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High-energy extensions to General Relativity modify the Einstein-Hilbert action with higher-order curvature corrections and theory-specific coupling constants. The order of these corrections imprints a universal curvature dependence on observations while the coupling constant controls the deviation strength. In this Letter, we leverage the theory-independent expectation that modifications to the action of a given order in spacetime curvature (Riemann tensor and contractions) lead to observational deviations that scale with the system length-scale to a corresponding power. Focusing on gravitational wave observations, the relevant scale is the binary total mass, and deviations scale as a power of mass $p$ related to the action order. For example, $p=4,6$ arise in effective field theory for cubic and quartic theories respectively. We incorporate this universal scaling into theory-agnostic tests of General Relativity with current gravitational-wave observations, thus enabling constraints on the curvature scaling without compromising the agnostic nature of these tests. This introduces a flexible yet highly interpretable new paradigm for tests of General Relativity with gravitational-wave catalogs., Comment: 8 pages, 3 figures

As the catalogue of gravitational-wave transients grows, several entries appear "exceptional" within the population. Tipping the scales with a total mass of $\approx 150 M_\odot$, GW190521 likely contained black holes in the pair-instability mass gap. The event GW190814, meanwhile, is unusual for its extreme mass ratio and the mass of its secondary component. A growing model-building industry has emerged to provide explanations for such exceptional events, and Bayesian model selection is frequently used to determine the most informative model. However, Bayesian methods can only take us so far. They provide no answer to the question: does our model provide an adequate explanation for the data? If none of the models we are testing provide an adequate explanation, then it is not enough to simply rank our existing models - we need new ones. In this paper, we introduce a method to answer this question with a frequentist $p$-value. We apply the method to different models that have been suggested to explain GW190521: hierarchical mergers in active galactic nuclei and globular clusters. We show that some (but not all) of these models provide adequate explanations for exceptionally massive events like GW190521., Comment: 8 pages, 3 figures, 1 table

General relativity (GR) has proven to be a highly successful theory of gravity since its inception. The theory has thrivingly passed numerous experimental tests, predominantly in weak gravity, low relative speeds, and linear regimes, but also in the strong-field and very low-speed regimes with binary pulsars. Observable gravitational waves (GWs) originate from regions of spacetime where gravity is extremely strong, making them a unique tool for testing GR, in previously inaccessible regions of large curvature, relativistic speeds, and strong gravity. Since their first detection, GWs have been extensively used to test GR, but no deviations have been found so far. Given GR's tremendous success in explaining current astronomical observations and laboratory experiments, accepting any deviation from it requires a very high level of statistical confidence and consistency of the deviation across GW sources. In this paper, we compile a comprehensive list of potential causes that can lead to a false identification of a GR violation in standard tests of GR on data from current and future ground-based GW detectors. These causes include detector noise, signal overlaps, gaps in the data, detector calibration, source model inaccuracy, missing physics in the source and in the underlying environment model, source misidentification, and mismodeling of the astrophysical population. We also provide a rough estimate of when each of these causes will become important for tests of GR for different detector sensitivities. We argue that each of these causes should be thoroughly investigated, quantified, and ruled out before claiming a GR violation in GW observations., Comment: Review article; 1 figure; 1 table; comments welcome

It has become increasingly useful to answer questions in gravitational-wave astronomy using transdimensional models where the number of free parameters can be varied depending on the complexity required to fit the data. Given the growing interest in transdimensional inference, we introduce a new package for the Bayesian inference Library (Bilby) called tBilby. The tBilby package allows users to set up transdimensional inference calculations using the existing Bilby architecture with off-the-shelf nested samplers and/or Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms. Transdimensional models are particularly helpful when we seek to test theoretically uncertain predictions described by phenomenological models. For example, bursts of gravitational waves can be modelled using a superposition of N wavelets where N is itself a free parameter. Short pulses are modelled with small values of N whereas longer, more complicated signals are represented with a large number of wavelets stitched together. Other transdimensional models have found use describing instrumental noise and the population properties of gravitational-wave sources. We provide a few demonstrations of tBilby, including fitting the gravitational-wave signal GW150914 with a superposition of N sine-Gaussian wavelets. We outline our plans to further develop the tbilby code suite for a broader range of transdimensional problems., Comment: 12 pages, 7 figures

Gravitational-wave observations provide the unique opportunity of studying black hole formation channels and histories -- but only if we can identify their origin. One such formation mechanism is the dynamical synthesis of black hole binaries in dense stellar systems. Given the expected isotropic distribution of component spins of binary black hole in gas-free dynamical environments, the presence of anti-aligned or in-plane spins with respect to the orbital angular momentum is considered a tell-tale sign of a merger's dynamical origin. Even in the scenario where birth spins of black holes are low, hierarchical mergers attain large component spins due to the orbital angular momentum of the prior merger. However, measuring such spin configurations is difficult. Here, we quantify the efficacy of the spin parameters encoding aligned-spin ($\chi_{\rm eff}$) and in-plane spin ($\chi_{\rm p}$) at classifying such hierarchical systems. Using Monte Carlo cluster simulations to generate a realistic distribution of hierarchical merger parameters from globular clusters, we can infer mergers' $\chi_{\rm eff}$ and $\chi_{rm p}$. The cluster populations are simulated using Advanced LIGO-Virgo sensitivity during the detector network's third observing period and projections for design sensitivity. Using a "likelihood-ratio"-based statistic, we find that $\sim2\%$ of the recovered population by the current gravitational-wave detector network has a statistically significant $\chi_{\rm p}$ measurement, whereas no $\chi_{\rm eff}$ measurement was capable of confidently determining a system to be anti-aligned with the orbital angular momentum at current detector sensitivities. These results indicate that measuring spin-precession through $\chi_{\rm p}$ is a more detectable signature of a hierarchical mergers and dynamical formation than anti-aligned spins., Comment: 10 pages, 2 figures. If you would like to give us comments, just go ahead now

Tests of general relativity with gravitational wave observations from merging compact binaries continue to confirm Einstein's theory of gravity with increasing precision. However, these tests have so far only been applied to signals that were first confidently detected by matched-filter searches assuming general relativity templates. This raises the question of selection biases: what is the largest deviation from general relativity that current searches can detect, and are current constraints on such deviations necessarily narrow because they are based on signals that were detected by templated searches in the first place? In this paper, we estimate the impact of selection effects for tests of the inspiral phase evolution of compact binary signals with a simplified version of the GstLAL search pipeline. We find that selection biases affect the search for very large values of the deviation parameters, much larger than the constraints implied by the detected signals. Therefore, combined population constraints from confidently detected events are mostly unaffected by selection biases, with the largest effect being a broadening at the $\sim10$ % level for the $-1$PN term. These findings suggest that current population constraints on the inspiral phase are robust without factoring in selection biases. Our study does not rule out a disjoint, undetectable binary population with large deviations from general relativity, or stronger selection effects in other tests or search procedures.

Most tests of general relativity with gravitational-wave observations rely on inferring the degree to which a signal deviates from general relativity in conjunction with the astrophysical parameters of its source, such as the component masses and spins of a compact binary. Due to features of the signal, measurements of these deviations are often highly correlated with the properties of astrophysical sources. As a consequence, prior assumptions about astrophysical parameters will generally affect the inferred magnitude of the deviations. Incorporating information about the underlying astrophysical population is necessary to avoid biases in the inference of deviations from general relativity. Current tests assume that the astrophysical population follows an unrealistic fiducial prior chosen to ease sampling of the posterior -- for example, a prior flat in component masses -- which is is inconsistent with both astrophysical expectations and the distribution inferred from observations. We propose a framework for fortifying tests of general relativity by simultaneously inferring the astrophysical population using a catalog of detections. Although this method applies broadly, we demonstrate it concretely on massive graviton constraints and parameterized tests of deviations to the post-Newtonian phase coefficients. Using observations from LIGO-Virgo-KAGRA's third observing run, we show that concurrent inference of the astrophysical distribution strengthens constraints and improves overall consistency with general relativity. We provide updated constraints on deviations from the theory, finding that, upon modeling the astrophysical population, the 90\%-credible upper limit on the mass of the graviton improves by $25\%$ to $m_g \leq 9.6 \times 10^{-24}\, \mathrm{eV}/c^2$ and the inferred population-level post-Newtonian deviations move ${\sim} 0.4 \sigma$ closer to zero., Comment: 20 pages, 11 figures

How many gravitational-wave observations from double compact object mergers have we seen to date? This seemingly simple question surprisingly yields a somewhat ambiguous answer that depends on the chosen data-analysis pipeline, detection threshold and other underlying assumptions. To illustrate this we provide visualizations of the number of existing detections from double compact object mergers by the end of the third observing run (O3) based on recent results from the literature. Additionally, we visualize the expected number of observations from future-generation detectors, highlighting the possibility of up to millions of detections per year by the time next-generation ground-based detectors like Cosmic Explorer and Einstein Telescope come online. We present a publicly available code that highlights the exponential growth in gravitational-wave observations in the coming decades and the exciting prospects of gravitational-wave (astro)physics., Comment: v1 was 1 April ArXiv paper, now accepted in ApJS, See http://www.broekgaarden.nl/floor/wordpress/elementor-967/ for GW videos

Hierarchical Bayesian inference is an essential tool for studying the population properties of compact binaries with gravitational waves. The basic premise is to infer the unknown prior distribution of binary black hole and/or neutron star parameters such component masses, spin vectors, and redshift. These distributions shed light on the fate of massive stars, how and where binaries are assembled, and the evolution of the Universe over cosmic time. Hierarchical analyses model the binary black hole population using a prior distribution conditioned on hyper-parameters, which are inferred from the data. However, a misspecified model can lead to faulty astrophysical inferences. In this paper we answer the question: given some data, which prior distribution--from the set of all possible prior distributions--produces the largest possible population likelihood? This distribution (which is not a true prior) is $\pistroke$ (pronounced "pi stroke"), and the associated \textit{maximum population likelihood} is $\Lstroke$ (pronounced "L stroke"). The structure of $\pistroke$ is a linear superposition of delta functions, a result which follows from Carath{\'e}odory's theorem. We show how $\pistroke$ and $\Lstroke$ can be used for model exploration/criticism. We apply this $\Lstroke$ formalism to study the population of binary black hole mergers observed in LIGO--Virgo--KAGRA's third Gravitational-Wave Transient Catalog. Based on our results, we discuss possible improvements for gravitational-wave population models., Comment: 20 pages, 9 figures

Measurement of spin-precession in black hole binary mergers observed with gravitational waves is an exciting milestone as it relates to both general relativistic dynamics and astrophysical binary formation scenarios. In this study, we revisit the evidence for spin-precession in GW200129 and localize its origin to data in LIGO Livingston in the 20--50\,Hz frequency range where the signal amplitude is lower than expected from a non-precessing binary given all the other data. These data are subject to known data quality issues as a glitch was subtracted from the detector's strain data. The lack of evidence for spin-precession in LIGO Hanford leads to a noticeable inconsistency between the inferred binary mass ratio and precessing spin in the two LIGO detectors, something not expected from solely different Gaussian noise realizations. We revisit the LIGO Livingston glitch mitigation and show that the difference between a spin-precessing and a non-precessing interpretation for GW200129 is smaller than the statistical and systematic uncertainty of the glitch subtraction, finding that the support for spin-precession depends sensitively on the glitch modeling. We also investigate the signal-to-noise ratio $\sim7$ trigger in the less sensitive Virgo detector. Though not influencing the spin-precession studies, the Virgo trigger is grossly inconsistent with the ones in LIGO Hanford and LIGO Livingston as it points to a much heavier system. We interpret the Virgo data in the context of further data quality issues. While our results do not disprove the presence of spin-precession in GW200129, we argue that any such inference is contingent upon the statistical and systematic uncertainty of the glitch mitigation. Our study highlights the role of data quality investigations when inferring subtle effects such as spin-precession for short signals such as the ones produced by high-mass systems., Comment: 17 pages, 14 figures, 2 tables. Data release: https://zenodo.org/record/7259655

The general-relativistic phenomenon of spin-induced orbital precession has not yet been observed in strong-field gravity. Gravitational-wave observations of binary black holes (BBHs) are prime candidates, since we expect the astrophysical binary population to contain precessing binaries. Imprints of precession have been investigated in several signals, but no definitive identification of orbital precession has been reported in any one of the 84 BBH observations to date by the Advanced LIGO and Virgo detectors. Here we report the measurement of strong-field precession in the LIGO-Virgo-Kagra (LVK) gravitational-wave signal GW200129. The binary's orbit precesses at a rate ten orders of magnitude faster than previous weak-field measurements from binary pulsars. We also find that the primary black hole is likely highly spinning. According to current binary population estimates a GW200129-like signal is extremely unlikely, and therefore presents a direct challenge to many current binary formation models., Comment: 16 pages, 6 figures. Update to match published version

The gravitational radiation from the ringdown of a binary black hole merger is described by the solution of the Teukolsky equation, which predicts both the temporal dependence and the angular distribution of the emission. Many studies have explored the temporal feature of the ringdown wave through black hole spectroscopy. In this work, we further study the spatial distribution, by introducing a global fitting procedure over both temporal and spatial dependences, to propose a more complete test of General Relativity. We show that spin-weighted spheroidal harmonics are the better representation of the ringdown angular emission patterns compared to spin-weighted spherical harmonics. The differences are distinguishable in numerical relativity waveforms. We also study the correlation between progenitor binary properties and the excitation of quasinormal modes, including higher-order angular modes, overtones, prograde and retrograde modes. Specifically, we show that the excitation of retrograde modes is dominant when the remnant spin is anti-aligned with the binary orbital angular momentum. This study seeks to provide an analytical strategy and inspire the future development of ringdown test using real gravitational wave events., Comment: 35 pages (17 in the main text), 25 figures (13 in the main text)

Ultralight bosons are a proposed solution to outstanding problems in cosmology and particle physics: they provide a dark-matter candidate while potentially explaining the strong charge-parity problem. If they exist, ultralight bosons can interact with black holes through the superradiant instability. In this work we explore the consequences of this instability on the evolution of hierarchical black holes within dense stellar clusters. By reducing the spin of individual black holes, superradiance reduce the recoil velocity of merging binary black holes, which, in turn, increases the retention fraction of hierarchical merger remnants. We show that the existence of ultralight bosons with mass $ 2\times10^{-14}\lesssim \mu/\textrm{eV} \lesssim2\times10^{-13}$ would lead to an increased rate of hierarchical black hole mergers in nuclear star clusters. An ultralight boson in this energy range would result in up to $\approx60\%$ more present-day nuclear star clusters supporting hierarchical growth. The presence of an ultralight boson can also double the rate of intermediate mass black hole mergers to $\approx0.08$\,Gpc$^{-3}$\,yr$^{-1}$ in the local Universe. These results imply that a select range of ultralight boson mass can have far-reaching consequences for the population of black holes in dense stellar environments. Future studies into black hole cluster populations and the spin distribution of hierarchically formed black holes will test this scenario., Comment: 20 pages, 7 figures

We present the probability distribution of the systematic errors in the most accurate, high-latency version of the reconstructed dimensionless strain $h$, at the Hanford and Livingston LIGO detectors, used for gravitational-wave astrophysical analysis, including parameter estimation, in the last five months of the third observing run (O3B). This work extends the results presented in Sun et. al (2020) [1] for the first six months of the third observing run (O3A). The complex-valued, frequency-dependent, and slowly time-varying systematic error (excursion from unity magnitude and zero phase) in O3B generally remains at a consistent level as in O3A, yet changes of detector configurations in O3B have introduced a non-negligible change in the frequency dependence of the error, leading to larger excursions from unity at some frequencies and/or during some observational periods; in some other periods the excursions are smaller than those in O3A. For O3B, the upper limit on the systematic error and associated uncertainty is 11.29% in magnitude and 9.18 deg in phase (68% confidence interval) in the most sensitive frequency band 20-2000 Hz. The systematic error alone is estimated at levels of < 2% in magnitude and $\lesssim 4$ deg in phase. These errors and uncertainties are dominated by the imperfect modeling of the frequency dependence of the detector response functions rather than the uncertainty in the absolute reference, the photon calibrators.

Small, highly absorbing points are randomly present on the surfaces of the main interferometer optics in Advanced LIGO. The resulting nano-meter scale thermo-elastic deformations and substrate lenses from these micron-scale absorbers significantly reduces the sensitivity of the interferometer directly though a reduction in the power-recycling gain and indirect interactions with the feedback control system. We review the expected surface deformation from point absorbers and provide a pedagogical description of the impact on power build-up in second generation gravitational wave detectors (dual-recycled Fabry-Perot Michelson interferometers). This analysis predicts that the power-dependent reduction in interferometer performance will significantly degrade maximum stored power by up to 50% and hence, limit GW sensitivity, but suggests system wide corrections that can be implemented in current and future GW detectors. This is particularly pressing given that future GW detectors call for an order of magnitude more stored power than currently used in Advanced LIGO in Observing Run 3. We briefly review strategies to mitigate the effects of point absorbers in current and future GW wave detectors to maximize the success of these enterprises., Comment: 49 pages, 16 figures. -V2: typographical errors in equations B9 and B10 were corrected (stray exponent of "h" was removed). Caption of Figure 9 was corrected to indicate that 40mW was used for absorption in the model, not 10mW as incorrectly indicated in V1

In General Relativity, the spacetimes of black holes have three fundamental properties: (i) they are the same, to lowest order in spin, as the metrics of stellar objects; (ii) they are independent of mass, when expressed in geometric units; and (iii) they are described by the Kerr metric. In this paper, we quantify the upper bounds on potential black-hole metric deviations imposed by observations of black-hole shadows and of binary black-hole inspirals in order to explore the current experimental limits on possible violations of the last two predictions. We find that both types of experiments provide correlated constraints on deviation parameters that are primarily in the tt-components of the spacetimes, when expressed in areal coordinates. We conclude that, currently, there is no evidence for a deviations from the Kerr metric across the 8 orders of magnitudes in masses and 16 orders in curvatures spanned by the two types of black holes. Moreover, because of the particular masses of black holes in the current sample of gravitational-wave sources, the correlations imposed by the two experiments are aligned and of similar magnitudes when expressed in terms of the far field, post-Newtonian predictions of the metrics. If a future coalescing black-hole binary with two low-mass (e.g., ~3 Msun) components is discovered, the degeneracy between the deviation parameters can be broken by combining the inspiral constraints with those from the black-hole shadow measurements., Comment: Physical Review D, submitted

We study the population properties of merging binary black holes in the second LIGO--Virgo Gravitational-Wave Transient Catalog assuming they were all formed dynamically in gravitationally bound clusters. Using a phenomenological population model, we infer the mass and spin distribution of first-generation black holes, while self-consistently accounting for hierarchical mergers. Considering a range of cluster masses, we see compelling evidence for hierarchical mergers in clusters with escape velocities $\gtrsim 100~\mathrm{km\,s^{-1}}$. For our most probable cluster mass, we find that the catalog contains at least one second-generation merger with $99\%$ credibility. We find that the hierarchical model is preferred over an alternative model with no hierarchical mergers (Bayes factor $\mathcal{B} > 1400$) and that GW190521 is favored to contain two second-generation black holes with odds $\mathcal{O}>700$, and GW190519, GW190602, GW190620, and GW190706 are mixed-generation binaries with $\mathcal{O} > 10$. However, our results depend strongly on the cluster escape velocity, with more modest evidence for hierarchical mergers when the escape velocity is $\lesssim 100~\mathrm{km\,s^{-1}}$. Assuming that all binary black holes are formed dynamically in globular clusters with escape velocities on the order of tens of $\mathrm{km\,s^{-1}}$, GW190519 and GW190521 are favored to include a second-generation black hole with odds $\mathcal{O}>1$. In this case, we find that $99\%$ of black holes from the inferred total population have masses that are less than $49\,M_{\odot}$, and that this constraint is robust to our choice of prior on the maximum black hole mass., Comment: 15 pages, 11 figures, 1 appendix

We carry out astrophysical inference for compact binary merger events in LIGO-Virgo's first gravitational-wave transient catalog (GWTC-1) using a physically motivated calibration model. We demonstrate that importance sampling can be used to reduce the cost of what would otherwise be a computationally challenging analysis. We show that including the physical estimate for the calibration error distribution has negligible impact on the inference of parameters for the events in GWTC-1. Studying a simulated signal with matched filter signal-to-noise ratio $\text{SNR}=200$, we project that a calibration error estimate typical of GWTC-1 is likely to be negligible for the current generation of gravitational-wave detectors. We argue that other sources of systematic error---from waveforms, prior distributions, and noise modelling---are likely to be more important. Finally, using the events in GWTC-1 as standard sirens, we infer an astrophysically-informed improvement on the estimate of the calibration error in the LIGO interferometers., Comment: 11 pages, 3 figures

The standard model of cosmology is underpinned by the assumption of the statistical isotropy of the Universe. Observations of the cosmic microwave background, galaxy distributions, and supernovae, among other media, support the assumption of isotropy at scales $\gtrsim 100$\,Mpc. The recent detections of gravitational waves from merging stellar-mass binary black holes provide a new probe of anisotropy; complementary and independent of all other probes of the matter distribution in the Universe. We present an analysis using a spherical harmonic model to determine the level of anisotropy in the first LIGO/Virgo transient catalog. We find that the ten binary black hole mergers within the first transient catalog are consistent with an isotropic distribution. We carry out a study of simulated events to assess the prospects for future probes of anisotropy. Within a single year of operation, third-generation gravitational-wave observatories will probe anisotropies with an angular scale of $\sim36^\circ$ at the level of $\lesssim0.1\%$., Comment: 13 pages, 9 figures Updated reviews and minor typos

The raw outputs of the detectors within the Advanced Laser Interferometer Gravitational-Wave Observatory need to be calibrated in order to produce the estimate of the dimensionless strain used for astrophysical analyses. The two detectors have been upgraded since the second observing run and finished the year-long third observing run. Understanding, accounting, and/or compensating for the complex-valued response of each part of the upgraded detectors improves the overall accuracy of the estimated detector response to gravitational waves. We describe improved understanding and methods used to quantify the response of each detector, with a dedicated effort to define all places where systematic error plays a role. We use the detectors as they stand in the first half (six months) of the third observing run to demonstrate how each identified systematic error impacts the estimated strain and constrain the statistical uncertainty therein. For this time period, we estimate the upper limit on systematic error and associated uncertainty to be $< 7\%$ in magnitude and $< 4$ deg in phase ($68\%$ confidence interval) in the most sensitive frequency band 20-2000 Hz. The systematic error alone is estimated at levels of $< 2\%$ in magnitude and $< 2$ deg in phase.

The gravitational waveform of a merging stellar-mass binary is described at leading order by a quadrupolar mode. However, the complete waveform includes higher-order modes, which encode valuable information not accessible from the leading-order mode alone. Despite this, the majority of astrophysical inferences so far obtained with observations of gravitational waves employ only the leading order mode because calculations with higher-order modes are often computationally challenging. We show how to efficiently incorporate higher-order modes into astrophysical inference calculations with a two step procedure. First, we carry out Bayesian parameter estimation using a computationally cheap leading-order-mode waveform, which provides an initial estimate of binary parameters. Second, we weight the initial estimate using higher-order mode waveforms in order to fold in the extra information from the full waveform. We use mock data to demonstrate the effectiveness of this method. We apply the method to each binary black hole event in the first gravitational-wave transient catalog GWTC-1 to obtain posterior distributions and Bayesian evidence with higher-order modes. Performing Bayesian model selection on the events in GWTC-1, we find only a weak preference for waveforms with higher order modes. We discuss how this method can be generalized to a variety of other applications., Comment: 13 pages, 13 figures

Bayesian parameter estimation is fast becoming the language of gravitational-wave astronomy. It is the method by which gravitational-wave data is used to infer the sources' astrophysical properties. We introduce a user-friendly Bayesian inference library for gravitational-wave astronomy, Bilby. This python code provides expert-level parameter estimation infrastructure with straightforward syntax and tools that facilitate use by beginners. It allows users to perform accurate and reliable gravitational-wave parameter estimation on both real, freely-available data from LIGO/Virgo, and simulated data. We provide a suite of examples for the analysis of compact binary mergers and other types of signal model including supernovae and the remnants of binary neutron star mergers. These examples illustrate how to change the signal model, how to implement new likelihood functions, and how to add new detectors. Bilby has additional functionality to do population studies using hierarchical Bayesian modelling. We provide an example in which we infer the shape of the black hole mass distribution from an ensemble of observations of binary black hole mergers., Comment: Submitted for publication