Search

Altres ajuts: Spanish Consejo de Seguridad Nuclear (BOE-A-2019-311) Introduction: The detection of γ-H2AX foci in peripheral blood mononucleated cells (PBMCs) has been incorporated as an early assay for biological dosimetry. However, overdispersion in the γ-H2AX foci distribution is generally reported. In a previous study from our group, it was suggested that overdispersion could be caused by the fact that when evaluating PBMCs, different cell subtypes are analyzed, and that these could differ in their radiosensitivity. This would cause a mixture of different frequencies that would result in the overdispersion observed. Objectives: The objective of this study was to evaluate both the possible differences in the radiosensitivities of the different cell subtypes present in the PBMCs and to evaluate the distribution of γ-H2AX foci in each cell subtype. Materials and methods: Peripheral blood samples from three healthy donors were obtained and total PBMCs, and CD3+, CD4+, CD8+, CD19+, and CD56+ cells were separated. Cells were irradiated with 1 and 2 Gy and incubated at 37 °C for1, 2, 4, and 24 h. Sham-irradiated cells were also analyzed. γ-H2AX foci were detected after immunofluorescence staining and analyzed automatically using a Metafer Scanning System. For each condition, 250 nuclei were considered. Results: When the results from each donor were compared, no observable significant differences between donors were observed. When the different cell subtypes were compared, CD8+ cells showed the highest mean of γ-H2AX foci in all post-irradiation time points. The cell type that showed the lowest γ-H2AX foci frequency was CD56+. The frequencies observed in CD4+ and CD19+ cells fluctuated between CD8+ and CD56+ without any clear pattern. For all cell types evaluated, and at all post-irradiation times, overdispersion in γ-H2AX foci distribution was significant. Independent of the cell type evaluated the value of the variance was four times greater than that of the mean. Conclusion: Although different PBMC subsets studied showed different radiation sensitivity, these differences did not explain the overdispersion observed in the γ-H2AX foci distribution after exposure to IR.

Introduction: In the event of a radiation accident detecting γ-H2AX foci is being accepted as fast method for triage and dose assessment. However, due to their disappearance kinetics, published calibrations have been constructed at specific post-irradiation times. - Objectives: To develop a surface, or tridimensional, model to estimate doses at times not included in the calibration analysis, and to validate it. - Materials and methods: Calibration data was obtained irradiating peripheral mononucleated cells from one donor with radiation doses ranging from 0 to 3 Gy, and γ -H2AX foci were detected microscopically using a semi-automatic method, at different post-irradiation times from 0.5 to 24 h. For validation, in addition to the above-mentioned donor, blood samples from another donor were also used. Validation was done within the range of doses and post-irradiation times used in the calibration. - Results: The calibration data clearly shows that at each analyzed time, the γ-H2AX foci frequency increases as dose increases, and for each dose this frequency decreases with post-irradiation time. The γ-H2AX foci nucleus distribution was clearly overdispersed, for this reason to obtain bidimensional and tridimensional dose-effect relationships no probability distribution was assumed, and linear and non-linear least squares weighted regression was used. In the two validation exercises for most evaluated samples, the 95% confidence limits of the estimated dose were between ±0.5 Gy of the real dose. No major differences were observed between donors. - Conclusion: In case of a suspected overexposure to radiation, the surface model here presented allows a correct dose estimation using γ-H2AX foci as biomarker. The advantage of this surface model is that it can be used at any post-irradiation time, in our model between 0.5 and 24 h.

Background The main goal of this work is to estimate the actual number of cases of COVID-19 in Spain in the period 31 January 2020 to 01 June 2020 by Autonomous Communities. Based on these estimates, this work allows us to accurately re-estimate the lethality of the disease in Spain, taking into account unreported cases. Methods A hierarchical Bayesian model recently proposed in the literature has been adapted to model the actual number of COVID-19 cases in Spain. Results The results of this work show that the real load of COVID-19 in Spain in the period considered is well above the data registered by the public health system. Specifically, the model estimates show that, cumulatively until 1 June 2020, there were 2 425 930 cases of COVID-19 in Spain with characteristics similar to those reported (95% credibility interval: 2 148 261–2 813 864), from which were actually registered only 518 664. Conclusions Considering the results obtained from the second wave of the Spanish seroprevalence study, which estimates 2 350 324 cases of COVID-19 produced in Spain, in the period of time considered, it can be seen that the estimates provided by the model are quite good. This work clearly shows the key importance of having good quality data to optimize decision-making in the critical context of dealing with a pandemic.

To predict the health effects of accidental or therapeutic radiation exposure, one must estimate the radiation dose that person received. A well-known ionising radiation biomarker, phosphorylated [Formula: see text]-H2AX protein, is used to evaluate cell damage and is thus suitable for the dose estimation process. In this paper, we present new Bayesian methods that, in contrast to approaches where estimation is carried out at predetermined post-irradiation times, allow for uncertainty regarding the time since radiation exposure and, as a result, produce more precise results. We also use the Laplace approximation method, which drastically cuts down on the time needed to get results. Real data are used to illustrate the methods, and analyses indicate that the models might be a practical choice for the [Formula: see text]-H2AX biomarker dose estimation process.

Common count distributions, such as the Poisson (binomial) distribution for unbounded (bounded) counts considered here, can be characterized by appropriate Stein identities. These identities, in turn, might be utilized to define a corresponding goodness-of-fit (GoF) test, the test statistic of which involves the computation of weighted means for a user-selected weight function f. Here, the choice of f should be done with respect to the relevant alternative scenario, as it will have great impact on the GoF-test's performance. We derive the asymptotics of both the Poisson and binomial Stein-type GoF-statistic for general count distributions (we also briefly consider the negative-binomial case), such that the asymptotic power is easily computed for arbitrary alternatives. This allows for an efficient implementation of optimal Stein tests, that is, which are most powerful within a given class

Altres ajuts: acords transformatius de la UAB Open Access Funding provided by Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona. This work was partially funded by the grants RTI2018-096072-B-I00 and PID2019-104830RB-I00/AEI DOI:10.13039/501100011033 from the Spanish Ministry of Science, Innovation and Universities, and the Severo Ochoa and María de Maeztu Program for Centers and Units of Excellence in R &D (CEX2020-001084-M) from the Spanish Research Agency. The aim of the current study is to analyze the effects of red and yellow cards on the scoring rate in elite soccer. The sample was composed of 1826 matches in the top five European leagues. All events were structured in 5-min intervals and were analyzed by means of a Generalized Linear Mixed Model with Poisson distribution, considering the presence of correlated data, where the dependent variable is represented by scoring rate. Team strength and home advantage were considered implicitly by means of a transformation of the betting odds for each game. The model also took into account the goal difference and time evolution. Overall, we found that after a sending off, each team's scoring rate changes significantly, damaging the penalised team and favouring its opponent. When the player who is sent off belongs to the Away team, the impact of a red card is more or less maintained over time intervals. The red card effect, on the other hand, tends to fade over time when the affected team is stronger. The relative difference in scoring rates is also affected by the goal difference and the difference in booked players, being slightly lower for the team going ahead if it has more booked players. Our approach allows estimating the expected cumulative soring rate through time for various red card scenarios. Particularly if a red card is given with 30 min of remaining time, the expected impact is 0.39 goals if the guilty player is on the visiting team and 0.50 if he plays for the home team. Coaches and analysts could use this information to establish objectives for players and teams in training and matches and to be prepared for these very different scenarios of numerical superiority or inferiority.

To predict the health effects of accidental or therapeutic radiation exposure, one must estimate the radiation dose that person received. A well-known ionising radiation biomarker, phosphorylated $$\gamma $$ γ -H2AX protein, is used to evaluate cell damage and is thus suitable for the dose estimation process. In this paper, we present new Bayesian methods that, in contrast to approaches where estimation is carried out at predetermined post-irradiation times, allow for uncertainty regarding the time since radiation exposure and, as a result, produce more precise results. We also use the Laplace approximation method, which drastically cuts down on the time needed to get results. Real data are used to illustrate the methods, and analyses indicate that the models might be a practical choice for the $$\gamma $$ γ -H2AX biomarker dose estimation process.

A recent method for estimating a lower bound of the population size in capture-recapture samples is studied. Specifically, some asymptotic properties, such as strong consistency and asymptotic normality, are provided. The introduced estimator is based on the empirical probability generating function (pgf) of the observed data, and it is consistent for count distributions having a log-convex pgf ( LC -class). This is a large family that includes mixed and compound Poisson distributions, and their independent sums and finite mixtures as well. The finite-sample performance of the lower bound estimator is assessed via simulation showing a better behavior than some close competitors. Several examples of application are also analyzed and discussed.

1. Zeros (i.e. events that do not happen) are the source of two common phenomena in count data: overdispersion and zero-inflation. Zeros have multiple origins in a dataset: false zeros occur due to errors in the experimental design or the observer; structural zeros are related to the ecological or evolutionary restrictions of the system under study; and random zeros are the result of the sampling variability. Identifying the type of zeros and their relation with overdispersion and/or zero inflation is key to select the most appropriate statistical model. 2. We first introduce the dispersion and zero inflation indeces and review the theory of the Zero-inflated (ZI) models and the use of the score tests to assess overdispersion and zero inflation over a model. Then, we present the following protocol to assist with the analysis of count data: Step 1) classify the zeros and minimize the presence of false zeros; Step 2) identify suitable covariates; Step 3) test the data for overdispersion and zero-inflation; and Step 4) choose the most adequate model based on the results of step 3 and use score tests to determine whether more complex models should be implemented. 3. We applied the recommended protocol on a real dataset on plant-herbivore interactions to evaluate the suitability of six different models (Poisson, NB and their zero-inflated versions –ZIP, ZINB–) in the light of overdispersion and zero inflation. Finally, we discuss the consequences of adjusting suboptimal models. 4. Our data was overdispersed and zero-inflated, and the ZINB was the model with the best fit, as predicted. Ignoring overdispersion and/or zero inflation during data analyses caused biased estimates of the statistical parameters and serious errors in the interpretation of the results. Our results are a clear example on how the conclusions of an ecological hypothesis can change depending on the model applied. Understanding of how zeros arise in count data, for example identifying the potential sources of structural zeros, is essential to select the best statistical design. A good model not only fits the data correctly but also takes into account the idiosyncrasies of the biological system under study.

Biological dosimetry based on chromosome aberration scoring in peripheral blood lymphocytes enables timely assessment of the ionizing radiation dose absorbed by an individual. Here, new Bayesian-type count data inverse regression methods are introduced for situations where responses are Poisson or two-parameter compound Poisson distributed. Our Poisson models are calculated in a closed form, by means of Hermite and negative binomial (NB) distributions. For compound Poisson responses, complete and simplified models are provided. The simplified models are also expressible in a closed form and involve the use of compound Hermite and compound NB distributions. Three examples of applications are given that demonstrate the usefulness of these methodologies in cytogenetic radiation biodosimetry and in radiotherapy. We provide R and SAS codes which reproduce these examples.

Biological dosimetry, that is the estimation of the dose of an exposure to ionizing radiation by a biological parameter, is a very important tool in cases of radiation accidents. The score of dicentric chromosomes, considered to be the most accurate method for biological dosimetry, for low LET radiation and up to 5 Gy, fits very well to a linear-quadratic model of dose-effect curve assuming the Poisson distribution. The accuracy of this estimation raises difficulties for doses over 5 Gy, the highest dose of the majority of dose-effect curves used in biological dosimetry. At doses over 5 Gy most cells show difficulties in reaching mitosis and cannot be used to score dicentric chromosomes. In the present study with the treatment of lymphocyte cultures with caffeine and the standardization of the culture time, metaphases for doses up to 25 Gy have been analyzed. Here we present a new model for biological dosimetry, which includes a Gompertz-type function as the dose response, and also takes into account the underdispersion of aberration-among-cell distribution. The new model allows the estimation of doses of exposures to ionizing radiation of up to 25 Gy. Moreover, the model is more effective in estimating whole and partial body exposures than the classical method based on linear and linear-quadratic functions, suggesting their effectiveness and great potential to be used after high dose exposures of radiation.

The main goal of this work is to present a new model able to deal with potentially misreported continuous time series. The proposed model is able to handle the autocorrelation structure in continuous time series data, which might be partially or totally underreported or overreported. Its performance is illustrated through a comprehensive simulation study considering several autocorrelation structures and three real data applications on human papillomavirus incidence in Girona (Catalonia, Spain) and Covid-19 incidence in two regions with very different circumstances: the early days of the epidemic in the Chinese region of Heilongjiang and the most current data from Catalonia.

It is well known that people deviate from randomness as they attempt to mentally generate head–tail sequences as randomly as possible. This deviation from randomness is quantified by an excess of repetitions or alternations between successive responses more than would be expected by chance. We conducted an experiment in which a sample of students was asked to mentally simulate a sequence as if it is produced by a fair coin. We propose several models based on Markov chains for analysing the dynamic of head–tail outcomes in these sequences. First, we explore observed Markov chains and suggest some practical solutions to reduce the number of parameters. However, there is a need for more sophisticated models, and in this case, we propose latent Markov models and mixture of Markov chains to analyse these head–tail sequences. A generalization of the so-called mixture transition distribution (MTD) model is also considered.

The goal in biological dosimetry is to estimate the dose of radiation that a suspected irradiated individual has received. For that, the analysis of aberrations (most commonly dicentric chromosome aberrations) in scored cells is performed and dose response calibration curves are built. In whole body irradiation (WBI) with X- and gamma-rays, the number of aberrations in samples is properly described by the Poisson distribution, although in partial body irradiation (PBI) the excess of zeros provided by the non-irradiated cells leads, for instance, to the Zero-Inflated Poisson distribution. Different methods are used to analyse the dosimetry data taking into account the distribution of the sample. In order to test the Poisson distribution against the Zero-Inflated Poisson distribution, several asymptotic and exact methods have been proposed which are focused on the dispersion of the data. In this work, we suggest an exact test for the Poisson distribution focused on the zero-inflation of the data developed by Rao and Chakravarti (Some small sample tests of significance for a Poisson distribution. Biometrics 1956; 12 : 264-82.), derived from the problems of occupancy. An approximation based on the standard Normal distribution is proposed in those cases where the computation of the exact test can be tedious. A Monte Carlo Simulation study was performed in order to estimate empirical confidence levels and powers of the exact test and other tests proposed in the literature. Different examples of applications based on in vitro data and also data recorded in several radiation accidents are presented and discussed. A Shiny application which computes the exact test and other interesting goodness-of-fit tests for the Poisson distribution is presented in order to provide them to all interested researchers.

We present some lower bounds for the probability of zero for the class of count distributions having a log-convex probability generating function, which includes compound and mixed-Poisson distributions. These lower bounds allow the construction of new non-parametric estimators of the number of unobserved zeros, which are useful for capture-recapture models, or in areas like epidemiology and literary style analysis. Some of these bounds also lead to the well-known Chao's and Turing's estimators. Several examples of application are analysed and discussed.

In this article we present a new INteger-valued AutoRegressive (INAR) model with the aim of extracting baseline patterns of cattle fallen stock registered over an 5-year period at a local scale. We introduce HINAR as a generalization of the classical Poisson-based INAR models whose innovations follow a Hermite distribution. In order to assess trends and seasonality in these time series, we fit different models with time-dependent parameters by specifying proper functions. Using real world examples, we illustrate how to estimate parameters by maximum likelihood and validate the fitted models. We also show a detailed method to forecast. Our proposed model supposes a good solution for studying discrete time series when the counts have many zeros, low counts and moderate overdispersion. This model has been applied to the analysis of fallen cattle registered at a local scale as part of the development of a veterinary syndromic surveillance system.

Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS) is a viral disease associated with a decrease in the number of born alive piglets (NBA) and an increase in the number of lost piglets (NLP) per farrowing. Under practical conditions, it is critical to assess whether a farm is suffering PRRSV recirculation in the sow herd as soon as possible. The aim of this research work was to develop a new method to detect potential PRRSV recirculation in sow production farms. Sow reproductive performance records from one farm (farm T) were used to set up the method and records from ten additional farms (farms V1 to V10) were used for validation. A conditional Poisson model of NLP on NBA was proposed to fit the data. A three-step procedure was implemented to detect potential PRRSV recirculation: (i) computation of the maximum-likelihood estimates of the expected values of NBA and NLP in a PRRSV non-recirculating scenario; (ii) calculation, for each farrowing, of the p-value associated with the probability of jointly observing deviations towards decreased NBA and increased NLP. The detection of a potential PRRSV recirculation was based on (iii) the combined p-value resulting from weighing the p-values of the last N farrowings by the chi-square-inverse method. In order to gain specificity, a displacement on the expected non-recirculating NBA and NLP values was used for tuning purposes. With this approach, two PRRSV circulating periods were detected in farm T, which were confirmed with standard laboratorial diagnostic techniques. The method was subsequently validated in farms V1 to V10, where ten PRRSV-recirculating time episodes had been diagnosed. The method proposed here was able to detect the ten PRRSV recirculations using a relatively small set of contiguous farrowings, with only two mismatched weeks, one as a false negative, in farm V1, and one as a false positive, in farm V4. It is concluded that a conditional Poisson-based model of NLP on NBA can be a useful tool for routinely detecting PRRSV recirculation in sow herds. This study was partially funded by the FEDER project with reference COMRDI16-1-0035-03.

Background Most cost-effectiveness analyses in the context of cervical cancer prevention involve the use of mathematical models to simulate HPV infection, cervical disease and prevention strategies. However, it is common for professionals who would need to perform these analyses to not be familiar with the models. This work introduces the Online Cost-Effectiveness ANalysis tool, featuring an easy-to-use web interface providing health professionals, researchers and decision makers involved in cervical cancer prevention programmes with a useful instrument to conduct complex cost-effectiveness analyses, which are becoming an essential tool as an approach for supporting decision-making that involves important trade-offs. Results The users can run cost-effectiveness evaluations of cervical cancer prevention strategies without deep knowledge of the underlying mathematical model or any programming language, obtaining the most relevant costs and health outcomes in a user-friendly format. The results provided by the tool are consistent with the existing literature. Conclusions Having such a tool will be an asset to the cervical cancer prevention community, providing researchers with an easy-to-use instrument to conduct cost-effectiveness analyses.

Summary We propose several parsimonious models for higher order Markov chains, applied to the study of municipal rating migrations in credit risk. In full parameterized Markov chain models, the number of parameters increases very rapidly as the order in the Markov chain grows and this can yield biased estimates when certain sequences of states are rare. For some processes, as in the case of credit ratings, this problem is accentuated because the transitions between distant states are unlikely (persistent transitions). We introduce the short and long persistence models and compare them with the full parameterized Markov chain, achieving a better fit with a lower number of parameters. Furthermore, downgrade momentum effects are found in the rating process, which are consistent with recent empirical findings.

The marginal distribution of count data processes rarely follows a simple Poisson model in practice. Instead, one commonly observes deviations such as overdispersion or zero inflation. To express the extend of such deviations from a Poisson model, one can compute an appropriately defined dispersion index or zero index. In this article, we develop several tests based on such indexes, including joint tests being based on an index combination. The asymptotic distribution of the resulting test statistics under the null hypothesis of a Poisson INAR(1) model is derived, and the finite-sample performance of the resulting tests is analyzed. Real data examples illustrate the application of these tests in practice.

We derive a set of recurrence relations for the calculation of the probabilities of a large class of integer-valued random variables. We show that the probability mass function can be recursively computed for random variables with a probability generating function satisfying certain functional form.

Underreporting in gender-based violence data is a worldwide problem leading to the underestimation of the magnitude of this social and public health concern. This problem deteriorates the data quality, providing poor and biased results that lead society to misunderstand the actual scope of this domestic violence issue. The present work proposes time series models for underreported counts based on a latent integer autoregressive of order 1 time series with Poisson distributed innovations and a latent underreporting binary state, that is, a first-order Markov chain. Relevant theoretical properties of the models are derived, and the moment-based and maximum-based methods are presented for parameter estimation. The new time series models are applied to the quarterly complaints of domestic violence against women recorded in some judicial districts of Galicia (Spain) between 2007 and 2017. The models allow quantifying the degree of underreporting. A comprehensive discussion is presented, studying how the frequency and intensity of underreporting in this public health concern are related to some interesting socioeconomic and health indicators of the provinces of Galicia (Spain).