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Microclimate research gained renewed interest over the last decade and its importance for many ecological processes is increasingly being recognized. Consequently, the call for high-resolution microclimatic temperature grids across broad spatial extents is becoming more pressing to improve ecological models. Here, we provide a new set of open-access bioclimatic variables for microclimate temperatures of European forests at 25 × 25 m2 resolution. ISSN:1354-1013 ISSN:1365-2486

In the age of big data, scientific progress is fundamentally limited by our capacity to extract critical information. We show that recasting multispecies distribution modeling as a ranking problem allows analyzing ubiquitous citizen-science observations with unprecedented efficiency. Based on 6.7M observations, we jointly modeled the distributions of 2477 plant species and species aggregates across Switzerland, using deep neural networks (DNNs). Compared to commonly-used approaches, multispecies DNNs predicted species distributions and especially community composition more accurately. Moreover, their setup allowed investigating understudied aspects of ecology: including seasonal variations of observation probability explicitly allowed approximating flowering phenology, especially for small, herbaceous species; reweighting predictions to mirror cover-abundance allowed mapping potentially canopy-dominant tree species nationwide; and projecting DNNs into the future allowed assessing how distributions, phenology, and dominance may change. Given their skill and their versatility, multispecies DNNs can refine our understanding of the distribution of plants and well-sampled taxa in general.

SummaryThe plant metabolome encompasses the biochemical mechanisms through which evolutionary and ecological processes shape plant form and function1,2. However, while the metabolome should thus be an important component of plant life-history variation3, we know little about how it varies across the plant kingdom. Here, we use the plant functional trait concept4– a powerful framework for describing plant form and function5–7– to interpret leaf metabolome variation among 457 tropical and 339 temperate plant species. Distilling metabolite chemistry into five discriminant metabolic functional traits reveals that plants vary along two major axes of leaf metabolic specialization – a leaf chemical defense spectrum and an expression of leaf longevity. These axes are qualitatively consistent for tropical and temperate species, with many trait combinations being viable. However, axes of leaf metabolic specialization vary orthogonally to life-history strategies described by widely used functional traits5–7, while being at least equally important to them. Our findings question classical trait6and plant defense8theory that predicts relationships between the leaf chemical phenotype, plant productivity, and pace of life. Moreover, we show that metabolic functional traits describe unique dimensions of plant life-history variation that are complementary to, and independent from, those captured by existing plant functional traits.

1. Theory predicts that a large fraction of phytochemical diversity—the richness of individual chemical compounds produced by plants—governs the complexity of interactions between plants and their herbivores. While the effect of specific classes of chemical compounds on plant resistance against herbivores has been largely documented, the effect of community-level variation in phytochemical diversity on plant–herbivore interactions has so far received minimal consideration. 2. We hypothesized that plant communities bearing on average higher levels of phytochemical diversity should sustain lower herbivory rates, overall. Yet, the magnitude of this effect could vary across different environmental conditions, potentially because of climate-mediated effects on phytochemical production and changes in herbivore community richness and composition. 3. To address these hypotheses, we used previous knowledge of species-level phytochemical make-up for more than 400 plant species of the Swiss Alps. Using common garden experiments, we estimated season-wide herbivore damage on low (average 3,500 unique molecules) and high (average 4,500 unique molecules) phytochemical diversity plant communities that were planted in the colline, mountain and alpine vegetation sites along two elevation transects in the Alps. 4. We found that high phytochemical diversity plant communities showed reduced levels of herbivore damage in the colline (low elevation) sites, but this pattern reversed in the alpine (high elevation) sites. Our results suggest that the outcome of phytochemical diversity on plant–herbivore interactions depends on the characteristics of the local herbivore communities, together with trade-offs between chemical defences and other plant traits (i.e. physical defences and plant palatability). 5. Synthesis. Phytochemical diversity is a key component of functional diversity, influencing community composition and dynamics. We show that the effect of phytochemical diversity on herbivory is environmental-dependent, generating ecological switches when moving from low to high elevation. Through upward movement of plants under climate change, phytochemical community structure will be likely modified, ultimately disrupting local community assembly processes. ISSN:0022-0477

Aim Ecological gradients are expected to be associated with structural rewiring of species interaction networks. The study of network structures along geographic and ecological gradients, however, remains marginal because documenting species interactions at multiple sites is a methodological challenge. Here, we aimed to study the structural variation in plant–herbivore interaction networks along elevational gradients using molecular metabarcoding. Location European Alps. Taxon Plant and Orthopteran herbivores. Methods We used a standardized DNA metabarcoding method applied to Orthopteran faeces to document the structure of 48 networks of species interactions across six elevational gradients. We examined how structural properties of plant–Orthoptera networks reflecting specialization and robustness vary with elevation. We compared observed variation to null models to account for differences in network size. Results We found an increase in the levels of generality and nestedness with decreasing temperature, and the correlation was stronger than in null models. These relationships corresponded to greater robustness and reduced the importance of specific keystone species in alpine habitats compared to lowland grasslands. Main conclusions In cold environments, plant–herbivore networks are wired in a way that may reinforce the resilience of the system to species extinction. Documenting ecological networks along ecological gradients allows a better understanding of the influence of climate on the structure of ecological communities. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons Ltd. ISSN:0305-0270 ISSN:1365-2699

Understanding the ecological rules structuring the organization of species interactions is a prerequisite to predicting how ecosystems respond to environmental changes. While the ecological determinants of single networks have been documented, it remains unclear whether network ecological rules are conserved along spatial and environmental gradients. To address this gap, we reconstructed 48 plant–herbivore interaction networks along six elevation gradients in the Central European Alps in Switzerland, using DNA metabarcoding on orthoptera feces. We developed hypotheses on the ecological mechanisms expected to structure interaction networks, based on plant phylogeny, plant abundance, leaf toughness, leaf nitrogen content and plant metabolomics. We show that plant phylogenetic relationships and species abundance have the greatest explanatory power regarding the structure of the ecological networks. Moreover, we found that leaf nitrogen content is a key determinant of interactions in warmer environments, while phenolic compounds and terpenoids are more important in colder environments, suggesting that determinants of species interactions can shift along environmental gradients. With this work, we propose an approach to study the mechanisms that structure the way species interact with each other between bioregions and ecosystems.

Predictions from species distribution models (SDMs) that rely on presence-only data are strongly influenced by how pseudo-absences are derived. However, which strategies to generate pseudo-absences give rise to faithful SDMs in complex mountainous terrain, and whether species-specific or generic strategies perform better remain open questions.Here, across 500 plant species, we investigated comprehensively how predictions of SDMs at a 93 m spatial resolution are influenced by pseudo-absence strategies, using the complex topography of the Swiss mountains as a model system. We used five generic (random, equal-stratified, proportional-stratified, target, density) and three species-specific (target specific, density specific and geographic specific) approaches to derive pseudo-absence data. We conducted performance tests for each of our eight strategies in combination with (a) spatial bias, generated within our occurrence dataset on sites with highest sampling density, to investigate how this common bias problem influences the performance of pseudo-absence sampling strategies, and (b) a new approach to reduce model extrapolation in environmental space by including background data from all environmental conditions of the study area. SDMs were evaluated against an independent and well-sampled dataset of true presences and absences.The random, the density (generic), and the geographic specific (species-specific) strategies consistently performed best, even in cases of strong spatial sampling bias in the occurrence data. Including a background of environmentally stratified pseudo-absences improved predictions of species distributions towards environmental extremes, and significantly reduced spatial extrapolations of model predictions in environmental space.Our results indicate that both generic and species-specific pseudo-absence strategies allow estimating robust SDMs and we provide clear recommendations which strategies to choose in complex terrain and when presence data are prone to high sampling bias. In datasets with strong sampling bias, most pseudo-absence strategies produce extrapolation problems and we additionally recommend environmentally stratified pseudo-absences in these cases. Overall, in species rich datasets the use of complex and computationally demanding, species-specific pseudo-absence strategies may not always be justified compared to simpler generic approaches.

Ecological research heavily relies on coarse-gridded climate data based on standardized temperature measurements recorded at 2 m height in open landscapes. However, many organisms experience environmental conditions that differ substantially from those captured by these macroclimatic (i.e. free air) temperature grids. In forests, the tree canopy functions as a thermal insulator and buffers sub-canopy microclimatic conditions, thereby affecting biological and ecological processes. To improve the assessment of climatic conditions and climate-change-related impacts on forest-floor biodiversity and functioning, high-resolution temperature grids reflecting forest microclimates are thus urgently needed. Combining more than 1200 time series of in situ near-surface forest temperature with topographical, biological and macroclimatic variables in a machine learning model, we predicted the mean monthly offset between sub-canopy temperature at 15 cm above the surface and free-air temperature over the period 2000-2020 at a spatial resolution of 25 m across Europe. This offset was used to evaluate the difference between microclimate and macroclimate across space and seasons and finally enabled us to calculate mean annual and monthly temperatures for European forest understories. We found that sub-canopy air temperatures differ substantially from free-air temperatures, being on average 2.1°C (standard deviation ± 1.6°C) lower in summer and 2.0°C higher (±0.7°C) in winter across Europe. Additionally, our high-resolution maps expose considerable microclimatic variation within landscapes, not captured by the gridded macroclimatic products. The provided forest sub-canopy temperature maps will enable future research to model below-canopy biological processes and patterns, as well as species distributions more accurately. ispartof: GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY vol:27 issue:23 pages:6307-6319 ispartof: location:England status: published

International audience; Although the importance of edaphic factors and habitat structure for plant growth and survival is known, both are often neglected in favor of climatic drivers when investigating the spatial patterns of plant species and diversity. Yet, especially in mountain ecosystems with complex topography, missing edaphic and habitat components may be detrimental for a sound understanding of biodiversity distribution. Here, we compare the relative importance of climate, soil and land cover variables when predicting the distributions of 2,616 vascular plant species in the European Alps, representing approximately two‐thirds of all European flora. Using presence‐only data, we built point‐process models (PPMs) to relate species observations to different combinations of covariates. We evaluated the PPMs through block cross‐validations and assessed the independent contributions of climate, soil, and land cover covariates to predict plant species distributions using an innovative predictive partitioning approach. We found climate to be the most influential driver of spatial patterns in plant species with a relative influence of ~58.5% across all species, with decreasing importance from low to high elevations. Soil (~20.1%) and land cover (~21.4%), overall, were less influential than climate, but increased in importance along the elevation gradient. Furthermore, land cover showed strong local effects in lowlands, while the contribution of soil stabilized at mid‐elevations. The decreasing influence of climate with elevation is explained by increasing endemism, and the fact that climate becomes more homogeneous as habitat diversity declines at higher altitudes. In contrast, soil predictors were found to follow the opposite trend. Additionally, at low elevations, human‐mediated land cover effects appear to reduce the importance of climate predictors. We conclude that soil and land cover are, like climate, principal drivers of plant species distribution in the European Alps. While disentangling their effects remains a challenge, future studies can benefit markedly by including soil and land cover effects when predicting species distributions.

To cope with environmental challenges, plants produce a wide diversity of phytochemicals, which are also the source of numerous medicines. Despite decades of research in chemical ecology, we still lack an understanding of the organization of plant chemical diversity across species and ecosystems. To address this challenge, we hypothesized that molecular diversity is not only related to species diversity, but also constrained by trophic, climatic, and topographical factors. We screened the metabolome of 416 vascular plant species encompassing the entire alpine elevation range and four alpine bioclimatic regions in order to characterize their phytochemical diversity. We show that by coupling phylogenetic information, topographic, edaphic, and climatic variables, we predict phytochemical diversity, and its inherent composition, of plant communities throughout landscape. Spatial mapping of phytochemical diversity further revealed that plant assemblages found in low to midelevation habitats, with more alkaline soils, possessed greater phytochemical diversity, whereas alpine habitats possessed higher phytochemical endemism. Altogether, we present a general tool that can be used for predicting hotspots of phytochemical diversity in the landscape, independently of plant species taxonomic identity. Such an approach offers promising perspectives in both drug discovery programs and conservation efforts worldwide. (© 2021 National Academy of Sciences.) ISSN:0027-8424 ISSN:1091-6490

Mountain ecology under climate change Climate warming causes shifts in the distributions of organisms and different organisms may move at different rates, resulting in changes in the composition and functioning of ecological communities. These effects are rarely considered in forecasts about the effects of climate change on biodiversity. Using experimental translocations, Descombes et al. investigated how differential upslope migration in alpine plants and their insect herbivores affects community interactions. Lowland herbivores modify the three-dimensional vegetation structure at higher altitudes, and this modified vegetation structure favors the coexistence of plant species, especially by favoring small-stature species. Reorganized trophic interactions will play an important role in driving plant community changes under future climate change. Science , this issue p. 1469

Current analyses and predictions of spatially explicit patterns and processes in ecology most often rely on climate data interpolated from standardized weather stations. This interpolated climate data represents long-term average thermal conditions at coarse spatial resolutions only. Hence, many climate-forcing factors that operate at fine spatiotemporal resolutions are overlooked. This is particularly important in relation to effects of observation height (e.g. vegetation, snow and soil characteristics) and in habitats varying in their exposure to radiation, moisture and wind (e.g. topography, radiative forcing or cold-air pooling). Since organisms living close to the ground relate more strongly to these microclimatic conditions than to free-air temperatures, microclimatic ground and near-surface data are needed to provide realistic forecasts of the fate of such organisms under anthropogenic climate change, as well as of the functioning of the ecosystems they live in. To fill this critical gap, we highlight a call for temperature time series submissions to SoilTemp, a geospatial database initiative compiling soil and near-surface temperature data from all over the world. Currently, this database contains time series from 7,538 temperature sensors from 51 countries across all key biomes. The database will pave the way toward an improved global understanding of microclimate and bridge the gap between the available climate data and the climate at fine spatiotemporal resolutions relevant to most organisms and ecosystem processes. ispartof: GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY vol:26 issue:11 pages:6616-6629 ispartof: location:England status: published

Above- and below-ground herbivory are key ecosystem processes that can be substantially altered by environmental changes. However, direct comparisons of the coupled variations of above- and below-ground herbivore communities along elevation gradients remain sparse. Here, we studied the variation in assemblages of two dominant groups of herbivores, namely, aboveground orthoptera and belowground nematodes, in grasslands along six elevation gradients in the Swiss Alps. By examining variations of community properties of herbivores and their food plants along montane clines, we sought to determine whether the structure and functional properties of these taxonomic groups change with elevation. We found that orthoptera decreased in both species richness and abundance with elevation. In contrast with aboveground herbivores, the taxonomic richness and the total abundance of nematode did not covary with elevation. We further found a stronger shift in above- than below-ground functional properties along elevation, where the mandibular strength of orthoptera matched a shift in leaf toughness. Nematodes showed a weaker pattern of declined sedentary behavior and increased mobility with elevation. In contrast to the direct exposal of aboveground organisms to the surface climate, conditions may be buffered belowground, which together with the influence of edaphic factors on the biodiversity of soil biota, may explain the differences between elevational patterns of above- and below-ground communities. Our study emphasizes the necessity to consider both the above- and below-ground compartments to understand the impact of current and future climatic variation on ecosystems, from a functional perspective of species interactions. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (10.1007/s00442-020-04778-7) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Predicting variation in plant functional traits related to anti-herbivore defences remains a major challenge in ecological research, considering that multiple traits have evolved in response to both abiotic and biotic conditions. Therefore, understanding variation in plant anti-herbivore defence traits requires studying their expression along steep environmental gradients, such as along elevation, where multiple biotic and abiotic factors co-vary. We expand on plant defence theory and propose a novel conceptual framework to address the sources of variations of plant resistance traits at the community level. We analysed elevation patterns of within-community trait dissimilarity using the RaoQ index, and the community-weighted-mean (CWM) index, on several plant functional traits: plant height, specific leaf area (SLA), leaf-dry-matter-content (LDMC), silicium content, presence of trichomes, carbon-to-nitrogen ratio (CN) and total secondary metabolite richness. We found that at high elevation, where harsh environmental conditions persist, community functional convergence is dictated by traits relating to plant growth (plant height and SLA), while divergence arises for traits relating resource-use (LDMC). At low elevation, where greater biotic pressure occurs, we found a combination of random (plant height), convergence (metabolite richness) and divergence patterns (silicium content). This framework thus combines community assembly rules of ecological filtering and niche partition with plant defence hypotheses to unravel the relationship between environmental variations, biotic pressure and the average phenotype of plants within a community.

Invasive alien plants (IAP) are a threat to biodiversity worldwide. Understanding and anticipating invasions allow for more efficient management. In this regard, predicting potential invasion risks by IAPs is essential to support conservation planning into areas of high conservation value (AHCV) such as sites exhibiting exceptional botanical richness, assemblage of rare, and threatened and/or endemic plant species. Here, we identified AHCV in Georgia, a country showing high plant richness, and assessed the susceptibility of these areas to colonization by IAPs under present and future climatic conditions. We used actual protected areas and areas of high plant endemism (identified using occurrences of 114 Georgian endemic plant species) as proxies for AHCV. Then, we assessed present and future potential distribution of 27 IAPs using species distribution models under four climate change scenarios and stacked single‐species potential distribution into a consensus map representing IAPs richness. We evaluated present and future invasion risks in AHCV using IAPs richness as a metric of susceptibility. We show that the actual protected areas cover only 9.4% of the areas of high plant endemism in Georgia. IAPs are presently located at lower elevations around the large urban centers and in western Georgia. We predict a shift of IAPs toward eastern Georgia and higher altitudes and an increased susceptibility of AHCV to IAPs under future climate change. Our study provides a good baseline for decision makers and stakeholders on where and how resources should be invested in the most efficient way to protect Georgia's high plant richness from IAPs., Ecology and Evolution, 8 (9), ISSN:2045-7758

Summary Plants protect themselves against herbivore attacks through a myriad of physical structures and toxic secondary metabolites. Together with abiotic factors, herbivores are expected to modulate plant defence strategies within plant assemblages. Because the abundance of insect herbivore decreases in colder environments, the palatability of plants in communities at higher elevation should shift in response to both abiotic and biotic factors. We inventoried grasshopper communities to document changes in herbivore abundance along elevation gradients and quantified associated shifts in plant palatability. We measured plant palatability by measuring the growth of Spodoptera littoralis generalist caterpillars fed with the leaves of 172 plant species. We related plant palatability to leaf traits and elevation at the species and community levels. In congruence with the decrease in grasshopper abundance with elevation, we found that the mean palatability level of plant communities increases with elevation. In addition, plant palatability was negatively associated with the community-weighted mean of leaf dry matter content. At the species level, plants with high carbon-to-nitrogen ratio were less palatable, while we found no effect of species mean elevation on plant palatability. Synthesis. Our results suggest that plant communities at higher elevation are composed of species that are generally more palatable for insect herbivores. Shift in plant palatability with elevation may thus be the outcome of a relaxation of the in situ herbivore pressure and changes in abiotic conditions.

Monitoring and species distribution models (SDMs) are increasingly used to support conservation planning but are rarely projected at a very high resolution for conservation management. In this study, we compared the population distribution and size of five invasive plant species along an 18 km alluvial system in Switzerland, over a period of 11 years. Exhaustive inventories of past (2001) to current (2012) populations showed a massive increase in invaded areas over the eleven years. Impatiens glandulifera and Reynoutria japonica were the species with the largest increases in population number and size. The ecological preferences of each species were then modelled at 1 m resolution, using environmental variables expressing topography, disturbances, dispersal, soil texture and light availability. SDMs successfully depicted the niches at very high resolution. Some of the important predictors (e.g., canopy density, distance to river) would have been unhelpful at a coarser resolution. From these very-high-resolution models, we predicted the potential distribution and abundance of species and derived two indices indicating the amount of habitat still available for future species colonisation, crucial information for management. Large, empty areas were predicted to be suitable for each species, suggesting that the observed increase in population size may continue in the future. The two proposed range-filling indices and abundance models may be used efficiently in future studies at very fine resolution to prioritise eradication efforts in previously invaded areas and controls in areas at high risk of invasion. To our knowledge, this is the first study investigating the efficiency of SDMs to predict invasions at such a fine resolution.

Plant taxonomic and phylogenetic composition of assemblages are known to shift along environmental gradients, but whether the rate of species turnover is regular or not (e.g., accelerations in particular sections of the gradient) remains poorly documented. Understanding how rates of assemblage turnover vary along gradients is crucial to forecast where climate change could promote the fastest changes within extant communities. Here we analysed turnover rates of plant assemblages along a 2500 m elevation gradient in the Swiss Western Alps. We found a peak of turnover rate between 1800 and 2200 m indicating an acceleration of grassland compositional changes at the transition between subalpine and alpine belts. In parallel, we found a peak in phylogenetic turnover rate in Poales between 1700 m and 1900 and Super-Rosids between 1900 and 2300 m. Our results suggest that changes in abiotic or biotic conditions near the human-modified treeline constitute a strong barrier for many grassland plant species, which share analogous elevation range limits. We propose that this vegetation zone of high ecological transitions over short geographical distances should show the fastest community responses to climate change from the breakdown of barrier across ecotones.

We develop a spatially explicit model of diversification based on palaeohabitat to explore the predictions of four major hypotheses potentially explaining the latitudinal diversity gradient (LDG), namely, the ‘time-area’, ‘tropical niche conservatism’, ‘ecological limits’ and ‘evolutionary speed’ hypotheses. We compare simulation outputs to observed diversity gradients in the global reef fish fauna. Our simulations show that these hypotheses are non-mutually exclusive and that their relative influence depends on the time scale considered. Simulations suggest that reef habitat dynamics produced the LDG during deep geological time, while ecological constraints shaped the modern LDG, with a strong influence of the reduction in the latitudinal extent of tropical reefs during the Neogene. Overall, this study illustrates how mechanistic models in ecology and evolution can provide a temporal and spatial understanding of the role of speciation, extinction and dispersal in generating biodiversity patterns.

ISSN:0269-8463 ISSN:1365-2435

Species currently track suitable abiotic and biotic conditions under ongoing climate change. Adjustments of trophic interactions may provide a mechanism for population persistence, an option that is rarely included in model projections. Here, we model the future distribution, of butterflies in the western Alps of Switzerland under climate change, simulating potential diet expansion resulting from adaptive behavior or new host opportunities. We projected the distribution of 60 butterfly and 298 plant species with species distribution models (SDMs) under three climate change scenarios. From known host plants, we allowed a potential diet expansion based on phylogenetic constraints. We assessed whether diet expansion could reduce the rate of expected regional species extinction under climate change. We found that the risk of species extinctions decreased with a concave upward decreasing shape when expanding the host plant range. A diet expansion to even a few phylogenetically closely related host plants would significantly decrease extinction rates. Yet, even when considering expansion toward all plant species available in the study area, the overall regional extinction risk would remain high. Ecological or evolutionary shifts to new host plants may attenuate extinction risk, but the severe decline of suitable abiotic conditions is still expected to drive many species to local extinction.

International audience; AimIn interaction with past climate changes, it is likely that plate tectonics contributed to the shaping of current global species diversity, but so far this has not been statistically quantified at the global level. Here, we tested whether plate tectonics since the breakup of Gondwana left an imprint on current patterns of species richness of amphibians, birds and mammals. LocationGlobal. MethodsWe reconstructed the absolute positions of continental plates since the Early Cretaceous and used this information to derive variables of latitudinal shifts and potential exchanges among landmasses that could have modulated species richness. Using a multi-model inference approach combining both contemporary and historical variables, we quantified the relative importance of variables related to plate tectonics in explaining the spatial variation of the richness of amphibians, birds and mammals. Next, we employed a moving window approach to test whether plate tectonics left a more marked imprint in specific regions. ResultsPlatetectonics left an imprint on current patterns of vertebrate species richness in geologically singular regions, especially in the Indo-Australian Archipelago and the region comprising eastern Africa and Madagascar. For birds and mammals, but not amphibians, we found a marked contrast in species richness across Australia and Southeast Asia and eastern Africa and Madagascar associated with plate tectonics. Moreover, the relationship between species richness and plate tectonics varied across taxonomic orders for birds and mammals. Main conclusionsWhile no general imprint of plate tectonics was detected at the global scale, our regional analysis highlighted a substantial role of geodynamics in shaping current patterns of vertebrate species richness in Southeast Asia and Madagascar. Future studies should integrate the full range of processes associated with plate tectonics, including orogeny, not considered here.

International audience; Coral reefs and their associated fauna are largely impacted by ongoing climate change. Unravelling species responses to past climatic variations might provide clues on the consequence of ongoing changes. Here, we tested the relationship between changes in sea surface temperature and sea levels during the Quaternary and present-day distributions of coral reef fish species. We investigated whether species-specific responses are associated with life-history traits. We collected a database of coral reef fish distribution together with life-history traits for the Indo-Pacific Ocean. We ran species distribution models (SDMs) on 3,725 tropical reef fish species using contemporary environmental factors together with a variable describing isolation from stable coral reef areas during the Quaternary. We quantified the variance explained independently by isolation from stable areas in the SDMs and related it to a set of species traits including body size and mobility. The variance purely explained by isolation from stable coral reef areas on the distribution of extant coral reef fish species largely varied across species. We observed a triangular relationship between the contribution of isolation from stable areas in the SDMs and body size. Species, whose distribution is more associated with historical changes, occurred predominantly in the Indo-Australian archipelago, where the mean size of fish assemblages is the lowest. Our results suggest that the legacy of habitat changes of the Quaternary is still detectable in the extant distribution of many fish species, especially those with small body size and the most sedentary. Because they were the least able to colonize distant habitats in the past, fish species with smaller body size might have the most pronounced lags in tracking ongoing climate change.

International audience; Identifying the main determinants of tropical marine biodiversity is essential for devising appropriate conservation measures mitigating the ongoing degradation of coral reef habitats. Based on a gridded distribution database and phylogenetic information, we compared the phylogenetic structure of assemblages for three tropical reef fish families (Labridae: wrasses, Pomacentridae: damselfishes and Chaetodontidae: butterflyfishes) using the net relatedness (NRI) and nearest taxon (NTI) indices. We then related these indices to contemporary and historical environmental conditions of coral reefs using spatial regression analyses. Higher levels of phylogenetic clustering were found for fish assemblages in the Indo‐Australian Archipelago (IAA), and more particularly when considering the NTI index. The phylogenetic structure of the Pomacentridae, and to a lower extent of the Chaeotodontidae and Labridae, was primarily associated with the location of refugia during the Quaternary period. Phylogenetic clustering in the IAA may partly result from vicariance events associated with coral reef fragmentation during the glacial periods of the Quaternary. Variation in the patterns among fish families further suggest that dispersal abilities may have interacted with past habitat availability in shaping the phylogenetic structure of tropical reef fish assemblages.

Aim High intra specific genetic diversity is necessary for species adaptation to novel environments under climate change but species tracking suitable conditions are losing alleles through successive founder events during range shift. Here we investigated the relationship between range shift since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and extant population genetic diversity across multiple plant species to understand variability in species responses. Location The circumpolar Arctic and northern temperate alpine ranges. Methods We estimated the climatic niches of 30 cold adapted plant species using range maps coupled with species distribution models and hindcasted species suitable areas to reconstructions of the mid Holocene and LGM climates. We computed the species specific migration distances from the species glacial refugia to their current distribution and correlated distances to extant genetic diversity in 1295 populations. Differential responses among species were related to life history traits. Results We found a negative association between inferred migration distances from refugia and genetic diversities in 25 species but only 11 had statistically significant negative slopes. The relationships between inferred distance and population genetic diversity were steeper for insect pollinated species than wind pollinated species but the difference among pollination system was marginally independent from phylogenetic autocorrelation. Main conclusion The relationships between inferred migration distances and genetic diversities in 11 species independent from current isolation indicate that past range shifts were associated with a genetic bottleneck effect with an average of 21 loss of genetic diversity per 1000 km-1. In contrast the absence of relationship in many species also indicates that the response is species specific and may be modulated by plant pollination strategies or result from more complex historical contingencies than those modelled here.

International audience; Coral bleaching events threaten coral reef habitats globally and cause severe declines of local biodiversity and productivity.Related to high sea surface temperatures (SST), bleaching events are expected to increase as a consequenceof future global warming. However, response to climate change is still uncertain as future low-latitude climatic conditionshave no present-day analogue. Sea surface temperatures during the Eocene epoch were warmer than forecastedchanges for the coming century, and distributions of corals during the Eocene may help to inform models forecastingthe future of coral reefs. We coupled contemporary and Eocene coral occurrences with information on their respectiveclimatic conditions to model the thermal niche of coral reefs and its potential response to projected climate change.We found that under the RCP8.5 climate change scenario, the global suitability for coral reefs may increase up to 16%by 2100, mostly due to improved suitability of higher latitudes. In contrast, in its current range, coral reef suitabilitymay decrease up to 46% by 2100. Reduction in thermal suitability will be most severe in biodiversity hotspots, especiallyin the Indo-Australian Archipelago. Our results suggest that many contemporary hotspots for coral reefs,including those that have been refugia in the past, spatially mismatch with future suitable areas for coral reefs posingchallenges to conservation actions under climate change.