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Extensive research has been conducted at Lake Tanganyika to understand its vulnerability to a warming climate and fishing pressure. However, much of this work has been restricted to the more accessible northern basin. Studies from a limited geographic region of the lake are insufficient to explain whole-lake dynamics of the world’s longest lake (~ 670 km N-S). While strong evidence suggests that lake warming has played a critical role in decreasing fish abundance, limnological changes associated with warming have not been investigated lake wide. This study used paleolimnological data from two deep-water sediment cores from southern Lake Tanganyika to determine whether changes observed in the northern and central basins are, in fact, representative of lake-wide phenomena. We infer a decrease in diatom concentration after ~ 3000 cal yrs BP to reflect a decrease in net primary productivity associated with decreasing convective mixing. In contrast, the episodic presence of benthic invertebrates (ostracodes and molluscs) at these deep sites between ~ 1800–500 cal yrs BP, along with high Mn, indicates episodic pulses of much deeper ventilation of the southern basin than has been recognized previously. The presence of periphytic diatom species and benthic invertebrates during periods of strong stratification suggests that the lake bottom was periodically ventilated by descending denser (cooler or more sediment-rich) influent waters along the steep slopes of the coastline. Fish fossil abundance also is correlated with the dominance of heavily silicified diatom taxa, which itself requires stronger wave activity and upwelling of deep, nutrient-rich water. Fossil diatom assemblages show P and Si gradients between the two sites. LT17-TANG17-6A shows a shift in dominance towards lightly silicified taxa (Nitzschia spp.) after ~ 200 cal yrs BP. LT17-TANG17-2A shows a reduction in concentration of mostly the lightly silicified taxa, with few periods having heavily silicified taxa. These results are indicative of a relative reduction in convective lake mixing but are not always coincident with temperature trends, suggesting local windiness may also be important for stratification history. Thus, changes in lake productivity in the southern basin appear to be climate mediated, but in ways not previously documented in the northern and central parts of the lake.

The Southern Ocean (SO) is vital to Earth’s climate system due to its dominant role in exchanging carbon and heat between the ocean and atmosphere and transforming water masses. Evaluating the ability of fully coupled climate models to accurately simulate SO circulation and properties is crucial for building confidence in model projections and advancing model fidelity. By analyzing multiple biases collectively across large model ensembles, physical mechanisms governing the diverse mean-state SO circulation found across models can be identified. This analysis 1) assesses the ability of a large ensemble of models contributed to phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) to simulate observationally based metrics associated with an accurate representation of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC), and 2) presents a framework by which the quality of the simulation can be categorized and mechanisms governing the resulting circulation can be deduced. Different combinations of biases in critical metrics including the magnitude and position of the zonally averaged westerly wind stress maximum, wind-driven surface divergence, surface buoyancy fluxes, and properties and transport of North Atlantic Deep Water entering the SO produce distinct mean-state ACC transports. Relative to CMIP3, the quality of the CMIP5 SO simulations has improved. Eight of the thirty-one models simulate an ACC within observational uncertainty (2σ) for approximately the right reasons; that is, the models achieve accuracy in the surface wind stress forcing and the representation of the difference in the meridional density across the current. Improved observations allow for a better assessment of the SO circulation and its properties.

Strong winds in Southern Ocean storms drive air-sea carbon and heat fluxes. These fluxes are integral to the global climate system and the wind speeds that drive them are increasing. The current sc...

Author(s): Beadling, RL; Russell, JL; Stouffer, RJ; Mazloff, M; Talley, LD; Goodman, PJ; Sallee, JB; Hewitt, HT; Hyder, P; Pandde, Amarjiit | Abstract: AbstractThe air–sea exchange of heat and carbon in the Southern Ocean (SO) plays an important role in mediating the climate state. The dominant role the SO plays in storing anthropogenic heat and carbon is a direct consequence of the unique and complex ocean circulation that exists there. Previous generations of climate models have struggled to accurately represent key SO properties and processes that influence the large-scale ocean circulation. This has resulted in low confidence ascribed to twenty-first-century projections of the state of the SO from previous generations of models. This analysis provides a detailed assessment of the ability of models contributed to the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) to represent important observationally based SO properties. Additionally, a comprehensive overview of CMIP6 performance relative to CMIP3 and CMIP5 is presented. CMIP6 models show improved performance in the surface wind stress forcing, simulating stronger and less equatorward-biased wind fields, translating into an improved representation of the Ekman upwelling over the Drake Passage latitudes. An increased number of models simulate an Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) transport within observational uncertainty relative to previous generations; however, several models exhibit extremely weak transports. Generally, the upper SO remains biased warm and fresh relative to observations, and Antarctic sea ice extent remains poorly represented. While generational improvement is found in many metrics, persistent systematic biases are highlighted that should be a priority during model development. These biases need to be considered when interpreting projected trends or biogeochemical properties in this region.

Observationally based metrics derived from the Rapid Climate Change (RAPID) array are used to assess the large-scale ocean circulation in the subtropical North Atlantic simulated in a suite of fully coupled climate models that contributed to phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The modeled circulation at 26.5°N is decomposed into four components similar to those RAPID observes to estimate the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC): the northward-flowing western boundary current (WBC), the southward transport in the upper midocean, the near-surface Ekman transport, and the southward deep ocean transport. The decadal-mean AMOC and the transports associated with its flow are captured well by CMIP5 models at the start of the twenty-first century. By the end of the century, under representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5), averaged across models, the northward transport of waters in the upper WBC is projected to weaken by 7.6 Sv (1 Sv ≡ 106m3s−1; −21%). This reduced northward flow is a combined result of a reduction in the subtropical gyre return flow in the upper ocean (−2.9 Sv; −12%) and a weakened net southward transport in the deep ocean (−4.4 Sv; −28%) corresponding to the weakened AMOC. No consistent long-term changes of the Ekman transport are found across models. The reduced southward transport in the upper ocean is associated with a reduction in wind stress curl (WSC) across the North Atlantic subtropical gyre, largely through Sverdrup balance. This reduced WSC and the resulting decrease in the horizontal gyre transport is a robust feature found across the CMIP5 models under increased CO2forcing.

Two state-of-the-art Earth system models (ESMs) were used in an idealized experiment to explore the role of mountains in shaping Earth’s climate system. Similar to previous studies, removing mountains from both ESMs results in the winds becoming more zonal and weaker Indian and Asian monsoon circulations. However, there are also broad changes to the Walker circulation and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Without orography, convection moves across the entire equatorial Indo-Pacific basin on interannual time scales. ENSO has a stronger amplitude, lower frequency, and increased regularity. A wider equatorial wind zone and changes to equatorial wind stress curl result in a colder cold tongue and a steeper equatorial thermocline across the Pacific basin during La Niña years. Anomalies associated with ENSO warm events are larger without mountains and have greater impact on the mean tropical climate than when mountains are present. Without mountains, the centennial-mean Pacific Walker circulation weakens in both models by approximately 45%, but the strength of the mean Hadley circulation changes by less than 2%. Changes in the Walker circulation in these experiments can be explained by the large spatial excursions of atmospheric deep convection on interannual time scales. These results suggest that mountains are an important control on the large-scale tropical circulation, impacting ENSO dynamics and the Walker circulation, but have little impact on the strength of the Hadley circulation.

The Earth System Model Evaluation Tool (ESMValTool) is a community diagnostics and performance metrics tool designed to improve comprehensive and routine evaluation of Earth System Models (ESMs) participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). It has undergone rapid development since the first release in 2016 and is now a well-tested tool that provides end-to-end provenance tracking to ensure reproducibility. It consists of an easy-to-install, well documented Python package providing the core functionalities (ESMValCore) that performs common pre-processing operations and a diagnostic part that includes tailored diagnostics and performance metrics for specific scientific applications. Here we describe large-scale diagnostics of the second major release of the tool that supports the evaluation of ESMs participating in CMIP Phase 6 (CMIP6). ESMValTool v2.0 includes a large collection of diagnostics and performance metrics for atmospheric, oceanic, and terrestrial variables for the mean state, trends, and variability. ESMValTool v2.0 also successfully reproduces figures from the evaluation and projections chapters of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) and incorporates updates from targeted analysis packages, such as the NCAR Climate Variability Diagnostics Package for the evaluation of modes of variability the Thermodynamic Diagnostic Tool (TheDiaTo) to evaluate the energetics of the climate system, as well as parts of AutoAssess that contains a mix of top-down performance metrics. The tool has been fully integrated into the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) infrastructure at the Deutsches Klima Rechenzentrum (DKRZ) to provide evaluation results from CMIP6 model simulations shortly after the output is published to the CMIP archive. A result browser has been implemented that enables advanced monitoring of the evaluation results by a broad user community at much faster timescales than what was possible in CMIP5.

The Southern Ocean is central to the global climate and the global carbon cycle, and to the climate's response to increasing levels of atmospheric greenhouse gases, as it ventilates a large fraction of the global ocean volume. Global coupled climate models and earth system models, however, vary widely in their simulations of the Southern Ocean and its role in, and response to, the ongoing anthropogenic trend. Due to the region's complex water-mass structure and dynamics, Southern Ocean carbon and heat uptake depend on a combination of winds, eddies, mixing, buoyancy fluxes, and topography. Observationally based metrics are critical for discerning processes and mechanisms, and for validating and comparing climate and earth system models. New observations and understanding have allowed for progress in the creation of observationally based data/model metrics for the Southern Ocean. Metrics presented here provide a means to assess multiple simulations relative to the best available observations and observational products. Climate models that perform better according to these metrics also better simulate the uptake of heat and carbon by the Southern Ocean. This report is not strictly an intercomparison, but rather a distillation of key metrics that can reliably quantify the "accuracy" of a simulation against observed, or at least observable, quantities. One overall goal is to recommend standardization of observationally based benchmarks that the modeling community should aspire to meet in order to reduce uncertainties in climate projections, and especially uncertainties related to oceanic heat and carbon uptake., National Science Foundation (U.S.) (Award PLR-1246247)

The Ordos Basin of China encompasses the Mu Us Desert in the northwest and the Chinese Loess Plateau to the south and east. The boundary between the mostly internally drained Mu Us Desert and fluvially incised Loess Plateau is an erosional escarpment, up to 400 m in relief, composed of Quaternary loess. Linear ridges, with lengths of ∼10 2 –10 3 m, are formed in Cretaceous- Quaternary strata throughout the basin. Ridge orientations are generally parallel to near-surface wind vectors in the Ordos Basin during modern winter and spring dust storms. Our observations suggest that the Loess Plateau previously extended farther to the north and west of its modern windward escarpment margin and has been partially reworked by eolian processes. The linear topography, Mu Us Desert internal drainage, and escarpment retreat are all attributed to wind erosion, the aerial extent of which expanded southeastward in China in response to Quaternary amplification of Northern Hemisphere glaciation.

Seasonality in Titan’s troposphere is driven by latitudinally varying insolation. We show that the latitudinal distributions of insolation in the troposphere and at the surface, based on Huygens DISR measurements, can be approximated analytically with nonzero extinction optical depths τ, and are not equivalent to that at the top of the atmosphere (τ = 0), as has been assumed previously. This has implications for the temperature distribution and the circulation, which we explore with a simple box model. The surface temperature maximum and the upwelling arm of thermally-direct meridional circulation reach the midlatitudes, not the poles, during summertime.

General circulation models (GCMs) have demonstrated success in simulating global climate, and they are critical tools for producing regional climate projections consistent with global changes in radiative forcing. GCM output is currently being used in a variety of ways for regional impacts projection. However, more work is required to assess model bias and evaluate whether assumptions about the independence of model projections and error are valid. This is particularly important where models do not display offsetting errors. Comparing simulated 300-hPa zonal winds and precipitation for the late 20th century with reanalysis and gridded precipitation data shows statistically significant and physically plausible associations between positive precipitation biases across all models and a marked increase in zonal wind speed around 30°N, as well as distortions in rain shadow patterns. Over the western United States, GCMs project drier conditions to the south and increasing precipitation to the north. There is a high degree of agreement between models, and many studies have made strong statements about implications for water resources and about ecosystem change on that basis. However, since one of the mechanisms driving changes in winter precipitation patterns appears to be associated with a source of error in simulating mean precipitation in the present, it suggests that greater caution should be used in interpreting impacts related to precipitation projections in this region and that standard assumptions underlying bias correction methods should be scrutinized.

A time-dependent trajectory algorithm is used to determine the sources of the Pacific Ocean Equatorial Undercurrent (EUC) in a global climate model with ¼° (eddy permitting) resolution and forced with realistic winds. The primary sources and pathways are identified, and the transformation of properties in temperature/salinity space is explored. An estimate for the quantity of recirculation, a notoriously difficult property to estimate from observational data, is given. Over two-thirds of the water in the Pacific EUC at 140°W originates south of the equator; 70% of the EUC is ventilated outside of the Tropics (poleward of 13°S or 10°N): three-quarters of these extratropical trajectories travel through the western boundary currents between their subduction and incorporation into the EUC, and one-fifth of the extratropical trajectories enter and leave the tropical band at least once before entering the EUC.

The response of an ocean general circulation model to the onset of deep-water formation in the North Atlantic Ocean is explored. The processes of baroclinic adjustment to the new deep water mass and the advection of the new deep water mass are compared in both space and time. The baroclinic adjustment is gauged by following the anomalies in the 0‐2000 dbar layer thickness and the advection is measured with the aid of idealized passive tracers. Baroclinic adjustment follows the classical boundary layer path and all locations north of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current begin to feel the effects within 20 years. Heat transport in the North Atlantic responds on the adjustment timescale. Advection does not follow the boundary layer path and is much slower: the timescale for NADW to reach the North Pacific Ocean is on the order of 1000 years. While the baroclinic signal is much faster, the initial response is much smaller and probably could not be detected over the random noise in the pressure field outside of the Atlantic basin. Both processes weaken as they move farther from the forcing region.

Simple theoretical arguments are employed to study the dependence of the volume and transport of the Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW) in the Atlantic Ocean on the vertical diffusivity. We have found that while the vertical extent of the AABW cell decreases with the intensification and deepening of the North Atlantic overturning cell, the transport of AABW into the Atlantic increases. The latter fact is explained by the increase in the deep meridional pressure gradient, which drives the flow. An estimate of the AABW transport is then derived from the density balance in the deep western boundary layer.

The global adjustment of the thermocline in response to deepwater formation is studied in a single mode model on a beta-plane. The signal is carried from ocean to ocean by Kelvin waves, which travel equatorward along western boundaries, eastward across the equator, poleward at the eastern boundaries, and then eastward around the southern tip of continents into the next ocean basin. The interior is filled by Rossby waves emanating from eastern boundaries. Stronger (weaker) deepwater formation induces an upward (downward) motion of the main thermocline in the world oceans. The adjustment is completed on centennial time scales.

Two coarse-resolution model experiments are carried out on an OGCM to examine the effects of North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) formation on the thermohaline circulation (THC) and ventilation timescales of the abyssal ocean. An idealized age tracer is included to gauge the ventilation in the model. One experiment is forced with the present-day climatology, the other has a negative salinity anomaly imposed on the North Atlantic surface to eliminate the formation of NADW. The Atlantic branch of the THC is reversed and the ventilation of the deep Atlantic basin is severely reduced when NADW formation is prevented. The Southern Ocean forms bottom water in both experiments, but downwelling and upwelling in the Southern Ocean are both reduced when NADW is included due to increased stratification of the water column. The Indian and Pacific basins are upwelling regions in both experiments and upper-level upwelling is stronger there when NADW is included; this change leads to cooler temperatures and reduced...

The Pamir is the western continuation of Tibet and the site of some of the highest mountains on Earth, yet comparatively little is known about its crustal and tectonic evolution and erosional history. Both Tibet and the Pamir are characterized by similar terranes and sutures that can be correlated along strike, although the details of such correlations remain controversial. The erosional history of the Pamir with respect to Tibet is significantly different as well: Most of Tibet has been characterized by internal drainage and low erosion rates since the early Cenozoic; in contrast, the Pamir is externally drained and topographically more rugged, and it has a strongly asymmetric drainage pattern. Here, we report 700 new U-Pb and Lu-Hf isotope determinations and >300 Ar-40/Ar-39 ages from detrital minerals derived from rivers in China draining the northeastern Pamir and >1000 apatite fission-track (AFT) ages from 12 rivers in Tajikistan and China draining the northeastern, central, and southern Pamir. U-Pb ages from rivers draining the northeastern Pamir are Mesozoic to Proterozoic and show affinity with the Songpan-Ganzi terrane of northern Tibet, whereas rivers draining the central and southern Pamir are mainly Mesozoic and show some affinity with the Qiangtang terrane of central Tibet. The epsilon(Hf) values are juvenile, between 15 and -5, for the northeastern Pamir and juvenile to moderately evolved, between 10 and -40, for the central and southern Pamir. Detrital mica Ar-40/Ar-39 ages for the northeastern Pamir (eastern drainages) are generally older than ages from the central and southern Pamir (western drainages), indicating younger or lower-magnitude exhumation of the northeastern Pamir compared to the central and southern Pamir. AFT data show strong Miocene-Pliocene signals at the orogen scale, indicating rapid erosion at the regional scale. Despite localized exhumation of the Mustagh-Ata and Kongur-Shan domes, average erosion rates for the northeastern Pamir are up to one order of magnitude lower than erosion rates recorded by the central and southern Pamir. Deeper exhumation of the central and southern Pamir is associated with tectonic exhumation of central Pamir domes. Deeper exhumation coincides with western and asymmetric drainages and with higher precipitation today, suggesting an orographic effect on exhumation. A younging-southward trend of cooling ages may reflect tectonic processes. Overall, cooling ages derived from the Pamir are younger than ages recorded in Tibet, indicating younger and higher magnitudes of erosion in the Pamir.

We study the dependence of the volume and transport of the Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW) in the Atlantic Ocean on vertical mixing. Numerical results from a set of OGCM runs show that, while the vertical extent of the AABW cell decreases with intensifying vertical mixing, the cell's transport increases. An analytical model of the deep boundary layers is then used to interpret the results. The decrease in the AABW thickness is explained by the downward expansion of the upper, North Atlantic Deep Water cell. The intensification of the AABW transport is attributed to the increase in the deep meridional pressure gradient, which drives the flow. An estimate of the AABW transport is then derived from the density balance in the deep western boundary layer and compared with the OGCM results.