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1. Evolution of social contacts patterns in France over the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic: results from the SocialCov survey

Author

Flora Soussand, Armiya Youssouf Abdou, Marie Sanchez, Bich-Tram Huynh, Coralie Giese, Cécile Tran-Kiem, Guillaume Béraud, Didier Guillemot, Simon Cauchemez, Lulla Opatowski, and Paolo Bosetti

Subjects
Infectious disease dynamics, SARS-CoV-2, Social contacts, Age-structured contact matrices, Non-pharmaceutical interventions, Infectious and parasitic diseases, RC109-216
Abstract

Abstract Background Non-pharmaceutical measures such as lockdowns, curfews and place closures were implemented in France during 2020–2022 to reduce contacts in the population, to limit the spread of SARS-CoV-2 and reduce COVID-19 healthcare burden. Individuals also changed their behaviours as a response to the pandemic. Here, we present the results of the SocialCov survey that characterise the evolution of contacts in France between December 2020 and May 2022 to better understand the short and long term impact of these interventions on social mixing. Methods A questionnaire was advertised over six independent communication campaigns through the governmental application TousAntiCovid between December 2020 and June 2022. Participants were asked to detail social contacts in the previous day, including contact age, location, duration and type (physical/conversational). Results Over the six distinct campaigns, 44,396 individuals participated in the survey, declaring 300,735 contacts in total. The patterns of contacts strongly evolved over time, along with the progressive easing of national mitigation measures. The number of contacts in the French population increased from 5.3 contacts per day on average in December 2020 to 9.7 in May 2022. Mixing patterns were affected by age of participants, holidays and weekends. Healthcare workers declared 18.4 contacts on average during working days, roughly twice more than other workers. Reported risk perception changed throughout the two year period. Conclusions Results provide a detailed picture of contact evolution over the years 2020–2022 in France. In addition to a major evolution of contact density over time, this study highlights strong heterogeneities in contact patterns according to age, employment and weekend/vacation periods. The contact matrices provided here can be used to inform age-stratified transmission models of respiratory pathogens in the context of implementation of multiple non-pharmaceutical measures.

Published
2025
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2. Powder-bed 3D printing by selective activation of magnesium phosphate cement: Determining significant processing parameters and their effect on mechanical strength

Author

Farid Salari, Andrea Zocca, Paolo Bosetti, Petr Hlaváček, Antonino Italiano, Filippo Gobbin, Paolo Colombo, Hans-Carsten Kühne, and Vincenzo M. Sglavo

Subjects
Binder jetting, Concrete 3D-printing, Particle-bed binder jetting, Design of experiment, Process parameters, Clay industries. Ceramics. Glass, TP785-869
Abstract

The present work addresses powder bed binder jetting additive manufacturing by selective magnesium phosphate cement activation. Despite the potential of this technology to aid the digitalization of the construction industry, the effect of processing parameters on the mechanical performance of printed materials has not yet been studied to generate a guideline for the further development of the technology. Statistical methodologies were used to screen the effect of four printing process parameters (printing speed, layer thickness, raster angle, and build direction on flexural and compressive strength). As the exploited technology works with constant fluid pressure, the physical interpretation of the effect of each factor can be considered taking into account the interactions between the binder materials in the powder bed. Analysis of variance (ANOVA) indicated that printing speed and layer thickness significantly affect mechanical performances. Furthermore, the layout of samples for the printing process is preferable to be parallel the printhead movement. An anisotropic behavior was observed, and the samples subjected to compressive forces parallel to the layer plane possessed lower strength values. This effect can be interpreted as a result of a weak area of low density in between layers, leading to a pronounced delamination under compression.Even though the strength of the printed material is not suitable for a structural concrete, it can be marginally improved by design of experiment and optimized for non-structural applications, such as for porous artificial stone. Design of experiment coupled with ANOVA methods can be used in the future to support the development of novel material mixtures, thus expanding the fields of application of this novel additive manufacturing technology.

Published
2024
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3. Epidemiology and control of SARS-CoV-2 epidemics in partially vaccinated populations: a modeling study applied to France

Author

Paolo Bosetti, Cécile Tran Kiem, Alessio Andronico, Vittoria Colizza, Yazdan Yazdanpanah, Arnaud Fontanet, Daniel Benamouzig, and Simon Cauchemez

Subjects
SARS-CoV-2, Vaccination, Non-pharmaceutical interventions, Medicine
Abstract

Abstract Background Vaccination is expected to change the epidemiology and management of SARS-CoV-2 epidemics. Methods We used an age-stratified compartmental model calibrated to French data to anticipate these changes and determine implications for the control of an autumn epidemic. We assumed vaccines reduce the risk of hospitalization, infection, and transmission if infected by 95%, 60%, and 50%, respectively. Results In our baseline scenario characterized by basic reproduction number R0=5 and a vaccine coverage of 70–80–90% among 12–17, 18–59, and ≥ 60 years old, important stress on healthcare is expected in the absence of measures. Unvaccinated adults ≥60 years old represent 3% of the population but 43% of hospitalizations. Given limited vaccine coverage, children aged 0–17 years old represent a third of infections and are responsible for almost half of transmissions. Unvaccinated individuals have a disproportionate contribution to transmission so that measures targeting them may help maximize epidemic control while minimizing costs for society compared to non-targeted approaches. Of all the interventions considered including repeated testing and non-pharmaceutical measures, vaccination of the unvaccinated is the most effective. Conclusions With the Delta variant, vaccinated individuals are well protected against hospitalization but remain at risk of infection and should therefore apply protective behaviors (e.g., mask-wearing). Targeting non-vaccinated individuals may maximize epidemic control while minimizing costs for society. Vaccinating children protects them from the deleterious effects of non-pharmaceutical measures. Control strategies should account for the changing SARS-CoV-2 epidemiology.

Published
2022
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4. Modelling the end of a Zero-COVID strategy using nirmatrelvir/ritonavir, vaccination and NPIs in Wallis and FutunaResearch in context

Author

Antoine Brault, Cécile Tran-Kiem, Clément Couteaux, Valérie Olié, Juliette Paireau, Yazdan Yazdanpanah, Jade Ghosn, Guillaume Martin-Blondel, Paolo Bosetti, and Simon Cauchemez

Subjects
COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2, Treatment, Antiviral, Nirmatrelvir/ritonavir, Paxlovid, Public aspects of medicine, RA1-1270
Abstract

Summary: Background: Ending Zero-COVID is challenging, particularly when vaccine coverage is low. Considering Wallis and Futuna, a French Zero-COVID territory affected by reluctance to vaccination, low immunity and high levels of comorbidities, we investigate how targeted use of nirmatrelvir/ritonavir (brand name Paxlovid) can complement vaccination and non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), and mitigate the epidemic rebound expected when Zero-COVID ends. Methods: We developed a discrete age-stratified compartmental model describing SARS-CoV-2 spread and healthcare impact once Wallis and Futuna reopens. It accounts for comorbidity risk groups (CRG), vaccine coverage (2 doses, 3 doses), the effectiveness of vaccines (recent or old injection), treatments and NPIs. In our baseline scenario, cases aged 65+ in intermediate/high CRG and 40+ in high CRG are eligible for treatment. Findings: The epidemic is expected to start 13–20 days after reopening with a doubling time of 1.6-3.7 days. For medium transmission intensity (R0 = 5), 134 (115–156) hospital admissions are expected within 3 months, with no pharmaceutical measures. In our baseline scenario, admissions are reduced by 11%–21% if 50% of the target group receive treatment, with maximum impact when combined with NPIs and vaccination. The number of hospitalisations averted (HA) per patient treated (PT) is maximum when 65+ in high CRG are targeted (0.124 HA/PT), quickly followed by 65+ in intermediate/high CRG (0.097 HA/PT), and any 65+ (0.093 HA/PT). Expanding the target group increases both PT and HA, but marginal gains diminish. Interpretation: Modelling suggests that test and treat may contribute to the mitigation of epidemic rebounds at the end of Zero-COVID, particularly in populations with low immunity and high levels of comorbidities. Funding: RECOVER, VEO, AXA, Groupama, SpF, IBEID, INCEPTION, EMERGEN.

Published
2023
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5. SARS-CoV-2 transmission across age groups in France and implications for control

Author

Cécile Tran Kiem, Paolo Bosetti, Juliette Paireau, Pascal Crépey, Henrik Salje, Noémie Lefrancq, Arnaud Fontanet, Daniel Benamouzig, Pierre-Yves Boëlle, Jean-Claude Desenclos, Lulla Opatowski, and Simon Cauchemez

Subjects
Science
Abstract

In this study, Tran Kiem et al. examine the contribution of different age groups to COVID-19 transmission. Using data from the French epidemic in summer 2020, they report that while individuals aged 80 years and older are more at risk, pandemic control in the absence of vaccines required measures targeted at all age groups.

Published
2021
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6. Evaluating the impact of curfews and other measures on SARS-CoV-2 transmission in French Guiana

Author

Alessio Andronico, Cécile Tran Kiem, Juliette Paireau, Tiphanie Succo, Paolo Bosetti, Noémie Lefrancq, Mathieu Nacher, Félix Djossou, Alice Sanna, Claude Flamand, Henrik Salje, Cyril Rousseau, and Simon Cauchemez

Subjects
Science
Abstract

Identifying effective combinations of control measures in different populations is important for SARS-CoV-2 control. Here, the authors show that in French Guiana, which has a relatively young population, curfews and localised lockdowns appeared to contribute to reducing transmission.

Published
2021
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7. Cities of a feather flock together: a study on the synchronization of communication between Italian cities

Author

Lorenzo Candeago, Giulia Bertagnolli, Paolo Bosetti, Michele Vescovi, Francesco Sacco, and Bruno Lepri

Subjects
Communication synchronization, Mobile phone data, Computational social science, Computer applications to medicine. Medical informatics, R858-859.7
Abstract

Abstract Due to the rise of communication technologies and economic globalization, modern large cities are becoming more and more interconnected and this phenomenon leads to an increasing synchronization in activities and communication patterns. In our work, we explore the communication synchronization between 76 Italian cities of different sizes by using mobile phone data. Our results show that both the spatial distance and the size of the city influence the synchronization: larger cities are more similar to larger cities in communication rhythms than medium cities are to medium cities, and medium cities are more similar to medium cities than smaller cities are to smaller cities. Furthermore, for all the cities’ sizes we observe a drift in similarity due to spatial distance. Interestingly, the drift due to distance over similarity is less strong in large cities, that act as gateway nodes for the Italian economical system, hence having an emerging strongly connected and synchronized network, than for medium and small cities, that are more bounded to local industries. Finally, our results also show that highly synchronized cities are richer and more attractive for foreign-born population.

Published
2019
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8. A modelling study investigating short and medium-term challenges for COVID-19 vaccination: From prioritisation to the relaxation of measures

Author

Cécile Tran Kiem, Clément R. Massonnaud, Daniel Levy-Bruhl, Chiara Poletto, Vittoria Colizza, Paolo Bosetti, Arnaud Fontanet, Amélie Gabet, Valérie Olié, Laura Zanetti, Pierre-Yves Boëlle, Pascal Crépey, and Simon Cauchemez

Subjects
COVID-19, SARS-CoV-2, Vaccination, Prioritisation, Relaxation of measures, Comorbidities, Medicine (General), R5-920
Abstract

Background: The roll-out of COVID-19 vaccines is a multi-faceted challenge whose performance depends on pace of vaccination, vaccine characteristics and heterogeneities in individual risks. Methods: We developed a mathematical model accounting for the risk of severe disease by age and comorbidity, and transmission dynamics. We compared vaccine prioritisation strategies in the early roll-out stage and quantified the extent to which measures could be relaxed as a function of the vaccine coverage achieved in France. Findings: Prioritizing at-risk individuals reduces morbi-mortality the most if vaccines only reduce severity, but is of less importance if vaccines also substantially reduce infectivity or susceptibility. Age is the most important factor to consider for prioritization; additionally accounting for comorbidities increases the performance of the campaign in a context of scarce resources. Vaccinating 90% of ≥65 y.o. and 70% of 18–64 y.o. before autumn 2021 with a vaccine that reduces severity by 90% and susceptibility by 80%, we find that control measures reducing transmission rates by 15–27% should be maintained to remain below 1000 daily hospital admissions in France with a highly transmissible variant (basic reproduction number R0 = 4). Assuming 90% of ≥65 y.o. are vaccinated, full relaxation of control measures might be achieved with a vaccine coverage of 89–100% in 18–64 y.o or 60–69% of 0–64 y.o. Interpretation: Age and comorbidity-based vaccine prioritization strategies could reduce the burden of the disease. Very high vaccination coverage may be required to completely relax control measures. Vaccination of children, if possible, could lower coverage targets necessary to achieve this objective. Funding: We acknowledge financial support from Haute Autorite de Sante, the Investissement d'Avenir program, the Laboratoire d'Excellence Integrative Biology of Emerging Infectious Diseases program (grant ANR-10-LABX-62-IBEID), Sante Publique France, the INCEPTION project (PIA/ANR-16-CONV-0005), AXA, Groupama and the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under grants 101003589 (RECOVER) and 874735 (VEO).

Published
2021
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9. Binder Jetting 3D Printing of Magnesium Oxychloride Cement-Based Materials: Parametric Analysis of Manufacturing Factors

Author

Farid Salari, Paolo Bosetti, and Vincenzo M. Sglavo

Subjects
analysis of variance (ANOVA), binder jetting, design of experiment (DOE), magnesium oxychloride cement, particle-bed, Production capacity. Manufacturing capacity, T58.7-58.8
Abstract

Powder-bed binder jet 3D printing is a flexible method for producing magnesium oxychloride (MOC)-based articles. Despite the great potential of this additive manufacturing technology for producing free-form MOC cement-based components, the influence of processing factors on final material performance has not yet been investigated and no general models exist for the selection of proper parameters with the desired quality. In the present work, the effect of six key manufacturing factors on the modulus of rupture of MOC cement-based components was studied, using an analysis of variance. The parametric analysis revealed that the material’s strength was strongly influenced by three process inputs: particle size, the amount of binder, and layer thickness. The amount of binder was determined by the “rate of voxel” and the “powder-bed density” and required precise control during the printing process. The introduced quadratic regression model can assist operators in selecting a combination of binder jet process inputs to achieve predetermined final material performance.

Published
2022
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10. Application of LISA Gravitational Reference Sensor Hardware to Future Intersatellite Geodesy Missions

Author

William Joseph Weber, Daniele Bortoluzzi, Paolo Bosetti, Gabriel Consolini, Rita Dolesi, and Stefano Vitale

Subjects
gravitational reference sensor, geodesic motion, Science
Abstract

Like gravitational wave detection, inter-spacecraft geodesy is a measurement of gravitational tidal accelerations deforming a constellation of two or more orbiting reference test masses (TM). The LISA TM system requires TM in free fall with residual stray accelerations approaching the fm/s2/Hz1/2 level in the mHz band, as demonstrated in the LISA Pathfinder “Einstein’s geodesic explorer” mission. Current geodesy missions are limited by accelerometers with 100 pm/s2/Hz1/2 level, due to intrinsic design limitations, as well as the challenging low Earth orbit environment and operating conditions. A reduction in the TM acceleration noise could lead to an important improvement in the scientific return of future geodesy missions focusing on mass change, especially in a scenario with multiple pairs of geodesy satellites. We present here a preliminary assessment of how the LISA TM system, known as the “gravitational reference sensor” (GRS), could be adapted for use in future geodesy missions aiming at residual TM accelerations noise at the pm/s2/Hz1/2 level, addressing the major design issues and performance limitations. We find that such a performance is possible in a geodesy GRS that is simpler and smaller than that used for LISA, with a lighter, sub-kg TM and gaps reduced from 4 mm to less than 1 mm. Acceleration noise performance limitations will likely be closely tied to the required levels of applied actuation forces on the TM.

Published
2022
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11. Self-Weighted Multilateration for Indoor Positioning Systems

Author

Alberto Fornaser, Luca Maule, Alessandro Luchetti, Paolo Bosetti, and Mariolino De Cecco

Subjects
multilateration, ultra-wide-band, indoor localization, measurement, uncertainty, Chemical technology, TP1-1185
Abstract

The paper proposes an improved method for calculating the position of a movable tag whose distance to a (redundant) set of fixed beacons is measured by some suitable physical principle (typically ultra wide band or ultrasound propagation). The method is based on the multilateration technique, where the contribution of each individual beacon is weighed on the basis of a recurring, self-supported calibration of the measurement repeatability of each beacon at a given distance range. The work outlines the method and its implementation, and shows the improvement in measurement quality with respect to the results of a commercial Ultra-Wide-Band (UWB) system when tested on the same set of raw beacon-to-tag distances. Two versions of the algorithm are proposed: one-dimensional, or isotropic, and 3D. With respect to the standard approach, the isotropic solution managed to reduce the maximum localization error by around 25%, with a maximum error of 0.60 m, while the 3D version manages to improve even further the localization accuracy, with a maximum error of 0.45 m.

Published
2019
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22. Passive Sensing Jaw for Grasping and Orienting

Author

Alessandro Luchetti, Mariolino De Cecco, Matteo Perotto, Paolo Bosetti, Daniele Fontanelli, Luigi Palopoli, Fabiano Zenatti, Matteo Zanetti, Luca Maule, and Mattia Tavernini

Subjects
General Medicine
Abstract

The goal of this work is to present an innovative design for a smart robotic gripper, which is able to grasp different randomly deployed prismatic and cylindrical packages and orient them through a mechanically passive alignment system with sensing capability. It consists in a new concept of end-effector combined with an ad-hoc path planning for aligning residual worst cases. The system uses gravity and an angular sensor embedded into the gripper to detect the object orientation and, if necessary, formulate a control strategy to align it before the release phase. An initial screening experiment was executed to find the parameters that most influence the alignment angle and execution time. Two worst-case pack ages were tested in different working conditions. The results show that the percentage of success of the system is high even in the worst operating conditions.

Published
2022
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23. Exploring Potentialities of Direct Laser Deposition: Thin-Walled Structures

Author

Alessia Teresa Silvestri, Matteo Perini, Paolo Bosetti, and Antonino Squillace

Subjects
Mechanics of Materials, Mechanical Engineering, General Materials Science
Abstract

In the context of Industry 4.0, the interest towards the additive manufacturing processes is growing due to their numerous advantages, such as the possibility to prototype, the reduction of waste material, the inferior time to market, ad so on. In particular, a promising technology is the Direct Laser Deposition, which uses a focused laser beam to melt powders as there are deposited. In opposition to the well-established powder-bed fusion technologies, there are still some issues related to this process. This work aims to solve one of them, exploring the potentialities of DLD in printing thin-wall structures. For this purpose, the influence of the adopted deposition strategy and of the layer thickness on the geometrical accuracy and mechanical properties has been investigated. The results have pointed out that the first variable strongly influences the workpiece. It is possible to deposit thin-wall structures with a ZigZag strategy and consider a layer thickness equal to 90% of the height of the single track, printed with the same process parameters.

Published
2022
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25. Binder Jet 3D Printing of Magnesium Oxychloride Cement-Based Concrete: A Framework to Design the Rate of Voxel

Author

Farid Salari, Paolo Bosetti, and Vincenzo M. Sglavo

Subjects
Mechanics of Materials, Mechanical Engineering, General Materials Science
Abstract

The present work addresses the powder bed binder jet 3D printing as an additive manufacturing process for cement-based materials in the constructions industry. Features are created through the interaction among the droplets of the liquid binding agent and the layered powder bed. The printhead movement over the powder bed at a given feed rate forms voxels and single-lines from the coalesce of successive droplets and adjacent lines are consolidated to create the designed cross-section. Here, statistical models have been developed to study the effect of printing parameters (aggregate particle size, feed rate, velocity of powder spread, pressure of the fluid and nozzle diameter) on the resultant dimension of a single printed line, using a factorial design of experiment. The hardware of the 3D printer, the physical properties of the powder blend and binder are initial constraints for designing voxels. Linear regression models of significant parameters are presented. Pressure is one of the most significant factors, it has a profound effect on the granule formation mechanism. Cubic samples printed with higher pressure level are characterized by higher residual porosities from crater channels during the printing process. The results demonstrate a fundamental understanding of the binder–powder interaction for cementitious materials which can be leveraged to determine the minimum printable feature with required dimensional accuracy, based on the chosen process parameters.

Published
2022
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26. Laser-Directed Energy Deposition of Dissimilar Maraging Steels with a Defect-Free Interface: Design for Improved Surface Hardness and Fracture Toughness

Author

Faraz Deirmina, Sasan Amirabdollahian, Luke Harris, Eleonora Bettini, Raveendra Siriki, Massimo Pellizzari, Paolo Bosetti, and Alberto Molinari

Subjects
Mechanics of Materials, Materials Chemistry, Metals and Alloys, Condensed Matter Physics
Abstract

Maraging steels are a class of low-carbon ultra-high-strength martensitic steels. Due to their excellent weldability, these steels have been widely applied for laser-based additive manufacturing (AM). MAR-60HRC is a newly developed maraging grade for AM with a nominal chemical composition of 13.0Ni-15.0Co-10.0Mo-0.2Ti, Fe bal. (wt%), capable of achieving hardness levels of ~ 740 HV. Alternatively, 18Ni300 is a commercialized maraging steel with an excellent combination of strength and toughness at the peak aged hardness (i.e., ~ 590 HV). This work aims to investigate the properties and microstructure of MAR-60HRC fabricated by Laser Directed Energy Deposition (L-DED). Further, the manufacturability of bimetallic parts comprising a tough 18Ni300 core and a hard MAR-60HRC on the surface was evaluated. After proper aging, the multi-layered material showed a surface hardness of ~ 720 HV1 and apparent fracture toughness of 71 MPa m1/2, higher than that of MAR-60HRC (i.e., 60 MPa m1/2), and lower than 18Ni300 (i.e., 90 MPa m1/2). The excellent combination of surface hardness and fracture toughness was discussed, considering the crack arrest at the interface and the flawless interface between the two steels. Graphical Abstract

Published
2023
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31. Modelling the end of a Zero-COVID strategy using nirmatrelvir/ritonavir, vaccination and NPIs in Wallis and Futuna

Author

Antoine Brault, Cécile Tran-Kiem, Clément Couteaux, Valérie Olié, Juliette Paireau, Yazdan Yazdanpanah, Jade Ghosn, Guillaume Martin-Blondel, Paolo Bosetti, Simon Cauchemez, Modélisation mathématique des maladies infectieuses - Mathematical modelling of Infectious Diseases, Institut Pasteur [Paris] (IP)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité), Collège Doctoral, Sorbonne Université (SU), Agence de Santé des îles Wallis & Futuna, Santé publique France - French National Public Health Agency [Saint-Maurice, France], Infection, Anti-microbiens, Modélisation, Evolution (IAME (UMR_S_1137 / U1137)), Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-Université Sorbonne Paris Nord, Institut Toulousain des Maladies Infectieuses et Inflammatoires (Infinity), Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Centre Hospitalier Universitaire de Toulouse (CHU Toulouse), ANR-10-LABX-0062,IBEID,Integrative Biology of Emerging Infectious Diseases(2010), ANR-16-CONV-0005,INCEPTION,Institut Convergences pour l'étude de l'Emergence des Pathologies au Travers des Individus et des populatiONs(2016), Duchange, Nathalie, Integrative Biology of Emerging Infectious Diseases - - IBEID2010 - ANR-10-LABX-0062 - LABX - VALID, Institut Convergences pour l'étude de l'Emergence des Pathologies au Travers des Individus et des populatiONs - - INCEPTION2016 - ANR-16-CONV-0005 - CONV - VALID, Institut Pasteur [Paris]-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité), CHU Toulouse [Toulouse], and Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)

Subjects
NPIs, SARS-CoV-2, Nirmatrelvir/ritonavir, Health Policy, Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health, Paxlovid, Obstetrics and Gynecology, COVID-19, [INFO.INFO-MO]Computer Science [cs]/Modeling and Simulation, Zero-COVID, Treatment, Psychiatry and Mental health, Infectious Diseases, [SDV.MHEP.MI]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Human health and pathology/Infectious diseases, [SDV.SPEE] Life Sciences [q-bio]/Santé publique et épidémiologie, Pediatrics, Perinatology and Child Health, Internal Medicine, [SDV.MHEP.MI] Life Sciences [q-bio]/Human health and pathology/Infectious diseases, [SDV.SPEE]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Santé publique et épidémiologie, [INFO.INFO-MO] Computer Science [cs]/Modeling and Simulation, Geriatrics and Gerontology, Antiviral, Vaccine
Abstract

International audience; Ending Zero-COVID is challenging, particularly when vaccine coverage is low. Considering Wallis and Futuna, a French Zero-COVID territory affected by reluctance to vaccination, low immunity and high levels of comorbidities, we investigate how targeted use of nirmatrelvir/ritonavir (brand name Paxlovid) can complement vaccination and non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and mitigate the epidemic rebound expected when Zero-COVID ends.We developed a discrete age-stratified compartmental model describing SARS-CoV-2 spread and healthcare impact once Wallis and Futuna reopens. It accounts for comorbidity risk groups (CRG), vaccine coverage (2 doses, 3 doses), the effectiveness of vaccines (recent or old injection), treatments and NPIs. In our baseline scenario, cases aged 65+ in intermediate/high CRG and 40+ in high CRG are eligible for treatment.FindingsThe epidemic is expected to start 13-20 days after reopening with a doubling time of 1·6-3·7 days. For medium transmission intensity (R0=5), 134 (115-156) hospital admissions are expected within 3 months, with no pharmaceutical measures. In our baseline scenario, admissions are reduced by 11%-21% if 50% of the target group receive treatment, with maximum impact when combined with NPIs and vaccination. The number of hospitalisations averted (HA) per patient treated (PT) is maximum when 65+ in high CRG are targeted (0·124 HA/PT), quickly followed by 65+ in intermediate/high CRG (0·097 HA/PT), and any 65+ (0·093 HA/PT). Expanding the target group increases both PT and HA, but marginal gains diminish.Modelling suggests that test and treat may contribute to the mitigation of epidemic rebounds at the end of Zero-COVID, particularly in populations with low immunity and high levels of comorbidities.

Published
2022
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33. Reconstruction of Transmission Pairs for Novel Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Mainland China: Estimation of Superspreading Events, Serial Interval, and Hazard of Infection

Author

Lin Wang, Benjamin J. Cowling, Zhanwei Du, Xiao Ke Xu, Sheikh Taslim Ali, Ye Wu, Paolo Bosetti, Eric H. Y. Lau, and Xiao Fan Liu

Subjects
Adult, Male, 0301 basic medicine, Microbiology (medical), Mainland China, China, medicine.medical_specialty, Adolescent, Standard deviation, law.invention, Young Adult, 03 medical and health sciences, 0302 clinical medicine, law, Epidemiology, Pandemic, Major Article, Humans, Medicine, hazard of infection, 030212 general & internal medicine, Child, Pandemics, Aged, serial interval, Estimation, Travel, SARS-CoV-2, business.industry, super-spreading event, transmission, COVID-19, Infant, Middle Aged, Hazard, 3. Good health, AcademicSubjects/MED00290, 030104 developmental biology, Infectious Diseases, Transmission (mechanics), Child, Preschool, business, Serial interval, Demography
Abstract

BackgroundKnowledge on the epidemiological features and transmission patterns of novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is accumulating. Detailed line-list data with household settings can advance the understanding of COVID-19 transmission dynamics.MethodsA unique database with detailed demographic characteristics, travel history, social relationships, and epidemiological timelines for 1407 transmission pairs that formed 643 transmission clusters in mainland China was reconstructed from 9120 COVID-19 confirmed cases reported during 15 January–29 February 2020. Statistical model fittings were used to identify the superspreading events and estimate serial interval distributions. Age- and sex-stratified hazards of infection were estimated for household vs nonhousehold transmissions.ResultsThere were 34 primary cases identified as superspreaders, with 5 superspreading events occurred within households. Mean and standard deviation of serial intervals were estimated as 5.0 (95% credible interval [CrI], 4.4–5.5) days and 5.2 (95% CrI, 4.9–5.7) days for household transmissions and 5.2 (95% CrI, 4.6–5.8) and 5.3 (95% CrI, 4.9–5.7) days for nonhousehold transmissions, respectively. The hazard of being infected outside of households is higher for people aged 18–64 years, whereas hazard of being infected within households is higher for young and old people.ConclusionsNonnegligible frequency of superspreading events, short serial intervals, and a higher risk of being infected outside of households for male people of working age indicate a significant barrier to the identification and management of COVID-19 cases, which requires enhanced nonpharmaceutical interventions to mitigate this pandemic.

Published
2020
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34. Early chains of transmission of COVID-19 in France, January to March 2020

Author

Juliette Paireau, Alexandra Mailles, Catherine Eisenhauer, Franck de Laval, François Delon, Paolo Bosetti, Henrik Salje, Valérie Pontiès, Simon Cauchemez, Modélisation mathématique des maladies infectieuses - Mathematical modelling of Infectious Diseases, Institut Pasteur [Paris] (IP)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité), Santé publique France - French National Public Health Agency [Saint-Maurice, France], Sciences Economiques et Sociales de la Santé & Traitement de l'Information Médicale (SESSTIM - U1252 INSERM - Aix Marseille Univ - UMR 259 IRD), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Aix Marseille Université (AMU)-Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM), Centre d'épidémiologie et de santé publique des armées [Marseille] (CESPA), Service de Santé des Armées, Institut des sciences de la santé publique [Marseille] (ISSPAM), University of Cambridge [UK] (CAM), Santé publique France, Haut-de-France [Lille, France], This work was supported by the LabEx Integrative Biology of Emerging Infectious Diseases (IBEID) (Grant Number ANR-10-LABX-62-IBEID), Santé Publique France, project Theracov, the INCEPTION project (PIA/ANR-16-CONV-0005), the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under grants 101003589 (RECOVER) and 874735 (VEO), and the National Research Agency (ANR) through the ANR-Flash call for COVID-19 (Grant ANR-20-COVI-0018)., ANR-10-LABX-0062,IBEID,Integrative Biology of Emerging Infectious Diseases(2010), ANR-16-CONV-0005,INCEPTION,Institut Convergences pour l'étude de l'Emergence des Pathologies au Travers des Individus et des populatiONs(2016), ANR-20-COVI-0018,TheraCoV,Dynamique virale au niveau individuel et populationnel : implications pour l'optimisation des stratégies antivirales(2020), European Project: 101003589, H2020-SC1-PHE-CORONAVIRUS-2020,RECOVER(2020), European Project: 874735,H2020-SC1-2019-Single-Stage-RTD,VEO(2020), PAIREAU, Juliette, Integrative Biology of Emerging Infectious Diseases - - IBEID2010 - ANR-10-LABX-0062 - LABX - VALID, Institut Convergences pour l'étude de l'Emergence des Pathologies au Travers des Individus et des populatiONs - - INCEPTION2016 - ANR-16-CONV-0005 - CONV - VALID, Dynamique virale au niveau individuel et populationnel : implications pour l'optimisation des stratégies antivirales - - TheraCoV2020 - ANR-20-COVI-0018 - COVID-19 - VALID, Rapid European COVID-19 Emergency Response research - RECOVER - - H2020-SC1-PHE-CORONAVIRUS-20202020-02-14 - 2022-02-13 - 101003589 - VALID, and Versatile Emerging infectious disease Observatory - VEO - - H2020-SC1-2019-Single-Stage-RTD2020-01-01 - 2024-12-31 - 874735 - VALID

Subjects
MESH: Pandemics, MESH: Humans, SARS-CoV-2, Epidemiology, transmission, Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health, COVID-19, MESH: Retrospective Studies, contact tracing, secondary clinical attack rate, MESH: Contact Tracing, [SDV.SPEE] Life Sciences [q-bio]/Santé publique et épidémiologie, Virology, Humans, MESH: COVID-19, superspreading, MESH: SARS-CoV-2, [SDV.SPEE]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Santé publique et épidémiologie, cluster, Pandemics, Retrospective Studies
Abstract

Introduction SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, has spread rapidly worldwide. In January 2020, a surveillance system was implemented in France for early detection of cases and their contacts to help limit secondary transmissions. Aim To use contact-tracing data collected during the initial phase of the COVID-19 pandemic to better characterise SARS-CoV-2 transmission. Methods We analysed data collected during contact tracing and retrospective epidemiological investigations in France from 24 January to 30 March 2020. We assessed the secondary clinical attack rate and characterised the risk of a contact becoming a case. We described chains of transmission and estimated key parameters of spread. Results During the study period, 6,082 contacts of 735 confirmed cases were traced. The overall secondary clinical attack rate was 4.1% (95% confidence interval (CI): 3.6–4.6), increasing with age of index case and contact. Compared with co-workers/friends, family contacts were at higher risk of becoming cases (adjusted odds ratio (AOR): 2.1, 95% CI: 1.4–3.0) and nosocomial contacts were at lower risk (AOR: 0.3, 95% CI: 0.1–0.7). Of 328 infector/infectee pairs, 49% were family members. The distribution of secondary cases was highly over-dispersed: 80% of secondary cases were caused by 10% of cases. The mean serial interval was 5.1 days (interquartile range (IQR): 2–8 days) in contact tracing pairs, where late transmission events may be censored, and 6.8 (3–8) days in pairs investigated retrospectively. Conclusion This study increases knowledge of SARS-CoV-2 transmission, including the importance of superspreading events during the onset of the pandemic.

Published
2022
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35. Impact of booster vaccination on the control of COVID-19 Delta wave in the context of waning immunity: application to France in the winter 2021/22

Author

Paolo Bosetti, Cécile Tran Kiem, Alessio Andronico, Juliette Paireau, Daniel Levy-Bruhl, Lise Alter, Arnaud Fontanet, Simon Cauchemez, Modélisation mathématique des maladies infectieuses - Mathematical modelling of Infectious Diseases, Institut Pasteur [Paris] (IP)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité), Collège Doctoral, Sorbonne Université (SU), Santé publique France - French National Public Health Agency [Saint-Maurice, France], Haute Autorité de Santé [Saint-Denis La Plaine] (HAS), Epidémiologie des Maladies Emergentes - Emerging Diseases Epidemiology, Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-Pasteur-Cnam Risques infectieux et émergents (PACRI), Institut Pasteur [Paris] (IP)-Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers [CNAM] (CNAM), HESAM Université - Communauté d'universités et d'établissements Hautes écoles Sorbonne Arts et métiers université (HESAM)-HESAM Université - Communauté d'universités et d'établissements Hautes écoles Sorbonne Arts et métiers université (HESAM)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-Institut Pasteur [Paris] (IP)-Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers [CNAM] (CNAM), HESAM Université - Communauté d'universités et d'établissements Hautes écoles Sorbonne Arts et métiers université (HESAM)-HESAM Université - Communauté d'universités et d'établissements Hautes écoles Sorbonne Arts et métiers université (HESAM), Pasteur-Cnam Risques infectieux et émergents (PACRI), HESAM Université - Communauté d'universités et d'établissements Hautes écoles Sorbonne Arts et métiers université (HESAM)-HESAM Université - Communauté d'universités et d'établissements Hautes écoles Sorbonne Arts et métiers université (HESAM)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité), We acknowledge financial support from the Investissement d’Avenir program, the Laboratoire d’Excellence Integrative Biology of Emerging Infectious Diseases program (grant ANR-10-LABX-62-IBEID), HAS, Santé Publique France, the EMERGEN project (ANRS0151), the INCEPTION project (PIA/ANR-16-CONV-0005), the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under grant 101003589 (RECOVER) and 874735 (VEO), AXA and Groupama., ANR-10-LABX-0062,IBEID,Integrative Biology of Emerging Infectious Diseases(2010), ANR-16-CONV-0005,INCEPTION,Institut Convergences pour l'étude de l'Emergence des Pathologies au Travers des Individus et des populatiONs(2016), European Project: 101003589, H2020-SC1-PHE-CORONAVIRUS-2020,RECOVER(2020), European Project: 874735,H2020-SC1-2019-Single-Stage-RTD,VEO(2020), Institut Pasteur [Paris]-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Institut Pasteur [Paris]-Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers [CNAM] (CNAM)-Institut Pasteur [Paris]-Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers [CNAM] (CNAM), Institut Pasteur [Paris]-Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers [CNAM] (CNAM), European Project: 874735,VEO, Institut Pasteur [Paris]-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPC), Université Paris Cité (UPC)-Pasteur-Cnam Risques infectieux et émergents (PACRI), HESAM Université (HESAM)-HESAM Université (HESAM)-Université Paris Cité (UPC)-Institut Pasteur [Paris]-Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers [CNAM] (CNAM), HESAM Université (HESAM)-HESAM Université (HESAM), and HESAM Université (HESAM)-HESAM Université (HESAM)-Université Paris Cité (UPC)

Subjects
0303 health sciences, COVID-19 Vaccines, SARS-CoV-2, Epidemiology, Vaccination, Immunization, Secondary, Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health, COVID-19, 3. Good health, modelling, 03 medical and health sciences, 0302 clinical medicine, [SDV.MHEP.MI]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Human health and pathology/Infectious diseases, Virology, Humans, [SDV.SPEE]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Santé publique et épidémiologie, France, Seasons, 030212 general & internal medicine, Rapid Communication, 030304 developmental biology
Abstract

Europe has experienced a large COVID-19 wave caused by the Delta variant in winter 2021/22. Using mathematical models applied to Metropolitan France, we find that boosters administered to ≥ 65, ≥ 50 or ≥ 18 year-olds may reduce the hospitalisation peak by 25%, 36% and 43% respectively, with a delay of 5 months between second and third dose. A 10% reduction in transmission rates might further reduce it by 41%, indicating that even small increases in protective behaviours may be critical to mitigate the wave.

Published
2022
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37. Epidemiology and control of SARS-CoV-2 epidemics in partially vaccinated populations: a modeling study applied to France

Author

Paolo Bosetti, Cécile Tran Kiem, Alessio Andronico, Vittoria Colizza, Yazdan Yazdanpanah, Arnaud Fontanet, Daniel Benamouzig, Simon Cauchemez, Modélisation mathématique des maladies infectieuses - Mathematical modelling of Infectious Diseases, Institut Pasteur [Paris]-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Collège doctoral [Sorbonne universités], Sorbonne Université (SU), Institut Pierre Louis d'Epidémiologie et de Santé Publique (iPLESP), Sorbonne Université (SU)-Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM), Infection, Anti-microbiens, Modélisation, Evolution (IAME (UMR_S_1137 / U1137)), Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM)-Université de Paris (UP)-Université Sorbonne Paris Nord, Services de Maladies Infectieuses et Tropicales [CHU Bichat], AP-HP - Hôpital Bichat - Claude Bernard [Paris], Assistance publique - Hôpitaux de Paris (AP-HP) (AP-HP)-Assistance publique - Hôpitaux de Paris (AP-HP) (AP-HP), Epidémiologie des Maladies Emergentes - Emerging Diseases Epidemiology, Pasteur-Cnam Risques infectieux et émergents (PACRI), Institut Pasteur [Paris]-Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers [CNAM] (CNAM)-Institut Pasteur [Paris]-Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers [CNAM] (CNAM), Institut Pasteur [Paris]-Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers [CNAM] (CNAM), Centre de sociologie des organisations (CSO), Sciences Po (Sciences Po)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), We acknowledge financial support from the Investissement d’Avenir program, the Laboratoire d’Excellence Integrative Biology of Emerging Infectious Diseases program (grant ANR-10-LABX-62-IBEID), HAS, Santé Publique France, the INCEPTION project(PIA/ANR-16-CONV-0005), the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under grant 101003589 (RECOVER) and 874735 (VEO), AXA and Groupama., ANR-10-LABX-0062,IBEID,Integrative Biology of Emerging Infectious Diseases(2010), ANR-16-CONV-0005,INCEPTION,Institut Convergences pour l'étude de l'Emergence des Pathologies au Travers des Individus et des populatiONs(2016), European Project: 101003589, H2020-SC1-PHE-CORONAVIRUS-2020,RECOVER(2020), European Project: 874735,VEO, Institut Pasteur [Paris] (IP)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité), Collège Doctoral, Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM)-Sorbonne Université (SU), Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-Université Sorbonne Paris Nord, Assistance publique - Hôpitaux de Paris (AP-HP) (AP-HP), Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-Pasteur-Cnam Risques infectieux et émergents (PACRI), Institut Pasteur [Paris] (IP)-Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers [CNAM] (CNAM), HESAM Université - Communauté d'universités et d'établissements Hautes écoles Sorbonne Arts et métiers université (HESAM)-HESAM Université - Communauté d'universités et d'établissements Hautes écoles Sorbonne Arts et métiers université (HESAM)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-Institut Pasteur [Paris] (IP)-Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers [CNAM] (CNAM), HESAM Université - Communauté d'universités et d'établissements Hautes écoles Sorbonne Arts et métiers université (HESAM)-HESAM Université - Communauté d'universités et d'établissements Hautes écoles Sorbonne Arts et métiers université (HESAM), HESAM Université - Communauté d'universités et d'établissements Hautes écoles Sorbonne Arts et métiers université (HESAM)-HESAM Université - Communauté d'universités et d'établissements Hautes écoles Sorbonne Arts et métiers université (HESAM)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité), Centre de sociologie des organisations (Sciences Po, CNRS) (CSO), We acknowledge financial support from the Investissement d’Avenir program, the Laboratoire d’Excellence Integrative Biology of Emerging Infectious Diseases program (grant ANR-10-LABX-62-IBEID), HAS, Santé Publique France, the EMERGEN project (ANRS0151), the INCEPTION project (PIA/ANR-16-CONV-0005), the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under grant 101003589 (RECOVER) and 874735 (VEO), AXA and Groupama., European Project: 874735,H2020-SC1-2019-Single-Stage-RTD,VEO(2020), Sorbonne Université, Pasteur-Cnam risques infectieux et émergents (PACRI), Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers [CNAM] (CNAM)-Institut Pasteur [Paris]-Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers [CNAM] (CNAM)-Institut Pasteur [Paris], Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers [CNAM] (CNAM)-Institut Pasteur [Paris], ANR-10-LABX-0062,IBEID,Biologie Intégrative des Maladies Infectieuses Emergentes(2011), Institut Pasteur [Paris]-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité), HESAM Université - Communauté d'universités et d'établissements Hautes écoles Sorbonne Arts et métiers université (HESAM)-HESAM Université - Communauté d'universités et d'établissements Hautes écoles Sorbonne Arts et métiers université (HESAM)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-Institut Pasteur [Paris]-Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers [CNAM] (CNAM), Benamouzig, Daniel, Integrative Biology of Emerging Infectious Diseases - - IBEID2010 - ANR-10-LABX-0062 - LABX - VALID, Institut Convergences pour l'étude de l'Emergence des Pathologies au Travers des Individus et des populatiONs - - INCEPTION2016 - ANR-16-CONV-0005 - CONV - VALID, Rapid European COVID-19 Emergency Response research - RECOVER - - H2020-SC1-PHE-CORONAVIRUS-20202020-02-14 - 2022-02-13 - 101003589 - VALID, and Versatile Emerging infectious disease Observatory - VEO - - H2020-SC1-2019-Single-Stage-RTD2020-01-01 - 2024-12-31 - 874735 - VALID

Subjects
Adult, COVID-19 Vaccines, Adolescent, [SDV]Life Sciences [q-bio], [SHS]Humanities and Social Sciences, 03 medical and health sciences, 0302 clinical medicine, [SDV.MHEP.MI]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Human health and pathology/Infectious diseases, Humans, 030212 general & internal medicine, Child, Epidemics, 030304 developmental biology, 0303 health sciences, SARS-CoV-2, Non-pharmaceutical interventions, Vaccination, Infant, Newborn, COVID-19, Infant, General Medicine, Middle Aged, 3. Good health, [SDV] Life Sciences [q-bio], Child, Preschool, Medicine, Epidemiological Models, [SDV.SPEE]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Santé publique et épidémiologie, [SHS] Humanities and Social Sciences, France, Research Article
Abstract

Background Vaccination is expected to change the epidemiology and management of SARS-CoV-2 epidemics. Methods We used an age-stratified compartmental model calibrated to French data to anticipate these changes and determine implications for the control of an autumn epidemic. We assumed vaccines reduce the risk of hospitalization, infection, and transmission if infected by 95%, 60%, and 50%, respectively. Results In our baseline scenario characterized by basic reproduction number R0=5 and a vaccine coverage of 70–80–90% among 12–17, 18–59, and ≥ 60 years old, important stress on healthcare is expected in the absence of measures. Unvaccinated adults ≥60 years old represent 3% of the population but 43% of hospitalizations. Given limited vaccine coverage, children aged 0–17 years old represent a third of infections and are responsible for almost half of transmissions. Unvaccinated individuals have a disproportionate contribution to transmission so that measures targeting them may help maximize epidemic control while minimizing costs for society compared to non-targeted approaches. Of all the interventions considered including repeated testing and non-pharmaceutical measures, vaccination of the unvaccinated is the most effective. Conclusions With the Delta variant, vaccinated individuals are well protected against hospitalization but remain at risk of infection and should therefore apply protective behaviors (e.g., mask-wearing). Targeting non-vaccinated individuals may maximize epidemic control while minimizing costs for society. Vaccinating children protects them from the deleterious effects of non-pharmaceutical measures. Control strategies should account for the changing SARS-CoV-2 epidemiology.

Published
2021
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38. Additive manufacturing for repairing: from damage identification and modeling to DLD

Author

Matteo Perini, Nicolae Balc, and Paolo Bosetti

Subjects
0209 industrial biotechnology, Engineering drawing, Scanner, business.industry, Computer science, 020502 materials, Mechanical Engineering, Process (computing), Volume (computing), 02 engineering and technology, Automation, Industrial and Manufacturing Engineering, Identification (information), 020901 industrial engineering & automation, Software, 0205 materials engineering, Computer-aided manufacturing, Numerical control, business
Abstract

Purpose This paper aims to decrease the cost of repairing operations, of the damaged mechanical components, by enabling the strong automation of the process and the reduction of manual labor. The main purpose of the hybrid repair process is to restore the original shape of the mechanical parts, by adding and removing material according to the mismatch between the damaged object and the virtual model, to restore its geometrical properties. Design/methodology/approach The DUOADD software tool translates the information collected from a 3D scanner into a digital computer aided design solid model, which can be manipulated through Siemens NX computer aided manufacturing (CAM), to obtain the tool paths, for the Direct Laser Deposition (DLD) technology. DUOADD uses octrees to effectively analyze the damaged region of the mechanical part and then to discretize the volume to be added to export CAM-compatible information as a 3D model, for additive operations. Findings DUOADD is the missing link between two valuable existing technologies, 3D scan and CAM for additive manufacturing, which can now be connected together, to perform automatic repairing. Research limitations/implications A trade-off between resolution and computational effort needs to be achieved. Practical implications DUOADD output is a STEP file, transferred to the CAM software to create the additive and the milling tool paths. The maximum deviation was 40 micrometers, as compared with the original solid model. Originality/value The paper presents a new procedure and new software tools (DUOADD), for the automation of damaged objects restoration process. DUOADD software provides suitable data for using a 5-axis computer numerical control (CNC) milling machine equipped with a DLD tool.

Published
2020
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39. Education and mental health: good reasons to vaccinate children

Author

Arnaud Fontanet, Simon Cauchemez, Violette Mouro, Cécile Tran Kiem, Angèle Consoli, Paolo Bosetti, Modélisation mathématique des maladies infectieuses - Mathematical modelling of Infectious Diseases, Institut Pasteur [Paris] (IP)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Collège Doctoral, Sorbonne Université (SU), Ministère des Solidarités et de la Santé [Paris, France], CHU Pitié-Salpêtrière [AP-HP], Assistance publique - Hôpitaux de Paris (AP-HP) (AP-HP)-Sorbonne Université (SU), Abord dimensionnel des épisodes psychotiques de l’enfant et de l’adolescent: implications génétiques, métaboliques et auto-immunes, Groupe de recherche clinique Troubles psychiatriques et développement (GRC 15 - PSYDEV), Sorbonne Université (SU)-Sorbonne Université (SU), Epidémiologie des Maladies Emergentes - Emerging Diseases Epidemiology, Pasteur-Cnam Risques infectieux et émergents (PACRI), Institut Pasteur [Paris] (IP)-Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers [CNAM] (CNAM), HESAM Université - Communauté d'universités et d'établissements Hautes écoles Sorbonne Arts et métiers université (HESAM)-HESAM Université - Communauté d'universités et d'établissements Hautes écoles Sorbonne Arts et métiers université (HESAM)-Institut Pasteur [Paris] (IP)-Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers [CNAM] (CNAM), HESAM Université - Communauté d'universités et d'établissements Hautes écoles Sorbonne Arts et métiers université (HESAM)-HESAM Université - Communauté d'universités et d'établissements Hautes écoles Sorbonne Arts et métiers université (HESAM), Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers [CNAM] (CNAM), HESAM Université - Communauté d'universités et d'établissements Hautes écoles Sorbonne Arts et métiers université (HESAM), We declare funding from Investissement d'Avenir programme, the Laboratoire d'Excellence Integrative Biology of Emerging Infectious Diseases programme, and the EU's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme., ANR-10-LABX-0062,IBEID,Integrative Biology of Emerging Infectious Diseases(2010), Institut Pasteur [Paris]-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Collège doctoral [Sorbonne universités], Service de Psychiatrie de l'Enfant et de l'Adolescent [CHU Pitié-Salpêtrière] (SPEA), Assistance publique - Hôpitaux de Paris (AP-HP) (AP-HP)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Assistance publique - Hôpitaux de Paris (AP-HP) (AP-HP)-Sorbonne Université (SU), Abord dimensionnel des épisodes phychotiques de l'enfant et de l'adolescent : implications génétiques, métaboliques et auto-immunes (PSYDEV), and Institut Pasteur [Paris]-Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers [CNAM] (CNAM)-Institut Pasteur [Paris]-Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers [CNAM] (CNAM)

Subjects
2019-20 coronavirus outbreak, medicine.medical_specialty, COVID-19 Vaccines, Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), [SDV]Life Sciences [q-bio], MEDLINE, 030204 cardiovascular system & hematology, Education, 03 medical and health sciences, 0302 clinical medicine, [MATH.MATH-ST]Mathematics [math]/Statistics [math.ST], MESH: Child, Correspondence, medicine, Humans, 030212 general & internal medicine, Child, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS, MESH: Humans, business.industry, MESH: Mental Health, Vaccination, MESH: Education, MESH: Patient Acceptance of Health Care, General Medicine, MESH: Vaccination, Patient Acceptance of Health Care, Mental health, Mental Health, MESH: COVID-19 Vaccines, Family medicine, business
Abstract

International audience

Published
2021
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40. Benefits and risks associated with different uses of the COVID-19 vaccine Vaxzevria: a modelling study, France, May to September 2021

Author

Lise Alter, Daniel Lévy-Bruhl, Cécile Tran Kiem, Pierre-Yves Boëlle, Paolo Bosetti, Simon Cauchemez, Juliette Paireau, Alessio Andronico, Arnaud Fontanet, Modélisation mathématique des maladies infectieuses - Mathematical modelling of Infectious Diseases, Institut Pasteur [Paris] (IP)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Collège Doctoral, Sorbonne Université (SU), Santé publique France - French National Public Health Agency [Saint-Maurice, France], Haute Autorité de Santé [Saint-Denis La Plaine] (HAS), Institut Pierre Louis d'Epidémiologie et de Santé Publique (iPLESP), Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM)-Sorbonne Université (SU), Epidémiologie des Maladies Emergentes - Emerging Diseases Epidemiology, Pasteur-Cnam Risques infectieux et émergents (PACRI), Institut Pasteur [Paris] (IP)-Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers [CNAM] (CNAM), HESAM Université - Communauté d'universités et d'établissements Hautes écoles Sorbonne Arts et métiers université (HESAM)-HESAM Université - Communauté d'universités et d'établissements Hautes écoles Sorbonne Arts et métiers université (HESAM)-Institut Pasteur [Paris] (IP)-Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers [CNAM] (CNAM), HESAM Université - Communauté d'universités et d'établissements Hautes écoles Sorbonne Arts et métiers université (HESAM)-HESAM Université - Communauté d'universités et d'établissements Hautes écoles Sorbonne Arts et métiers université (HESAM), We acknowledge financial support from the Investissement d’Avenir programme, the Laboratoire d’Excellence Integrative Biology of Emerging Infectious Diseases programme (grant ANR-10-LABX-62-IBEID), and the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grants 101003589 (RECOVER) and 874735 (VEO), AXA, Groupama, INCEPTION project (PIA/ANR-16-CONV-0005)., ANR-10-LABX-0062,IBEID,Integrative Biology of Emerging Infectious Diseases(2010), ANR-16-CONV-0005,INCEPTION,Institut Convergences pour l'étude de l'Emergence des Pathologies au Travers des Individus et des populatiONs(2016), European Project: 101003589, H2020-SC1-PHE-CORONAVIRUS-2020,RECOVER(2020), European Project: 874735,H2020-SC1-2019-Single-Stage-RTD,VEO(2020), Gestionnaire, HAL Sorbonne Université 5, Integrative Biology of Emerging Infectious Diseases - - IBEID2010 - ANR-10-LABX-0062 - LABX - VALID, Institut Convergences pour l'étude de l'Emergence des Pathologies au Travers des Individus et des populatiONs - - INCEPTION2016 - ANR-16-CONV-0005 - CONV - VALID, Rapid European COVID-19 Emergency Response research - RECOVER - - H2020-SC1-PHE-CORONAVIRUS-20202020-02-14 - 2022-02-13 - 101003589 - VALID, Versatile Emerging infectious disease Observatory - VEO - - H2020-SC1-2019-Single-Stage-RTD2020-01-01 - 2024-12-31 - 874735 - VALID, Institut Pasteur [Paris]-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Collège doctoral [Sorbonne universités], Sorbonne Université (SU)-Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM), Institut Pasteur [Paris]-Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers [CNAM] (CNAM)-Institut Pasteur [Paris]-Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers [CNAM] (CNAM), Institut Pasteur [Paris]-Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers [CNAM] (CNAM), and European Project: 874735,VEO

Subjects
2019-20 coronavirus outbreak, COVID-19 Vaccines, Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), Epidemiology, Vaxzevria, 030204 cardiovascular system & hematology, Risk Assessment, Young Adult, 03 medical and health sciences, 0302 clinical medicine, vaccine, Virology, Environmental health, Humans, Medicine, benefit-risk balance, 030212 general & internal medicine, Young adult, Adverse effect, thrombosis, SARS-CoV-2, business.industry, Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health, COVID-19, AstraZeneca, 3. Good health, Metropolitan France, Vaccination, [SDV.SPEE] Life Sciences [q-bio]/Santé publique et épidémiologie, [SDV.SPEE]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Santé publique et épidémiologie, France, Risk of death, business, Risk assessment, Rapid Communication
Abstract

International audience; Thrombosis with thrombocytopenia (TTS) has been identified as a rare adverse event following COVID-19 vaccination with Vaxzevria. We modelled the benefits and risks of Vaxzevria distribution from May to September 2021 in metropolitan France where other vaccines are available, considering French hospitalisation data and European data on TTS. Across different scenarios, benefits of Vaxzevria distribution in people 55 years and older exceeded the risk of death from COVID-19. In young adults, risks were at least of similar magnitude as benefits.

Published
2021
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41. Lockdown as a last resort option in case of COVID-19 epidemic rebound: a modelling study

Author

Paolo Bosetti, Cécile Tran Kiem, Yazdan Yazdanpanah, Henrik Salje, Pascal Crépey, Daniel Levy Bruhl, Pierre-Yves Boëlle, Simon Cauchemez, Modélisation mathématique des maladies infectieuses - Mathematical modelling of Infectious Diseases, Institut Pasteur [Paris] (IP)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Collège Doctoral, Sorbonne Université (SU), Recherche en Pharmaco-épidémiologie et Recours aux Soins (REPERES), Université de Rennes (UR)-École des Hautes Études en Santé Publique [EHESP] (EHESP), École des Hautes Études en Santé Publique [EHESP] (EHESP), Département Méthodes quantitatives en santé publique (METIS), Santé publique France - French National Public Health Agency [Saint-Maurice, France], Infection, Anti-microbiens, Modélisation, Evolution (IAME (UMR_S_1137 / U1137)), Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-Université Sorbonne Paris Nord, University of Cambridge [UK] (CAM), Institut Pierre Louis d'Epidémiologie et de Santé Publique (iPLESP), Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM)-Sorbonne Université (SU), We acknowledge financial support from the Investissement d’Avenir program, the Laboratoire d’Excellence Integrative Biology of Emerging Infectious Diseases program (grant ANR-10-LABX-62-IBEID), Santé Publique France, the INCEPTION project (PIA/ANR-16-CONV-0005), and the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under grants 101003589 (RECOVER) and 874735 (VEO), AXA., ANR-10-LABX-0062,IBEID,Integrative Biology of Emerging Infectious Diseases(2010), ANR-16-CONV-0005,INCEPTION,Institut Convergences pour l'étude de l'Emergence des Pathologies au Travers des Individus et des populatiONs(2016), European Project: 101003589, H2020-SC1-PHE-CORONAVIRUS-2020,RECOVER(2020), European Project: 874735,H2020-SC1-2019-Single-Stage-RTD,VEO(2020), HAL-SU, Gestionnaire, Integrative Biology of Emerging Infectious Diseases - - IBEID2010 - ANR-10-LABX-0062 - LABX - VALID, Institut Convergences pour l'étude de l'Emergence des Pathologies au Travers des Individus et des populatiONs - - INCEPTION2016 - ANR-16-CONV-0005 - CONV - VALID, Rapid European COVID-19 Emergency Response research - RECOVER - - H2020-SC1-PHE-CORONAVIRUS-20202020-02-14 - 2022-02-13 - 101003589 - VALID, Versatile Emerging infectious disease Observatory - VEO - - H2020-SC1-2019-Single-Stage-RTD2020-01-01 - 2024-12-31 - 874735 - VALID, Institut Pasteur [Paris]-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Collège doctoral [Sorbonne universités], Université de Rennes 1 (UR1), Université de Rennes (UNIV-RENNES)-Université de Rennes (UNIV-RENNES)-École des Hautes Études en Santé Publique [EHESP] (EHESP), Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM)-Université de Paris (UP)-Université Sorbonne Paris Nord, Sorbonne Université (SU)-Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM), European Project: 874735,VEO, Salje, Henrik [0000-0003-3626-4254], and Apollo - University of Cambridge Repository

Subjects
0301 basic medicine, Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), Epidemiology, Computer science, Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), Context (language use), epidemic modelling, law.invention, modelling, 03 medical and health sciences, 0302 clinical medicine, law, Virology, Pandemic, Lockdown, Humans, Operations management, 030212 general & internal medicine, Duration (project management), Pandemics, air-borne infections, [SDV.MHEP] Life Sciences [q-bio]/Human health and pathology, SARS-CoV-2, Research, Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health, Metropolitan area, Intensive care unit, 3. Good health, 030104 developmental biology, [SDV.SPEE] Life Sciences [q-bio]/Santé publique et épidémiologie, Healthcare settings, Communicable Disease Control, [SDV.SPEE]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Santé publique et épidémiologie, France, Covid-19, [SDV.MHEP]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Human health and pathology, policy, Confinement
Abstract

Background Given its high economic and societal cost, policymakers might be reluctant to implement a large-scale lockdown in case of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) epidemic rebound. They may consider it as a last resort option if alternative control measures fail to reduce transmission. Aim We developed a modelling framework to ascertain the use of lockdown to ensure intensive care unit (ICU) capacity does not exceed a peak target defined by policymakers. Methods We used a deterministic compartmental model describing transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and the trajectories of COVID-19 patients in healthcare settings, accounting for age-specific mixing patterns and an increasing probability of severe outcomes with age. The framework is illustrated in the context of metropolitan France. Results The daily incidence of ICU admissions and the number of occupied ICU beds are the most robust indicators to decide when a lockdown should be triggered. When the doubling time of hospitalisations estimated before lockdown is between 8 and 20 days, lockdown should be enforced when ICU admissions reach 3.0–3.7 and 7.8–9.5 per million for peak targets of 62 and 154 ICU beds per million (4,000 and 10,000 beds for metropolitan France), respectively. When implemented earlier, the lockdown duration required to get back below a desired level is also shorter. Conclusions We provide simple indicators and triggers to decide if and when a last-resort lockdown should be implemented to avoid saturation of ICU. These metrics can support the planning and real-time management of successive COVID-19 pandemic waves.

Published
2021
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42. Direct Laser Deposition for Tailored Structure

Author

Matteo Perini, Paolo Bosetti, Alessia Teresa Silvestri, Antonino Squillace, and Sasan Amirabdollahian

Subjects
Structure (mathematical logic), Fabrication, Additive manufacturing, Process (engineering), business.industry, Computer science, Tailored structures, Direct energy deposition, DLD, Hybrid production, Context (language use), Cladding (construction), Manufacturing, Deposition (phase transition), Reduction (mathematics), business, Process engineering
Abstract

In the context of Industry 4.0, interest is increasing towards Additive Manufacturing processes due to their several advantages. Among these, the Direct Laser Deposition (DLD) is an innovative technology for additive metal part fabrication, and it is currently demonstrating its ability to revolutionize the manufacturing industry. It is particularly interesting for industrial applications in terms of reduction of waste materials by starting with fewer feedstocks, reduction of machining time by only have material where it is needed but, above all, it is interesting to extend the life of parts. Indeed, with the DLD, it is possible to repair an item or coat parts via cladding, making it more wear-resistant. It is also possible to give "another life" to broken or waste components, for example, by replacing the damaged area using new material. Moreover, particularly intriguing is the possibility to create hybrid or graded parts by varying material/alloy concentrations. This paper aims to combine the abovementioned advantages to develop tailored structures in order to accomplish complex and functional products. For this purpose, a specific case study was investigated, starting with the study of the appropriate powders to use and ending with the printing process using the DMG Mori Lasertec65. Microstructural and mechanical analyses were carried out to evaluate the products and to validate the process. The final results show the properties and performances of products obtained using this technology.

Published
2021
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43. A reconstruction of early cryptic COVID spread

Author

Simon Cauchemez and Paolo Bosetti

Subjects
2019-20 coronavirus outbreak, Multidisciplinary, Geography, Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), Pandemic, Genealogy
Abstract

To acknowledge bigger to approaching pandemics, we charge accept how the SARS-CoV-2 virus broadcast so rapidly. A archetypal of COVID-19 advance sheds ablaze on cryptic transmission, undetected by surveillance efforts, in aboriginal 2020. Modelling undetected cases of infection at the alpha of the pandemic.

Published
2021
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44. A modelling study investigating short and medium-term challenges for COVID-19 vaccination: From prioritisation to the relaxation of measures

Author

Daniel Lévy-Bruhl, Pascal Crépey, Pierre-Yves Boëlle, Paolo Bosetti, Cécile Tran Kiem, Vittoria Colizza, Amélie Gabet, Clément Massonnaud, Chiara Poletto, Valérie Olié, Arnaud Fontanet, Laura Zanetti, Simon Cauchemez, Modélisation mathématique des maladies infectieuses - Mathematical modelling of Infectious Diseases, Institut Pasteur [Paris] (IP)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Sorbonne Université (SU), Recherche en Pharmaco-épidémiologie et Recours aux Soins (REPERES), Université de Rennes (UR)-École des Hautes Études en Santé Publique [EHESP] (EHESP), Département d'Informatique Médicale (D2IM), CHU Rouen, Normandie Université (NU)-Normandie Université (NU), Santé publique France - French National Public Health Agency [Saint-Maurice, France], Institut Pierre Louis d'Epidémiologie et de Santé Publique (iPLESP), Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM)-Sorbonne Université (SU), Epidémiologie des Maladies Emergentes - Emerging Diseases Epidemiology, Pasteur-Cnam Risques infectieux et émergents (PACRI), Institut Pasteur [Paris] (IP)-Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers [CNAM] (CNAM), HESAM Université - Communauté d'universités et d'établissements Hautes écoles Sorbonne Arts et métiers université (HESAM)-HESAM Université - Communauté d'universités et d'établissements Hautes écoles Sorbonne Arts et métiers université (HESAM)-Institut Pasteur [Paris] (IP)-Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers [CNAM] (CNAM), HESAM Université - Communauté d'universités et d'établissements Hautes écoles Sorbonne Arts et métiers université (HESAM)-HESAM Université - Communauté d'universités et d'établissements Hautes écoles Sorbonne Arts et métiers université (HESAM), Haute Autorité de Santé [Saint-Denis La Plaine] (HAS), École des Hautes Études en Santé Publique [EHESP] (EHESP), Département Méthodes quantitatives en santé publique (METIS), We acknowledge financial support from Haute Autorité de Santé, the Investissement d'Avenir program, the Laboratoire d'Excellence Integrative Biology of Emerging Infectious Diseases program (grant ANR-10-LABX-62-IBEID), Santé Publique France, the INCEPTION project (PIA/ANR-16-CONV-0005), AXA, Groupama and the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under grants 101003589 (RECOVER) and 874735 (VEO)., We are much grateful to the COVID-NET team from the US CDC for having kindly provided us with complementary analyses from the COVID-NET database., ANR-10-LABX-0062,IBEID,Integrative Biology of Emerging Infectious Diseases(2010), ANR-16-CONV-0005,INCEPTION,Institut Convergences pour l'étude de l'Emergence des Pathologies au Travers des Individus et des populatiONs(2016), European Project: 101003589, H2020-SC1-PHE-CORONAVIRUS-2020,RECOVER(2020), European Project: 874735,H2020-SC1-2019-Single-Stage-RTD,VEO(2020), Gestionnaire, HAL Sorbonne Université 5, Integrative Biology of Emerging Infectious Diseases - - IBEID2010 - ANR-10-LABX-0062 - LABX - VALID, Institut Convergences pour l'étude de l'Emergence des Pathologies au Travers des Individus et des populatiONs - - INCEPTION2016 - ANR-16-CONV-0005 - CONV - VALID, Rapid European COVID-19 Emergency Response research - RECOVER - - H2020-SC1-PHE-CORONAVIRUS-20202020-02-14 - 2022-02-13 - 101003589 - VALID, Versatile Emerging infectious disease Observatory - VEO - - H2020-SC1-2019-Single-Stage-RTD2020-01-01 - 2024-12-31 - 874735 - VALID, Institut Pasteur [Paris]-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Université de Rennes 1 (UR1), Université de Rennes (UNIV-RENNES)-Université de Rennes (UNIV-RENNES)-École des Hautes Études en Santé Publique [EHESP] (EHESP), Sorbonne Université (SU)-Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM), Institut Pasteur [Paris]-Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers [CNAM] (CNAM)-Institut Pasteur [Paris]-Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers [CNAM] (CNAM), and European Project: 874735,VEO

Subjects
Medicine (General), Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), Context (language use), Disease, Medium term, law.invention, Comorbidities, 03 medical and health sciences, 0302 clinical medicine, R5-920, law, Environmental health, medicine, Prioritisation, 030212 general & internal medicine, 030304 developmental biology, 0303 health sciences, business.industry, SARS-CoV-2, COVID-19, Relaxation of measures, Vaccination, General Medicine, medicine.disease, Comorbidity, 3. Good health, Transmission (mechanics), [SDV.SPEE] Life Sciences [q-bio]/Santé publique et épidémiologie, [SDV.SPEE]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Santé publique et épidémiologie, business, Basic reproduction number, Research Paper
Abstract

Background: The roll-out of COVID-19 vaccines is a multi-faceted challenge whose performance depends on pace of vaccination, vaccine characteristics and heterogeneities in individual risks. Methods: We developed a mathematical model accounting for the risk of severe disease by age and comorbidity, and transmission dynamics. We compared vaccine prioritisation strategies in the early roll-out stage and quantified the extent to which measures could be relaxed as a function of the vaccine coverage achieved in France. Findings: Prioritizing at-risk individuals reduces morbi-mortality the most if vaccines only reduce severity, but is of less importance if vaccines also substantially reduce infectivity or susceptibility. Age is the most important factor to consider for prioritization; additionally accounting for comorbidities increases the performance of the campaign in a context of scarce resources. Vaccinating 90% of ≥65 y.o. and 70% of 18–64 y.o. before autumn 2021 with a vaccine that reduces severity by 90% and susceptibility by 80%, we find that control measures reducing transmission rates by 15–27% should be maintained to remain below 1000 daily hospital admissions in France with a highly transmissible variant (basic reproduction number R0 = 4). Assuming 90% of ≥65 y.o. are vaccinated, full relaxation of control measures might be achieved with a vaccine coverage of 89–100% in 18–64 y.o or 60–69% of 0–64 y.o. Interpretation: Age and comorbidity-based vaccine prioritization strategies could reduce the burden of the disease. Very high vaccination coverage may be required to completely relax control measures. Vaccination of children, if possible, could lower coverage targets necessary to achieve this objective. Funding: We acknowledge financial support from Haute Autorite de Sante, the Investissement d'Avenir program, the Laboratoire d'Excellence Integrative Biology of Emerging Infectious Diseases program (grant ANR-10-LABX-62-IBEID), Sante Publique France, the INCEPTION project (PIA/ANR-16-CONV-0005), AXA, Groupama and the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under grants 101003589 (RECOVER) and 874735 (VEO).

Published
2021
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45. Impact of mass testing during an epidemic rebound of SARS-CoV-2: a modelling study using the example of France

Author

Cécile Tran Kiem, Vittoria Colizza, Yazdan Yazdanpanah, Arnaud Fontanet, Bruno Lina, Paolo Bosetti, Simon Cauchemez, Modélisation mathématique des maladies infectieuses - Mathematical modelling of Infectious Diseases, Institut Pasteur [Paris] (IP)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Collège Doctoral, Sorbonne Université (SU), Infection, Anti-microbiens, Modélisation, Evolution (IAME (UMR_S_1137 / U1137)), Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-Université Sorbonne Paris Nord, Epidémiologie des Maladies Emergentes - Emerging Diseases Epidemiology, Pasteur-Cnam Risques infectieux et émergents (PACRI), Institut Pasteur [Paris] (IP)-Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers [CNAM] (CNAM), HESAM Université - Communauté d'universités et d'établissements Hautes écoles Sorbonne Arts et métiers université (HESAM)-HESAM Université - Communauté d'universités et d'établissements Hautes écoles Sorbonne Arts et métiers université (HESAM)-Institut Pasteur [Paris] (IP)-Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers [CNAM] (CNAM), HESAM Université - Communauté d'universités et d'établissements Hautes écoles Sorbonne Arts et métiers université (HESAM)-HESAM Université - Communauté d'universités et d'établissements Hautes écoles Sorbonne Arts et métiers université (HESAM), Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers [CNAM] (CNAM), HESAM Université - Communauté d'universités et d'établissements Hautes écoles Sorbonne Arts et métiers université (HESAM), Institut des Agents Infectieux [Lyon] (IAI), Hospices Civils de Lyon (HCL), Virology and human respiratory Pathologies - Virology and human respiratory Pathologies (VirPath), Centre International de Recherche en Infectiologie - UMR (CIRI), École normale supérieure - Lyon (ENS Lyon)-Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 (UCBL), Université de Lyon-Université de Lyon-Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École normale supérieure - Lyon (ENS Lyon)-Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 (UCBL), Université de Lyon-Université de Lyon-Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Institut Pierre Louis d'Epidémiologie et de Santé Publique (iPLESP), Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM)-Sorbonne Université (SU), We acknowledge financial support from the Investissement d’Avenir program, the Laboratoire d’Excellence Integrative Biology of Emerging Infectious Diseases program (grant ANR-10-LABX-62-IBEID), Santé Publique France, the INCEPTION project (PIA/ANR-16-CONV-0005) and the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grants 101003589 (RECOVER) and 874735 (VEO), AXA., ANR-10-LABX-0062,IBEID,Integrative Biology of Emerging Infectious Diseases(2010), ANR-16-CONV-0005,INCEPTION,Institut Convergences pour l'étude de l'Emergence des Pathologies au Travers des Individus et des populatiONs(2016), European Project: 101003589, H2020-SC1-PHE-CORONAVIRUS-2020,RECOVER(2020), European Project: 874735,H2020-SC1-2019-Single-Stage-RTD,VEO(2020), Limouzin, Cécile, Integrative Biology of Emerging Infectious Diseases - - IBEID2010 - ANR-10-LABX-0062 - LABX - VALID, Institut Convergences pour l'étude de l'Emergence des Pathologies au Travers des Individus et des populatiONs - - INCEPTION2016 - ANR-16-CONV-0005 - CONV - VALID, Rapid European COVID-19 Emergency Response research - RECOVER - - H2020-SC1-PHE-CORONAVIRUS-20202020-02-14 - 2022-02-13 - 101003589 - VALID, Versatile Emerging infectious disease Observatory - VEO - - H2020-SC1-2019-Single-Stage-RTD2020-01-01 - 2024-12-31 - 874735 - VALID, Centre International de Recherche en Infectiologie (CIRI), École normale supérieure de Lyon (ENS de Lyon)-Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 (UCBL), Université de Lyon-Université de Lyon-Université Jean Monnet - Saint-Étienne (UJM)-Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École normale supérieure de Lyon (ENS de Lyon)-Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 (UCBL), Université de Lyon-Université de Lyon-Université Jean Monnet - Saint-Étienne (UJM)-Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Institut Pasteur [Paris]-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Collège doctoral [Sorbonne universités], Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM)-Université de Paris (UP)-Université Sorbonne Paris Nord, Institut Pasteur [Paris]-Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers [CNAM] (CNAM)-Institut Pasteur [Paris]-Conservatoire National des Arts et Métiers [CNAM] (CNAM), Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM)-École normale supérieure - Lyon (ENS Lyon)-Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 (UCBL), Université de Lyon-Université de Lyon-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM)-École normale supérieure - Lyon (ENS Lyon)-Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 (UCBL), Université de Lyon-Université de Lyon-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Sorbonne Université (SU)-Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM), and European Project: 874735,VEO

Subjects
2019-20 coronavirus outbreak, medicine.medical_specialty, Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), Epidemiology, Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), 030204 cardiovascular system & hematology, epidemic, Very frequent, 03 medical and health sciences, 0302 clinical medicine, COVID-19 Testing, [MATH.MATH-ST]Mathematics [math]/Statistics [math.ST], Virology, MESH: COVID-19, Medicine, Humans, Mass Screening, MESH: Mass Screening, 030212 general & internal medicine, mass testing, MESH: Models, Theoretical, Intensive care medicine, Epidemics, [MATH.MATH-ST] Mathematics [math]/Statistics [math.ST], MESH: Epidemics, Mass screening, MESH: Humans, business.industry, SARS-CoV-2, MESH: COVID-19 Testing, Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health, COVID-19, Models, Theoretical, 3. Good health, MESH: France, France, Prevention control, business, Rapid Communication
Abstract

International audience; We used a mathematical model to evaluate the impact of mass testing in the control of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Under optimistic assumptions, one round of mass testing may reduce daily infections by up to 20–30%. Consequently, very frequent testing would be required to control a quickly growing epidemic if other control measures were to be relaxed. Mass testing is most relevant when epidemic growth remains limited through a combination of interventions.

Published
2021
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46. Lockdown impact on age-specific contact patterns and behaviours, France, April 2020

Author

Mathieu Moslonka-Lefebvre, Pierre-Yves Boëlle, Henrik Salje, Noémie Courtejoie, Bich-Tram Huynh, Paolo Bosetti, Marie Sanchez, Didier Guillemot, Jérôme Accardo, Catherine Eisenhauer, Armiya Youssouf Abdou, Lulla Opatowski, Guillaume Béraud, Simon Cauchemez, Modélisation mathématique des maladies infectieuses - Mathematical modelling of Infectious Diseases, Institut Pasteur [Paris] (IP)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité), Université Paris Cité (UPCité), Epidémiologie et modélisation de la résistance aux antimicrobiens - Epidemiology and modelling of bacterial escape to antimicrobials (EMAE), Institut Pasteur [Paris] (IP)-Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM), Centre de recherche en épidémiologie et santé des populations (CESP), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Assistance publique - Hôpitaux de Paris (AP-HP) (AP-HP)-Hôpital Paul Brousse-Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM)-Université Paris-Saclay, Data Management (Plate-forme) - Data Management Core Facility (Platform), Institut Pasteur [Paris] (IP)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité), Direction de la recherche, des études, de l’évaluation et des statistiques [Paris] (DREES), Ministère des Solidarités et de la Santé [Paris, France], Institut national de la statistique et des études économiques (INSEE), University of Cambridge [UK] (CAM), DataCovid, Institut Pierre Louis d'Epidémiologie et de Santé Publique (iPLESP), Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM)-Sorbonne Université (SU), Centre hospitalier universitaire de Poitiers (CHU Poitiers), We thank Frederic Gouin, the data protection officer, Nathalie Joly, clinical core at the Institut Pasteur for their advice and all study participants., Institut Pasteur [Paris]-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Université de Paris (UP), Institut Pasteur [Paris]-Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM), Institut Pasteur [Paris], Sorbonne Université (SU)-Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM), and Bich-Tram, Huynh

Subjects
Hand washing, medicine.medical_specialty, Younger age, [SDV]Life Sciences [q-bio], Population, modelling, 03 medical and health sciences, 0302 clinical medicine, Virology, Health care, Epidemiology, medicine, Humans, 030212 general & internal medicine, education, 030304 developmental biology, public health policy, 0303 health sciences, education.field_of_study, business.industry, SARS-CoV-2, Research, Critical factors, Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health, Age Factors, COVID-19, Age specific, [SDV] Life Sciences [q-bio], Risk perception, Europe, Communicable Disease Control, RNA, Viral, epidemiology, France, business, Demography
Abstract

Background Many countries implemented national lockdowns to contain the rapid spread of SARS-CoV-2 and avoid overburdening healthcare capacity. Aim We aimed to quantify how the French lockdown impacted population mixing, contact patterns and behaviours. Methods We conducted an online survey using convenience sampling and collected information from participants aged 18 years and older between 10 April and 28 April 2020. Result Among the 42,036 survey participants, 72% normally worked outside their home, and of these, 68% changed to telework during lockdown and 17% reported being unemployed during lockdown. A decrease in public transport use was reported from 37% to 2%. Participants reported increased frequency of hand washing and changes in greeting behaviour. Wearing masks in public was generally limited. A total of 138,934 contacts were reported, with an average of 3.3 contacts per individual per day; 1.7 in the participants aged 65 years and older compared with 3.6 for younger age groups. This represented a 70% reduction compared with previous surveys, consistent with SARS-CoV2 transmission reduction measured during the lockdown. For those who maintained a professional activity outside home, the frequency of contacts at work dropped by 79%. Conclusion The lockdown affected the population's behaviour, work, risk perception and contact patterns. The frequency and heterogeneity of contacts, both of which are critical factors in determining how viruses spread, were affected. Such surveys are essential to evaluate the impact of lockdowns more accurately and anticipate epidemic dynamics in these conditions.

Published
2021
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47. Human identification and tracking using ultra-wideband-vision data fusion in unstructured environments

Author

Alessandro Luchetti, Andrea Carollo, Luca Santoro, Matteo Nardello, Davide Brunelli, Paolo Bosetti, and Mariolino De Cecco

Subjects
sensor fusion, 3D vision system, Mechanical Engineering, Human-robot interaction, following system, ultra-wideband technology, Electrical and Electronic Engineering, Instrumentation
Abstract

Nowadays, the importance of working in changing and unstructured environments such as logistics warehouses through the cooperation between Automated Guided Vehicles (AGV) and the operator is increasingly demanded. The challenge addressed in this article aims to solve two crucial functions of autonomy: operator identification, and tracking. These tasks are necessary to enable an AGV to follow the selected operator along his path. This paper presents an innovative, accurate, robust, autonomous, and low-cost operator real-time tracking system, leveraging the inherent complementarity of the uncertainty regions (2D ellipses) between ultra-wideband (UWB) transceivers and cameras. The test campaign shows how the UWB system has higher uncertainty in the angular direction. In contrast, in the case of the vision system, the uncertainty is predominant along the radial coordinate. Due to the nature of the data, a sensor fusion demonstrates improvement in the accuracy and goodness of the final tracking.

Published
2021

48. Stepping over Obstacles with Augmented Reality based on Visual Exproprioception

Author

Isidro Butaslac, Mariolino De Cecco, Paolo Bosetti, Masayuki Kanbara, Hirokazu Kato, Yuichiro Fujimoto, Alessandro Luchetti, and Edoardo Parolin

Subjects
Visual perception, Augmented Reality, Point (typography), Relation (database), Computer science, Interface (computing), Rehabilitation, Obstacle crossing, Exproprioception, Task (project management), Gait (human), Human–computer interaction, HoloLens, Augmented reality, Sensory cue
Abstract

The purpose of this study is to analyze the different kinds of ex- proprioceptive visual cues on an Augmented Reality (AR) system during gait exercise, on top of understanding which cues provide the best visualizations in stepping over obstacles. The main problem for users is to understand the position of virtual objects relative to themselves. Since visual exproprioception provides information about the body position in relation to the environment, it has the possibility to yield positive effects with regards to position control and gait biomechanics in the AR system. This research was born as part of the collaboration with the staff of Takanohara Central Hospital in Japan. Twenty-seven individuals were invited to take part in the user study to test three visual interfaces. The task of the mentioned user study involves making the subjects cross and avoid virtual obstacles of different heights that come from different directions. The AR application was implemented in the experiment by using the Head-Mounted Display (HMD) Microsoft HoloLens. Data obtained from the experiment revealed that the interface projected in front of the user from a third-person point of view resulted to improvements in terms of posture, visual stimuli, and safety., 2020 IEEE International Symposium on Mixed and Augmented Reality Adjunct (ISMAR-Adjunct),9-13 Nov. 2020 ,Recife, Brazil

Published
2020

49. Impact of mass testing during an epidemic rebound of SARS-CoV-2: A modelling study

Author

Yazdan Yazdanpanah, Simon Cauchemez, Vittoria Colizza, Cécile Tran Kiem, Bruno Lina, Paolo Bosetti, and Arnaud Fontanet

Subjects
2019-20 coronavirus outbreak, Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), Silver bullet, Risk analysis (engineering), Computer science, Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)
Abstract

We used a mathematical model to evaluate the impact of mass testing in the control of SARS-CoV-2. Under optimistic assumptions, we find that one round of mass testing may reduce daily infections by up to 20-30%. As a consequence, very frequent testing would be required to control a quickly growing epidemic if other control measures were to be relaxed. Mass testing is most relevant when epidemic growth remains limited, thanks to a combination of interventions.

Published
2020
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50. Early chains of transmission of COVID-19 in France

Author

Alexandra Mailles, Paolo Bosetti, Henrik Salje, Catherine Eisenhauer, Juliette Paireau, Franck de Laval, Valerie Ponties, François Delon, and Simon Cauchemez

Subjects
medicine.medical_specialty, business.industry, Attack rate, Odds ratio, law.invention, Transmission (mechanics), law, Epidemiology, medicine, media_common.cataloged_instance, European union, business, Index case, Contact tracing, Demography, media_common, Serial interval
Abstract

IntroductionSARS-CoV-2, which causes COVID-19, has spread rapidly across the world. A dedicated surveillance system was implemented in France in January 2020 to improve early detection of cases and their contacts and limit secondary transmission. Our objective was to use contact-tracing data collected during this initial phase of the epidemic to better characterize SARS-CoV-2 transmission.MethodsWe analysed data collected during contact tracing and retrospective epidemiological investigations in France from 24 January to 30 March 2020. We assessed the secondary clinical attack rate and characterized the risk of a contact becoming a case. We described chains of transmission and estimated key parameters of spread.ResultsOver the study period, 6,082 contacts of 735 confirmed cases were traced. The overall secondary clinical attack rate was 4.1% (95%CI 3.6-4.6) and increased with age of the index case and of the contact. Family contacts were at higher risk of becoming cases (adjusted odds ratio 2.1 (95%CI 1.4-3.0)) while nosocomial contacts were at lower risk (adjusted odds ratio 0.3 (95%CI 0.1-0.7)), compared to coworkers/friends. We identified 328 infector/infectee pairs, 49% of which were family members. The distribution of secondary cases was highly over-dispersed with 80% of secondary cases being caused by 10% of cases. The mean serial interval was 5.1 days (interquartile range 2-8 days) in contact-tracing pairs where late transmission events may be censored, and 6.8 (3-8) days in pairs investigated retrospectively.ConclusionThis study contributes to improving our knowledge of SARS-CoV-2 transmission, such as the importance of superspreading events. Contact-tracing data are challenging to collect but are key to better understand emerging pathogens.Funding statementThis work was supported by the LabEx “Integrative Biology of Emerging Infectious Diseases (IBEID)” (Grant Number ANR-10-LABX-62-IBEID), Santé Publique France, the INCEPTION project (PIA/ANR-16-CONV-0005), and the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under grants 101003589 (RECOVER) and 874735 (VEO).

Published
2020
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