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Introduction: In older patients with axis fractures, the survival benefit from surgery is unclear due to high baseline mortality. Comparative effectiveness research can provide evidence from population level cohorts. Propensity weighting is the preferred methodology for reducing bias when analyzing national administrative cohort data for these purposes but has not yet been utilized for this important surgical conundrum. We estimate the effect of surgery on mortality after isolated acute traumatic axis fracture in older adults. Materials and Methods: We used a retrospective population-based cohort of Medicare patients and generated a propensity score-weighted nonsurgical cohort and compared mortality with and without surgery. This balanced the comorbid conditions of the treatment groups. Incident fractures were defined using a predetermined algorithm based on enrollment, code timing, and billing location. The primary outcome was adjusted all-cause 1-year mortality. Results: From 12 372 beneficiaries with 1-year continuous enrollment and a coded axis fracture, 2676 patients met final inclusion/exclusion criteria. Estimated incidence was 16.5 per 100 000 person-years overall in 2014 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 15.0-18.0) and was stable from 2008 through 2014. Patients with axis fracture had a mean age of 82.8 years, 30.2% were male, and 91.9% were Caucasian. Mortality was 3.8 times higher (CI 3.6-4.1) compared with the general population of older US adults. Propensity-weighted mortality at 1 year for nonsurgical patients was 26.7 of 100 (CI: 24.5-29.0). Mortality for surgical patients was significantly lower (19.7/100; CI 14.5-25.0). Risk difference was 7.0 fewer surgical deaths per 100 patients (CI: 1.3-12.7). Surgical patients aged 65 to 74 years had the largest difference in mortality with 11.2 fewer deaths per 100 (CI: 1.1-21.3). Discussion: Patients with axis fractures are predominantly older Caucasian women and have a higher mortality rate than the general population. Propensity-weighted mortality at 1-year was lower in the surgical patients with the largest risk difference occurring in patients 65 to 74 years old. Conclusions: Surgery may provide an independent survival benefit in patients aged 65 to 75 years, and the mortality difference diminishes thereafter.

OBJECTIVE Using the 2016 Medicare Part D coverage gap as an example, we explored effects of increased out-of-pocket costs on adherence to branded dipeptidyl peptidase 4 inhibitors (DPP-4i) in patients without financial subsidies relative to subsidized patients who do not experience increased spending during the gap. We also explored seasonality of reinitiation, because discontinuers may be more likely to reinitiate in January when benefits reset. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS We identified DPP-4i or sulfonylurea initiators, aged ‡66 years, from a 20% sample of 2015–2016 Medicare claims. Difference-in-differences Poisson regression was used to compare adherence before and after entering the coverage gap between nonsubsidizedand subsidized patients.Among discontinuers, monthly hazardratios (HRs) for reinitiation relative to January 2016 were derived with Cox models. As a second control, we repeated analyses using sulfonylureas, generic low-cost alternatives. RESULTS In 2016, 8,096 subsidized and 6,173 nonsubsidized DPP-4i initiators entered the coverage gap. For nonsubsidized patients, copayment in the coverage gap was 45% ($227 per DPP-4i prescription), and adherence decreased from 68.4% to 49.0% after gap entry. Accounting for adherence differences in subsidized patients, nonsubsidized patients demonstrated reduced adherence to DPP-4i (differencein-difference: 216.9%; 95% CI 218.7%, 215.1%) but not sulfonylureas (21.6%; 95% CI 23.4%, 0.2%). Reinitiation was lowest in the months before January (HR 0.4–0.5) among nonsubsidized DPP-4i patients, demonstrating a strong seasonal pattern. CONCLUSIONS Increased out-of-pocket costs negatively affect adherence and reinitiation of branded antihyperglycemic drugs among patients without financial subsidies. Despite closure of the coverage gap, affordability remains a concern given increasing list prices for many drugs on Medicare and the growing use of deductibles and coinsurance by commercial health plans.

Aims: Type 2 diabetes (T2D) accelerates progression of chronic liver disease to cirrhosis, yet the effects of most glucose-lowering drugs (GLDs) on cirrhosis risk in T2D are unknown. To address this gap, we compared cirrhosis risk following initiation of newer second-line GLDs vs. thiazolidinediones (TZDs), which improve histology in non-alcoholic fatty liver disease. Materials and methods: Using the US Medicare Fee-for-Service database (2007–2015) and an active comparator, new-user design, we estimated crude incidence rates (IRs) and propensity-score adjusted hazard ratios (aHR) for incident cirrhosis, comparing newer GLDs (dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors (DPP4i), glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP1RA), and sodium-glucose co-transporter 2 inhibitors (SGLT2i)) vs. TZDs. Results: Among 239,549 total initiators, we observed 318, 151, and < 30 cirrhosis events when comparing DPP4i vs. TZD, GLP1RA vs. TZD, and SGLT2i vs. TZD, respectively. IRs ranged from 1.7 [95% CI, 0.8–3.6] to 3.6 [2.5–5.2] events per 1000 person-years. Point aHR estimates for cirrhosis were elevated among newer GLD initiators vs. TZD (DPP4i: 1.15 [0.89–1.50]; GLP1RA: 1.34 [0.82–2.20]; SGLT2i: 1.16, [0.44–3.08]), although estimates were imprecise due to short durations of drug exposure. Conclusions: We observed mildly elevated cirrhosis risk with newer GLDs vs. TZD; however, uncertainty remains due to imprecise and statistically non-significant effect estimates.

Background Sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitors (SGLT2i) have been associated with increased occurrence of Fournier's gangrene (FG), a rare but serious form of necrotizing fasciitis, leading to a warning from the Food and Drug Administration. Real-world evidence on FG is needed to validate this warning. Methods We used data from IBM MarketScan (2013-2017) to compare the incidence of FG among adult patients who initiated either SGLT2i, a dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitor (DPP4i), or any non-SGLT2i antihyperglycemic medication. FG was defined using inpatient International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Edition and Tenth Edition diagnosis codes 608.83 and N49.3, respectively, combined with procedure codes for debridement, surgery, or systemic antibiotics. We estimated crude incidence rates (IRs) using Poisson regression, and crude and adjusted HRs (aHR) and 95% CIs using standardized mortality ratio-weighted Cox proportional hazards models. Sensitivity analyses examined the impact of alternative outcome definitions. Results We identified 211 671 initiators of SGLT2i (n=93 197) and DPP4i (n=118 474), and 305 329 initiators of SGLT2i (n=32 868) and non-SGLT2i (n=272 461). Crude FG IR ranged from 3.2 to 3.8 cases per 100 000 person-years during a median follow-up of 0.51-0.58 years. Compared with DPP4i, SGLT2i initiation was not associated with increased risk of FG for any outcome definition, with aHR estimates ranging from 0.25 (0.04-1.74) to 1.14 (0.86-1.51). In the non-SGLT2i comparison, we observed an increased risk of FG for SGLT2i initiators when using FG diagnosis codes alone, using all diagnosis settings (aHR 1.80; 0.53-6.11) and inpatient diagnoses only (aHR 4.58; 0.99-21.21). Conclusions No evidence of increased risk of FG associated with SGLT2i was observed compared with DPP4i, arguably the most relevant clinical comparison. However, uncertainty remains based on potentially higher risk in the broader comparison with all non-SGLT2i antihyperglycemic agents and the rarity of FG. Trial registration number EUPAS Register Number 30018.

Aim: To examine whether sodium-glucose co-transporter-2 (SGLT2) inhibitors are associated with a higher risk of lower-extremity amputation than dipeptidyl-peptidase-4 (DPP-4) inhibitors and sulphonylureas. Methods: We conducted a retrospective cohort study, using the MarketScan Commercial Claims and Encounters Database (2013-2015), to compare the incidence of lower-extremity amputation (LEA) between initiators of SGLT2 inhibitors and initiators of two second-line drugs, DPP-4 inhibitors and sulphonylureas (SUs). We estimated crude incidence rates (IRs) and adjusted hazard ratios (aHR), with 95% confidence intervals (CIs), before and after propensity-score weighting. We additionally conducted sensitivity analyses using a comparator group of all non-metformin, non-SGLT2 inhibitor glucose-lowering drugs, as previous studies used this approach. Results: In a cohort of 328 150 individuals aged 18 to 64 years, the IR of LEA ranged from 1.5 to 2.4 per 1000 person-years. In as-treated analysis, the estimated hazard of LEA was increased among SGLT2 inhibitor initiators compared to DPP-4 inhibitor initiators (aHR 1.69, 95% CI 1.20-2.38), but not compared to SU initiators (aHR 1.02, 95% CI 0.67-1.55) or non-metformin, non-SGLT2 inhibitor initiators (aHR 1.02, 95% CI 0.54-1.93). Results were consistent in intention-to-treat analysis and across a number of sensitivity analyses. Conclusions: Among commercially insured patients in the United States, our results suggest that initiation of SGLT2 inhibitors may increase the risk of LEA compared to initiation of DPP-4 inhibitors. Contrasting results when comparing SGLT2 inhibitor initiators to DPP-4 inhibitor and SU initiators highlight the importance of choosing appropriate comparator drugs when addressing comparative effectiveness and safety questions that can inform clinical decision-making.

Aims: To examine the outcomes of dipeptidyl peptidase-4 (DPP-4) inhibitor initiation with and without concurrent metformin treatment. Materials and methods: We identified Medicare enrollees initiating a DPP-4 inhibitor, a sulphonylurea or a thiazolidinedione. Using propensity-score-weighted Poisson models, we evaluated 1-year cardiovascular (CV) outcome incidence among initiators of DPP-4 inhibitors versus comparators in subgroups with and without concurrent metformin use, and assessed the interaction between initiation drug and metformin. Outcomes included mortality, non-fatal myocardial infarction (MI), stroke, and a composite outcome. Results: For the DPP-4 inhibitor (n = 13 391) versus sulphonylurea (n = 33 206) comparison, rate differences in composite outcome incidence favoured DPP-4 inhibitors: −2.0/100 person-years among metformin users (95% confidence interval [CI] −2.7 to −1.3) and − 1.0/100 person-years (95% CI −1.8 to −0.2) among metformin non-users. Similar rate difference trends among metformin users and non-users were seen for mortality (−1.5/100 person-years [95% CI −2.1 to −0.9] and −0.7/100 person-years [95% CI −1.4 to 0.0]) and non-fatal MI (−0.5/100 person-years [95% CI −0.8, −0.3] and 0.1/100 person-years [95% CI −0.2 to 0.4]). The interaction between DPP-4 inhibitor initiation and metformin was statistically significant for non-fatal MI (P = 0.008). For the DPP-4 inhibitor (n = 22 210) versus thiazolidinedione (n = 9517) comparison, rate differences in composite outcome incidence for DPP-4 inhibitor initiation were −0.6/100 person-years (95% CI −1.5 to 0.2) among metformin users and 1.0 (95% CI 0.0 to 2.0) among metformin non-users. Similar rate difference trends among metformin users and non-users were seen for mortality (−0.5/100 person-years [95% CI −1.3 to 0.1] and 0.8/100 person-years [95% CI −0.0 to 1.7]) and non-fatal MI (−0.1/100 person-years [95% CI −0.4 to 0.2] and 0.2/100 person-years [95% CI −0.1 to 0.6]). The interaction between DPP-4 inhibitor initiation and metformin was statistically significant for the composite outcome (P = 0.024) and mortality (P = 0.023). Conclusion: Incidence rate differences in multiple CV outcomes appeared more favourable when DPP-4 inhibitor initiation occurred in the presence of metformin, suggesting a possible interaction between DPP-4 inhibitors and metformin.

Aim: The aim of the study was to empirically demonstrate the effect of varying study designs when evaluating the safety of pioglitazone in treating bladder cancer. Methods: We identified Medicare beneficiaries above 65 years of age with diabetes between 2008 and 2015 and with classified exposure (at least two claims within 180 days) to glucose-lowering drugs (GLD), pioglitazone or another drug. The effects of varying the following study design parameters on bladder cancer risk were assessed: use of a new vs existing drug, choice of referent (all non-users and users of GLDs, non-insulin GLDs and DPP-4s) and whether or not censoring accounted for treatment change. We used the Cox proportional hazards model to obtain adjusted HRs and 95% CIs. Results: We included 1,510,212 patients classified as pioglitazone users (N = 135,188) or non-users (N = 1,375,024). Users had more diabetic complications than non-users, but fewer than insulin users. The HR ranged from 1.10 (1.01-1.20) to 1.13 (0.99-1.29) when censoring ignored treatment change, suggesting a weak association or none between pioglitazone and bladder cancer, probably under-estimating risk. However, the HR was 1.20 (1.01-1.42) when cohorts were restricted to new users, censored upon treatment change, and when DPP-4 was used as the referent, suggesting an increased risk of bladder cancer associated with pioglitazone. Conclusions: The continued demand for new GLDs indicates the need for more robust observational methods to improve the value of generating real-world evidence in equipping clinicians to make informed prescribing decisions. Although there is no one-size-fits-all approach, we recommend active comparator new user study designs that compare therapeutically equivalent drugs and account for treatment changes during follow-up to present the least biased comparative safety estimates.

OBJECTIVE A recent study raises concerns that dipeptidyl peptidase 4 inhibitors (DPP4i) are associated with increased risk of inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). We evaluated the association between new use of DPP4i and IBD risk compared with other secondline antihyperglycemics. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS We implemented an active-comparator, new-user cohort design using two U.S. administrative claims databases for commercially insured (MarketScan) and older adult (Medicare fee-for-service, 20% random sample) patients from January 2007 to December 2016.We identified patients, aged ≥18 years, who initiated DPP4i versus sulfonylureas (SUs) or initiated DPP4i versus thiazolidinediones (TZDs) and were without prior diagnosis, treatment, or procedure for IBD. The primary outcome was incident IBD, defined by IBD diagnosis preceded by colonoscopy and biopsy and followed by IBD treatment. We performed propensity score weighting to control for measured baseline confounding, estimated adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs [95% CI]) using weighted Cox proportional hazards models, and used randomeffects meta-analysis models to pool aHRs across cohorts. RESULTS We identified 895,747 eligible patients initiating DPP4i, SU, or TZD; IBD incidence rates ranged from 11.6 to 32.3/100,000 person-years. Over a median treatment duration of 1.09-1.69 years, DPP4i were not associated with increased IBD risk across comparisons. The pooled aHRs for IBD were 0.82 (95% CI 0.41-1.61) when comparing DPP4i (n 5 161,612) to SU (n 5 310,550) and 0.76 (0.46-1.26) when comparing DPP4i (n 5 205,570) to TZD (n 5 87,543). CONCLUSIONS Our population-based cohort study of U.S. adults with diabetes suggests that shortterm DPP4i treatment does not increase IBD risk.

Importance Increases in prescription opioid use in the United States have been attributed to changing prescribing guidelines and attitudes toward pain relief; however, the spread of opioid use within households through drug diversion may also be a contributing factor. Objective To investigate whether individuals living in a household with a prescription opioid user are more likely to initiate prescription opioids themselves, compared with individuals in households with a prescription nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drug (NSAID) user. Design, Setting, and Participants This was a retrospective cohort study using administrative health care claims data from 2000 to 2014 of commercial insurance beneficiaries sharing a health plan with continuous prescription drug coverage, without opioid or NSAID use in the prior year. Enrollees were followed from the date of the first prescription filled by a household member for an eligible opioid or NSAID until initiation of prescription opioids, disenrollment, or administrative censoring after 1 year or the end of follow-up on December 31, 2014. Risk of opioid initiation was derived from inverse probability-weighted (IPW) Kaplan-Meier estimators that adjusted for potential confounders, prognostic factors, and predictors of censoring. Exposure Outpatient pharmacy dispensing of a prescription opioid or prescription NSAID. Main Outcomes and Measures Incident outpatient pharmacy fill for a prescription opioid by a household member. Results From 2000 to 2014, 12 695 280 individuals were exposed to prescription opioids and 6 359 639 to prescription NSAIDS through an index prescription to a household member. The IPW estimated risk of opioid initiation in the subsequent year was 11.83% (95% CI, 11.81%-11.85%) among individuals exposed to prescription opioids in the household, compared with 11.11% (95% CI, 11.09%-11.14%) among individuals exposed to prescription NSAIDs, resulting in a risk difference of 0.71% (95% CI, 0.68%-0.74%). An unmeasured confounder that is modestly associated with the exposure (eg, prevalence difference = 0.9%) and the outcome (eg, risk difference = 0.9) after adjustment for all measured variables could explain our observed estimate of the overall risk difference (0.71%). Conclusions and Relevance Living in a household with a prescription opioid user may increase risk of prescription opioid use, which may reflect both increased access to these products as well as shared risk factors, such as prescriber preference and prescription drug monitoring.

Aims: To compare bladder cancer incidence between patients initiating pioglitazone treatment and patients initiating treatment with dipeptidyl-peptidase-4 inhibitors [DPP-4s] or sulfonylureas. Methods: We identified Medicare beneficiaries aged >65 years who initiated treatment with pioglitazone (N = 38 700), DPP-4s (N = 82 552) or sulfonylureas (N = 126 104) between 2007 and 2014 after at least 6 months without prescriptions for these drug classes. Patients were followed from second prescription until bladder cancer outcome (2 claims within 60 days) using a 6-month induction/latency period, censoring for treatment change, death or end of 2014. We used propensity score-weighted Cox proportional-hazards models to obtain adjusted hazard ratios (aHR) and their 95% confidence intervals. Results: Overall mean age of participants was 75 years and 41% were men. Over a median of 1.2 treatment years, 727 beneficiaries developed bladder cancer. Pioglitazone initiators had an increased incidence of bladder cancer (308 vs 204 [DPP-4s] or 231 [sulfonylureas] per 100 000 person-years; aHR, 1.57 [1.23-2.00] vs DPP-4s and 1.32 [1.02-1.70] vs sulfonylureas). The increased risk emerged within the first 2 years of treatment (aHR, 1.63 [1.22-2.17] vs DPP-4s and 1.32 [0.98-1.78] vs sulfonylureas). If treatment was discontinued within the first 2 years, the risk after 2 years post initiation was attenuated (aHR, 0.89 [0.61-1.28]) compared with patients treated for more than 2 years (aHR, 1.45 [0.93-2.26]) both vs DPP-4s. Findings were consistent across secondary and sensitivity analyses. Conclusions: Pioglitazone was associated with an elevated risk of bladder cancer compared with DPP-4s and sulfonylureas. The elevated risk emerged within the first 2 years of treatment and was attenuated after discontinuing. Pioglitazone's relative effectiveness should be weighed against a small absolute increase in risk of bladder cancer.

OBJECTIVE: Recent large trials yield conflicting results on the association between incretin-based therapies (IBTs) and diabetic retinopathy (DR). We examined whether IBTs increase DR risk compared with other antihyperglycemics. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: We implementedan active comparator, new-user cohort design using anationwide 20% random sample of fee-for-service U.S. Medicare beneficiaries aged 65 years or older with Parts A, B, and D coverage between 2007 and 2015. We identified the following cohorts without prior treatment for retinopathy: dipeptidyl peptidase 4 inhibitors (DPP4i) versus sulfonylureas (SU), DPP4i versus thiazolidinediones (TZD), glucagon-like peptide-1receptor agonists (GLP1RA)versus long-acting insulin (LAI), and GLP1RA versus TZD. Primary outcome was advanced diabetic retinopathy requiring treatment (ADRRT), defined as a procedure code for retinopathy treatment. Incident diabetic retinopathy (IDR), identified by a diagnosis code, was a secondary outcome. We estimated propensity scores to balance confounders and adjusted hazard ratios (95% CI) using weighted Cox proportional hazards models. RESULTS: We identified 213, 652 eligible patients. During a median duration of 0.58 to 0.87 years across comparisons, with a rate from 6.0 to 12.8 per 1,000 person-years, IBTs were not associated with increased ADRRT or IDR risk. The adjusted hazard ratios (95% CI) for ADRRT were 0.91 (0.79-1.04) by comparing DPP4i to SU (n = 39,292 and 87,073); 0.91 (0.75-1.11), DPP4i to TZD (n = 51, 410 and 22, 231); 0.50 (0.39-0.65), GLP1RA to LAI (n = 9, 561 and 82, 849); and 0.75 (0.53-1.06), GLP1RA to TZD (n = 10, 355 and 27, 345). CONCLUSIONS: Our population-based cohort study of older U.S. adults with diabetes suggests that IBTs used for approximately 1 year do not increase the DR risk.

OBJECTIVE To examine whether dipeptidyl peptidase 4 inhibitors (DPP-4I) increase acute pancreatitis risk in older patients and whether the association varies by age, sex, and history of cardiovascular disease (CVD). RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS We conducted a cohort study of DPP-4I initiators versus thiazolidinedione (TZD) or sulfonylurea initiators using U.S.Medicare beneficiaries, 2007-2014. Eligible initiators were aged 66 years or older without history of pancreatic disease or alcohol-related diseases. Patients were followed up for hospitalization due to acute pancreatitis and censored at 90 days after treatment changes. Weighted Cox models were used to estimate the hazard ratio (HR) for acute pancreatitis. Analyses were performed overall as well as within subgroups defined by age, sex, and CVD history. RESULTS We found no increased risk of acute pancreatitis comparing 49,374 DPP-4I initiators to 132,223 sulfonylurea initiators (weighted HR 1.01; 95% CI 0.83-1.24) and comparing 57,301 DPP-4I initiators to 32,612 TZD initiators (weighted HR 1.11; 95% CI 0.76-1.62). Age and sex did not modify the association. Among patients with CVD, acute pancreatitis incidence was elevated in initiators of DPP-4I and sulfonylurea (2.3 and 2.4 per 1,000 person-years, respectively) but not in TZD initiators (1.5). Among patients with CVD, higher risk of acute pancreatitis was observed with DPP- 4I compared with TZD (weighted HR 1.84; 95% CI 1.02-3.35) but not compared with sulfonylurea. CONCLUSIONS Our study provides evidence that DPP-4I is not associated with an increased risk of acute pancreatitis in older adults overall. The positive association observed in patients with CVD could be due to chance or bias but merits further investigation.

Purpose: Differential use of screening mammography may lead to biased detection of breast cancer. This study aimed to compare receipt of screening mammography and the incidence of screen-detected breast cancer between metformin and sulfonylurea initiators. Methods: We used 2006-2014 US Medicare claims to identify initiators of metformin or sulfonylurea aged 65+ years continuously enrolled in Parts A/B for ≥2 years pre-initiation and ≥2 years post-initiation. We reported frequencies of screening mammograms and screen-detected breast cancer in 1 year pre-initiation among all cohort members and in 1 year post-initiation among cancer-free cohort members. Weighted screening risk differences (RDs) were estimated comparing metformin to sulfonylurea group. Results: We identified 41,436 and 13,367 initiators of metformin and sulfonylurea, 35% and 24% of which had ≥1 screening mammogram in 1 year pre-initiation (weighted RD: 6 percentage points; 95% CI: 5 to 7), respectively. The weighted RD for screen-detected breast cancer associated with metformin was 0.00 percentage points (95% CI: -0.09 to 0.09). Among cancer-free cohort members, metformin initiators had 5 percentage points (95% CI: 4 to 6) and 0.11 percentage points (95% CI: -0.02 to 0.23) absolute risk excess of screening mammography and screen-detected breast cancer in 1 year post-initiation, compared with sulfonylurea initiators, respectively. Conclusions: Metformin initiators were more likely to receive screening mammograms than sulfonylurea initiators pre- and post-initiation, indicating possible detection bias due to differential screening mammography. Researchers should be aware of the potential for more screening mammograms pre- and post-initiation when interpreting the findings of metformin on breast cancer incidence.

Background: Several observational studies have reported that metformin may be associated with reduced risk of breast cancer, however, many of these studies were affected by time-related biases such as immortal time bias and time-window bias. This study aimed to examine the relative risk of breast cancer for older women initiating metformin versus sulfonylureas while avoiding such biases. Methods: The study cohort consisted of women aged 65+ who initiated monotherapy with metformin (n = 45,900) or sulfonylureas (n = 13,904) and were free of cancer and renal disease within 6 months before treatment initiation using 2007-2012 US Medicare claims data. We followed treatment initiators for incident breast cancer, and estimated hazard ratios using weighted Cox models. Unmeasured confounding by body mass index and smoking was further adjusted by propensity score calibration using external information from Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey 2006-2009 panels. Results: During 58,835 and 16,366 person-years of follow-up, 385 initiators of metformin treatment and 95 of sulfonylurea were diagnosed with breast cancer. Metformin initiators did not have a reduced risk of breast cancer compared with sulfonylurea initiators (hazard ratio: 1.2, 95% confidence interval: 0.94, 1.6). Externally controlling for body mass index and smoking did not affect the estimates. Conclusion: The findings of this study provide no support for a reduced risk of breast cancer after initiation of metformin compared with a clinical alternative in older women. This study is limited by the relatively short follow-up time and we cannot exclude the possible benefits of long-Time metformin use on breast cancer risk.

Aim: To compare the cardiovascular (CV) risk associated with dipeptidyl peptidase-4 (DPP-4) inhibitors relative to sulphonylureas (SUs) and thiazolidinediones (TZDs). Methods: During 2007 to 2013, using Medicare data for beneficiaries aged >65 years, we identified the following 2 cohorts of new-users, who had not been exposed to the drugs being compared in the 6 months before initiation: (1) DPP-4 inhibitor vs SU initiators and (2) DPP-4 inhibitor vs TZD initiators. Using propensity-score-adjusted Cox models accounting for competing risk by death, we estimated the hazard ratios (HRs), risk differences and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for myocardial infarction (MI), stroke, hospitalization for heart failure (HF), and a combined outcome (MI, stroke, all-cause mortality). Results: In the DPP-4 inhibitor vs SU comparison, there were 30 130 DPP-4 inhibitor initiators and 68 382 SU initiators. Their mean age was 75 years, 41% were men and 55% had a baseline CV condition. The HR for the composite outcome was 0.75 (95% CI 0.72-0.79) over a median treatment duration of 1 year, but the 1-year risks of MI were 1.00 (95% CI 0.89-1.12) and 1.47 (95% CI 1.38-1.56) per 100 patients for DPP-4 inhibitors and SUs, respectively, and the corresponding stroke risks were 0.98 (95% CI 0.87-1.10) and 1.09 (95% CI 1.01-1.17). For the DPP-4 inhibitor vs TZD comparison, there were 20 596 DPP-4 inhibitor initiators and 13 526 TZD initiators without previous HF. Their mean age was 74 years, 42% were men and 30% had a baseline CV event. The composite outcome HR was 0.94 (95% CI 0.86-1.02) over a median treatment duration of 1 year. The 1-year risk for MI was ~0.90 and for stroke it was ~0.80 per 100 patients in both DPP-4 inhibitor and TZD initiators. Conclusion: Although limited by the short treatment period, the present study suggests there is no increased short-term risk of MI, stroke or HF with DPP-4 inhibitors vs SUs/TZDs.