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OBJECTIVES: We aim to estimate geographic variability in total numbers of infections and infection fatality ratios (IFR; the number of deaths caused by an infection per 1,000 infected people) when the availability and quality of data on disease burden are limited during an epidemic. METHODS: We develop a noncentral hypergeometric framework that accounts for differential probabilities of positive tests and reflects the fact that symptomatic people are more likely to seek testing. We demonstrate the robustness, accuracy, and precision of this framework, and apply it to the United States (U.S.) COVID-19 pandemic to estimate county-level SARS-CoV-2 IFRs. RESULTS: The estimators for the numbers of infections and IFRs showed high accuracy and precision; for instance, when applied to simulated validation data sets, across counties, Pearson correlation coefficients between estimator means and true values were 0.996 and 0.928, respectively, and they showed strong robustness to model misspecification. Applying the county-level estimators to the real, unsimulated COVID-19 data spanning April 1, 2020 to September 30, 2020 from across the U.S., we found that IFRs varied from 0 to 44.69, with a standard deviation of 3.55 and a median of 2.14. CONCLUSIONS: The proposed estimation framework can be used to identify geographic variation in IFRs across settings.

BackgroundA mechanistic understanding of the spread of SARS-CoV-2 and diligent tracking of ongoing mutagenesis are of key importance to plan robust strategies for confining its transmission. Large numbers of available sequences and their dates of transmission provide an unprecedented opportunity to analyze evolutionary adaptation in novel ways. Addition of high-resolution structural information can reveal the functional basis of these processes at the molecular level. Integrated systems biology-directed analyses of these data layers afford valuable insights to build a global understanding of the COVID-19 pandemic.ResultsHere we identify globally distributed haplotypes from 15,789 SARS-CoV-2 genomes and model their success based on their duration, dispersal, and frequency in the host population. Our models identify mutations that are likely compensatory adaptive changes that allowed for rapid expansion of the virus. Functional predictions from structural analyses indicate that, contrary to previous reports, the Asp614Gly mutation in the spike glycoprotein (S) likely reduced transmission and the subsequent Pro323Leu mutation in the RNA-dependent RNA polymerase led to the precipitous spread of the virus. Our model also suggests that two mutations in the nsp13 helicase allowed for the adaptation of the virus to the Pacific Northwest of the USA. Finally, our explainable artificial intelligence algorithm identified a mutational hotspot in the sequence of S that also displays a signature of positive selection and may have implications for tissue or cell-specific expression of the virus.ConclusionsThese results provide valuable insights for the development of drugs and surveillance strategies to combat the current and future pandemics.

Despite SARS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2 being equipped with highly similar protein arsenals, the corresponding zoonoses have spread among humans at extremely different rates. The specific characteristics of these viruses that led to such distinct outcomes remain unclear. Here, we apply proteome-wide comparative structural analysis aiming to identify the unique molecular elements in the SARS-CoV-2 proteome that may explain the differing consequences. By combining protein modeling and molecular dynamics simulations, we suggest nonconservative substitutions in functional regions of the spike glycoprotein (S), nsp1, and nsp3 that are contributing to differences in virulence. Particularly, we explain why the substitutions at the receptor-binding domain of S affect the structure–dynamics behavior in complexes with putative host receptors. Conservation of functional protein regions within the two taxa is also noteworthy. We suggest that the highly conserved main protease, nsp5, of SARS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2 is part of their mechanism of circumventing the host interferon antiviral response. Overall, most substitutions occur on the protein surfaces and may be modulating their antigenic properties and interactions with other macromolecules. Our results imply that the striking difference in the pervasiveness of SARS-CoV-2 and SARS-CoV among humans seems to significantly derive from molecular features that modulate the efficiency of viral particles in entering the host cells and blocking the host immune response. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Opioid misuse, addiction, and associated overdose deaths remain global public health crises. Despite the tremendous need for pharmacological treatments, current options are limited in number, use, and effectiveness. Fundamental leaps forward in our understanding of the biology driving opioid addiction are needed to guide development of more effective medication-assisted therapies. This Review focuses on the omics-identified biological features associated with opioid addiction. Recent GWAS have begun to identify robust genetic associations, including variants in OPRM1, FURIN, and the gene cluster SCAI/PPP6C/RABEPK. An increasing number of omics studies of postmortem human brain tissue examining biological features (e.g., histone modification and gene expression) across different brain regions have identified broad gene dysregulation associated with overdose death among opioid misusers. Drawn together by meta-analysis and multi-omic systems biology, and informed by model organism studies, key biological pathways enriched for opioid addiction-associated genes are emerging, which include specific receptors (e.g., GABAB receptors, GPCR, and Trk) linked to signaling pathways (e.g., Trk, ERK/MAPK, orexin) that are associated with synaptic plasticity and neuronal signaling. Studies leveraging the agnostic discovery power of omics and placing it within the context of functional neurobiology will propel us toward much-needed, field-changing breakthroughs, including identification of actionable targets for drug development to treat this devastating brain disease. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While the proliferation of data-driven omics technologies has continued to accelerate, methods of identifying relationships among large-scale changes from omics experiments have stagnated. It is therefore imperative to develop methods that can identify key mechanisms among one or more omics experiments in order to advance biological discovery. To solve this problem, here we describe the network-based algorithm MENTOR - Multiplex Embedding of Networks for Team-Based Omics Research. We demonstrate MENTOR's utility as a supervised learning approach to successfully partition a gene set containing multiple ontological functions into their respective functions. Subsequently, we used MENTOR as an unsupervised learning approach to identify important biological functions pertaining to the host genetic architectures in Populus trichocarpa associated with microbial abundance of multiple taxa. Moreover, as open source software designed with scientific teams in mind, we demonstrate the ability to use the output of MENTOR to facilitate distributed interpretation of omics experiments.

The unprecedented scientific achievements in combating the COVID-19 pandemic reflect a global response informed by unprecedented access to data. We now have the ability to rapidly generate a diversity of information on an emerging pathogen and, by using high-performance computing and a systems biology approach, we can mine this wealth of information to understand the complexities of viral pathogenesis and contagion like never before. These efforts will aid in the development of vaccines, antiviral medications, and inform policymakers and clinicians. Here we detail computational protocols developed as SARS-CoV-2 began to spread across the globe. They include pathogen detection, comparative structural proteomics, evolutionary adaptation analysis via network and artificial intelligence methodologies, and multiomic integration. These protocols constitute a core framework on which to build a systems-level infrastructure that can be quickly brought to bear on future pathogens before they evolve into pandemic proportions., (© 2022. The Author(s), under exclusive license to Springer Science+Business Media, LLC, part of Springer Nature.)