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Policymakers’ incentives during election campaigns can lead to decisions that significantly affect deforestation. Yet this is rarely studied. For Brazil's Atlantic Forest, a highly biodiverse tropical forest, we link federal‐and‐state as well as municipal elections to annual deforestation between 1991 and 2014. Across 2253 municipalities, those with higher deforestation see a significant rise in deforestation during federal‐and‐state election years. Municipal election years raise deforestation for locations with lower deforestation, whereas all of these increases are accentuated when there is party alignment between different levels of government. This effect of election cycles has fallen over time, to date, yet that cannot be assumed to continue. Our results highlight the need to limit opportunistic behaviors that affect natural resources and the environment with implications for biodiversity, carbon storage, and other ecosystem services.

Scenarios are important tools to facilitate the communication among scientists, practitioners, and decision-makers, and, thus to support policy and management decisions. The use of scenarios has an enormous potential to reduce ecosystem restoration costs and to optimize benefits, but this potential remains poorly explored. Here, we recommend and illustrate six best practices to guide the use of scenarios for planning native ecosystem restoration. We argue, first, for a participatory process to consider aspirations of multiple stakeholders along the whole scenario building process, from planning to implementation and review phases. Second, targeted restoration outcomes should be defined by key-actors (those who have direct interests in restoration) and directly involved stakeholders, within a clear socio-environmental context and under a well-defined problem statement, considering a broad range of nature and human benefits that can be derived from ecosystem restoration. Third, methodological choices, such as scenario types, spatial and temporal scales, drivers, restoration-related variables, and indicators, should be defined according to the multiple desired outcomes. Fourth, we encourage the consideration of the interactions among variables, within a spatially explicit, and temporally dynamic multi-criteria approach. Fifth, analysis and dissemination of scenario results should highlight the trade-offs and synergies among different restoration outcomes, identifying the scenarios that maximize benefits and minimize costs and resistance (i.e. the cost-effective and most feasible scenario) for multiple targets. Finally, promoting capacity building, through a wider consultation process including interaction with a broader group of stakeholders, is critical for the successful implementation and review of restoration interventions. Scenarios that support ecosystem restoration should follow an adaptive and iterative process, aiming to continuously improve restoration interventions and outcomes.

Payment for ecosystem services (PES) are economic incentives intended to generate conservation benefits, principally on private properties. The global portfolio of PES programs is estimated to represent an annual investment of more than USD $36 billion. Despite this substantial investment, the continued lack of systematic and rigorous impact evaluation of PES has contributed to uncertainty regarding the effectiveness of this tool for conservation. Here, we assessed the ability of two watershed PES programs to promote native forest conservation in the Brazilian Atlantic Forest. Those two focal programs are among the most well-established PES programs in Brazil, and form part of a larger network of PES programs intended to protect the drinking water supply of over 19 million people in the Sao Paulo metropolitan region. Using a counterfactual approach, we examined if enrollment in a PES program contributed to the conservation of on-farm native forest cover. With propensity score matching, we identified a set of neighboring, non-enrolled ‘control’ properties, with similar size, altitude, soil type, demographic density, presence of water sources and forest cover. We then estimated forest cover on enrolled and control properties before and after PES implementation with a differences-in-differences method, modeled as the probability of an observed change in on-farm forest area as a consequence of PES enrollment. We found that PES has a positive effect on forest cover, with PES enrollment over a five-year period associated with an additional 2.8–5.6% of farm area coverage in native Atlantic Forest, through forest regeneration. PES enrollment was associated with a non-significant trend toward decreased loss of vegetation. We discuss the implications of these results for understanding the contribution of PES to additionality in forest conservation. While positive, the relatively slow impact of PES on forest regeneration suggests that environmental managers should not count exclusively on PES mechanism to achieve conservation goals.

Foram investigadas as relações entre mapas de fitofisionomias, solos e topografia, na Gleba Pé-de-Gigante (21º37'30''S; 47º37'30''W, SP). A área estudada constitui a planície de inundação do córrego Paulicéia e colinas no entorno, onde predominam fisionomias de cerrado, havendo também manchas de floresta estacional, floresta ripária e campo úmido, sobre solos predominantemente arenosos. As cartas temáticas analisadas compreenderam: a) mapa pré-existente de fisionomias de vegetação, b) mapa hipsométrico, baseado em curvas de nível de 5 em 5 m e c) mapa de solos, feito a partir de dados químicos e físicos do solo (amostras coletadas em 54 pontos, nas profundidades: 0-5, 5-25, 40-60 e 80-100 cm) e fotografias aéreas (1988, 1:40.000). Os mapas foram re-classificados, para se obter diferentes níveis de detalhamento, e cruzados, em sistema de informação geográfica. Nas tabelas de contingência, geradas a partir dos cruzamentos, foi aplicado o teste de Qui-quadrado e obtido o valor de correlação de Cramér, para investigar a relação entre os mapeamentos. A floresta estacional semidecídua se mostrou fortemente associada à classe geral de Latossolos, e o campo cerrado às altitudes de 620-650 m, provavelmente associado à dinâmica sub-superficial da água. O detalhamento da informação mapeada nos temas analisados não garantiu melhores resultados à interpretação de suas relações, pois as classes fitofisionômicas não respondem diretamente, nem isoladamente, à topografia ou à classificação usual dos solos. Relationships among vegetation, soil and topography maps were investigated in the Pé-de-Gigante Reserve (21º37'30''S; 47º37'30''W, SP). The studied area is the Paulicéia river basin, where soils are predominantly sandy and the vegetation includes a gradient of savanna physiognomies and patches of semideciduous forest, wet fields, and riparian forest. The cartographic material included: a) pre-existent vegetation map, b) topographic map based on 5 m contour curves, and c) a soil map based on chemical and physical soil features (soil samples collected at 54 sites at 0-5, 5-25, 40-60 e 80-100 cm depths) and aerial photographs (1988, 1:40.000). These maps were reclassified to generate secondary maps at different levels of detail, and overlayed through a geographic information system. Contingency tables were generated, and chi-squared values and Cramér correlation coefficients were obtained to investigate the relationships between the maps. The semideciduous forest showed a strong correlation with the Oxissols; "campo cerrado" was associated to 620-650 m altitudes, probably due to sub-surface water dynamics. The refinement of the mapped information did not add to the interpretation of the relationships among soil, vegetation and topography, as the vegetation physiognomy does not respond directly nor independently to topography or to the usual soil classification.

Several studies pointed out soil properties as the prime determinant of cerrado (the Brazilian savanna) physiognomies, and a gradient from “campo cerrado” (a shrub savanna) to “cerradao” (a tall woodland) has been correlated with a soil fertility gradient. Based on this hypothesis, we investigated soil-vegetation relationships in the Pe-de-Gigante Reserve (Sao Paulo State, Southeastern Brazil). We randomly distributed 10 quadrats (10 × 10 m) on each of the following physiognomies: “campo cerrado”, “cerrado sensu stricto”, “cerradao”, and seasonal semideciduous forest, previously defined by the analysis of satellite images (LANDSAT-5). We sampled the woody individuals with stem diamete r>3c m atsoil level, identifying their species. In each quadrat, we collected soil samples at the depths of 0–5, 5–25, 40–60, and 80–100 cm, and determined pH, K, Ca, Mg, P, Al, H + Al, base saturation, aluminium saturation, cation exchange capacity, and percentage of sand, clay and loam. Obtained data were submitted to a canonical correspondence analysis (CCA) and to a detrended correspondence analysis (DCA). Our results showed a clear distinction between semideciduous forest and the cerrado physiognomies, based in soil parameters. The former was related to higher concentrations of cations and clay in the soil, while the latter was related to higher concentrations of exchangeable aluminium in the soil surface. The three cerrado physiognomies – “campo cerrado”, “cerrado sensu stricto”, and “cerradao” – could not be distinguished considering plant density and the analysed soil features.

O instrumento econômico pagamento por serviços ambientais (PSA) está ganhando cada vez mais espaço nos debates como solução para diversos problemas ambientais. Este instrumento já se consolida como política pública em diversos países. No Brasil foi aprovada a Política Nacional de Pagamento por Serviços Ambientais (BRASIL, 2021). Diversos autores relatam a capacidade do PSA em alterar os usos do solo. Desta forma, é compreendido que este instrumento deva estar sujeito a regulamentações e controles. Como escopo deste estudo, consideramos os Planos Diretores, definidos pelo Estatuto da Cidade (BRASIL, 2001), como instrumento de planejamento territorial. Esta dissertação tem como objetivo analisar a articulação entre planos diretores e esquemas de PSA em municípios brasileiros. Buscou-se classificar o nível de incorporação do instrumento PSA nos planos diretores de municípios e o nível de incorporação das orientações definidas pelos planos diretores municipais nos documentos que definem as regras de funcionamento dos esquemas de PSA. Por fim, buscou-se confrontar os resultados obtidos, a fim de identificar congruências, lacunas e/ou pontos conflituosos que possam afetar o alcance dos objetivos de cada um dos instrumentos. Como método foi utilizada Análise de Conteúdo (BARDIN, 1977; FRANCO, 2007) para a busca de palavras-chave de interesse e para interpretação dos resultados obtidos. No total foram estudados 31 esquemas de PSA e 157 municípios brasileiros. Concluiu-se que, embora a literatura internacional indique a importância da articulação entre esquemas de pagamento por serviços ambientais e instrumentos de planejamento territorial, como exemplo planos diretores, isto não é regra para os municípios brasileiros. The economic instrument payment for environmental services (PES) is gaining more and more space in the debates as a solution to several environmental problems. This instrument is already consolidated as a public policy in several countries. In Brazil, the National Policy for Payment for Environmental Services was approved (BRASIL, 2021). Several authors report the PSA\'s ability to change land uses. Thus, it is understood that this instrument must be subject to regulations and controls. As the scope of this study, it considers the Master Plans, defined by the City Statute \"Estatuto da Cidade\" (BRASIL, 2001), as an instrument of territorial planning. This dissertation aims to analyze an articulation between master plans and PES schemes in Brazilian municipalities. We sought to classify the level of incorporation of the PSA instrument in the municipal master plans and the level of incorporation of the definitions by the municipal master plans in the documents that they define as rules of operation of the PES schemes. Finally, we sought to compare the results obtained, to identify congruence, gaps and/or conflicting points that affect the achievement of the objectives of each of the instruments. As a method used for content analysis (BARDIN, 1977; FRANCO, 2007) to search for keywords of interest and to interpret the results obtained. In total, 31 PES schemes and 157 Brazilian municipalities were studied. It was concluded that, although the international literature indicates the importance of the articulation between payment schemes for environmental services and territorial planning instruments, such as master plans, this is not a rule for Brazilian municipalities.

REDD+ impact evaluations indicate deforestation is commonly reduced, despite null outcomes on well-being. However, as those evaluations are still rare, the effectiveness of REDD+ initiatives remain an open question. Even less studied is if outcomes achieved are sustained after initiatives end. Because most initiatives were evaluated shortly after the application of incentives, there is a knowledge gap about their long-term effects. Therefore, the main goal of this thesis was to assess both short and long-term effects of a Brazilian Amazon REDD+ initiative on deforestation and local peoples well-being. We also wanted to identify which were the driving factors behind the observed outcomes. We scrutinized the Projeto Assentamentos Sustentáveis na Amazônia, a REDD+ project implemented by a Brazilian NGO Instituto de Pesquisa Ambiental da Amazônia (IPAM) in the Transamazon highway region of the Pará state (Brazil). The initiative combined Payments for Environmental Services (PES) with sustainable livelihood alternatives to reduce smallholder deforestation. In the three chapters presented here, quasi-experimental designs were adopted. Data came from face-to-face surveys in a three-datapoint panel design. The purpose of the first chapter was to assess the effects of the REDD+ initiative on deforestation and perceived well-being, including intra-community spillover effects, besides scrutinizing to what extent the observed outcomes persisted after the initiative ended. Results indicate an average of 7.80% to 10.32% of forest cover was saved by the REDD+ initiative probably by providing PES. It also increased the probability of improving enrollees wellbeing by 27-44%. We found no evidence for significant intra-community spillover. After the initiative ended, forest loss rebounded and perceived wellbeing declined yet, importantly, past saved forest was not cleared. In the second chapter, we revisited the long-term evaluation of the deforestation outcomes to analyze whether the adoption of alternative livelihood activities was a causal mechanism for self-sustaining the deforestation reduction induced by a REDD+ initiative. We hypothesized the REDD+ initiative promoted heterogeneous outcomes in the long-term, which varied according to whether households adopted alternative livelihood activities. Indeed, treated households that adopted new activities had an average of 14.67% to 16.90% more forest than controls, while null impacts were observed in treated households that did not adopt alternative livelihood activities. In the third chapter, we assessed both short and long-term effects of the initiative on farm income and agricultural productivity. We also investigated if increases in agricultural productivity may have contributed to forest conservation (land sparing) or to forest loss (rebound effect). Results indicate null impacts on farm income and agricultural productivity in the early project stage. Yet, in the long-term, higher farm income and yields per hectare were detected. We found no sufficient evidence neither for the rebound effect nor for land sparing. On aggregate, our findings indicate the REDD+ initiative left win-win outcomes in terms of forest conservation and increasing agricultural profitability. Notably, the main REDD+ implications to conservation of our findings are: i) temporary payments might effectively delay, though not permanently eradicate forest loss; ii) adoption of alternative livelihoods may ensure self-sustained deforestation reduction. Avaliações de impacto de REDD+ indicam que o desmatamento é comumente reduzido, embora os efeitos sobre o bem-estar humano sejam nulos. Porém, como essas avaliações ainda são raras, a eficácia das iniciativas de REDD+ permanece em aberto. Mais raros ainda são os estudos que investigaram se os resultados se sustentam após o término das iniciativas. Como a maioria delas foi avaliada somente no início, os efeitos no longo prazo são pouco conhecidos. O objetivo desta tese, portanto, foi avaliar os efeitos de curto e longo prazo de uma iniciativa de REDD+ na Amazônia brasileira sobre o desmatamento e o bem-estar da população local. Também buscou-se identificar os fatores que impulsionaram tais efeitos. Foi analisado o Projeto Assentamentos Sustentáveis na Amazônia, iniciativa de REDD+ implementada pelo Instituto de Pesquisa Ambiental da Amazônia (IPAM) na região da rodovia Transamazônica no estado do Pará (Brasil). Para reduzir o desmatamento de pequenos agricultores, o Projeto forneceu Pagamentos por Serviços Ambientais (PSA) e incentivos para adoção de atividades econômicas de baixo impacto. Delineamentos quase-experimentais foram adotados nos três capítulos. Foram analisados dados em painel coletados por entrevistas estruturadas em três anos. No primeiro capítulo, avaliamos os efeitos da iniciativa de REDD+ no desmatamento e bem-estar percebido, incluindo efeito de transbordamento intracomunitário. Ademais, investigamos o quanto os efeitos persistiram após o término da iniciativa. Os resultados indicam que, em média, 7,80% a 10,32% de cobertura florestal foi salva provavelmente pelo fornecimento de PSA. A iniciativa também aumentou a probabilidade de melhorar o bem-estar dos participantes em 27-44%. Não encontramos evidência de transbordamento. Após o término da iniciativa, o desmatamento foi retomado e o bem-estar percebido reduzido - porém, as áreas de floresta salvas não foram derrubadas. No segundo capítulo, investigamos se a adoção de atividades econômicas alternativas foi um mecanismo causal para autossustentar a redução do desmatamento. Nossa hipótese foi a de que a iniciativa teria promovido resultados heterogêneos no longo prazo, os quais variavam conforme a adoção de atividades econômicas alternativas pelas unidades participantes. De fato, as unidades domésticas que adotaram atividades alternativas tiveram uma média de 14,67% a 16,90% a mais de cobertura florestal do que as do grupo controle, enquanto impactos nulos foram observados nas unidades que não adotaram tais atividades. No terceiro capítulo, avaliamos os efeitos de curto e longo prazo da iniciativa sobre a renda e a produtividade agrícolas. Também investigamos se incrementos na produtividade contribuíram para a conservação da floresta (efeito poupa-terra) ou para sua perda (efeito rebote). Encontramos impactos iniciais nulos. Porém, no longo prazo, foram detectados rendimentos agrícolas totais e por hectare mais elevados. Não foram encontradas evidências suficientes para o efeito rebote nem para o efeito poupa-terra. No geral, nossos resultados indicam que a iniciativa de REDD+ deixou resultados positivos em termos de conservação da floresta e aumento da lucratividade agrícola. As principais implicações para a conservação das florestas desse estudo são: i) pagamentos temporários podem atrasar, embora não erradicar permanentemente o desmatamento; ii) a adoção de atividades econômicas alternativas pode garantir redução autossustentada no desmatamento.