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1. Evaluation of FluSight influenza forecasting in the 2021–22 and 2022–23 seasons with a new target laboratory-confirmed influenza hospitalizations

Author

Mathis, Sarabeth M., Webber, Alexander E., León, Tomás M., Murray, Erin L., Sun, Monica, White, Lauren A., Brooks, Logan C., Green, Alden, Hu, Addison J., Rosenfeld, Roni, Shemetov, Dmitry, Tibshirani, Ryan J., McDonald, Daniel J., Kandula, Sasikiran, Pei, Sen, Yaari, Rami, Yamana, Teresa K., Shaman, Jeffrey, Agarwal, Pulak, Balusu, Srikar, Gururajan, Gautham, Kamarthi, Harshavardhan, Prakash, B. Aditya, Raman, Rishi, Zhao, Zhiyuan, Rodríguez, Alexander, Meiyappan, Akilan, Omar, Shalina, Baccam, Prasith, Gurung, Heidi L., Suchoski, Brad T., Stage, Steve A., Ajelli, Marco, Kummer, Allisandra G., Litvinova, Maria, Ventura, Paulo C., Wadsworth, Spencer, Niemi, Jarad, Carcelen, Erica, Hill, Alison L., Loo, Sara L., McKee, Clifton D., Sato, Koji, Smith, Claire, Truelove, Shaun, Jung, Sung-mok, Lemaitre, Joseph C., Lessler, Justin, McAndrew, Thomas, Ye, Wenxuan, Bosse, Nikos, Hlavacek, William S., Lin, Yen Ting, Mallela, Abhishek, Gibson, Graham C., Chen, Ye, Lamm, Shelby M., Lee, Jaechoul, Posner, Richard G., Perofsky, Amanda C., Viboud, Cécile, Clemente, Leonardo, Lu, Fred, Meyer, Austin G., Santillana, Mauricio, Chinazzi, Matteo, Davis, Jessica T., Mu, Kunpeng, Pastore y Piontti, Ana, Vespignani, Alessandro, Xiong, Xinyue, Ben-Nun, Michal, Riley, Pete, Turtle, James, Hulme-Lowe, Chis, Jessa, Shakeel, Nagraj, V. P., Turner, Stephen D., Williams, Desiree, Basu, Avranil, Drake, John M., Fox, Spencer J., Suez, Ehsan, Cojocaru, Monica G., Thommes, Edward W., Cramer, Estee Y., Gerding, Aaron, Stark, Ariane, Ray, Evan L., Reich, Nicholas G., Shandross, Li, Wattanachit, Nutcha, Wang, Yijin, Zorn, Martha W., Aawar, Majd Al, Srivastava, Ajitesh, Meyers, Lauren A., Adiga, Aniruddha, Hurt, Benjamin, Kaur, Gursharn, Lewis, Bryan L., Marathe, Madhav, Venkatramanan, Srinivasan, Butler, Patrick, Farabow, Andrew, Ramakrishnan, Naren, Muralidhar, Nikhil, Reed, Carrie, Biggerstaff, Matthew, and Borchering, Rebecca K.

Published
2024
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2. Multiple models for outbreak decision support in the face of uncertainty.

Author

Shea, Katriona, Borchering, Rebecca K, Probert, William JM, Howerton, Emily, Bogich, Tiffany L, Li, Shou-Li, van Panhuis, Willem G, Viboud, Cecile, Aguás, Ricardo, Belov, Artur A, Bhargava, Sanjana H, Cavany, Sean M, Chang, Joshua C, Chen, Cynthia, Chen, Jinghui, Chen, Shi, Chen, YangQuan, Childs, Lauren M, Chow, Carson C, Crooker, Isabel, Del Valle, Sara Y, España, Guido, Fairchild, Geoffrey, Gerkin, Richard C, Germann, Timothy C, Gu, Quanquan, Guan, Xiangyang, Guo, Lihong, Hart, Gregory R, Hladish, Thomas J, Hupert, Nathaniel, Janies, Daniel, Kerr, Cliff C, Klein, Daniel J, Klein, Eili Y, Lin, Gary, Manore, Carrie, Meyers, Lauren Ancel, Mittler, John E, Mu, Kunpeng, Núñez, Rafael C, Oidtman, Rachel J, Pasco, Remy, Pastore Y Piontti, Ana, Paul, Rajib, Pearson, Carl AB, Perdomo, Dianela R, Perkins, T Alex, Pierce, Kelly, Pillai, Alexander N, Rael, Rosalyn Cherie, Rosenfeld, Katherine, Ross, Chrysm Watson, Spencer, Julie A, Stoltzfus, Arlin B, Toh, Kok Ben, Vattikuti, Shashaank, Vespignani, Alessandro, Wang, Lingxiao, White, Lisa J, Xu, Pan, Yang, Yupeng, Yogurtcu, Osman N, Zhang, Weitong, Zhao, Yanting, Zou, Difan, Ferrari, Matthew J, Pannell, David, Tildesley, Michael J, Seifarth, Jack, Johnson, Elyse, Biggerstaff, Matthew, Johansson, Michael A, Slayton, Rachel B, Levander, John D, Stazer, Jeff, Kerr, Jessica, and Runge, Michael C

Subjects
Humans, Uncertainty, Public Health, Disease Outbreaks, Pandemics, COVID-19, cognitive biases, decision theory, multi-model aggregation, Prevention, Brain Disorders, Good Health and Well Being
Abstract

Policymakers must make management decisions despite incomplete knowledge and conflicting model projections. Little guidance exists for the rapid, representative, and unbiased collection of policy-relevant scientific input from independent modeling teams. Integrating approaches from decision analysis, expert judgment, and model aggregation, we convened multiple modeling teams to evaluate COVID-19 reopening strategies for a mid-sized United States county early in the pandemic. Projections from seventeen distinct models were inconsistent in magnitude but highly consistent in ranking interventions. The 6-mo-ahead aggregate projections were well in line with observed outbreaks in mid-sized US counties. The aggregate results showed that up to half the population could be infected with full workplace reopening, while workplace restrictions reduced median cumulative infections by 82%. Rankings of interventions were consistent across public health objectives, but there was a strong trade-off between public health outcomes and duration of workplace closures, and no win-win intermediate reopening strategies were identified. Between-model variation was high; the aggregate results thus provide valuable risk quantification for decision making. This approach can be applied to the evaluation of management interventions in any setting where models are used to inform decision making. This case study demonstrated the utility of our approach and was one of several multimodel efforts that laid the groundwork for the COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub, which has provided multiple rounds of real-time scenario projections for situational awareness and decision making to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention since December 2020.

Published
2023

4. Evaluation of the US COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub for informing pandemic response under uncertainty

Author

Howerton, Emily, Contamin, Lucie, Mullany, Luke C., Qin, Michelle, Reich, Nicholas G., Bents, Samantha, Borchering, Rebecca K., Jung, Sung-mok, Loo, Sara L., Smith, Claire P., Levander, John, Kerr, Jessica, Espino, J., van Panhuis, Willem G., Hochheiser, Harry, Galanti, Marta, Yamana, Teresa, Pei, Sen, Shaman, Jeffrey, Rainwater-Lovett, Kaitlin, Kinsey, Matt, Tallaksen, Kate, Wilson, Shelby, Shin, Lauren, Lemaitre, Joseph C., Kaminsky, Joshua, Hulse, Juan Dent, Lee, Elizabeth C., McKee, Clifton D., Hill, Alison, Karlen, Dean, Chinazzi, Matteo, Davis, Jessica T., Mu, Kunpeng, Xiong, Xinyue, Pastore y Piontti, Ana, Vespignani, Alessandro, Rosenstrom, Erik T., Ivy, Julie S., Mayorga, Maria E., Swann, Julie L., España, Guido, Cavany, Sean, Moore, Sean, Perkins, Alex, Hladish, Thomas, Pillai, Alexander, Ben Toh, Kok, Longini, Jr., Ira, Chen, Shi, Paul, Rajib, Janies, Daniel, Thill, Jean-Claude, Bouchnita, Anass, Bi, Kaiming, Lachmann, Michael, Fox, Spencer J., Meyers, Lauren Ancel, Srivastava, Ajitesh, Porebski, Przemyslaw, Venkatramanan, Srini, Adiga, Aniruddha, Lewis, Bryan, Klahn, Brian, Outten, Joseph, Hurt, Benjamin, Chen, Jiangzhuo, Mortveit, Henning, Wilson, Amanda, Marathe, Madhav, Hoops, Stefan, Bhattacharya, Parantapa, Machi, Dustin, Cadwell, Betsy L., Healy, Jessica M., Slayton, Rachel B., Johansson, Michael A., Biggerstaff, Matthew, Truelove, Shaun, Runge, Michael C., Shea, Katriona, Viboud, Cécile, and Lessler, Justin

Published
2023
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5. Estimating the potential risk of transmission of arboviruses in the Americas and Europe: a modelling study

Author

Zardini, Agnese, Menegale, Francesco, Gobbi, Andrea, Manica, Mattia, Guzzetta, Giorgio, d'Andrea, Valeria, Marziano, Valentina, Trentini, Filippo, Montarsi, Fabrizio, Caputo, Beniamino, Solimini, Angelo, Marques-Toledo, Cecilia, Wilke, André B B, Rosà, Roberto, Marini, Giovanni, Arnoldi, Daniele, Pastore y Piontti, Ana, Pugliese, Andrea, Capelli, Gioia, della Torre, Alessandra, Teixeira, Mauro M, Beier, John C, Rizzoli, Annapaola, Vespignani, Alessandro, Ajelli, Marco, Merler, Stefano, and Poletti, Piero

Published
2024
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6. Modeling of Future COVID-19 Cases, Hospitalizations, and Deaths, by Vaccination Rates and Nonpharmaceutical Intervention Scenarios — United States, April–September 2021

Author

Borchering, Rebecca K., Viboud, Cécile, Howerton, Emily, Smith, Claire P., Truelove, Shaun, Runge, Michael C., Reich, Nicholas G., Contamin, Lucie, Levander, John, Salerno, Jessica, van Panhuis, Wilbert, Kinsey, Matt, Tallaksen, Kate, Obrecht, R. Freddy, Asher, Laura, Costello, Cash, Kelbaugh, Michael, Wilson, Shelby, Shin, Lauren, Gallagher, Molly E., Mullany, Luke C., Rainwater-Lovett, Kaitlin, Lemaitre, Joseph C., Dent, Juan, Grantz, Kyra H., Kaminsky, Joshua, Lauer, Stephen A., Lee, Elizabeth C., Meredith, Hannah R., Perez-Saez, Javier, Keegan, Lindsay T., Karlen, Dean, Chinazzi, Matteo, Davis, Jessica T., Mu, Kunpeng, Xiong, Xinyue, Pastore y Piontti, Ana, Vespignani, Alessandro, Srivastava, Ajitesh, Porebski, Przemyslaw, Venkatramanan, Srinivasan, Adiga, Aniruddha, Lewis, Bryan, Klahn, Brian, Outten, Joseph, Schlitt, James, Corbett, Patrick, Telionis, Pyrros Alexander, Wang, Lijing, Peddireddy, Akhil Sai, Hurt, Benjamin, Chen, Jiangzhuo, Vullikanti, Anil, Marathe, Madhav, Healy, Jessica M., Slayton, Rachel B., Biggerstaff, Matthew, Johansson, Michael A., Shea, Katriona, and Lessler, Justin

Published
2021

8. Cryptic transmission of SARS-CoV-2 and the first COVID-19 wave

Author

Davis, Jessica T., Chinazzi, Matteo, Perra, Nicola, Mu, Kunpeng, Pastore y Piontti, Ana, Ajelli, Marco, Dean, Natalie E., Gioannini, Corrado, Litvinova, Maria, Merler, Stefano, Rossi, Luca, Sun, Kaiyuan, Xiong, Xinyue, Longini, Jr, Ira M., Halloran, M. Elizabeth, Viboud, Cécile, and Vespignani, Alessandro

Published
2021
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10. COMPUTATIONAL MODELING OF 'DISEASE X'

Author

Pastore y Piontti, Ana, Perra, Nicola, Rossi, Luca, Samay, Nicole, Vespignani, Alessandro, Pastore y Piontti, Ana, Perra, Nicola, Rossi, Luca, Samay, Nicole, Vespignani, Alessandro, Gioannini, Corrado, With Contrib. by, Gomes, Marcelo F. C., With Contrib. by, and Gonçalves, Bruno, With Contrib. by

Published
2019
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11. DATA MODEL INTEGRATION: THE GLOBAL EPIDEMIC AND MOBILITY FRAMEWORK

Author

Pastore y Piontti, Ana, Perra, Nicola, Rossi, Luca, Samay, Nicole, Vespignani, Alessandro, Pastore y Piontti, Ana, Perra, Nicola, Rossi, Luca, Samay, Nicole, Vespignani, Alessandro, Gioannini, Corrado, With Contrib. by, Gomes, Marcelo F. C., With Contrib. by, and Gonçalves, Bruno, With Contrib. by

Published
2019
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13. INFECTIOUS DISEASE SPREADING: FROM DATA TO MODELS

Author

Pastore y Piontti, Ana, Perra, Nicola, Rossi, Luca, Samay, Nicole, Vespignani, Alessandro, Pastore y Piontti, Ana, Perra, Nicola, Rossi, Luca, Samay, Nicole, Vespignani, Alessandro, Gioannini, Corrado, With Contrib. by, Gomes, Marcelo F. C., With Contrib. by, and Gonçalves, Bruno, With Contrib. by

Published
2019
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14. FROM DATA TO KNOWLEDGE: HOW MODELS CAN BE USED

Author

Pastore y Piontti, Ana, Perra, Nicola, Rossi, Luca, Samay, Nicole, Vespignani, Alessandro, Pastore y Piontti, Ana, Perra, Nicola, Rossi, Luca, Samay, Nicole, Vespignani, Alessandro, Gioannini, Corrado, With Contrib. by, Gomes, Marcelo F. C., With Contrib. by, and Gonçalves, Bruno, With Contrib. by

Published
2019
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15. DATA, DATA, AND MORE DATA

Author

Pastore y Piontti, Ana, Perra, Nicola, Rossi, Luca, Samay, Nicole, Vespignani, Alessandro, Pastore y Piontti, Ana, Perra, Nicola, Rossi, Luca, Samay, Nicole, Vespignani, Alessandro, Gioannini, Corrado, With Contrib. by, Gomes, Marcelo F. C., With Contrib. by, and Gonçalves, Bruno, With Contrib. by

Published
2019
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18. Evaluation of FluSight influenza forecasting in the 2021-22 and 2022-23 seasons with a new target laboratory-confirmed influenza hospitalizations

Author

Mathis, Sarabeth M., primary, Webber, Alexander E., additional, León, Tomás M., additional, Murray, Erin L., additional, Sun, Monica, additional, White, Lauren A., additional, Brooks, Logan C., additional, Green, Alden, additional, Hu, Addison J., additional, McDonald, Daniel J., additional, Rosenfeld, Roni, additional, Shemetov, Dmitry, additional, Tibshirani, Ryan J., additional, Kandula, Sasikiran, additional, Pei, Sen, additional, Shaman, Jeffrey, additional, Yaari, Rami, additional, Yamana, Teresa K., additional, Agarwal, Pulak, additional, Balusu, Srikar, additional, Gururajan, Gautham, additional, Kamarthi, Harshavardhan, additional, Prakash, B. Aditya, additional, Raman, Rishi, additional, Rodríguez, Alexander, additional, Zhao, Zhiyuan, additional, Meiyappan, Akilan, additional, Omar, Shalina, additional, Baccam, Prasith, additional, Gurung, Heidi L., additional, Stage, Steve A., additional, Suchoski, Brad T., additional, Ajelli, Marco, additional, Kummer, Allisandra G., additional, Litvinova, Maria, additional, Ventura, Paulo C., additional, Wadsworth, Spencer, additional, Niemi, Jarad, additional, Carcelen, Erica, additional, Hill, Alison L, additional, Jung, Sung-mok, additional, Lemaitre, Joseph C., additional, Lessler, Justin, additional, Loo, Sara L, additional, McKee, Clifton D., additional, Sato, Koji, additional, Smith, Claire, additional, Truelove, Shaun, additional, McAndrew, Thomas, additional, Ye, Wenxuan, additional, Bosse, Nikos, additional, Hlavacek, William S., additional, Lin, Yen Ting, additional, Mallela, Abhishek, additional, Chen, Ye, additional, Lamm, Shelby M., additional, Lee, Jaechoul, additional, Posner, Richard G., additional, Perofsky, Amanda C., additional, Viboud, Cécile, additional, Clemente, Leonardo, additional, Lu, Fred, additional, Meyer, Austin G, additional, Santillana, Mauricio, additional, Chinazzi, Matteo, additional, Davis, Jessica T., additional, Mu, Kunpeng, additional, Pastore y Piontti, Ana, additional, Vespignani, Alessandro, additional, Xiong, Xinyue, additional, Ben-Nun, Michal, additional, Riley, Pete, additional, Turtle, James, additional, Hulme-Lowe, Chis, additional, Jessa, Shakeel, additional, Nagraj, V.P., additional, Turner, Stephen D., additional, Williams, Desiree, additional, Basu, Avranil, additional, Drake, John M., additional, Fox, Spencer J., additional, Gibson, Graham C., additional, Suez, Ehsan, additional, Thommes, Edward W., additional, Cojocaru, Monica G., additional, Cramer, Estee Y., additional, Gerding, Aaron, additional, Stark, Ariane, additional, Ray, Evan L., additional, Reich, Nicholas G., additional, Shandross, Li, additional, Wattanachit, Nutcha, additional, Wang, Yijin, additional, Zorn, Martha W., additional, Aawar, Majd Al, additional, Srivastava, Ajitesh, additional, Meyers, Lauren A., additional, Adiga, Aniruddha, additional, Hurt, Benjamin, additional, Kaur, Gursharn, additional, Lewis, Bryan L., additional, Marathe, Madhav, additional, Venkatramanan, Srinivasan, additional, Butler, Patrick, additional, Farabow, Andrew, additional, Muralidhar, Nikhil, additional, Ramakrishnan, Naren, additional, Reed, Carrie, additional, Biggerstaff, Matthew, additional, and Borchering, Rebecca K., additional

Published
2023
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19. Spread of Zika virus in the Americas

Author

Zhang, Qian, Sun, Kaiyuan, Chinazzi, Matteo, Pastore y Piontti, Ana, Dean, Natalie E., Rojas, Diana Patricia, Merler, Stefano, Mistry, Dina, Poletti, Piero, Rossi, Luca, Bray, Margaret, Halloran, M. Elizabeth, Longini, Ira M., and Vespignani, Alessandro

Published
2017

20. Charting the Next Pandemic

Author

Pastore y Piontti, Ana, primary, Perra, Nicola, additional, Rossi, Luca, additional, Samay, Nicole, additional, and Vespignani, Alessandro, additional

Published
2019
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21. DATA, DATA, AND MORE DATA

Author

Pastore y Piontti, Ana, primary, Perra, Nicola, additional, Rossi, Luca, additional, Samay, Nicole, additional, and Vespignani, Alessandro, additional

Published
2018
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27. Impact of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination of children ages 5–11 years on COVID-19 disease burden and resilience to new variants in the United States, November 2021–March 2022: a multi-model study

Author

Borchering, Rebecca K., primary, Mullany, Luke C., additional, Howerton, Emily, additional, Chinazzi, Matteo, additional, Smith, Claire P., additional, Qin, Michelle, additional, Reich, Nicholas G., additional, Contamin, Lucie, additional, Levander, John, additional, Kerr, Jessica, additional, Espino, J., additional, Hochheiser, Harry, additional, Lovett, Kaitlin, additional, Kinsey, Matt, additional, Tallaksen, Kate, additional, Wilson, Shelby, additional, Shin, Lauren, additional, Lemaitre, Joseph C., additional, Hulse, Juan Dent, additional, Kaminsky, Joshua, additional, Lee, Elizabeth C., additional, Hill, Alison L., additional, Davis, Jessica T., additional, Mu, Kunpeng, additional, Xiong, Xinyue, additional, Pastore y Piontti, Ana, additional, Vespignani, Alessandro, additional, Srivastava, Ajitesh, additional, Porebski, Przemyslaw, additional, Venkatramanan, Srini, additional, Adiga, Aniruddha, additional, Lewis, Bryan, additional, Klahn, Brian, additional, Outten, Joseph, additional, Hurt, Benjamin, additional, Chen, Jiangzhuo, additional, Mortveit, Henning, additional, Wilson, Amanda, additional, Marathe, Madhav, additional, Hoops, Stefan, additional, Bhattacharya, Parantapa, additional, Machi, Dustin, additional, Chen, Shi, additional, Paul, Rajib, additional, Janies, Daniel, additional, Thill, Jean-Claude, additional, Galanti, Marta, additional, Yamana, Teresa, additional, Pei, Sen, additional, Shaman, Jeffrey, additional, España, Guido, additional, Cavany, Sean, additional, Moore, Sean, additional, Perkins, Alex, additional, Healy, Jessica M., additional, Slayton, Rachel B., additional, Johansson, Michael A., additional, Biggerstaff, Matthew, additional, Shea, Katriona, additional, Truelove, Shaun A., additional, Runge, Michael C., additional, Viboud, Cécile, additional, and Lessler, Justin, additional

Published
2023
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29. Projected resurgence of COVID-19 in the United States in July—December 2021 resulting from the increased transmissibility of the Delta variant and faltering vaccination

Author

Truelove, Shaun, primary, Smith, Claire P, primary, Qin, Michelle, additional, Mullany, Luke C, additional, Borchering, Rebecca K, additional, Lessler, Justin, additional, Shea, Katriona, additional, Howerton, Emily, additional, Contamin, Lucie, additional, Levander, John, additional, Kerr, Jessica, additional, Hochheiser, Harry, additional, Kinsey, Matt, additional, Tallaksen, Kate, additional, Wilson, Shelby, additional, Shin, Lauren, additional, Rainwater-Lovett, Kaitlin, additional, Lemairtre, Joseph C, additional, Dent, Juan, additional, Kaminsky, Joshua, additional, Lee, Elizabeth C, additional, Perez-Saez, Javier, additional, Hill, Alison, additional, Karlen, Dean, additional, Chinazzi, Matteo, additional, Davis, Jessica T, additional, Mu, Kunpeng, additional, Xiong, Xinyue, additional, Pastore y Piontti, Ana, additional, Vespignani, Alessandro, additional, Srivastava, Ajitesh, additional, Porebski, Przemyslaw, additional, Venkatramanan, Srinivasan, additional, Adiga, Aniruddha, additional, Lewis, Bryan, additional, Klahn, Brian, additional, Outten, Joseph, additional, Orr, Mark, additional, Harrison, Galen, additional, Hurt, Benjamin, additional, Chen, Jiangzhuo, additional, Vullikanti, Anil, additional, Marathe, Madhav, additional, Hoops, Stefan, additional, Bhattacharya, Parantapa, additional, Machi, Dustin, additional, Chen, Shi, additional, Paul, Rajib, additional, Janies, Daniel, additional, Thill, Jean-Claude, additional, Galanti, Marta, additional, Yamana, Teresa K, additional, Pei, Sen, additional, Shaman, Jeffrey L, additional, Healy, Jessica M, additional, Slayton, Rachel B, additional, Biggerstaff, Matthew, additional, Johansson, Michael A, additional, Runge, Michael C, additional, and Viboud, Cecile, additional

Published
2022
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30. Quantifying the importance and location of SARS-CoV-2 transmission events in large metropolitan areas

Author

Aleta, Alberto, primary, Martín-Corral, David, additional, Bakker, Michiel A., additional, Pastore y Piontti, Ana, additional, Ajelli, Marco, additional, Litvinova, Maria, additional, Chinazzi, Matteo, additional, Dean, Natalie E., additional, Halloran, M. Elizabeth, additional, Longini, Ira M., additional, Pentland, Alex, additional, Vespignani, Alessandro, additional, Moreno, Yamir, additional, and Moro, Esteban, additional

Published
2022
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31. Author response: Projected resurgence of COVID-19 in the United States in July—December 2021 resulting from the increased transmissibility of the Delta variant and faltering vaccination

Author

Truelove, Shaun, primary, Smith, Claire P, primary, Qin, Michelle, additional, Mullany, Luke C, additional, Borchering, Rebecca K, additional, Lessler, Justin, additional, Shea, Katriona, additional, Howerton, Emily, additional, Contamin, Lucie, additional, Levander, John, additional, Kerr, Jessica, additional, Hochheiser, Harry, additional, Kinsey, Matt, additional, Tallaksen, Kate, additional, Wilson, Shelby, additional, Shin, Lauren, additional, Rainwater-Lovett, Kaitlin, additional, Lemairtre, Joseph C, additional, Dent, Juan, additional, Kaminsky, Joshua, additional, Lee, Elizabeth C, additional, Perez-Saez, Javier, additional, Hill, Alison, additional, Karlen, Dean, additional, Chinazzi, Matteo, additional, Davis, Jessica T, additional, Mu, Kunpeng, additional, Xiong, Xinyue, additional, Pastore y Piontti, Ana, additional, Vespignani, Alessandro, additional, Srivastava, Ajitesh, additional, Porebski, Przemyslaw, additional, Venkatramanan, Srinivasan, additional, Adiga, Aniruddha, additional, Lewis, Bryan, additional, Klahn, Brian, additional, Outten, Joseph, additional, Orr, Mark, additional, Harrison, Galen, additional, Hurt, Benjamin, additional, Chen, Jiangzhuo, additional, Vullikanti, Anil, additional, Marathe, Madhav, additional, Hoops, Stefan, additional, Bhattacharya, Parantapa, additional, Machi, Dustin, additional, Chen, Shi, additional, Paul, Rajib, additional, Janies, Daniel, additional, Thill, Jean-Claude, additional, Galanti, Marta, additional, Yamana, Teresa K, additional, Pei, Sen, additional, Shaman, Jeffrey L, additional, Healy, Jessica M, additional, Slayton, Rachel B, additional, Biggerstaff, Matthew, additional, Johansson, Michael A, additional, Runge, Michael C, additional, and Viboud, Cecile, additional

Published
2022
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33. Quantifying the importance and location of SARS-CoV-2 transmission events in large metropolitan areas

Author

MIT Connection Science (Research institute), Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Institute for Data, Systems, and Society, Aleta, Alberto, Martín-Corral, David, Bakker, Michiel A, Pastore y Piontti, Ana, Ajelli, Marco, Litvinova, Maria, Chinazzi, Matteo, Dean, Natalie E, Halloran, M Elizabeth, Longini, Ira M, Pentland, Alex, Vespignani, Alessandro, Moreno, Yamir, Moro, Esteban, MIT Connection Science (Research institute), Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Institute for Data, Systems, and Society, Aleta, Alberto, Martín-Corral, David, Bakker, Michiel A, Pastore y Piontti, Ana, Ajelli, Marco, Litvinova, Maria, Chinazzi, Matteo, Dean, Natalie E, Halloran, M Elizabeth, Longini, Ira M, Pentland, Alex, Vespignani, Alessandro, Moreno, Yamir, and Moro, Esteban

Abstract

Detailed characterization of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission across different settings can help design less disruptive interventions. We used real-time, privacy-enhanced mobility data in the New York City, NY and Seattle, WA metropolitan areas to build a detailed agent-based model of SARS-CoV-2 infection to estimate the where, when, and magnitude of transmission events during the pandemic’s first wave. We estimate that only 18% of individuals produce most infections (80%), with about 10% of events that can be considered superspreading events (SSEs). Although mass gatherings present an important risk for SSEs, we estimate that the bulk of transmission occurred in smaller events in settings like workplaces, grocery stores, or food venues. The places most important for transmission change during the pandemic and are different across cities, signaling the large underlying behavioral component underneath them. Our modeling complements case studies and epidemiological data and indicates that real-time tracking of transmission events could help evaluate and define targeted mitigation policies.

Published
2022

34. Evaluation of individual and ensemble probabilistic forecasts of COVID-19 mortality in the United States

Author

Cramer, Estee Y., primary, Ray, Evan L., additional, Lopez, Velma K., additional, Bracher, Johannes, additional, Brennen, Andrea, additional, Castro Rivadeneira, Alvaro J., additional, Gerding, Aaron, additional, Gneiting, Tilmann, additional, House, Katie H., additional, Huang, Yuxin, additional, Jayawardena, Dasuni, additional, Kanji, Abdul H., additional, Khandelwal, Ayush, additional, Le, Khoa, additional, Mühlemann, Anja, additional, Niemi, Jarad, additional, Shah, Apurv, additional, Stark, Ariane, additional, Wang, Yijin, additional, Wattanachit, Nutcha, additional, Zorn, Martha W., additional, Gu, Youyang, additional, Jain, Sansiddh, additional, Bannur, Nayana, additional, Deva, Ayush, additional, Kulkarni, Mihir, additional, Merugu, Srujana, additional, Raval, Alpan, additional, Shingi, Siddhant, additional, Tiwari, Avtansh, additional, White, Jerome, additional, Abernethy, Neil F., additional, Woody, Spencer, additional, Dahan, Maytal, additional, Fox, Spencer, additional, Gaither, Kelly, additional, Lachmann, Michael, additional, Meyers, Lauren Ancel, additional, Scott, James G., additional, Tec, Mauricio, additional, Srivastava, Ajitesh, additional, George, Glover E., additional, Cegan, Jeffrey C., additional, Dettwiller, Ian D., additional, England, William P., additional, Farthing, Matthew W., additional, Hunter, Robert H., additional, Lafferty, Brandon, additional, Linkov, Igor, additional, Mayo, Michael L., additional, Parno, Matthew D., additional, Rowland, Michael A., additional, Trump, Benjamin D., additional, Zhang-James, Yanli, additional, Chen, Samuel, additional, Faraone, Stephen V., additional, Hess, Jonathan, additional, Morley, Christopher P., additional, Salekin, Asif, additional, Wang, Dongliang, additional, Corsetti, Sabrina M., additional, Baer, Thomas M., additional, Eisenberg, Marisa C., additional, Falb, Karl, additional, Huang, Yitao, additional, Martin, Emily T., additional, McCauley, Ella, additional, Myers, Robert L., additional, Schwarz, Tom, additional, Sheldon, Daniel, additional, Gibson, Graham Casey, additional, Yu, Rose, additional, Gao, Liyao, additional, Ma, Yian, additional, Wu, Dongxia, additional, Yan, Xifeng, additional, Jin, Xiaoyong, additional, Wang, Yu-Xiang, additional, Chen, YangQuan, additional, Guo, Lihong, additional, Zhao, Yanting, additional, Gu, Quanquan, additional, Chen, Jinghui, additional, Wang, Lingxiao, additional, Xu, Pan, additional, Zhang, Weitong, additional, Zou, Difan, additional, Biegel, Hannah, additional, Lega, Joceline, additional, McConnell, Steve, additional, Nagraj, V. P., additional, Guertin, Stephanie L., additional, Hulme-Lowe, Christopher, additional, Turner, Stephen D., additional, Shi, Yunfeng, additional, Ban, Xuegang, additional, Walraven, Robert, additional, Hong, Qi-Jun, additional, Kong, Stanley, additional, van de Walle, Axel, additional, Turtle, James A., additional, Ben-Nun, Michal, additional, Riley, Steven, additional, Riley, Pete, additional, Koyluoglu, Ugur, additional, DesRoches, David, additional, Forli, Pedro, additional, Hamory, Bruce, additional, Kyriakides, Christina, additional, Leis, Helen, additional, Milliken, John, additional, Moloney, Michael, additional, Morgan, James, additional, Nirgudkar, Ninad, additional, Ozcan, Gokce, additional, Piwonka, Noah, additional, Ravi, Matt, additional, Schrader, Chris, additional, Shakhnovich, Elizabeth, additional, Siegel, Daniel, additional, Spatz, Ryan, additional, Stiefeling, Chris, additional, Wilkinson, Barrie, additional, Wong, Alexander, additional, Cavany, Sean, additional, España, Guido, additional, Moore, Sean, additional, Oidtman, Rachel, additional, Perkins, Alex, additional, Kraus, David, additional, Kraus, Andrea, additional, Gao, Zhifeng, additional, Bian, Jiang, additional, Cao, Wei, additional, Lavista Ferres, Juan, additional, Li, Chaozhuo, additional, Liu, Tie-Yan, additional, Xie, Xing, additional, Zhang, Shun, additional, Zheng, Shun, additional, Vespignani, Alessandro, additional, Chinazzi, Matteo, additional, Davis, Jessica T., additional, Mu, Kunpeng, additional, Pastore y Piontti, Ana, additional, Xiong, Xinyue, additional, Zheng, Andrew, additional, Baek, Jackie, additional, Farias, Vivek, additional, Georgescu, Andreea, additional, Levi, Retsef, additional, Sinha, Deeksha, additional, Wilde, Joshua, additional, Perakis, Georgia, additional, Bennouna, Mohammed Amine, additional, Nze-Ndong, David, additional, Singhvi, Divya, additional, Spantidakis, Ioannis, additional, Thayaparan, Leann, additional, Tsiourvas, Asterios, additional, Sarker, Arnab, additional, Jadbabaie, Ali, additional, Shah, Devavrat, additional, Della Penna, Nicolas, additional, Celi, Leo A., additional, Sundar, Saketh, additional, Wolfinger, Russ, additional, Osthus, Dave, additional, Castro, Lauren, additional, Fairchild, Geoffrey, additional, Michaud, Isaac, additional, Karlen, Dean, additional, Kinsey, Matt, additional, Mullany, Luke C., additional, Rainwater-Lovett, Kaitlin, additional, Shin, Lauren, additional, Tallaksen, Katharine, additional, Wilson, Shelby, additional, Lee, Elizabeth C., additional, Dent, Juan, additional, Grantz, Kyra H., additional, Hill, Alison L., additional, Kaminsky, Joshua, additional, Kaminsky, Kathryn, additional, Keegan, Lindsay T., additional, Lauer, Stephen A., additional, Lemaitre, Joseph C., additional, Lessler, Justin, additional, Meredith, Hannah R., additional, Perez-Saez, Javier, additional, Shah, Sam, additional, Smith, Claire P., additional, Truelove, Shaun A., additional, Wills, Josh, additional, Marshall, Maximilian, additional, Gardner, Lauren, additional, Nixon, Kristen, additional, Burant, John C., additional, Wang, Lily, additional, Gao, Lei, additional, Gu, Zhiling, additional, Kim, Myungjin, additional, Li, Xinyi, additional, Wang, Guannan, additional, Wang, Yueying, additional, Yu, Shan, additional, Reiner, Robert C., additional, Barber, Ryan, additional, Gakidou, Emmanuela, additional, Hay, Simon I., additional, Lim, Steve, additional, Murray, Chris, additional, Pigott, David, additional, Gurung, Heidi L., additional, Baccam, Prasith, additional, Stage, Steven A., additional, Suchoski, Bradley T., additional, Prakash, B. Aditya, additional, Adhikari, Bijaya, additional, Cui, Jiaming, additional, Rodríguez, Alexander, additional, Tabassum, Anika, additional, Xie, Jiajia, additional, Keskinocak, Pinar, additional, Asplund, John, additional, Baxter, Arden, additional, Oruc, Buse Eylul, additional, Serban, Nicoleta, additional, Arik, Sercan O., additional, Dusenberry, Mike, additional, Epshteyn, Arkady, additional, Kanal, Elli, additional, Le, Long T., additional, Li, Chun-Liang, additional, Pfister, Tomas, additional, Sava, Dario, additional, Sinha, Rajarishi, additional, Tsai, Thomas, additional, Yoder, Nate, additional, Yoon, Jinsung, additional, Zhang, Leyou, additional, Abbott, Sam, additional, Bosse, Nikos I., additional, Funk, Sebastian, additional, Hellewell, Joel, additional, Meakin, Sophie R., additional, Sherratt, Katharine, additional, Zhou, Mingyuan, additional, Kalantari, Rahi, additional, Yamana, Teresa K., additional, Pei, Sen, additional, Shaman, Jeffrey, additional, Li, Michael L., additional, Bertsimas, Dimitris, additional, Skali Lami, Omar, additional, Soni, Saksham, additional, Tazi Bouardi, Hamza, additional, Ayer, Turgay, additional, Adee, Madeline, additional, Chhatwal, Jagpreet, additional, Dalgic, Ozden O., additional, Ladd, Mary A., additional, Linas, Benjamin P., additional, Mueller, Peter, additional, Xiao, Jade, additional, Wang, Yuanjia, additional, Wang, Qinxia, additional, Xie, Shanghong, additional, Zeng, Donglin, additional, Green, Alden, additional, Bien, Jacob, additional, Brooks, Logan, additional, Hu, Addison J., additional, Jahja, Maria, additional, McDonald, Daniel, additional, Narasimhan, Balasubramanian, additional, Politsch, Collin, additional, Rajanala, Samyak, additional, Rumack, Aaron, additional, Simon, Noah, additional, Tibshirani, Ryan J., additional, Tibshirani, Rob, additional, Ventura, Valerie, additional, Wasserman, Larry, additional, O’Dea, Eamon B., additional, Drake, John M., additional, Pagano, Robert, additional, Tran, Quoc T., additional, Ho, Lam Si Tung, additional, Huynh, Huong, additional, Walker, Jo W., additional, Slayton, Rachel B., additional, Johansson, Michael A., additional, Biggerstaff, Matthew, additional, and Reich, Nicholas G., additional

Published
2022
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36. sj-pdf-1-ctj-10.1177_17407745211028898 – Supplemental material for Using simulated infectious disease outbreaks to inform site selection and sample size for individually randomized vaccine trials during an ongoing epidemic

Author

Madewell, Zachary J, Pastore Y Piontti, Ana, Zhang, Qian, Burton, Nathan, Yang, Yang, Longini, Ira M, Halloran, M Elizabeth, Vespignani, Alessandro, and Dean, Natalie E

Subjects
FOS: Clinical medicine, 160807 Sociological Methodology and Research Methods, humanities, 111599 Pharmacology and Pharmaceutical Sciences not elsewhere classified, FOS: Sociology
Abstract

Supplemental material, sj-pdf-1-ctj-10.1177_17407745211028898 for Using simulated infectious disease outbreaks to inform site selection and sample size for individually randomized vaccine trials during an ongoing epidemic by Zachary J Madewell, Ana Pastore Y Piontti, Qian Zhang, Nathan Burton, Yang Yang, Ira M Longini, M Elizabeth Halloran, Alessandro Vespignani and Natalie E Dean in Clinical Trials

Published
2021
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38. Using heterogeneous data to identify signatures of dengue outbreaks at fine spatio-temporal scales across Brazil

Author

Castro, Lauren A., primary, Generous, Nicholas, additional, Luo, Wei, additional, Pastore y Piontti, Ana, additional, Martinez, Kaitlyn, additional, Gomes, Marcelo F. C., additional, Osthus, Dave, additional, Fairchild, Geoffrey, additional, Ziemann, Amanda, additional, Vespignani, Alessandro, additional, Santillana, Mauricio, additional, Manore, Carrie A., additional, and Del Valle, Sara Y., additional

Published
2021
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39. Assessing the potential impacts of COVID-19 in Brasil: Mobility, Morbidity and Impact to the Health System

Author

Coelho, Flávio Codeço, Lana, Raquel Martins, Cruz, Oswaldo Gonçalves, Codeço, Claudia Torres, Villela, Daniel, Bastos, Leonardo S., Pastore y Piontti, Ana, Davis, Jessica T., Vespignani, Alessandro, Gomes, Marcelo F.C., Escolas::EMAp, and Demais unidades::RPCA

Subjects
Pandemia, Matemática, Infecções por coronavírus - Aspectos sociais - Brasil, COVID-19, Saúde, Pandemics, Infecções por coronavírus, Morbidade, Mobilidade, Ciências sociais
Abstract

The two largest Brazilian cities, Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo, have declared community transmission of COVID-19 on mid March, 2020. In this study we estimated the most vulnerable areas in Brazil for COVID-19, both in terms of risk of introduction and risk of mortality associated with social vulnerability. We explore the most likely routes of spread through the country, from the already exposed cities, according to human mobility statistics. The resulting maps should help authorities in their efforts to prioritize actions and if resource allocation to mitigate the effects of the pandemic.

Published
2020

40. Estimativa de risco de espalhamento da COVID-19 no Brasil e o impacto no sistema de saúde e população por microrregião

Author

Codeço, Claudia Torres, Villela, Daniel, Coelho, Flávio Codeço, Bastos, Leonardo S., Gomes, Marcelo F.C., Cruz, Oswaldo Gonçalves, Lana, Raquel Martins, Pastore y Piontti, Ana, Vespignani, Alessandro, Davis, Jessica T., and Demais unidades::RPCA

Subjects
Pandemia, Infecções por coronavírus - Aspectos sociais - Brasil, Risco de saúde, COVID-19, Saúde, Infecções por coronavírus
Abstract

Esse relatório analisa o risco de importação de COVID-19 para as microrregiões brasileiras decorrente da presença de transmissão sustentada nos dois maiores centros urbanos, Rio de Janeiro e São Paulo e os efeitos de possível ocorrência de epidemias nas microrregiões associados a faixas da população com maior risco de morbidade e letalidade, como idosos, e indicadores de capacidade no SUS, como número de leitos. Esses cenários foram construídos assumindo ausência de distanciamento social e restrição de viagem. Muitos municípios e unidades da federação já acertadamente iniciaram implementação de medidas de isolamento. Tais medidas contribuem para diminuir o risco que foi avaliado neste estudo.

Published
2020

41. Estimativa de risco de espalhamento da COVID-19 no Brasil e avaliação da vulnerabilidade socioeconômica nas microrregiões brasileiras

Author

Codeço, Claudia Torres, Villela, Daniel, Coelho, Flávio Codeço, Bastos, Leonardo S., Carvalho, Luiz Max, Gomes, Marcelo F.C., Cruz, Oswaldo Gonçalves, Lana, Raquel Martins, Vespignani, Alessandro, Pastore y Piontti, Ana, Davis, Jessica T., Escolas::EMAp, and Demais unidades::RPCA

Subjects
Pandemia, Matemática, Infecções por coronavírus - Aspectos sociais - Brasil, COVID-19, Saúde, Infecções por coronavírus, Ciências sociais
Abstract

Esse relatório atualiza a análise do risco de disseminação da COVID-19 para as microrregiões brasileiras decorrente da presença de transmissão sustentada nos dois maiores centros urbanos, Rio de Janeiro e São Paulo. Faz também a identificação de microrregiões com alta vulnerabilidade social, e maior contingente de população idosa. A combinação de um alto risco de introdução com alta vulnerabilidade constitui em situação de alerta máximo. Esses cenários foram construídos assumindo ausência de distanciamento social e restrição de viagem que entraram em vigor. Muitos municípios e unidades da federação acertadamente já iniciaram implementação de medidas de isolamento. Tais medidas contribuem para diminuir o risco que foi avaliado neste estudo. Foram incluídos também cenários de redução da mobilidade intermunicipal e interação social para avaliação de impacto.

Published
2020

42. Cost Effective Proactive Testing Strategies During COVID-19 Mass Vaccination: A Modelling Study

Author

Du, Zhanwei, primary, Wang, Lin, additional, Bai, Yuan, additional, Wang, Xutong, additional, Pandey, Abhishek, additional, Chinazzi, Matteo, additional, Pastore y Piontti, Ana, additional, Hupert, Nathaniel, additional, Lachmann, Michael, additional, Vespignani, Alessandro, additional, Galvani, Alison P., additional, Cowling, Benjamin J., additional, and Meyers, Lauren Ancel, additional

Published
2021
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45. Estimating the establishment of local transmission and the cryptic phase of the COVID-19 pandemic in the USA

Author

Davis, Jessica T., primary, Chinazzi, Matteo, additional, Perra, Nicola, additional, Mu, Kunpeng, additional, Pastore y Piontti, Ana, additional, Ajelli, Marco, additional, Dean, Natalie E., additional, Gioannini, Corrado, additional, Litvinova, Maria, additional, Merler, Stefano, additional, Rossi, Luca, additional, Sun, Kaiyuan, additional, Xiong, Xinyue, additional, Halloran, M. Elizabeth, additional, Longini, Ira M., additional, Viboud, Cécile, additional, and Vespignani, Alessandro, additional

Published
2020
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46. Modeling the impact of social distancing, testing, contact tracing and household quarantine on second-wave scenarios of the COVID-19 epidemic

Author

Aleta, Alberto, primary, Martin-Corral, David, additional, Pastore y Piontti, Ana, additional, Ajelli, Marco, additional, Litvinova, Maria, additional, Chinazzi, Matteo, additional, Dean, Natalie E, additional, Halloran, M. Elizabeth, additional, Longini, Ira M, additional, Merler, Stefano, additional, Pentland, Alex, additional, Vespignani, Alessandro, additional, Moro, Esteban, additional, and Moreno, Yamir, additional

Published
2020
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47. The effect of travel restrictions on the spread of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak

Author

Chinazzi, Matteo, primary, Davis, Jessica T., additional, Ajelli, Marco, additional, Gioannini, Corrado, additional, Litvinova, Maria, additional, Merler, Stefano, additional, Pastore y Piontti, Ana, additional, Mu, Kunpeng, additional, Rossi, Luca, additional, Sun, Kaiyuan, additional, Viboud, Cécile, additional, Xiong, Xinyue, additional, Yu, Hongjie, additional, Halloran, M. Elizabeth, additional, Longini, Ira M., additional, and Vespignani, Alessandro, additional

Published
2020
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48. What does and does not correlate with COVID-19 death rates

Author

Sloan School of Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Institute for Data, Systems, and Society, Aleta, Alberto, Martín-Corral, David, Pastore y Piontti, Ana, Ajelli, Marco, Litvinova, Maria, Chinazzi, Matteo, Dean, Natalie E., Halloran, M. Elizabeth, Longini Jr, Ira M., Merler, Stefano, Pentland, Alex Paul, Vespignani, Alessandro, Moro Egido, Esteban, Moreno, Yamir, Sloan School of Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Institute for Data, Systems, and Society, Aleta, Alberto, Martín-Corral, David, Pastore y Piontti, Ana, Ajelli, Marco, Litvinova, Maria, Chinazzi, Matteo, Dean, Natalie E., Halloran, M. Elizabeth, Longini Jr, Ira M., Merler, Stefano, Pentland, Alex Paul, Vespignani, Alessandro, Moro Egido, Esteban, and Moreno, Yamir

Abstract

While severe social-distancing measures have proven effective in slowing the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, second-wave scenarios are likely to emerge as restrictions are lifted. Here we integrate anonymized, geolocalized mobility data with census and demographic data to build a detailed agent-based model of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission in the Boston metropolitan area. We find that a period of strict social distancing followed by a robust level of testing, contact-tracing and household quarantine could keep the disease within the capacity of the healthcare system while enabling the reopening of economic activities. Our results show that a response system based on enhanced testing and contact tracing can have a major role in relaxing social-distancing interventions in the absence of herd immunity against SARS-CoV-2.

Published
2020

49. Comparative Cost-Effectiveness of SARS-CoV-2 Testing Strategies

Author

DU, Zhanwei, primary, Pandey, Abhishek, additional, Bai, Yuan, additional, C. Fitzpatrick, Meagan, additional, Chinazzi, Matteo, additional, Pastore y Piontti, Ana, additional, Lachmann, Michael, additional, Vespignani, Alessandro, additional, J. Cowling, Benjamin, additional, P. Galvani, Alison, additional, and Meyers, Lauren Ancel, additional

Published
2020
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