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In sharp contrast to the decreasing sea ice coverage of the Arctic, in the Antarctic the sea ice cover has, on average, expanded since the late 1970s. More specifically, satellite passive-microwave data for the period November 1978 - December 2010 reveal an overall positive trend in ice extents of 17,100 +/- 2,300 square km/yr. Much of the increase, at 13,700 +/- 1,500 square km/yr, has occurred in the region of the Ross Sea, with lesser contributions from the Weddell Sea and Indian Ocean. One region, that of the Bellingshausen/Amundsen Seas, has, like the Arctic, instead experienced significant sea ice decreases, with an overall ice extent trend of -8,200 +/- 1,200 square km/yr. When examined through the annual cycle over the 32-year period 1979-2010, the Southern Hemisphere sea ice cover as a whole experienced positive ice extent trends in every month, ranging in magnitude from a low of 9,100 +/- 6,300 square km/yr in February to a high of 24,700 +/- 10,000 square km/yr in May. The Ross Sea and Indian Ocean also had positive trends in each month, while the Bellingshausen/Amundsen Seas had negative trends in each month, and the Weddell Sea and Western Pacific Ocean had a mixture of positive and negative trends. Comparing ice-area results to ice-extent results, in each case the ice-area trend has the same sign as the ice-extent trend, but differences in the magnitudes of the two trends identify regions with overall increasing ice concentrations and others with overall decreasing ice concentrations. The strong pattern of decreasing ice coverage in the Bellingshausen/Amundsen Seas region and increasing ice coverage in the Ross Sea region is suggestive of changes in atmospheric circulation. This is a key topic for future research.

Arctic sea ice extent decreased by 0.30 plus or minus 0.03 x 10(exp 6) square kilometers per decade from 1972 through 2002, but decreased by 0.36 plus or minus 0.05 x 10(exp 6) square kilometers per decade from 1979 through 2002, indicating an acceleration of 20% in the rate of decrease. In contrast to the Arctic, the Antarctic sea ice extent decreased dramatically over the period 1973-1977, then gradually increased, with an overall 30-year trend of -0.15 plus or minus 0.08 x 10(exp 6) square kilometers per 10yr. The trend reversal is attributed to a large positive anomaly in Antarctic sea ice extent observed in the early 1970's.

A 30-year satellite record of sea ice extents derived mostly from satellite microwave radiometer observations reveals that the Arctic sea ice extent decreased by 0.30+0.03 x 10(exp 6) square kilometers per 10 yr from 1972 through 2002, but by 0.36 plus or minus 0.05 x 10(exp 6) square kilometers per 10yr from 1979 through 2002, indicating an acceleration of 20% in the rate of decrease. In contrast, the Antarctic sea ice extent decreased dramatically over the period 1973-1977, then gradually increased. Over the full 30-year period, the Antarctic ice extent decreased by 0.15 plus or minus 0.08 x 10(exp 6) square kilometers per 10 yr. The trend reversal is attributed to a large positive anomaly in Antarctic sea ice extent in the early 1970's, an anomaly that apparently began in the late 1960's, as observed in early visible and infrared satellite images.

We extend earlier analyses of a 9-year sea ice data set that described the local seasonal and trend variations in each of the hemispheric sea ice covers to the recently merged 18.2-year sea ice record from four satellite instruments. The seasonal cycle characteristics remain essentially the same as for the shorter time series, but the local trends are markedly different, in some cases reversing sign. The sign reversal reflects the lack of a consistent long-term trend and could be the result of localized long-term oscillations in the hemispheric sea ice covers. By combining the separate hemispheric sea ice records into a global one, we have shown that there are statistically significant net decreases in the sea ice coverage on a global scale. The change in the global sea ice extent, is -0.01 +/- 0.003 x 10(exp 6) sq km per decade. The decrease in the areal coverage of the sea ice is only slightly smaller, so that the difference in the two, the open water within the packs, has no statistically significant change.

From November 1978 through December 1996, the areal extent of sea ice decreased by 2.9 +/- 0.4 percent per decade in the Arctic and increased by 1.3 +/- 0.2 percent per decade in the Antarctic. The observed hemispheric asymmetry in these trends is consistent with a modeled response to a carbon dioxide-induced climate warming. The interannual variations, which are 2.3 percent of the annual mean in the Arctic, with a predominant period of about 5 years, and 3.4 percent of the annual mean in the Antarctic, with a predominant period of about 3 years, are uncorrelated.

The objectives were to determine and analyze the annual cycle of sea ice extents in the Arctic Ocean and peripheral seas and bays over the period 1973 to 1986, looking in particular for any long term trends; to examine the relationship between local sea ice covers and the surrounding atmosphere and ocean; and to examine sea ice as a potential early indicator of climate change. The work involves creating regional and hemispheric time series of sea ice variables from satellite passive microwave data and analyzing these through various intercomparisons amongst themselves and with oceanographic and atmospheric fields.

The influence of the hemispheric atmospheric circulation on the sea ice covers of the Bering Sea and the Sea of Okhotsk is examined using data obtained with the Nimbus 5 electrically scanning microwave radiometer for the four winters of the 1973-1976 period. The 3-day averaged sea ice extent data were used to establish periods for which there is an out-of-phase relationship between fluctuations of the two ice covers. A comparison of the sea-level atmospheric pressure field with the seasonal, interannual, and short-term sea ice fluctuations reveal an association between changes in the phase and the amplitude of the long waves in the atmosphere and advance and retreat of Arctic ice covers.

A summary data set for four years (mid 70's) of Arctic sea ice conditions is available on magnetic tape. The data include monthly and yearly averaged Nimbus 5 electrically scanning microwave radiometer (ESMR) brightness temperatures, an ice concentration parameter derived from the brightness temperatures, monthly climatological surface air temperatures, and monthly climatological sea level pressures. All data matrices are applied to 293 by 293 grids that cover a polar stereographic map enclosing the 50 deg N latitude circle. The grid size varies from about 32 X 32 km at the poles to about 28 X 28 km at 50 deg N. The ice concentration parameter is calculated assuming that the field of view contains only open water and first-year ice with an ice emissivity of 0.92. To account for the presence of multiyear ice, a nomogram is provided relating the ice concentration parameter, the total ice concentration, and the fraction of the ice cover which is multiyear ice.

The development and use of three-dimensional computer models of the earth's climate are discussed. The processes and interactions of the atmosphere, oceans, and sea ice are examined. The basic theory of climate simulation which includes the fundamental equations, models, and numerical techniques for simulating the atmosphere, oceans, and sea ice is described. Simulated wind, temperature, precipitation, ocean current, and sea ice distribution data are presented and compared to observational data. The responses of the climate to various environmental changes, such as variations in solar output or increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide, are modeled. Future developments in climate modeling are considered. Information is also provided on the derivation of the energy equation, the finite difference barotropic forecast model, the spectral transform technique, and the finite difference shallow water waved equation model.

Many regions of the world ocean known or suspected to have deep convection are sea-ice covered for at least a portion of the annual cycle. As this suggests that sea ice might have some impact on generating or maintaining this phenomenon, several mechanisms by which sea ice could exert an influence are presented in the following paragraphs. Sea ice formation could be a direct causal factor in deep convection by providing the surface density increase necessary to initiate the convective overturning. As sea ice forms, either by ice accretion or by in situ ice formation in open water or in lead areas between ice floes, salt is rejected to the underlying water. This increases the water salinity, thereby increasing water density in the mixed layer under the ice. A sufficient increase in density will lead to mixing with deeper waters, and perhaps to deep convection or even bottom water formation. Observations are needed to establish whether this process is actually occurring; it is most likely in regions with extensive ice formation and a relatively unstable oceanic density structure.

Satellite microwave imagery has allowed determination of sea ice conditions in the Sea of Okhotsk over years 1973-1976. Comparisons of the general features of the cycle of sea ice distribution with basic oceanographic factors shows that ice forms first in cold, shallow, low-salinity waters and then seems to drift in a direction approximating the Okhotsk-Kuril current system. The heaviest ice cover occurred in 1973, followed by a much weaker ice cover in 1974. Only the 1972-73 growth season experienced close to monotonic advance. A much greater weakening of the ice cover through polynya formation occurred during the 1976 decay season than in any of the other three years. Two fairly common ice macrostructures in the Sea of Okhotsk were identified as a rectangular structure and a wedge structure; these are strongly correlated with the bathymetry of the region and with the known current system.

Data from the Electrically Scanning Microwave Radiometer (ESMR) on the Nimbus 5 satellite are used to determine the extent and distribution of Antarctic sea ice. The characteristics of the southern ocean, the mathematical formulas used to obtain quantitative sea ice concentrations, the general characteristics of the seasonal sea ice growth/decay cycle and regional differences, and the observed seasonal growth/decay cycle for individual years and interannual variations of the ice cover are discussed. The sea ice data from the ESMR are presented in the form of color-coded maps of the Antarctic and the southern oceans. The maps show brightness temperatures and concentrations of pack ice averaged for each month, 4-year monthly averages, and month-to-month changes. Graphs summarizing the results, such as areas of sea ice as a function of time in the various sectors of the southern ocean are included. The images demonstrate that satellite microwave data provide unique information on large-scale sea ice conditions for determining climatic conditions in polar regions and possible global climatic changes.

Ocean heat flux sensitivity was studied on a numerical model of sea ice covering the Weddell Sea region of the southern ocean. The model is driven by mean monthly climatological atmospheric variables. For each model run, the ocean heat flux is uniform in both space and time. Ocean heat fluxes below 20 W m to the minus 2 power do not provide sufficient energy to allow the ice to melt to its summertime thicknesses and concentrations by the end of the 14 month simulation, whereas ocean heat fluxes of 30 W m to the minus 2 power and above result in too much ice melt, producing the almost total disappearance of ice in the Weddell Sea by the end of the 14 months. These results are dependent on the atmospheric forcing fields.

Ratios R of the monthly averaged wind speeds to the magnitudes of the monthly averaged wind vectors are presented over a 41 x 41 grid covering the southern Ocean and the Antarctic continent. The ratio is found to vary from 1 to over 1000, with an average value of 1.86. These ratios R are relevant for converting from sensible and latent heats calculated with mean monthly data to those calculated with 12 hourly data. The corresponding ratios alpha for wind stress, along with the angle deviations involved, are also presented over the same 41 x 41 grid. The values of alpha generally exceed those for R and average 2.66. Regions in zones of variable wind directions have larger R and alpha ratios, over the ice-covered portions of the southern Ocean averaging 2.74 and 4.35 for R and alpha respectively. Thus adjustments to compensate for the use of mean monthly wind velocities should be stronger for wind stress than for turbulent heats and stronger over ice covered regions than over regions with more persistent wind directions, e.g., those in the belt of mid-latitude westerlies.

The 1974 Antarctic large scale sea ice extent is studied from data from Nimbus 2 and 5 and temperature and sea level pressure fields from the Australian Meteorological Data Set. Electrically Scanning Microwave Radiometer data were three-day averaged and compared with 1000 mbar atmospheric pressure and sea level pressure data, also in three-day averages. Each three-day period was subjected to a Fourier analysis and included the mean latitude of the ice extent and the phases and percent variances in terms of the first six Fourier harmonics. Centers of low pressure were found to be generally east of regions which displayed rapid ice growth, and winds acted to extend the ice equatorward. An atmospheric response was also noted as caused by the changing ice cover.

Sea ice conditions in the Sea of Okhotsk, as determined by satellite images from the electrically scanning microwave radiometer on board Nimbus 5, were analyzed in conjunction with the known oceanography. In particular, the sea ice coverage was compared with the bottom bathymetry and the surface currents, water temperatures, and salinity. It is found that ice forms first in cold, shallow, low salinity waters. Once formed, the ice seems to drift in a direction approximating the Okhotsk-Kuril current system. Two basic patterns of ice edge positioning which persist for significant periods were identified as a rectangular structure and a wedge structure. Each of these is strongly correlated with the bathymetry of the region and with the known current system, suggesting that convective depth and ocean currents play an important role in determining ice patterns.

Electronically Scanning Microwave Radiometer data from Nimbus 5 have been used to examine variations in the area of the North Water polynya, i.e., an area of reduced ice concentration in a region of predominantly ice-covered water, during the winter periods 1973-74, 1974-75, and 1975-76. It is found that the North Water polynya opens and closes repeatedly during the winter season, being open roughly 30% of the time between October and May. No strong correlations are found between this opening and limited atmospheric data available from three surrounding stations.

The GLAS General Circulation Model (GCM) was applied to the four-month simulation of the thermodynamic part of the Parkinson-Washington sea ice model using atmospheric boundary conditions. The sea ice thickness and distribution were predicted for the Jan. 1-Apr. 30 period using the GCM-fields of solar and infrared radiation, specific humidity and air temperature at the surface, and snow accumulation; the sensible heat and evaporative surface fluxes were consistent with the ground temperatures produced by the ice model and the air temperatures determined by the atmospheric concept. It was concluded that the Parkinson-Washington sea ice model results in acceptable ice concentrations and thicknesses when used with GLAS GCM for the Jan.-Apr. period suggesting the feasibility of fully coupled ice-atmosphere simulations with these two approaches.

The described large-scale sea ice model, which is capable of coupling with atmospheric and oceanic models of comparable resolution, simulates the yearly cycle of ice in both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. Model results for the yearly cycle of sea ice thickness and extent in both the Arctic and the Antarctic are presented. Horizontally the model resolution is approximately 200 km, while vertically four layers - ice, snow, ocean, and atmosphere - are considered. Thermodynamic processes based on energy balances at the various interfaces and dynamic processes based on wind stress, water stress, Coriolis force, internal ice resistance, and the stress from the tilt of the sea surface are incorporated. It is assumed that the ice within a given grid square is of uniform thickness, although each square has a variable percentage of its area ice free.