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BACKGROUND: Reference intervals of thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH) and free thyroxine (FT4) are statistically defined by the 2·5-97·5th percentiles, without accounting for potential risk of clinical outcomes. We aimed to define the optimal healthy ranges of TSH and FT4 based on the risk of cardiovascular disease and mortality. METHODS: This systematic review and individual participant data (IPD) meta-analysis identified eligible prospective cohorts through the Thyroid Studies Collaboration, supplemented with a systematic search via Embase, MEDLINE (Ovid), Web of science, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, and Google Scholar from Jan 1, 2011, to Feb 12, 2017 with an updated search to Oct 13, 2022 (cohorts found in the second search were not included in the IPD). We included cohorts that collected TSH or FT4, and cardiovascular outcomes or mortality for adults (aged ≥18 years). We excluded cohorts that included solely pregnant women, individuals with overt thyroid diseases, and individuals with cardiovascular disease. We contacted the study investigators of eligible cohorts to provide IPD on demographics, TSH, FT4, thyroid peroxidase antibodies, history of cardiovascular disease and risk factors, medication use, cardiovascular disease events, cardiovascular disease mortality, and all-cause mortality. The primary outcome was a composite outcome including cardiovascular disease events (coronary heart disease, stroke, and heart failure) and all-cause mortality. Secondary outcomes were the separate assessment of cardiovascular disease events, all-cause mortality, and cardiovascular disease mortality. We performed one-step (cohort-stratified Cox models) and two-step (random-effects models) meta-analyses adjusting for age, sex, smoking, systolic blood pressure, diabetes, and total cholesterol. The study was registered with PROSPERO, CRD42017057576. FINDINGS: We identified 3935 studies, of which 53 cohorts fulfilled the inclusion criteria and 26 cohorts agreed to participate. We included IPD on 134 346 participants with a median age of 59 years (range 18-106) at baseline. There was a J-shaped association of FT4 with the composite outcome and secondary outcomes, with the 20th (median 13·5 pmol/L [IQR 11·2-13·9]) to 40th percentiles (median 14·8 pmol/L [12·3-15·0]) conveying the lowest risk. Compared with the 20-40th percentiles, the age-adjusted and sex-adjusted hazard ratio (HR) for FT4 in the 80-100th percentiles was 1·20 (95% CI 1·11-1·31) for the composite outcome, 1·34 (1·20-1·49) for all-cause mortality, 1·57 (1·31-1·89) for cardiovascular disease mortality, and 1·22 (1·11-1·33) for cardiovascular disease events. In individuals aged 70 years and older, the 10-year absolute risk of composite outcome increased over 5% for women with FT4 greater than the 85th percentile (median 17·6 pmol/L [IQR 15·0-18·3]), and men with FT4 greater than the 75th percentile (16·7 pmol/L [14·0-17·4]). Non-linear associations were identified for TSH, with the 60th (median 1·90 mIU/L [IQR 1·68-2·25]) to 80th percentiles (2·90 mIU/L [2·41-3·32]) associated with the lowest risk of cardiovascular disease and mortality. Compared with the 60-80th percentiles, the age-adjusted and sex-adjusted HR of TSH in the 0-20th percentiles was 1·07 (95% CI 1·02-1·12) for the composite outcome, 1·09 (1·05-1·14) for all-cause mortality, and 1·07 (0·99-1·16) for cardiovascular disease mortality. INTERPRETATION: There was a J-shaped association of FT4 with cardiovascular disease and mortality. Low concentrations of TSH were associated with a higher risk of all-cause mortality and cardiovascular disease mortality. The 20-40th percentiles of FT4 and the 60-80th percentiles of TSH could represent the optimal healthy ranges of thyroid function based on the risk of cardiovascular disease and mortality, with more than 5% increase of 10-year composite risk identified for FT4 greater than the 85th percentile in women and men older than 70 years. We propose a feasible approach to establish the optimal healthy ranges of thyroid function, allowing for better identification of individuals with a higher risk of thyroid-related outcomes. FUNDING: None.

ObjectiveFew prospective studies have assessed whether individuals with subclinical thyroid dysfunction are more likely to develop diabetes, with conflicting results. In this study, we conducted a systematic review of the literature and an individual participant data analysis of multiple prospective cohorts to investigate the association between subclinical thyroid dysfunction and incident diabetes.MethodsWe performed a systematic review of the literature in Medline, Embase, and the Cochrane Library from inception to February 11, 2022. A two-stage individual participant data analysis was conducted to compare participants with subclinical hypothyroidism and subclinical hyperthyroidism vs euthyroidism at baseline and the adjusted risk of developing diabetes at follow-up.ResultsAmong 61 178 adults from 18 studies, 49% were females, mean age was 58 years, and mean follow-up time was 8.2 years. At the last available follow-up, there was no association between subclinical hypothyroidism and incidence of diabetes (odds ratio (OR) = 1.02, 95% CI: 0.88-1.17, I2 = 0%) or subclinical hyperthyroidism and incidence of diabetes (OR = 1.03, 95% CI: 0.82-1.30, I2 = 0%), in age- and sex-adjusted analyses. Time-to-event analysis showed similar results (hazard ratio for subclinical hypothyroidism: 0.98, 95% CI: 0.87-1.11; hazard ratio for subclinical hyperthyroidism: 1.07, 95% CI: 0.88-1.29). The results were robust in all sub-group and sensitivity analyses.ConclusionsThis is the largest systematic review and individual participant data analysis to date investigating the prospective association between subclinical thyroid dysfunction and diabetes. We did not find an association between subclinical thyroid dysfunction and incident diabetes. Our results do not support screening patients with subclinical thyroid dysfunction for diabetes.Significance statementEvidence is conflicting regarding whether an association exists between subclinical thyroid dysfunction and incident diabetes. We therefore aimed to investigate whether individuals with subclinical thyroid dysfunction are more prone to develop diabetes in the long run as compared to euthyroid individuals. We included data from 18 international cohort studies with 61 178 adults and a mean follow-up time of 8.2 years. We did not find an association between subclinical hypothyroidism or subclinical hyperthyroidism at baseline and incident diabetes at follow-up. Our results have clinical implications as they neither support screening patients with subclinical thyroid dysfunction for diabetes nor treating them in the hope of preventing diabetes in the future.

BackgroundIn non-randomized studies (NRSs) where a continuous outcome variable (e.g., depressive symptoms) is assessed at baseline and follow-up, it is common to observe imbalance of the baseline values between the treatment/exposure group and control group. This may bias the study and consequently a meta-analysis (MA) estimate. These estimates may differ across statistical methods used to deal with this issue. Analysis of individual participant data (IPD) allows standardization of methods across studies. We aimed to identify methods used in published IPD-MAs of NRSs for continuous outcomes, and to compare different methods to account for baseline values of outcome variables in IPD-MA of NRSs using two empirical examples from the Thyroid Studies Collaboration (TSC).MethodsFor the first aim we systematically searched in MEDLINE, EMBASE, and Cochrane from inception to February 2021 to identify published IPD-MAs of NRSs that adjusted for baseline outcome measures in the analysis of continuous outcomes. For the second aim, we applied analysis of covariance (ANCOVA), change score, propensity score and the naïve approach (ignores the baseline outcome data) in IPD-MA from NRSs on the association between subclinical hyperthyroidism and depressive symptoms and renal function. We estimated the study and meta-analytic mean difference (MD) and relative standard error (SE). We used both fixed- and random-effects MA.ResultsTen of 18 (56%) of the included studies used the change score method, seven (39%) studies used ANCOVA and one the propensity score (5%). The study estimates were similar across the methods in studies in which groups were balanced at baseline with regard to outcome variables but differed in studies with baseline imbalance. In our empirical examples, ANCOVA and change score showed study results on the same direction, not the propensity score. In our applications, ANCOVA provided more precise estimates, both at study and meta-analytical level, in comparison to other methods. Heterogeneity was higher when change score was used as outcome, moderate for ANCOVA and null with the propensity score.ConclusionANCOVA provided the most precise estimates at both study and meta-analytic level and thus seems preferable in the meta-analysis of IPD from non-randomized studies. For the studies that were well-balanced between groups, change score, and ANCOVA performed similarly.

In subclinical hypothyroidism, the presence of depressive symptoms is often a reason for starting levothyroxine treatment. However, data are conflicting on the association between subclinical thyroid dysfunction and depressive symptoms. We aimed to examine the association between subclinical thyroid dysfunction and depressive symptoms in all prospective cohorts with relevant data available. We performed a systematic review of the literature from Medline, Embase, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature, and the Cochrane Library from inception to 10th May 2019. We included prospective cohorts with data on thyroid status at baseline and depressive symptoms during follow-up. The primary outcome was depressive symptoms measured at first available follow-up, expressed on the Beck's Depression Inventory (BDI) scale (range 0-63, higher values indicate more depressive symptoms, minimal clinically important difference: 5 points). We performed a two-stage individual participant data (IPD) analysis comparing participants with subclinical hypo- or hyperthyroidism versus euthyroidism, adjusting for depressive symptoms at baseline, age, sex, education, and income (PROSPERO CRD42018091627). Six cohorts met the inclusion criteria, with IPD on 23,038 participants. Their mean age was 60 years, 65% were female, 21,025 were euthyroid, 1342 had subclinical hypothyroidism and 671 subclinical hyperthyroidism. At first available follow-up [mean 8.2 (± 4.3) years], BDI scores did not differ between participants with subclinical hypothyroidism (mean difference = 0.29, 95% confidence interval =  - 0.17 to 0.76, I2 = 15.6) or subclinical hyperthyroidism (- 0.10, 95% confidence interval =  - 0.67 to 0.48, I2 = 3.2) compared to euthyroidism. This systematic review and IPD analysis of six prospective cohort studies found no clinically relevant association between subclinical thyroid dysfunction at baseline and depressive symptoms during follow-up. The results were robust in all sensitivity and subgroup analyses. Our results are in contrast with the traditional notion that subclinical thyroid dysfunction, and subclinical hypothyroidism in particular, is associated with depressive symptoms. Consequently, our results do not support the practice of prescribing levothyroxine in patients with subclinical hypothyroidism to reduce the risk of developing depressive symptoms.

IntroductionProspective cohort studies on the association between subclinical thyroid dysfunction and depressive symptoms have yielded conflicting findings, possibly because of differences in age, sex, thyroid-stimulating hormone cut-off levels or degree of baseline depressive symptoms. Analysis of individual participant data (IPD) may help clarify this association.Methods and analysisWe will conduct a systematic review and IPD meta-analysis of prospective studies on the association between subclinical thyroid dysfunction and depressive symptoms. We will identify studies through a systematic search of the literature in the Ovid Medline, Ovid Embase, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) and Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL) databases from inception to April 2019 and from the Thyroid Studies Collaboration. We will ask corresponding authors of studies that meet our inclusion criteria to collaborate by providing IPD. Our primary outcome will be depressive symptoms at the first available individual follow-up, measured on a validated scale. We will convert all the scores to the Beck Depression Inventory scale. For each cohort, we will estimate the mean difference of depressive symptoms between participants with subclinical hypothyroidism or hyperthyroidism and control adjusted for depressive symptoms at baseline. Furthermore, we will adjust our multivariable linear regression analyses for age, sex, education and income. We will pool the effect estimates of all studies in a random-effects meta-analysis. Heterogeneity will be assessed by I2. Our secondary outcomes will be depressive symptoms at a specific follow-up time, at the last available individual follow-up and incidence of depression at the first, last and at a specific follow-up time. For the binary outcome of incident depression, we will use a logistic regression model.Ethics and disseminationFormal ethical approval is not required as primary data will not be collected. Our findings will have considerable implications for patient care. We will seek to publish this systematic review and IPD meta-analysis in a high-impact clinical journal.Prospero registration numberCRD42018091627.

BackgroundChronic kidney disease (CKD) is frequently accompanied by thyroid hormone dysfunction. It is currently unclear whether these alterations are the cause or consequence of CKD. This study aimed at studying the effect of thyroid hormone alterations on renal function in cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses in individuals from all adult age groups.MethodsIndividual participant data (IPD) from 16 independent cohorts having measured thyroid stimulating hormone, free thyroxine levels and creatinine levels were included. Thyroid hormone status was defined using clinical cut-off values. Estimated glomerular filtration rates (eGFR) were calculated by means of the four-variable Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (MDRD) formula. For this IPD meta-analysis, eGFR at baseline and eGFR change during follow-up were computed by fitting linear regression models and linear mixed models in each cohort separately. Effect estimates were pooled using random effects models.ResultsA total of 72 856 individuals from 16 different cohorts were included. At baseline, individuals with overt hypothyroidism (n = 704) and subclinical hypothyroidism (n = 3356) had a average (95% confidence interval) -4.07 (-6.37 to -1.78) and -2.40 (-3.78 to -1.02) mL/min/1.73 m2 lower eGFR as compared with euthyroid subjects (n = 66 542). In (subclinical) hyperthyroid subjects (n = 2254), average eGFR was 3.01 (1.50-4.52) mL/min/1.73 m2 higher. During 329 713 patient years of follow-up, eGFR did not decline more rapidly in individuals with low thyroid function compared with individuals with normal thyroid function.ConclusionsLow thyroid function is not associated with a deterioration of renal function. The cross-sectional association may be explained by renal dysfunction causing thyroid hormone alterations.

Background Levothyroxine (LT4) is recommended to be ingested in a fasting state, 30-60 minutes before breakfast to avoid interactions with food and drugs. In clinical practice, we noticed that this instruction may be inconvenient for patients. Therefore, we aimed to evaluate patient experiences and preferences concerning the recommended fasting administration of LT4. Methods Patients using LT4 were invited to complete a questionnaire. Regression analyses were performed to identify patient characteristics associated with taking LT4 close to or together with food and/or interfering drugs, feeling burdened with postponing breakfast, and preferring nonfasting LT4 ingestion. Results Of 463 invited patients, 410 completed the questionnaire (88.6%). Of these, 76.8% was female and median age was 57 years (interquartile range: 43-67). Nearly all patients (97.3%) reported to have received instruction on fasting LT4 ingestion, but only 30% adhered to this. Nonfasting LT4 intake was associated with use of co-medication (odds ratio [OR], 2.82; 95% CI, 1.77-4.47), treatment duration >1 year (OR, 1.76; 95% CI, 1.02-3.04), and male sex (OR, 1.67; 95% CI, 1.03-2.70). Approximately half of the patients reported being burdened with postponing breakfast and the majority (60.5%) expressed their preference for nonfasting LT4 ingestion. Interestingly, 25% omitted breakfast and 13.4% forgot their medication because of the fasting requirement. Furthermore, the majority (68.2%) of patients that used interfering drugs stated not to be instructed to separate these drugs from LT4. Conclusion This study highlights the burden associated with fasting LT4 ingestion, leading to nonadherence, irregular LT4 intake, and omitting breakfast. Given the clear preferences towards nonfasting LT4 ingestion, further research into alternative nonfasting administration methods is warranted. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Context Risk factors for radioactive iodine (RAI)-refractory disease in follicular (FTC) and oncocytic thyroid carcinoma (OTC) are unknown. Objective The aim of this study is to identify clinical and histopathological risk factors for RAI-refractory disease in FTC and OTC patients, facilitated by an extensive histopathological revision. Methods All adult FTC and OTC patients treated at Erasmus MC (the Netherlands) between 2000 and 2016 were retrospectively included. The 2015 American Thyroid Association guidelines were used to define RAI-refractory disease. An extensive histopathological revision was performed applying the 2022 World Health Organization Classification using PALGA, the Dutch Pathology Databank. Logistic regression was used to identify risk factors for RAI-refractory disease, stratified by histological subtype. Results Ninety FTC and 52 OTC patients were included, of whom 14 FTC (15.6%) and 22 OTC (42.3%) patients developed RAI-refractory disease over a follow-up time of 8.5 years. RAI-refractory disease occurred in OTC after fewer cycles than in FTC (2.0 [interquartile range (IQR): 1.0-2.0] vs 2.5 [IQR: 2.0-3.75]), and it substantially decreased 10-year disease-specific survival, especially in OTC (46.4%; FTC 85.7%). In FTC, risk factors were higher age at diagnosis, pT3/pT4 stage, N1 stage, widely invasive tumors, and extrathyroidal extension. N1 stage and M1 stage were the strongest risk factors in OTC, rather than histopathological characteristics of the primary tumor. Conclusion To our knowledge, this is the first study that correlates clinical and histopathological risk factors with RAI-refractory disease in FTC and OTC, facilitated by a histopathological revision. In FTC, risk factors for RAI-refractory disease were foremost histopathological characteristics of the primary tumor, whereas in OTC presentation with lymph node and distant metastasis was associated with RAI-refractory disease. Our data can help clinical decision-making, particularly in patients at risk for RAI-refractory disease. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Recurrence is a key outcome to evaluate the treatment effect of differentiated thyroid carcinoma (DTC). However, no consistent definition of recurrence is available in current literature or international guidelines. Therefore, the primary aim of this systematic review was to delineate the definitions of recurrence of DTC, categorized by total thyroidectomy with radioactive iodine ablation (RAI), total thyroidectomy without RAI and lobectomy, to assess if there is a generally accepted definition among these categories. Methods: This study adhered to the 2020 Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses statement. In December 2023, a systematic literature search in MEDLINE and EMBASE was performed for studies reporting on the recurrence of DTC, from January 2018 to December 2023. Studies that did not provide a definition were excluded. Primary outcome was the definition of recurrence of DTC. Secondary outcome was whether studies differentiated between recurrence and persistent disease. Two independent investigators screened the titles and abstracts, followed by full-text assessment and data extraction. The study protocol was registered in PROSPERO, CRD42021291753. Results: In total, 1450 studies were identified. Seventy studies met the inclusion criteria, including 69 retrospective studies and 1 randomised controlled trial (RCT). Median number of patients in the included studies was 438 (range 25–2297). In total, 17 studies (24.3%) reported on lobectomy, 4 studies (5.7%) on total thyroidectomy without RAI, and 49 studies (70.0%) with RAI. All studies defined recurrence using one or a combination of four diagnostic modalities cytology/pathology, imaging studies, thyroglobulin (-antibodies), and a predetermined minimum tumor-free time span. The most common definition of recurrence following lobectomy was cytology/pathology-proven recurrence (47.1% of this subgroup), following total thyroidectomy with RAI was cytology/pathology-proven recurrence and/or anomalies detected on imaging studies (22.4% of this subgroup). No consistent definition was found following total thyroidectomy without RAI. Nine studies (12.9%) differentiated between recurrence and persistent disease. Conclusion: Our main finding is that there is no universally accepted definition for recurrence of DTC in the current studies across any of the treatment categories. The findings of this study will provide the basis for a future, international Delphi-based proposal to establish a universally accepted definition of recurrence of DTC. A uniform definition could facilitate global discussion and enhance the assessment of treatment outcomes regarding recurrence of DTC. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

ObjectiveGuidelines for thyroid function evaluation recommend testing TSH first, then assessing fT4 only if TSH is out of the reference range (two-step), but many clinicians initially request both TSH and fT4 (one-step). Given limitations of previous studies, we aimed to compare the two-step with the one-step approach in an unselected community-dwelling study population, and develop a prediction score based on clinical parameters that could identify at-risk patients for thyroid dysfunction.DesignCross-sectional analysis of the population-based Busselton Health Study.MethodsWe compared the two-step with the one-step approach, focusing on cases that would be missed by the two-step approach, i.e. those with normal TSH, but out-of-range fT4. We used likelihood ratio tests to identify demographic and clinical parameters associated with thyroid dysfunction and developed a clinical prediction score by using a beta-coefficient based scoring method.ResultsFollowing the two-step approach, 93.0% of all 4471 participants had normal TSH and would not need further testing. The two-step approach would have missed 3.8% of all participants (169 of 4471) with a normal TSH, but a fT4 outside the reference range. In 85% (144 of 169) of these cases, fT4 fell within 2 pmol/l of fT4 reference range limits, consistent with healthy outliers. The clinical prediction score that performed best excluded only 22.5% of participants from TSH testing.ConclusionThe two-step approach may avoid measuring fT4 in as many as 93% of individuals with a very small risk of missing thyroid dysfunction. Our findings do not support the simultaneous initial measurement of both TSH and fT4.

BackgroundAtrial fibrillation (AF) is a highly prevalent disorder leading to heart failure, stroke, and death. Enhanced understanding of modifiable risk factors may yield opportunities for prevention. The risk of AF is increased in subclinical hyperthyroidism, but it is uncertain whether variations in thyroid function within the normal range or subclinical hypothyroidism are also associated with AF.MethodsWe conducted a systematic review and obtained individual participant data from prospective cohort studies that measured thyroid function at baseline and assessed incident AF. Studies were identified from MEDLINE and EMBASE databases from inception to July 27, 2016. The euthyroid state was defined as thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH) 0.45 to 4.49 mIU/L, and subclinical hypothyroidism as TSH 4.5 to 19.9 mIU/L with free thyroxine (fT4) levels within reference range. The association of TSH levels in the euthyroid and subclinical hypothyroid range with incident AF was examined by using Cox proportional hazards models. In euthyroid participants, we additionally examined the association between fT4 levels and incident AF.ResultsOf 30 085 participants from 11 cohorts (278 955 person-years of follow-up), 1958 (6.5%) had subclinical hypothyroidism and 2574 individuals (8.6%) developed AF during follow-up. TSH at baseline was not significantly associated with incident AF in euthyroid participants or those with subclinical hypothyroidism. Higher fT4 levels at baseline in euthyroid individuals were associated with increased AF risk in age- and sex-adjusted analyses (hazard ratio, 1.45; 95% confidence interval, 1.26-1.66, for the highest quartile versus the lowest quartile of fT4; P for trend ≤0.001 across quartiles). Estimates did not substantially differ after further adjustment for preexisting cardiovascular disease.ConclusionsIn euthyroid individuals, higher circulating fT4 levels, but not TSH levels, are associated with increased risk of incident AF.