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We investigate the impact of several critical events associated with the Russo Ukrainian war, started officially on 24 February 2022 with the Russian invasion of Ukraine, on ten European electricity markets, two natural gas markets (the European reference trading hub TTF and N.Y. NGNMX market) and how these markets interact to each other and with USDRUB exchange rate, a financial market. We analyze the reactions of these markets, manifested as breakpoints attributed to these critical events, and their interaction, by using a set of three tools that can shed light on different aspects of this complex situation. We combine the concepts of market efficiency, measured by quantifying the Efficient market hypothesis (EMH) via rolling Hurst exponent, with structural breakpoints occurred in the time series of gas, electricity and financial markets, the detection of which is possible by using a Bayesian ensemble approach, the Bayesian Estimator of Abrupt change, Seasonal change and Trend (BEAST), a powerful tool that can effectively detect structural breakpoints, trends, seasonalities and sudden abrupt changes in time series. The results show that the analyzed markets have exhibited different modes of reactions to the critical events, both in respect of number, nature, and time of occurrence (leading, lagging, concurrent with dates of critical events) of breakpoints as well as of the dynamic behavior of their trend components., Comment: 90 pages, 40 figures. arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:2205.09179 by other authors

Sequential directional importance sampling (SDIS) is an efficient adaptive simulation method for estimating failure probabilities. It expresses the failure probability as the product of a group of integrals that are easy to estimate, wherein the first one is estimated with Monte Carlo simulation (MCS), and all the subsequent ones are estimated with directional importance sampling. In this work, we propose an enhanced SDIS method for structural reliability analysis. We discuss the efficiency of MCS for estimating the first integral in standard SDIS and propose using Subset Simulation as an alternative method. Additionally, we propose a Kriging-based active learning algorithm tailored to identify multiple roots in certain important directions within a specificed search interval. The performance of the enhanced SDIS is demonstrated through various complex benchmark problems. The results show that the enhanced SDIS is a versatile reliability analysis method that can efficiently and robustly solve challenging reliability problems

Over the past few years, a plethora of advancements in Unmanned Areal Vehicle (UAV) technology has paved the way for UAV-based search and rescue operations with transformative impact to the outcome of critical life-saving missions. This paper dives into the challenging task of multiple castaway tracking using an autonomous UAV agent. Leveraging on the computing power of the modern embedded devices, we propose a Model Predictive Control (MPC) framework for tracking multiple castaways assumed to drift afloat in the aftermath of a maritime accident. We consider a stationary radar sensor that is responsible for signaling the search mission by providing noisy measurements of each castaway's initial state. The UAV agent aims at detecting and tracking the moving targets with its equipped onboard camera sensor that has limited sensing range. In this work, we also experimentally determine the probability of target detection from real-world data by training and evaluating various Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs). Extensive qualitative and quantitative evaluations demonstrate the performance of the proposed approach.

Cooperative control of multi-UAV systems has attracted substantial research attention due to its significance in various application sectors such as emergency response, search and rescue missions, and critical infrastructure inspection. This paper proposes a distributed control algorithm to generate collision-free trajectories that drive the multi-UAV system to completely inspect a set of 3D points on the surface of an object of interest. The objective of the UAVs is to cooperatively inspect the object of interest in the minimum amount of time. Extensive numerical simulations for a team of quadrotor UAVs inspecting a real 3D structure illustrate the validity and effectiveness of the proposed approach.

Current research on robust trajectory planning for autonomous agents aims to mitigate uncertainties arising from disturbances and modeling errors while ensuring guaranteed safety. Existing methods primarily utilize stochastic optimal control techniques with chance constraints to maintain a minimum distance among agents with a guaranteed probability. However, these approaches face challenges, such as the use of simplifying assumptions that result in linear system models or Gaussian disturbances, which limit their practicality in complex realistic scenarios. To address these limitations, this work introduces a novel probabilistically robust distributed controller enabling autonomous agents to plan safe trajectories, even under non-Gaussian uncertainty and nonlinear systems. Leveraging exact uncertainty propagation techniques based on mixed-trigonometric-polynomial moment propagation, this method transforms non-Gaussian chance constraints into deterministic ones, seamlessly integrating them into a distributed model predictive control framework solvable with standard optimization tools. Simulation results demonstrate the effectiveness of this technique, highlighting its ability to consistently handle various types of uncertainty, ensuring robust and accurate path planning in complex scenarios., Comment: 18th International Conference on Control, Automation, Robotics and Vision (ICARCV 2024)

We introduce Label-Combination Prototypical Networks (LC-Protonets) to address the problem of multi-label few-shot classification, where a model must generalize to new classes based on only a few available examples. Extending Prototypical Networks, LC-Protonets generate one prototype per label combination, derived from the power set of labels present in the limited training items, rather than one prototype per label. Our method is applied to automatic audio tagging across diverse music datasets, covering various cultures and including both modern and traditional music, and is evaluated against existing approaches in the literature. The results demonstrate a significant performance improvement in almost all domains and training setups when using LC-Protonets for multi-label classification. In addition to training a few-shot learning model from scratch, we explore the use of a pre-trained model, obtained via supervised learning, to embed items in the feature space. Fine-tuning improves the generalization ability of all methods, yet LC-Protonets achieve high-level performance even without fine-tuning, in contrast to the comparative approaches. We finally analyze the scalability of the proposed method, providing detailed quantitative metrics from our experiments. The implementation and experimental setup are made publicly available, offering a benchmark for future research.

Bayesian analysis enables combining prior knowledge with measurement data to learn model parameters. Commonly, one resorts to computing the maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimate, when only a point estimate of the parameters is of interest. We apply MAP estimation in the context of structural dynamic models, where the system response can be described by the frequency response function. To alleviate high computational demands from repeated expensive model calls, we utilize a rational polynomial chaos expansion (RPCE) surrogate model that expresses the system frequency response as a rational of two polynomials with complex coefficients. We propose an extension to an existing sparse Bayesian learning approach for RPCE based on Laplace's approximation for the posterior distribution of the denominator coefficients. Furthermore, we introduce a Bayesian optimization approach, which allows to adaptively enrich the experimental design throughout the optimization process of MAP estimation. Thereby, we utilize the expected improvement acquisition function as a means to identify sample points in the input space that are possibly associated with large objective function values. The acquisition function is estimated through Monte Carlo sampling based on the posterior distribution of the expansion coefficients identified in the sparse Bayesian learning process. By combining the sparsity-inducing learning procedure with the sequential experimental design, we effectively reduce the number of model evaluations in the MAP estimation problem. We demonstrate the applicability of the presented methods on the parameter updating problem of an algebraic two-degree-of-freedom system and the finite element model of a cross-laminated timber plate.

We introduce the novel class $(E_\alpha)_{\alpha \in [-\infty,1)}$ of reverse map projection embeddings, each one defining a unique new method of encoding classical data into quantum states. Inspired by well-known map projections from the unit sphere onto its tangent planes, used in practice in cartography, these embeddings address the common drawback of the amplitude embedding method, wherein scalar multiples of data points are identified and information about the norm of data is lost. We show how reverse map projections can be utilised as equivariant embeddings for quantum machine learning. Using these methods, we can leverage symmetries in classical datasets to significantly strengthen performance on quantum machine learning tasks. Finally, we select four values of $\alpha$ with which to perform a simple classification task, taking $E_\alpha$ as the embedding and experimenting with both equivariant and non-equivariant setups. We compare their results alongside those of standard amplitude embedding.

Aims. The space radiation environment conditions and the maximum expected coronal mass ejection (CME) speed are being assessed through the investigation of scaling laws between the peak proton flux and fluence of Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events with the speed of the CMEs. Methods. We utilize a complete catalog of SEP events, covering the last ~25 years of CME observations (i.e. 1997 to 2017). We calculate the peak proton fluxes and integrated event fluences for those events reaching an integral energy of up to E> 100 MeV, covering the period of the last ~25 years of CME observations. For a sample of 38 strong SEP events, we first investigate the statistical relations between the recorded peak proton fluxes (IP) and fluences (FP) at a set of integral energies of E >10 MeV, E>30 MeV, E>60 MeV, and E>100 MeV versus the projected CME speed near the Sun (VCME) obtained by the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory/Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph (SOHO/LASCO). Based on the inferred relations, we further calculate the integrated energy dependence of both IP and FP, assuming that they follow an inverse power-law with respect to energy. By making use of simple physical assumptions, we combine our derived scaling laws to estimate the upper limits for VCME, IP, and FP focusing on two cases of known extreme SEP events that occurred on February 23, 1956 (GLE05) and in AD774/775, respectively. Given physical constraints and assumptions, several options for the upper limit VCME, associated with these events, are investigated. Results. A scaling law relating IP and FP to the CME speed as V^{5}CME for CMEs ranging between ~3400-5400 km/s is consistent with values of FP inferred for the cosmogenic nuclide event of AD774/775. At the same time, the upper CME speed that the current Sun can provide possibly falls within an upper limit of VCME <= 5500 km/s.

The rapid advancement of quantum computing poses a significant threat to many current security algorithms used for secure communication, digital authentication, and information encryption. A sufficiently powerful quantum computer could potentially exploit vulnerabilities in these algorithms, rendering data in transit insecure. This threat is expected to materialize within the next 20 years. Immediate transition to quantum-resilient cryptographic schemes is crucial, primarily to mitigate store-now-decrypt-later attacks and to ensure the security of products with decade-long operational lives. This transition requires a systematic approach to identifying and upgrading vulnerable cryptographic implementations. This work developed a quantum assessment tool for organizations, providing tailored recommendations for transitioning their security protocols into a post-quantum world. The work included a systematic evaluation of the proposed solution using qualitative feedback from network administrators and cybersecurity experts. This feedback was used to refine the accuracy and usability of the assessment process. The results demonstrate its effectiveness and usefulness in helping organizations prepare for quantum computing threats. The assessment tool is publicly available at (https://quantum-watch.soton.ac.uk).

Acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) is a form of blood cancer that affects the white blood cells. ALL constitutes approximately 25% of pediatric cancers. Early diagnosis and treatment of ALL are crucial for improving patient outcomes. The task of identifying immature leukemic blasts from normal cells under the microscope can prove challenging, since the images of a healthy and cancerous cell appear similar morphologically. In this study, we propose a binary image classification model to assist in the diagnostic process of ALL. Our model takes as input microscopic images of blood samples and outputs a binary prediction of whether the sample is normal or cancerous. Our dataset consists of 10661 images out of 118 subjects. Deep learning techniques on convolutional neural network architectures were used to achieve accurate classification results. Our proposed method achieved 94.3% accuracy and could be used as an assisting tool for hematologists trying to predict the likelihood of a patient developing ALL.

AI personal assistants deployed via robots or wearables require embodied understanding to collaborate with humans effectively. However, current Vision-Language Models (VLMs) primarily focus on third-person view videos, neglecting the richness of egocentric perceptual experience. To address this gap, we propose three key contributions. First, we introduce the Egocentric Video Understanding Dataset (EVUD) for training VLMs on video captioning and question answering tasks specific to egocentric videos. Second, we present AlanaVLM, a 7B parameter VLM trained using parameter-efficient methods on EVUD. Finally, we evaluate AlanaVLM's capabilities on OpenEQA, a challenging benchmark for embodied video question answering. Our model achieves state-of-the-art performance, outperforming open-source models including strong Socratic models using GPT-4 as a planner by 3.6%. Additionally, we outperform Claude 3 and Gemini Pro Vision 1.0 and showcase competitive results compared to Gemini Pro 1.5 and GPT-4V, even surpassing the latter in spatial reasoning. This research paves the way for building efficient VLMs that can be deployed in robots or wearables, leveraging embodied video understanding to collaborate seamlessly with humans in everyday tasks, contributing to the next generation of Embodied AI., Comment: Code available https://github.com/alanaai/EVUD

Fast feedforward networks (FFFs) are a class of neural networks that exploit the observation that different regions of the input space activate distinct subsets of neurons in wide networks. FFFs partition the input space into separate sections using a differentiable binary tree of neurons and during inference descend the binary tree in order to improve computational efficiency. Inspired by Mixture of Experts (MoE) research, we propose the incorporation of load balancing and Master Leaf techniques into the FFF architecture to improve performance and simplify the training process. We reproduce experiments found in literature and present results on FFF models enhanced using these techniques. The proposed architecture and training recipe achieves up to 16.3% and 3% absolute classification accuracy increase in training and test accuracy, respectively, compared to the original FFF architecture. Additionally, we observe a smaller variance in the results compared to those reported in prior research. These findings demonstrate the potential of integrating MoE-inspired techniques into FFFs for developing more accurate and efficient models.

This work introduces a cooperative inspection system designed to efficiently control and coordinate a team of distributed heterogeneous UAV agents for the inspection of 3D structures in cluttered, unknown spaces. Our proposed approach employs a two-stage innovative methodology. Initially, it leverages the complementary sensing capabilities of the robots to cooperatively map the unknown environment. It then generates optimized, collision-free inspection paths, thereby ensuring comprehensive coverage of the structure's surface area. The effectiveness of our system is demonstrated through qualitative and quantitative results from extensive Gazebo-based simulations that closely replicate real-world inspection scenarios, highlighting its ability to thoroughly inspect real-world-like 3D structures., Comment: 2024 International Conference on Unmanned Aircraft Systems (ICUAS)

Fault-tolerant coverage control involves determining a trajectory that enables an autonomous agent to cover specific points of interest, even in the presence of actuation and/or sensing faults. In this work, the agent encounters control inputs that are erroneous; specifically, its nominal controls inputs are perturbed by stochastic disturbances, potentially disrupting its intended operation. Existing techniques have focused on deterministically bounded disturbances or relied on the assumption of Gaussian disturbances, whereas non-Gaussian disturbances have been primarily been tackled via scenario-based stochastic control methods. However, the assumption of Gaussian disturbances is generally limited to linear systems, and scenario-based methods can become computationally prohibitive. To address these limitations, we propose a hierarchical coverage controller that integrates mixed-trigonometric-polynomial moment propagation to propagate non-Gaussian disturbances through the agent's nonlinear dynamics. Specifically, the first stage generates an ideal reference plan by optimising the agent's mobility and camera control inputs. The second-stage fault-tolerant controller then aims to follow this reference plan, even in the presence of erroneous control inputs caused by non-Gaussian disturbances. This is achieved by imposing a set of deterministic constraints on the moments of the system's uncertain states., Comment: 12th IFAC Symposium on Fault Detection, Supervision, and Safety of Technical Processes (SAFEPROCESS 2024)

In the rapidly changing environments of disaster response, planning and decision-making for autonomous agents involve complex and interdependent choices. Although recent advancements have improved traditional artificial intelligence (AI) approaches, they often struggle in such settings, particularly when applied to agents operating outside their well-defined training parameters. To address these challenges, we propose an attention-based cognitive architecture inspired by Dual Process Theory (DPT). This framework integrates, in an online fashion, rapid yet heuristic (human-like) responses (System 1) with the slow but optimized planning capabilities of machine intelligence (System 2). We illustrate how a supervisory controller can dynamically determine in real-time the engagement of either system to optimize mission objectives by assessing their performance across a number of distinct attributes. Evaluated for trajectory planning in dynamic environments, our framework demonstrates that this synergistic integration effectively manages complex tasks by optimizing multiple mission objectives., Comment: 2024 IEEE World Congress on Computational Intelligence (IEEE WCCI), 2024 International Joint Conference on Neural Networks (IJCNN)

Global variance-based reliability sensitivity indices arise from a variance decomposition of the indicator function describing the failure event. The first-order indices reflect the main effect of each variable on the variance of the failure event and can be used for variable prioritization; the total-effect indices represent the total effect of each variable, including its interaction with other variables, and can be used for variable fixing. This contribution derives expressions for the variance-based reliability indices of systems with multiple failure modes that are based on the first-order reliability method (FORM). The derived expressions are a function of the FORM results and, hence, do not require additional expensive model evaluations. They do involve the evaluation of multinormal integrals, for which effective solutions are available. We demonstrate that the derived expressions enable an accurate estimation of variance-based reliability sensitivities for general system problems to which FORM is applicable.

This work proposes a receding horizon coverage control approach which allows multiple autonomous aerial agents to work cooperatively in order cover the total surface area of a 3D object of interest. The cooperative coverage problem which is posed in this work as an optimal control problem, jointly optimizes the agents' kinematic and camera control inputs, while considering coupling constraints amongst the team of agents which aim at minimizing the duplication of work. To generate look-ahead coverage trajectories over a finite planning horizon, the proposed approach integrates visibility constraints into the proposed coverage controller in order to determine the visible part of the object with respect to the agents' future states. In particular, we show how non-linear and non-convex visibility determination constraints can be transformed into logical constraints which can easily be embedded into a mixed integer optimization program.

Aims. We studied the first multi-spacecraft high-energy solar energetic particle (SEP) event of solar cycle 25, which triggered a ground level enhancement (GLE) on 28 October 2021, using data from multiple observers that were widely distributed throughout the heliosphere. Methods. We performed detail modelling of the shock wave and investigated the magnetic connectivity of each observer to the solar surface and examined the shock magnetic connection. We performed 3D SEP propagation simulations to investigate the role of particle transport in the distribution of SEPs to distant magnetically connected observers. Results. Observations and modelling show that a strong shock wave formed promptly in the low corona. At the SEP release time windows, we find a connection with the shock for all the observers. PSP, STA, and Solar Orbiter were connected to strong shock regions with high Mach numbers, whereas the Earth and other observers were connected to lower Mach numbers. The SEP spectral properties near Earth demonstrate two power laws, with a harder (softer) spectrum in the low-energy (high-energy) range. Composition observations from SIS (and near-Earth instruments) show no serious enhancement of flare-accelerated material. Conclusions. A possible scenario consistent with the observations and our analysis indicates that high-energy SEPs at PSP, STA, and Solar Orbiter were dominated by particle acceleration and injection by the shock, whereas high-energy SEPs that reached near-Earth space were associated with a weaker shock; it is likely that efficient transport of particles from a wide injection source contributed to the observed high-energy SEPs. Our study cannot exclude a contribution from a flare-related process; however, composition observations show no evidence of an impulsive composition of suprathermals during the event, suggestive of a non-dominant flare-related process.

With an aging population, numerous assistive and monitoring technologies are under development to enable older adults to age in place. To facilitate aging in place predicting risk factors such as falls, and hospitalization and providing early interventions are important. Much of the work on ambient monitoring for risk prediction has centered on gait speed analysis, utilizing privacy-preserving sensors like radar. Despite compelling evidence that monitoring step length, in addition to gait speed, is crucial for predicting risk, radar-based methods have not explored step length measurement in the home. Furthermore, laboratory experiments on step length measurement using radars are limited to proof of concept studies with few healthy subjects. To address this gap, a radar-based step length measurement system for the home is proposed based on detection and tracking using radar point cloud, followed by Doppler speed profiling of the torso to obtain step lengths in the home. The proposed method was evaluated in a clinical environment, involving 35 frail older adults, to establish its validity. Additionally, the method was assessed in people's homes, with 21 frail older adults who had participated in the clinical assessment. The proposed radar-based step length measurement method was compared to the gold standard Zeno Walkway Gait Analysis System, revealing a 4.5cm/8.3% error in a clinical setting. Furthermore, it exhibited excellent reliability (ICC(2,k)=0.91, 95% CI 0.82 to 0.96) in uncontrolled home settings. The method also proved accurate in uncontrolled home settings, as indicated by a strong agreement (ICC(3,k)=0.81 (95% CI 0.53 to 0.92)) between home measurements and in-clinic assessments.

The increasing use of tools and solutions based on Large Language Models (LLMs) for various tasks in the medical domain has become a prominent trend. Their use in this highly critical and sensitive domain has thus raised important questions about their robustness, especially in response to variations in input, and the reliability of the generated outputs. This study addresses these questions by constructing a textual dataset based on the ICD-10-CM code descriptions, widely used in US hospitals and containing many clinical terms, and their easily reproducible rephrasing. We then benchmarked existing embedding models, either generalist or specialized in the clinical domain, in a semantic search task where the goal was to correctly match the rephrased text to the original description. Our results showed that generalist models performed better than clinical models, suggesting that existing clinical specialized models are more sensitive to small changes in input that confuse them. The highlighted problem of specialized models may be due to the fact that they have not been trained on sufficient data, and in particular on datasets that are not diverse enough to have a reliable global language understanding, which is still necessary for accurate handling of medical documents., Comment: 11 pages, 1 figure, 5 tables

In response to numerous reports from students across Europe expressing concerns about acute housing conditions, the European Students' Union (ESU) and the Erasmus Student Network (ESN) launched a snap survey in early November 2022. The findings of the survey seek to provide Higher Education Institutions and policymakers with an evidence-based assessment of the existing challenges and lay the foundation for new initiatives to address them together with the students. The survey, which got almost 9000 answers in around 1 month, shows that a quarter (25%) of respondents experienced scams, proving the need for better support measures in this area. Lack of information about housing conditions (41%) and excessive deposit payments of more than 1 month (49%) are the most prevalent issues reported by students. The report shows clear differences among countries in almost all parameters. As an example, more than 38% of students going to Italy suffered scams, while only 10% of students going to Finland did. The success of this data collection effort can be attributed to the support and collaboration of Higher Education Institutions, Erasmus+ National Agencies, student organisations, and other key stakeholders such as University networks. Their collective dedication and participation allowed for a comprehensive understanding of the housing conditions faced by exchange students. The release of this research report marks a significant milestone in the ongoing efforts of ESU and ESN to advocate for the rights and well-being of exchange students in Europe. By leveraging the comprehensive data collected from across Europe, the organisations aim to drive meaningful change, empower students, and create a more inclusive and supportive educational environment. [Contributors to this report include Sara Tagliabracci, Lina Mohoric, Pedro Gonzalez, and Rita Dias. This report was co-produced by Erasmus Student Network.]

There have been incredible advancements in robotics and spoken dialogue systems (SDSs) over the past few years, yet we still don't find social robots in public spaces like train stations, shopping malls, or hospital waiting rooms. In this paper, we argue that early-stage collaboration between robot designers and SDS researchers is crucial to create social robots that can legitimately be used in real-world environments. We draw from our experiences running experiments with social robots, and the surrounding literature, to highlight recurring issues. Robots need more speakers, more microphones, quieter motors, and quieter fans to enable human-robot spoken interaction in the wild and improve accessibility. More robust robot joints are also needed to limit potential harm to older adults and other more vulnerable groups., Comment: In WTF Workshop Proceedings (arXiv:2401.04108) held in conjunction with the ACM conference on Conversational User Interfaces (CUI), 19 - 21/07 2023, in Eindhoven, The Netherlands

This paper introduces the Imperial Light-Stage Head (ILSH) dataset, a novel light-stage-captured human head dataset designed to support view synthesis academic challenges for human heads. The ILSH dataset is intended to facilitate diverse approaches, such as scene-specific or generic neural rendering, multiple-view geometry, 3D vision, and computer graphics, to further advance the development of photo-realistic human avatars. This paper details the setup of a light-stage specifically designed to capture high-resolution (4K) human head images and describes the process of addressing challenges (preprocessing, ethical issues) in collecting high-quality data. In addition to the data collection, we address the split of the dataset into train, validation, and test sets. Our goal is to design and support a fair view synthesis challenge task for this novel dataset, such that a similar level of performance can be maintained and expected when using the test set, as when using the validation set. The ILSH dataset consists of 52 subjects captured using 24 cameras with all 82 lighting sources turned on, resulting in a total of 1,248 close-up head images, border masks, and camera pose pairs., Comment: ICCV 2023 Workshop, 9 pages, 6 figures