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BACKGROUND: The green peach aphid Myzus persicae is a major pest of many crops around the world, causing direct damage and acting as a vector for several viruses. This species has developed resistance to several insecticides, resulting in a greater emphasis on nonchemical methods of control. The aphidophagous ladybird, Harmonia conformis, is one of several species to predate on this pest. H. conformis is native to Australia, but has been exported to New Zealand, the USA and Europe as a biological control agent for horticultural pests and has now become established in several regions. Despite these introductions, the ability of H. conformis to predate on M. persicae has not yet been quantified. To address this knowledge gap, we measured the potential success of this natural enemy and its functional response over a range of temperatures. RESULTS: H. conformis displayed a Type II response over all temperatures assessed. The peak temperature for voracity was 32 °C, with a potential maximum daily predation rate of 204 aphids. Consumption of aphids by H. conformis on canola plants within a glasshouse was less than predicted from the laboratory‐generated models. However, consumption increased significantly with increasing density of M. persicae. CONCLUSION: H. conformis can contribute markedly to aphid suppression and could be incorporated into integrated pest management systems which rely on natural enemies, particularly during spring when temperatures increase above 25 °C. Furthermore, it would also be an ideal candidate for augmentative releases. © 2021 Society of Chemical Industry. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Areawide management has a long history of achieving solutions that target pests, however, there has been little focus on the areawide management of arthropod natural enemies. Landscape ecology studies that show a positive relationship between natural enemy abundance and habitat diversity demonstrate landscape-dependent pest suppression, but have not yet clearly linked their findings to pest management or to the suite of pests associated with crops that require control. Instead the focus has often been on model systems of single pest species and their natural enemies. We suggest that management actions to capture pest control from natural enemies may be forth coming if: (i) the suite of response and predictor variables focus on pest complexes and specific management actions; (ii) the contribution of 'the landscape' is identified by assessing the timing and numbers of natural enemies immigrating and emigrating to and from the target crop, as well as pests; and (iii) pest control thresholds aligned with crop development stages are the benchmark to measure impact of natural enemies on pests, in turn allowing for comparison between study regions, and generalizations. To achieve pest control we will need to incorporate what has been learned from an ecological understanding of model pest and natural enemy systems and integrate areawide landscape management with in-field pest management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this article we review a variety of methods to enable understanding and modelling the spread of a pest or pathogen post-entry. Building upon our experience of multidisciplinary research in this area, we propose practical guidelines and a framework for model development, to help with the application of mathematical modelling in the field of invasion ecology for post-entry spread. We evaluate the pros and cons of a range of methods, including references to examples of the methods in practice. We also show how issues of data deficiency and uncertainty can be addressed. The aim is to provide guidance to the reader on the most suitable elements to include in a model of post-entry dispersal in a risk assessment, under differing circumstances. We identify both the strengths and weaknesses of different methods and their application as part of a holistic, multidisciplinary approach to biosecurity research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The development of forward scenarios is a useful method of envisaging the environmental implications of potential changes in land use, as a tool for policy development. In this paper, a spatially explicit case study is used to provide insight into the environmental impacts of Common Agricultural Policy reform on Skylark Alauda arvensis, a species which is widespread on arable farmland, breeds in crops and has declined in recent decades. A generalized linear mixed model was used to estimate Skylark breeding population densities in different crops, using survey data collected from farms in the east of England, supplemented by the literature. Model outputs were then used to predict Skylark densities in an East Anglian Joint Character Area dominated by arable cropping. Predicted densities were mapped at field level using GIS, based on actual cropping derived from Integrated Administration and Control System data collected for the administration of subsidy payments. Three future scenarios were then created, based on expert opinion of potential changes in cropping over the next 5 years, and potential changes in Skylark density mapped on the basis of the predicted changes in cropping patterns. Overall, Skylark densities were predicted to decrease on average by 11–14% under ‘market-led’ (increasing wheat and oilseed rape, reduced set-aside) and ‘energy crop’ (5% area under short rotation coppice) scenarios, but remained virtually unchanged under an ‘environment-led’ (diverse cropping) scenario. The ‘market-led’ scenario is closest to short-term agricultural trajectories, but wider cultivation of biomass energy crops as modelled under the ‘energy crop’ scenario could occur in the medium term if energy policies are favourable. Appropriate mitigation strategies therefore need to be implemented if a continued decline in the Skylark population on lowland arable farmland is to be averted. The results provide a readily accessible visualization of the potential impacts of land-use change for policy-makers; similar techniques could be applied to visualize effects of changes arising through other drivers, including climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]