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In this chapter, we use the ambitious policy mix scenario of Chapter 5 as our starting point. The scenario achieves the ambitious 2°C target in 2050 in the four East Asian countries and the main price-based instrument is the carbon tax, which generates revenue for national governments. Our analysis in this chapter consists of scenarios that are designed to enforce budget neutrality. We explore different ways in which the revenues from carbon taxes might be used to reduce other tax rates, that is, through Environmental Tax Reform (ETR). The options for other taxes to reduce are income taxes, VAT, and employers’ social security contributions. Additionally, we also look at a scenario in which revenues are recycled back as lump-sum payments to households as a basic income. The analysis is carried out using the E3ME model, with the same set-up that was used in Chapter 5. It shows that a carbon tax as part of ETR could lead to a smaller loss of GDP than the carbon tax alone or could lead to an overall increase in GDP.

１ 序 ２ 展開 ３ 結論

日本では最近、成果主義の人事制度を採用してきた多くの企業でその弊害が明らかになってきたため、見直しが進められてきている。しかし各地の大学の中にはこうした経験を横目に、教員や事務職員の個人業績評価を処遇に反映させる人事制度を導入する所が現れている。こうした評価制度は非合理な設計と運用が行われれば、教員に間違ったインセンティブを与え、職場環境を損ない、組織の業績を悪化させる恐れが指摘されている。 本稿では、定期昇給を伴う年功制賃金の骨格を残したまま、単年度の業績評価が翌年以降の基本給の上げ下げに用いられる場合、若年時の一回のプラス/マイナス査定が巨額の生涯賃金の変化として確定し、その後の努力で逆転できる可能性は極めて小さいことを明らかにする。本稿で示す統計学的シミュレーション分析の結果、例えば全従業員の上位（下位）3％のみがプラス（マイナス）査定を受ける制度の下では、同等の能力を有し30年間勤務するA氏とB氏の間で、A氏だけが初年度のプラス査定を受けた場合、B氏が生涯賃金においてA氏を上回ることが出来る可能性は約16％に過ぎず、初年度にマイナス査定を受けた人物が生涯賃金を回復できる可能性は1割に満たないことが明らかとなった。また、努力水準を加味しても、必ずしも挽回は保証されないことを示した。

4, KJ00005199199, P, 論文, Article

Greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) focus on producers and consumers and can be analyzed by using input-output tables, but GHG emissions from international shipping and aviation are generally estimated by using fuel consumption and fuel-based emission factors. This chapter analyzes the structure of GHG emissions from international shipping caused by final product demands from China, Japan, and Korea in terms of distance travelled, and relationship between producers and consumers. The need to transport intermediate goods internationally arises from the fragmentation of production; CO2 is emitted as a by-product of this process according to the amount of goods, the port distance, and the emission factor. Crude petroleum and natural gas are produced in Indonesia and exported to other East Asian countries, including China, as raw materials. Total CO2 emissions from international shipping that arise from China's final demand are 4.48 mt CO2. To identify individual countries responsible for these emissions it is necessary to estimate the direct and indirect emissions from shipping.

As we have seen in previous chapters, environmental tax reform (ETR) is an effective tool for curbing energy demand and the emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) (see Chapter 8 ), and could play a key role in the phasing out of nuclear power (see Chapter 5 ) with negligible or slightly positive macroeconomic outcomes. However, the inevitable rise in energy prices may lead to serious concerns about industrial competitiveness (see Chapter 13 ).

5, KJ00003962211, P, 論文, Article

This paper discusses the feasibility of the so-called “double dividend” of the environmental tax reform (ETR) in Japan using a computable general equilibrium analysis. The ETR not only introduces tax against the climate change but also recycles revenue in lowering some existing distortionary taxes. The CGE model with 16 production sectors and 27 commodities (including 14 energy products) based on the 1997 Input-Output Table avails in analyzing the necessary carbon and energy tax to meet Japan’s goal of CO2 reduction (here: 6% less than in 1990), and the economic cost or gain of the ETR. As a result, about 30,000yen/tC of carbon-energy tax on fossil fuels such as coal will be necessary by 2010. This will cause a moderate economic impact. Consequently, an even more economic gain (more GDP-growth and employment) can be achieved if revenue is allotted to reduce labor cost. One of the reasons for this result is the assumption of the non-cleared labor market. The effects of special treatment on heavy industries are also analyzed. There will be more employment and growth when the halved carbon-energy tax rates are applied to the four heavy industrial sectors, but the tax rate for other sectors and consumers must be higher. It can also be shown that by dividing the consumption sector into five income classes, the change of prices by this energy taxation can in itself be regressive, but the overall effect of the ETR will be rather proportional.