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Collisionless shock waves, ubiquitous in the universe, are crucial for particle acceleration in various astrophysical systems. Currently, the heliosphere is the only natural environment available for their in situ study. In this work, we showcase the collective acceleration of electrons and ions by one of the fastest in situ shocks ever recorded, observed by the pioneering Parker Solar Probe at only 34.5 million kilometers from the Sun. Our analysis of this unprecedented, near-parallel shock shows electron acceleration up to 6 MeV amidst intense multi-scale electromagnetic wave emissions. We also present evidence of a variable shock structure capable of injecting and accelerating ions from the solar wind to high energies through a self-consistent process. The exceptional capability of the probe's instruments to measure electromagnetic fields in a shock traveling at 1% the speed of light has enabled us, for the first time, to confirm that the structure of a strong heliospheric shock aligns with theoretical models of strong shocks observed in astrophysical environments. This alignment offers viable avenues for understanding astrophysical shock processes and the acceleration of charged particles., Comment: Main text: 9 pages, 4 figures, 1 table; Supplementary text: 9 pages, 6 figures

Multi-spacecraft observations of solar energetic particle (SEP) events not only enable a deeper understanding and development of particle acceleration and transport theories, but also provide important constraints for model validation efforts. However, because of computational limitations, a given physics-based SEP model is usually best-suited to capture a particular phase of an SEP event, rather than its whole development from onset through decay. For example, magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) models of the heliosphere often incorporate solar transients only at the outer boundary of their so-called coronal domain -- usually set at a heliocentric distance of 20-30 $R_{\odot}$. This means that particle acceleration at CME-driven shocks is also computed from this boundary onwards, leading to simulated SEP event onsets that can be many hours later than observed, since shock waves can form much lower in the solar corona. In this work, we aim to improve the modelled onset of SEP events by inserting a "fixed source" of particle injection at the outer boundary of the coronal domain of the coupled WSA-Enlil 3D MHD model of the heliosphere. The SEP model that we employ for this effort is SEPMOD, a physics-based test-particle code based on a field line tracer and adiabatic invariant conservation. We apply our initial tests and results of SEPMOD's fixed-source option to the 2021 October 9 SEP event, which was detected at five well-separated locations in the inner heliosphere -- Parker Solar Probe, STEREO-A, Solar Orbiter, BepiColombo, and near-Earth spacecraft., Comment: 31 pages, 8 figures, 4 tables, accepted for publication in Journal of Space Weather and Space Climate

On 2022 February 15, an impressive filament eruption was observed off the solar eastern limb from three remote-sensing viewpoints, namely Earth, STEREO-A, and Solar Orbiter. In addition to representing the most-distant observed filament at extreme ultraviolet wavelengths -- captured by Solar Orbiter's field of view extending to above 6 $R_{\odot}$ -- this event was also associated with the release of a fast ($\sim$2200 km$\cdot$s$^{-1}$) coronal mass ejection (CME) that was directed towards BepiColombo and Parker Solar Probe. These two probes were separated by 2$^{\circ}$ in latitude, 4$^{\circ}$ in longitude, and 0.03 au in radial distance around the time of the CME-driven shock arrival in situ. The relative proximity of the two probes to each other and to the Sun ($\sim$0.35 au) allows us to study the mesoscale structure of CMEs at Mercury's orbit for the first time. We analyse similarities and differences in the main CME-related structures measured at the two locations, namely the interplanetary shock, the sheath region, and the magnetic ejecta. We find that, despite the separation between the two spacecraft being well within the typical uncertainties associated with determination of CME geometric parameters from remote-sensing observations, the two sets of in-situ measurements display some profound differences that make understanding of the overall 3D CME structure particularly challenging. Finally, we discuss our findings within the context of space weather at Mercury's distances and in terms of the need to investigate solar transients via spacecraft constellations with small separations, which has been gaining significant attention during recent years., Comment: 31 pages, 13 figures, 5 tables, accepted for publication in The Astrophysical Journal

We present observations and modeling results of the propagation and impact at Earth of a high-latitude, extended filament channel eruption that commenced on 2015 July 9. The coronal mass ejection (CME) that resulted from the filament eruption was associated with a moderate disturbance at Earth. This event could be classified as a so-called "problem storm" because it lacked the usual solar signatures that are characteristic of large, energetic, Earth-directed CMEs that often result in significant geoeffective impacts. We use solar observations to constrain the initial parameters and therefore to model the propagation of the 2015 July 9 eruption from the solar corona up to Earth using 3D magnetohydrodynamic heliospheric simulations with three different configurations of the modeled CME. We find the best match between observed and modeled arrival at Earth for the simulation run that features a toroidal flux rope structure of the CME ejecta, but caution that different approaches may be more or less useful depending on the CME-observer geometry when evaluating the space weather impact of eruptions that are extreme in terms of their large size and high degree of asymmetry. We discuss our results in the context of both advancing our understanding of the physics of CME evolution and future improvements to space weather forecasting., Comment: 20 pages, 8 figures, 2 tables, accepted for publication in The Astrophysical Journal

The trajectories of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are often seen to substantially deviate from a purely radial propagation direction. Such deviations occur predominantly in the corona and have been attributed to "channeling" or deflection of the eruptive flux by asymmetric ambient magnetic fields. Here, we investigate an additional mechanism that does not require any asymmetry of the pre-eruptive ambient field. Using magnetohydrodynamic numerical simulations, we show that the trajectory of CMEs through the solar corona can significantly deviate from a radial direction when propagation takes place in a unipolar radial field. We demonstrate that the deviation is most prominent below ~15 solar radii and can be attributed to an "effective IxB force" that arises from the intrusion of a magnetic flux rope with a net axial electric current into a unipolar background field. These results are important for predictions of CME trajectories in the context of space weather forecasts, as well as for reaching a deeper understanding of the fundamental physics underlying CME interactions with the ambient fields in the extended solar corona., Comment: 15 pages, 12 figures

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are large eruptions from the Sun that propagate through the heliosphere after launch. Observational studies of these transient phenomena are usually based on 2D images of the Sun, corona, and heliosphere (remote-sensing data), as well as magnetic field, plasma, and particle samples along a 1D spacecraft trajectory (in-situ data). Given the large scales involved and the 3D nature of CMEs, such measurements are generally insufficient to build a comprehensive picture, especially in terms of local variations and overall geometry of the whole structure. This White Paper aims to address this issue by identifying the data sets and observational priorities that are needed to effectively advance our current understanding of the structure and evolution of CMEs, in both the remote-sensing and in-situ regimes. It also provides an outlook of possible missions and instruments that may yield significant improvements into the subject., Comment: White Paper submitted to the Heliophysics 2024-2033 Decadal Survey, 9 pages, 4 figures

Diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI) programs can only be implemented successfully if proper work-life balance is possible in Heliophysics (and in STEM field in general). One of the core issues stems from the culture of "work-above-life" associated with mission concepts, development, and implementation but also the expectations that seem to originate from numerous announcements from NASA (and other agencies). The benefits of work-life balance are well documented; however, the entire system surrounding research in Heliophysics hinders or discourages proper work-life balance. For example, there does not seem to be attention paid by NASA Headquarters (HQ) on the timing of their announcements regarding how it will be perceived by researchers, and how the timing may promote a culture where work trumps personal life. The same is true for remarks by NASA HQ program officers during panels or informal discussions, where seemingly innocuous comments may give a perception that work is expected after "normal" work hours. In addition, we are calling for work-life balance plans and implementation to be one of the criteria used for down-selection and confirmation of missions (Key Decision Points: KDP-B, KDP-C)., Comment: White paper submitted to the Decadal Survey for Solar and Space Physics (Heliophysics) 2024-2033; 6 pages

We present simulation results of a gradual solar energetic particle (SEP) event detected on 2021 October 9 by multiple spacecraft, including BepiColombo (Bepi) and near-Earth spacecraft such as the Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE). A peculiarity of this event is that the presence of a high speed stream (HSS) affected the low-energy ion component ($\lesssim 5$ MeV) of the gradual SEP event at both Bepi and ACE, despite the HSS having only a modest solar wind speed increase. Using the EUHFORIA (European Heliospheric FORecasting Information Asset) magnetohydrodynamic model, we replicate the solar wind during the event and the coronal mass ejection (CME) that generated it. We then combine these results with the energetic particle transport model PARADISE (PArticle Radiation Asset Directed at Interplanetary Space Exploration). We find that the structure of the CME-driven shock was affected by the non-uniform solar wind, especially near the HSS, resulting in a shock wavefront with strong variations in its properties such as its compression ratio and obliquity. By scaling the emission of energetic particles from the shock to the solar wind compression at the shock, an excellent match between the PARADISE simulation and in-situ measurements of $\lesssim 5$ MeV ions is obtained. Our modelling shows that the intricate intensity variations observed at both ACE and Bepi were influenced by the non-uniform emission of energetic particles from the deformed shock wave and demonstrates the influence of even modest background solar wind structures on the development of SEP events., Comment: 13 pages, 7 figures, accepted for publication in The Astrophysical Journal

Context: Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are eruptions of plasma from the Sun that travel through interplanetary space and may encounter Earth. CMEs often enclose a magnetic flux rope (MFR), the orientation of which largely determines the CME's geoeffectiveness. Current operational CME models do not model MFRs, but a number of research ones do, including the Open Solar Physics Rapid Ensemble Information (OSPREI) model. Aims: We report the sensitivity of OSPREI to a range of user-selected photospheric and coronal conditions. Methods: We model four separate CMEs observed in situ by Parker Solar Probe (PSP). We vary the input photospheric conditions using four input magnetograms (HMI Synchronic, HMI Synoptic, GONG Synoptic Zero-Point Corrected, and GONG ADAPT). To vary the coronal field reconstruction, we employ the Potential-Field Source-Surface (PFSS) model and we vary its source-surface height in the range 1.5--3.0 R$_{\odot}$ with 0.1 R$_{\odot}$ increments. Results: We find that both the input magnetogram and PFSS source surface often affect the evolution of the CME as it propagates through the Sun's corona into interplanetary space, and therefore the accuracy of the MFR prediction compared to in-situ data at PSP. There is no obvious best combination of input magnetogram and PFSS source surface height. Conclusions: The OSPREI model is moderately sensitive to the input photospheric and coronal conditions. Based on where the source region of the CME is located on the Sun, there may be best practices when selecting an input magnetogram to use., Comment: 19 pages, 10 figures, 1 table, accepted for publication in Astronomy & Astrophysics

(Shortened version) Current efforts in space weather forecasting of CMEs have been focused on predicting their arrival time and magnetic structure. To make predictions, methods have been developed to derive the true CME speed, size and position, among others. Difficulties in determining input parameters for CME forecasting arise from the lack of direct measurements of the coronal magnetic fields and uncertainties in estimating the CME 3D geometric and kinematic parameters. White-light coronagraph images are usually employed by a variety of CME reconstruction techniques. We explore how subjectivity affects the 3D CME parameters that are obtained from the GCS reconstruction technique. We have designed two different synthetic scenarios where the ``true'' geometric parameters are known in order to quantify such uncertainties for the first time. We explore this as follows: 1) Using the ray-tracing option from the GCS model software, and 2) Using 3D MHD simulation data from the MAS code. Our experiment includes different viewing configurations using single and multiple viewpoints. CME reconstructions using a single viewpoint had the largest errors and error ranges for both synthetic GCS and simulated MHD white-light data. Increasing the number of viewpoints to two, the errors decreased by about 4$^\circ$ in latitude, 22$^\circ$ in longitude, 14$^\circ$ in tilt, and 10$^\circ$ in half-angle, pointing towards a need for at least two viewpoints. We found the following CME parameter error bars as a starting point for quantifying the minimum error in CME parameters from white-light reconstructions: $\Delta\theta$ (latitude)=${6^\circ}$, $\Delta\phi$ (longitude)=${11^\circ}$, $\Delta\gamma$ (tilt)=${25^\circ}$, $\Delta\alpha$ (half-angle)=${10^\circ}$, $\Delta h$ (height)=$0.6 R_{\odot}$, and $\Delta\kappa$ (ratio)=$0.1$.

The activity of the Sun alternates between a solar minimum and a solar maximum, the former corresponding to a period of "quieter" status of the heliosphere. During solar minimum, it is in principle more straightforward to follow eruptive events and solar wind structures from their birth at the Sun throughout their interplanetary journey. In this paper, we report analysis of the origin, evolution, and heliospheric impact of a series of solar transient events that took place during the second half of August 2018, i.e. in the midst of the late declining phase of Solar Cycle 24. In particular, we focus on two successive coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and a following high-speed stream (HSS) on their way towards Earth and Mars. We find that the first CME impacted both planets, whilst the second caused a strong magnetic storm at Earth and went on to miss Mars, which nevertheless experienced space weather effects from the stream interacting region (SIR) preceding the HSS. Analysis of remote-sensing and in-situ data supported by heliospheric modelling suggests that CME--HSS interaction resulted in the second CME rotating and deflecting in interplanetary space, highlighting that accurately reproducing the ambient solar wind is crucial even during "simpler" solar minimum periods. Lastly, we discuss the upstream solar wind conditions and transient structures responsible for driving space weather effects at Earth and Mars., Comment: 27 pages, 7 figures, 1 table, accepted for publication in Space Weather

Streamer-blowout coronal mass ejections (SBO-CMEs) are the dominant CME population during solar minimum. Although they are typically slow and lack clear low-coronal signatures, they can cause geomagnetic storms. With the aid of extrapolated coronal fields and remote observations of the off-limb low corona, we study the initiation of an SBO-CME preceded by consecutive CME eruptions consistent with a multi-stage sympathetic breakout scenario. From inner-heliospheric Parker Solar Probe (PSP) observations, it is evident that the SBO-CME is interacting with the heliospheric magnetic field and plasma sheet structures draped about the CME flux rope. We estimate that $18 \, \pm \, 11\%$ of the CME's azimuthal magnetic flux has been eroded through magnetic reconnection and that this erosion began after a heliospheric distance of ${\sim}0.35$ AU from the Sun was reached. This observational study has important implications for understanding the initiation of SBO-CMEs and their interaction with the heliospheric surroundings., Comment: 21 pages, 6 figures, 3 videos

We present a comprehensive analysis of the three-dimensional magnetic flux rope structure generated during the Lynch et al. (2019) magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulation of a global-scale, 360 degree-wide streamer blowout coronal mass ejection (CME) eruption. We create both fixed and moving synthetic spacecraft to generate time series of the MHD variables through different regions of the flux rope CME. Our moving spacecraft trajectories are derived from the spatial coordinates of Parker Solar Probe's past encounters 7 and 9 and future encounter 23. Each synthetic time series through the simulation flux rope ejecta is fit with three different in-situ flux rope models commonly used to characterize the large-scale, coherent magnetic field rotations observed in a significant fraction of interplanetary CMEs (ICMEs). We present each of the in-situ flux rope model fits to the simulation data and discuss the similarities and differences between the model fits and the MHD simulation's flux rope spatial orientations, field strengths and rotations, expansion profiles, and magnetic flux content. We compare in-situ model properties to those calculated with the MHD data for both classic bipolar and unipolar ICME flux rope configurations as well as more problematic profiles such as those with a significant radial component to the flux rope axis orientation or profiles obtained with large impact parameters. We find general agreement among the in-situ flux rope fitting results for the classic profiles and much more variation among results for the problematic profiles. We also examine the force-free assumption for a subset of the flux rope models and quantify properties of the Lorentz force within MHD ejecta intervals. We conclude that the in-situ flux rope models are generally a decent approximation to the field structure, but all the caveats associated with in-situ flux rope models will still apply..., Comment: 25 pages, 13 figures, 3 tables. Accepted for publication in Adv. Space Res

Predictions of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and solar energetic particles (SEPs) are a central issue in space weather forecasting. In recent years, interest in space weather predictions has expanded to include impacts at other planets beyond Earth as well as spacecraft scattered throughout the heliosphere. In this sense, the scope of space weather science now encompasses the whole heliospheric system, and multi-point measurements of solar transients can provide useful insights and validations for prediction models. In this work, we aim to analyse the whole inner heliospheric context between two eruptive flares that took place in late 2020, i.e. the M4.4 flare of November 29 and the C7.4 flare of December 7. This period is especially interesting because the STEREO-A spacecraft was located ~60{\deg} east of the Sun-Earth line, giving us the opportunity to test the capabilities of "predictions at 360{\deg}" using remote-sensing observations from the Lagrange L1 and L5 points as input. We simulate the CMEs that were ejected during our period of interest and the SEPs accelerated by their shocks using the WSA-Enlil-SEPMOD modelling chain and four sets of input parameters, forming a "mini-ensemble". We validate our results using in-situ observations at six locations, including Earth and Mars. We find that, despite some limitations arising from the models' architecture and assumptions, CMEs and shock-accelerated SEPs can be reasonably studied and forecast in real time at least out to several tens of degrees away from the eruption site using the prediction tools employed here., Comment: 50 pages, 16 figures, 3 tables, accepted for publication in Space Weather (v2 contains updated CCMC links after their website update)

We investigate the effects of the evolutionary processes in the internal magnetic structure of two interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) detected in situ between 2020 November 29 and December 1 by Parker Solar Probe (PSP). The sources of the ICMEs were observed remotely at the Sun in EUV and subsequently tracked to their coronal counterparts in white light. This period is of particular interest to the community since it has been identified as the first widespread solar energetic particle event of Solar Cycle 25. The distribution of various solar and heliospheric-dedicated spacecraft throughout the inner heliosphere during PSP observations of these large-scale magnetic structures enables a comprehensive analysis of the internal evolution and topology of such structures. By assembling different models and techniques, we identify the signatures of interaction between the two consecutive ICMEs and the implications for their internal structure. We use multispacecraft observations in combination with a remote-sensing forward modeling technique, numerical propagation models, and in-situ reconstruction techniques. The outcome, from the full reconciliations, demonstrates that the two CMEs are interacting in the vicinity of PSP. Thus, we identify the in-situ observations based on the physical processes that are associated with the interaction and collision of both CMEs. We also expand the flux rope modeling and in-situ reconstruction technique to incorporate the aging and expansion effects in a distorted internal magnetic structure and explore the implications of both effects in the magnetic configuration of the ICMEs.

Geomagnetic storms are an important aspect of space weather and can result in significant impacts on space- and ground-based assets. The majority of strong storms are associated with the passage of interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) in the near-Earth environment. In many cases, these ICMEs can be traced back unambiguously to a specific coronal mass ejection (CME) and solar activity on the frontside of the Sun. Hence, predicting the arrival of ICMEs at Earth from routine observations of CMEs and solar activity currently makes a major contribution to the forecasting of geomagnetic storms. However, it is clear that some ICMEs, which may also cause enhanced geomagnetic activity, cannot be traced back to an observed CME, or, if the CME is identified, its origin may be elusive or ambiguous in coronal images. Such CMEs have been termed "stealth CMEs." In this review, we focus on these "problem" geomagnetic storms in the sense that the solar/CME precursors are enigmatic and stealthy. We start by reviewing evidence for stealth CMEs discussed in past studies. We then identify several moderate to strong geomagnetic storms (minimum Dst < -50 nT) in solar cycle 24 for which the related solar sources and/or CMEs are unclear and apparently stealthy. We discuss the solar and in situ circumstances of these events and identify several scenarios that may account for their elusive solar signatures. These range from observational limitations (e.g., a coronagraph near Earth may not detect an incoming CME if it is diffuse and not wide enough) to the possibility that there is a class of mass ejections from the Sun that have only weak or hard-to-observe coronal signatures. In particular, some of these sources are only clearly revealed by considering the evolution of coronal structures over longer time intervals than is usually considered. We also review a variety of numerical modelling approaches..., Comment: 60 pages, 25 figures, 5 tables. Accepted for publication in Space Science Reviews

One of the grand challenges in heliophysics is the characterisation of coronal mass ejection (CME) magnetic structure and evolution from eruption at the Sun through heliospheric propagation. At present, the main difficulties are related to the lack of direct measurements of the coronal magnetic fields and the lack of 3D in-situ measurements of the CME body in interplanetary space. Nevertheless, the evolution of a CME magnetic structure can be followed using a combination of multi-point remote-sensing observations and multi-spacecraft in-situ measurements as well as modelling. Accordingly, we present in this work the analysis of two CMEs that erupted from the Sun on 28 April 2012. We follow their eruption and early evolution using remote-sensing data, finding indications of CME--CME interaction, and then analyse their interplanetary counterpart(s) using in-situ measurements at Venus, Earth, and Saturn. We observe a seemingly single flux rope at all locations, but find possible signatures of interaction at Earth, where high-cadence plasma data are available. Reconstructions of the in-situ flux ropes provide almost identical results at Venus and Earth but show greater discrepancies at Saturn, suggesting that the CME was highly distorted and/or that further interaction with nearby solar wind structures took place before 10 AU. This work highlights the difficulties in connecting structures from the Sun to the outer heliosphere and demonstrates the importance of multi-spacecraft studies to achieve a deeper understanding of the magnetic configuration of CMEs., Comment: 40 pages, 11 figures, accepted for publication in Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics

Stealth coronal mass ejection (CMEs) are eruptions from the Sun that are not associated with appreciable low-coronal signatures. Because they often cannot be linked to a well-defined source region on the Sun, analysis of their initial magnetic configuration and eruption dynamics is particularly problematic. In this manuscript, we address this issue by undertaking the first attempt at predicting the magnetic fields of a stealth CME that erupted in 2020 June from the Earth-facing Sun. We estimate its source region with the aid of off-limb observations from a secondary viewpoint and photospheric magnetic field extrapolations. We then employ the Open Solar Physics Rapid Ensemble Information (OSPREI) modelling suite to evaluate its early evolution and forward-model its magnetic fields up to Parker Solar Probe, which detected the CME in situ at a heliocentric distance of 0.5 AU. We compare our hindcast prediction with in-situ measurements and a set of flux rope reconstructions, obtaining encouraging agreement on arrival time, spacecraft crossing location, and magnetic field profiles. This work represents a first step towards reliable understanding and forecasting of the magnetic configuration of stealth CMEs and slow, streamer-blowout events., Comment: 9 pages, 4 figures, 1 table, accepted for publication in The Astrophysical Journal

Eruptions of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) from the Sun are usually associated with a number of signatures that can be identified in solar disc imagery. However, there are cases in which a CME that is well observed in coronagraph data is missing a clear low-coronal counterpart. These events have received attention during recent years, mainly as a result of the increased availability of multi-point observations, and are now known as 'stealth CMEs'. In this work, we analyse examples of stealth CMEs featuring various levels of ambiguity. All the selected case studies produced a large-scale CME detected by coronagraphs and were observed from at least one secondary viewpoint, enabling a priori knowledge of their approximate source region. To each event, we apply several image processing and geometric techniques with the aim to evaluate whether such methods can provide additional information compared to the study of "normal" intensity images. We are able to identify at least weak eruptive signatures for all events upon careful investigation of remote-sensing data, noting that differently processed images may be needed to properly interpret and analyse elusive observations. We also find that the effectiveness of geometric techniques strongly depends on the CME propagation direction with respect to the observers and the relative spacecraft separation. Being able to observe and therefore forecast stealth CMEs is of great importance in the context of space weather, since such events are occasionally the solar counterparts of so-called 'problem geomagnetic storms'., Comment: 26 pages, 8 figures, 1 table, accepted for publication in Frontiers in Astronomy and Space Sciences

We present observations and modeling of the magnetic field configuration, morphology, and dynamics of a large-scale, high-latitude filament eruption observed by the Solar Dynamics Observatory. We analyze the 2015 July 9-10 filament eruption and the evolution of the resulting coronal mass ejection (CME) through the solar corona. The slow streamer-blowout CME leaves behind an elongated post-eruption arcade above the extended polarity inversion line that is only poorly visible in extreme ultraviolet (EUV) disk observations and does not resemble a typical bright flare-loop system. Magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulation results from our data-inspired modeling of this eruption compare favorably with the EUV and white-light coronagraph observations. We estimate the reconnection flux from the simulation's flare-arcade growth and examine the magnetic-field orientation and evolution of the erupting prominence, highlighting the transition from an erupting sheared-arcade filament channel into a streamer-blowout flux-rope CME. Our results represent the first numerical modeling of a global-scale filament eruption where multiple ambiguous and complex observational signatures in EUV and white light can be fully understood and explained with the MHD simulation. In this context, our findings also suggest that the so-called "stealth CME" classification, as a driver of unexpected or "problem" geomagnetic storms, belongs more to a continuum of observable/non-observable signatures than to separate or distinct eruption processes., Comment: 22 pages, 14 figures, 2 tables, accepted for publication in ApJ

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and solar energetic particles (SEPs) are two phenomena that can cause severe space weather effects throughout the heliosphere. The evolution of CMEs, especially in terms of their magnetic structure, and the configuration of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) that influences the transport of SEPs are currently areas of active research. These two aspects are not necessarily independent of each other, especially during solar maximum when multiple eruptive events can occur close in time. Accordingly, we present the analysis of a CME that erupted on 2012 May 11 (SOL2012-05-11) and an SEP event following an eruption that took place on 2012 May 17 (SOL2012-05-17). After observing the May 11 CME using remote-sensing data from three viewpoints, we evaluate its propagation through interplanetary space using several models. Then, we analyse in-situ measurements from five predicted impact locations (Venus, Earth, the Spitzer Space Telescope, the Mars Science Laboratory en route to Mars, and Mars) in order to search for CME signatures. We find that all in-situ locations detect signatures of an SEP event, which we trace back to the May 17 eruption. These findings suggest that the May 11 CME provided a direct magnetic connectivity for the efficient transport of SEPs. We discuss the space weather implications of CME evolution, regarding in particular its magnetic structure, and CME-driven IMF preconditioning that facilitates SEP transport. Finally, this work remarks the importance of using data from multiple spacecraft, even those that do not include space weather research as their primary objective., Comment: 50 pages, 14 figures, 2 tables, accepted for publication in Space Weather

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are the primary sources of intense disturbances at Earth, where their geo-effectiveness is largely determined by their dynamic pressure and internal magnetic field, which can be significantly altered during interactions with other CMEs in interplanetary space. We analyse three successive CMEs that erupted from the Sun during September 4-6, 2017, investigating the role of CME-CME interactions as source of the associated intense geomagnetic storm (Dst_min=-142 nT on September 7). To quantify the impact of interactions on the (geo-)effectiveness of individual CMEs, we perform global heliospheric simulations with the EUHFORIA model, using observation-based initial parameters with the additional purpose of validating the predictive capabilities of the model for complex CME events. The simulations show that around 0.45 AU, the shock driven by the September 6 CME started compressing a preceding magnetic ejecta formed by the merging of two CMEs launched on September 4, significantly amplifying its Bz until a maximum factor of 2.8 around 0.9 AU. The following gradual conversion of magnetic energy into kinetic and thermal components reduced the Bz amplification until its almost complete disappearance around 1.8 AU. We conclude that a key factor at the origin of the intense storm triggered by the September 4-6, 2017 CMEs was their arrival at Earth during the phase of maximum Bz amplification. Our analysis highlights how the amplification of the magnetic field of individual CMEs in space-time due to interaction processes can be characterised by a growth, a maximum, and a decay phase, suggesting that the time interval between the CME eruptions and their relative speeds are critical factors in determining the resulting impact of complex CMEs at various heliocentric distances (helio-effectiveness).

We analyse in this work the propagation and geoeffectiveness of four successive coronal mass ejections (CMEs) that erupted from the Sun during 21--23 May 2013 and that were detected in interplanetary space by the Wind and/or STEREO-A spacecraft. All these CMEs featured critical aspects for understanding so-called "problem space weather storms" at Earth. In the first three events a limb CMEs resulted in moderately geoeffective in-situ structures at their target location in terms of the disturbance storm time (Dst) index (either measured or estimated). The fourth CME, which also caused a moderate geomagnetic response, erupted from close to the disc centre as seen from Earth, but it was not visible in coronagraph images from the spacecraft along the Sun--Earth line and appeared narrow and faint from off-angle viewpoints. Making the correct connection between CMEs at the Sun and their in-situ counterparts is often difficult for problem storms. We investigate these four CMEs using multiwavelength and multipoint remote-sensing observations (extreme ultraviolet, white light, and radio), aided by 3D heliospheric modelling, in order to follow their propagation in the corona and in interplanetary space and to assess their impact at 1 AU. Finally, we emphasise the difficulties in forecasting moderate space weather effects provoked by problematic and ambiguous events and the importance of multispacecraft data for observing and modelling problem storms., Comment: 20 pages, 10 figures, 3 tables, accepted for publication in The Astrophysical Journal

Predicting the magnetic field within an Earth-directed coronal mass ejection (CME) well before its arrival at Earth is one of the most important issues in space weather research. In this article, we compare the intrinsic flux rope type, i.e. the CME orientation and handedness during eruption, with the in situ flux rope type for 20 CME events that have been uniquely linked from Sun to Earth through heliospheric imaging. Our study shows that the intrinsic flux rope type can be estimated for CMEs originating from different source regions using a combination of indirect proxies. We find that only 20% of the events studied match strictly between the intrinsic and in situ flux rope types. The percentage rises to 55% when intermediate cases (where the orientation at the Sun and/or in situ is close to 45{\deg}) are considered as a match. We also determine the change in the flux rope tilt angle between the Sun and Earth. For the majority of the cases, the rotation is several tens of degrees, whilst 35% of the events change by more than 90{\deg}. While occasionally the intrinsic flux rope type is a good proxy for the magnetic structure impacting Earth, our study highlights the importance of capturing the CME evolution for space weather forecasting purposes. Moreover, we emphasize that determination of the intrinsic flux rope type is a crucial input for CME forecasting models., Comment: 27 pages, 6 figures, accepted for publication in Space Weather

Forecasting the geomagnetic effects of solar storms, known as coronal mass ejections (CMEs), is currently severely limited by our inability to predict the magnetic field configuration in the CME magnetic core and by observational effects of a single spacecraft trajectory through its 3D structure. CME magnetic flux ropes can lead to continuous forcing of the energy input to the Earth's magnetosphere by strong and steady southward-pointing magnetic fields. Here, we demonstrate in a proof-of-concept way a new approach to predict the southward field Bz in a CME flux rope. It combines a novel semi-empirical model of CME flux rope magnetic fields (3-Dimensional Coronal ROpe Ejection or 3DCORE) with solar observations and in situ magnetic field data from along the Sun-Earth line. These are provided here by the MESSENGER spacecraft for a CME event on 2013 July 9-13. 3DCORE is the first such model that contains the interplanetary propagation and evolution of a 3D flux rope magnetic field, the observation by a synthetic spacecraft and the prediction of an index of geomagnetic activity. A counterclockwise rotation of the left-handed erupting CME flux rope in the corona of 30 degree and a deflection angle of 20 degree is evident from comparison of solar and coronal observations. The calculated Dst matches reasonably the observed Dst minimum and its time evolution, but the results are highly sensitive to the CME axis orientation. We discuss assumptions and limitations of the method prototype and its potential for real time space weather forecasting and heliospheric data interpretation., Comment: accepted at AGU Space Weather on 2018 February 13. 33 pages including supplementary material, 7 figures, 1 table. 3DCORE source code at https://doi.org/10.6084/m9.figshare.5450341

Planar magnetic structures (PMSs) are periods in the solar wind during which interplanetary magnetic field vectors are nearly parallel to a single plane. One of the specific regions where PMSs have been reported are coronal mass ejection (CME)-driven sheaths. We use here an automated method to identify PMSs in 95 CME sheath regions observed in-situ by the Wind and ACE spacecraft between 1997 and 2015. The occurrence and location of the PMSs are related to various shock, sheath and CME properties. We find that PMSs are ubiquitous in CME sheaths; 85% of the studied sheath regions had PMSs with the mean duration of 6.0 hours. In about one-third of the cases the magnetic field vectors followed a single PMS plane that covered a significant part (at least 67%) of the sheath region. Our analysis gives strong support for two suggested PMS formation mechanisms: the amplification and alignment of solar wind discontinuities near the CME-driven shock and the draping of the magnetic field lines around the CME ejecta. For example, we found that the shock and PMS plane normals generally coincided for the events where the PMSs occurred near the shock (68% of the PMS plane normals near the shock were separated by less than 20{\deg} from the shock normal), while deviations were clearly larger when PMSs occurred close to the ejecta leading edge. In addition, PMSs near the shock were generally associated with lower upstream plasma beta than the cases where PMSs occurred near the leading edge of the CME. We also demonstrate that the planar parts of the sheath contain a higher amount of strongly southward magnetic field than the non-planar parts, suggesting that planar sheaths are more likely to drive magnetospheric activity., Comment: 10 pages, 7 figures, accepted for publication in Annales Geophysicae

A key aim in space weather research is to be able to use remote-sensing observations of the solar atmosphere to extend the lead time of predicting the geoeffectiveness of a coronal mass ejection (CME). In order to achieve this, the magnetic structure of the CME as it leaves the Sun must be known. In this article we address this issue by developing a method to determine the intrinsic flux rope type of a CME solely from solar disk observations. We use several well known proxies for the magnetic helicity sign, the axis orientation, and the axial magnetic field direction to predict the magnetic structure of the interplanetary flux rope. We present two case studies: the 2 June 2011 and the 14 June 2012 CMEs. Both of these events erupted from an active region and, despite having clear in situ counterparts, their eruption characteristics were relatively complex. The first event was associated with an active region filament that erupted in two stages, while for the other event the eruption originated from a relatively high coronal altitude and the source region did not feature the presence of a filament. Our magnetic helicity sign proxies include the analysis of magnetic tongues, soft X-ray and/or EUV sigmoids, coronal arcade skew, filament emission and absorption threads, and filament rotation. Since the inclination of the post-eruption arcades was not clear, we use the tilt of the polarity inversion line to determine the flux rope axis orientation, and coronal dimmings to determine the flux rope footpoints and, therefore, the direction of the axial magnetic field. The comparison of the estimated intrinsic flux rope structure to in situ observations at the Lagrangian point L1 indicated a good agreement with the predictions. Our results highlight the flux rope type determination techniques that are particularly useful for active region eruptions, where most geoeffective CMEs originate., Comment: 24 pages, 7 figures, accepted for publication in Solar Physics