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Epidemiology and Public Health have increasingly relied on structured and unstructured data, collected inside and outside of typical health systems, to study, identify, and mitigate diseases at the population level. Focusing on infectious disease, we review how Digital Epidemiology (DE) was at the beginning of 2020 and how it was changed by the COVID-19 pandemic, in both nature and breadth. We argue that DE will become a progressively useful tool as long as its potential is recognized and its risks are minimized. Therefore, we expand on the current views and present a new definition of DE that, by highlighting the statistical nature of the datasets, helps in identifying possible biases. We offer some recommendations to reduce inequity and threats to privacy and argue in favour of complex multidisciplinary approaches to tackling infectious diseases., Comment: 18 pages, 2 figures and a supplement material file

At the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, fears grew that making vaccination a political (instead of public health) issue may impact the efficacy of this life-saving intervention, spurring the spread of vaccine-hesitant content. In this study, we examine whether there is a relationship between the political interest of social media users and their exposure to vaccine-hesitant content on Twitter. We focus on 17 European countries using a multilingual, longitudinal dataset of tweets spanning the period before COVID, up to the vaccine roll-out. We find that, in most countries, users' endorsement of vaccine-hesitant content is the highest in the early months of the pandemic, around the time of greatest scientific uncertainty. Further, users who follow politicians from right-wing parties, and those associated with authoritarian or anti-EU stances are more likely to endorse vaccine-hesitant content, whereas those following left-wing politicians, more pro-EU or liberal parties, are less likely. Somewhat surprisingly, politicians did not play an outsized role in the vaccine debates of their countries, receiving a similar number of retweets as other similarly popular users. This systematic, multi-country, longitudinal investigation of the connection of politics with vaccine hesitancy has important implications for public health policy and communication., Comment: Published version in Sci Rep

Highly skilled professionals' forced migration from Ukraine was triggered by the conflict in Ukraine in 2014 and amplified by the Russian invasion in 2022. Here, we utilize LinkedIn estimates and official refugee data from the World Bank and the United Nations Refugee Agency, to understand which are the main pull factors that drive the decision-making process of the host country. We identify an ongoing and escalating exodus of educated individuals, largely drawn to Poland and Germany, and underscore the crucial role of pre-existing networks in shaping these migration flows. Key findings include a strong correlation between LinkedIn's estimates of highly educated Ukrainian displaced people and official UN refugee statistics, pointing to the significance of prior relationships with Ukraine in determining migration destinations. We train a series of multilinear regression models and the SHAP method revealing that the existence of a support network is the most critical factor in choosing a destination country, while distance is less important. Our main findings show that the migration patterns of Ukraine's highly skilled workforce, and their impact on both the origin and host countries, are largely influenced by preexisting networks and communities. This insight can inform strategies to tackle the economic challenges posed by this loss of talent and maximize the benefits of such migration for both Ukraine and the receiving nations., Comment: 10 pages

Women remain underrepresented in the labour market. Although significant advancements are being made to increase female participation in the workforce, the gender gap is still far from being bridged. We contribute to the growing literature on gender inequalities in the labour market, evaluating the potential of the LinkedIn estimates to monitor the evolution of the gender gaps sustainably, complementing the official data sources. In particular, assessing the labour market patterns at a subnational level in Italy. Our findings show that the LinkedIn estimates accurately capture the gender disparities in Italy regarding sociodemographic attributes such as gender, age, geographic location, seniority, and industry category. At the same time, we assess data biases such as the digitalisation gap, which impacts the representativity of the workforce in an imbalanced manner, confirming that women are under-represented in Southern Italy. Additionally to confirming the gender disparities to the official census, LinkedIn estimates are a valuable tool to provide dynamic insights; we showed an immigration flow of highly skilled women, predominantly from the South. Digital surveillance of gender inequalities with detailed and timely data is particularly significant to enable policymakers to tailor impactful campaigns., Comment: 10 pages

Anti-vaccination views pervade online social media, fueling distrust in scientific expertise and increasing vaccine-hesitant individuals. While previous studies focused on specific countries, the COVID-19 pandemic brought the vaccination discourse worldwide, underpinning the need to tackle low-credible information flows on a global scale to design effective countermeasures. Here, we leverage 316 million vaccine-related Twitter messages in 18 languages, from October 2019 to March 2021, to quantify misinformation flows between users exposed to anti-vaccination (no-vax) content. We find that, during the pandemic, no-vax communities became more central in the country-specific debates and their cross-border connections strengthened, revealing a global Twitter anti-vaccination network. U.S. users are central in this network, while Russian users also become net exporters of misinformation during vaccination roll-out. Interestingly, we find that Twitter's content moderation efforts, and in particular the suspension of users following the January 6th U.S. Capitol attack, had a worldwide impact in reducing misinformation spread about vaccines. These findings may help public health institutions and social media platforms to mitigate the spread of health-related, low-credible information by revealing vulnerable online communities.

Twitter is one of the most popular social media platforms in the country, but pre-pandemic vaccination debate has been shown to be polarized and siloed into echo chambers. It is thus imperative to understand the nature of this discourse, with a specific focus on the vaccination hesitant individuals, whose healthcare decisions may affect their communities and the country at large. In this study we ask, how has the Italian discussion around vaccination changed during the COVID-19 pandemic, and have the unprecedented events of 2020-2021 been able to break the echo chamber around this topic? We use a Twitter dataset spanning September 2019 - November 2021 to examine the state of polarization around vaccination. We propose a hierarchical clustering approach to find the largest communities in the endorsement networks of different time periods, and manually illustrate that it produces communities of users sharing a stance. Examining the structure of these networks, as well as textual content of their interactions, we find the stark division between supporters and hesitant individuals to continue throughout the vaccination campaign. However, we find an increasing commonality in the topical focus of the vaccine supporters and vaccine hesitant, pointing to a possible common set of facts the two sides may agree on. Still, we discover a series of concerns voiced by the hesitant community, ranging from unfounded conspiracies (microchips in vaccines) to public health policy discussion (vaccine passport limitations). We recommend an ongoing surveillance of this debate, especially to uncover concerns around vaccination before the public health decisions and official messaging are made public., Comment: International AAAI Conference on Web and Social Media (ICWSM)

In this work we study how pervasive is the presence of disinformation in the Italian debate around immigration on Twitter and the role of automated accounts in the diffusion of such content. By characterising the Twitter users with an \textit{Untrustworthiness} score, that tells us how frequently they engage with disinformation content, we are able to see that such bad information consumption habits are not equally distributed across the users; adopting a network analysis approach, we can identify communities characterised by a very high presence of users that frequently share content from unreliable news sources. Within this context, social bots tend to inject in the network more malicious content, that often remains confined in a limited number of clusters; instead, they target reliable content in order to diversify their reach. The evidence we gather suggests that, at least in this particular case study, there is a strong interplay between social bots and users engaging with unreliable content, influencing the diffusion of the latter across the network.

This paper describes in details the design and development of a novel annotation framework and of annotated resources for Internal Displacement, as the outcome of a collaboration with the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre, aimed at improving the accuracy of their monitoring platform IDETECT. The schema includes multi-faceted description of the events, including cause, quantity of people displaced, location and date. Higher-order facets aimed at improving the information extraction, such as document relevance and type, are proposed. We also report a case study of machine learning application to the document classification tasks. Finally, we discuss the importance of standardized schema in dataset benchmark development and its impact on the development of reliable disaster monitoring infrastructure.

Monitoring advertising around controversial issues is an important step in ensuring accountability and transparency of political processes. To that end, we use the Facebook Ads Library to collect 2312 migration-related advertising campaigns in Italy over one year. Our pro- and anti-immigration classifier (F1=0.85) reveals a partisan divide among the major Italian political parties, with anti-immigration ads accounting for nearly 15M impressions. Although composing 47.6% of all migration-related ads, anti-immigration ones receive 65.2% of impressions. We estimate that about two thirds of all captured campaigns use some kind of demographic targeting by location, gender, or age. We find sharp divides by age and gender: for instance, anti-immigration ads from major parties are 17% more likely to be seen by a male user than a female. Unlike pro-migration parties, we find that anti-immigration ones reach a similar demographic to their own voters. However their audience change with topic: an ad from anti-immigration parties is 24% more likely to be seen by a male user when the ad speaks about migration, than if it does not. Furthermore, the viewership of such campaigns tends to follow the volume of mainstream news around immigration, supporting the theory that political advertisers try to "ride the wave" of current news. We conclude with policy implications for political communication: since the Facebook Ads Library does not allow to distinguish between advertisers intentions and algorithmic targeting, we argue that more details should be shared by platforms regarding the targeting configuration of socio-political campaigns., Comment: Published at CHI21

Measuring close proximity interactions between individuals can provide key information on social contacts in human communities. With the present study, we report the quantitative assessment of contact patterns in a village in rural Malawi, based on proximity sensors technology that allows for high-resolution measurements of social contacts. The system provided information on community structure of the village, on social relationships and social assortment between individuals, and on daily contacts activity within the village. Our findings revealed that the social network presented communities that were highly correlated with household membership, thus confirming the importance of family ties within the village. Contacts within households occur mainly between adults and children, and adults and adolescents. This result suggests that the principal role of adults within the family is the care for the youngest. Most of the inter-household interactions occurred among caregivers and among adolescents. We studied the tendency of participants to interact with individuals with whom they shared similar attributes (i.e., assortativity). Age and gender assortativity were observed in inter-household network, showing that individuals not belonging to the same family group prefer to interact with people with whom they share similar age and gender. Age disassortativity is observed in intra-household networks. Family members congregate in the early morning, during lunch time and dinner time. In contrast, individuals not belonging to the same household displayed a growing contact activity from the morning, reaching a maximum in the afternoon. The data collection infrastructure used in this study seems to be very effective to capture the dynamics of contacts by collecting high resolution temporal data and to give access to the level of information needed to understand the social context of the village.

Link prediction algorithms can help to understand the structure and dynamics of complex systems, to reconstruct networks from incomplete data sets and to forecast future interactions in evolving networks. Available algorithms based on similarity between nodes are bounded by the limited amount of links present in these networks. In this work, we reduce this latter intrinsic limitation and show that different kind of relational data can be exploited to improve the prediction of new links. To this aim, we propose a novel link prediction algorithm by generalizing the Adamic-Adar method to multiplex networks composed by an arbitrary number of layers, that encode diverse forms of interactions. We show that the new metric outperforms the classical single-layered Adamic-Adar score and other state-of-the-art methods, across several social, biological and technological systems. As a byproduct, the coefficients that maximize the Multiplex Adamic-Adar metric indicate how the information structured in a multiplex network can be optimized for the link prediction task, revealing which layers are redundant. Interestingly, this effect can be asymmetric with respect to predictions in different layers. Our work paves the way for a deeper understanding of the role of different relational data in predicting new interactions and provides a new algorithm for link prediction in multiplex networks that can be applied to a plethora of systems., Comment: arXiv admin note: substantial text overlap with arXiv:2005.04432

We consider a population that experienced a first wave of infections, interrupted by strong, top-down, governmental restrictions and did not develop a significant immunity to prevent a second wave (i.e. resurgence). As restrictions are lifted, individuals adapt their social behaviour to minimize the risk of infection. We consider two scenarios. In the first, individuals reduce their overall social activity towards the rest of the population. In the second scenario, they maintain a normal social activity within a small community of peers (i.e., social bubble) while reducing social interactions with the rest of the population. In both cases, we consider possible correlations between social activity and behaviour change, reflecting for example the social dimension of certain occupations. We model these scenarios considering a Susceptible-Infected-Recovered epidemic model unfolding on activity-driven networks. Extensive analytical and numerical results show that i) a minority of very active individuals not changing behaviour may nullify the efforts of the large majority of the population, and ii) imperfect social bubbles of normal social activity may be less effective than an overall reduction of social interactions.

Youth unemployment rates are still in alerting levels for many countries, among which Italy. Direct consequences include poverty, social exclusion, and criminal behaviours, while negative impact on the future employability and wage cannot be obscured. In this study, we employ survey data together with social media data, and in particular likes on Facebook Pages, to analyse personality, moral values, but also cultural elements of the young unemployed population in Italy. Our findings show that there are small but significant differences in personality and moral values, with the unemployed males to be less agreeable while females more open to new experiences. At the same time, unemployed have a more collectivist point of view, valuing more in-group loyalty, authority, and purity foundations. Interestingly, topic modelling analysis did not reveal major differences in interests and cultural elements of the unemployed. Utilisation patterns emerged though; the employed seem to use Facebook to connect with local activities, while the unemployed use it mostly as for entertainment purposes and as a source of news, making them susceptible to mis/disinformation. We believe these findings can help policymakers get a deeper understanding of this population and initiatives that improve both the hard and the soft skills of this fragile population., Comment: 8 pages. Published in SocInfo 2020 Proceedings. Title update

Targeted online advertising is on the forefront of political communication, allowing hyper-local advertising campaigns around elections and issues. In this study, we employ a new resource for political ad monitoring -- Facebook Ads Library -- to examine advertising concerning the issue of immigration in Italy. A crucial topic in Italian politics, it has recently been a focus of several populist movements, some of which have adopted social media as a powerful tool for voter engagement. Indeed, we find evidence of targeting by the parties both in terms of geography and demographics (age and gender). For instance, Five Star Movement reaches a younger audience when advertising about immigration, while other parties' ads have a more male audience when advertising on this issue. We also notice a marked rise in advertising volume around elections, as well as a shift to more general audience. Thus, we illustrate political advertising targeting that likely has an impact on public opinion on a topic involving potentially vulnerable populations, and urge the research community to include online advertising in the monitoring of public discourse.

The exposure and consumption of information during epidemic outbreaks may alter risk perception, trigger behavioural changes, and ultimately affect the evolution of the disease. It is thus of the uttermost importance to map information dissemination by mainstream media outlets and public response. However, our understanding of this exposure-response dynamic during COVID-19 pandemic is still limited. In this paper, we provide a characterization of media coverage and online collective attention to COVID-19 pandemic in four countries: Italy, United Kingdom, United States, and Canada. For this purpose, we collect an heterogeneous dataset including 227,768 online news articles and 13,448 Youtube videos published by mainstream media, 107,898 users posts and 3,829,309 comments on the social media platform Reddit, and 278,456,892 views to COVID-19 related Wikipedia pages. Our results show that public attention, quantified as users activity on Reddit and active searches on Wikipedia pages, is mainly driven by media coverage and declines rapidly, while news exposure and COVID-19 incidence remain high. Furthermore, by using an unsupervised, dynamical topic modeling approach, we show that while the attention dedicated to different topics by media and online users are in good accordance, interesting deviations emerge in their temporal patterns. Overall, our findings offer an additional key to interpret public perception/response to the current global health emergency and raise questions about the effects of attention saturation on collective awareness, risk perception and thus on tendencies towards behavioural changes.

Link prediction algorithms can help to understand the structure and dynamics of scientific collaborations and the evolution of Science. However, available algorithms based on similarity between nodes of collaboration networks are bounded by the limited amount of links present in these networks. In this work, we reduce the latter intrinsic limitation by generalizing the Adamic-Adar method to multiplex networks composed by an arbitrary number of layers, that encode diverse forms of scientific interactions. We show that the new metric outperforms other single-layered, similarity-based scores and that scientific credit, represented by citations, and common interests, measured by the usage of common keywords, can be predictive of new collaborations. Our work paves the way for a deeper understanding of the dynamics driving scientific collaborations, and provides a new algorithm for link prediction in multiplex networks that can be applied to a plethora of systems.

The reappearance of measles in the US and Europe, a disease considered eliminated in early 2000s, has been accompanied by a growing debate on the merits of vaccination on social media. In this study we examine the extent to which the vaccination debate on Twitter is conductive to potential outreach to the vaccination hesitant. We focus on Italy, one of the countries most affected by the latest measles outbreaks. We discover that the vaccination skeptics, as well as the advocates, reside in their own distinct "echo chambers". The structure of these communities differs as well, with skeptics arranged in a tightly connected cluster, and advocates organizing themselves around few authoritative hubs. At the center of these echo chambers we find the ardent supporters, for which we build highly accurate network- and content-based classifiers (attaining 95% cross-validated accuracy). Insights of this study provide several avenues for potential future interventions, including network-guided targeting, accounting for the political context, and monitoring of alternative sources of information.

In this work, we aim to determine the main factors driving behavioral change during the seasonal flu. To this end, we analyze a unique dataset comprised of 599 surveys completed by 434 Italian users of Influweb, a Web platform for participatory surveillance, during the 2017-18 and 2018-19 seasons. The data provide socio-demographic information, level of concerns about the flu, past experience with illnesses, and the type of behavioral changes implemented by each participant. We describe each response with a set of features and divide them in three target categories. These describe those that report i) no (26 %), ii) only moderately (36 %), iii) significant (38 %) changes in behaviors. In these settings, we adopt machine learning algorithms to investigate the extent to which target variables can be predicted by looking only at the set of features. Notably, $66\%$ of the samples in the category describing more significant changes in behaviors are correctly classified through Gradient Boosted Trees. Furthermore, we investigate the importance of each feature in the classification task and uncover complex relationships between individuals' characteristics and their attitude towards behavioral change. We find that intensity, recency of past illnesses, perceived susceptibility to and perceived severity of an infection are the most significant features in the classification task. Interestingly, the last two match the theoretical constructs suggested by the Health-Belief Model. Overall, the research contributes to the small set of empirical studies devoted to the data-driven characterization of behavioral changes induced by infectious diseases.

Real estate appraisal is a complex and important task, that can be made more precise and faster with the help of automated valuation tools. Usually the value of some property is determined by taking into account both structural and geographical characteristics. However, while geographical information is easily found, obtaining significant structural information requires the intervention of a real estate expert, a professional appraiser. In this paper we propose a Web data acquisition methodology, and a Machine Learning model, that can be used to automatically evaluate real estate properties. This method uses data from previous appraisal documents, from the advertised prices of similar properties found via Web crawling, and from open data describing the characteristics of a corresponding geographical area. We describe a case study, applicable to the whole Italian territory, and initially trained on a data set of individual homes located in the city of Turin, and analyze prediction and practical applicability., Comment: 14 pages, 7 figures

The always increasing mobile connectivity affects every aspect of our daily lives, including how and when we keep ourselves informed and consult news media. By studying a DPI (deep packet inspection) dataset, provided by one of the major Chilean telecommunication companies, we investigate how different cohorts of the population of Santiago De Chile consume news media content through their smartphones. We find that some socio-demographic attributes are highly associated to specific news media consumption patterns. In particular, education and age play a significant role in shaping the consumers behaviour even in the digital context, in agreement with a large body of literature on off-line media distribution channels.

We develop a multiple compartment Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model to analyze the spread of several infectious diseases through different geographic areas. Additionally, we propose a data-quality sensitive optimization framework for fitting this model to observed data. We fit the model to the temporal profile of the number of people infected by one of six influenza strains in Europe over $7$ influenza seasons. In addition to describing the temporal and spatial spread of influenza, the model provides an estimate of the inter-country and intra-country infection and recovery rates of each strain and in each season. We find that disease parameters remain relatively stable, with a correlation greater than $0.5$ over seasons and stains. Clustering of influenza strains by the inferred disease parameters is consistent with genome sub-types. Surprisingly, our analysis suggests that inter-country human mobility plays a negligible role in the spread of influenza in Europe. Finally, we show that the model allows the estimation of disease load in countries with poor or none existent data from the disease load in adjacent countries. Our findings reveal information on the spreading mechanism of influenza and on disease parameters. These can be used to assist in disease surveillance and in control of influenza as well as of other infectious pathogens in a heterogenic environment.

The unfolding of pandemic influenza A(H1N1) for Fall 2009 in the Northern Hemisphere is still uncertain. Plans for vaccination campaigns and vaccine trials are underway, with the first batches expected to be available early October. Several studies point to the possibility of an anticipated pandemic peak that could undermine the effectiveness of vaccination strategies. Here we use a structured global epidemic and mobility metapopulation model to assess the effectiveness of massive vaccination campaigns for the Fall/Winter 2009. Mitigation effects are explored depending on the interplay between the predicted pandemic evolution and the expected delivery of vaccines. The model is calibrated using recent estimates on the transmissibility of the new A(H1N1) influenza. Results show that if additional intervention strategies were not used to delay the time of pandemic peak, vaccination may not be able to considerably reduce the cumulative number of cases, even when the mass vaccination campaign is started as early as mid-October. Prioritized vaccination would be crucial in slowing down the pandemic evolution and reducing its burden., Comment: Paper: 19 Pages, 3 Figures. Supplementary Information: 10 pages, 8 Tables

On 11 June the World Health Organization officially raised the phase of pandemic alert (with regard to the new H1N1 influenza strain) to level 6. We use a global structured metapopulation model integrating mobility and transportation data worldwide in order to estimate the transmission potential and the relevant model parameters we used the data on the chronology of the 2009 novel influenza A(H1N1). The method is based on the maximum likelihood analysis of the arrival time distribution generated by the model in 12 countries seeded by Mexico by using 1M computationally simulated epidemics. An extended chronology including 93 countries worldwide seeded before 18 June was used to ascertain the seasonality effects. We found the best estimate R0 = 1.75 (95% CI 1.64 to 1.88) for the basic reproductive number. Correlation analysis allows the selection of the most probable seasonal behavior based on the observed pattern, leading to the identification of plausible scenarios for the future unfolding of the pandemic and the estimate of pandemic activity peaks in the different hemispheres. We provide estimates for the number of hospitalizations and the attack rate for the next wave as well as an extensive sensitivity analysis on the disease parameter values. We also studied the effect of systematic therapeutic use of antiviral drugs on the epidemic timeline. The analysis shows the potential for an early epidemic peak occurring in October/November in the Northern hemisphere, likely before large-scale vaccination campaigns could be carried out. We suggest that the planning of additional mitigation policies such as systematic antiviral treatments might be the key to delay the activity peak inorder to restore the effectiveness of the vaccination programs., Comment: Paper: 29 Pages, 3 Figures and 5 Tables. Supplementary Information: 29 Pages, 5 Figures and 7 Tables. Print version: http://www.biomedcentral.com/1741-7015/7/45

The behavior of a bidisperse inelastic gas vertically shaken in a compartmentalized container is investigated using two different approaches: the first is a mean-field dynamical model, which treats the number of particles in the two compartments and the associated kinetic temperatures in a self-consistent fashion; the second is an event-driven numerical simulation. Both approaches reveal a non-stationary regime, which has no counterpart in the case of monodisperse granular gases. Specifically, when the mass difference between the two species exceeds a certain threshold the populations display a bistable behavior, with particles of each species switching back and forth between compartments. The reason for such an unexpected behavior is attributed to the interplay of kinetic energy non-equipartition due to inelasticity with the energy redistribution induced by collisions. The mean-field model and numerical simulation are found to agree qualitatively., Comment: 23 pages, 12 figures

We present results of a simulation study of inelastic hard-disks vibrated in a vertical container. An Event-Driven Molecular Dynamics method is developed for studying the onset of convection. Varying the relevant parameters (inelasticity, number of layers at rest, intensity of the gravity) we are able to obtain a qualitative agreement of our results with recent hydrodynamical predictions. Increasing the inelasticity, a first continuous transition from the absence of convection to one convective roll is observed, followed by a discontinuous transition to two convective rolls, with hysteretic behavior. At fixed inelasticity and increasing gravity, a transition from no convection to one roll can be evidenced. If the gravity is further increased, the roll is eventually suppressed. Increasing the number of monolayers the system eventually localizes mostly at the bottom of the box: in this case multiple convective rolls as well as surface waves appear. We analyze the density and temperature fields and study the existence of symmetry breaking in these fields in the direction perpendicular to the injection of energy. We also study a binary mixture of grains with different properties (inelasticity or diameters). The effect of changing the properties of one of the components is analyzed, together with density, temperature and temperature ratio fields. Finally, the presence of a low-fraction of quasi-elastic impurities is shown to determine a sharp transition between convective and non-convective steady states., Comment: 11 pages, 12 figures, accepted for publication on Physical Review E