respectively. In males, remaining LE were healthy weight (23.0; 95% CI: 22.8 to 23.2), overweight (20.7; 95% CI: 20.5 to 20.9) and obesity (17.6; 95% CI: 17.5 to 17.8). In females, QALYs for healthy weight were 23.0 (95% CI: 22.8 to 23.2), overweight, 21.0 (95% CI: 20.8 to 21.2) and obesity, 19.0 (95% CI: 18.8 to 19.7). The discounted total costs per female were US$619 (95% CI: 616 to 622), US$1298 (95% CI: 1290 to 1306) and US$2057 (95% CI: 2043 to 2071) for healthy weight, overweight and obesity, respectively. QALYs and costs were lower in males. CONCLUSION: Overweight and obesity have substantial health and economic impacts, hence the urgent need for cost-effective preventive strateg

INTRODUCTION: Interstitial lung diseases are characterised by scarring of lung tissue that leads to reduced transfer of oxygen into the blood, decreased exercise capacity and premature death. Ambulatory oxygen therapy may be used to treat exertional oxyhaemoglobin desaturation, but there is little evidence to support its efficacy and there is wide variation in clinical practice. This study aims to compare the clinical efficacy and cost-effectiveness of ambulatory oxygen versus ambulatory air in people with fibrotic interstitial lung disease and exertional desaturation. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: A randomised, controlled trial with blinding of participants, clinicians and researchers will be conducted at trial sites in Australia and Sweden. Eligible participants will be randomised 1:1 into two groups. Intervention participants will receive ambulatory oxygen therapy using a portable oxygen concentrator (POC) during daily activities and control participants will use an identical POC modified to deliver air. Outcomes will be assessed at baseline, 3 months and 6 months. The primary outcome is change in physical activity measured by number of steps per day using a physical activity monitor (StepWatch). Secondary outcomes are functional capacity (6-minute walk distance), health-related quality of life (St George Respiratory Questionnaire, EQ-5D-5L and King's Brief Interstitial Lung Disease Questionnaire), breathlessness (Dyspnoea-12), fatigue (Fatigue Severity Scale), anxiety and depression (Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale), physical activity level (GENEActive), oxygen saturation in daily life, POC usage, and plasma markers of skeletal muscle metabolism, systematic inflammation and oxidative stress. A cost-effectiveness evaluation will also be undertaken. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethical approval has been granted in Australia by Alfred Hospital Human Research Ethics Committee (HREC/18/Alfred/42) with governance approval at all Australian sites, and in Sweden (Lund Dnr: 2

The island state of Tasmania has marked seasonal variations of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations related to wood heating during winter, planned forest fires during autumn and spring, and bushfires during summer. Biomass smoke causes considerable health harms and associated costs. We estimated the historical health burden from PM2.5 attributable to wood heater smoke (WHS) and landscape fire smoke (LFS) in Tasmania between 2010 and 2019. We calculated the daily population level exposure to WHS- and LFS-related PM2.5 and estimated the number of cases and health costs due to premature mortality, cardiorespiratory hospital admissions, and asthma emergency department (ED) visits. We estimated 69 deaths, 86 hospital admissions, and 15 asthma ED visits, each year, with over 74% of impacts attributed to WHS. Average yearly costs associated with WHS were of AUD$ 293 million and AUD$ 16 million for LFS. The latter increased up to more than AUD$ 34 million during extreme bushfire seasons. This is the first study to quantify the health impacts attributable to biomass smoke for Tasmania. We estimated substantial impacts, which could be reduced through replacing heating technologies, improving fire management, and possibly implementing integrated strategies. This would most likely produce important and cost-effective health benefits.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate whether an alternative model of care in aged care facilities, including in-house general practitioners, influenced health outcomes for residents. DESIGN: Stepped wedge, cluster randomised controlled trial over 90 weeks (31 December 2012 - 21 September 2014), with a 54-week pre-trial retrospective data period (start: 19 December 2011) and a 54-week post-trial prospective data collection period (to 4 October 2015). PARTICIPANTS, SETTING: Fifteen residential aged care facilities operated by Bupa Aged Care in metropolitan and regional cities in four Australian states. INTERVENTION: Residential aged care facilities sought to recruit general practitioners as staff members; care staff roles were redefined to allow registered nurses greater involvement in care plan development. MAIN (PRIMARY) OUTCOME MEASURES: Numbers of falls; numbers of unplanned transfers to hospital; polypharmacy. RESULTS: The new model of care could be implemented in all facilities, but four could not recruit in-house GPs at any time during the trial period. Intention-to-treat analyses found no statistically significant effect of the intervention on the primary outcome measures. Contamination-adjusted intention-to-treat analyses identified that the presence of an in-house GP was associated with reductions in the numbers of unplanned hospital transfers (incidence rate ratio [IRR], 0.53; 95% CI, 0.43-0.66) and admissions (IRR, 0.52; 95% CI, 0.41-0.64) and of out-of-hours GP call-outs (IRR, 0.54; 95% CI, 0.36-0.80), but also with an increase in the number of reported falls (IRR, 1.37; 95% CI, 1.20-1.58). CONCLUSIONS: Recruiting GPs to work directly in residential aged care facilities is difficult, but may reduce the burden of unplanned presentations to hospitals and increase the reporting of adverse events. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Australia New Zealand Clinical Trial Registry, ACTRN12613000218796 (25 February 2013).

OBJECTIVE: To develop a patient-level simulation model for predicting lifetime health outcomes of patients with type 1 diabetes and as a tool for economic evaluation of type 1 diabetes treatment based on data from a large, longitudinal cohort. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Data for model development were obtained from the Swedish National Diabetes Register. We derived parametric proportional hazards models predicting the absolute risk of diabetes complications and death based on a wide range of clinical variables and history of complications. We used linear regression models to predict risk factor progression. Internal validation was performed, estimates of life expectancies for different age-sex strata were computed, and the impact of key risk factors on life expectancy was assessed. RESULTS: The study population consisted of 27,841 patients with type 1 diabetes with a mean duration of follow-up of 7 years. Internal validation showed good agreement between the predicted and observed cumulative incidence of death and 10 complications. Simulated life expectancy was ∼13 years lower than that of the sex- and age-matched general population, and patients with type 1 diabetes could expect to live with one or more complications for ∼40% of their remaining life. Sensitivity analysis showed the importance of preventing renal dysfunction, hypoglycemia, and hyperglycemia as well as lowering HbA1c in reducing the risk of complications and death. CONCLUSIONS: Our model was able to simulate risk factor progression and event histories that closely match the observed outcomes and to project events occurring over patients' lifetimes. The model can serve as a tool to estimate the impact of changing clinical risk factors on health outcomes to inform economic evaluations of interventions in type 1 diabetes.

ISSUE ADDRESSED: Public transport (PT) users typically accumulate more physical activity (PA) than motor vehicle users. This mixed methods study aimed to determine acceptability and perceived effectiveness of strategies to increase bus use for PA gain in a regional Australian setting. METHODS: In a 2017 online survey, Tasmanian adults (n = 1091) rated the likelihood of increasing their bus use according to ten hypothetical strategies (fare-, incentives-, information- or infrastructure-based). Three focus groups and five interviews (n = 31) included infrequent bus users from the survey to determine reasons for strategy preferences and potential impact on PA. RESULTS: The top three strategies in the survey, with supporting rationale from qualitative data, were: provision of real-time bus information ("…because I can better plan…"); bus-only lanes ("…it just speeds the whole thing up…") and employee incentives/rewards for example bus fare credits ("…it really comes down to money…"). Full-time students favoured cost-saving strategies most and residents in outer suburbs favoured infrastructure-based strategies most. Qualitative data indicated that potential for enhanced certainty, efficiency or cost-savings drove strategy preferences and some strategies may lead to PA gain (eg through the location of Park and Ride facilities). CONCLUSIONS: Real-time information, bus-only lanes and employee incentives/rewards appear most promising for increasing bus use in this population, but tailoring strategies may be required. Discrete PT enhancement strategies may result in PA gain. SO WHAT?: Increasing PA through transport behaviour has been underexplored. The potential for PA gain through greater PT use and discrete PT use enhancement strategies is an important public health consideration.